Future Sight spoiled: Street Wraith - 4 of in every deck?

[Englishman_in_NH]

While I haven't really decided whether I like the idea of running Street Wraith or not; please remember that the cycling can be countered through Stifle like effects.

I'm not saying that this affects or doesn't affect the perceived number of cards in a deck. I'm not sure if it does - I don't really want to think too hard about it.

I think what I'm trying to say, is to consider the draw being countered, which it seems not everyone is doing. (Not pointing fingers, just seems like it hasn't brought up very often.)

I'm waiting to see some tournaments when FS is legal to see how things shake out. I'm sure there will be a few Street Wraiths around, but I will interested to see if they are combated with extra Stifle etc in the mana denial decks that use them.

[Vegeta2711]

If somebody is countering Street Wraith with Stifle; I think you're jumping for joy that you got paired against that opponent.

[Englishman_in_NH]

Obviously if you are playing combo, stifling the Street Wraith makes you happy as they are not hoarding them for tendrils/warrens.

But what if you are playing a non-combo deck with Street Wraith, if your opponent stifles, would you be happy to see the cycling trigger countered?

[The Atog Lord]

But what if you are playing a non-combo deck with Street Wraith, if your opponent stifles, would you be happy to see the cycling trigger countered?

Almost all of the time, yes. This stifle cost you a random card, and the opponent a card and a mana. Moreover, nearly every deck has a better Stifle target than a Random draw. If you get a Fetchland stifled, for instance, that cost you a land drop. This is simply a 1-for-1; about the same as getting a Piracy charm aimed at you. Not wonderful, but certainly not the scariest thing that could happen to a Magic player.

[Robert the Swordsman]

Though the drawback of life loss isn't something to be too worried about, I suspect that cycling two or three of these could have an actual impact if you're sitting across from Fish or someone who plans on spreading some Goblins across the table.

Regardless, this card is extremely awesome. It'll probably spawn some kinda' hybrid archetypes, if not an entirely new one. Maybe I'm being presumptuous, but it seems awfully powerful.

I'm a huge fan.

[IceOaks]

I had actually wanted to include this deck into one of my combo decks to help thin and accelerate the deck but after trying it with proxies, i realise, this card can never go into a Long combo... True, it's like starting the deck with 56 cards and 12 life, but do not forget that the deck also plays 6 fetches, which means you're down to 6 life and 50 cards, and if u're play Pitch Long n you take into account FoW, then u'd be left with 2 life... N if you happen to Vamp Tutor, whoops, SUICIDE!!! That sounds ridiculous!!! What about Bargain and Grim Tutors?

Anyways, that aside, you have to draw like at least 3-4 in a game for it to actually make a difference, but if you don't, i think the deck can do with more synergistic cards than this.

However, with decks like Ichorid, I think it would be quite a useful addition!

[carlossb]

Aren´t 4 Street Wraiths tailor made for a Doomsday deck?

The first ones depended on Chromatic Sphere to draw the Ancestral for the standard combo, the last ones only included one, but would be incredibly improved by including Street Wraiths. It would lead to more solutions and to even more 5card piles.

Now that stax decks are not prevalent as they used to be, a combo deck with 4Duress/Unmasks, 4FOW/BluePact could be playable again, to say the least.

[diopter]

I had actually wanted to include this deck into one of my combo decks to help thin and accelerate the deck but after trying it with proxies, i realise, this card can never go into a Long combo... True, it's like starting the deck with 56 cards and 12 life, but do not forget that the deck also plays 6 fetches, which means you're down to 6 life and 50 cards, and if u're play Pitch Long n you take into account FoW, then u'd be left with 2 life... N if you happen to Vamp Tutor, whoops, SUICIDE!!! That sounds ridiculous!!! What about Bargain and Grim Tutors?

Anyways, that aside, you have to draw like at least 3-4 in a game for it to actually make a difference, but if you don't, i think the deck can do with more synergistic cards than this.

However, with decks like Ichorid, I think it would be quite a useful addition!

You do not have to start at 12 life in order to get the full benefits of Street Wraith unless you draw all 4, just like playing with 6 fetchlands does not mean you lose 6 life, unless of course you live to turn 6 and play all 6 of your fetchlands - and if you're combo, you should be losing that game.

And contrary to your belief, you do not have to draw ANY Wraiths to get the benefit of playing a virtual 56 card deck. In fact you'd rather not draw Wraiths so that you draw from your 56 card deck naturally. Wraith acts as a placeholder so that when you do draw into one of your 4 worst cards, you can pay a small price to turn it into one of your 56 best cards.

Did you actually try this in combo? I averaged about 1.5 Wraiths cycled, with the maximum being 3 (which happened once in 30 games). In none of those games did I draw all 6 fetchlands, all 4 Wraiths, and all 4 FoWs to put myself at 2 life. I get the feeling that you did not try this in combo at all like you are claiming to have done.

[Pave]

One disadvantage that should be noted is that Brainstorming into Wraith is not good - it reduces the true reach of Brainstorm.

[Le Pougnezu]

It seems that the brainstorm "true reach" isn't drastically affected by that wraith.
What is Braistorm's reach?  3 cards, that you draw, that is the immediate depth of information you get. You only get information from the top three cards you draw, then no more information is added by the two that you stack back.

Brainstorm considered with information :
You draw three cards, which adds three cards information, then put two on top of your library. It adds nor removes nothing, except the fact that you're drawing the two cards you already know. You're gaining a raw 3, but losing 1 over each of the next 2 draws.
The net information gained from BS is 1 if you do nothing.
If you shuffle your library, you gain net 3 cards info.

If you have a braistorm, no wraith in hand, and play braistorm revealing a wraith, you still have gathered information from the top three cards, but in that case, the wraith disturbs you since it's a "filler" card (it adds basically nothing from a business point of view).
So in that case it reduces to 2 what you get from a brainstorm immediately.
The point is that you can cycle it immediately to reduce the amount of already-known information for the next draws.
If you shuffle your library, then cycle the wraith, you catch up the information loss you had by drawing the wraith.


The question is : what do you do immediately after a BS?
Do you wait till you flip up the two islands you've just put on top of your library?

You BS usually for a couple reasons I think :
Protecting a bomb against hand disruption, or going for new fresh cards.
In both cases Wraith only add benefits (imho).

In the case you are exploring through your deck, seeking for bombs or any means to keep your combo running, you definetely should have a way to shuffle your deck after the BS, because if you simply draw 3 and put back 2 useless cards, you will have the next two draws that will be "dead draws". In that case brainstorming a wraith isn't that bad, since you will go exactly as deep as you could have been without, ending drawing the two dumped cards at a 1 draw-delay rate as if you didn't have the wraith (ok, yes, you are losing 2 life, and yes, it is important).

If you plan on shuffling your deck right after BS, you reset all the library, and you can immediately cycle the wraith, which immediately compensates the fact that you braistormed a wraith. The amount of cards and information you get is exactly the same with BS, whether you get the wraith or not.

The point is that in either cases, you can make the choice of cycling it now, or later. It gives more option (I agree it's not a very insane play).
When talking about cards, and card information you get from BS, wraith doesn't interfere in most cases, because you will be shuffling the library afterwards. It is true that it reduces the reach of BS, but only it's instant reach. Once you've drawn the two cards you've stacked back, wraith's drawback disappears.
Moreover, it allows you to choose when you will be compensating that loss, at the cost of 2 life.

Not to mention that wraith protection is amazing. As a response to duress, BS into wraith makes the bomb you've been protecting directly available. Same for topdeck tutors.
It can make mulliganing difficult, but wraith is a good hand-defense card.
Wraith drawn in a BS is sub optimal if the library remains unshuffled, but goes very interesting once it happens.

[IceOaks]

I had actually wanted to include this deck into one of my combo decks to help thin and accelerate the deck but after trying it with proxies, i realise, this card can never go into a Long combo... True, it's like starting the deck with 56 cards and 12 life, but do not forget that the deck also plays 6 fetches, which means you're down to 6 life and 50 cards, and if u're play Pitch Long n you take into account FoW, then u'd be left with 2 life... N if you happen to Vamp Tutor, whoops, SUICIDE!!! That sounds ridiculous!!! What about Bargain and Grim Tutors?

Anyways, that aside, you have to draw like at least 3-4 in a game for it to actually make a difference, but if you don't, i think the deck can do with more synergistic cards than this.

However, with decks like Ichorid, I think it would be quite a useful addition!

You do not have to start at 12 life in order to get the full benefits of Street Wraith unless you draw all 4, just like playing with 6 fetchlands does not mean you lose 6 life, unless of course you live to turn 6 and play all 6 of your fetchlands - and if you're combo, you should be losing that game.

And contrary to your belief, you do not have to draw ANY Wraiths to get the benefit of playing a virtual 56 card deck. In fact you'd rather not draw Wraiths so that you draw from your 56 card deck naturally. Wraith acts as a placeholder so that when you do draw into one of your 4 worst cards, you can pay a small price to turn it into one of your 56 best cards.

Did you actually try this in combo? I averaged about 1.5 Wraiths cycled, with the maximum being 3 (which happened once in 30 games). In none of those games did I draw all 6 fetchlands, all 4 Wraiths, and all 4 FoWs to put myself at 2 life. I get the feeling that you did not try this in combo at all like you are claiming to have done.

If u read my post carefully, all i'm contesting is that certain people have overrated the card considerably by claiming a 56 card deck...
I've not tested it in play n i've goldfished and realised that it's not really useful for pitchlong cos for my version, i've taken out a misd, a land, a vault and another card to put in street wraith but i'm still playing full draw7's.
I've average about 2-3 per turn and about 2-3 fetches  by approximately the 4th turn where pitchlong generally is more or less ready to combo off. The thing is i'd have to pay life for grim as well and by this time i'm down to very few life. Oh n i forgot to mention that the meta where i m is very irritatingly fishy and controllish, so by the 4th turn usually, i'm still not going off yet PLUS, i've shortened the clock. In the long run, i think i might die to streetwraith's thining of the deck. Guess it also depends highly on the meta that one is playing, or maybe i've taken out the wrong things...

[diopter]

If u read my post carefully, all i'm contesting is that certain people have overrated the card considerably by claiming a 56 card deck...
I've not tested it in play n i've goldfished and realised that it's not really useful for pitchlong cos for my version, i've taken out a misd, a land, a vault and another card to put in street wraith but i'm still playing full draw7's.
I've average about 2-3 per turn and about 2-3 fetches by approximately the 4th turn where pitchlong generally is more or less ready to combo off. The thing is i'd have to pay life for grim as well and by this time i'm down to very few life. Oh n i forgot to mention that the meta where i m is very irritatingly fishy and controllish, so by the 4th turn usually, i'm still not going off yet PLUS, i've shortened the clock. In the long run, i think i might die to streetwraith's thining of the deck. Guess it also depends highly on the meta that one is playing, or maybe i've taken out the wrong things...

So essentially what you're saying is you haven't tested this in Pitch Long.

And I don't believe that you're averaging 2-3 Wraiths played. You should be averagin 1-2, seeing as how you can only play 4. And I don't buy 2-3 fetches per game either. 2, maybe, but 3, on average? No, not even with 8 fetches will this happen on average.

Street Wraith is supposed to make the average power level of your cards higher. Cut the Draw7's. Don't cut lands - your Wraith hands will be more consistent, you'll mulligan less of them.
If you're not consistently going off by at the latest turn 3 with Long, you are not playing it correctly.

[LotusHead]

Street Wraith is supposed to make the average power level of your cards higher. Cut the Draw7's. Don't cut lands - your Wraith hands will be more consistent, you'll mulligan less of them.

Other than Ichorid (which I assume will LOVE this card), Street Wraith doesn't neccessarily make the power of all your cards better.

They just make Vampirical Tutur, Mystical Tutor, Imperial Seal and the like freaking aweseome, as opposed to merely the best restricted tutors Vintage has.  No mana commitments.

This doesn't make 56 card decks.  But hmmmmmm. 8 Bauble/4Wraith.decs? wacky!

[diopter]

Street Wraith is supposed to make the average power level of your cards higher. Cut the Draw7's. Don't cut lands - your Wraith hands will be more consistent, you'll mulligan less of them.

Other than Ichorid (which I assume will LOVE this card), Street Wraith doesn't neccessarily make the power of all your cards better.

They just make Vampirical Tutur, Mystical Tutor, Imperial Seal and the like freaking aweseome, as opposed to merely the best restricted tutors Vintage has.  No mana commitments.

This doesn't make 56 card decks.  But hmmmmmm. 8 Bauble/4Wraith.decs? wacky!

You're right, each individual card in your deck (excepting the topdeck tutors) will have more or less the same power level. However, because Street Wraith is replacing the worst 4 cards, the average power level of any card you draw will be higher.

Chapin used an example similar to what I'm about to use in his article on not playing 61 cards, but I'll present it here anyway.

Let's use "power level" as an absolute metric of how statistically "good" a card is. We don't want to get too into semantics here, but let's say a card is "good" in a situation if it can consistently contribute to a game win in that situation.
A card with power level 100 is good in every situation. This is unattainable.
A card with power level 0 is bad in every situation. This is also unattainable.
A card with a higher power level is generally more powerful in more situations than a card with a lower power level, although perhaps not strictily more powerful in every situation.

Onto the sample decks.

1.) You have a 60 card Storm combo deck. The power level breakdown could roughly be described as follows (note, this is a rough approximation to give an example, don't flame):

Power level 95 - 2 cards (obv. Black Lotus and Ancestral Recall)
Power level 90 - 30 cards (most of the mana, Brainstorm)
Power level 85 - 11 cards (Will, Necro, Bargain, tutors)
Power level 80 - 10 cards (protection spells, second tier mana like Cabal Ritual, Time Walk)
Power level 75 - 6 cards (bounce spells, Draw7s)
Power level 25 - 1 card (Tendrils, mostly useless until you already have the combo)

The numbers are a bit off, but whatever. Do the math, and you see that the average power level is 85.

2.) You have a 56 card Storm combo deck. Obviously you can't cut Tendrils, so cut the 4 Draw7s. Power breakdown is:

Power level 95 - 2 cards
Power level 90 - 30 cards
Power level 85 - 11 cards
Power level 80 - 10 cards
Power level 75 - 2 cards
Power level 25 - 1 card

Average power level is 85.7. You gain 0.7 average power, and the price (2-4 life) is hardly noticeable!

Of course, this analysis is hinged on the power level numbers I was assigning cards, which is totally pulled out of my ass. But any Storm combo player will tell you that Draw7s are the weakest bombs, sometimes difficult to maximize, with a payout that is not guaranteed. They are among the worst cards in Storm combo, and taking them out to raise the average power level of each individual draw, for the price of 0-4 life a game, is quite a benefit.

[Shaman]

The fact is that draw7s sometimes let you win the game out of nowhere. Here is where they shine so much. I doubt that a one-card cycling card will do the same when you are far away from a dominant position and you desperately want to draw the bomb you need.

I'll explain better my thoughts: in certain situations, your hopes are only certain cards: will, tutors, draw7. If you cut draw7s for wratihs, of course your power level will increase (that's math, as you pointed out); but in the situations above the same math will tell you that the odds of drawing those damned cards that will let you win the game are...well, they just decrease.

So the question is: can a storm combo deck renounce to the power to change the game out of nowhere like a draw7s does?

[Vegeta2711]

The fact is that draw7s sometimes let you win the game out of nowhere.

Isn't this why most people cut them from combo decks? They basically are desperation cards vs. everything else in your deck. That's not really a good thing to have while deck-tuning.

[InfinityCircuit]

The fact is that draw7s sometimes let you win the game out of nowhere.

Isn't this why most people cut them from combo decks? They basically are desperation cards vs. everything else in your deck. That's not really a good thing to have while deck-tuning.

This doesn't make sense.  Your logic says that random Tinker for Colossus is a reason to cut Tinker and Colossus from the deck.  Draw7s offer an alternative way to win when Crypt is on the table or if you need to refill your hand.

[diopter]

The fact is that draw7s sometimes let you win the game out of nowhere.

Isn't this why most people cut them from combo decks? They basically are desperation cards vs. everything else in your deck. That's not really a good thing to have while deck-tuning.

This doesn't make sense.  Your logic says that random Tinker for Colossus is a reason to cut Tinker and Colossus from the deck.  Draw7s offer an alternative way to win when Crypt is on the table or if you need to refill your hand.

...

Playing a Draw7's is a suboptimal way to refill your hand. Your opponent is drawing 7 new cards as well, and odds are he's playing a Force of Will deck, which will complicate your ability to win. And if you pass the turn, which you are liable to do because expending resources to draw a random 7 is not always going to win you the game on the same turn, then your opponent can do broken things once he untaps.

Yeah, Draw7s are an alternative win path when Crypt is on the board. Necro, Bargain, and Desire are better. Constructing your deck so that you draw one of these three (or the tutors to find them) more often, is better than leaning on your suboptimal bombs as a crutch.

[Vegeta2711]

The fact is that draw7s sometimes let you win the game out of nowhere.

Isn't this why most people cut them from combo decks? They basically are desperation cards vs. everything else in your deck. That's not really a good thing to have while deck-tuning.

This doesn't make sense.  Your logic says that random Tinker for Colossus is a reason to cut Tinker and Colossus from the deck.  Draw7s offer an alternative way to win when Crypt is on the table or if you need to refill your hand.

Apparently you don't even know what my logic was, because your example makes absolutely no sense. Tinker -> Colossus is in no way actually random. You cast Tinker, you find Colossus, you knew if you could or could not fetch Colossus as soon as you were thinking about casting Tinker. You know exactly what you're going to get and it's something you'd actually want to actively tutor and plan around. Tinker into Colossus never says 'Oops, you drew shit, you lose the game now!'.  Like I can't even see how the examples are anything but loosely connected to one another, based on some random saying that people like to use when they lost to a T1 DSC.

Casting a D-7 basically means you've run out of good options with a combo deck. You never -want- to cast one, because the odds of losing despite resolving it are higher than say Desire, Necro or Bargain. Sure you -can- lose while resolving those cards, but it happens a helluva lot less. You cast a Draw-7 because you've been forced too. Look at the second part of what you said.

"or if you need to refill your hand"

As I said, it's a desperation move.

[Darkenslight]

This beomes an automatic four-of in two (yes, just TWO) decks: Belcher and Ichorid.

Belcher because it's draw, and ichorid, because it's instant-speed Dredge AND Black.

[Stamford]

Are we forgetting the Draw7s also give you a tempo boost?

For example, turn 1, i play Mana Crypt, Underground Sea, Mox, I then play Timetwister.

If it resolves, you can clearly tell that you have just gained A LOT OF Tempo and Card Advantage.

Firstly, you got yourself a new hand.
Secondly, you got yourself 3 cards on the board.

This actually more or less confirms, that if you get to the next turn, you can most likely win, due to the resources you have in hand and the mana available to cast them.

How bad can that get?

Long is also the deck that runs the highest threat density. Chances of you getting a bad hand as opposed to your opponent getting a bad hand is in your favour.

I had a real live example, in which i i kept a six card against MDG

My hand was Underground Sea, Elvish Spirit Guide, Time Walk, Timetwister, Black Lotus, Regrowth.

Since i already mulled to six, while my opponent kept a 7-carder, i decided to keep this hand.

So i was on the play, i went Sea, ESG, Time Walk.

Turn 2, i topdecked another Sea. I laid Sea, play Lotus, sac for GGG, then cast Timetwister with G float.
I did this, because if there was the chance that Twister was countered, i could regrowth it and hopefully topdeck another mana source in which to cast Timetwister again.
Sure enough, he did not have a counter, (later he revealed to me that he had a hand with 2 moxen, 1 of them being a Sapphire, 1 Volcanic Island and 1 Mana Drain, with a few other business spells.)

So i resolved Timetwister, and went on to draw a hand of Yawg Bargain, Gemstone Mine, Sol Ring, Mox Sapphire, Brainstorm, Cabal Ritual, Duress.

I cast Sol Ring, Mox Sapphire into Brainstorm drawing Imperial Seal, Mox Pearl, Demonic Tutor. I put back Pearl and Seal and proceeded to Duress my opponent, revealing a hand of (Land,Land,Land, Mox, Black Lotus, Drain, FOW.)

Up to this point, it should be quite obvious i have the game in hand.

So the point?

(1) Draw7 in Grim Long is good because Grim Long has the highest threat density.
What this means is that whenever you resolve a Draw7 in Grim Long, the chances of you having the better hand will always be higher than that of your opponents.
That means chances of you winning will be higher.

(2) Draw7 in Grim Long is good because it makes starting hand decisions easier. (Compare just now that situation by replacing it with Street Wraith, would you have kept that hand?)
Draw7s, besides helping with the strategy of luring out counters, also helps with a hand decision.
On average, a Grim Long deck has at least 2 bombs/tutors in the starting hand. Casting the minor bomb of a Draw7, will definitely bait out a counter and give you the opportunity of casting your second, more devastating bomb.
If your Draw7 resolves, refer to point (1) above.
As for just now that situation, if you replace that bomb with some other bomb, would it have the same effect? Yawg Will is practically useless in that situation, so is Mind's Desire to a larget extent which brings me to my third point.

(3) Draw7 is almost always never a dead card in most situations.
Will it ever hurt to have a Draw7 in hand? No. Will it ever hurt to have a Yawg Bargain, Yawg Will, Necro, Desire, Grim Tutor? Yes.
There are some times when you simply dont have the correct set of cards to abuse a Bargain, Will, Necro, Desire or Grim Tutor, but that are much lesser chances of you not being able to abuse a Draw7.
There are those bombs, that you will never hurt to have (Ancestral Recall, Time Walk, Draw7s, Tinker) and those where you can only abuse it fully when you have the right set of cards, be it in your graveyard or hand or mana requirements ( Will, Desire, Necro, Bargain)

(4) Draw7s, can give you a tempo advantage when played in the right situation.
Refer to my personal example in my game vs MDG.

Draw7s are not just random bombs thrown into a Grim Long deck for no reason. They require skill to play and requires you to make the right decisions and play them at the right time in order to fully abuse them.

While you may say that Draw7 also gives your opponent a new hand and a new chance to get FOW, you have equally just as much chance to get a Duress or Xantid Swarm from your hand, and possibly the mana required to cast it all on that turn.

Isn't this the exact same reason why people go for the turn 1 kill when possible, even if they don't know whether their opponents are holding FoW or not? Chances of them holding 1 or more is 40%.

Lastly, i disagree with that analysis of calculating power level.

First of all, the power level of cards like Black Lotus, lands, BS, Recall cannot be determined simply by themselves.
Their power level is determined by the bombs you run along with it.
It doesnt make sense when you put that analysis in this context.

Deck A, a storm combo deck, runs 16 lands and the usual bombs, except for the bounce spells and a few Draw7s

Deck B, a similar storm combo deck, runs 11 lands and the usual bombs.

By your analysis, Deck A would be significantly better than Deck B?

And Lands have a power level of 90? Higher than Yawg Will?

If you were to cancel out all the lands, the Brainstorms, Duress, Bounce Spells (leave Recall and Mana Accel in), you would find that the power level of a deck without Draw7s is significantly lower to that of a deck with Draw7s.

[diopter]

Stamford:

What you're essentially saying is that

Draw7s, can give you a tempo advantage when played in the right situation.

Draw7s are situationally good, and that

Draw7 in Grim Long is good because it makes starting hand decisions easier.

Draw7s make it easier for a player to keep suboptimal hands instead of actually evaluating hands based on probability analysis.

You are making my point for me.

As for your example - it is ridiculous. You topdecked a second land so that you could cast Rituals off your Twister hand, and it still nearly fizzled - it had no tutors, and you were lucky to draw Mox Sapphire to cast that Brainstorm, and then lucky to find the Demonic Tutor. And I still don't understand how you had that game in hand, as your opponent drew quite a nutty hand and your retelling of the story leads me to believe that you had passed the turn after Duressing him - in which case he had mana open for the counter you didn't take with Duress. And had you tried to win without passing the turn, that means you would've had to have played Cabal Ritual, which he could've forced, leaving you unable to Duress him, which would have given him a free untap and topdeck with ridiculous mana in hand.

Again, you are making my point for me.

[Necrologia]

Anyone who loves casting a Draw 7 in any situation except turn 1 on the play is playing the deck wrong.

Are Draw 7s strong cards? Yes, of course. That's why Long decks run them. However, they are still the weakest bombs in the deck since they have the highest chance to backfire. They refill your hand, but at the huge cost of also giving your opponent a fresh start. There's a reason Memory Jar is widely considered the best draw 7, it doesn't give your opponent a new hand if you draw crap off it.

At a tournament ages ago I was playing against Scott Limoges. I was running Long, he was running Mono Blue. At one point I forced a Wheel of Fortune through, after depleting his hand with a string of Duresses. I drew into 6x land ESG. Burn for 5 pass the turn. He on the other hand drew into something absurd like 2x drain 2x force. I died a few turns later to Colossus beats. If that wheel had been Bargain, Necro, Desire, or even Jar instead I likely would have won that game.

Necro, Bargain, and Mind's Desire all have a chance to not win you the game after they resolve. Unlike Draw 7s though, they don't have a component where they actively make your situation worse. Worst case scenario you hit nothing and just try again next turn. A bad Mind's Desire means you're in the same situation you started in. A bad draw 7 can cost you the game.

The point is that I'll gladly play cards that make me more likely to draw the good bombs, and less reliant on draw 7s.

[Stamford]

As for your example - it is ridiculous. You topdecked a second land so that you could cast Rituals off your Twister hand, and it still nearly fizzled - it had no tutors, and you were lucky to draw Mox Sapphire to cast that Brainstorm, and then lucky to find the Demonic Tutor. And I still don't understand how you had that game in hand, as your opponent drew quite a nutty hand and your retelling of the story leads me to believe that you had passed the turn after Duressing him - in which case he had mana open for the counter you didn't take with Duress. And had you tried to win without passing the turn, that means you would've had to have played Cabal Ritual, which he could've forced, leaving you unable to Duress him, which would have given him a free untap and topdeck with ridiculous mana in hand.

Again, you are making my point for me.

Even if i did not topdeck a second land/mana source, my Draw7 would still have resolved, since my opponent did not have a counter at all. I only needed that mana source, in case my opponent countered my Timetwister, which i then, have to Regrowth.
The chances of my drawing a mana source was, (22-2) / 53
which is approximately 20/50 and is 40%.
What about Street Wraith in that position? Would you even have kept that hand at all?

How do i not have the game in hand?

My hand is Cabal Ritual, Duress, Demonic Tutor, Yawg Bargain, Gemstone Mine while i am going to draw Imperial Seal next turn.
My board position is Sol Ring, Mox Sapphire, 2 Seas.

Even if i did not draw the Mox Sapphire, what makes you think i would not have won? Either way, i would Duress this turn, take away 1 counter.
Next turn, I Imperial Sealed for another Duress.
On the third turn, i Duress my opponent, which he countered, and now he have 2 cards in hand, (one of which is definitely a land), I proceeded to Cabal Ritual into Yawg Bargain with 18 life to spare.
What makes you think i needed that Mox Sapphire and/or Demonic Tutor in order to win? And why would i try to win on the turn i just drew my new 7 when im unsure whether he has a counter or not? The obvious choice was to Duress that turn and set up for the next turn.

Hell, i did not even try to win after Yawg Bargain resolved, i just drew 6 cards, saw a Mox Jet and a Duress, and Duressed my opponent stripping him of everything except 1 land.

Again, how do i not have the game in hand?

Since you already took 2 out of my 4 points to answer, why not answer the other 2 as well?

At a tournament ages ago I was playing against Scott Limoges. I was running Long, he was running Mono Blue. At one point I forced a Wheel of Fortune through, after depleting his hand with a string of Duresses. I drew into 6x land ESG. Burn for 5 pass the turn. He on the other hand drew into something absurd like 2x drain 2x force. I died a few turns later to Colossus beats. If that wheel had been Bargain, Necro, Desire, or even Jar instead I likely would have won that game.

Now what are the chances of you drawing 6 land and ESG from a Draw 7?

Assuming you already seen 3 mana sources out of the 22-23 Grim Long normally runs, you have 20/50 or 40% chance of seeing 1 or more mana sources, per draw. If Grim Long, one of the decks that pack the least amount of lands, could actually draw 6 out of the 11-12 lands it normally packs, that must be something wrong with your shuffling or you just happen to hit the lucky 4% chance of getting that.
Its equalvalent your opponent having the luck of his hand, drawing 2 Mana Drains and 2 FoWs when he only has 8/50 or 16% chance of seeing 1 or more counters, and he amazingly saw 4, which is around 3% chance of happening.

Grim Long has the highest threat density, more than any other deck, that means statistically, Grim Long will always have the chance of having the better hand after a Draw7.

The argument for FoW is not valid because you can also play Duress or Xantid Swarm.

[diopter]

As for your example - it is ridiculous. You topdecked a second land so that you could cast Rituals off your Twister hand, and it still nearly fizzled - it had no tutors, and you were lucky to draw Mox Sapphire to cast that Brainstorm, and then lucky to find the Demonic Tutor. And I still don't understand how you had that game in hand, as your opponent drew quite a nutty hand and your retelling of the story leads me to believe that you had passed the turn after Duressing him - in which case he had mana open for the counter you didn't take with Duress. And had you tried to win without passing the turn, that means you would've had to have played Cabal Ritual, which he could've forced, leaving you unable to Duress him, which would have given him a free untap and topdeck with ridiculous mana in hand.

Again, you are making my point for me.

Even if i did not topdeck a second land/mana source, my Draw7 would still have resolved, since my opponent did not have a counter at all. I only needed that mana source, in case my opponent countered my Timetwister, which i then, have to Regrowth.
The chances of my drawing a mana source was, (22-2) / 53
which is approximately 20/50 and is 40%.
What about Street Wraith in that position? Would you even have kept that hand at all?

How do i not have the game in hand?

My hand is Cabal Ritual, Duress, Demonic Tutor, Yawg Bargain, Gemstone Mine while i am going to draw Imperial Seal next turn.
My board position is Sol Ring, Mox Sapphire, 2 Seas.

Even if i did not draw the Mox Sapphire, what makes you think i would not have won? Either way, i would Duress this turn, take away 1 counter.
Next turn, I Imperial Sealed for another Duress.
On the third turn, i Duress my opponent, which he countered, and now he have 2 cards in hand, (one of which is definitely a land), I proceeded to Cabal Ritual into Yawg Bargain with 18 life to spare.
What makes you think i needed that Mox Sapphire and/or Demonic Tutor in order to win? And why would i try to win on the turn i just drew my new 7 when im unsure whether he has a counter or not? The obvious choice was to Duress that turn and set up for the next turn.

Hell, i did not even try to win after Yawg Bargain resolved, i just drew 6 cards, saw a Mox Jet and a Duress, and Duressed my opponent stripping him of everything except 1 land.

Again, how do i not have the game in hand?

I don't want to turn this into a lengthy and ultimately off-topic discussion of how some random Draw7 hand you posted is good or not. Suffice it to say that your sample Draw7 hand was average (which is to say that it was not very good), and it is the archetypical example of why Draw7's are suboptimal in combo - they are a double-edged sword, and by using them, you are allowing yourself infinite chances to fizzle and your opponent infinite chances to make you fizzle.

I've presented the math to you, presented good and valid and correct reasons why Street Wraith should be included in Long. I've even told you what to cut (some or all of the Draw7's) and what not to cut (lands), and explained the reasoning behind that. You are rejecting my arguments, which is of course well within your rights. But think about what I've said in my posts, the argumentation I've put forth:

- It was not easy to reject the power of the Draw7s for an effect that, on the surface, seems to be pathetic in comparison.
- Previous experience with this archetype has really led me to be unhappy with the Draw7's. This is  unfortunate, because I wanted them to be good when I started playing Long, and they were deceptively good on the surface. However, I often drew "okay" hands like you drew, and lost because of them.
- I've been happy while testing Wraith Long over a large sample of games (approx. 40), the deck's draws are tighter, getting to my fast mana is easier, and honestly that is where Long's true bottleneck is - fast mana. I am greatful for any effect that lets me draw all that good stuff while maintaining only my best bombs and my best disruption.
- The math backs up my observations.

[Necrologia]

@Stamford

You didn't get the point of my example. The odds of a draw7 giving you jank while the opponent draws very well are low. The odds of a Mind's Desire giving your opponent better cards than it gave you is zero. That's why Draw 7s are the weakest bombs in the deck. That's why increasing the chance to draw Bargain/Necro/Desire at the cost of draw 7s is a good thing. That's why Street Wraith is an excellent addition to Long.

- It was not easy to reject the power of the Draw7s for an effect that, on the surface, seems to be pathetic in comparison.
- Previous experience with this archetype has really led me to be unhappy with the Draw7's. This is  unfortunate, because I wanted them to be good when I started playing Long, and they were deceptively good on the surface. However, I often drew "okay" hands like you drew, and lost because of them.
- I've been happy while testing Wraith Long over a large sample of games (approx. 40), the deck's draws are tighter, getting to my fast mana is easier, and honestly that is where Long's true bottleneck is - fast mana. I am greatful for any effect that lets me draw all that good stuff while maintaining only my best bombs and my best disruption.
- The math backs up my observations.

In other words, what he said.

[Titanium Dragon]

 

BS into Street Wraith may not suck if you could put back 2 cards you dont want and shuffle away with a fetchland or tutor.

Well, also, if you have two junk cards, you can put them back and shuffle them away, then have a third chance at a non-junk card.

First, there is no need to be condescending. You usually only see 1-2 Wraiths, like you said. My point is you only get to cycle those 1-2 Wraiths, so you only get a 58-59 card deck. To actually thin your deck further you need to of course cycle more Wraiths. If you have the other 2-3 Wraiths sitting in your deck they hurt the odds you will draw a business spell. You might say "But if I draw another Wraith it doesn't matter because I can just cycle it". You can cycle 2nd Wraith, but you have to pay the life for it. The basic point is, the Wraiths do always give you the potential for a 56 card deck, but you have to be able/willing to cycle them if you draw them.

Your problem is that you aren’t thinking in terms of what you care about: your chances of seeing a particular spell. Your chance with 4x Street Wraith in your deck and 0 tutors goes from 1/60 to 1/56 on your first draw, 1/59 to 1/55 on your second draw, ect. Let’s say you draw 12 cards in the average game. This means (59!/47!)/(60!/48!) = 48/60 = 0.8 chance of not seeing the card in those 12 cards. That means you have a 20% chance of seeing that card. With 4x Street Wraith your chances of finding the card are (55!/43!)/(56!/44!) = 44/56 = 78.6%. So, by running 4x Street Wraith, you’ve increased your chances of seeing any particular card in your deck by 2.4%. For a 4-of:

(56!/44!)/(60!/48!) = 48*47*46*45/(60*59*58*57) = 0.40

So you have a 60% chance of finding one copy of a 4-of in the top 12 cards of your library. Conversely:

(52!/40!)/(56!/44!) = 44*43*42*41/(56*55*54*53) = 0.37.

So you have a 63% chance of finding one copy of a 4-of in the top 12 cards of your library with 4x Street Wraith.

Is this worth it? Probably not by itself given the associated costs. But it can be worth it if your deck has other reasons for running it – dredge cards, card disadvantage tutors, threshold enabling, sutured ghoul enabling, or whatever. A high redundancy deck also may run it, simply because it gets progressively better the more cards in your deck are "the same", and a deck where you have 56 great cards for it but need four more would run it because it keeps the same average power level.

[IceOaks]

Ok the reasion why i averagely drew about 2 street wraiths and sometimes 3 while goldfishing is cos i play full draw7s and draw 7s are like necro without the life loss but highly dependent on luck to get u a good card while with necro, u can pick n choose ur cards depending on how much life u pay...

And you out accelerate your opponents so much through Draw 7s that it can be quite deadly... Usually after one draw 7, it's over... Street Wraith does not really help in this case cos i'm already drawing 7 new cards and i'd rather have something more interesting to play than pay 2 life to take another card.

Maybe i'm playing Pitchlong wrong... If I am, could someone give me a few pointers?