[Article] Vintage Fallout and a New Beginning

[Zherbus]

Yet another take on the newest development.

Vintage Fallout and a New Beginning by Steve O'Connell

Brainstorm, a staple in Vintage since shortly after fetch lands saw print, was restricted. Brainstorm, the card that was amazing and mostly harmless was put in the same category as Yawgmoth's Will, Black Lotus, and Ancestral Recall. Then again, to be fair, it joins Dream Halls as well.

I'd love to hear peoples thoughts on the direction of the new format so far. I've been doing some heavy testing and there's so much uncertainty, but things still seem to hold bright for the future.

[Razvan]

I think you like Stephen have hit one thing right on the head: after a few hours, the shock has worn off, and there's a silver lining of this not being as catastrophic as originally thought.

It's not a change that a lot of people will like, but it's here, it's done, moving on, could be interesting.

And there's absolutely nothing wrong with Mana Drain coming back .

[bluemage55]

I agree with most of your conclusions.

However, I find it interesting that although you believe Grim Long, Ichorid, and Painted Trinket to be on the rise (which will lead to a faster environment), you nevertheless believe Mana Drains (which are better in a slower environement) are due for a comeback as well.  This is something I've debated with quite a few people here, and I'm interested to hear your views on the matter.

Essentially, I'd like to know why the rise of Ichorid, Grim Long, and Painted Trinket will slow down the format rather than speed it up.

[wiley]

I'm taking a stab at this but I would assume that the thought process behind it is that it will take longer for those decks to sculpt their hand properly.  You never try to go off with a combo deck when you believe that the opponent is holding answers you can't deal with.  Barainstorm used to set up your hand perfectly so that you had your compact kill and the ability to back it up with a high degree of consistancy (same with merchant scroll).  Now it becomes something more than a crapshoot on whether you or your opponent gets to their "optimal hand" first, thus narrowing the safety margin and slowing the format.  Proactive decks like ichorid come out on the top in a situation like this, but given the proper tools even mana drain based combo decks have a fighting chance to combat that beast.

Overall I thought it was an excellent article that provided a good example of the proper thought process needed to continue forward with vintage.  I salute you for being another pillar of reason on these boards and hope you can make it to Raleigh on the 16th.

[Zherbus]

More or less, I feel:

Ichorid - No change in speed.
Grim Long - Half takes Flash's spot, half takes Gush-Storm's spot, so we get another turn or so there, with a splash of loss in resiliency.
Painted Trinket - It existed before, but it's slower than what was considered to be the proper build by many (see Brassman's Gush deck).
Tyrant Oath is gone, to be replaced by what is shaping up to be much a slower kill.

I definitely don't think it gets faster, from a fundamental turn stand point. The loss of Flash, Oath no longer bringing out a virtual 20/20 haster on turn 2, and early blowouts from Fastbond really allow for keeping hands that lend itself to building up a game state.

It's based off only two and a half days of testing. Lists and gauntlets are so in flux that I could be eating my words in a week though.

EDIT: Yes Wiley, I will be there with a friend.

You bring up another point. How much more deadly is Ichorid? I've played against Ichorid at least once in every tournament I've played in, barring one disaster at ELD's. Sometimes, I get fortunate enough to get paired twice. I feel that if one takes the archetype seriously, they should do well against it. It's served me well as I've never lost a match (games, yes) to the beast.

That said, I feel that as long as Ichorid doesn't find an additional edge given the new metagame state, it'll remain a constant. However, if they do get an edge - we'll all be crying for Bazaars head before too long.

[bluemage55]

Ichorid - No change in speed.
Grim Long - Half takes Flash's spot, half takes Gush-Storm's spot, so we get another turn or so there, with a splash of loss in resiliency.
Painted Trinket - It existed before, but it's slower than what was considered to be the proper build by many (see Brassman's Gush deck).
Tyrant Oath is gone, to be replaced by what is shaping up to be much a slower kill.

I definitely don't think it gets faster, from a fundamental turn stand point. The loss of Flash, Oath no longer bringing out a virtual 20/20 haster on turn 2, and early blowouts from Fastbond really allow for keeping hands that lend itself to building up a game state.

That assumes that we see similar numbers for those decks as before.  But if more people play Ichorid or Grim Long now because the other archetypes have weakened, wouldn't that still result in a faster format?

As an aside, do you think Belcher will make a showing?

[bluemage55]

I'm taking a stab at this but I would assume that the thought process behind it is that it will take longer for those decks to sculpt their hand properly.  You never try to go off with a combo deck when you believe that the opponent is holding answers you can't deal with.  Barainstorm used to set up your hand perfectly so that you had your compact kill and the ability to back it up with a high degree of consistancy (same with merchant scroll).  Now it becomes something more than a crapshoot on whether you or your opponent gets to their "optimal hand" first, thus narrowing the safety margin and slowing the format.

Don't certain decks (Grim Long, Belcher) dispense with hand sculpting and simply throw disruption and bombs as fast as possible though?

And with less consistency for everyone, doesn't that mean that a deck is better off throwing threats as fast as possible since it's less likely the opponent will have an answer?

[TopSecret]

Thanks for the interesting article!

I especially liked this part:

Forsythe: Let's just bug out and call it even, OK? What are we talking about this for?
Turian: I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
Forsythe: Fuckin' A.
Buehler: Ho-ho-hold on, hold on one second. This format has a substantial dollar value attached to it.
Turian: They can *bill* me.

lol

I didn't see a mention of Bomberman, though.
Did you forget it, or do you think that it's not good enough for consideration?

[BreathWeapon]

Good article,

People are seriously overrating Ichorid, whose main advantages come from its game 1 dominance and people's unpreparedness to face it post board. With so much hype, you can expect SBs and even MDs to be designed to deal with Bazaar of Baghdad.dec, so people falling back on Ichorid are going to be in for a huge world of hurt.

I think Bazaar of Baghdad is going to dominate, there's just so many different things you can do with it.

[orgcandman]

Steve,
  Nice article.

  The only thing I disagree with is drain being viable. The decks that drain has to contend with at the moment are aggro, 9-sphere, and ichorid (which I classify as combo more than aggro since it's absolutely an engine that ends with a single turn of win). All of those decks are historically problematic for a deck which aims to wait until turn 2 or 3 to get off a drain into a bomb. Workshop is probably the more favorable, but especially without tools like brainstorm to dig for answers, it's probably going to be a much tougher battle.

  Not that I'd mind. I haven't played vintage in forever, so I could be wrong. But essentially, I think that while the new brainstorm-less metagame might be slower/faster/more interesting, I believe that the top tables will still likely be sans mana drain.

-Aaron

[Yare]

Nice article overall. I generally agree with the points you made. The introduction involving you waiting for the announcement is priceless. One deck that I think has flown under the radar a bit is Fish, which I think has a chance for a comeback here, depending upon where the metagame goes. If Ichorid is prolific (it probably will be), then it will be tough for Fish. If not, however, and the metagame shifts back to combo and stax, Fish has a chance. Other than that, I like the analysis. Thanks.

[Zherbus]

As an aside, do you think Belcher will make a showing?

People said 'oh yay, the worst fast deck ever just got really good.' The deck seriously won't put up the numbers.

But if more people play Ichorid or Grim Long now because the other archetypes have weakened, wouldn't that still result in a faster format?

Grim Long, surprisingly, is a really fair deck. I'm not kidding. I don't think it adds too much to the speed of the format and am personally fine with it being a benchmark. As for Ichorid, there are a few devotees, a few people who play it because of limited options, and then there are the rest of us.

For the 'rest of us', you have to ask 'Why not play Ichorid'? The answer might be 'Maybe I shall!' right now, but in two weeks it'll be 'it's a pain in the balls to fight through so much hate, albeit very possible'.

I didn't see a mention of Bomberman, though.
Did you forget it, or do you think that it's not good enough for consideration?

Why would anyone use Auriok Salvagers when Painter's Servant is in print?

The only thing I disagree with is drain being viable. The decks that drain has to contend with at the moment are aggro, 9-sphere, and ichorid (which I classify as combo more than aggro since it's absolutely an engine that ends with a single turn of win). All of those decks are historically problematic for a deck which aims to wait until turn 2 or 3 to get off a drain into a bomb. Workshop is probably the more favorable, but especially without tools like brainstorm to dig for answers, it's probably going to be a much tougher battle.

Mark my words, then! If I'm wrong over the next 3 months, I owe you a beer when I'm in NH next.

One deck that I think has flown under the radar a bit is Fish, which I think has a chance for a comeback here, depending upon where the metagame goes.

Yeah, I wanted to go into all the Fish options and Keeper potential, but without a metagame to realistically grab on to, I'd not venture to even begin to work on lists.

I do think Jotun Grunt might be a good card.

As is Kataki.

Just sayin'

[Shock Wave]

As an aside, do you think Belcher will make a showing?

People said 'oh yay, the worst fast deck ever just got really good.' The deck seriously won't put up the numbers.

It's about time somebody said it. Belcher is a pretty awful deck, especially considering that Null Rod is likely to return in full force.

[wiley]

For the 'rest of us', you have to ask 'Why not play Ichorid'? The answer might be 'Maybe I shall!' right now, but in two weeks it'll be 'it's a pain in the balls to fight through so much hate, albeit very possible'.

Speaking as one of those 'devotees' I think you nailed the sentiment perfectly here.  I doubt Ichorid will ever become as popular as its power deserves since it just isn't fun for most people to play.

As for fish though, since there will most likely be a rise in shop aggro like mud, 5/3, 7/10 split and even (loosely categorized here) cerebral assassin, how exactly would fish survive?  It has been pushed out of the format every time big robots roamed the fields, is there a reason this time will be different?

[Son of Serra]

I would really like to think that Mana Drain is viable in Vintage again, especially since the DCI unrestricted Mind Twist. This is the first time since 1994 that both spells can be played as a four-of in a non-causal deck. Just an idea, but what about:

x1  Black Lotus
x1  Lotus Petal
x1  Mox Emerald
x1  Mox Jet
x1  Mox Pearl
x1  Mox Ruby
x1  Mox Sapphire
x1  Sol Ring

x1  Ancestral Recall
x1  Brainstorm
x2  Cabal Ritual
x4  Dark Ritual
x1  Echoing Truth
x4  Force of Will
x4  Mana Drain
x1  Mystical Tutor
x1  Rebuild
x1  Vampiric Tutor

x1  Demonic Tutor
x4  Duress
x1  Empty the Wardens
x1  Merchant Scroll
x4  Mind Twist
x1  Tendrils of Agony
x1  Time Walk
x1  Timetwister
x1  Yawgmoth's Will

x1  Necropotence
x1  Yawgmoth's Bargain

x2  Flooded Strand
x2  Island
x1  Library of Alexandria
x4  Polluted Delta
x1  Swamp
x1  Tolarian Academy
x3  Underground Sea
x1  Volcanic Island

I would play this a lot differently than I played Flash, using tempo gains to win in the long run when possible. Thoughts?

[Yare]

For the 'rest of us', you have to ask 'Why not play Ichorid'? The answer might be 'Maybe I shall!' right now, but in two weeks it'll be 'it's a pain in the balls to fight through so much hate, albeit very possible'.

Speaking as one of those 'devotees' I think you nailed the sentiment perfectly here.  I doubt Ichorid will ever become as popular as its power deserves since it just isn't fun for most people to play.

As for fish though, since there will most likely be a rise in shop aggro like mud, 5/3, 7/10 split and even (loosely categorized here) cerebral assassin, how exactly would fish survive?  It has been pushed out of the format every time big robots roamed the fields, is there a reason this time will be different?

I personally find Fish competitive with Stax builds, although I know that this isn't necessarily the conventional wisdom. Fish has a LOT of ways to deal with artifacts and artifact creatures. That being said, Thorn of Amethyst will be bad for Fish because Fish likes to play a lot of spells. As Steve mentioned, Kataki is out there, along with Energy Flux, Swords, Disenchant, Hurkyl's, Rebuild, Seal of Cleansing, etc.

[policehq]

As an aside, do you think Belcher will make a showing?

People said 'oh yay, the worst fast deck ever just got really good.' The deck seriously won't put up the numbers.

It's about time somebody said it. Belcher is a pretty awful deck, especially considering that Null Rod is likely to return in full force.

i have not played in a while, my interest in vintage only just renewed, but i think that since the last time any belcher besides lochinvar's has been competitive (back when jdizzle and kelp played it, that is) many cards have been printed that are in belcher's favor against null rod: shattering spree, ingot chewer, ancient grudge, etc. etc. in addition, simian spirit guide and pyroblast, guttural response, et al allow for belcher to protect the artifact destruction. in the same way that ichorid can have an explosive turn off the back of bouncing a leyline of the void, belcher can win the game off one successful activation; one taiga is the most that is required for the land-base.

this is not to say that the deck will be competitive; its inconsistencies are much harsher than ichorid's, but the days of casting living wish for viridian shaman are long past.

[MuzzonoAmi]

First off, the article was great, Steve. You captured my reaction almost exactly.

That being said, I've done a bit of testing, and have come to a few conclusions, albeit on a limited amount of data.


1. Impulse is fantastic.

Impulse is extraordinarily potent in a deck that can take advantage of it. Highly redundant decks such as MonoU or UrPhid can use it as an instant speed Merchant Scroll, while 3-4cc can use it to dig for silver bullets

2. Parfait is too slow, but Enchantress (a la Cooberp) has potential.
Not too surprising.

The 7 slots tax/rack takes up leave very little room for the diverse array of threats to the deck, and the fact that Parfait has a very hard time supporting acceleration in the form of off-color Moxen. That being said, a well built Enchantress is strong against Ichorid (easily supporting Leylines, and even Unmasks to ditch them if the builder so chooses), can hold its own against WSA and Painter.dec with maindeck cards like Swords to Plowshares, Humility, and Seal of Cleansing, and sideboard options such as Elephant Grass and Serenity. In addition, the archetype is historically strong against Monoblue and and multicolor control decks because of its easy access to cards like Choke and City of Solitude. That being said, Stax is still an uphill battle.

3. WSA is at the top of the aggro heap.

The combination of Pyrostatic Pillar, 9 Spheres, Blood Moons, Crucible/Wasteland/Strip, and incredible speed when it comes to laying threats means that, especially on the play, WSA might be the best deck in the format until a Long build decks crystallizes. Out of the board, access to Duplicant, Triskelion, Magus of the Moon, Flametongue Kavu, Viashino Heretic, and even more graveyard hate render Stax, Ichorid, and other aggro irrelevant.

[Zherbus]

As for fish though, since there will most likely be a rise in shop aggro like mud, 5/3, 7/10 split and even (loosely categorized here) cerebral assassin, how exactly would fish survive?  It has been pushed out of the format every time big robots roamed the fields, is there a reason this time will be different?

Robots aren't very scary if they can afford to run Plow. That's a big if right now, though.

I would play this a lot differently than I played Flash, using tempo gains to win in the long run when possible. Thoughts?

I'd be inclined to use the Tempo swing to just decimate the opponent, rather than their hand. I like Mind Twist as an option for utility, but in Tendrils you probably want to go for more back-breaking things. Perhaps the Intuition-AK engine? More swingy bombs and win conditions (Tinker-Colossus, more Tendrils, Memory Jar, etc). There seems to be a ton of options right now since little has taken real shape.

3. WSA is at the top of the aggro heap.

The combination of Pyrostatic Pillar, 9 Spheres, Blood Moons, Crucible/Wasteland/Strip, and incredible speed when it comes to laying threats means that, especially on the play, WSA might be the best deck in the format until a Long build decks crystallizes. Out of the board, access to Duplicant, Triskelion, Magus of the Moon, Flametongue Kavu, Viashino Heretic, and even more graveyard hate render Stax, Ichorid, and other aggro irrelevant.

I agree it is pretty much a full tier above R/G or Goblins. Stax might get tricky (like Jerry Yang's Painters Mud) and become a full-on trump. I think Ichorid will always give Workshop Aggro fits though.

[Son of Serra]

I would play this a lot differently than I played Flash, using tempo gains to win in the long run when possible. Thoughts?

I'd be inclined to use the Tempo swing to just decimate the opponent, rather than their hand. I like Mind Twist as an option for utility, but in Tendrils you probably want to go for more back-breaking things. Perhaps the Intuition-AK engine? More swingy bombs and win conditions (Tinker-Colossus, more Tendrils, Memory Jar, etc). There seems to be a ton of options right now since little has taken real shape.

After goldfishing it a bit, I tend to believe you are right. To pull off a proper Mind Twist, I usually had to go into topdeck mode myself. Looks like I'm back to Draw 7's...

[Zherbus]

Right. Another thing to consider is that Force of Will might be harder to include, so perhaps loading up on more Duress effects is the answer. While I personally won't be on the Tendrils train, there are plenty of those with talent that will be. I'm interested to see where the dust settles.

[zeus-online]

I especially liked this part:

Forsythe: Let's just bug out and call it even, OK? What are we talking about this for?
Turian: I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
Forsythe: Fuckin' A.
Buehler: Ho-ho-hold on, hold on one second. This format has a substantial dollar value attached to it.
Turian: They can *bill* me.

I loved that part...damn i just gotta watch aliens tonight...anyways!
Nice article, i sure hope that drain is comming back! I don't really care if i have to beat people with psychatogs, weld stupid things into play or whatever...aslong as i get to play with drains again 
I'd prefer keeper/3cc/4cc.

Unfortunetly you can't build keeper without a metagame, so that will have to wait.

/Zeus

[fury]

Nice forecast article. It's a bit early to see the impacts of the restrictions on the metagame. I'm not sure Control is dead as some people seem to think. Control Slaver still seems to be a good deck, even without Brainstorm. And maybe Aggro-control with heavy hate will find its place.

[Thegreatgonzo]

In my humble opinion, this « new » vintage means several things.
First of all, as already stated, mana base will make a jump in the past, as ponder and brainstorm are no longer there to dig for a second land.

As a consequence, I also think grim long will make his come back, since decks won’t be as card efficient as they used to be. So Mox-Mox-Ritual- bomb stategy might be viable again. Sure, brainstorm is a big loss, but a couple of Bazaar of Baghdad can (almost) serve the same purpose.

On the other hand, I don’t think it will help mana drain’s comeback. Loosing Merchant scroll means you can’t beat stax on a regular basis with a single mass artifact bounce anymore, and also means you can’t fetch a counter with enough consistency to beat good old combo.
Nevertheless, people will have to switch to older, mana hungry draw engine (Intuition AK, TFK...), because scroll-for-ancestral and gush combo time are no longer available, so I might be wrong here

About bomberman : most of the incarnations of this deck should do ok, since beyond brainstorm, divining top is the next best thing. Trinket mage can fetch it, along with a wide array of answers- and bombs- (lotus, dreadnought), and could be the new merchant scroll.

Ichorid, aggro and stax are the big winners here : they loose nothing. But since stax (and aggro) are metagame decks, they will have to adapt eventually. (null rod anyone?  ). Ichorid’s power remains untouched, but until wizard begins to restrict graveyard hate, it will have the same problem as ever.

Dragon could also find his place in this new meta. It doesn’t suffer much from the new restrictions, and well, it’s still a real pleasure to play this deck. Ichorid-induced graveyard hate might be a problem, but between bounce, reverant silence, oxydize and such, it could be a serious contender again.

Thanks for reading, and sorry for my so-so english

[Khahan]

I wasn't really sure where to post this question but it deals directly with the new meta post 6/1. And the question may border on blasphemy but here goes:


As of 1-of do you even play Brainstorm?   We all know everything that it did (and it still does those things).  What brainstorm boiled down to was consistency.  The problem is that its now a 1-of and 1-ofs are not consistent.  When you get a fetch or two in your opening hand, do you now hold on cracking them waiting for a brainstorm?  Nope. You may hold them for other reasons and stumble into bs/fetch. But with a 1-of you don' wait for it.

Do you replace it with 4 spell cards and rely on the same mana base knowing you get less look/shuffles?  Probably not.

It would seem that with the loss of consistency, that BS loses a lot of its power. Is there enough loss of power that going for consistency from other cards trumps what BS brings to the table as a 1-of?   

Personally, out of the 3 slots (assuming you do keep 1BS) I intend to add 1 underground sea which helps support my mana base better and 2 duress.    If I don't keep a singleton BS, I would add 3 Duress.  Basically trading card draw for control. I would then be running 2/3 duress, 4 FoW, 4 Mana Drain, 2 MisD. 

[bluemage55]

As of 1-of do you even play Brainstorm?   We all know everything that it did (and it still does those things).  What brainstorm boiled down to was consistency.  The problem is that its now a 1-of and 1-ofs are not consistent.  When you get a fetch or two in your opening hand, do you now hold on cracking them waiting for a brainstorm?  Nope. You may hold them for other reasons and stumble into bs/fetch. But with a 1-of you don' wait for it.

I would say you do still play Brainstorm, and you pair it with Ponder even if you didn't run Ponder before.  I would also think that you should crack all but one of your fetchlands, and save that one for Brainstorm, Ponder, and/or possibly Sensei's Divining Top. 

Personally, out of the 3 slots (assuming you do keep 1BS) I intend to add 1 underground sea which helps support my mana base better and 2 duress.    If I don't keep a singleton BS, I would add 3 Duress.  Basically trading card draw for control. I would then be running 2/3 duress, 4 FoW, 4 Mana Drain, 2 MisD. 

I'd recommend dropping at least 1, and probably both, MisDs.  With restricted Scroll its usefulness just took a big dip.

[nineisnoone]

I would say you do still play Brainstorm, and you pair it with Ponder even if you didn't run Ponder before.  I would also think that you should crack all but one of your fetchlands, and save that one for Brainstorm, Ponder, and/or possibly Sensei's Divining Top.

But you're thinking along the lines of transitioning an unrestricted Brainstorm-enabled deck into the new restricted Brainstorm world.  Sure we can just replace the missing Brainstorms with various 1 mana cantrips, but I think his point was that it's not the same because Brainstorm is an engine rather than a bomb. And as a bomb it's of questionable strength.  It's sort of like when Fact or Fiction got restricted.  It was strong as a 4-of, but as a 1-of doesn't see all that much play.

[Zherbus]

Brainstorm should definitely still be play in any deck that runs blue. It's worth playing on it's own.

FoF was format influencing as a 4-of. But after it was a restricted, every deck with blue started with 4 FoW, 4 Drain, 1 Ancestral, 1 Walk, 1 FoF.

Keeper did it. Ophidian did it. Tog did it.

But FoF costs four, and was too much for Gush decks. Brainstorm, at a 1 mana instant, is never bad.

[nineisnoone]

I would argue FoF is better.  But as far as BS goes it's never bad, but I don't think it's so good that it's an auto-include for blue. I would say BS is a 1-of only because it's never bad, but eventually a deck gets tuned to the point where never bad isn't good enough.  Could be wrong though, will be interesting to see.

[LordHomerCat]

I would argue FoF is better.  But as far as BS goes it's never bad, but I don't think it's so good that it's an auto-include for blue. I would say BS is a 1-of only because it's never bad, but eventually a deck gets tuned to the point where never bad isn't good enough.  Could be wrong though, will be interesting to see.

Every blue deck I play from now on will start with 4 FOW, 1 Ancestral, 1 Ponder, 1 Brainstorm, and almost always 1 Merchant Scroll unless something really odd happens.  No question, the card is an auto-include if you can reasonably cast it.  We all know how broken it is to draw ancestral in the opener, and now you can draw brainstorm in the opener and play it turn 2-3 and get almost the same advantage as you got from resolving your own Recall and stopping your opponent.  In normal formats, people eventually tune out the 1-ofs and stuff, but the restricted list means we don't do that here, and Brainstorm is better than every unrestricted card in the format, particularly all the blue ones, and you would be crazy not to play even 1.