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Author Topic: Six of One, Half Dozen of the Other  (Read 134810 times)
Harlequin
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« Reply #420 on: September 25, 2009, 03:41:25 pm »

Anyone have an estimate on how many boxes in general are printed for the first run? 
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« Reply #421 on: October 19, 2009, 04:44:03 pm »

I don't remember exactly how this started, but a couple of months ago I was thinking about supply curves in the context of power.

There is a finite amount of power: 22,000 copies printed per card.    I suggested that this was more than enough to satiate and even grow the Vintage scene in the US, since our goal is modest: we just want a few tournaments of 200 players per year.  That's more than enough to get SCG back in our court. 

In economic theory, it is suggested that fixed supply curves are perfectly vertical.  This makes sense to a certain extent.  It suggests that given a fixed supply of something, the primary driver that causes a marginal change in price is a shift in a demand.

In the short term, the supply of power is relatively small.   Most people would not sell their power at market price, both because they want to keep their power and because dealers wouldn't sell power for less than they bought it.   These facts keep prices for power 'sticky.'   The higher it goes, the longer it takes for a price to fall, even when demand has fallen.   Juzam Djinn is a case in point.

In the mid-1990s, that card rose to $200.    Today, the demand for Juzam is exclusively collectors, etc.   As the card is no longer tournament playable.    The demand dropped precipitously, but it's price has never fallen accordingly.   It's still a $100ish card.   Part of it is the simple idea: once a thing has value it will be perceived by others to have value and thus retain it based on perception, since perception of value = value. 





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« Reply #422 on: October 19, 2009, 07:44:41 pm »

Yeah, Juzam's value is just inertia.
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« Reply #423 on: October 19, 2009, 09:42:13 pm »

I started that post because I had the thought that fixed supply curves are not actually vertical, but kinked.  But now I can't remember my reasoning :p   When I remember, I'll post it and I'll post my view of what fixed supply curves should look like.
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« Reply #424 on: November 06, 2009, 08:43:44 pm »

What would it take to get 2-3, 200 player Vintage tournaments going a year?   
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« Reply #425 on: November 06, 2009, 09:57:10 pm »

What would it take to get 2-3, 200 player Vintage tournaments going a year?    

Incentives of attending sufficient to outweigh the costs of attending (most notably, travel cost and time).

Edit: for a LOT of people.

Also, this post isn't meant to be silly. I think this is just the framework one should have when contemplating this sort of thing.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2009, 09:59:43 pm by Yare » Logged
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« Reply #426 on: November 07, 2009, 12:59:02 am »

What would it take to get 2-3, 200 player Vintage tournaments going a year?    

Incentives of attending sufficient to outweigh the costs of attending (most notably, travel cost and time).

Edit: for a LOT of people.

Also, this post isn't meant to be silly. I think this is just the framework one should have when contemplating this sort of thing.

What would those incentives be?    What is the value of playing in an 8 round tournament, just for fun?  What is that worth? 
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« Reply #427 on: November 07, 2009, 11:02:29 am »

What would it take to get 2-3, 200 player Vintage tournaments going a year?   

A TO willing to risk losing 3-5k. 
An active Vintage community that would actually show up.

So far you're 0 for 2.
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« Reply #428 on: November 07, 2009, 01:11:59 pm »

I posted this a while ago in another thread:

Quote
When I say disincentives, I mean things that make people not want to play, which, yes, does include things such as monetary costs (card costs, travel costs, venue costs, tournament entry fee costs, "extra" food costs created by having to not eat at home, hotel costs, etc.) but also things such as time lost (traveling to a venue, time lost due to a tournament not being well run, time lost scouring eBay for a bargain to get cards cheaper or finding cards at all), or the tournament just not being fun (broken bathroom, no air conditioning, players are jerks, deck doesn't win, deck isn't fun to play, opponents' decks aren't fun to play, restricted list changes too often to allow for consistency, etc.). Benefits include things such as prize support, yes, but also the community, how fun the event is, how good the venue is, and so on.

Other issues might include announcing the tournament early enough so that people have time to plan to attend it. Based upon the thread in the announcement forum talking about a huge tournament, there appears to at least be some interest in a huge event, but I don't know that it is enough based upon the information available.

You can avoid the risk for the TO if he guarantees prizes at tiers. This, of course, would discourage (though not necessarily destroy) attendance.

I think there are potentially enough players to have such a large event, depending upon where it was held. I think the travel issue is the biggest issue in the US regarding attendance in that the players are out there, they're just too spread out. I would suggest that players are fairly indifferent to travelling anywhere from a few minutes to an hour or so, but then dislike traveling farther (probably in a linear fashion) beyond that.

I've also talked about trying to get a major event sanctioned, but of course the sanctioning issue has been discussed to death. I think I mention my thoughts on it here (along with a lot of other things), though you've seen that before.
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« Reply #429 on: November 07, 2009, 11:45:32 pm »

You can avoid the risk for the TO if he guarantees prizes at tiers. This, of course, would discourage (though not necessarily destroy) attendance.

Tiered prizes will kill attendance.  Who's going to fly in from far corners of the US, let alone other countries, for a tournament that might end up being 40 people for a Lotus and a Mox?
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« Reply #430 on: November 08, 2009, 12:03:43 am »

You can avoid the risk for the TO if he guarantees prizes at tiers. This, of course, would discourage (though not necessarily destroy) attendance.

Tiered prizes will kill attendance.  Who's going to fly in from far corners of the US, let alone other countries, for a tournament that might end up being 40 people for a Lotus and a Mox?

Yeah, I can't argue with that.
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« Reply #431 on: November 09, 2009, 09:51:44 am »

I've been talking to a TO who is trying to get large tournaments going as well.  What he noted is that for most of these events, people make some stark calculations about what they can win and what it'll cost them.  If the top prize is a grand, that puts a hard limit on how far they're willing to go travel.  If they can qualify for the PT; that prize you can't put financial value on.  I think you have to take the Waterbury route and make it more than a single tournament, but a full event or show.  Side events, artists, etc.
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« Reply #432 on: November 09, 2009, 10:45:54 am »

When Rich and I were talking about this issue this past summer, he raised the possibility of a large event by not one single organizer, but a consortium of people.  I said that that was one of the best solutions to the dilemma of large events, and continue to think so.

First and most importantly, it fractionates the potential losses involved with a large-size Vintage event.  The older TMD'ers should remember Bryce (kl0wn) running The TMD Championship.  The event conflicted with another tournament in the same region, the location was difficult for some people to manage, and attendance fell short of expectations.  I don't remember the exact figures, but let's assume for the sake of argument it was $1,000.

One thousand dollars is a significant financial loss.  But what if it wasn't borne by just one person?  What if we had four or five different organizers contributing part of the prize pool and the costs for the venue?  Now the loss goes down to $200-$250.  Still not a welcome prospect, but now we're not talking about the kind of liability that someone might have to make changes in their lifestyle to recoup.  

Second and relatedly, it also divides the amount of work that would otherwise fall on the shoulders of one person to do.  I've never organized an event myself, and definitely nothing on the scale of Waterbury.  But I've showed up while Ray is still in the planning and preparation stages of his events, and it looked like a pretty big time sink.  But here again, 4-5 pairs of hands can accomplish those tasks much faster.

Pouring all that work into a tournament only to be rewarded with -$1,000 was, I'm sure, a terribly frustrating experience.  But putting in only a fraction of that work, with the risk of loss being far smaller, seems like it would remove some of the obstacles to TO's getting on board with big events.

Lastly, a group of organizers creates the possibility of forging connections between different segments of the community.  I've definitely heard apprehension from some Vintage players about traveling for events hosted by TO's they don't know.  There's no way to be certain if it's worth the investment of time and money for a tournament that might not be up to TMD's usual standards.  But if we had a group of TO's that represented different regions, many different sub-communities would have representation among the organizers of the event, and thus have confidence that it would be worth it to go, if only to support a friend.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2009, 04:47:56 pm by Demonic Attorney » Logged

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« Reply #433 on: November 09, 2009, 07:27:45 pm »

Reducing the risk -- and cost -- to a single organizer certainly makes sense from one side of the ledger, but it raises possibly difficult questions about how to allocate revenues, and other administrative costs at the same time. 

SCG has given away $5K for Legacy tournaments this year, and the turnout has been less than I would have expected in light of Grand Prix Chicago's 1200+ players.

SCG $5K Boston: 183 players
SCG $5K Charlotte: 109 players
SCG $5K Philly: 143 players

As I recall, the Legacy Champs at Gencon had about 170.

And here's the SCG prize payout:
1st: $2,000 & the StarCityGames.com $5,000 Legacy Open Trophy
2nd: $600
3rd-4th: $400
5th-8th: $200
9th-16th: $100

SCG can't break 200 in a format that costs much less than Legacy, at least in theory, despite giving our $5K in prizes.   

Why? 

GP Chicago's prizes:

All prizes in U.S. Dollars.
Place    Prize    Pro Points
1    $3,500    10
2    $2,300    8
3-4    $1,500    6
5-8    $1,000    5
9-12    $600    4
13-16    $500    3
17-32    $400    2
33-64    $200    1
Top 16 finishers also earn invitations to Pro Tour–Honolulu.

So, you get 1228 player if you give out $30,000 in prizes + 16 Pro Tour invites.   

But you get, on average, 145 players if you give away $5,000, without Pro Tour invites...

Interestingly, Grand Prix Philly, the first Legacy Grand Prix, had only about 450 players, but the payout was only $25,000 ($17,500 to non amateurs).    Wizards took a huge loss on that tournament.   It's a good thing they tried again.

The math looks daunting, especially when you consider what it takes to get Grand Prix level attendance. 

IIRC, the largest Waterbury was 202 players, in January.   The last was 113 players. 

My assumption was that a P9 tournament would be viable if 200 players could be guaranteed, but perhaps that's the wrong metric.   Maybe a wider prize payout structure is more desireable.    Maybe someone should experiment with a payout structure that looks closer to this:

1st Place: Black Lotus + Trophy
2nd Place: Ancestral Recall
3rd Place: Mox Sapphire
4th Place: Mox Jet
5th Place: Mishra's Workshop/Imperial Seal
6th Place: Mishra's Workshop/Imperial Seal
7th Place: Mishra's Workshop/ Imperial Seal
8th Place: Mishra's Workshop/Imperial Seal
9th Place: Bazaar of Baghdad/Time Vault
10th Place: Bazaar of Baghdad/Time Vault
11th Place: Bazaar of Baghdad/Time Vault
12th Place: Bazaar of Baghdad/Time Vault
13th Place: Italian Mana Drain
14th place: Italian Mana Drain
15th place: Italian Mana Drain
16th Place: Italian Mana Drain
17th Place: blue Dual land
18th Place: blue Dual land
19th place: blue Dual land
20th place: blue dual land
21th place: non-blue dual land
22th place: non-blue dual land
23th place: non-blue dual land
24th place: non-blue dual land
25th place: Force of will
26th place: force of will
27th place: force of Will
28th place: Force of Will
29th place: Thoughtseize
30th place: Thoughtsieze
31st place: thoughtseize
32nd Place: Thoughtsieze

In other words, I'm wondering if Power Nine is the wrong prize pool.   The very top could be loaded, but it might make sense to have cards that sit just below power, like Shop, bazaar or time vault, as major prizes, and scale them downward further. 

This prize pool is probably under $5000, yet I bet it could attract alot more players than a P9 prize pool of:
1st place: Black Lotus
2nd place: Ancestral Recall
3rd Place: Mox Sapphire
4th Place: Mox Jet
5th Place: Time Walk
6th Place: Mox Ruby
7th Place: Mox Emerald
8th Place: Mox Pearl
9th Place Time Vault or Timetwister

Under my proposal, you might even be able to give away two Black Lotuses, and give the nicer one to first place. 

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« Reply #434 on: November 09, 2009, 09:40:29 pm »

Just fyi, it is infinitely easier to buy low and sell high on Power 9.  Cheap Imperial Seals and Workshops are few and far between.
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« Reply #435 on: November 09, 2009, 10:30:26 pm »

Just fyi, it is infinitely easier to buy low and sell high on Power 9.  Cheap Imperial Seals and Workshops are few and far between.

That's fair.   That just means that the actual cost of a P9 tournament might be lower than it looks.

But consider this payout:

1st Place: Black Lotus + Trophy
2nd Place: Ancestral Recall
3rd Place: Mox Jet
4th Place: Mox Pearl
5th Place: Mishra's Workshop
6th Place: Mishra's Workshop
7th Place: Mishra's Workshop
8th Place: Mishra's Workshop
9th Place: Time Vault
10th Place: Time Vault
11th Place: Time Vault
12th Place: Time Vault
13th Place: Italian Mana Drain
14th place: Italian Mana Drain
15th place: Italian Mana Drain
16th Place: Italian Mana Drain
17th Place: Dual land
18th Place: Dual land
19th place: Dual land
20th place: dual land
21th place: Force of will
22th place: force of will
23th place: force of Will
24th place: Force of Will


I do think, though, that this kind of prize structure would draw ALOT more players (perhaps 15-30% more) than a P9 tournament in the same location at the same time, which should more than pay for the additional $500-$600 outlay for prizes 13-24th.   

I guess, my main question is, we need to find alternative tournament prize structures.   The one we currently have is flawed.   There is no reason an entire P9 has to be given away if a bunch of other nearly as awesome cards are being awarded. 
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« Reply #436 on: November 10, 2009, 11:27:11 am »

Just fyi, it is infinitely easier to buy low and sell high on Power 9.  Cheap Imperial Seals and Workshops are few and far between.

That's fair.   That just means that the actual cost of a P9 tournament might be lower than it looks.

But consider this payout:

1st Place: Black Lotus + Trophy
2nd Place: Ancestral Recall
3rd Place: Mox Jet
4th Place: Mox Pearl
5th Place: Mishra's Workshop
6th Place: Mishra's Workshop
7th Place: Mishra's Workshop
8th Place: Mishra's Workshop
9th Place: Time Vault
10th Place: Time Vault
11th Place: Time Vault
12th Place: Time Vault
13th Place: Italian Mana Drain
14th place: Italian Mana Drain
15th place: Italian Mana Drain
16th Place: Italian Mana Drain
17th Place: Dual land
18th Place: Dual land
19th place: Dual land
20th place: dual land
21th place: Force of will
22th place: force of will
23th place: force of Will
24th place: Force of Will


I do think, though, that this kind of prize structure would draw ALOT more players (perhaps 15-30% more) than a P9 tournament in the same location at the same time, which should more than pay for the additional $500-$600 outlay for prizes 13-24th.   

I guess, my main question is, we need to find alternative tournament prize structures.   The one we currently have is flawed.   There is no reason an entire P9 has to be given away if a bunch of other nearly as awesome cards are being awarded. 

This seems very logical to me. I know alot of players (myself being one of them) that may want to attend tournaments "just for fun" but need a solid reason to actually justify goign to one more than an hour away from where I live (it's hard to justify the expense, especially when you have to justify it to people other than yourself ie significant others, etc...). Prizes for palces other than top 8 are a huge help when it comes to such justification. The prize pool above seems ideal - nicely top-loaded so that winning makes a big difference, but also spread out so that folks like me who aren't good enough (yet) to consistanly top 8 but are good enough to at least approach it most of the time can justify going a longer way.

Do you think there is any possibility of being abel to support a Bazzar of Moxen level prize pool (like the recent one with a full BB playset of duals and a full Foil set fo Fetchs for the winner, and 16 pieces of power as well) in America, or will such treasures be eternally relegated to the European crowd?
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« Reply #437 on: November 10, 2009, 01:12:06 pm »

Do you think there is any possibility of being abel to support a Bazzar of Moxen level prize pool (like the recent one with a full BB playset of duals and a full Foil set fo Fetchs for the winner, and 16 pieces of power as well) in America, or will such treasures be eternally relegated to the European crowd?

You have to walk before you can run.

Also, I am a big fan of the prize structure with wider distribution of prizes rather than the top heavy model.
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« Reply #438 on: November 19, 2009, 05:14:37 pm »

What is the most skill intensive *card* in Vintage?   
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« Reply #439 on: November 19, 2009, 06:06:04 pm »

What is the most skill intensive *card* in Vintage?   

Bazaar of Baghdad
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« Reply #440 on: November 19, 2009, 06:42:09 pm »

Not sure.  I'm going to suggest Sensei's Divining Top as a possibility though.
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« Reply #441 on: November 19, 2009, 07:04:14 pm »

Bazaar of Baghdad seems like a good choice, though Brainstorm, Sensei's Divining Top, Gifts Ungiven, and Fact or Fiction all came to mind because they can often involve very complex choices, sometimes with a significant amount of unknown information out there (such as what your opponent has in his hand or what sort of answers he is likely to have).
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« Reply #442 on: November 19, 2009, 09:03:33 pm »

Demonic Tutor.
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« Reply #443 on: November 20, 2009, 12:56:37 am »

Top requires you to make choices over multiple turns, which is why I'm pointing it out.
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« Reply #444 on: November 20, 2009, 10:00:25 am »

I watched Grand Inquisitor cast Gifts Ungiven at Gencon and it was unreal.

I still think Gifts is the most skill intensive card out there.


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« Reply #445 on: November 20, 2009, 10:20:56 am »

Necropotence.
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« Reply #446 on: November 20, 2009, 11:26:14 am »

I'm also inclined to say Gifts, which I think beats out other choices because it is skill-intensive on both sides of the table.  Not only do you have to know how to play it properly, you also have to know how to play against it properly.  Few cards in Magic have that kind of quality, and Gifts is the most difficult to work with of those.
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« Reply #447 on: November 20, 2009, 11:32:26 am »

Force of Will.

I have lost more games from countering the wrong thing and won more games from my opponent countering the wrong thing than I care to count.
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« Reply #448 on: November 20, 2009, 02:46:39 pm »

I would argue that the most skill intensive commonly played cards in Vintage are as follows (in no particular order that I'd care to discern):
Sensei's Divining Top, Intuition, Gifts Ungiven, Necropotence
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« Reply #449 on: November 21, 2009, 12:04:05 am »

my answer will be obvious on Monday, since my article on Monday is all about the card that i think is the most skill intensive in Vintage, and, unfortunately, it's not Doomsday Smile

Here is an article I wrote in 2007:
http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/15109_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Dear_Santa_Rosewater.html


Dear Santa Rosewater,

2008 is just around the corner, and I thought it would be as good a time as any to draw up my holiday wish list. In increasing order of want, here is my holiday wish list.

10. Unrestrict Mox Diamond in Vintage

Let’s face it: When it comes to making accurate predictions about what to unrestrict, I’m on the money. Over the last four years, I’ve suggested that you unrestrict Berserk, Hurkyl’s Recall, Braingyser, Stroke of Genius, Fork, Mind Over Matter, Voltaic Key, Mind Twist, and Black Vise, among others, and all of those eventual unrestrictions have proved wise in time. I never would have recommended the unrestriction of Gush, but it hasn’t turned out as bad as I thought. It’s not that Gush is worse in practice than I expected. On the contrary, by any reasonable measure, Gush is by far the best performing deck in Vintage. It just turns out that if there is going to be a "best deck," having Gush as that deck is a positive thing for Vintage.

Mox Diamond is a card that I have never advocated for unrestriction, until now.

The truth is that Mox Diamond unrestricted would see no play in Vintage. There are a number of fundamental constraints on the card.

First and foremost, combo decks run twelve or fewer land, sometimes thirteen. The chance of drawing a Mox Diamond at the relevant time and no land are too high. Particularly if you just play land and Brainstorm and you see the Mox Diamond. You have to put back this totally dead card. No Blue-based control deck will likely want to run the card. It is possible that Aggro decks would run Mox Diamond, but they would run Chrome Mox first, and very few do.

Second of all, Mox Diamond is a terrible card to mulligan into. And Vintage decks mulligan a lot. The marginal advantage derived by the frequency of improved hands of seven cards with Mox Diamond would be more than offset by the total loss of a hand of six that has Mox Diamond as a dead card. You can still win games with something else in the Mox Diamond slot with a hand of seven, but the functional hand of five is a deficit too severe to overcome.

Third, the principle behind restriction is that you reduce the number of cards that are overpowering in multiples. Mox Diamond is distinctively a card with steep diminishing marginal utility. Imagine an opening hand with two or more Mox Diamonds. That should make you want to puke. If you were to play 4 Mox Diamonds, that’s something that will happen with regularity.

Fourth, the card has been unbanned in Legacy and it doesn’t see play. That right there is pretty strong evidence that this card is harmless. Chrome Mox is so much better and Chrome Mox just doesn’t see that much play in Vintage.

Fifth, Vintage already has plenty of accelerants like this. Vintage decks don’t need (or even want) more. There are better unrestricted accelerants: Elvish and Simian Spirit Guide, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, and Mishra’s Workshop. Mox Diamond would be an 8th tier option.

So what are the arguments against unrestriction? Unfortunately, they are meager.

Mox Diamond was a card that I opposed for years primarily on the grounds that it seemed so good with Draw7s. I could imagine building a deck with 4 Diminishing Returns and having Mox Diamond help power them out. With each new hand of seven, Mox Diamond is like a mini-Fastbond. The raw card advantage from each draw7 cancels out the card disadvantage of Mox Diamond. This is not a sufficient reason to keep the card on the restricted list. The experience of Flash in the format has made me re-evaluate many of my fundamental assumptions about power level. Flash as a baseline in Vintage tells you almost everything you need to know with respect to restriction. Flash is absolutely busted, and yet absolutely incapable of winning a big Vintage tournament. If Flash can be legal, so can Diminishing Returns.dec.

The most likely home for Mox Diamond is in a slow base-White deck with Land Tax. And that won’t be a deck that will be problematic for Vintage.

9. Print Third "Un" Set. Make "Unleashed."

Unglued and Unhinged have been awesome for Type Four. Have you ever seen a Gorilla Shaman munch on a Gleemax? Have you ever used Timmy, Power Gamer to drop a Nicol Bolas into play? Not unless you play Type Four.

Unglued and Unhinged are incredibly flavorful. They are fun to look at and just fun to play.

The collateral, spillover effects of designing an "Un" set are also beneficial. Many of the cards designed will turn out to be fine for regular play. These cards spice up regular set design by adding a unique, eclectic element. Moreover, these sets allow designers like yourself to really flex your design muscles and see what you’re capable of doing. They hopefully inspire you to try new things and motivate you to think outside of the box. That kind of thinking can transform your understanding of design with positive side effects for regular sets.

The "Un" sets are good for Magic, good for designers, and good for Type Four!

Okay, so you don’t have to print it in 2008, but at least get it ready for a 2009 release. And PLEASE make some good Type Four cards: Spike better be the bomb (and not an auto-ban like Johnny).

8. Unban Shahrazad

I feel like a polemist bringing this up, but banning Shahrazad in Vintage was just plain silly. I completely understand banning it in Legacy, where there are tournaments like the Magic World Championship and Grands Prix on the line, where stall.dec is a serious problem for tournament competitors.

But Vintage is fundamentally different in two critical respects. It’s not that considerations of stalling aren’t valid in Vintage, but there is another fundamental rule that those considerations have to be weighed against: the fact that Vintage stands for the principle that you can play all of your cards. We don’t ban cards in Vintage unless absolutely necessary. The two exceptions agreed upon before now were dexterity and ante. In Legacy, it is much different. We ban cards there for a host of reasons. Banning in Legacy should be a much simpler decision, as the banning of Flash showed. The inconvenience of stall.dec simply does not justify the fact that a banning in Vintage is a de facto banning in total for Magic entirely.

And when you actually think about it: the stall.dec tactic is just silly. In Legacy, it could actually be annoying but relevant, where life totals matter (more so, say, than storm count). But in Vintage, this isn’t a stall tactic. The correct response, most of the time, will be to simply scoop the sub-game before it begins. Taking 10 or fewer life for WW is perfectly fair in Vintage. I need only remind you that 1U can win the game with Flash, at instant speed. If someone refuses to scoop, that’s their problem. The functionality of Shahrazad does not justify a total ban on the card in Vintage. If it truly is problematic (which I find virtually unfathomable), then a restriction would suffice.

I play as much Vintage as anyone, and I’ve never heard of anyone complaining about Shahrazad. Banning a card without the feedback of the people who are most dedicated to the format seems like bad practical policy. There are all sorts of huge possible backlash problems. It just so happens that no one really cared in this case. I don’t either. It might as well be Abu Jafar. But it’s the principle of the thing.

I don’t know what the DCI procedure is for a matter such as this, but they can’t take the complaint of some random tournament organizer so seriously that they decide to totally ban a card. (I wouldn’t at all be surprised if some 20-person tournament T.O. in somewhere like New Zealand is the primary complainant.) The DCI should have provided a more detailed justification for its decision. On the face of it, the banning of Shahrazad in Vintage (not Legacy) cannot be properly justified.

7, 6, 5. Unrestrict Personal Tutor, Grim Monolith, and Dream Halls

I’ve already written about most of these at length in other articles here and here. I have little to add to what those articles said. The only thing that is worth mention is that Personal Tutor’s greatest threat is the ability to reliably get turn 2 Tinker for Darksteel Colossus. Turn 1 Personal Tutor, so long as you have a Mox and two land, can start swinging with an 11/11 indestructible on turn 3. I know that you think that may sound like a huge threat, but it’s not. Every single deck in Vintage can deal with that threat. Just look at the most recent SCG tournament results. Every deck in that Top 8, beginning with the R/G beatz deck, has answers.

4. Continue to Print Many Playables

2007 was, by any standard, a banner year for Vintage. Research and Development did an amazing job designing Magic cards.

Cards that seen major Top 8s in Vintage from 2007 include:

Planar Chaos:
Extirpate
Stingscourger
Simian Spirit Guide
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Future Sight:
Aven Mindcensor
Bridge From Below
Coalition Relic
Dryad Arbor
Magus of the Moon
Narcomoeba
Nix
Pact of Negation
Summoner’s Pact
Street Wraith
Tarmogoyf
Virulent Sliver
Yixlid Jailer

Lorwyn:
Gaddock Teeg
Thorn of Amethyst
Ponder
Thoughtseize

It’s not just that these cards are good or playable in Vintage, it’s that they are very good in Vintage.

3. Eliminate Mana Burn from the Rules of Magic

Sometime last year, there was a compelling rumor floating around the Magic sites I visited that a major rules change was forthcoming. The most interesting and persuasive guess I saw was that they were going to eliminate mana burn from the rules of Magic.

From the moment I heard that guess, it was as if a light went on in my head. It was like growing up in the shadow of the Statue of Liberty and never noticing it until someone pointed it out. It was so profound and so inescapable that I was shocked I’d never thought of the idea before.

Although it never happened, I’d love to see it happen. The reasons for it are numerous:

First, it simplifies the rules. Explaining mana burn to new players is like explaining herpes to teenagers… it’s just grating. The rules of Magic are already ridiculously complex. Teaching people how to play Magic is challenging enough. One less rule that isn’t intuitive is a good thing.

Second, it will save time. Players who don’t want to bluff and don’t want to worry about how they tap every last little bit of mana and can just float the whole of their available mana and then play out from there. I know many players won’t do this, but for those that will, the rule will save time. And in the long run, that will save time for everyone.

Third, mana burn is a stupid way to win a game. In Magic, most cards have trade-offs, either by their presence for the cost for their benefit. For instance, City of Brass trades a point of life at each tap for the advantage of being able to get whatever color you want. Taking damage from City is something you incur because you want the benefit. Taking damage from mana burn – or worse, losing a game from mana burn – is awful. Mana Burn is one of the lamest ways to lose life.

Fourth, it would improve Vintage. The two primary effects, in my view, would be this: First of all, Mana Drain gets better. You won’t have to worry about taking mana burn in your second mainphase or on your next main phase if you don’t use the mana. This won’t actually change the use of Drain that much. Part of the reason to get people to play Mana Drain in their second mainphase isn’t so that they’ll take mana burn but so that they’ll be bottlenecked and have to squander their additional mana. It won’t tactically change the timing so much as just remove a silly cost to the card. The second area in which mana burn comes up is in Workshop decks that play Spheres. When a Workshop deck has turn 1 Sphere of Resistance and turn 2 Sphere, it sometimes takes mana burn there. Workshops will get slightly stronger as a result. Then there are a number of smaller benefits that add up to a lot: Lion’s Eye Diamond becomes even better. If you are tapping all of your permanents down to a Tangle Wire or sacrificing them to a Smokestack on your upkeep, there will be no reason in your upkeep not to just tap the cards for and float the mana into your draw step. It would change Vintage, but only make it better. I’ve won Vintage matches because my opponent mana burned, especially with Mana Drain which they forgot about.

Here are the counter-arguments:

1) It makes Magic less skill intensive. This is a terrible argument. Magic is, and will always be, skill intensive. Taking one additional complexity out of the equation will not change that. Moreover, it’s a skill that’s a whoop-de-do skill. You can count mana. Congratulations. You won’t die to floating too much mana now.

2) Too many cards are designed around it. What would it do to cards like the GG on upkeep card? It may be true that cards were designed with the assumption that mana burn was built into the rules, but that is true of lots of cards preceding rules changes. The entire interrupt mechanic assumed that Counterspells were faster than Lightning Bolts and Disenchants. Now you can Bolt or Disenchant something in response to a counterspell. That changes the strength of Counterspell, but that doesn’t mean that the rules change wasn’t the correct one.

2. Unrestrict Fact or Fiction

I have written a full length article dedicated to this argument. There are no good counter-arguments. The only question is timing. The only reason not to immediately unrestrict Fact (that is, at the nearest B&R list announcement) is to wait until a time when there is a lull in Vintage, and use the unrestriction to shake things up and stir up interest again. I can think of no other reasonable argument against unrestriction. And believe me, I’ve tried.

1. Remove Power Errata From Time Vault

In 1993, some poor sod discovered that Twiddle could be used to untap Time Vault to take additional turns! (According to Santa Rosewater, the problem combo was Living Artifact and Instill Energy.)

Stupified, the nascent DCI (then known simply as the Duelist Convocation) restricted the card in the first banned and restricted list announcement in January of 1994.

Unsatisfied with mere restriction, three months later the DCI slapped the banhammer on Time Vault with a resounding thud that reverberates today.

In 1996, Time Vault was unbanned, but with new errata designed to prevent abuse: In order to take an extra turn, you would have to tap Time Vault and remove a "time counter". You could only add a "time counter" by skipping a turn. The idea was to provide a wording that would prevent the use of cards like Twiddle to take extra turns.

Time Vault was issued erratum again in 1998 and then again in 2004.

Most recently, in 2006, Mark Gottlieb, in an ostensible attempt to correct a decade’s worth of mistakes, errated Time Vault in an effort to return the card to its original templating, and again a few months later, to remove the vestige of power errata.

Gottlieb failed. Today, Time Vault remains power-errated.

I understand why the rules committee settled on the oracle text it did. Removing the power errata from Time Vault was just too scary. But it wouldn’t be remotely as powerful as Flash. If they can remove the power errata from Flash, they can do the right thing and remove the power errata from Time Vault.

Thanks Santa.

Happy Holidays,

Stephen Menendian

****

Interesting to note, 7 of my 10 requests have come true, to the chagrin of some players Wink   A few more came true this year!  Yay!   Only 3 more to go!


What are your wish lists for 2010?
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