Future Sight spoiled: Street Wraith - 4 of in every deck?

[desolutionist]

Street Wraith is always, at all times, the top card of your deck.  The only way Street Wraith is playable is if the average power level of the cards in your deck is greater than the cards that you're cutting for Wraith; the only cards that fit this criteria are lands (otherwise you should be playing a better deck), which cannot be cut.  Some people will make the argument that they can cut the 2nd bounce spell in their Gifts deck for Street Wraith, but if your metagame doesn't demand the second bounce spell, there is probably a better card than Street Wraith (i.e. xth Scroll, xth Gifts, xth Dark Ritual, etc.)

[Smmenen]

Actually, I think this card goes into alot of decks, just not every deck.   I could definitely see this card as a four of in Stax, for instance. 

[desolutionist]

I could definitely see this card as a four of in Stax, for instance. 

Any particular reason?

[Methuselahn]

So, let's say we're playing Grim Long versus Stax and you're on the play.   You fan open 7 cards and this is what you see:

Mox Emerald
Demonic Tutor
Dark Ritual
Ancestral Recall
Street Wraith
Street Wraith
Tendrils of Agony

Do you keep it?  Are you willing to risk this hand, hoping that there is a land or other mana source in the top 2 cards, knowing you're going to face Stax disruption on the next turn?

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

Counterquestion: You mulliganed to 5.You get this hand:

Mox Emerald
Demonic Tutor
Dark Ritual
Ancestral Recall
Tendrils of Agony

You know your opponent doesn't do anything relevant for the next two turns (Like drop two lands and an Isamaru). Do you keep it?

/edit: This hand in this situation is a perfect example for the harder mulliganing with Wraith, I agree.  Against Stax, the focus is so much on turn one and enough mana, it's hard even to depend on turn one land, Mox, Ancestral to give you a win, because your mana will probably be attacked next turn.

You have ~45% of a chance to find a land in your top 2 cards. This is not enough to be sure to play the Ancestral, so you mulligan and hope for something more mana-heavy. You just did an extra-mulligan in comparison to a normal deck for about half the time. (when there would have been a land). This is mitigated by the fact that this hand with a land single land is rather dangerous against Stax.
Not to mention that this hand is already a mulligan to 6 because of the Tendrils in it. I'm fine with the fact that I'll have to mulligan something like that once in a while (honestly how likely is an Ancestral/Necro-dependant hand without mana to cast it because the wretch is replacing exactly a land - there will be only one less land in the deck) if I draw into my Will/Lotus/Demonic/etc more often for a similar number of games simply because my deck is now four cards smaller. 

[Moxlotus]

Actually, I think this card goes into alot of decks, just not every deck.   I could definitely see this card as a four of in Stax, for instance. 

I would guess it wouldn't work in stax at all.  You want to have all your options in your hand so you can figure out what plan of action to take.  This is more important for stax than any other deck in the format imo. 

[Implacable]

Actually, I think this card goes into alot of decks, just not every deck.   I could definitely see this card as a four of in Stax, for instance. 

I would guess it wouldn't work in stax at all.  You want to have all your options in your hand so you can figure out what plan of action to take.  This is more important for stax than any other deck in the format imo. 

I'm not sure that I understand your statement.  Presumably, you would cycle this card before making any other plays, so how exactly would you not know all of your options?

[Methuselahn]

Actually, I think this card goes into alot of decks, just not every deck.   I could definitely see this card as a four of in Stax, for instance. 

I would guess it wouldn't work in stax at all.  You want to have all your options in your hand so you can figure out what plan of action to take.  This is more important for stax than any other deck in the format imo. 

I'm not sure that I understand your statement.  Presumably, you would cycle this card before making any other plays, so how exactly would you not know all of your options?

Well, as I was trying to illustrate, the Street Wraiths are wild cards in your opening draw.  Do you mulligan your stax hand or do you cycle those Wraiths, hoping to dig into a (Workshop).

[Smmenen]

So, let's say we're playing Grim Long versus Stax and you're on the play.   You fan open 7 cards and this is what you see:

Mox Emerald
Demonic Tutor
Dark Ritual
Ancestral Recall
Street Wraith
Street Wraith
Tendrils of Agony

Do you keep it?  Are you willing to risk this hand, hoping that there is a land or other mana source in the top 2 cards, knowing you're going to face Stax disruption on the next turn?

I don't buy that logic.    The same is true of Brainstorm even.

Do you keep this hand, playing Grim Long, against control?

Gemstone Mine
Mox Emerald
Dark Ritual
Cabal Ritual
Black Lotus
Lion's Eye Diamond
Brainstorm

??

magic is full of risks.  I don't think that the mulligan effect of Wrath will make it unviable, it will just force players to become better at evaluating mulligans.  In other words, it will increase the skill level of the format.    People will become better at evaluating the worth of an unknown additional card, that's all.

[Vegeta2711]

Anyone who has played Gro decks in Extended pretty much is used to mulliganing with 'unknown' cards in hand because of the number of cantrips they run in the deck. This is no different really, people just need to get used to it and do a little more probability analysis when using the card.

[mox apricot]

i've only skimmed this quickly, but this hting would be killer in ichorid if they didn't keep printing things too kill the deck i'd pick it back up

[Mana Duane]

It looks like an auto-include in almost every deck to me. The only possible excuse for not playing it is that you are either playing Oath or you think the life loss is a problem.
Talking about your deck being too tight is non-sense. If I sat down opposite you at a tourney and told you you could add and extra Will, Lotus, FoW and Ancestral to your deck if you took four
cards out to fit them in, I'd imagine you'd take me up on that offer. While obviously not as powerful, that is the type of effect this card is giving you.

I would be laughed at if i proposed a 64 card deck on these forums. All the reasons not to run 64 cards apply to why you should run this card.

[ErkBek]

Reasons why Street Wraith does not make decks 56 cards
1) Mulligan decisions
2) Brainstorm into street wraith sucks

Reasons to play Street Wraith
1) Free cycling lets you see more powerful cards
2) A 3/4 blocker vs. fish or SS can be devastating toward there strategy

Is there anything I'm missing here besides the life thing? (if so I'll edit my post to fit it in)


Here's how I view it. When I play magic, I take as few risks as possible, however when the return for taking certain risks outweighs the risk, I'll take the risk.

IE go for a turn 1 kill in a game 1 on the play. There is about a 70% they play FoW and about a 40% they have FoW + Blue card, thus I have a 72% chance of winning. I'm pretty sure all of us would go for it there.

When viewing opening hands I evaluate them in a similar manner. Often times we see hands that are just amazing if hit something good in our first couple draw steps. We can even play the statistics game at find that there is a 50% that we'll draw what you are looking for (usually a mana source or bomb), but often times we force ourselves to mulligan these hands. So there is a 50% chance we draw the exact car we need off the top, otherwise we instantly lose. Also, there is a 10% chance our opponent has a better hand, so we only win 40% of the time, so we mulligan.

Are we not going to still mulligan these hands b/c we have a free cycling street wraith? If you run it you'll see a lot more of these.

I view it that you are often better off playing a 4th Gifts/scroll, a 15th land, 2nd MisD, and a Dark Ritual than 4th of these because seeing those cards could make or break a hand and effect your mulligan decisions. (I picked these cards from gifts b/c that's what I'd expect to see cut, but lets not argue that)

A teammate of mine, Matt Morrison, had an interesting remark 

I'd rather play a 60 card deck at 20 life than a 56 card deck at 12

[diopter]

I'd rather play a 60 card deck at 20 life than a 56 card deck at 12

Except you almost always won't be at 12 life, because odds are you are going to be playing 1 to 2 Wraiths a game.

Street Wraith's effect is really subtle and deceptive. I've been testing a version of Long with Street Wraith, and on the surface, its effect is really underwhelming. However, over an extended period of time I have noticed that I am definitely getting more and more "lucky" hands, hands with nutty mana, a tutor, and a Pact, or hands with easy ways to win without Yawgmoth's Will.

[Jank Golem]

I'd rather play a 60 card deck at 20 life than a 56 card deck at 12

Except you almost always won't be at 12 life, because odds are you are going to be playing 1 to 2 Wraiths a game.

Street Wraith's effect is really subtle and deceptive. I've been testing a version of Long with Street Wraith, and on the surface, its effect is really underwhelming. However, over an extended period of time I have noticed that I am definitely getting more and more "lucky" hands, hands with nutty mana, a tutor, and a Pact, or hands with easy ways to win without Yawgmoth's Will.

But to have a 56 card deck, not just the potential for one, you need to be at 12 life.

Street Wraith is a lot like Fetchlands when it comes to deck thinning. For instance lets say you are playing a single colored deck with no Brainstorm, and no other way to benefit from Fetches besides their deck thinning capabilities. Fetches do not noticeably affect your chances of drawing a business spell, while they take 5% of your life total. Therefore running Fetches only for their deck thinning capabilities is bad unless you are playing a very aggressive combo deck (Goblins, Meandeck Tendrils). The exact same thing applies to Street Wraith, it is only good if you are running it in a fast aggressive combo deck. The life loss outweighs the slight increased probability of drawing a business spell. For more about the statistics of Fetchlands and deck thinning, check out this article: http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/print.asp?ID=3096

[Stamford]

Reasons why Street Wraith does not make decks 56 cards
1) Mulligan decisions
2) Brainstorm into street wraith sucks

Reasons to play Street Wraith
1) Free cycling lets you see more powerful cards
2) A 3/4 blocker vs. fish or SS can be devastating toward there strategy

Is there anything I'm missing here besides the life thing? (if so I'll edit my post to fit it in)


Here's how I view it. When I play magic, I take as few risks as possible, however when the return for taking certain risks outweighs the risk, I'll take the risk.

IE go for a turn 1 kill in a game 1 on the play. There is about a 70% they play FoW and about a 40% they have FoW + Blue card, thus I have a 72% chance of winning. I'm pretty sure all of us would go for it there.

When viewing opening hands I evaluate them in a similar manner. Often times we see hands that are just amazing if hit something good in our first couple draw steps. We can even play the statistics game at find that there is a 50% that we'll draw what you are looking for (usually a mana source or bomb), but often times we force ourselves to mulligan these hands. So there is a 50% chance we draw the exact car we need off the top, otherwise we instantly lose. Also, there is a 10% chance our opponent has a better hand, so we only win 40% of the time, so we mulligan.

Are we not going to still mulligan these hands b/c we have a free cycling street wraith? If you run it you'll see a lot more of these.

I view it that you are often better off playing a 4th Gifts/scroll, a 15th land, 2nd MisD, and a Dark Ritual than 4th of these because seeing those cards could make or break a hand and effect your mulligan decisions. (I picked these cards from gifts b/c that's what I'd expect to see cut, but lets not argue that)

A teammate of mine, Matt Morrison, had an interesting remark 

I'd rather play a 60 card deck at 20 life than a 56 card deck at 12

Aside from a few points, i generally agree with this most thought-provoking and logical post.

BS into Street Wraith may not suck if you could put back 2 cards you dont want and shuffle away with a fetchland or tutor.

as for the quote, i believe that you wont neccessarily see all 4 street wraiths in 1 game. So i would be compelled to believe its actually starting on average 17 life if you play Street Wraith.

Street Wraith's effect is really subtle and deceptive. I've been testing a version of Long with Street Wraith, and on the surface, its effect is really underwhelming. However, over an extended period of time I have noticed that I am definitely getting more and more "lucky" hands, hands with nutty mana, a tutor, and a Pact, or hands with easy ways to win without Yawgmoth's Will.

More disadvantages of Street Wraith include

Sucks with Necropotence. You are already on a small/moderate amount of life and Necro already does the job of Street Wraith.

Sucks with Yawgmoth's Bargain. Same as above. Except for the fact it sucks more.

If your Long build, be it Pitch or Grim, play those two above cards, what is your opinion/testing on their synergy with Y.Bargain and Necro then?

In my opinion, Grim Long does not need this card as its already filled to the brim with bombs. So i would not advocate this card for Grim long either.
However that remains to be seen and tournament results and intensive playtesting will show the true results in the end, therefore, i will test out this card as a 4-of before dismissing it completely in Grim long. Most likely taking out 1 Elvish Spirit Guide, 1 Duress, 1 Grim Tutor out of my 3, 1 Brainstorm/other card.

EDIT:
After reading Jank Golem's linked article on Deckthinning by Garrett Johnson,
Im influenced to think that
Theorotically, its actually a bad idea to run 4 Street Wraiths in any given deck unless its running some sort of engine that makes that kind of deckthinning significant within the first 3 turns of a Vintage game. (Eg. Ichorid will definitely use it, for the deck thinning, the Sutured Ghoul, the extra Dredge, the pitching to Unmask.)

Having a 56 card deck is entirely different from having a 60 card deck with 4 Street Wraiths.
Mainly due to starting hand reasons, life loss reasons and a bunch of other small reasons, it technically cancels out the advantages you would be gaining from the 4 Street Wraiths.

[diopter]

More disadvantages of Street Wraith include

Sucks with Necropotence. You are already on a small/moderate amount of life and Necro already does the job of Street Wraith.

Sucks with Yawgmoth's Bargain. Same as above. Except for the fact it sucks more.

If your Long build, be it Pitch or Grim, play those two above cards, what is your opinion/testing on their synergy with Y.Bargain and Necro then?

In my opinion, Grim Long does not need this card as its already filled to the brim with bombs. So i would not advocate this card for Grim long either.
However that remains to be seen and tournament results and intensive playtesting will show the true results in the end, therefore, i will test out this card as a 4-of before dismissing it completely in Grim long. Most likely taking out 1 Elvish Spirit Guide, 1 Duress, 1 Grim Tutor out of my 3, 1 Brainstorm/other card.

Street Wraith has amazing synergy with Necro and Bargain, in that it gets you to them faster. I don't particularly care how awful Street Wraith is after I resolve Necro or Bargain, because I am drawing upwards of 12 cards anyway - more than enough to get to my Rituals, my fast mana, and my tutors.

Oh, and Wraith makes disadvantage tutors in your Necro hands better, as long as you have at least 5 life (3 if you are using Mystical tutor).

Don't lose sight of Street Wraith's purpose when evaluating it - what is it supposed to do? It's supposed to substitute for your 4 worst cards. In Long, that's usually a land (slow mana source), Windfall (terrible Draw7) and 2 other cards (I cut more Draw7s, and added an additional tutor). Not all bombs are created equal - playing Street Wraith lets you play only your best bombs - Necro, Bargain, Desire, Will.

After reading Jank Golem's linked article on Deckthinning by Garrett Johnson,
Im influenced to think that
Theorotically, its actually a bad idea to run 4 Street Wraiths in any given deck unless its running some sort of engine that makes that kind of deckthinning significant within the first 3 turns of a Vintage game. (Eg. Ichorid will definitely use it, for the deck thinning, the Sutured Ghoul, the extra Dredge, the pitching to Unmask.)

Having a 56 card deck is entirely different from having a 60 card deck with 4 Street Wraiths.
Mainly due to starting hand reasons, life loss reasons and a bunch of other small reasons, it technically cancels out the advantages you would be gaining from the 4 Street Wraiths.

It's a bad idea to run Street Wraith if the life loss is relevant. Since Long is faster than most decks, the life loss is almost always irrelevant. Yes Necro and Bargain, depend on life, yes Grim Tutor makes you lose life, yes Vamp and Seal make you lose life, yes fetches make you lose life, blah blah etc. etc. - doesn't matter. I am still winning games, at a lower life total, perhaps, but I am winning more of them, and drawing my real bombs more often, and casting them more often with counter backup.

And yes, having a 56 card deck is different from a 60 card deck with Street Wraith. It's not different enough to matter.

But to have a 56 card deck, not just the potential for one, you need to be at 12 life.

False.
If all your Street Wraiths are at the bottom of your deck after shuffling, you effectively have a 56 card deck at the cost of 0 life. If they are at the top, you have a 56 card deck at the cost of 8 life. The average cost is 2-4 life.

[Jank Golem]

But to have a 56 card deck, not just the potential for one, you need to be at 12 life.

False.
If all your Street Wraiths are at the bottom of your deck after shuffling, you effectively have a 56 card deck at the cost of 0 life. If they are at the top, you have a 56 card deck at the cost of 8 life. The average cost is 2-4 life.

No, you actually have to cycle Street Wraith to gain an advantage. Every time you pay 2 life for Street Wraith, you thin your deck by one card. Street Wraith doesn't magically make your deck thinner by sitting in your library.

[Stamford]

Street Wraith has amazing synergy with Necro and Bargain, in that it gets you to them faster. I don't particularly care how awful Street Wraith is after I resolve Necro or Bargain, because I am drawing upwards of 12 cards anyway - more than enough to get to my Rituals, my fast mana, and my tutors.

Oh, and Wraith makes disadvantage tutors in your Necro hands better, as long as you have at least 5 life (3 if you are using Mystical tutor).

Don't lose sight of Street Wraith's purpose when evaluating it - what is it supposed to do? It's supposed to substitute for your 4 worst cards. In Long, that's usually a land (slow mana source), Windfall (terrible Draw7) and 2 other cards (I cut more Draw7s, and added an additional tutor). Not all bombs are created equal - playing Street Wraith lets you play only your best bombs - Necro, Bargain, Desire, Will.

I think you forgot the main purpose and intention of a Long deck.
The main idea of a Long deck, is to play bombs after bombs to eventually win the game.
The idea of Draw7s, is that you freely cast them, as there is practically no disadvantage in casting them at all.
Draw7s are used to bait out counters as your opponent will have to counter them or lose their hand.
Draw7s are used to refill and fill your hands with threats so that you can combo off with enough resources.
Draw7s are used on turn 1 to majorly punish your opponent for keeping a hand without FoW or to possibly exchange your opponent's good stax/combo hands for a possibly crappy one while you have developed your mana position. (E.g. You play 1 land, 3 moxen and a Draw7, you just had a speed boost.)

Granted Necro, Bargain, Desire and Will are the ultimate winners, Draw7s are there to help a Long player equalise Card Advantage, gain Card Advantage and have more card selection.

Draw7s also help with mulligan decisions as if you have a hand with land, land, mox, mox, draw7, brainstorm, ritual, you would be more inclined to keep it.
Also, if you ever mull to 5, a Draw7 gives you the chance to equalise the hand and possibly give you the advantage as you will always be the player with a better hand due to the high threat density of your Long deck.

I digress, but having Street Wraith, as been stated 1000+ times by people all over the globe, complicates mulligan decisions, and if you are cutting Draw7s for it, you are losing a very potential aspect of Long decks.
Your claim that Street Wraith gets you to Necro and Bargain quicker is wrong. You can never be sure of what you are going to draw and this means Street Wraith does not neccessarily get you to Necro or Bargain faster.
Street wraith works well with disadvantage tutors no doubt, however, this is only the case if you have Necro out, what about the case with Bargain? You practically have a dead draw over there. What about with Mind's Desire which you yourself mentioned as one of the best bombs? Another dead card.
For the most part of the Necro case, you can usually Brainstorm into the card searched by the disadvantage tutors as well.

And i dont know about you, but as for Necro, normally, when i resolve it, which is about turn 1 or 2, i usually go for 10 minus x where x is the number of good cards minus the number of dead cards in my hand. This depends on what my opponent is playing though. The thing is, when i Necro, unless i get a really really good hand with it, i cant win the next turn unless i have the right tutors and enough rituals/mana sources. I tried before drawing 12-14 cards with Necro in 1 shot and it did not turn out well, becuase of the fact that your opponent will definitely try to do stuff like Duress or CotV or something to stop you. Normally, i would draw with Necro for 2 turns in order to win. because the first time i draw with Necro, its basically to set up my manabase, play disruption like Duress and to set up for the second drawing with Necro which would eventually lead to my win.

It's a bad idea to run Street Wraith if the life loss is relevant. Since Long is faster than most decks, the life loss is almost always irrelevant. Yes Necro and Bargain, depend on life, yes Grim Tutor makes you lose life, yes Vamp and Seal make you lose life, yes fetches make you lose life, blah blah etc. etc. - doesn't matter. I am still winning games, at a lower life total, perhaps, but I am winning more of them, and drawing my real bombs more often, and casting them more often with counter backup.

And yes, having a 56 card deck is different from a 60 card deck with Street Wraith. It's not different enough to matter.

Life loss is relevant. You can draw yourself to 10 life on turn 1, that would make the other combo player have an easier time killing you. They dont even need to get to 10 spells.

If you play Street Wraiths, you start out the game with approx 15 life you can use, if you have 1 in hand. This is taking into consideration your lands. Not to mention, by playing tutors like Grim Tutor, it would mean your Bargain and Necros must draw lesser cards or risk being unable to cast the tutors.

Long decks can be faster than most decks, however, when facing a control/fish deck, you tend to stick to the flooding out your opponent with bombs method to eventually win.

Life matters, if it does not matter so much, why not go play spoils of the vault and plunge into darkness?

If you play Street Wraith, ultimately and eventually, you will find yourself with a deck that is no faster than MDTendrils and not as much resilient as Long.
MDTendrils wants to kill fast.
Long wants to gain advantage and kill fast, but not as fast and or as badly as MDTendrils wants that it sacrifices so much resiliency.
I have learnt from much play versus all kinds of competitive decks in Vintage that every life counts. Life is a resource, however, it must be used wisely and spent exactingly* to win but not wasted on something like Street wraith/Spoils of the vault/plunge into darkness kind of (High Risk/deckthinning) cards. This is only for the case of Grim Long however. Decks like MD Tendrils and Belcher do not use this philosophy.

If Street Wraith was a 1-life cycler, i will consider it.

False.
If all your Street Wraiths are at the bottom of your deck after shuffling, you effectively have a 56 card deck at the cost of 0 life. If they are at the top, you have a 56 card deck at the cost of 8 life. The average cost is 2-4 life.

The only statement i actually fully agree with.

*Not sure if there is such a word.

[diopter]

But to have a 56 card deck, not just the potential for one, you need to be at 12 life.

False.
If all your Street Wraiths are at the bottom of your deck after shuffling, you effectively have a 56 card deck at the cost of 0 life. If they are at the top, you have a 56 card deck at the cost of 8 life. The average cost is 2-4 life.

No, you actually have to cycle Street Wraith to gain an advantage. Every time you pay 2 life for Street Wraith, you thin your deck by one card. Street Wraith doesn't magically make your deck thinner by sitting in your library.

Let's say you have a card in your hand.
If it isn't Street Wraith, then it is one of the other 56 cards.
If it is Street Wraith, you can turn it into one of the other 56 cards at the cost of 2 life.

Yes, Street Wraith doesn't make your deck thinner by sitting in your library. That's not what it's supposed to do. It's there to simulate a 56-card deck, by ensuring that the cards in your hands essentially come from a pool of 56 cards. By virtue of being in your library, and not in your hand, Street Wraith already accomplishes this, at no cost, because all of the other cards in your hand are, by hypothesis, drawn from the 56-card pool. The only time it costs you anything to simulate a 56-card deck is when Street Wraith makes it into your hand (~40% chance in your opening 7).

I think you forgot the main purpose and intention of a Long deck.
The main idea of a Long deck, is to play bombs after bombs to eventually win the game.
The idea of Draw7s, is that you freely cast them, as there is practically no disadvantage in casting them at all.
Draw7s are used to bait out counters as your opponent will have to counter them or lose their hand.
Draw7s are used to refill and fill your hands with threats so that you can combo off with enough resources.
Draw7s are used on turn 1 to majorly punish your opponent for keeping a hand without FoW or to possibly exchange your opponent's good stax/combo hands for a possibly crappy one while you have developed your mana position. (E.g. You play 1 land, 3 moxen and a Draw7, you just had a speed boost.)

First off, Draw7's have a HUGE disadvantage in that they give your opponent 7 new cards as well. With over half the field playing Force of Will... playing Draw7's are a risk.

Secondly, Playing bomb after bomb is a tactic that Long decks use to beat control decks. It is not the goal or strategy of Long. Long would like nothing more than to play one bomb and ride it to victory. The problem with this is twofold:
- Opposing countermagic
- An individual bomb's strength may not be enough to win

Street Wraith allows you to adjust the ratios of your own protection spells (Fow, Pact, Duress, etc.) without actually increasing the number of spells! This is important because there are only so many "good" spells that you want to run (e.g. you don't want to run 4 Pacts of Negation, for instance) and running FoW requires that you have a certain deck structure (i.e. enough blue cards) that you can't effectively pair it with Duress.

Street Wraith also allows you to maintain your ratio of "bombs", without having to run as many of them. This allows you to cut second-tier bombs like the Draw7s. The bombs you do draw are now of a much higher average power level.

[Jank Golem]

But to have a 56 card deck, not just the potential for one, you need to be at 12 life.

False.
If all your Street Wraiths are at the bottom of your deck after shuffling, you effectively have a 56 card deck at the cost of 0 life. If they are at the top, you have a 56 card deck at the cost of 8 life. The average cost is 2-4 life.

No, you actually have to cycle Street Wraith to gain an advantage. Every time you pay 2 life for Street Wraith, you thin your deck by one card. Street Wraith doesn't magically make your deck thinner by sitting in your library.

Let's say you have a card in your hand.
If it isn't Street Wraith, then it is one of the other 56 cards.
If it is Street Wraith, you can turn it into one of the other 56 cards at the cost of 2 life.

Yes, Street Wraith doesn't make your deck thinner by sitting in your library. That's not what it's supposed to do. It's there to simulate a 56-card deck, by ensuring that the cards in your hands essentially come from a pool of 56 cards. By virtue of being in your library, and not in your hand, Street Wraith already accomplishes this, at no cost, because all of the other cards in your hand are, by hypothesis, drawn from the 56-card pool. The only time it costs you anything to simulate a 56-card deck is when Street Wraith makes it into your hand (~40% chance in your opening 7).

It doesn't simulate a 56 card deck. It simulates a deck of cards 60 minus the number of Street Wraiths played. Lets say you cycle one Street Wraith, you then can draw your 3 others, or one of the other 56 cards. You can't have a theoretical 56 card deck because you still have the possibility of drawing another Street Wraith, which you must cycle and pay life for. In short to get the benefits of Street Wraith it has to be in your hand.

[diopter]

It doesn't simulate a 56 card deck. It simulates a deck of cards 60 minus the number of Street Wraiths played. Lets say you cycle one Street Wraith, you then can draw your 3 others, or one of the other 56 cards. You can't have a theoretical 56 card deck because you still have the possibility of drawing another Street Wraith, which you must cycle and pay life for. In short to get the benefits of Street Wraith it has to be in your hand.

*sigh*

No. You are not seeing it.

Forget cycling Wraith off the bat. Start by drawing a card.

It's either Street Wraith, or one of 56 other cards.
If it's Street Wraith, then you can turn it into one of the 56 other cards at the cost of 2+ life.
If it's not Street Wraith, congrats, you just got one of your 56 precious cards.

Repeat this 7 times for your opening hand, and perhaps 5 more times to account for Brainstorms and topdecks.

The probability of you drawing ALL FOUR Street Wraiths in these 12 or so cards is low. You likely saw 1 or 2, which you cycled, for the cost of 2 to 4 life.
Regardless, you have to agree with me that, once all the cycling was said and done, that the 12 cards you saw and used and did your winning with, came from the non-Wraith 56 cards that exist in your deck.
There's your advantage.

[nataz]

Even in the degenerate 12/8 case, (not shown since it’s limited to Type I decks running dual lands,) the extra card drawn on turn 21 is far too late, particularly in Type I.

Just out of curiosity, 21st turn isnt really the best term, correct? It's 21st card draw (because he assumes 1 card/turn). .: if you run the 12/8 config, you should get 1 extra card/21 cards seen at the cost of 4 life on average.

Am I reading that right?

[Vegeta2711]

Street wraith works well with disadvantage tutors no doubt, however, this is only the case if you have Necro out, what about the case with Bargain? You practically have a dead draw over there. What about with Mind's Desire which you yourself mentioned as one of the best bombs? Another dead card.

Let's cut lands from the deck as well, since clearly those are dead with Bargain and necro. 

Like seriously, if you resolve either of those cards, you should't really care if you get 1 'dead draw' off Wraith.

*Cue stupid examples about that one time in a game the 1 card mattered.*

[Jank Golem]

It doesn't simulate a 56 card deck. It simulates a deck of cards 60 minus the number of Street Wraiths played. Lets say you cycle one Street Wraith, you then can draw your 3 others, or one of the other 56 cards. You can't have a theoretical 56 card deck because you still have the possibility of drawing another Street Wraith, which you must cycle and pay life for. In short to get the benefits of Street Wraith it has to be in your hand.

*sigh*

No. You are not seeing it.

Forget cycling Wraith off the bat. Start by drawing a card.

It's either Street Wraith, or one of 56 other cards.
If it's Street Wraith, then you can turn it into one of the 56 other cards at the cost of 2+ life.
If it's not Street Wraith, congrats, you just got one of your 56 precious cards.

Repeat this 7 times for your opening hand, and perhaps 5 more times to account for Brainstorms and topdecks.

The probability of you drawing ALL FOUR Street Wraiths in these 12 or so cards is low. You likely saw 1 or 2, which you cycled, for the cost of 2 to 4 life.
Regardless, you have to agree with me that, once all the cycling was said and done, that the 12 cards you saw and used and did your winning with, came from the non-Wraith 56 cards that exist in your deck.
There's your advantage.

First, there is no need to be condescending. You usually only see 1-2 Wraiths, like you said. My point is you only get to cycle those 1-2 Wraiths, so you only get a 58-59 card deck. To actually thin your deck further you need to of course cycle more Wraiths. If you have the other 2-3 Wraiths sitting in your deck they hurt the odds you will draw a business spell. You might say "But if I draw another Wraith it doesn't matter because I can just cycle it". You can cycle 2nd Wraith, but you have to pay the life for it. The basic point is, the Wraiths do always give you the potential for a 56 card deck, but you have to be able/willing to cycle them if you draw them.

EDIT:

Even in the degenerate 12/8 case, (not shown since it’s limited to Type I decks running dual lands,) the extra card drawn on turn 21 is far too late, particularly in Type I.

Just out of curiosity, 21st turn isnt really the best term, correct? It's 21st card draw (because he assumes 1 card/turn). .: if you run the 12/8 config, you should get 1 extra card/21 cards seen at the cost of 4 life on average.

Am I reading that right?

Yes, he really means cards drawn, not turns. The really interesting statistic is that on average the first extra card in 4 fetches/16 land case is not realized until around the 36th card drawn, and at an average cost of 2.8 life.

[diopter]

First, there is no need to be condescending. You usually only see 1-2 Wraiths, like you said. My point is you only get to cycle those 1-2 Wraiths, so you only get a 58-59 card deck. To actually thin your deck further you need to of course cycle more Wraiths. If you have the other 2-3 Wraiths sitting in your deck they hurt the odds you will draw a business spell. You might say "But if I draw another Wraith it doesn't matter because I can just cycle it". You can cycle 2nd Wraith, but you have to pay the life for it. The basic point is, the Wraiths do always give you the potential for a 56 card deck, but you have to be able/willing to cycle them if you draw them.

It doesn't matter how big your deck is at any given moment. Not one whit.

What matters is that the card on top of your deck, and what pool of cards is being randomized to provide you with that topdeck - we want this pool to be as small as possible, for many reasons which have been stated ad nauseum.

Street Wraith (just like every other card that could go in its place) achieves that objective when you DON'T draw them.
But, unlike every other card, it also achieves it when you DO draw them.

There's no sliding scale - you are always drawing one of 56 cards when your deck includes Wraith. Always. And you are almost never going to have to pay 8 life for the privelege of doing so.

[Jank Golem]

First, there is no need to be condescending. You usually only see 1-2 Wraiths, like you said. My point is you only get to cycle those 1-2 Wraiths, so you only get a 58-59 card deck. To actually thin your deck further you need to of course cycle more Wraiths. If you have the other 2-3 Wraiths sitting in your deck they hurt the odds you will draw a business spell. You might say "But if I draw another Wraith it doesn't matter because I can just cycle it". You can cycle 2nd Wraith, but you have to pay the life for it. The basic point is, the Wraiths do always give you the potential for a 56 card deck, but you have to be able/willing to cycle them if you draw them.

It doesn't matter how big your deck is at any given moment. Not one whit.

What matters is that the card on top of your deck, and what pool of cards is being randomized to provide you with that topdeck - we want this pool to be as small as possible, for many reasons which have been stated ad nauseum.

Street Wraith (just like every other card that could go in its place) achieves that objective when you DON'T draw them.
But, unlike every other card, it also achieves it when you DO draw them.

There's no sliding scale - you are always drawing one of 56 cards when your deck includes Wraith. Always. And you are almost never going to have to pay 8 life for the privelege of doing so.

I think we are saying the same thing, just in different ways. My only point is that you don't realize the advantage of Wraith, because like you said he could be any other card, unless he is in your hand and cycling.

[diopter]

First, there is no need to be condescending. You usually only see 1-2 Wraiths, like you said. My point is you only get to cycle those 1-2 Wraiths, so you only get a 58-59 card deck. To actually thin your deck further you need to of course cycle more Wraiths. If you have the other 2-3 Wraiths sitting in your deck they hurt the odds you will draw a business spell. You might say "But if I draw another Wraith it doesn't matter because I can just cycle it". You can cycle 2nd Wraith, but you have to pay the life for it. The basic point is, the Wraiths do always give you the potential for a 56 card deck, but you have to be able/willing to cycle them if you draw them.

It doesn't matter how big your deck is at any given moment. Not one whit.

What matters is that the card on top of your deck, and what pool of cards is being randomized to provide you with that topdeck - we want this pool to be as small as possible, for many reasons which have been stated ad nauseum.

Street Wraith (just like every other card that could go in its place) achieves that objective when you DON'T draw them.
But, unlike every other card, it also achieves it when you DO draw them.

There's no sliding scale - you are always drawing one of 56 cards when your deck includes Wraith. Always. And you are almost never going to have to pay 8 life for the privelege of doing so.

I think we are saying the same thing, just in different ways. My only point is that you don't realize the advantage of Wraith, because like you said he could be any other card, unless he is in your hand and cycling.

Indeed. If Wraith is in your library, then it's no different than if it's any other card. But that's OK. You are holding one of your other 56 bombs instead. The real key is that when you are unfortunate enough to draw Wraith (which would otherwise be one of your 57th-best to 60th-best cards), you can turn it into one of aformentioned 56 bombs, at the low low price of 2 life!

[Stamford]

Street wraith works well with disadvantage tutors no doubt, however, this is only the case if you have Necro out, what about the case with Bargain? You practically have a dead draw over there. What about with Mind's Desire which you yourself mentioned as one of the best bombs? Another dead card.

Let's cut lands from the deck as well, since clearly those are dead with Bargain and necro. 

Like seriously, if you resolve either of those cards, you should't really care if you get 1 'dead draw' off Wraith.

*Cue stupid examples about that one time in a game the 1 card mattered.*

You can always have a land drop, it does not hurt.

Cut lands from the deck? Sure, i would if i could. However, decks like Long are already packing the minimum amount of lands it can possibly have without sacrificing its resiliency to wasteland/ other mana problems.

If there is the idea that you shouldnt really care if its 1 dead draw off Wraith, i could rebut by saying you shouldnt really care if you deck does not include Street Wraith or not,

It would basically mean,
The advantages of Street Wraith cancels out with the disadvantages of Street Wraith.
You get to run a thinner deck but you also get to have lesser life as a resource, starting hand complications, lesser synergy with other cards in your library including BS, Necro, Bargain...etc.

My point is, Street Wraith is meant for those kind of cutthroat decks like Ichorid and not meant for a deck with so many different types of bombs that win you the game in their own ways. Im not saying Street Wraith sucks, but its advantage is not maximised for decks like Long. Street Wraith does not have any really relevant or significant synergies with Long decks aside from that with disadvantage tutors. (Even then, it does not really make a difference as with Disadvantage tutors, you are still trading 2 cards for 1.)

First off, Draw7's have a HUGE disadvantage in that they give your opponent 7 new cards as well. With over half the field playing Force of Will... playing Draw7's are a risk.

Secondly, Playing bomb after bomb is a tactic that Long decks use to beat control decks. It is not the goal or strategy of Long. Long would like nothing more than to play one bomb and ride it to victory. The problem with this is twofold:
- Opposing countermagic
- An individual bomb's strength may not be enough to win

Street Wraith allows you to adjust the ratios of your own protection spells (Fow, Pact, Duress, etc.) without actually increasing the number of spells! This is important because there are only so many "good" spells that you want to run (e.g. you don't want to run 4 Pacts of Negation, for instance) and running FoW requires that you have a certain deck structure (i.e. enough blue cards) that you can't effectively pair it with Duress.

Street Wraith also allows you to maintain your ratio of "bombs", without having to run as many of them. This allows you to cut second-tier bombs like the Draw7s. The bombs you do draw are now of a much higher average power level.

I thought i had stated it myself that Draw7s do give your opponent a new hand as well, but it would also have its own advantages, else it wouldnt be included in the first place.

Their main purpose as had been stated in my previous post which you just happened to ignore,
is to
a)equalise the hands and possibly giving you a board advantage. (see examples in my previous posts.)
b)baiting out counters.
c)handscrew your opponent more likely than you would handscrew yourself, because of the fact that Long has a much higher threat density than any other deck and this means you get the most advantage out of Draw7s.
d)continuing the combo.
e)when coupled with a Xantid Swarm, tends to work entirely in your favour.
f)wonderfully powerful when flipped by a Desire.
g)makes starting hands decisions easier.

You have failed to address the part on baiting out counters, the synergy with Desire, the board advantage and equalising of hands when your opponent has more cards but no counters.

The goal of a Long deck is to win in a single turn via ToA most of the time, (preferably) or in 2 turns via EtW or DSC.
The deck is built around achieving the goal via card advantage, taking informed risks with bombs, tempo advantage, and basically every other factor out there. This is the case with every Magic deck.
Playing bomb after bomb is a strategy, not a tactic. Since strategy is what you adopt as your main aim in achieving your goal. A tactic refers to something like "playing brainstorm in response to duress and deciding what cards to be shown to your opponent" or "baiting out a turn 1 FoW by thinking hard on your starting hand and then playing a turn 1 Lotus to mis-inform your opponent into thinking its your only mana source when you actually do not need it that much."

[diopter]

I thought i had stated it myself that Draw7s do give your opponent a new hand as well, but it would also have its own advantages, else it wouldnt be included in the first place.

Their main purpose as had been stated in my previous post which you just happened to ignore,
is to
a)equalise the hands and possibly giving you a board advantage. (see examples in my previous posts.)
b)baiting out counters.
c)handscrew your opponent more likely than you would handscrew yourself, because of the fact that Long has a much higher threat density than any other deck and this means you get the most advantage out of Draw7s.
d)continuing the combo.
e)when coupled with a Xantid Swarm, tends to work entirely in your favour.
f)wonderfully powerful when flipped by a Desire.
g)makes starting hands decisions easier.

You have failed to address the part on baiting out counters, the synergy with Desire, the board advantage and equalising of hands when your opponent has more cards but no counters.

I'll address your reasons one by one.
a.) Equalise hands and give board advantage
c.) Handscrewing opponents

Although it is possible that you can force your opponent to draw a bad hand of 7 and win off the advantage, it is much more likely that you either give him the nuts, or an acceptable hand, or a hand that is [FoW, blue card, 5 irrelevant cards] which owns your new hand.

b.) Baiting out counters

Baiting out counters with Draw7's is a necessary tactic used by Long, because Long cannot run a higher ratio of protection spells than it currently runs. Long cannot support too many pitch counters, and it can't effectively pair FoW with Duress. Therefore it has to run a higher threat density to win attrition wars.

d.) Continuing the combo

By this I assume you mean that Long uses Draw7's as game-winning bombs. True enough, but Draw7's are Long's most unreliable bombs. They are least likely to give you a win when resolved.

e.) When coupled with a Xantid Swarm, tends to work entirely in your favour.

Cute combo, but completely unnecessary. If you are attacking with Xantid Swarm, you would rather be winning with a tutor chain or Necro or Bargain - they are guaranteed wins. Draw7's are not guaranteed wins.

f) Wonderfully powerful when flipped by a Desire

Every business spell in the deck is insane when flipped by a Desire. I'd rather flip over a tutor, or even better, Tendrils of Agony, when playing Desire.

g) Makes starting hands decisions easier

I don't understand.
You believe that Wraith makes starting hand decisions harder because you have to invest a card in your hand, to draw an unknown card.
By that logic, Draw7's should starting hand decisions even harder because you have to invest your whole hand, to draw 7 unknown cards, with a mana investment to boot.
However, you state that Draw7's make these decisions easier. Which is it?

My view on Draw7's is that they are don't make mulliganing easier or harder. If I have a Draw7 and many stable mana sources, I will most certainly keep the hand. If I have a Draw7 and few stable mana sources, I will consider mulliganing. This is no different from evaluating, for instance, Grim Tutor hands based on how much storm and mana the hand can generate.

---

The ultimate reason, the relevant reason that Draw7's are included in Long, is to increase threat density so that Long can win attrition wars against control decks.

It is a tactic, not a strategy.
Other combo decks have adopted other tactics, such as running very narrow but devastating protection spells like Xantid Swarm maindeck, or simply running more countermagic.

The Long strategy (which is really the storm combo strategy that is common to all combo decks in Vintage) is to play a bomb (whether it be Necro, Bargain, tutor into Will, or Gifts into Will) to accumulate a critical mass of mana and Tendrils of Agony. The top bombs in Long (Bargain, Necro, Will, Desire) are capable of achieving this on their own with regularity, while the Draw7's are less reliable (but still poweful enough to include in pre-Future Sight builds).

Street Wraith allows Long deckbuilders to adjust the ratios slightly higher on their protection and slightly lower on their threats. New Long builds will be less likely to play multiple (3+) bombs. They will not need to, because they will be able to protect their combo from countermagic more often. As well, by cutting only the weaker bombs, Long's single bombs are on a much higher average power level.

Really, that is all adding Street Wraith is about - maintaining or adjusting ratios, while increasing the average power level of your cards.