Recent rise in Magic Single Prices

[vartemis]

I am curious what other peoples' opinions on the recent increase in what appears to be the buyer's threshold for single prices in Type 2 are.  The odd set used to contain one or two $20 cards, but lately the sets have been putting out quite a bit more and their prices are substantially higher.  Here are the current type 2 singles over $15 at SCG:

Bitterblossom - $35
Chameleon Colossus - $15
Cryptic Command - $16
Damnation - $25
Extirpate - $15
Garruk Wildspeaker - $20
Mutavault - $35
Tarmogoyf - $50
Thoughtseize - $20

It also looks like there is an increase in $10-15 cards as well, but I still think those are manageable within a players budget.  What made me decide to post this was the sudden jump in the price of Grindstones due to the popularity of the Painter decks.  Back when Flash blew up, I expected it to jump, which it did obviously, and it ended up around the $10 mark.  I am curious why the value of Grindstones is now around the $25-30 mark when a month ago a couldn't give them away.  Do you think they will drop back down in line and it's just a fad coming through, or do you think the sudden increase in type 2 singles threshold is going to spill into the Eternal formats?

j

[ELD]

Magic is an international game.  The declining US Dollar makes it very favorable for people in other countries to purchase our cards when priced out in our dying Federal Reserve Notes.  If you price out Singles in real money, like Gold, as opposed to the worthless paper money our government has sabotaged us with, you'll see that the price for singles hasn't increased at all.  (Gold was 341 5 years ago as opposed to 930 today)  Expect this trend to continue as people around the globe continue to get fed up with the constantly declining US Dollar. 

Aside from that, you're looking at what sets the price of any good or service in a free market - the point where supply meets demand.  Flash was reprinted in 6th Edition, so there are many more of them than Grindstone. 

[vartemis]

Excellent reply.

How do you explain that many of the singles are staying on par with what they normally are and that the range of prices is increasing?  The prices are starting to look like what VS looked like before it bottomed out; a bunch of "must have cards" in the $15-40 range that are required to purchase to be competitive.

Is it just that the higher priced cards are more attractive to foreign markets, and they buy the average priced cards at home because there isn't that much difference in price?

j

[Webster]

Card prices are controlled by several factors; the dominant being: availability and demand.

The reason grindstone shot up to 20-25 so quickly is because there was already a moderate market demand due to casual circles as well as a tremendous demand. This example is a brutal oversimplification of the situation, but it creates enough of a picture.

Prices are determined initially on market speculation; what that means is that the major secondary market distributors gauge the impact of a card in various constructed formats, factor in whether it's common, uncommon, or rare, and then use those qualities to set a BUY-IT-NOW price on internet-based retail and auction sites. This process takes place in the preceding weeks of a set's release up until a few weeks post-release. After that time frame has passed, other factors begin to weigh more heavily on prices, namely tournament results. Tournament results also play a major role in determining card prices. Grindstone is the most recent example.

It's a fact that good cards are going to have a high demand, and thus, the market will bear what consumers are willing to pay. Faeries is one of the best and most popular decks in standard right now. That fact creates a huge demand for thoughtseize, ancestral vision, bitterblossom, scion of oona, mistbind clique, cryptic command, and secluded glen. What helps further facilitate demand are the weekly tournaments that local card shops hold.

If a card is really good in tournament play, it is going to cost a lot of money; example: tarmogoyf, wasteland.
If a card is really popular in casual circles, it is going to cost a lot of money; example: gaea's cradle, sliver queen.
If a card is really rare, it is going to cost a lot of money; example: imperial recruiter, mishra's workshop, black lotus.

[Apollyon]

Most local card stores have lots of the borderline rares/crap rares. Not too many people go to SCG for the non-money rares.

What you are looking at is SCG's inflated prices. Here's what eBay says cards are worth:

Bitterblossom 16
Chameleon Colossus 10
Cryptic Command 10
Damnation 15
Extirpate 9
Garruk Wildspeaker 15
Mutavault 21
Tarmogoyf 37
Thoughtseize 14

The fewest data points is Extirpate at over 150 auctions.

[Matt]

How do you explain that many of the singles are staying on par with what they normally are and that the range of prices is increasing?

The reason you notice the price jump on top-level rares is because it's only worthwhile to ship American cards to, say, Europe if they're the high-demand rares. Europeans* don't need to buy uncommons or commons opened in USA mainly because they open enough of their own to meet demand (there's generally always more than enough supply of these, but never enough supply of the good constructed rares).

You don't have to price cards out in gold or some such to see all this, either. It works fine with fiat money as long as it isn't declining (which is, after all, what a "declining dollar" is measured to be declining against), such as the Euro. The actual supply of hard currency printed has little if any effect on prices, because currency only represents a fraction of the total money supply.



*which I'll use for an example but it's not just Europe, obviously.

[Roxas]

Those cards also all go in different decks. Past $20 cards like Ravager tended only to go in one; Bitterblossom and Cryptic Command go in different places than Garruk and Chameleon Colossus.

[Webster]

Those cards also all go in different decks. Past $20 cards like Ravager tended only to go in one; Bitterblossom and Cryptic Command go in different places than Garruk and Chameleon Colossus.

I'm not quite sure of the point that you're trying to make here.

[Implacable]

Those cards also all go in different decks. Past $20 cards like Ravager tended only to go in one; Bitterblossom and Cryptic Command go in different places than Garruk and Chameleon Colossus.

I'm not quite sure of the point that you're trying to make here.

At a glance, he's saying: Ravager, Bitterblossom, and Cryptic Command are all extraordinary cards for their formats.  However, the latter two are played in a variety of decks, which increases demand.

[TopSecret]

Would MTGO be a factor as well?
Has it's popularity been on the rise?

If so, that might make pro-player types buy less real packs,
creating a huge demand on the Internet for the best standard cards.

Also, hasn't the Internet become a more used resource for buying cards over the past few years?

That could make the general demand on the Internet higher.

I'm just speculating on factors that haven't been mentioned yet.
I'd appreciate someone telling me I'm wrong.

[SAC_1977]

I play in Europe and I've been working international magic values for years. I think the reason why in Europe we buy so many cards from the US is to do with WOTC pricing structure. At current prices a Shadowmoor booster box in the US is about $80 where as in Europe we are paying $120 (in Italy I paid $7 a booster last week). Because US sellers are not allowed to sell booster box's outside the US (a wizards policy) , we can only buy US singles. the high booster box price is passed on to the singles market and the prices are higher ( it has always been like this)

Basically what I'm getting at is that Foreigner's aren't affecting your price increases any more than before because we have always bought cards from the the US.

[Zherbus]

Would MTGO be a factor as well?
Has it's popularity been on the rise?

No! MTGO is doing very poorly right now. The Version 3 stuff is really having a detrimental effect on things there. In fact, it's speculated that Morningtide/Shadowmoor will be the next Invasion Block because of so few card singles entering the system. Basically, with v3 coming live with half-assed functionality, I'm surprised if v3 is making any positive money at all.

It'll be a fine product once it actually works, but I think it's effect on the Single Prices of real cards is likely at an all time low right now.

One thing I will add is that the prices don't always jive between MTGO and MTG. For example, Thoughtseize sells for about 4x IRL than on MTGO. There's no availability issue either, but far less of an eternal community to drive the prices up.

Also, it's uncommon for people to just play MTGO without playing IRL. Most people tend to borrow most of their stuff to playtest on MTGO, then have to acquire/borrow cards IRL once they've settled.