1-Land Belcher

[Spacebalzz]

Just a question:

Say you were to play a Draw7 on Turn 1, and draw into Belcher and enough mana (three of which are permanent) to play it, but not activate it.  You are holding PoN.  On your opponents Turn 1, they Chain your Belcher.  Is it possible to play PoN on their Chain, and then win in response to the PoN's "lose the game" trigger on your next upkeep? 

If so, it seems that this deck could prove extremely viable.

[nicofromtokyo]

Is it possible to play PoN on their Chain, and then win in response to the PoN's "lose the game" trigger on your next upkeep? 

It is.

[Lelolith]

> 3 Summoners Pact
The FS pacts are not something one can call synergetic with Empty the Warrens, that means you will have dead cards in your hand a lot of times (either EtW or Pact).

Sorry, I put up an earlier list though your points are still valid. indeed which is why i run only three and moved a empty to the board to wish for.

>2 Gamble
It may be broken, but it may be very bad too, so probably a bad choice if you intend to win games more than you may loose them.

Indeed, which is why my version is REALLY Risky Business, i still think 2 is the right number but for now ill play only one as i test burning wish along side it, it is more to do with the deck ethic than any of the other tutors, and not im not playing black this gives me more consistancy in what i need also with the draw 7's it becomes a 1 in 7 at loosing what you just went to grab, plausable odds considering what this deck goes through.

>2 Sensei's Divining Top
Just too slow, you are playing a combo deck that wants to win turn one ore two, not an artifact that costs you mana and gives you neither draw nor mana. Just the opposite to Chromatic Star.

Totally Agree, but even for me chromatic star is still a minus 1 on the mana so i've cut that too.

>4 Serum Powder
I advice you to play with tutors instead, they help you a lot instead of praying having a good first hand to finally be countered by FoW.

I really think the best version plays Black (with rituals and tutors) but 2 lands are needed. I guess you should more axe your build towards the one which plays only Belcher + U & G Pacts + Street Wraith + Serum, OR axe it to a more stable version with BGR.

I dont think you'll dissuade me or most here of Serum powder, it being a hidden draw 7. Yes if you fear FoW then go off into empty the warrens. the skill in this deck is to go off inspite of Fow.

[netherspirit]

I've done some testing with the deck and have cut Serum Powder for Rite of Flame. It's much better!

I don't know.  I much prefer the Serum Powder as it allows me to thin the deck by 7 before the game even starts, giving me a greater concentration of threats effectively.  I can understand what you are syaing about Rite of Flame, but I have not had tourble with the Serum Powders in the maindeck.  It does remarkably well & you can toss out 7 cards you don't need that game.  Rite of Flame does add more mana, but is it worth extra free mulligans?  After all, mulliganning correctly is a fact of life in Belcher decks, especially one such as this that has a high probability of Turn 1 or Turn 2 Upkeep.

But I've found having Rite of Flame makes nearly every hand playable as you can so easily get going with the extra mana.

[GrandpaBelcher]

I think I'm confused.  What list is cutting Rite of Flame?  If you want to play Serum Powder, that's cool--it's a strong effect, and I'm sure it would help some in mulliganning and playing.  But I can think of lots of cards I'd cut before Rite of Flame in order to play Serum Powder.  Not knowing your list and in no particular order, I'd say any Wishes, Seething Song, Desperate Ritual, Red Blasts over four, Welders over three, Chromatic Stars, Summoner's Pact.

Rite of Flame is really good!  Two of them make a Belcher or an Empty!

[Spacebalzz]

Two words:

FINAL FORTUNE.

[madmanmike25]

I think I'm confused.  What list is cutting Rite of Flame?  ......

Rite of Flame is really good!  Two of them make a Belcher or an Empty!

This list didn't cut Rite, it never played it.  It is in the SB though and comes in against matches where the opponent doesn't play with FoW, which essentially makes the deck even faster.  You swap out PoN post SB for Rites.

If you are still running the same list Lochinvar, with Taiga's, Welders, etc.  then the Rites naturally stay in.  This list runs Summoner's Pact and PoN which EtW lists cannot do.  We must remember that there are at least 2 versions of Belcher:  one that favors slower, more stable cards and one whose only focus is to win asap.

On Serum Powder:  I really like the card in combo decks. Sometimes it wins the game but likewise, there have been times when I have drawn it and wished it were almost ANYTHING else.  But in my testing it has proven more useful than detrimental.  Hence the increased 'risk' of the deck.

I'm actually suprised that decks that run EtW don't use Serum Powder as they only have 2 draw 7's(Wheel and Jar) so it is highly unlikely that they will ever bump into a Serum when they don't want to.  It will either be in the opening hand, where it can be utilized, or they simply won't see it.

Two words:

FINAL FORTUNE.

Another 2 words:

Double Red.

Try it in decks that play with EtW though.  I really can't see it in 1-land Belcher since it has so few permanent Red mana sources and you will most likely be using two cards to cast that one spell to only draw one card.  Then again, you might just die during the Upkeep of your 'free' turn.

I still play the original list, but sadly will not get to take it to any major tournies to see it perform.  It is still a high risk/high return kind of deck and I still think it is viable in Vintage. 

A question for the people who play *slower* versions of belcher :  Since Vintage has gotten faster with decks like Hulk-Flash and faster Tendrils decks, do you still favor the typical 3 turns it takes to win with EtW???  Is first turn Welder-go, fast enough in todays meta?

[o uncola o]

This deck seems like it will be really good in todays meta.  It stomps Ichorid and can take game one from most other decks unless they have FoW in hand and even then potentially through your own PoN.  I prefer a list w/out EtW.  Even though EtW provides potential "slow wins", I do not feel that it it worth the decreased frequency of the "fast wins". 

[nicofromtokyo]

A question for the people who play *slower* versions of belcher :  Since Vintage has gotten faster with decks like Hulk-Flash and faster Tendrils decks, do you still favor the typical 3 turns it takes to win with EtW???  Is first turn Welder-go, fast enough in todays meta?

It's a good question, but the good answer probably doesn't exist. It depends of the match-ups, and that's all. In tournaments, I saw myself play like 10 tokens in turn one and loose anyway. Againt Fish or Stax, welder turn one is a great play, against Gifts it's just too slow. The EtW plan is also too slow against Gifts (Merchant+bounce pwns you). BUT, it's a necessary evil in the 3 colors deck, as you don't have disruption and only 4 Belchers are really really not enough. And, after all, it's very strong and can you win time to cast Belcher ftw after.
The 1-land-risky-version-with-PoN+Serum&onlyBelcher2kill is intersting, but the 3 colors version is more consistant, and, don't forget it, it kills turn 1 or 2 too.

[madmanmike25]

The EtW plan is also too slow against Gifts (Merchant+bounce pwns you).  BUT, it's a necessary evil in the 3 colors deck, as you don't have disruption and only 4 Belchers are really really not enough.

EtW is primarily a Stax wrecker. But, against a deck with tutors....not so hot.  Going all-in and losing to E.Truth blows.  I personally do not think Gifts is 'dead' now, they just get to add 3 more cards(Imp Seal, Personal Tutor, Intuition??)

Against Stax, I'm still debating on whether to add in EtW or Ancient Grudge for the SB.  I have no problem slowing the deck down AFTER game 1 to optimize the chances of winning.  I'm just not sold in a combo deck having so many options instead of just trying to win(regarding Belcher decks).

RE: 4 Belchers not being enough-
That's why I love Tinker so much.  It is essentially Belcher #5 or Memory Jar #2.  At worst, you can lose a Monolith/Vault/Star and fetch the Lotus for a 'free' color fixer.

The 1-land-risky-version-with-PoN+Serum&onlyBelcher2kill is intersting, but the 3 colors version is more consistant, and, don't forget it, it kills turn 1 or 2 too.

True, but it cannot win on turn 1/1.5 with the same frequency as 1-land Belcher does.  The point I was trying to make is that since combo and Ichorid seem to be the decks to play these days, would an EtW Belcher deck be as favorable as 1-land Belcher? 

I hope there is no doubt that the 'slower' versions cannot win as fast as this one.  Cards like Welder, Xantid, EtW, and Living Wish are what add the consistency at the price of speed.  Is this a good trade-off in Vintage today?

[GrandpaBelcher]

I have been testing this list all weekend, and I'm quite happy with it:

4x Serum Powder
4x Street Wraith
1x Wheel of Fortune
1x Memory Jar

4x Simian Spirit Guide
4x Elvish Spirit Guide
4x Rite of Flame
4x Tinder Wall
4x Land Grant
5x Mox
1x Chrome Mox
1x Black Lotus
1x Lotus Petal
1x Lion's Eye Diamond
1x Mana Crypt
1x Mana Vault
1x Sol Ring
1x Taiga
1x Channel

2x Empty the Warrens
2x Living Wish
4x Goblin Charbelcher

3x Pyroblast
2x Red Elemental Blast
3x Goblin Welder

I swear the sleeves melt together this deck is so hot.

Living Wish for Storm Entity is indeed as insane as I thought it would be, especially against decks that often give me fits like Null Rod fish.  Once the Entity gets up to 5/5 you can even start holding back some resources to make a comeback if they can tutor up bounce.

Charbelcher is still the preferred win condition and is so much better with Serum Powder because it's so much easier to find, play, and activate in one turn.  There are a few issues with Serum Powder (removing Taiga, too many win conditions, too much broken acceleration, or too many cards for four), but it really is like an uncounterable Draw 7 for just you, so the power more than makes up for it.  The best games I've had came from triple successive Powders to seven cards, one would have won through double Force on the first turn.

Empty the Warrens seems weak right now since everyone's playing answers to it and tutors to find the answers, but sometimes (okay, still a lot of times) it's enough.   Being able to Empty for six is great if you can back it up with Red Force or can get to another win quickly.  If you want more wins and fewer answers, you could run three EtW and four red blasts.  You could even try three Living Wishes and four red blasts.

Serum Powder and Street Wraith together are awesome.  At long last you can Street Wraith into Serum Powder!  Okay, that's bad, but still it seriously feels like you're playing with 52 cards.  Better still, Serum Powder is actually castable.  I've done it multiple times to build an extra storm or to crawl out of a hole against a deck like Fish that has a slow clock.

Sideboarding is a wholly different matter.  I have a few cards that are in--Tin Street Hooligan, Gorilla Shaman (I use him a LOT), 4th Welder, Storm Entity, Taiga, Workshop, Tolarian Academy--but there are still holes.  I feel like I want a sideboard that's three cards bigger.  Shattering Spree and Ancient Grudge I still feel are a toss-up; which picture do you like better?  Extra REBs seem unnecessary, but they could be nice, as could Bazaar.  And Xantid Swarm is terrible.  Does anyone have anything really good for the sideboard? 

[Tobi]

There are two cards missing in your deck...

[GrandpaBelcher]

No wonder it's so consistent!  It plays like it has 50 cards!

Really, it's Memory Jar and Wheel of Fortune.  I've added them to the list.

[nicofromtokyo]

I am still testing the deck, because I just love it  .

I was first playing RGB, because Belcher needs tutors and Dark Ritual is much too strong to be ignored. I had some good results with the deck, but wanted to play a more aggressive version. I gave a try to the RG version without Serum Powder, and was really disappointed. Then I tried to include Serum Powder, and was just KO'ed by the strength of the card. Instantly, the tutors became useless, and the need of Chromatic Star disappeared. Then I asked to myself, why should I play 2 colors when Red provides me all the mana I want to be broken turn 1? I decided to cut the ESG (+1 mana) and the Tinder Wall (+1 mana on the turn) for Desesperate Ritual (+1 mana) and Seething Song (+2 mana).
For Protection, I just cannot cut the Welder, who can get rid of Null Rod, CotV, Needle, DSC etc etc, and make come back Memory Jar or Belcher ftw. I am actually wondering about REB/Pyroblast and Pact of Negation for the 4 others slots. Here's the list I am using actually, list I like very much:

Mono-red Belcher / "BelcheRed"

2 Taiga
1 Black Lotus
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Chrome Mox
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Memory Jar
4 Serum Powder
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Land Grant
4 Street Wraith
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Rite of Flame
4 Deseperate Ritual
4 Seething Song
4 Empty the Warrens
4 Goblin Welder
4 REB
1 Wheel of Fortune

I am asking myself if cutting a Taiga for a Grim Monolith wouldn't make the deck better, while including PoN instead of the REB.

The list is not radically different from the others, except the fact that it stays concentrated on the red mana. So what makes the difference between the other lists, and what are the advantages compared to them?

Firstly, this version is easier to play. I know the deck is already not really skill intensive, but the work becomes more obvious now you only have to concentrate on red mana. You need SSG, Land Grant, Lotus x2, Ruby or Chrome to get a red mana to go crazy with the red pool. Mulligan choice are easier and easier to make. Serum Powder is stronger now, you can remove 7 cards 4 times without fearing anything, as all your deck is almost entirelly red, with 4x-cards.
Secondly, Street wraith becomes stronger too. Your chance to get red mana are increased, and unless you draw Serum Powder, you will (almost) always be happy with what you get. With several colors, you hope to draw the right mana, with only red, you are just thinning the deck and drawing red mana.
Thirdly, Sideboard becomes easier to decide. You have like 12 slots you can easily change (Street Wraith x4, REB/PoN x4, Welder x4). You can side-in 4 Shaterring Spree, 4 Pyroblast, 4 Leyline, 4 Pyroclasm on the main deck without loosing the speed of the deck.

The funny thing is the Legacy version is (almost?) better than the Vintage one. You just cut the SoLoMoxen and the Type 1 stuff for 4 LED, 4 Petal and 4 Chrome Mox + 4 Buring Wish & 3 Empty the Warrens.

I am still testing the deck, but this is the list I prefered within all the lists I played until today (like 3 tournaments with Belcher). Thanks by advance for any comments  .

[GrandpaBelcher]

I agree that mono-red or close to it is the way to go right now, especially with Serum Powder power.  Cutting black's tutors and blue's drawing are so easy when you have your own private Draw 7 to work with.

Here's the list that I've been playing recently, and I think it shares a lot with yours:

4x Serum Powder
4x Street Wraith

4x Goblin Charbelcher
2x Empty the Warrens

2x Living Wish
1x Memory Jar
4x Goblin Welder
2x Red Elemental Blast
3x Pyroblast

1x Chrome Mox
1x Sol Ring
1x Mana Crypt
1x Mana Vault
1x Lotus Petal
1x Lion’s Eye Diamond
1x Black Lotus
5x Moxen
4x Rite of Flame
4x Simian Spirit Guide
4x Elvish Spirit Guide
4x Land Grant
4x Tinder Wall
1x Channel
1x Taiga

Sideboard
1x Empty the Warrens
3x Tarmogoyf
2x Shattering Spree
2x Tin Street Hooligan
2x Gorilla Shaman
1x Storm Entity
1x Red Elemental Blast
1x Mishra’s Factory
1x Tolarian Academy
1x Taiga

As you can see I'm still running green for Living Wishes and Channel.  Channel is too good to cut in my opinion.  I rarely have trouble casting it (4 Land Grant, 4 ESG, 1 Emerald, 1 Petal, 1 Lotus, 1 Taiga, 1 Chrome Mox), and it's incredible against Stax and with Memory Jar.  Belcher is one of the few decks that has both a good reason and definite capability to run the card, and its mechanic is near Yawgmoth's Bargain in power, so I figure why not?  Living Wish is just good utility, though with the focus on the early turns I could see cutting it for acceleration.  My most common Wish targets are Academy/Shop and Storm Entity or Goyf.  Wishing for big creatures is sort of like my third and fourth Empty the Warrens; they're generally better for me against Fish than Belcher is.

I had some issues with the red acceleration, especially Seething Song.  It was always a bottleneck for me.  It's amazing for playing Empty the Warrens or Belcher with Blast backup, but opponents quickly learn that if they can counter the Seething Song, they should.  By that point you've already dropped half your hand or more and will have to rebuild.  Maybe it works better for you since you have only red acceleration and lots of it.  ESG I wouldn't cut either, even though it's essentially colorless mana for you.  It's free all the time no matter how many Spheres of Resistance your opponents have out and it might let you save a red mana to get Seething Song online with backup.

I ended up cutting Wheel of Fortune for the fourth Goblin Welder, and I haven't missed it.  There were a lot of times when Wheel would be like a bad Serum Powder and I'd get all mana or none and would die soon afterward.  Memory Jar on the other hand either pairs up with Welder in the first hand or finds me one in the second, and then things are really easy.  I won't go below four Welders again, but I could see putting Wheel back in at some point--it's just in the doghouse for me right now.  Wheel is really really good with four Empty the Warrens like you have, though.  My recommendation for you would be to try cutting a Seething Song for the Grim Monolith to try to get just that last bit of use out of your Welders.

Also, aren't Pyroblast and Red Blast amazing?

[bebe]

Lochinvar81

I like your newer build. I picked up Belcher very early on and played it at the first Canadian championships. At the time Fish was very common and everyone was running four Rods and counters - I ran into three Fish decks in a row. You can win through hate but I found I needed to go off early to have a fair chance. Now we have both Null Rod and CoV ( did not exist at the time of the earliest builds ) so we have more challenges. We did not have storm as an option but used janky cards as a second option. What I like about the new builds are two-fold ...

Great mana accelerators
The addition of a few EtWs
Serum Powder

The old builds almost needed to incorporate both blue or black or both. It made the deck unwieldy and much less redundant. This new build seems to be faster and more consistent. As you correctly stated the skill of the deck is working through the hate so a sideboard needs to have artifact removal for sure ( both creatures and other spells) and accelerators as the second option ( workshops, academies, extra land, a strip,  ).  I think you are on track with your sideboard suggestions so far. Just a few grudges and/or sprees are needed.

As to your build specifically ... I would add a strip to the side ( remove a tarmogoyf ) and put Welder back there for the Wheel main deck ( remove a another goyf or your second shaman ).

[policehq]

madmanmike,

Have you ever tested Wild Cantor as a 1-of in your 4color list? I find a mana filter from green into blue or black is needed a lot, and the one copy can be sought from a Summoner's Pact. I feel that it would be better than the 3rd Tinder Wall.

-hq

[madmanmike25]

@hq,
Yes, indeed I have.  You came to the same conclusion that I have; cantor makes SP even better. I am going to post a modified list fairly soon after some extreme testing.  I'll be in Vegas this weekend so maybe around Wed/Thurs I can show my latest list.  Don't expect to see EtW

[madmanmike25]

Ok, for fun I tested a 4 color version of Belcher again this time with a subtle difference.......I made it landless which allowed me to take out land grants(naturally).

My reasoning for doing so (besides merely to experiment) was because
1.) Belcher decks are filled with temporary mana sources.  Sometimes this does not allow you to activate Belcher a second time the next turn, even on the upkeep.  Belching for < 20 dmg without permanent mana has cost me several games.
2.)  Drawing into multiple Land Grants is bad.  I would usually be happy when Serum Powder took away a Land Grant, but rarely when it removed my lone land.  You can probably call this 'trying to streamline the deck'.
3.)  Sometimes I found myself able to Belch (and win) without the use of Land Grant or the lone land.
4.) An activated Belcher=win.  Always.  Don't toss Stifle/Trickbind at me pls as the point is that you will always do 20+ dmg.

Another thing I did was take out Street Wraith.  It is hard to say if it is the right/wrong call since their impact is so subtle.  I didn't really miss them.  I did notice, however, that mulligan decisions were slightly easier.... Powder and Wraith in your opening 7 is akin to only 5 cards.

Oh, and I still like Serum Powder in Belcher despite what others may have said.  It just works for me, I don't really know how else to put it.  Basically my personal rule is that if you have the option of using Serum OR a Draw7, use the Serum Powder unless you would have at least one mana floating if you were to use the Draw7.  You use the Serum Powder if you would not net any mana off the Draw7 because if your next 7 reveals a Serum Powder then you can use it again, instead of using the Draw7 with no extra mana and being stuck with 6 cards.  Using a Draw7 with 1+ mana floating helps compensate for drawing a Serum Powder.

The list:
Landless Belcher(AKA Dude, where's my Land Grant?)

Good Stuff: 22
4 Belcher
4 Serum Powder
4 PoN (Pact of Negation)
1 Yawg's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Tendrils of Storm Counting
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Tinker
1 Time Twister
1 Channel
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Memory Jar

Fixers: 4
2 Chromatic Star
2 Wild Cantor

'Free' Mana: 22
5 Moxen
1 Black Lotus
1 LED*
1 Mana Crypt
1 Lotus Petal
1 Chrome Mox*
4 ESG
4 SSG
4 SP(Summoner's Pact if you forgot)

Acceleration:12
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
4 Dark Ritual
4 Rite of Flame
1 Tinder Wall
1 Grim Monolith

Now the details.  8 Black spells, 3 Blue spells, 2 Green spells, 5 Red Spells and 2 R/G.

SP->Wild Cantor lead me back to the 4 color path.  Note that 4 Black spells and 4 Red spells are mana accelerants(Dark Ritual and Rite of Flame respectively).  One Green spell is a hyper-accelerant and the other is essentially a red lotus petal.

In my previous build I also had 2 Cabal Rituals and Necropotence, but then again I ran Land Grants and Bayou.  8 Black spells is plenty and I might even cut the Consultation though it has won for me on occasion.  The 5 Red, 2 Green, and 2 R/G aren't much of a problem due to ESG, SSG, and SP(thats why I keep the lone copy of Tinder Wall).  That leaves 11 spells to account for.  Lotus, Petal, On-color Mox, Chrome, and the 8 Fixers(thanks to SP->Cantor) should prove sufficient.  In a sense, Demonic Tutor is almost a fixer since I usually get Lotus with it.

Note the inclusion of Tendrils.  One copy is plenty.  I really, really don't want to see it in my opening 7.  It goes great with DT and YawgWill shenanigans.  And yes, it has given me turn 1 kills.

I played much this week to see if it would work and decided to write the outcomes of the last 30 games.  Don't worry, I'm not going to list play by play, only the wins/losses.  I figured 30 is a decent sample size.

Wins
Turn 1:     13
Turn 1.5:    3
Turn 2:       3
Turn 2.5:    0
Turn 3:       2
Turn 3.5:    1
Turn 4+:     2

Mulled to Death:    5
Death by Pact:      1

Almost 50% turn 1 wins leads me to think I should continue to tweak this list.  There may be something in these results.
5 Mulls death;  I didn't Mull below 4 and truth be told, most times I gave up at unkeepable hands of 5.  I suppose it is possible to get a Lotus and a Draw7 as your last 2 cards but I'm not that tenacious in goldfishing.

And for the record, I am not claiming this is the Belcher deck to play or that this is any better than other builds(including the original list).  Landless Belcher is just a possibility that needs to be explored whether it fails or succeeds.

If any math-heads have a suggestion as to the ratio of color fixers to spells, by all means chime in.  Any comments are also welcome, yes even ones that say put back in Land Grant + 1 Land and/or Wraith.  Off the top of my head I am considering taking out Consultation(as I said) and one PoN to reduce the occurence of having 2 PoN's in my 7 card hands.

[GrandpaBelcher]

That, good sir, is a radical list.  I won't even attempt to criticize it until I get the chance to try it out a little.  I'm just glad someone's finally thought to use Wild Cantor in their multicolored Belcher list.

One question, though... The 30 games you list, are they goldfishes or actual games.  I assume they're actual games because you were using Pacts (and died to one).  What were you testing against?

Thanks

[madmanmike25]

Radical indeed.  This is mostly an experiment with Belcher, I'm unsure whether it is viable or not but I will keep testing and share my results/findings.

The games were goldfishes.  I died to a SP after using it to cast a Draw7 and getting squat.  That taught me a good lesson, however the deck IS supposed to be aggressive. 

The reason they were only goldfishes is because I have another personal rule, I won't waste my time or someone else's if the deck isn't worthy.  Before I ask someone to 'playtest' I goldfish like mad to see if the deck can succeed on its own because if it can't, there is no point facing against an opponent if your deck craps out.

In addition to my last post I will add:

5.)  You don't ever show your hand to your opponent with Land Grant.  This has mattered several games where my opponent knew exactly what to counter.  You can also imagine how Cabal Therapy rapes you even harder, without ever paying for dinner.

Let me ask other Belchers out there:  What card do you value more, Street Wraith or Serum Powder??  Personally I'm leaning towards Powder as of late.

[GrandpaBelcher]

I wondered about the goldfishing because Belcher is one of those decks that always 'fishes amazingly but whose results rarely stand up in real life.  How many of those games could you play through Force of Will either with Pact or by having some sort of backup plan (e.g. if Belcher got countered, you could Wheel next turn)?  How many of those turn two and three wins would go through a Null Rod or even a first turn Sphere of Resistance.  Fifty percent is really strong (really), but there are always so many more possibilities in a real game.

If you want to see a similar experiment I made using my version of Belcher with both Serum Powders and Street Wraiths, check here.

Anyway...

Michigan Belcher Ben Perry and I had the rare opportunity for a Belcher mirror this weekend and talked a little about the mulligan aids, Serum Powder and Street Wraith.  We had just finished an epic match where his deck without Powder or Wraith demolished mine, which had both Powder and Wraith, in four total turns.  He and I talked about the applications a bit after the match, and I sent him this PM this week :

I've been thinking about Belcher for the past couple of days but haven't gotten around to actually testing anything so this is all still speculation.  I have a feeling that there's a choice to be made between Serum Powder and Street Wraith.  Both are amazing cards, but they're probably terrible together outside of Ichorid.  When you mulligan (with or without Powder) you're likely to find Street Wraith, which decreases the reliability of your mulligan since it's a wild-card.  Similarly, running four Street Wraith makes your deck smaller, so you're more likely to draw into your Serum Powders.  They're both powerful, but they butt heads.

Choosing one to play over the other is hard too, though.  Street Wraith is a far better topdeck for sure, even though it loses you two life.  However, it has the mulligan wild-card function with or without Serum Powder.  Powder, on the other hand, is a  terrible topdeck 19 times out of 20.  The only times it's good is in your opening hand, when it's amazing.  I have hardcast it to get around Engineered Explosives and to make more mana, but it's not really necessary and is usually just a waste of mana.

The problem is that Belcher, when its opening plays get disrupted, wants all of its topdecks to be powerful.  Serum Powder isn't good as a topdeck; Street Wraith is really hard to judge but has never disappointed me except when it draws Serum Powder.

Essentially, each card has its place.  Street Wraith is weaker overall, but it's more reliable and far and away the better topdeck.  Serum Powder is far more powerful (Free Draw 7, just for me?  Thank you!), but it's a terrible topdeck.  Both cards interfere with mulligan decisions, however.  You can't count on Street Wraith to be the card you absolutely need (though there is a huge chance it will be an accelerant), and just as there are Serum Powder hands that you want to Paris mulligan, there are Serum Powder hands that you want to keep.

My finding so far has been that I'm happiest when I get to use Serum Powder to mulligan because it gets the Serum Powder (and hopefully some other chaff) out of my deck.  How do you rate that--I like it best when it's not in my deck?

Right now my feeling is, yes to Street Wraith, no to Serum Powder.  But like I said, it will take some more testing to be sure.

By the way, in the second game of my match with Ben Perry, I mulled to five on the play knowing that I'd have to find something amazing.  Since I didn't, I passed doing nothing.  He drew for turn, Channeled into Memory Jar with red floating, Jarred into two Empty the Warrens for 42 tokens and Belcher for the win.  It was impressive. 

So here's to you, Mr. Michigan Belcher Guy (Real Men of Geeeenius...).

[BeatDominator]

-edit

Nevermind, always remember to read before you post kids!

[Harlequin]

Serum Powder is interesting ...

It makes sense to me in a deck like ichorid, where there is one clear objective: find Bazaar.   

It has an interesting problem in a deck that is not so Binary though.  If you draw it, one of two things happen: Its a 6 card keepable hand + Powder (essentially pre-mulling you from 7 to 6), or it a scrap hand allowing you to return to 7 cards. 

I'm having a hard time putting my point into words, so let me attack it from the opposite angel.  Assume you draw a 7 card hand, it has 1 dead card it (like an oath creature).  In this situation, you really are evaluating a 6 card hand.  So your choice is: are these 6 cards worse than a random 6 cards?  By mulling away that dead card, you're not ~really~ going from a 7 card hand to a 6 card hand. 

By running the powders, your really adding 4 dead cards that force you into making this type of decision.  Namely: are these X cards better than random X+1 cards?  Which I think it all-in-all a much harder (and possibly dangerously deceptive) choice over saying "are these X better than a random X-1 cards?" (a typical mulligan choice).

The other interesting thing about Powder is that your "random" cards are gathered without replacement.  So if your 6 cards are "below Average" you actually increase the "average power" of the deck.  However again, this can be dangerously deceptive, because even removing 1 copy of a key 4-of reduces your odds signifigantly so loosing something seemly inocent like a dark ritual could throw off your mana developement.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Street Wraith causes a similar choice, but I think much less deceptively.  In a Street Wraith hand, you're looking at are these 6 cards + 1 random card, likely to be better than 6 random cards.  Or Is X know cards + 1 unknown better than (X - 1) unknown cards.   

[GrandpaBelcher]

Exactly.

Serum Powder is acceptable (and tempting) in Belcher because it's likely that when you Powder with seven cards, you're removing one dead card and six redundant cards (mostly minor accelerants) from your deck.  That leaves you with 53 useful cards (well, 50 if you're running Serum Powder as a four-of) a greater density of which will be win conditions or stronger acceleration.  Hitting multiple Serum Powders when you mulligan is amazing with Belcher because all of your mulligans get better, especially if you remove things like extra Land Grants or two Serum Powders at one time.  If you have to Powder away good stuff like Lotus or a land (assuming you're playing four Land Grants) or something like Mana Crypt, everything sort of goes out the window.

You don't necessarily want Serum Powder in your opening hand, but you certainly don't want it in any hand after that.  It's a powerful card, but it's at its most poweful when you can get it out of your deck.  This is why I'm not sure if it's right for Belcher.  Your chances of a first turn goldfish increase, but if anything happens to that, you've shot yourself in the foot as you try to dig for an answer or another win or more acceleration and have to go through some blank cards on the way there.

I've hardcast Serum Powder before with Belcher--I don't like doing that.

[Harlequin]

Serum Powder is acceptable (and tempting) in Belcher because it's likely that when you Powder with seven cards, you're removing one dead card and six redundant cards (mostly minor accelerants) from your deck.

This is why I think it is dangerously deceptive.  to play a fragile combo deck like belcher - you need solid distribution.  When you draw your hand, you need 2-3 free mana's, a fixer, a mana accellerant, and some business (tutor, belcher, draw7).  So if you Powder away a poorly proportioned hand, your hurting the deck.  Sure you have more "bombs per square inch" so to speak, but you've removed the cards that get you from Step 1 to Step 3.  So I contest that what may seem like harmless off-color moxen, rituals, and spirit Guides ... may be hurting the curve more than helping. 

[GrandpaBelcher]

I totally agree.  At first Serum Powder promised great power, but in testing over the past couple of months, it's fallen flat.  Sometimes Serum Powder is amazing; sometimes it's utter poop.  And since the only times it can be amazing are the times when it's in your opening hand when you want to mulligan, those times are few and far between.  It's so tempting because there are times when it seems so good, but it's really not good enough in comparison to other options.

Serum Powder is better in a deck where there's a strong correlation between having one card of a four-of in your opening hand and winning the game.  Ichorid is the prime example: You have Bazaar, you likely win the game regardless of what the rest of your hand is.  The link isn't there in Belcher, though.  It's not as though having Belcher in your opening hand means you win because there are weak and unplayable and redundant cards.  Even having a powerful accelerant like Lotus doesn't mean you win since you might not have anything to use the mana on, or you might need Lotus to be a permanent mana source to fire the Belcher.

The only card that I honestly feel has a connection between being in my opening hand (or any hand) and winning, is Channel.  And that still means that I have to have a win condition and a double green mana.  Plus, you can't dig for a one-of with Serum Powder.

[nicofromtokyo]

Thanks for this new adaptation of the deck. Testing the more versions possible of the deck is definitly the best solution to find the best list. I will give a try to the list of course, but before that I would just like to point 2 problems that seem important to me:

The deck is probably better than the other versions IF you are on the play and IF you find a Belcher on your first hand.

You only have 4 disruptions (PoN), that means you're completly dead on a Duress, Cov, Null Rod, Needle, everything your opponent may play when you're on the draw. And well, you will be at least one time on the draw.

The risk not to draw a Belcher at all (even with Serum Powder), or to draw it too late without mana to cast it, exists. Draw7 are an alternative, but a risky one. Who never died to mulligan playing Ichorid, while searching for BoB? Of course you may draw the perfect hand for 100 matches, but never draw anything revelant for the 100 next matches, as you only have 4 cards (well, 5 with TInker) to kill instantly you opponent.

Ttys.

[madmanmike25]

Some good observations Lochinvar.  I have to agree that sometimes Wraith and Powder do not work so well together.  My opinion of Street Wraith (as said previously) is that it is only as good as the card on top of your library.  When Wraith gets me a Lotus, its awesome.  When I draw into an useless fixer or Powder, it blows.  All the while it messes with my mulligans.  If you have a Draw7 and only 2 mana to cast it and Wraith is in your hand, you must be Mr. Lucksack if you keep those hands and find that mana consistently.  Same with 3 mana hands and Belcher, Wraith would cause you to mulligan.

Again, when I do play with Wraith I don't really get the whole '56 card deck' feel.

Serum Powder is interesting ...

It has an interesting problem in a deck that is not so Binary though.  If you draw it, one of two things happen: Its a 6 card keepable hand + Powder (essentially pre-mulling you from 7 to 6), or it a scrap hand allowing you to return to 7 cards. 

Well, you have to look at it this way:  Some builds, like mine, have multiple Draw7's  while others merely have Jar and Wheel.  Let's examine the function of Powder and the Draw7's.

To say that if Powder is in your opening 7, you only have 6 cards to work with ("pre-mulligan") is a tad misleading.  The same is true of a Draw7 then.  This is of course assuming you cannot cast a Belcher.  The Draw7 functions in the same way(IN YOUR OPENING HAND).  It only has that one use, to let you see the next 7 cards.  My rational for including Serum Powder is that there are only several cards you WANT to see in your opening grip(in reference to my list):

4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Serum Powder
1 Tinker
1 Time Twiser
1 Memory Jar
1 Wheel of Fortune

And yes, I want to see Serum Powder in my opening 7.  It reduces the chance I will bump into them later.

That's only 12 cards and would be 8 cards if the Powder's were removed.  If it were only 8 cards, that would increase my mulligans quite a bit.  I learned that keeping a hand solely based on Ancestral Recall usually ends bad, so it is not included in the list.  Demonic Tutor is another card that works superbly in conjunction with other cards, but too much weight cannot be placed on it.  You cannot keep a hand with Channel unless you have double G and a Belcher.

Street Wraith causes a similar choice, but I think much less deceptively.  In a Street Wraith hand, you're looking at are these 6 cards + 1 random card, likely to be better than 6 random cards.  Or Is X know cards + 1 unknown better than (X - 1) unknown cards. 

Good question.   You need VERY strong opening hands in Belcher to actually have a shot.  Street Wraith doesn't let you decide that very well.  2 Wraiths in your hand?  What do you do?  If there was a way to guarantee that you only see Wraiths AFTER a Draw7 then they would own.  That pretty much makes them the exact opposite of Serum Powders.  I will disagree with you on one point though, I think Street Wraith is an EXTREMELY deceptive card.


I should probably expain something further to clear things up a bit.

It is my belief that game 1, Belcher should try to be as fast as possible.  I realize you do not always get to go first.  Games 2 and 3(if needed) can be slowed down when you have information on your opponent.  For example, against non FoW decks(like Ichroid and Stax) you have a HUGE advantage on the play.  Guess what, if they win game 1 you are going first game 2, so you need to capitalize on this.  I don't want people to think that I play every game with a first-turn win mentality.  Correct Sideboarding is key to playing the odds and maximizing your chances for victory.  Example:  Windfall can be added if on the play against Ichorid to give you another card you want to see in your opening 7.  Maindeck against an unknown opponent it isn't worth the risk, and could essentially cause you to 'mulligan' to a hand of 5 or less.

Oh, and I am diggin the lone copy of Tendrils.  That also helps give you fast wins with the Draw7's.

The deck is probably better than the other versions IF you are on the play and IF you find a Belcher on your first hand.

You only have 4 disruptions (PoN), that means you're completly dead on a Duress, Cov, Null Rod, Needle, everything your opponent may play when you're on the draw. And well, you will be at least one time on the draw.

Good points.  Duress, CotV, Null Rod, can hurt ALL combo decks.  I'm sure there are a handfull of people, but Maindeck Needles are so rare I can't be concerned with them.  The added Tendrils of Agony help a bit with the Null Rod issue.  But realistically, those are the breaks.  If you have a weak hand and lose your best card to  Duress, you have significantly lower chances to win.  You better pray that you topdeck like a madman.  This is combo though, that will happen.  The goal here is to find out if possible first/second turn wins will offset these situations.  But yeah Nico, I realize I have tons more Belching to do to tweak the list and see if this is an improvement.  You have to admit that the possibility of a landless Belcher list is interesting.

@ Loch,
I still like the R/G lists, they are pretty solid.  But I really do like the Pact spells though.  SP can now act as a fixer(cantor/tinder) or provide mana?  Pretty sweet.  A 'free' FoW at no card disadvantage to ensure your threats go through?  Good stuff.  I will play some more this weekend and tally up when I have counter back up or the possibility of casting another threat.  As a suggestion for your build, have you considered making your deck faster post SB against certain decks??

[madmanmike25]

Alright, here's what 30 goldfished games gave me this weekend:

Wins
Turn 1:     10-    4 games with PoN, 1 with backup*, used Serum 5 of the games, 8 times total.
Turn 1.5:    7-    3 games with PoN, 1 with backup*, used Serum 3 games, 4 times total.
Turn 2:       3-    1 with PoN, 1 with backup*, used Serum 2 games(once each)
Turn 2.5:    2-    0 with PoN, 0 backup*, used Serum 1 game(once)
Turn 3:       2-    1 with PoN, 0 backup*, used Serum 1 game(once)

Turn 4+:     6-    Does it matter? Turn 4 or higher is unnaceptable, unless your opponent
                                  has to wear a helmet.

Let me try to clarify it a bit.  I used Serum Powder on 5 of my turn 1 wins.  Some of those chained multiple Serum Powders making it a total of 8 times i used Serum Powder.

The only fast enough wins are on turn 3 or less.  Remember, these hands were unimpeded by an opponent.

*Backup: This means having either another Belcher that is castable or a Draw7 that is castable in my hand should my first attempt to Belch fail.  I felt it was important to distinguish between this kind of backup and having PoN.

-------------------------------
So, in a nutshell:

24 out of 30 games were won by turn 3.  Half(12) of those had some form of backup.

Serum Powders were used Half(12) of those 24 wins, and I used Serum Powder a total of 16 times.  One turn 1 victory used Powder 3 times and had Twister backup.

Concerning Backup, There are only SEVEN cards that can act as (non-PoN) backup since there are 8 total and you will be casting one. 

I guess the question is:  Are these(and previous) results enough to justify Belcher Game 1?  Keep in mind you can slow things down games 2/3, and even add EtW if you wish.  The 15 card SB can be suited to your playstyle.

Just thought I would share my results.

Mike