speed of vintage??

[squeegee]

ok, i have been reading the posts pretty steady now for a month or so, and i keep hearing two things that contradict eachother.  Half of the people are saying vintage is getting faster, and half are saying it is getting slower. 

since i have not really been playing post future sight and post restricted list changes, i dont really know.  i would imagine that since bomberman is doing well, it is slowing down a little, but i dont know for sure.

i am going to try to play again soon, so if anyone can help me out here that would be great. 

[netherspirit]

With the unrestriction of Gush and the emergence of Flash decks I'd say the format is getting faster. However, decks such as Flash can be disrupted easily, giving slower decks a chance as well.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

I think Vintage will slow down significantly now, actually. I have been testing GAT a lot lately and honestly, the deck is comparatively slow. It rarely wins before turn 4 against the goldfish, even. So Gush is not exactly speeding up the format. I mean, come on, the card cares about landdrops (yes I know Fastbond exists. In my experience trying to play GAT as a Fastbond-deck is a good way to loose many games you should win).
Than we have Flash and Ichorid coming in. At the moment everybody seems to run 4 SB Leylines for the two of them and the hate should keep them from popping up in too big numbers. But yes, if you're paired against these decks, god will the format be fast. The SB should be enough to carry you against Ichorid (as your maindeck won't anyway, usually). That leaves Flash. Here though GAT makes a huge difference because of the wide array of proactive and reactive disruption that is relevant on turn one the deck sports.
The biggest difference though is made through the often maligned (For whatever reason. I loved playing Gifts but the deck had a horrible effect on the format.) final restriction of Gifts Ungiven. The last two years since we put Gifted on the map as a combo-control-deck that dominated any other deck in the lategame (say differently, the only lategames I lost with Gifted was to my own huge play-errors) and still posed the threat of reasonably goldfishing you turn 3-4. As a result of Gifted's dominance in the lategame, everything raced to kill faster and faster (UW Fish using non-disruptive 2-power one-drops for the first time like, ever, Ritual-Gifts to be able to win faster thanks to Ritual + Duress replacing the Drain-acceleration, combo going from more disruptive decks like Intuition-Tendrils to all-in decks like GrimLong and Belcher). Everything sped up because the lategame was essentially owned by Gifted and what those decks had to race towards was winning on turn 3. Otherwise, why bother, Gifts would have been as fast.
In contrast todays late-game focussed decks are Slaver and Bomberman (as well as, somewhat, GAT), none of which come even close to Gifts goldfishing speed. With Gifts gone, these decks will actually win in the lategame once enough early disruption carries them there. With that in mind, those decks will add some disruption (and SB answers) to keep the new threats of Flash and Ichorid in check - be it Mana Leak, Duress or MD REB'S. The extra-disruption ameliorates the GrimLong matchup at the same time, something these decks will really enjoy and I'm quite sure we'll see more long, drawn out battles than we've seen in the last two years. And this time they won't just instantly end because one of the players pushed through a 4of.

Here you have it, the big argument why the DCI was right and all the bemoaners of the B/R change were wrong. I'm quite sure we enter one of the best t1-formats  in a long time, actually. And yes, even with Gush legal I by now think that GAT won't be too absurd. Control has become better since 2003. So has Stax. I think GAT will just be one of the toughest guys in town, not the single toughest.

[Shock Wave]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

[diopter]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

Flash and Ichorid had nothing to do with the B&R changes.
If you never had a turn 1 kill with Gifts you did not play it enough.

The format is slower. That is why Bomberman is top-tier, and URPhid can make top 8 at Myriad.

[Shock Wave]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

Flash and Ichorid had nothing to do with the B&R changes.
If you never had a turn 1 kill with Gifts you did not play it enough.

The format is slower. That is why Bomberman is top-tier, and URPhid can make top 8 at Myriad.

That was poorly worded. I know Flash and Ichorid had nothing to do with the change in the B&R list, I was merely referring to the period of their inception. Flash became available around the same time that B&R changes were made, and around this time Ichorid also got a huge boost from the new set.

It doesn't really matter what is "Top Tier" when you have the addition of decks that can nuke you before you have a chance to play your cards. The more decks that exist that have the potential to do this, and the more they are played, the faster the format.

Yes, Gifts could potentially kill you on Turn 1, but its essential "replacement archetype" (GAT) can do this with even greater frequency now. Sure, it's a very slight difference, but control is still combo- control. It's still really damn fast.

What does the viability of Bomberman have to do with anything? Just because 1 slow deck is viable, it doesn't imply that the format is slow. Did you see the URPhid list? It is running maindeck REB and Disrupt. It has to run Leyline in the board. The fact of the matter is that decks now need to hedge strongly against decks that win on either Turn 1 or 2 on a very consistent basis. That's another indication that the format has sped up.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

Flash and Ichorid are sure fast decks. Both are luckily to some extend covered by Sb-hate (Leylines in particular). In addition to this Flash is not much faster than GrimLong, though better able to protect itself against countermagic, while proactive disruption like Duress is quite effective. Most importantly, though, Flash has absolutely not the lategame power Gifts had. This means arming yourself with enough early disruption (especially Duress) to reach the lategame will actually usually result in a W for the game when against Gifts all you did was actually moving the game to its favorite playing field. Without Gifts control-decks will be able to simply carry even more early disruption for the combo-decks, making the control-decks even slower but at the same time render the combodecks imminently beatable. As a result we will probably see a lot of games evolve into disruption-slugfests early on that will be settled in the lategame. So far this trend seems to actually materialize, with Slaver, Bomberman and even UrPhid posting results. If this early disruption and SB hate is enough to actually make the control-matchup unfavorable for Flash, than it's impact on the metagame should remain low as far as numbers go. The slower control-decks would than be left battling it out with fast combo occupying about the same amount of "player-space" it does right now and all other decks either adapt to the new meta or die out (obviously we could see irregular spikes in Ichorid and Flash once people actually cut down on Leylines).

On the other hand I belive that Flash is far from fully optimized and finely tuned Flash-version might still turn out to be all it was hyped up to be and throw the format into a turn 1 killing frenzy. I sure hope the omnipresence of Duress and Leyline proves to much to overcome for the deck, though.

[diopter]

Shockwave:

I think in this format where broken things happen on turn 1, there is a natural pressure to start interacting earlier. Flash and Ichorid exacerbate that need. So you are correct that the format is "speeding up" in that there is a need to include *some* ways to interact on turn 0/1 besides Force of Will.

However, I think the presence of Bomberman at the top tables indicates that control strategies that don't shift into combo mode until the midgame are viable. You couldn't really say that convincingly while Gifts was around because Gifts overshadowed all of these strategies, on the basis of having a strong early game and a crushing midgame. Now it's different - GAT (arguably Gifts' replacement) doesn't goldfish on turn 3 the way Gifts does, so control can afford to focus on actually controlling the game instead of trying to race.

Also, Flash and Ichorid are pretty vulnerable to hate cards (read: Leyline), so landing those and properly maintaining them will bring you into the midgame with a singlehandedness that hate could never accomplish against Gifts or Grim Tutor. So in that sense the format is slower because the midgame actually matters and is actually achievable.

I guess it's a matter of what metrics you measure these things by.

[Imsomniac101]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

Flash and Ichorid had nothing to do with the B&R changes.
If you never had a turn 1 kill with Gifts you did not play it enough.

The format is slower. That is why Bomberman is top-tier, and URPhid can make top 8 at Myriad.

I'm calling you out on this. I've played like a few hundred matches with Gifts, and probably only have had a handful of turn 2 kills, and only 1 turn 1 kill. Its ability to kill that early is highly exaggerated. Turn 3 is pushing the deck to its limits.

[diopter]

The format has certainly gotten faster. Before the B&R changes, nobody had to worry about getting crushed by Flash, which kills very early (potentially on Turn 0) and often with counter backup. Ichorid has gotten considerably better, and severely limits opponents from making impactful plays before they die. The fact that 2 more extremely fast and consistent decks exist, regardless of whether they are vulnerable to disruption, indicates that the format has gotten faster. Control players are starting to opt for 1-mana solutions such as REB and Disrupt in the main, simply because they need to have fast disruption or just die. I don't see how these are indications of a format that has slowed down. Hell, even GAT can potentially kill you on Turn 1 with a good enough draw. I've never seen Gifts do that before.

Flash and Ichorid had nothing to do with the B&R changes.
If you never had a turn 1 kill with Gifts you did not play it enough.

The format is slower. That is why Bomberman is top-tier, and URPhid can make top 8 at Myriad.

I'm calling you out on this. I've played like a few hundred matches with Gifts, and probably only have had a handful of turn 2 kills, and only 1 turn 1 kill. Its ability to kill that early is highly exaggerated. Turn 3 is pushing the deck to its limits.

Take the comment in context. I am responding to Shockwave's implication that GAT can kill on turn 1 whereas Gifts cannot. Both are pretty improbable, however Gifts had the ability to do so just like GAT does, and a player with enough Gifts games under his belt knows this (as you do, having had the turn 1 kill).

Turn 3 was the goldfish speed for Ritual Gifts. Drain Gifts was slower but in the later stages of the pre-restriction metagame more and more top players were including more and more Rituals in their Gifts decks.

[Grand Inquisitor]

How fast are GAT vs Gifts

I think this is sort of distracting to the central point here.  What's important here is that Gifts is gone, and that GAT's early power is from a restricted card (fastbond).

This being said, I agree with Shockwave that the format's

potential

speed is definitely faster.  With Flash, and the pacts and ichorid enablers from FS, decks like Hulk Flash, Ichorid, Belcher, etc have all gotten stronger relative to other strategies.

Out of these monsters, only flash has shown itself capable of placing consistently.  Unfortunately, the evidence is starting to pile up (first Eudomania, then Hadley, now Blue Bell).  It's obvious there's still plenty of design space left to explore, so this deck may get better.

Is the format more 'coin flip'?  Yes.  However, the metagame develops in strange ways.  For example, predicting Fish's strength during Tog, predicting combo's absence after trinisphere, predicting bomberman's strength post-FS, weren't obvious to lots of people.  T1 tends to evolve answers pretty consistently; I'm not nearly ready to cry wolf over Flash, Ichorid, or, for that matter, Gush.

[Shock Wave]

I think in this format where broken things happen on turn 1, there is a natural pressure to start interacting earlier.

This to me has become a problem. The format has changed from one where broken things happen on Turn 1, to a format where the game is over on Turn 1 far too often.

Flash and Ichorid exacerbate that need. So you are correct that the format is "speeding up" in that there is a need to include *some* ways to interact on turn 0/1 besides Force of Will.

That is a classic example of distortion. Every deck in the format either needs to run Leyline in the board or have the potential to kill in the early game to survive. This is the need that Ichorid and Flash exacerbate.

However, I think the presence of Bomberman at the top tables indicates that control strategies that don't shift into combo mode until the midgame are viable. You couldn't really say that convincingly while Gifts was around because Gifts overshadowed all of these strategies, on the basis of having a strong early game and a crushing midgame. Now it's different - GAT (arguably Gifts' replacement) doesn't goldfish on turn 3 the way Gifts does, so control can afford to focus on actually controlling the game instead of trying to race.

Bomberman is successful because it is one of the few blue based decks left that can disrupt enough in the early game to survive and still maintain a decent game against GAT. Even so, it still has to run Leyline in the board to have a good chance of winning.

Also, Flash and Ichorid are pretty vulnerable to hate cards (read: Leyline), so landing those and properly maintaining them will bring you into the midgame with a singlehandedness that hate could never accomplish against Gifts or Grim Tutor. So in that sense the format is slower because the midgame actually matters and is actually achievable.

This sounds like the old Trinisphere argument, where you had to have a very narrow selection of answer cards to make it to the midgame. People were arguing, "Yeah, but if you have Wasteland or FoW, you might live!". Now people are arguing, "Well if you have Leyline in the board.... ". Clearly, the metagame is distorted. Look at the sideboards in the T8s. They are almost all running Leyline, even decks that cannot cast it. That's rather retarded.

I guess it's a matter of what metrics you measure these things by.

The metric I go by is: "Am I dead before I get a chance to play with greater frequency?"

[Aardshark]

The metric I go by is: "Am I dead before I get a chance to play with greater frequency?"

As a hulk-flash player over the last several weeks, I have to say that in my experience the answer to this question is "no".  Surprisingly, I have found myself winning (or losing) games later on average than I was before the flash eratta (when I played grim long).

While the deck certainly has the potential to win turn 1, in actuality I found myself casting flash turn 2.5 to 3 on average.  In the second tourney I switched to the sliver kill.  My primary motivation for doing so not so much avoiding hate (the only hate I dodge is pithing needle) but rather that I could cast and resolve virulent slivers and swing in a stalled gamestate.  I was likewise astounded by the number of games in which I actually resolved (and occasionally won with) Protean hulk, or off my opponent's bob's (sorry Albert).

Flash is certainly powerful and may not be optimized, but as currently constructed it *is* fragile, and unlike other combo decks (long, gifts, tps, etc), it gets weaker in a long game because it will draw redundant combo pieces and combo pieces it need to be in its deck.  In contrast, opponents facing grim long may stop the initial rush, only to have the combo deck explode in their face a few turns later (off any one of a large number of possible backbreaking topdecks) unless they sucessfully lock lock up the board.

All this is even more true of ichorid, which lacks a resonable backup plan.

The "all or nothing" nature of flash and ichorid has caused strong players to shy away from playing these decks in favor of slower, more controlish choices (and rightfully imo) -- because they know that to beat these decks all they need to do is stop the initial rush, and that's not so hard to do. The metagame (at least at Eudemonia, and I think elsewhere) has been literally flooded with fish, bomberman, and other controlling "solution" decks (see Web's winning, if suboptimal, deck last Eudemonia tournament).

In my opinion, 4 sideboard slots (in the form of LotV) to keep two of the faster combo decks in check is acceptable--and actually, given the small number of ichorid and flash decks actually showing up, I expect a few brave players eschew LotV in favor of broader disruption (which may of course lead to an ichorid comeback).

While I haven't yet played in a gush meta, I expect the introduction of gush to further slow the format for all the reasons Mon, Goblin Chief described.

In sum, the *practical* impact of flash and ichorid on my vintage metagame has paradoxically been to slow down the format, irrespective of the increased *potential* speed. 

But Norcal's a small meta and I'm just one guy.

[Shock Wave]

While the deck certainly has the potential to win turn 1, in actuality I found myself casting flash turn 2.5 to 3 on average.

When you actually win the game isn't the problem. The problem is that your potential to win the game before the game even begins is far too high. Not only do you have the potential to win very early, but you also have the potential to win very early with the accompaniment of protection against an opponent's FoW.

Flash is certainly powerful and may not be optimized, but as currently constructed it *is* fragile, and unlike other combo decks (long, gifts, tps, etc), it gets weaker in a long game because it will draw redundant combo pieces and combo pieces it need to be in its deck.  In contrast, opponents facing grim long may stop the initial rush, only to have the combo deck explode in their face a few turns later (off any one of a large number of possible backbreaking topdecks) unless they sucessfully lock lock up the board.

Grim Long is a borderline fair combo deck. It can win occasionally on Turn 1, within reasonable limits, but so seldom with protection that this possibility holds little relevance in the grand scheme of things. Flash can now win on Turn 1 or even on Turn 0 with protection. The nut high in Long killed your opponent on Turn 1. Now the nut high in Flash can kill you on Turn 0. A competent Flash player may kill you on Turn 2 or 3, but an incompetent player can just goldfish and kill you before the game starts with what is an unacceptable frequency.

The "all or nothing" nature of flash and ichorid has caused strong players to shy away from playing these decks in favor of slower, more controlish choices (and rightfully imo) -- because they know that to beat these decks all they need to do is stop the initial rush, and that's not so hard to do.

The "all or nothing" nature of these decks has effectively distorted the metagame, because almost every deck has to run Leyline of the Void in order to hedge against these strategies. Again, the problem is not that there aren't solutions to these decks, the problem is that the rest of the format is forced to hedge against them with a Turn 0 solution. This is a gross distortion of the format.

In my opinion, 4 sideboard slots (in the form of LotV) to keep two of the faster combo decks in check is acceptable--and actually, given the small number of ichorid and flash decks actually showing up, I expect a few brave players eschew LotV in favor of broader disruption (which may of course lead to an ichorid comeback).

In my opinion, forcing every viable deck to run a Turn 0 solution, in some cases which cannot even be hardcast (see Ben's Phid list) is not an acceptable solution to decks that have very little respect for player interaction. Remember, a lot of good players stayed away from Trinisphere based decks when it was unrestricted as well, however that did not prevent it from getting restricted, based on the premise that it was format distorting, brutally stifling to player interactivity, and extremely unfun.

In sum, the *practical* impact of flash and ichorid on my vintage metagame has paradoxically been to slow down the format, irrespective of the increased *potential* speed.

On the contrary, I'd contend that the practical impact of Flash and Ichorid are very comparable to the practical impact of Trinisphere. They've introduced a game-ending, interactivity stifling, combination of cards that does not respect the skilled nature of this game.

[Moxlotus]

For once, I am going to pretty much completely agree with Shockwave.

On the contrary, I'd contend that the practical impact of Flash and Ichorid are very comparable to the practical impact of Trinisphere. They've introduced a game-ending, interactivity stifling, combination of cards that does not respect the skilled nature of this game.

There is a key difference in Flash/Ichorid and trinisphere.  With trinisphere, you could actually still build your deck to compete.  Basic lands and wastes and the like.  With Ichorid, you just lose if you don't have leyline.  With flash, you just lose if you didn't hit leyline or play hate.dec.

Now the nut high in Flash can kill you on Turn 0. A competent Flash player may kill you on Turn 2 or 3, but an incompetent player can just goldfish and kill you before the game starts with what is an unacceptable frequency.
 

Definitely.  I saw a few different turn 1 kills with DOUBLE counterbackup yesterday.  I was on the receiving end of one of them.  It was just dumb.

The "all or nothing" nature of these decks has effectively distorted the metagame, because almost every deck has to run Leyline of the Void in order to hedge against these strategies. Again, the problem is not that there is aren't solutions to these decks, the problem is that the rest of the format is forced to hedge against them with a Turn 0 solution. This is a gross distortion of the format.

I agree.  The format isn't just trying to adapt--its flat out distorted with people playing leylines that can't actually cast the card.  Out of the 47 people in a tournament I played yesterday I'd bet a fair amount that close to 40 had them maindeck or in the board.

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

The "all or nothing" nature of flash and ichorid has caused strong players to shy away from playing these decks in favor of slower, more controlish choices (and rightfully imo) -- because they know that to beat these decks all they need to do is stop the initial rush, and that's not so hard to do.

The "all or nothing" nature of these decks has effectively distorted the metagame, because almost every deck has to run Leyline of the Void in order to hedge against these strategies. Again, the problem is not that there is aren't solutions to these decks, the problem is that the rest of the format is forced to hedge against them with a Turn 0 solution. This is a gross distortion of the format.

In my opinion, 4 sideboard slots (in the form of LotV) to keep two of the faster combo decks in check is acceptable--and actually, given the small number of ichorid and flash decks actually showing up, I expect a few brave players eschew LotV in favor of broader disruption (which may of course lead to an ichorid comeback).

In my opinion, forcing every viable deck to run a Turn 0 solution, in some cases which cannot even be hardcast (see Ben's Phid list) is not an acceptable solution to decks that have very little respect for player interaction. Remember, a lot of good players stayed away from Trinisphere based decks when it was unrestricted as well, however that did not prevent it from getting restricted, based on the premise that it was format distorting, brutally stifling to player interactivity, and extremely unfun.

In sum, the *practical* impact of flash and ichorid on my vintage metagame has paradoxically been to slow down the format, irrespective of the increased *potential* speed.

On the contrary, I'd contend that the practical impact of Flash and Ichorid are very comparable to the practical impact of Trinisphere. They've introduced a game-ending, interactivity stifling, combination of cards that does not respect the skilled nature of this game.

Here I'm fully agreeing with you, Shockwave. I also see the distorting effect Ichorid and Flash have on SBs and on some games and I'd be even happier with a meta where Flash got the axe. I just don't agree that the metagame has become faster than the 4 Gifts meta as a result, in general the opposite seems to be true.

[Smmenen]

It's my view that Vintage is slowing down *dramatically* since the restrictions and unrestrictions.   

Hulk Flash is not a very good deck.  A 33 person tournament is evidence of basically nothing.   Ichirid is an even worse deck (although ironically, destroys Flash).   Both decks are pretty awful, imo. 

As for Leyline being ominipresent, so is Force of Will.    Leyline should join Force as a major disruptive card in Vintage, and that is a good thing.  I've written about this at length:  http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14258.html

[desolutionist]

Hulk Flash is not a very good deck.  A 33 person tournament is evidence of basically nothing.   Ichirid is an even worse deck (although ironically, destroys Flash).   Both decks are pretty awful, imo.

Is 4 of 7 Flash decks top8ing in a 38 man tournament also evidence of nothing?

[Fred The Ev]

Hulk Flash is not a very good deck.  A 33 person tournament is evidence of basically nothing.   Ichirid is an even worse deck (although ironically, destroys Flash).   Both decks are pretty awful, imo.

Is 4 of 7 Flash decks top8ing in a 38 man tournament also evidence of nothing?

I quite agree. In a recent local tournament consisting of 4 rounds of swiss and maybe 15 players. A guy, who is widely considered to be an average-at-best player, won every round 2-0 with Hulk flash. In addition. At a recent 30-man mox tournament last weekend, 2 Flash decks entered, both went undefeated in 5 rounds of swiss, one o f them split for first, and one was in the top 4. The player who was in the top 4 had the deck handed to him that day, with no previous testing and no experience with the deck whatsoever. The guy didnt even know how to use body snatcher in case you draw a combo piece. I recall a top 4 match of Bomberman vs. Flash. Game one bomberman had no chance, getting killed turn 2 I believe. Game 2 the Bomberman player drew into a broken hand with library that was good against any deck but Flash. But because it had no Counter backup, he could not keep. He ended up mulling down to five and losing. That is one way that I think flash badly distorts the metagame, forcing decks to mulligan hands that would be good, but they simply cannot risk to keep vs. Flash.
No other deck can get a hand like.

Flash
Protean Hulk
Lotus
Land
Pact of Negation
Pact of Negation
Merchant Scroll

Other decks can have turn one kills, but having a turn one kill+Triple or even double counter backup was completely unheard of until Flash. The fact that a hand like this even has potential to exist shows the total brokenness of Flash. Even with tons of hate being sent against it-- Almost every player in the tourney was running leylines in their sideboard. 2 Flash decks still went undefeated in the swiss.

[Shock Wave]

It's my view that Vintage is slowing down *dramatically* since the restrictions and unrestrictions.   

Hulk Flash is not a very good deck.  A 33 person tournament is evidence of basically nothing.   Ichirid is an even worse deck (although ironically, destroys Flash).   Both decks are pretty awful, imo. 

As for Leyline being ominipresent, so is Force of Will.    Leyline should join Force as a major disruptive card in Vintage, and that is a good thing.  I've written about this at length:  http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14258.html

Oh, so most decks in the format should run Leyline, much like Force of Will, right? Wow, that's truly horrible. I remember some time ago you said that you agreed that Trinisphere was environment warping, and that it deserved restriction, and now suddenly you are an advocate for the warping of the environment. Truly bizarre.

[Aardshark]

When you actually win the game isn't the problem. The problem is that your potential to win the game before the game even begins is far too high. Not only do you have the potential to win very early, but you also have the potential to win very early with the accompaniment of protection against an opponent's FoW.

This position incomprehensible to me.  Meandeck tendrils had an absurdly high *potential* (probably higher than flash), yet was a nonevent in the metagame because it failed to win matches. 

Now, hulk-flash is undoubtedly a better deck then meandeck tendrils.  Just how good it is is subject to dispute.  Prior to its outburst at the very recent Bluebell tournament, Flash's results were mediocre--a top 8 or win here or there. 

Grim Long is a borderline fair combo deck.

I reserve the right to quote you on this.

It can win occasionally on Turn 1, within reasonable limits, but so seldom with protection that this possibility holds little relevance in the grand scheme of things. Flash can now win on Turn 1 or even on Turn 0 with protection. The nut high in Long killed your opponent on Turn 1. Now the nut high in Flash can kill you on Turn 0. A competent Flash player may kill you on Turn 2 or 3, but an incompetent player can just goldfish and kill you before the game starts with what is an unacceptable frequency.

I guess this comes down to priorities.  You focus on the "nut high", what a deck *might* do to you in the best case scenario.  I am much more concerned wiith how a deck is likely to perform.  Most vintage decks will win if they draw in the top 10 percentile, and most decks will lose if they draw poorly.  But tournaments are long haul.  Only by winning with average (or even somewhat below average) draws will a deck achieve tournament success. 

Flash is a high variance deck.  Its good draws are AMAZING -- nigh unbeatable, but its bad raws are crap (and it doesn't mulligan especially well, since it needs the combo pieces + mana in its hand asap).  And its mediocre draws are, well, slow and/or risky.  In my opinion, these aren't the makings of a "broken" deck.

The "all or nothing" nature of these decks has effectively distorted the metagame, because almost every deck has to run Leyline of the Void in order to hedge against these strategies. Again, the problem is not that there aren't solutions to these decks, the problem is that the rest of the format is forced to hedge against them with a Turn 0 solution. This is a gross distortion of the format.

I don't buy this. 

First, all good decks distort the format.  People run Massacre and old man in their sideboards because fish is a good deck.  People run global artifact bounce because workshop prison decks are strong.

Second, people run leylines because it presents an efficient solution to two of the fastest decks in the format, while at the same time disrupting many powerful cards in the format (will, welder, salvagers, etc).

I think that for me a deck is by definition not broken if players are adapting to it primarily by altering their sideboards.  That's what sideboards are for.

In my opinion, forcing every viable deck to run a Turn 0 solution, in some cases which cannot even be hardcast (see Ben's Phid list) is not an acceptable solution to decks that have very little respect for player interaction. Remember, a lot of good players stayed away from Trinisphere based decks when it was unrestricted as well, however that did not prevent it from getting restricted, based on the premise that it was format distorting, brutally stifling to player interactivity, and extremely unfun.
* * *
On the contrary, I'd contend that the practical impact of Flash and Ichorid are very comparable to the practical impact of Trinisphere. They've introduced a game-ending, interactivity stifling, combination of cards that does not respect the skilled nature of this game.

Ok, you got me.  Hulk flash is not much of a skill tester.  Mediocre players can pick up flash, draw well, and win tournaments (hell, I'm a case in point--I won half a mox jet with flash, and I'm not that great). Ichorid even moreso.
 
I can't really comment on the 3-sphere comparison because that was before my time, but many have acknowledged the parallel.  I'm loath to stoke a b/r discussion here but I will admit this: if cards that enable players to build powerful decks that are not particularly skill intensive are worthy of restriction, then flash/hulk or bazaar/serum powder are prime candidates.

But in my meta at least, these decks are not stifling interraction because they're not winning enough.  Rather, they're losing to slower disruption strategies, and as a consequence the format is slowing down.

For once, I am going to pretty much completely agree with Shockwave.
***
Definitely.  I saw a few different turn 1 kills with DOUBLE counterbackup yesterday.  I was on the receiving end of one of them.  It was just dumb.

Agreed this is dumb.  But for every draw like this, you're going to see ancestral recall --> sliver, land, summoner's pact (when you have hulk). 

The format isn't just trying to adapt--its flat out distorted with people playing leylines that can't actually cast the card.  Out of the 47 people in a tournament I played yesterday I'd bet a fair amount that close to 40 had them maindeck or in the board.

I just can't accept that forcing players to devote 4 sideboard slots to combating 2 deck (2 slots per deck) can constitute a "distortion".  Most decks are running leyline because its the most efficient solution to the problem. If all it takes to keep the two most "broken" decks in the format in check is running 4x LotV, then sign me up. 

Who cares whether you can cast it or not? (And everyone *can* cast leyline, since they play lotus.)  Most players plan to pay the alternative cost of their cards when available (even Decks that play swamps rarely hardcast leyline, and whens the last time you saw someone hardcast misdirection?).  I just don't see how this is relevant.

To me, a deck is distorting where its prominance in a metagame causes decks and strategies that used to be played to no longer be viable.  Hulk-flash distorted legacy.  Other combo was strictly inferior.  Goblins was made obsolete (oh wait, no it wasn't...).  As far as I know, there is nothing that would be viable but for hulk-flash and ichorid's prominance (in part because, as I said above, these decks are not prominant in my meta). Therefore, neither deck is in my mind distorting.

I do want to add, I have no dog in this fight.  Although I've been playing flash, and have grown fatigued with the deck because (1) it seems weak in the current meta, and (2) its not that interesting to play.

I can't explain blue bell. Either its an outlyer caused by small sample size and/or an unprepared meta, or hulk-flash is a lot stronger than I think. (And if that's true, then maybe its more of a skill tester than I realized....)

However, whatever the strengths or weaknesses of hulk-flash and ichorid, I am quite certain that the average number of turns per vintage match in the last two Northern California T1 tournaments has been greater than in those held before these two decks became legal.  Therefore, I can confidently say that in my meta at least vintage has slowed down.

[Moxlotus]

But in my meta at least, these decks are not stifling interraction because they're not winning enough.  Rather, they're losing to slower disruption strategies, and as a consequence the format is slowing down

Well, it won BlueBell.  Put 3 more in the top 8.  It also won a 47 Lotus tournament in Chicago (well, Flash-Rector did).  Another was in the top 8 and lost to 2 turn 1 kills.  This was with ~40 people playing maindeck or sideboard Leylines and building their decks to beat it.  If the entire room is hating on it, and it still does well enough and wins, there is a problem.  From what I hear, that's what Ravager's problem was.

Prior to its outburst at the very recent Bluebell tournament, Flash's results were mediocre--a top 8 or win here or there.

It took people a while to realize how good it was.  And to realize that the Sliver kill is unaffected by Planar Void, Pithing Needle, and Tormod's Crypt. 

Only by winning with average (or even somewhat below average) draws will a deck achieve tournament success.

The thing is, the average draw is a turn 1 Scroll for Flash (having basic island in play).  Turn 2 Pact/have the Hulk, flash with at least 1 counter backup. 

I can't really comment on the 3-sphere comparison because that was before my time, but many have acknowledged the parallel.  I'm loath to stoke a b/r discussion here but I will admit this: if cards that enable players to build powerful decks that are not particularly skill intensive are worthy of restriction, then flash/hulk or bazaar/serum powder are prime candidates. 

The argument against trinisphere was that if they just had their 2 card combo turn 1, they ahve 3 timewalks.  Your answers were wasteland and basic island and force.  And turn 2 it got much worse.  That was enough to get it restricted.  I was vehemently opposed to its restriction because I felt there was enough outs against a turn 1 trinisphere.  Now, if they have their 2 card combo (one of which can be 8 cards with green pact), they WIN THE GAME, unless you have leyline or force--and if you have force they would average 1 counter since they run between 11 and 15.  And a turn 2 flash is just as good as a turn 1 flash.

  If all it takes to keep the two most "broken" decks in the format in check is running 4x LotV, then sign me up. 

The thing is, it doesn't keep them in check.  It offers a 40% chance of having a speedbump and hoping your deck can win before they can find one of their numerous bounce spells.  It isn't a check--it is your only prayer.

Other combo was strictly inferior

I would argue that Long is obsolete when you could play Flash.  Much less risky, much more protection.  Much faster average kill.  It doesn't get hosed by leyline as much--but Belcher didn't in Legacy and that was classified as completely outclassed.

[Aardshark]

Moxlotus, these are entirely different arguments from Shock Wave's. My experience is different from the examples you cite.  If the BlueBell results become typical then we're likely headed for a classic case of dominance -- in which case the format will indeed have sped up. (I'm not sure about the other tournaments you mention, as I haven't been following recent results so closely.)

(Looks like I should sit down and practice with my deck, and give it another spin before I abandon it.)

[Shock Wave]

This position incomprehensible to me.  Meandeck tendrils had an absurdly high *potential* (probably higher than flash), yet was a nonevent in the metagame because it failed to win matches.

The difference is that Flash has a high Turn 1 win rate and it wins matches. This is specifically because the deck doesn't cave to FoW. When a deck is so strong that it can win on Turn 1, through an opponent's FoW, more than once in a blue moon, this implies a serious problem archetype.

I guess this comes down to priorities.  You focus on the "nut high", what a deck *might* do to you in the best case scenario.  I am much more concerned wiith how a deck is likely to perform.  Most vintage decks will win if they draw in the top 10 percentile, and most decks will lose if they draw poorly.  But tournaments are long haul.  Only by winning with average (or even somewhat below average) draws will a deck achieve tournament success.

Performance isn't the only indication of a problem archetype, and even so, Flash has demonstrated recently that it is a proven contender. We have decks in the format that don't care about what their opponent is doing because their strategies are indifferent to any sort of interactivity (Ichorid moreso than Flash). That's a serious problem. This game revolves around interactivity. This is Magic, not blackjack. If I wanted to flip coins for fun, I'd stay at home instead of going to tournaments. This is the same reason Trinisphere was restricted: it prevented players from playing their cards. When Flash kills you on Turn 1, you didn't get a chance to play your cards. See Forsythe's quote:

"Vintage, like the other formats with large card pools, always runs the risk of becoming non-interactive, meaning the games are little more than both players “goldfishing” to see who can win first. Trinisphere adds to that problem by literally preventing the opponent from playing spells. We don't want Magic to be about that, especially not that easily. If combo rears its head, we'll worry about it later. But for now, we want to people to play their cards. Really."

Can you see why Flash is a problem now?

Flash is a high variance deck.  Its good draws are AMAZING -- nigh unbeatable, but its bad raws are crap (and it doesn't mulligan especially well, since it needs the combo pieces + mana in its hand asap).  And its mediocre draws are, well, slow and/or risky.  In my opinion, these aren't the makings of a "broken" deck.

A deck that can mulligan into a 5 card turn 1 win with backup is pretty damn good where I come from. Have you read the tournament reports? Some of the matchup summaries are absolutely ludicrous. Players trading mulls into Turn 1 wins with protection. Wow, fun.

First, all good decks distort the format.  People run Massacre and old man in their sideboards because fish is a good deck.  People run global artifact bounce because workshop prison decks are strong.

Those are not examples of distortion. Fish and Workshop decks do not define Type 1, they are but elements of a pool of viable archetypes. A deck is environment warping when it forces every other deck in the environment to hedge strongly against it. Ichorid and Flash are prime examples. They force archetypes to utilize LotV in either the main or in the sideboard in order to have a fighting chance. This is an example of one or two archetypes severely constricting the rest of the archetype pool into a position where they absolutely must conform to a specific solution. We've already seen this happen at GP Columbus in Legacy, and it seems inevitable that it will happen in Vintage as well.

To add insult to injury, not only is it horrible that decks are forced to sideboard 4 LotV, it's not even a very good solution because it forces decks to mulligan into hands that have them in their opening grip. For example, your opening 7 may be a great hand against any other archetype, but because you don't have a Leyline, you're forced to mulligan into a crappy hand that has a Leyline, simply because Leyline is pretty much your only hope. That's ridiculous.

Second, people run leylines because it presents an efficient solution to two of the fastest decks in the format, while at the same time disrupting many powerful cards in the format (will, welder, salvagers, etc).

Oh goodness, you must be kidding. Leyline is horrible against almost anything but Flash and Ichorid. Nobody would even run these cards if it wasn't for these two decks. Leyline against Bomberman, Slaver, Fish, Long?! These decks will walk right through your Leyline as if it weren't even there.

I think that for me a deck is by definition not broken if players are adapting to it primarily by altering their sideboards.  That's what sideboards are for.

That's an extremely lax definition of a broken deck. We could all "adapt" to Black Lotus becoming unrestricted by running 4 Null Rods and 4 Chalices main in every deck, 4 Annuls and 4 Nix in the sideboard. It does not make sense to adapt to an environment warping archetype because it severely reduces the amount of viable decks and strategies in the archetype pool.

Who cares whether you can cast it or not? (And everyone *can* cast leyline, since they play lotus.)  Most players plan to pay the alternative cost of their cards when available (even Decks that play swamps rarely hardcast leyline, and whens the last time you saw someone hardcast misdirection?).  I just don't see how this is relevant.

It is extremely relevant, because the rest of your hand also matters when you're forced to mulligan into Leyline, as I've already stated above. If you have to mull to 5 to get a Leyline, and your only way of actually casting it is via Black Lotus, you essentially have 3 dead draws in your deck. Not only that, but since you're aggressively mulling into Leyline, it's very possible that the rest of your hand is awful but only keepable on the strength of Leyline. As a result, decks that need Leyline to survive post SB but don't have a way of actually casting it are even weaker in games 2 and 3 in matchups where finding LotV in your opening grip is necessary.

[Raph Caron]

I'm sorry to reopen this discussion, but I wanted to know if the different protagonists were still thinking the same way, a month later. I can see that the debates we've had in the past are still the same... It's nice to see that some people like Shock Wave are following the same philosophy I used in the past. Vintage should be the format where you play with broken cards, not broken hands.

I've played vintage only once this year and one of the first thing I was told was to play 4 Leylines. We used to say that FoW was «the glue that kept Vintage together» or something... Is Leyline joining it?

*Feel free to edit/move my post if it's misplaced. I haven't posted in a while...

[Zherbus]

K-Run!

I've played vintage only once this year and one of the first thing I was told was to play 4 Leylines. We used to say that FoW was «the glue that kept Vintage together» or something... Is Leyline joining it?

Yes, for now. Smmenen wrote that it's joining FoW as the Epoxy that holds Vintage together. Actually, I gave him that wordplay, but he was thinking it. And I think we all were, especially when Ichorid was at a high. I fear that if something gets done about Flash, Ichorid will still make the card a necessity for the SB.

[Guli]

It's my view that Vintage is slowing down *dramatically* since the restrictions and unrestrictions.   

Hulk Flash is not a very good deck.  A 33 person tournament is evidence of basically nothing.   Ichirid is an even worse deck (although ironically, destroys Flash).   Both decks are pretty awful, imo. 

As for Leyline being ominipresent, so is Force of Will.    Leyline should join Force as a major disruptive card in Vintage, and that is a good thing.  I've written about this at length:  http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14258.html

Oh, so most decks in the format should run Leyline, much like Force of Will, right? Wow, that's truly horrible. I remember some time ago you said that you agreed that Trinisphere was environment warping, and that it deserved restriction, and now suddenly you are an advocate for the warping of the environment. Truly bizarre.

Lets not forget the fact that even with force and leyline you still need both to survive the early game. Having 1 force in your opening hand doesn't mean much anymore. Leyline does though. I think Smmenen is just trying to point out you NEED those cards in order to stand a chance if you are not playing ichorid/flash yourself.

You know what i think. In time flash and ichorid will still have to adapt or disappear because if so many people start playing leyline its gonna be damn hard to win a tourney. Personally i agree with Smmenen about icho and flash being terrible decks. I would never ever play them. Recently i received a lot criticism about using gamble and storm entity for gat. I think Gamble is much less risky than playing ichorid with so many leylines around.

[Vegeta2711]

You know what i think. In time flash and ichorid will still have to adapt or disappear because if so many people start playing leyline its gonna be damn hard to win a tourney.

See I would totally agree with this if Ichorid or Flash actually lost matches because of Leyline. The key difference there is they lose games to it. Leyline is very beatable post-board by Ichorid and I've already gone over the pluses of Flash against certain hate cards in other threads.

[Prometheon]

This position incomprehensible to me.  Meandeck tendrils had an absurdly high *potential* (probably higher than flash), yet was a nonevent in the metagame because it failed to win matches. 

Now, hulk-flash is undoubtedly a better deck then meandeck tendrils.  Just how good it is is subject to dispute.  Prior to its outburst at the very recent Bluebell tournament, Flash's results were mediocre--a top 8 or win here or there. 

...

I guess this comes down to priorities.  You focus on the "nut high", what a deck *might* do to you in the best case scenario.  I am much more concerned wiith how a deck is likely to perform.  Most vintage decks will win if they draw in the top 10 percentile, and most decks will lose if they draw poorly.  But tournaments are long haul.  Only by winning with average (or even somewhat below average) draws will a deck achieve tournament success. 

Flash is a high variance deck.  Its good draws are AMAZING -- nigh unbeatable, but its bad raws are crap (and it doesn't mulligan especially well, since it needs the combo pieces + mana in its hand asap).  And its mediocre draws are, well, slow and/or risky.  In my opinion, these aren't the makings of a "broken" deck.

I disagree completely. When I look at Flash and Ichorid, I see tournament success as one of the least important factors. Lets say I spend 35 bucks and an afternoon to go play Magic. I get paired against Flash and Ichorid respectively, and I get wrecked by ridiculous nut draws where I have no potential to interact, and skill is not a factor. I am now out of contention.

It doesn't matter to me whether or not those decks draw like crap for the rest of the day and go 2-3, what matters to me is that inevitably these "high-variance" decks draw completely ridiculous hands and ruin what Magic is supposed to be about. Yes, every deck has this potential (like Long, Gifts, etc.) but I feel like Flash pushes it beyond some imaginary line of acceptability.

I think that tournament success is the wrong benchmark to be judging these decks on (even though Flash has enjoyed plenty of it.)

[Shock Wave]

I'm sorry to reopen this discussion, but I wanted to know if the different protagonists were still thinking the same way, a month later. I can see that the debates we've had in the past are still the same... It's nice to see that some people like Shock Wave are following the same philosophy I used in the past. Vintage should be the format where you play with broken cards, not broken hands.

I've played vintage only once this year and one of the first thing I was told was to play 4 Leylines. We used to say that FoW was «the glue that kept Vintage together» or something... Is Leyline joining it?

*Feel free to edit/move my post if it's misplaced. I haven't posted in a while...

Raph! Long time bud. I haven't changed my mind at all about Flash, Ichorid. Also, I applaud WotC for having the stones to make a B&R change, but I think it turned out for the worse this time around. If Gush continues to wreak havoc the way it is, I think it should go back to its home ASAP, on the basis of defining an overly dominant archetype.

I long for the days when Grim Long was the combo deck to beat, and Control Slaver was viable. I think if were to go back to that metagame, with Gifts restricted (and Merchant Scroll too), we would have a whole slew of playable decks. It's kinda tough right now when the game is won for 1U on Turn 1.