On Necropotence

[Smmenen]

I asked the SCG forums what I should write about and someone suggested I write about Necropotence.   I couldn't fill a full article on the topic, but I can certainly share my thoughts here.

  Why Necropotence is Insane

Necropotence is not a terrible card.   Far from it, Necropotence is the most efficient card siphon in Vintage

In terms of Cards per mana, Ancestral is 3 for 1, Necro is about 4 to 5 for 1 and Yawgmoth's Bargain is 2.5 to 3 for 1.   In terms of mana, Yawgmoth's Bargain is about as efficient as Ancestral.  Necro blows both of them out.   

Necropotence is the most efficient viable source of card advantage in magic, period, in terms of drawing cards per mana.   

Yes, I recognize that not all card advantage is equal.   Initial card advantage is more valuable than additional card advantage.  In other words, if you already have a hundred cards in hand, drawing another isn't that relevant.   And yes, I realize that Necro and Bargain demand life.

The good news for the Vintage player is that life is the most plentiful resource in Vintage.   Trading life for card is a deal worth making.   

I've said this before: Necropotence is the inverse Psychatog.   Both are pure and fantastic siphons.    Tog turns cards to life and Necro turns life to cards.   

The only reason control decks haven't traditionally run Necropotence is that the mana cost is too steep.   Without Dark Rituals, it takes up too much space to justify its inclusion.   

The Problem with Necropotence

In December, my teammate Paul Mastriano resolved Necropotence  a number of times at SCG Roanoke but repeatedly complained about losing the game.   In my experience with Necro, my win percentage with necro has dipped very slightly, but the number of close games has risen exponentially.    This signals an important trend: Necropotence is getting weaker.

Why?

1) The Format is Accelerating.   Control decks run  FULL artifact acelleration.     I remember not too long ago when Rich Shay and other control decks didn't run Mana Vault or Lotus Petal (http://thevintagedatabase.tripod.com/id9.html).  I, of course, included both in MDG.   But even then, some Gifts players didn't run both.    See SSB which only played Vault.   There really isn't debate on the question anymore.  Everyone runs both cards.   Even worse, most control decks now run at least one Dark Ritual.    These mana accelleration in control is speeding the format up.   

A consequence of the fact that the Format is accelerating is that your margin of victory is made slimmer and slimmer with every Necro that hits after turn one.    A turn three Necropotence is virtually an unviable play in modern Vintage - it's a recipe for losing.    A turn two Necropotence, once a virtual win, is now a risky play.   The only "safe" Necro is turn one on the play.   

2) A corollary to the acceleration of the format Necro is vulnerable to early Tendrils.   All of these control decks that run all of this artifact acceleration also run Tendrils and Necro.    An early tendrils is now a very possible play to face and not easy to stop.   If you Necro for 10 it only takes 4-5 storm for a Tendrils to kill you.    It is not hard on turn two to tutor up Tendrils, Ritual, Mox, Brainstorm kill you.   

3) Necropotence is best as creating overwhelming card advantage.   Such overwhelmig strategies don't work as well as they once did.   This is partly a response to the fact that there are so many efficient answer: Extirpate, Duress, etc in the format.   This is also a consequence of the vastly increased graveyard hate since 2004.   Yawgmoths Will was generally the "A" Plan after Necroing.  Now that play is harder to pull off.  The number of T. Crypts has risen exponentially since 2003.  Also: Many players and decks prefer to win small or bit by bit.  Necropotence is not conducive to that style of play.   It demands that you win now, if at all.   You can win small with Necro, but it  leaves you exposed.   Each turn you give your opponent you incrase the risk that they can combo out or just Tendrils you for a bit.    If you don't win immediately with Necro you will be extremely exposed, thus it is an all in or nothing card. 

In sum, the speed of the format, presense of Tendrils, and "all-in" quality of Necropotencde make it worse than it has ever been.   

I've been playing Combo since 2003 and I see no way I wouldn't play Necro in combo, but I certainly understand why people don't want to take that risk.   Anything but turn one Necro is reallly a roll of the dice.   

[Gekoratel]

In addition to what Steve has said I was wondering if anyone had input on what they think the correct Necro number is for different matchups.  When I am playing against combo I am hesitant to go big with a turn 1 Necro because I fear my opponents ability to turn 1 Tendrils for 10 dmg.  In these matches I will usually only activate Necro for 7-8 life but against Fish decks or slower Control decks my Necro number is generally larger 10-13.  Also does it matter what form of combo you are playing for how big your Necro number should be?

[Moxlotus]

I usually go up to between 10-12 cards.  It all just depends on how much other goodness I have already in my hand.  If I'm sitting on double Rit, I go up to 10.  If I have nothing tood, I'll usually go up to 12.

[Machinus]

If you could win the game by drawing a card in your opening hand, would you cut it because you aren't guaranteed to win if you cast in on turn two?

Necro is the dumbest card in Long. I don't see how anyone could cut it.

[The Atog Lord]

Necropotence is an amazing card -- for only three mana, it allows you to enjoy a new hand on the next turn. However, there are limitations on those cards. Stax may be able to make your new hand useless through application of a single lock piece. Moreover, as Steve has indicated, Tendrils of Agony can turn losing ten life with Necropotence into losing the game.

There was a time, not long ago, in which losing life tended not to matter much in a Type One match. Control mirrors were about card advantage, and the number on your scorepad seldom changed until the game was, for all intents and purposes, finished. Life didn't matter. That paradigm has now undergone a drastic change. With the addition not only of Tendrils but also commonly played life-losing cards such as Fetchlands and Confidant, life has started to matter more now than ever before.

The long and short of it is that Type One decks of the modern era can do something which older Keeper decks were entirely unable to do: inflict ten or twelve damage to the opponent without going through all the effort of locking up the game.

I find it a an amazing irony that the printing of the greatest black lifegain spell of all time makes Necropotence so much worse.

By the way, Steve, I like the topic name.

[Anusien]

Necropotence also gets better with the hybrid Combo-Control strategies.  In other words, going turn 1 Ritual, Necropotence is strong, but it's even stronger to go Duress, Ritual, Necropotence (or whatever) because it can devastate the opponent.  By the same token, Necroing into Force of Will is potent.

In other words, I could see the reason for cutting Necropotence, but I still think it's an incredibly powerful card.  You're also ignoring the advantage it can give you later on.  All matches aren't determined in the first few turns, and it's relatively easy to grab Necropotence out of topdecking and just win.

[Marek]

Just like everyone has said...with the format becoming more and more fast paced....for the most part I don't see necro becoming all that viable of a card for many decks.   I believe however that it should always be run in decks like long and long variations...I debate its potential in the format in general.  Like Gekoratal said...it leaves you wide open for your opponent mini-tendrils-ing you for the win, getting down a lock piece in stax, etc.

However, I think that as a type 1 player, or atleast a good type 1 player, you need to take these chances in certain situations.  If statistically you have the better shot for the win, then go for it.  Everyone is going to lose matches even with good cards and good plays.  You have to weigh the situation and see if the risks are worth taking.  Playing ancestral recall with backup usually is a great play, but if someone has counter backup, AND misdirection backup and you give them a 3 draw that doesnt make ancestral recall a "bad" card.  You most certainly wouldn't cut it.  The same can be said about cards like draw 7s...just because your opponent *might* win because of them, most of the time the risk is worth taking.

[Implacable]

Great post!  I agree both with the initial post and the responses.  Yes, Necropotence is getting at least theoretically weaker; the fact that decks, particularly Gifts, can just win from nowhere means that missing a turn is bad.  On the other hand, the card is still blatantly ridiculous, and should never, ever be cut from Long, for the simple reason that nothing short of Bargain gets you as many cards.  It should also be noted that Necropotence is slightly stronger in PitchLong than in GrimLong; in Pitch, you can Necro into Force, which retards the effect of Time Walking your opponent.

[zeus-online]

Can't imagine cutting necropotence in a deck with 4 dark rituals and some number of cabal ritual...while its true that its only really, really good on turn 1, you still need to maximize your chances of doing something really good turn 1 in order to improve your chances of actually winning

Necropotence is also one of the more nutty Business spells, its a draw14 or something.

/Zeus

[madmanmike25]

I wouldn't play Necropotence if I only had 4 Dark Rituals in the deck.  How many Cabal Rituals are needed to maximize casting Necro 1st turn???  I'm pretty sure there is a number most people can agree on.  I guess it's at least 2, but most likely 3 Cabals.  Opinions?

While casting Necro after the first turn isn't that hot, this argument reminds me somewhat of Trinisphere in Shop decks.  If it comes down turn one, it's almost a sure win(yeah, its still possible to lose).  It's still decent on turn 2, and gets less and less effective the more turns go.  But would I cut it???  Hell no.  It's what makes Vintage the broken format that it is.  If you win game one, you can SB it out if needed, just like I would do with Necropotence if I was on the draw.

[Dralock]

If there is a better card, use that. Otherwise, Necro has had strong numbers for people who know how to use it, I don't see the problem with including it in decks.

The Meandeck Eggs deck did not include it for the first showing at a tournament, but people who used that same deck later on had it in with exellent results.

Show me a more broken play, that will completely overshadow the usefulness of necro, THEN talk about its worthlessness in the format.

[Evenpence]

Good summary Steve.  You get my stamp of approval for Necropotence analysis.

I still can't understand why anyone would want to cut the card based on risk.

Maybe it's just personal experience.  I've never lost when resolving turn 1 Necropotence.