[Premium Article] So Many Insane Plays - Best Deck Ever?

[Zherbus]

Sometimes you're tapped out from doing things like Merchant Scroll. Then you really probably want the untap step.

[Troy_Costisick]

Yeah, it's for those rare occasions for when you've Pondered, Scrolled, or Tutored on your own turn and need to untap to win.  It's an uncommon circumstance, but does come up from time to time in a larger tournament.

[GUnit]

Passing the turn grants you an extra untap step.

With the sliver kill if you needed to waste all your turn 1 mana casting merchant scroll or demonic tutor, you wouldn't be able to pact your opponent's turn 1 trini, because you'd die during your upkeep. With the lark kill, however, you can tutor up flash with your turn 1 mana, pact during your opponent's turn, and then in response to the pact trigger, with your freshly untapped lands, you can win the game on turn 2 at instant speed.

EDIT: whoops, didn't see the other two replies ><

[Harlequin]

Also it may not be a matter of untaping, but good timing.  Suppose you know your opponent is playing drain and they have Island, fetch in play with 6 cards in hand.  You have the win and 1 PoN... but have a gut feeling they may have two counters in hand.  Now the brainstorm durring your endstep.  Now responding with the kill is a good option, and will end the game without passing the turn.  Because it's much less likely they have double FoW/MD with only 5 cards in hand.

[Rock Lee]

I don't have a SCG membership so if this is answered in the article I wouldn't know.

One thing I keep reading is that the new instant speed kill that flash has allows for pacts to be used offensively to counter things like duress, spheres, etc., allowing a win on the next upkeep in response to pact triggers.  If I'm a Flash player with a Flash, Hulk/S. Pact, and counter backup.  Why would the correct play to be to pass the turn as opposed to winning immediately?  I'm sure there's a good reason, I just don't get it.

Flash is often tapped out to search or dig. (Something you would know if you tested Flash). The pact of Neg in your hand allows you to win in response to a pact trigger. (another thing you would know if you tested the multitudinous deck variations out there).

::EDIT:: hah, 5 responses since I refreshed stating the same thing. my bad! >_<

[Troy_Costisick]

One option I thought about was including a couple Boseiju, who Shelters All and a Crop Rotation in this deck.  It might slow it down a bit, but not having to worry about counterspells at all is a nice bonus.  What do you guys think?

Peace,

-Troy

[Toad]

You do not worry about counterspells even without Boseijus. The only matchup where I wanted Boseiju was Prison because of Chalice of the Void, and in that matchup Ancient Tomb is better if you want to run lands in the SB, as it enables stronger Merchant Scrolls under Spheres and puts Rebuild online.

[marcb]

I don't have premium, but I would love to hear people's opinion of a transformational SB to Plat. Oath. I think that would definitely make a big difference post sb, when most of the hate could be somewhat avoided.

Marc

[Nehptis]

Here's some insight into Flash SBs:

http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=779

Also, I don't think the sky is falling.  But, this small tourney's results may be an indicator of things to come this Spring.  Flash taking up 3 of the T8 is a bit concerning.  But, if 1 of the Flash decks were GAT instead, then for a 21 person event that would be a nice T8….some Oath, Flash, Storm, Ich, Shop, and the hypothetical GAT.

What is concerning to me is the enabler of Flash, and definitley a strong card in Oath, Storm and GAT and that is MScroll .

[FungiChozo]

What is concerning to me is the enabler of Flash, and definitley a strong card in Oath, Storm and GAT and that is MScroll .

In my opinion, Merchant Scroll shouldn't be restricted or what ever. It's not like Flash is the only deck that can take advantage of this amazing card. Probably something like half the decks in vintage use it. Gush isn't restricted, so I don't see why Merchant Scroll would be. My logic is probably really flawed, but meh.

[Moxlotus]

What is concerning to me is the enabler of Flash, and definitley a strong card in Oath, Storm and GAT and that is MScroll .

In my opinion, Merchant Scroll shouldn't be restricted or what ever. It's not like Flash is the only deck that can take advantage of this amazing card. Probably something like half the decks in vintage use it. Gush isn't restricted, so I don't see why Merchant Scroll would be. My logic is probably really flawed, but meh.

A 2 mana blue tutor that finds card draw, counters, or flash shouldn't be restricted because lots of decks use it?  Last time I checked, a card showing up as a 4-of in all kinds of decks is actually one of the reasons to restrict a card.

[Phoenix888]

Thanks for the replies my question earlier.  That got me thinking that this deck may be more insane then I'd thought so I took the list posted earlier and goldfished it 100 times (boredom does strange things to me).  I did switch out 2 Thoughtseizes for 1 Elvish Spirit Guide and 1 Summoner's Pact.  Here's what I found.

Points of Interest / Side Notes

Turn 1 Kills    24
Turn 2 Kills    34
Turn 3 Kills    23
Turn 4 Kills    6
Turn 5+ Kills  13

Average kill turn:  2.126436782

Turn 5+ kills were counted as a loss and not included in the average kill turn.

Chance of turn one kill:  24%

Chance of turn 1-2 kill with backup (single or double): 35%

Chance of turn 1-2 kill with double backup:  7%

Chance of double protected turn one kill:  2%

These were all "Game 1 on the play".  No sideboard or drawing a card on the first turn.

In only one game was there a choice of getting flash with Demonic Tutor or Merchant Scroll.  I used DT.

I'd consider myself average in terms of skill level.  I'm neither a pro nor a scrub.  As Flash isn't exactly the toughest of decks to pilot.  I'd say these results are fairly accurate.

Turn 1 Kills

Cast Merchant Scroll in 4/24 games.
3 Times were for counter backup.  1 was for Flash.

15/24 were unprotected. 

7/24 had 1 counter backup.

2/24 had 2 counter backups.

Turn 2 Kills

Cast Merchant Scroll in 11/34 games.

10 were for Flash.  1 for counter backup.  1 for brainstorm. 
(1 game 2 were cast for Flash and counter backup.)

8/34 were unprotected.

21/34 had 1 counter backup.

5/34 had 2 counter backups.

Turn 3 Kills

Cast Merchant Scroll in 14/23 games.

13 were for Flash.  2 for counter backup.
(1 game 2 were cast for Flash and counter backup.)

3/23 were unprotected.

13/23 had 1 counter backup.

6/23 had 2 counter backups.

1/23 had 3 counter backups.

Turn 4 Kills

Cast Merchant Scroll in 4/6 games.

2 were for Flash.  2 were for counter backup.  1 for Brainstorm.
(1 game 2 were cast for Flash and counter backup.)

2/6 were unprotected (aka a loss)

1/6 had 1 counter backup.

3/6 had 2 counter backups.

Turn 5+ Kills

3/13 did have triple counter backup and that was without Merchant Scroll.

6/13 I mulliganed to oblivion.

[playkenny]

[Mods: this reply is sorta directed towards Shockwave's article, but i couldn't reply on that thread, nor could I PM him, and this seemed like the best spot to post so please move if necessary. thanks and sorry in advance]

Shockwave, I read your article and can fully understand your frustration, as well as the frustration of others. Your main arguments against Flash seem to be that its unfun, uninterative, overly powerful via free spells and consistantly degenerate. Your opinion is to ban Flash, but leave scroll. Leaving scroll, i can agree, since it does more damage to other top decks than flash as you have outlined previously.

Just a hypothetical - Pretend:

Summoners Pact cannot search for Hulk
That playing the card “Flash” required you to play further spells to win and needed similar skills to that of storm combo.
Flash can still kill at instant speed, but again, further spells are required.
Flash can still kill at sorcery speed, and it required less work than at instant speed
When Hulk dies, you can respond to the trigger by removing hulk from the grave which, in a magical land, counters the search ability.
Still no attack step required for the kill
Flash still maintained (if desired) the use of 4 scrolls and 4 pacts.

Now, do you think that if a flash deck with these constraints would still be a powerhouse? Or be manageable? Or Fair?

If people said yes, has it occurred to anyone that perhaps restricting/banning hulk is the correct move? During affinity’s dominance over standard, DCI restricted Disciple, and overzealously, vial and the artifact lands. Looking at the current extended, affinity lives on even with the loss of Disciple and Vial. If DCI bans Hulk, it effectively means that Flash becomes Rector Flash, which is restrained by the above constraints (replace rector with hulk in the above hypothetical, and use brainfreeze/tendrils for the instant/sorcery skills).

What if hulk is restricted? The deck becomes:
4 flash
1 hulk
4 summoners pact
x Worldly Tutor?

Weaker? I would say so, but by how much? That is up for further discussion, but you would say that turn 1 kill % would decrease, and most players would get to turn 2.

Many other anti flash arguments stem from flash being a brainless deck which chimps can pilot, and have brainless turn 1 wins at a consistent basis. People then state that it’s not much different to long decks, but that argument is shot down when comparing the skill required to generate lethal storm counts vs finding and resolving flash, not to mention consistency issues. Banning/Restricting hulk means that the skill element with rector/storm comes into play thus nullifying that “chimps can play” argument. Furthermore, instant kills are much harder to assemble (via brainfreeze) and there is more interaction (well as much interaction as playing against long/gifts). It reduces the brokness of the free spells, and it keeps a strong combo deck in the format whist not reducing the power of the next big decks (GAT and Oath) by axing scroll. The same hate cards - and more, can be applied to rector flash, 1 hulk flash, which still overlaps with Ichorid.

Banning Flash means that your combo element of the format is maintained by mainstream TTS/Long, Empty Gush etc. Why not keep flash as a combo? Flash has other uses, but it just so happens that hulk broke it. Perhaps people can create a wacky "Dump Truck" style deck, with cards like welder and titan – flash in titan? Then weld? Possibly open doors for a reanimate style deck with flash/tinker, titan/angel of despaire, reaminate? I know it sounds janky, but so did stifle+nought initially.

I sent an email regarding this to Steve M. and to pick at his thoughts so hopefully he can have some input. People like Steve and Shockwave have more influence over the little people (like me) for the format, so I wouldn't like them to leave "stones unturned" so to speak.

Thoughts on this? Have you/anyone ever considered this option?

[Phoenix888]

I did the same goldfish test an additional 100 times.  The averages were figured the same as above.  A turn 5+ kill was counted as a loss and weren't included in the averages.  It's all in a spreadsheet if anyone has any specific calculations they'd like, otherwise, this will probably be the last from me as it's starting to add to the boredom as opposed to alleviating it.

Second 100
Turn 1 Kills:   14
Turn 2 Kills:   48
Turn 3 Kills:   20
Turn 4 Kills:   6
Turn 5+ Kills:   12
Average Turn Kill:   2.204545455
Average Counter Backup:   1.034090909
Mode Turn Kill:   2
Mode Counter Backup:   1
   
   
All 200
Turn 1 Kills:   38
Turn 2 Kills:   82
Turn 3 Kills:   43
Turn 4 Kills:   12
Turn 5+ Kills:   25
Average Turn Kill:   2.165714286
Average Counter Backup:   0.96
Mode Turn Kill:   2
Mode Counter Backup:   1
   
Turn 1 kill chance:   19.00%
Turn 1 w/ 0 backup:   12.00%
Turn 1 w/ 1 backup:   5.50%
Turn 1 w/ 2 backup:   1.50%

Chance of the turn 1 kill having no protection:  63.16%
   
Turn 1-2 kill chance:   60.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 0 backup:   20.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 1 backup:   30.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 2 backup:   10.00%

My Conclusion:  Flash is a turn two deck that will have 1 counter to protect itself.

[Troy_Costisick]

Heya,

Turn 1-2 kill chance:   60.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 0 backup:   20.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 1 backup:   30.00%
Turn 1-2 w/ 2 backup:   10.00%

Have you tried throwing in 4 Gemstone Caverns and seeing how easy it is to pull off Turn 0 kills?  If you have a chance, I'd like to see some data on that.

Peace,

-Troy

[AmbivalentDuck]

Almost impossible: flash requires 2 mana.  You'd need two gemstones caverns in your opening hand along with Hulk/Pact, Flash, and two dead cards to feed the caverns.

[Phoenix888]

Have you tried throwing in 4 Gemstone Caverns and seeing how easy it is to pull off Turn 0 kills?  If you have a chance, I'd like to see some data on that.

To be able to pull that off any bit consistently (and I don't think the odds would be good) I think you'd need to start with:

4 Gemstone Mines
4 Elvish Spirit Guides
4 Simian Spirit Guides
4 Street Wraith
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Flash
4 Hulk
5 cards for the kill.

You'd have two mulligans before it couldn't happen anymore.  After that you'd pretty much be dead in the water.  Also, I'd imagine the odds of having a protected turn 0 kill are very, very low.  If the opponent has a 40% of having a Force of Will in their opening hand, then the chances of pulling it off would go from very bad to much worse.

[playkenny]

@ AmbivalentDuck: Depends on your Flash build. You can go Cavern, the Pact--> Spirit guide, flash/Hulk.

@ Shockwave from: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=35528.0 [Mods, once again, i dont have authority to post there, if you have any advice on posting somewhere else etc, please let me know! ]

Merchant Scroll:
I think it was you who stated previously that restricting scroll means:
- 3 Scroll
+ Imperial Seal
+ 2 Lim Dul's Vault/Ponder/Sensei's Divining Top/<insert semi-viable Flash digger here>

Flash looses minimal speed but GAT/Oath/new gushman/bomberman looses their entire combo element which is one reason it can compete at times, not to mention their draw (scroll into gush/recall). How can they compete now? So scroll has to stay - it hurts the other decks more, thus making Flash more powerful. If your saying restrict Flash AND Scroll, then thats a different issue, but if you pretend that Flash is a non-existant deck, scroll is fine in the meta.

Rector Flash vs Hulk Flash
Turn 1 Hulk/Flash = GG all the time.
Turn 1 Rector/Flash = fizzable no?

Rector is just fairer, even with more "oops i win %" than other decks, but without summoners pact, its harder to get rector in hand. Furthermore, you cannot just win under spheres by resolving 1 spell, you need to storm. I used to play rector/flash over hulk/flash becasue i found it better in a sence cos it dodges some hate, and can randomly rit, rit, dt, yawg etc and naturally combo out. But honestly, you cannot consistantly go flash/rector win, like you can with hulk. I remember reading a few reports of a player who played MD form of the Dragon in rector flash, perhapse he can post his thoughts?

But before going there "Was flash a problem before revelark?" I dont think so. Sliver/Karmic guide kills (and sultered goul/Diciple to lesser extent) wern't so bad, and there really wasn't much of an outcry before morning tide. So if you wanted to, you could ban Revelark.

The fact you cannot reliably go:
Turn 1 Scroll for Flash, Pact your duress
Turn 2 win on upkeep

This line of play is the biggest concern.

"Can't imagine the DCI restricting Protean Hulk [or Revelark]"
Hulk is a weak card, but its the card that causes breaks the deck, not flash. Revelark brings the instant kill, not Flash. Restricting/banning either will make things a whole lot different, either bringing flash back down to "managable" levels or back to rector/storm combo. Hulk (and to some extent, revelark) is just like Diciple of the Vault - its a weak card, but its the card that broke affinity, not ravager, so i really think these options should be taken into consideration.

I'm very honored to have my posts actually taken seriously by big and extablished players so thanks a bunch.

[Anusien]

Have you tried throwing in 4 Gemstone Caverns and seeing how easy it is to pull off Turn 0 kills?  If you have a chance, I'd like to see some data on that.

I've already done some analysis on that (pre-Street Wraith): http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14145.html
The spreadsheet is here: http://www.people.virginia.edu/~kmb8c/Flash.xls

[Necrologia]

Great article, and I'm looking forward to the next piece. Personally I'd never cut the ESG, as it's been so good to me in testing. Otherwise everything seems spot on with what I've noticed when playing the deck.

[portland]

Although running 4*ESG, plus SSG and caverns gives much better potential for turn 0 kill and all the bragging rights and magic tales that arise as a result, I feel that you're much better running a more consistent build looking at turn 1 or 2 kill much of the time. It will be interesting to see what Steve has in mind for the 'bord. Oath transform seems a little obvious, I wonder what he has up his sleeve...

Wrt the pearl/petal debate, I'm personally tending toward petal. I'm still sorely tempted to run the deck in Piacenza, despite a lot of people being likely to audible the deck with Steve bigging it up so much. Just hope there isn't a deez backlash which would of course let another deck run away with things.

[SpaceGhost]

I know there has been a lot of talk about the nastiness of the first turn kill and the frequency at which it arises, but I don't think it is quite as common as people are perceiving or testing.  In fact, we can just work it out mathematically (I refer you to the hypergeometric distribution if you are curious).  In any event, I am basing this off Steve's decklist for consistency. 

Now, the minimum for a turn one kill before your opponent does anything is having 2 mana to cast Flash.  That sets us up with several alternatives:

(1) Lotus, (2) Flash, (3) Hulk, (4 - 7) whatever.  Naturally, we will assume there are 4 Flashes, and 6 Hulks (we will count the 2 Summoner's pact since it can just grab it for free).  Some variation of this will happen 1.84% of the time.

Now, we can also get a kill off a draw with one land and one mox, with the same chances at Flash and Hulk.  This variation will happen 4.98% of the time.

Finally, we could get the kill from a random mox + mox sapphire/lotus petal .... that will happen .28% of the time.

This puts us at 7.20% of the time 1st turn kill when playing -- which may or may not be too much for Vintage.  Of course, this could be boosted a little through aggressive mulligans or adding ESG/SSG, but nothing too much.

Compare this to an unrestricted Trinisphere with Mishra's Workshop.  The same analysis shows that had a 16.18% chance of a first turn Trinisphere.

Additionally, is is a little information for Leyline of the Void if you are determined beyond all reason to open the game with one against Flash.

Probability you get one in opening 7:  33.63%
Probability if you mulligan to 6:           53.89%
Probability if you mulligan to 5:           66.29%
Probability if you mulligan to 4:           73.96%
Probability if you mulligan to 3:           81.25%
Probability if you mulligan to 2:           83.62%
Probability if you mulligan to 1:           84.71%

*All of these probabilities are computed directly from formulae, so it isn't depending on specific samples, computers, or playtesting.



(I don't play Flash often, so if I am missing a potential first turn kill from this decklist, just let me know).

[MournfuL]

Additionally, is is a little information for Leyline of the Void if you are determined beyond all reason to open the game with one against Flash.

Probability you get one in opening 7:  33.63%
Probability if you mulligan to 6:           53.89%
Probability if you mulligan to 5:           66.29%
Probability if you mulligan to 4:           73.96%
Probability if you mulligan to 3:           81.25%
Probability if you mulligan to 2:           83.62%
Probability if you mulligan to 1:           84.71%


This statistics doesn't seem really logic, you have more chances to draw a leylline mulligan into 1 card? wtf? this can't be real.

[wiley]

I'm not really sure how you are going about getting your statistics, however they seem off.  If I remember correctly the last time someone figured the probablity of getting a 4 of in your oponening hand (without the inclusion of serum powder) it was roughly 40-60%.  Also, as Stephen mentioned in his article, the number of playable hands with leyline in them are signifigantly less, but you did set up your math to ignore this.

In my experience early discard is the only consistant way to control flash, as you will rarely win counter wars if both decks switch to control mode.  This is also backed up by Stephens Flash vs. GAT examples.

Overall an excellent article, very well written and shows a calm, well organized critical thinking process.  Especially in consideration as to whether or not Flash is the best deck of all time.

[kkoie]

Additionally, is is a little information for Leyline of the Void if you are determined beyond all reason to open the game with one against Flash.

Probability you get one in opening 7:  33.63%
Probability if you mulligan to 6:           53.89%
Probability if you mulligan to 5:           66.29%
Probability if you mulligan to 4:           73.96%
Probability if you mulligan to 3:           81.25%
Probability if you mulligan to 2:           83.62%
Probability if you mulligan to 1:           84.71%


This statistics doesn't seem really logic, you have more chances to draw a leylline mulligan into 1 card? wtf? this can't be real.

I believe that the list represents a progressive increasing probability of drawing a leyline.  Thus the 84.71% represents the overall probability of drawing a leyline once you've mulliganed that far, not nessessarily for drawing that 1 card alone.  You'll notice that the increased probability between mulligan to 2 to mulligan to 1 is significantly less than the increase between the opening 7 and mulligan to 6.  Thats because at mulligan to 6 you've looked at 13 cards, where as when you get to mulligan to 1 you've looked at 7+6+5+4+3+2+1 (granted that there is also a probability that some of those 28 cards you mulligan away will be the exact same card).

[dicemanx]

I know there has been a lot of talk about the nastiness of the first turn kill and the frequency at which it arises, but I don't think it is quite as common as people are perceiving or testing.  In fact, we can just work it out mathematically (I refer you to the hypergeometric distribution if you are curious).  In any event, I am basing this off Steve's decklist for consistency.

Steve's decklist isn't automatically the best configuration, nor is it automatically the most representative configuration. Your calculations conveniently don't include 3 Summoner's Pact and 1 ESG, which helps out with the mana quite a bit. They also don't include configurations that max out on artifact mana (with Petal, Pearl, and Crypt). Lastly, they don't include cases where the game is effectively over turn 1 without actually killing by virtue of the fact that the Flash deck has a disruption spell that stops any turn one action while a Scroll, or DT (or Mystical/Vamp if the disruption is FoW) fetches the missing combo piece. Lastly, it is possible to also AR/Brainstorm/Ponder into the actual 1st turn kill or effective 1st turn kill. Note that the Flash turn 1 kill rate isn't the only consideration - so is the massive turn 2 rate along with the fact that the deck can protect itself with tons of disruption.

Compare this to an unrestricted Trinisphere with Mishra's Workshop.  The same analysis shows that had a 16.18% chance of a first turn Trinisphere.

Again, this is deceptive. There's a huge difference being on the draw rather than on the play. Furthermore, Shop-Trinisphere isn't game over at all - every deck with the exception of Belcher had at least one possible plan against it in common - playing lands. The final turn 1 kill probability would likely end up being somewhere between 4-8%.

[SpaceGhost]

Additionally, is is a little information for Leyline of the Void if you are determined beyond all reason to open the game with one against Flash.

Probability you get one in opening 7:  33.63%
Probability if you mulligan to 6:           53.89%
Probability if you mulligan to 5:           66.29%
Probability if you mulligan to 4:           73.96%
Probability if you mulligan to 3:           81.25%
Probability if you mulligan to 2:           83.62%
Probability if you mulligan to 1:           84.71%


This statistics doesn't seem really logic, you have more chances to draw a leylline mulligan into 1 card? wtf? this can't be real.

I believe that the list represents a progressive increasing probability of drawing a leyline.  Thus the 84.71% represents the overall probability of drawing a leyline once you've mulliganed that far, not nessessarily for drawing that 1 card alone.  You'll notice that the increased probability between mulligan to 2 to mulligan to 1 is significantly less than the increase between the opening 7 and mulligan to 6.  Thats because at mulligan to 6 you've looked at 13 cards, where as when you get to mulligan to 1 you've looked at 7+6+5+4+3+2+1 (granted that there is also a probability that some of those 28 cards you mulligan away will be the exact same card).

This interpretation is correct.  Sorry if that was a little unclear.  Also, it is the probability of seeing exactly one in your hand as I thought it would be unlikely to desire to keep a hand with more than one.

I'm not really sure how you are going about getting your statistics, however they seem off.  If I remember correctly the last time someone figured the probablity of getting a 4 of in your oponening hand (without the inclusion of serum powder) it was roughly 40-60%.  Also, as Stephen mentioned in his article, the number of playable hands with leyline in them are signifigantly less, but you did set up your math to ignore this.

In my experience early discard is the only consistant way to control flash, as you will rarely win counter wars if both decks switch to control mode.  This is also backed up by Stephens Flash vs. GAT examples.

Overall an excellent article, very well written and shows a calm, well organized critical thinking process.  Especially in consideration as to whether or not Flash is the best deck of all time.

If you consider instances of seeing multiple copies, then the probability of seeing 1 in your opening hand is 33.63%, of seeing 2 is 5.93% of seeing 3 is .38% and of seeing 4 is .007% -- which is 39.95% overall.  I considered the possibilities of seeing only one for Leyline of the Void; however, for the 1st turn Flash kill I considered multiple copies of everything.

You have to set up the math to ignore playable hands because that would be impossible to determine and so subjective depending on the skill (or lack thereof) of the player.

[SpaceGhost]

I know there has been a lot of talk about the nastiness of the first turn kill and the frequency at which it arises, but I don't think it is quite as common as people are perceiving or testing.  In fact, we can just work it out mathematically (I refer you to the hypergeometric distribution if you are curious).  In any event, I am basing this off Steve's decklist for consistency.

Steve's decklist isn't automatically the best configuration, nor is it automatically the most representative configuration. Your calculations conveniently don't include 3 Summoner's Pact and 1 ESG, which helps out with the mana quite a bit. They also don't include configurations that max out on artifact mana (with Petal, Pearl, and Crypt). Lastly, they don't include cases where the game is effectively over turn 1 without actually killing by virtue of the fact that the Flash deck has a disruption spell that stops any turn one action while a Scroll, or DT (or Mystical/Vamp if the disruption is FoW) fetches the missing combo piece. Lastly, it is possible to also AR/Brainstorm/Ponder into the actual 1st turn kill or effective 1st turn kill. Note that the Flash turn 1 kill rate isn't the only consideration - so is the massive turn 2 rate along with the fact that the deck can protect itself with tons of disruption.

Personally, I think that Flash (the deck, perhaps not the card) is too powerful.  I understand that it is not the list that optimizes the best configuration; however, it was an objective list to consider and I would be glad to consider another list as well.  I would be glad to consider different lines of play as well that are not as obvious.  The calculations are not that difficult.  As a point of clarification, I assure you that nothing was "convenient" to skew the results in any way shape or form, just trying to use an objective list from a notable person.  If I would have made up my own that optimized some mana considerations, I am sure that would have drawn some complaints as well.

I am fairly certain that a turn 2 probability of a kill is quite high and very disconcerting.  I just think that it would help make more clear arguments if some of them were grounded in fact and backed up by clear numbers instead of anectdotal evidence. 

Compare this to an unrestricted Trinisphere with Mishra's Workshop.  The same analysis shows that had a 16.18% chance of a first turn Trinisphere.

Again, this is deceptive. There's a huge difference being on the draw rather than on the play. Furthermore, Shop-Trinisphere isn't game over at all - every deck with the exception of Belcher had at least one possible plan against it in common - playing lands. The final turn 1 kill probability would likely end up being somewhere between 4-8%.

This is not meant to be deceptive.  I am just pointing out the probability of the "combo" (which I use loosely since, as you stated, you can just play lands to get out of it) that people often are comparing it to.  Note, I didn't say first turn kill.  I try to be exact in my wording so some sense of reference from prior experience can be gleaned and an overall approach to the argument can be formulated. 

I really think that something needs to be done about the ridiculousness that is Flash; however, I think that the arguments against it need to be supported with more than anectdotal evidence.  Otherwise, the arguments will be dismissed out of hand as (1) some people just don't like to play against Flash because it ruins their pet deck -- I find this argument ridiculous in the extreme, (2) Vintage is broken, so get on board (another ridiculous argument), (3) only the vocal people are letting their opinions be known--most of vintage is fine with Flash (this may or may not be true), etc.  If this can be backed up with objective evidence, then the argument becomes all the stronger.

As I said, please outline some common lines of play that you would consider part of the Flash powerhouse -- I am very curious to see how likely they are. 

[GUnit]

For the record, the more relevant statistics on mulling into leyline aren't the values that predict getting exactly 1 in your opening hand, but rather the probabilities of getting at least one in your opening hand, as has been suggested above. The chances to find at least one leyline by aggressively mulliganning are summarized below.

7 cards      0.400
mull to 6   0.611
mull to 5   0.728
mull to 4   0.795
mull to 3   0.834
mull to 2   0.855
mull to 1   0.865



As far as my opinion on the flash matter, I'm not sure if flash should be restricted- maybe it should be- but I'm almost certain that merchant scroll is a problem. I thought merchant scroll was the problem when gifts was restricted, I thought merchant scroll was the reason GAT dominated, and now I think that merchant scroll is responsible for the degeneracy of flash and the raw power of tyrant oath (the best deck in the format?). Merchant scroll has been the centerpiece of every dominant deck since Steve showed everyone how broken it was when he based the engine of meandeck gifts around it.

Merchant Scroll is a demonic tutor that's not allowed to get black lotus or yawgmoth's will (unless you want to wait a turn, spend a blue mana, and reduce your hand size by 1). That's still pretty effin' good.

[SpaceGhost]

For the record, the more relevant statistics on mulling into leyline aren't the values that predict getting exactly 1 in your opening hand, but rather the probabilities of getting at least one in your opening hand, as has been suggested above. The chances to find at least one leyline by aggressively mulliganning are summarized below.

7 cards      0.400
mull to 6   0.611
mull to 5   0.728
mull to 4   0.795
mull to 3   0.834
mull to 2   0.855
mull to 1   0.865



As far as my opinion on the flash matter, I'm not sure if flash should be restricted- maybe it should be- but I'm almost certain that merchant scroll is a problem. I thought merchant scroll was the problem when gifts was restricted, I thought merchant scroll was the reason GAT dominated, and now I think that merchant scroll is responsible for the degeneracy of flash and the raw power of tyrant oath (the best deck in the format?). Merchant scroll has been the centerpiece of every dominant deck since Steve showed everyone how broken it was when he based the engine of meandeck gifts around it.

Merchant Scroll is a demonic tutor that's not allowed to get black lotus or yawgmoth's will (unless you want to wait a turn, spend a blue mana, and reduce your hand size by 1). That's still pretty effin' good.

A couple of things...agreed on the statistics.  Thanks for updating this, I was commuting this morning and couldn't put in the desired table.  I definitely didn't mean to get people into an uproar.  Although, I don't know how far some one would realistically mulligan or if they would keep a hand of 5 with three leylines, so there is always a little fudge.  People could use the first table I posted and this table to get bounds on the probabilities to get some idea of what they may/may not be willing to do.

Agreed on Merchant Scroll.  This card is way overpowered.  It effectively sets up turn 2 kill for Flash almost everygame.  With a 40% chance you see it in your opening hand, you can happily just go along and grab a counter or Flash itself.  This card is the engine that recent decks of note have been built around.  Whether it is too powerful or not, I think it should be restricted based on the basis that you put a card directly into your hand for 2 mana.