Article] Deconstructing Constructed - On Flash and Winning

[Vegeta2711]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/15734.html

It's kind of about Flash and then I sort of temper off into a tangent on deck selection and reasoning, although I guess I didn't make it generalized enough in some areas, shrugs. In a way this is just a rewrite and further explanation of what I told Rich (shockwave) a while ago, but Chapin helped make it easier to express.

p.s. not a b/r thread, I'll gladly delete all your posts about the subject or lock the thread.

[Zieby]

First: this was a very nice reading for me.

I agree with you for the full 100%.

The reason that I and mi friends won't play Flash is indeed because it is not fun to play with or against it. I also believe that most people in The Netherlands aren't playing Flash because of this exact reason. I think all the players understand the brutal power of Flash, but they also see that the deck is easy to play.

I believe that a Vintage player wants to be recon iced for his skill and not for the Numbers of Top 8 he's bin in.

This all however doesn't take away that the DCI needs to watch the format and the cards in it and evaluate it from time to time. Some cards don't need to be Format wrapping to be un-fun to play against or with. I believe that the Format and especially the Vintage format to be a skill rewarding format.

You all may have your own thoughts, but in the end the skill full and intense matches are the one that we remember the most.

Just My 2 Cents

Arjan Bos
From The Netherlands

[Grand Inquisitor]

Great read, Josh.  I'm surprised there's not more feedback, but perhaps people are all Flashed out from the intense discussion in the Adept Chronicles forum.

My reactions to what I see as your central points:

1) We simply don't have a good enough sample to have a convincing discussion on Flash.

I agree, but that's never stopped us before


2) Flash is the sickest combo deck relative to its place/time since Trix.

While the verdict is still out, I don't believe the recent addition of Reveillark, and making available (again) an instant kill, significantly changes Flash's station in the metagame pecking order (taking away from the claim that it's overly broken relative to what else is available in T1).  You talk about Dredge making an immediate impact on extended and players needing to respond as such.  In T1, GAT mostly eclipsed the splash of Flash in the beginning; it has been Oath's evolution into a powerhouse that has allowed Flash room to operate again.  The overall metagame dynamic over the last year has looked (simplistically) like this: Flash<GAT<Stax<Oath<Flash.  I also don't think Flash is underrepresented for reasons specific to T1 (details later)...


3) The vintage player pool is different from other constructed in that it's less competitive and less likely to play linear decks in order to place highly in tournaments when the situation resembles Chapin's post.

I think this is exactly true, but this is only part of the story of how the T1 format responds to broken decks.


4) Chapin's post: OMG! EV is dependent on metagame.  More subtly, the idea that linear decks create a dynamic that switches skill intensities from 'in-game' skill to 'deck choice (aka metagaming) skill.

This begs the question whether this dynamic is inherently different in T1 relative to other formats.  I say yes for two reasons.  First, T1 has (on average) always existed as a combo format reliant on decks making or stopping game breaking plays in the early turns.  Second, this combines with the vast card pool (not a small factor) to create an environment that is already predisposed against combo and that adapts quickly and effectively to these types of metagame threats.  My favorite example of the first is when MeanDeck unleashed SX on Waterbury in early 2005.  It was by and large, a flop.  ***I don't intend this as an affront on MeanDeck at all***  What I'm saying here is that these were some of the most skillful players in the format playing a deck that was powerful, innovative, and a total metagame surprise.  How did they fail?  SX did not break through the fundamental T1 characteristic, which is not speed (we've had that for sometime), but stopping power.  This is why combo rarely produces long periods of success in T1, and decks like GAT, Hulk, Slaver, Gifts, GAT, and Oath do.  They all have combo avenues as well as much more diverse lines of play which allow them to outplay early stoppers.  The second part of this is that there are so many options for hate in T1, that even these (usually blue) decks are able to equip themselves against early game pressure while still maintaining flexibility against hate themselves.  The effect on the example from your article is that the (1) hate decks are already in the format even before the adaptation (2) 'Normal' decks are flexible enough to become hate decks when they have to and resilient enough to beat hate decks themselves.

There is an instance where the paradigm does shift; while I don't believe the case can be made for Flash, this is certainly the case for Ichorid.  Ichorid circumvents the basic options of 'normal' decks (mostly by bypassing FoW and the stack as a whole).  The epiphany came for me when my untalented friend who hadn't played T1 in months picked up a proxied Ichorid deck against my tuned Gifts list and mauled me.  While Flash and its ilk will always pressure the 'normal' and 'hate' decks of T1, something like Ichorid actually eliminates the interaction these decks offer.

Does this mean I think Bazaar/Serum/Narcomoeba need attention?  Not at all.  What I'm saying is that at one level, the avenue of attack offered by Trix/Academy/Rector/Long/Flash has been largely answered in T1 (note this does not mean I'm settled on no DCI action, just that I don't think Flash displaces skill in the way the article purports).  Ichorid opens up a new avenue, and this may be a good thing.

2c

[nineisnoone]

There is an instance where the paradigm does shift; while I don't believe the case can be made for Flash, this is certainly the case for Ichorid.  Ichorid circumvents the basic options of 'normal' decks (mostly by bypassing FoW and the stack as a whole).  The epiphany came for me when my untalented friend who hadn't played T1 in months picked up a proxied Ichorid deck against my tuned Gifts list and mauled me.  While Flash and its ilk will always pressure the 'normal' and 'hate' decks of T1, something like Ichorid actually eliminates the interaction these decks offer.

Does this mean I think Bazaar/Serum/Narcomoeba need attention?  Not at all.  What I'm saying is that at one level, the avenue of attack offered by Trix/Academy/Rector/Long/Flash has been largely answered in T1 (note this does not mean I'm settled on no DCI action, just that I don't think Flash displaces skill in the way the article purports).  Ichorid opens up a new avenue, and this may be a good thing.

I think this is a great point.  Ichorid is kind of the "combo" deck to Vintage... in the sense that combo = aggro in Vintage.  The impact that a strong combo deck has on a traditional environment is that decks are forced to approach the game in a different way rather than a conventional way.  However, to bring the point back to Flash, Flash is more like Goblins in a tribal field. It's not really "different" than other decks it's just better as you would fight them on the same level unlike Ichorid and combo decks in traditional environments.

Of course that does not answer whether Flash should be banned (or otherwise dealt with). Generically though since 1) it follows "conventional" rules and can be attack in conventional ways and 2) it hasn't empirically been shown to be a problem, I would say the "safe" bet would just to be let it play out. 

[Vegeta2711]

First, thanks everybody (yes even all of you lovable IRC scants). I got some good feedback from this.

To answer GI:

While the verdict is still out, I don't believe the recent addition of Reveillark, and making available (again) an instant kill, significantly changes Flash's station in the metagame pecking order

:shrug: fair nuff.

My favorite example of the first is when MeanDeck unleashed SX on Waterbury in early 2005.  It was by and large, a flop.  ***I don't intend this as an affront on MeanDeck at all***  What I'm saying here is that these were some of the most skillful players in the format playing a deck that was powerful, innovative, and a total metagame surprise.  How did they fail?  SX did not break through the fundamental T1 characteristic, which is not speed (we've had that for sometime), but stopping power.

See to me, this is crap. The reason SX failed was because it was a terrible fucking deck. It's impossible to compare the two because Flash has actual lines of play that involve more factors than your opening hand and the ability to actually beat a single hate card starting in G1. Similarly combo did poorly for a long period of time because the majority of good players would invest time into playing non-combo decks, also one could make the argument that control decks allowed for more mistakes to be made in general than the storm combo decks during these timelines.

Ichorid is another example of a uninteractive pile, but I can understand why the DCI continues to let it exist just like it does in Extended. The logic is simply that any deck can run the same 6-8 hate cards and basically wreck it's win % in games 2 & 3. The reason I think Flash is a bigger threat is because that doesn't hold true for it unlike itchy.

Anyway, disagree a bit on the response, but was interesting to see a different viewpoint.

[Tha Gunslinga]

The reason SX failed was because it was a terrible fucking deck.

So that would be why Flash can't win tournaments too, amirite?

Verbal warning for violation of Rule 4, Lack of Content.  -DA

[Shock Wave]

The reason SX failed was because it was a terrible fucking deck.

So that would be why Flash can't win tournaments too, amirite?

It has won tournaments, and has made many T8s, so don't even try to compare its achievements to those of Meandeck SX.

[Vegeta2711]

The reason SX failed was because it was a terrible fucking deck.

So that would be why Flash can't win tournaments too, amirite?

It has won tournaments, and has made many T8s, so don't even try to compare its achievements to those of Meandeck SX.

Rich summed it up, so I'll go ahead and throw on a QFT and suggest you go back to posting one-liners somewhere else.

This obviously wasn't going to help the direction of this thread.  Please just report the post in the future.  -DA

[Tha Gunslinga]

It has won tournaments, and has made many T8s, so don't even try to compare its achievements to those of Meandeck SX.

Not lately it hasn't.  For a brief period, perhaps, but if you go to Morphling.de and look at the latest Vintage top 8s, out of the TEN top 8s on the front page you will see ONE Flash deck make the finals.  Out of 20 top 2 decks, one lonely Flash list.  At 2nd.  How unlucky.  Oh, and look what beat it.  DEEZ NOUGHTS.

Still a decent amount of Flash in top 8s, no doubt, but it damn well CANNOT win, and if the same number of people who played Flash played Meandeck Tendrils I'm sure that would be doing better.  One finals slot out of 20 is pitiful and denotes a terrible or very underplayed deck, and since Flash is seeing lots of top 8 slots it's safe to say that Flash is terrible.  Please, go ahead and rip me apart, but I have evidence, so please try to find some of your own first.

[Shock Wave]

Not lately it hasn't.  For a brief period, perhaps, but if you go to Morphling.de and look at the latest Vintage top 8s, out of the TEN top 8s on the front page you will see ONE Flash deck make the finals.  Out of 20 top 2 decks, one lonely Flash list.  At 2nd.  How unlucky.  Oh, and look what beat it.  DEEZ NOUGHTS.

Morphling.de does not dictate whether Flash is capable of winning or not. Flash has won or split the last 3 Vintage events in Ontario. It has made the Top 8 and the Top 4 in several recent US events. I'm not sure what your point is about "Deez Noughts", but feel free to keep felating your Flash-killing brainchild. It really pertains to the discussion.

Still a decent amount of Flash in top 8s, no doubt, but it damn well CANNOT win

Why not? Because you said so, or perhaps because you said so in upper case letters? Flash has won large events before, and has won events of significance recently, so you're not going to get anywhere peddling statements like these.

... if the same number of people who played Flash played Meandeck Tendrils I'm sure that would be doing better.

Wow. Just ... wow. You get a lot of points for entertainment value. I'll give you that much.

One finals slot out of 20 is pitiful and denotes a terrible or very underplayed deck, since Flash is seeing lots of top 8 slots it's safe to say that Flash is terrible.

So let me clarify: If a deck consistently makes Top 8, then it is still terrible unless it wins?

Please, go ahead and rip me apart, but I have evidence, so please try to find some of your own first.

I have provided evidence which discredits your assertions. I hope it helps you understand that your argument is operating from a position that is, at best, very weak. Your evidence is not very compelling, and the conclusions you've drawn from it are incorrect.

Verbal warning for violation of Rule 2, Inflammatory Posting.  -DA

[hauntedechos]

I'm sure I am out of line here, and that I bring no statistical evidence to the table.  I've been reading and watching flash in tournaments and one thing that I have seen is this:  TSOath seems to beat it and the second is this, the hatred of this deck seems in line with manaless ichorid, which has fallen somewhat to the way side.  After that fact, through two subsequent articles, Mr.Menendian illustrates that the matchup is not as horrid as it may seem painted to be.

Before I get a lynch mob trying to flame me for the above, let me state, that a deck that operates in a non-interactive manner as Ichorid does, yet can win at instant speed on turn one or two with retarded back up, is something that I loath.  I do affirm that a deck of this nature DOES confirm a certain mindset against Vintage as a format.  I belive that there are more reasonings to hinder this deck than just "it's no fun".  For one it shatters the efforts to remove the stigma towards Vintage, for two it does turn some vintage players from continuing to play in the format which thusly stifles possible players from entering, this in turn reduces Vintage organizers (few as it is) from putting up attractive prize support...ok I could go on, suffice to say that I dislike the deck and feel that something should be done about it.

In the end I think there are two avenues to approach this deck.  The first is do nothing and hope that statistics are enough to give rise to actions against it....err, this will take forever.  The second is to develope the deck to THE most degenerate deck it can possibly become, this will lead to so many people playing it, or against it that the format will be soo warped that something would HAVE do be done about it...this would take much less time.


haunted.

P.S.  egos and self absorbed "flaming with intelligence" will not help or change anything....grow up

[diopter]

I have provided evidence which discredits your assertions. I hope it helps you understand that your argument is operating from a position that is, at best, very weak. Your evidence is not very compelling, and the conclusions you've drawn from it are incorrect.

I have read your article and posted my thoughts on SCG and in your thread in the Adept forum. It is your argument that is very weak and lacks support from concrete and statistically significant evidence.

For reference:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=35528.0

Reply 24

[Shock Wave]

I have provided evidence which discredits your assertions. I hope it helps you understand that your argument is operating from a position that is, at best, very weak. Your evidence is not very compelling, and the conclusions you've drawn from it are incorrect.

I have read your article and posted my thoughts on SCG and in your thread in the Adept forum. It is your argument that is very weak and lacks support from concrete and statistically significant evidence.

For reference:
http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=35528.0

Reply 24

I don't see how this relates at all to any of the discussion in this thread, since they are two completely separate issues. I suspect you felt a pressing need to remind me that you disagree with my argument, but in the event you have not noticed, I have no intention of replying to your concerns. Your reply has been thoroughly addressed by Dicemanx, and reiterating his position is a small segment of my life I'd rather not waste. Thank you for your application though, it will be forwarded to human resources.

[hauntedechos]

This Flash "thing" is getting to the point that I feel that I will just not bother logging in.  There is this "I will not be out done" ego and pride driven need to become the victor aspect that is very distastefull and WAY off the mark.  Slighting each other with "intelligence" does NOT disguise it and those partaking really do appear to be less than their age.

If flash was having the issue of non participation in Vintage tournaments, then let me be the first to say that it is having the non participation effect on me and this web site.

Haunted.

ps, I repeat, grow up.

Again, the preferred response is to report posts, not to assume moderation duties for yourself. -DA

[Demonic Attorney]

Thread closed, warnings to the appropriate posters to follow.