The Future of Blue: Bridging the Brainstorm Gap

[AngryPheldagrif]

I was actually torn between presenting my new Slaver list or my new Tog list, but after getting around to reading Smmenen's article on the new Vintage metagame I couldn't help but notice that not only did he already cover the new Slaver, but he hyped Drain Tendrils while leaving out Tog entirely. Now I want to make clear, nothing against Codi Vinci, but I've always viewed the deck's barely adequate results more as a function of the pilot rather than the strength of the deck itself. Sure it has won tournaments, but how many of those were on the back of a single pilot? I think of the deck the same way Oath was when I played it long past its time even in my estimation; a deck good in a particular set of hands and not much more.

That being said, I couldn't help but notice that Steve placed post-restriction Drain Tendrils right up there in the first tier along with Slaver and an unknown Workshop deck. I will freely go on record as saying I believe that that is a mistake and you can hold me to it if I am proven wrong. I see the deck (for reference, I am going off Codi's list from this article) as flawed on a major level, something I don't see being fixed merely by modifying the decklist he proposed.

Drain Tendrils always stood out to me as an odd deck because it always seemed the perfect candidate to run Duress yet never did. This meant many of the first turns involved either land, go, land, go with Brainstorm up, or land, off-color Mox with AK for 1 up. In all my matches against the deck I've found abusing this 1-2 turn window of inactivity lead to some particularly brutal blowouts on my side. Even opening with 3 mana up usually meant the most I had to worry about was an Intuition or Thirst on my endstep. That being said, once the deck hit its stride around the 2nd and 3rd land drops it really kicked into high gear and was able to flow into a storm kill very efficiently. I highly question the new DT's ability to accomplish this without Brainstorm as both a way to survive mana-light hands and as a way to stay relevant before the deck's second turn. Off an opening hand containing at most an off-color Mox and an Island, DT can make the following plays off its first land drop:

1 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Accumulated Knowledge
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Chain Of Vapor
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Ponder
1 Time Walk

Of these, assuming for the sake of discussion that you have no pressing need to bounce non-land permanents, this leaves 13 potential plays. 4 cycle, 4 involve the top three cards of your library, 4 tutor (half to hand and half to top of deck), and 1 both cycles and critically reaches you to the second land drop. Dropping the off-color Mox from consideration leaves you potentially with just the 4 three-card spells and a pair of disadvantage tutors. Only Ancestral Recall and Brainstorm represent actual strategic resource shifts from those 6, while including the off-color Mox allows you the other tutors and Time Walk to affect the state.

In a nutshell, any hand without extra mana sources leaves you little ability to alter the game dynamic aside from your ubiquitous set of Forces of Will. To take that a step further, any hand that contains 2 or less mana and a single blue source is inherently risky due to the possibility that you cannot dig for additional sources in a timely fashion. This dilemma is one I am well familiar with having experienced it numerous times with an old favorite of mine. In honor of those miserable games I call it the Gifts paradox.

The Gifts paradox was thus: assume that due to the nature of the deck as a hybrid of Yawgmoth's Will-centric combo and blue control, you will see a number of hands with powerful spell complements but low on mana by comparison. Too strong to mulligan, but potential dead-ends. How can you minimize the odds your opponent can beat you while you're fixing the hand, while maximizing the odds you will find the third Island in a timely manner? Gifts (here is the reference list for those keeping track at home) managed the former with 6 pitch counters and 3 Duresses, while the powerful Merchant Scroll for Ancestral engine handled the latter. Being able to reliably utilize disruption and create a resource advantage off nothing more than a blue source and an off-color Mox allowed such hands to gain traction and made mulligan decisions significantly easier. Note that I'm not even including Brainstorm in that description because it doesn't truly shift the resources in a way I considered meaningful at the time.

I was always wary about Drain Tendrils for that reason, but I accepted its use of Brainstorm as an issue of fluidity. The first blue source casts Brainstorm into the second blue source which casts either the Mana Drain or the next level draw spell. It seemed to work out alright. New Drain Tendrils, however, has access only to what I described in the above paragraphs. This represents a tremendously reduced ability to overcome the Gifts paradox. The fact of the matter is that a set of Forces of Will are not a guarantee against your opponent defeating your game plan, nor is Mana Drain when an opponent has a plethora of dynamic-altering plays available before you can assemble two blue mana untapped. Duress/Thoughtseize, Red Elemental Blast, Goblin Welder, and Thorn of Amethyst/Sphere of Resistance are all things that I expect to see out in force in the coming months. It is precisely these cards that make me extremely wary of considering Drain Tendrils as a strong contender, let alone the deck to beat of the coming format. It is all these threats and more that I see in the other decks that he places in the top tiers. I won't even begin to get into my feelings on simply conceding the first game to Dredge as DT does. Maybe Codi Vinci can still win with the deck. Maybe not. But for the average player, I see DT as a miserable experience waiting to happen for those who pick up the deck and try it out against the new metagame.

The Gifts paradox in particular, but also the entire space of the first land drop and exchange of turns in general, are what I see as the definitive measure of the new blue. Slaver seeks to address this with Goblin Welder, an archetype-defining creature who represents an incredible number of angles as both a threat and an answer, all packed into the ridiculously cheap cost of a single red mana. I see Thoughtseize almost completely replacing Duress as the primary, for the sole reason that it hits the little goblin, an especially critical play on the first turn in many hypothetical matchups. I predict combo moving away from blue and further towards black on the basis that black has those stellar Thoughtseizes to fill the niche that the first turn Brainstorm once offered, as blue no longer has much to offer up to compensate. As for other ways to bridge the space, well I believe there may be more ways as yet undiscovered.



I do think it would be unfair of me to tear apart such a lovely shell as Drain Tendrils and not offer something substantiative to replace it. To this end, as promised earlier, I would like to offer my own blue deck as an alternative, one I have been working on in my post-restriction gauntlet since the announcements went up. Losing the Scroll/GushBond engine tears the heart out of Grow-A-Tog, but I hearken back to the days before 4 Merchant Scrolls became the norm to find the shell I believe can contend as a replacement: Hulk.

Hulk Smash, post-6/20:

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
4 Thoughtseize
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Gush
1 Fact or Fiction
4 Accumulated Knowledge
3 Intuition
2 Deep Analysis
1 Empty the Warrens
2 Psychatog
1 Cunning Wish
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Time Walk
1 Extirpate
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Lotus Petal
4 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
4 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
5 Island
SB:
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Extirpate
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast
1 Fling
2 Rack and Ruin
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Fire/Ice
1 Echoing Truth

As a conceptual shell, Psychatog gives you more maindeck disruption, less dependency on an alpha-strike turn, less potentially dead cards at any given time, and most importantly of all in my opinion, the ability to operate fluently through a given range of land drops relative to mana costs. You have the same ability to walk an opponent into a Mana Drain to power a broken turn, while Thoughtseize and your other active control pieces give you a wider range of options in the event that your opponent lays threatening cards before you have a chance to bring your engines online.

Is it perfect? Likely not. But for those who liked pre-restriction Drain Tendrils or especially Gifts back in the day, I would highly recommend tweaking the above list to your liking and taking it for a test drive. With a deadly efficient balance of disruption and draw, Tog has always been a very user-friendly deck in the annals of blue-based control. Perhaps it is time for it to see the light of day once more.

Peace, love and the pursuit of happiness,
The AngryPheldagrif

[zeus-online]

I think you're lacking a few cunning wish's, i'd run at least 2...and am currently running 3, although that does have the problem of adding even more 3CC cards to the deck...i have however won a few games on Intu-Wish-Berserk....Which i could not have done with only 1-2 wishes.

I am surprised that you are not running any green at all, i think berserk is just so much better then fling since it really sucks to get time walk'ed by a welder/shaman/whatever.

Regrowth would also be an option, but i have chosen not to run it as it sucks early game.

I think you're a little low on mana, i'm running 24 and i am seriously considering going up to 25.

/Zeus

Edit: Oh and it was a nice read ::Thumbs up:: 

[akabane]

Good read 

I'm also seriously considering switching again to dr.teeth.
I'm currently playing also 1 Mind Twist MD and 1 wish.
I don't think green is worth splashing for berserk, we always have sufficient supplies to give to atog for flinging..
the only thing where i see green is vs artifact, but i have to test.
Zeus online, could you post your manabase?
Thanks.

[zeus-online]

Currently my mana base looks like this:

Mana: (24)
3 Underground sea
2 Volcanic island
1 Tropical island
6 Fetch
4 Island
1 LoA
5 Moxen
1 Black lotus
1 Mana crypt

The trop is only for berserk, but i really don't see 1 trop weakening the mana base and i think berserk is miles better then fling.

I tried academy but found it lacking, it's only good in already strong hands...I also tried sol ring, but i found that it interfered more with my plays then helped them.
I don't think 4 sea's are necessary as there's only a few black spells in the deck (2-3 psychatogs, 3-4 duress/Thoughtseize, demonic, will, maybe vampiric) that's 10 at MAX.

If black mana becomes a problem i'll probably add sea#4 or a basic swamp.

/Zeus

[Grand Inquisitor]

Hulk Smash, post-6/20:
-1 Empty the Warrens
-2 Psychatog

Drain Tendrils

+1 Tinker
+1 DSC
+1 Tendrils

Obviously it isn't this simple.  I think your post does a nice job of describing the post-restriction constraints of combo control.  I just find your conclusion (that Tog is the logical choice over DT) unsubstantiated.  DT could incorporate thoughtseize to smooth the mana curve, and it's anyone's guess right now which set of win conditions is more appropriate for the emerging metagame.  At the end of the day, the card choices in your Tog list don't really solve the 'brainstorm issue'.  It may turn out that making your manabase immune to wasteland until you hit 2-3 mana is more tactical than trying to brunt the opposing attack with thoughtseize.  In this sense, a suite of blue cantrips (and/or sensei), even if they're not brainstorm may be what sets up the most effective use of broken blue and black spells.

[meadbert]

For reference this is the list that Cody currently recommends.  Basically I agree with him card for card.

2 PollutedDelta
3 FloodedStrand
4 UndergroundSea
4 Island
1 TolarianAcademy
1 BlackLotus
1 LotusPetal
1 MoxRuby
1 MoxJet
1 MoxSapphire
1 MoxEmerald
1 MoxPearl
1 ManaVault
1 SolRing
1 ManaCrypt
1 Sensei'sDiviningTop
1 DarksteelColosus
1 TendrilsOfAgony
1 Yawgmoth'sWill
1 DemonicTutor
1 VampiricTutor
1 Tinker
1 MerchantScroll
1 TimeWalk
1 Ponder
4 ForceOfWill
1 Gush
1 FactOrFiction
2 Intuition
2 Rebuild
4 ThirstForKnowledge
4 AccumulatedKnowledge
4 ManaDrain
1 AncestralRecall
1 Brainstorm
1 ChainOfVapor
1 MysticalTutor
sideboard:
4 PithingNeedle
4 LeylineOfTheVoid
4 Duress/Thoughtseize
1 Darkblast
1 EchoingTruth
1 Hurkyl'sRecall

A few comments:

1)  What is the right number of lands?
Cody and I are both satisfied with 14 lands, but Ryan Quick who tests the Stax vs. DT matchup frequently has warned us that he thinks we need 15-16 lands.  Angry Pheldagrif recommends 16 in his list.  While 16 may be correct for Pheldagrif's list since it has more high cc spells like DA, Tog and Warrens and also more colors I have not needed it in DT so far.  I went in fully expecting to need the 15 lands and I have been testing againt Stax, Turboland and ICBM Oath and I continue to find that 14 lands works just fine.

2)  What is the right configuration of lands?
I have more concerns about the 4th Underground than Cody does.  Cody thinks it is a no brainer because post board we really want black available on turn 1 to Duress/Thoughtseize.  Also it helps hardcasting Leyline which matters in a world where Dredge plays Chain of Vapor.  I still agree with Cody about running 4 Underground Seas, but I do have reservations because when I do lose to mana shaftage it is usually the result of having an early Sea wasted.  If an early Sea is wasted because I wanted to play Demonic/Vamp then that is fine, but if it because I only had Seas then I am upset.

2.b) Why no Library?
There are enough Duress effects and excuses to use Force early that Library rarely draws that many cards.  We have discussed swapping Gush for Library so we can have 15 lands.

3)  Hurkly's versus Rebuild?
Chalice@1 is much worse against DT than it used to be since Brainstorm was restricted.  This makes Chalice@2 far more likely to show up and thus having Rebuild is important.  Also Rebuild Cycles which is nice flexibility in the control mirror and also is a way to smooth out draws.  Angry Pheldagrif did not mention Cycling Rebuild above, but that is a fine turn 1 play.

4)  Gush - This is probably the worst card in the deck, but it randomly dodges Wasteland.  It is free draw.  It draws 4 cards for free when trying to combo out with Yawg.  Gush was restricted for a reason.

I am a bit confused by Angry Pheldagrif's Suggestions.  He was correct to point out that there are only 21 turn 1 plays if you count artifact mana, Force, Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top, Chain, Mystical and Vamp.
 
This means that 4% of the time you are without a turn 1 play.  While this is annoying it is neither the end of the world when it does happen nor does it happen frequently enough for me to lose sleep.  Dredge is almost 50% more likely to mulligan to 1 than Drain Tendrils is to open with no turn 1 play.  The board contains 4xLeyline, 4xNeedle and 4 Duress/Thoughtseize and in that manner you are even less likely to have no turn 1 play post board than you are in game 1.

The solution that Angry Pheldagrif suggests is to add Red and Thoughtseize to the deck.  I actually believe these are each the opposite of what Drain Tendrils wants to do.
When I lose to mana shaftage it is almost never because I did not have enough land in my opening hand.  It is also only rarely because I fail to draw into land.  Instead, when I lose it is because I get an Underground Sea Wasted early.  Island, Mox, Underground is fine because you can open with Island, Mox and then on turn 2 you can cast Thirst or even Gush before Wasteland and thus find another land.  Even if you cast Intuition for 3x AK you are still going to AK into three more cards next turn allowing you to see atleast 4 cards.  Drain Tendrils is perfectly happy to simply draw into another land drop every turn.  I play games all the time where I Waste/Strip a land on turns 2, 3, 4 and 5 and Drain Tendrils just sits there and draws a ton of cards and then casts Rebuild and combos out in my face.  Problematic starts are as follows:

1)  Island/Fetch, Underground.  This can be troubling, but is not that bad.  Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top, Scroll, Demonic, Vamp, Mystical and Gush all help in that they ensure you draw enough cards to find more land.  If instead you do not draw into that land and Underground is wasted then you are stuck on just Island.  At the end of the day this is just not that scary because of all the ways you can wiggle by above.

2)  Underground, Mox.  This is much scarier.  You get one chance to Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top, Demonic, Vamp into more land.  Gush cannot help.  Neither can Mystical or Merchant Scroll.  I HATE keeping these hands against Wasteland.dec and it is one of the biggest reasons that I would drop to 3 Undergrounds in the main.

For the reasons above I understand where Angry Pheldagrif is coming from when he suggests dropping artifact mana for non basic lands.

Please note that the solution to #1 above is not to drop Underground Sea on turn 1 and cast Thoughtseize.  Fetching out Underground too early can be near suicide for Drain Tendrils.  Thoughtseize is bad in Drain Tendrils for the same reason that MisD is bad.  Drain Tendrils is not about playing gigantic bombs that must be protected at all costs.  Gifts did that and thus it really wanted to protect its Gifts Ungiven/Fact or Fiction/Ancestral Recall/Yawg/Tinker.  For this reason Gifts used its counter magic to protect its own bombs.  This included protecting DSC.  Misdirection was great in Gifts.

Drain Tendrils is the opposite.  Spells like Thirst for knowledge, Gush and AK for 2 are strong spells but they are not huge bombs that must be protected at all costs.  Instead you just throw out draw spells and see what happens.  You can gain card advantage by resolving Thirst and AK for 2 or you can gain card advantage by watching your opponnet Force Thirst and AK for 2.  DSC does not need to be protected.  It is perfectly acceptable to just throw Tinker out there and see what happens.  If it is Forced then your opponent lost two non bounce blue cards to your 1 blue card and 1 artifact.  If they bounce it then you just cast Thirst and discard DSC and you are back to the races.

Drain Tendrils and Hulk Smash diverge with Thist for Knowledge.  This is probably the wrong time to drop Thirst from Drain Tendrils since Sensei's Diving Top makes Thirst better than ever.

Drain Tendrils runs more artifact mana, Thirsts, Tinker/DSC, bounce and Tolarian Academy.

Hulk Smash runs more lands, Deep Analysis, Tog, Warrens, Cunning Wish and Thoughtseize.

For the most part Hulk Smash takes more mana to "get going."  Its draw is based around Deep Analysis and Intuition more heavily.
Hulk Smash also runs less fast mana.  It dropped Academy, Vault, Sol Ring and Crypt.  For these reasons it appears to me that Hulk Smash will be the slower deck.
Hulk Smash mitigates its slower start by running a full set of Thoughtseize The trouble is that using turn 1 to go Sea, Thoughtseize can set Hulk Smash up for a huge tempo loss if Underground Sea is Wasted.  This is acceptable in many circumstances because Thoughtseize should have slowed your opponent down and your opponent lost their land drop by using Wasteland as well.  The risk, is that if your opponent is recurring lands with Crucible then you are in trouble in that you are unlikely to have more than 1 land in play for a while and with so little artifact mana and a draw engine that starts at a higher cost it will be tough to keep drawing into lands.  Basically against ICBM style oath the above play is fine because Thoughtseize would have taken their Oath, and if they use Wasteland on your Underground it is a fair trade.  If instead you are playing Stax and take their Trinisphere/Smokestack but they still have Crucible left then you are in some trouble.  Still, with 16 lands Hulk Smash is going to have a solid mana base.  What is tougher to justify is dropping other restricted cards:

1)  Sol Ring, Crypt, Vault, Academy.  The days of 4xScroll finding Ancestral or Force on turn 1 and relying on Gush as a draw engine are over.  I know Sol Ring competes with Duress, but it is a really good card.  This is especially true in a deck with DAs.  Going turn 1 land, Sol Ring.  Turn 2, Land, DA is nice.  Between DA, Intuitions and Cunning Wish there are plenty of uses for Sol Ring/Mana Crypt mana.  Crypt/Vault are dangerous in that they do not play with the life loss of DA/Fetch/Force/Thoughtseize so I can understand some fear here.  Still three of those cards have at one time or another been claimed to be the best card in magic.  I am not claiming they are the best card in magic now, but justification is needed for dropping Crypt, Sol Ring and Academy.   

2)  Graveyard hate:  Drain Tendrils fights through graveyard hate quite well.  Thirst is a wonderful draw engine with Leyline/Crypt out.  Leyline is scarier since Crypt usually means that AK for 2 resolves and it is not used till AK for 3 comes around.  Drain Tendrils also has Tinker->DSC.  Hulk Flash's graveyard hate plan is mostly to use Empty the Warrens.  With so few artifact mana and so little bounce it will be difficult to fuel a large Warrens without the Yard.  A small Warrens and Tog will annoy the heck out of Fish for sure and a small Warrens can worry Stax, but getting that small Warrens out will be tough.  More on this later.  Basically Hulk Smash is more reliant on the yard although no overly so.

3)  Chalice of the Void:  Drain Tendrils runs 1 extra 0cc spell in Mana Crypt, but the 3 bounce really help here as do Sol Ring and and Vault since they allow for quick acceleration through Chalice@0.  Thirst for Knowledge can be used to cycle through useless Moxes till you are ready to win.

4)  Null Rod:  Drain Tendrils runs 11 cards that are shut off by Rod which is pretty bad, but against 3 Bounce spells make a huge difference as do the Thirsts which are happy to pitch useless artifacts.  This is still an advantage for Hulk Smash which has 16 lands to develop its base.

5)  Wasteland:  Hulk smash runs as many fetches and an extra basic.  In this manner it has a more resiliant base.  Hulk Smash also has a reason to want to fetch out Underground early for Thoughtseize.  This makes this close to a toss up in my mind.  What would have been a huge advantage for Hulk Smash is instead at least close because of Drain Tendrils ability to happily fetch out Island on turn 1.

6)  Aggro:  Deep Analysis and Thoughtseize can add up taking a lot of life.  Also, I am going to guess that Hulk Smash goldfishes slower frequently allowing Aggro an extra turn to swing.  This is pure speculation.  Drain Tendrils can win on turn 4 if you push it and it is thus able to race aggro.  If aggro takes the form of Shop Aggro then you have your bounce to help you out as well.  Empty the Warrens and Tog are both awesome against Aggro.  Thoughtseize can also grab creatures.  Somehow I doubt either deck will be particularly vulnerable to Aggro.

7) Empty the Warrens - This is a nice win in general, but in my experience Warrens is best against Stax when it is a turn 1/2 play.  Basically, once the game starts Stax should be able to keep a 4cc sorcery off the table.  If it cannot then it has failed to execute its game plan anyway.  Warrens is actually better with more artifact accelerants, more bounce and a full Set of Brainstorms which allows for a quick Warrens that Stax has trouble answering.  If instead Stax gets Tanglewire, Resistor, Thorn or Trinisphere out then casting Empty the Warrens becomes tough.  In my mind cards like Mana Crypt and Mana Vault actually make Empty the Warrens much better!

Angry Pheldagrif, posted an interesting deck idea.  These are my thoughts.

[AngryPheldagrif]

Let me first thank you all for your suggestions and comments. I agree that Tog is a work in progress and my list is far from perfect, and will be updating it as I incorporate suggestions into my testing. I'll try to address some of the main points brought up.

On green:
I do not feel the deck can support the fourth color, even off a single Tropical. To that end, Fling is still a relevant substitute to Berserk, and red offers sufficient artifact destruction for my tastes. I believe red is the superior color because it supports a strong second kill condition as well as more useful Wish targets, the REBs in particular.

On Tog as the superior concept:
I am much more concerned with the shell than the kill itself. I propose my list simply because it is the kill I found most effective for the shell. I no longer believe that the traditional shell of Drain Tendrils is capable of being an efficient combo deck without Brainstorm, and chose Tog because the deck has become at heart a control deck and Tog is a more versatile control finisher.

At the end of the day, the card choices in your Tog list don't really solve the 'brainstorm issue'.

I don't believe you can simply 'solve' the issue. If you could, your discovery would warrant restriction just as Ponder apparently did. I believe my list posted comes closer than anything I've seen in post-restriction blue. If you have ideas on this I'd love to hear them. Including my Tog list was as much an afterthought as anything. The primary purpose of this article is simply to identify the issue and start a discussion on how to best deal with it, thus I figured I may as well include my own idea.

What is the right number/configuration of lands?
I am more worried in the new metagame about facing a dedicated mana attack than anything else. Not just from Workshops, and definitely not just from Wastelands, but from Null Rod, Chalice, even Stifle and Magus of the Moon. Sphere of Resistance and Thorn of Amethyst are also a big fear. In essence, my concern is not just being cut off from UU, it is being cut off from reaching the 2U to cast Rebuild against, say, any given two of the above list. I believe 5 fetches and 5 basics is a minimum, and I don't think crutching on an excessive number of artifact mana is the right direction.

On turn 1 plays:

I am a bit confused by Angry Pheldagrif's Suggestions.  He was correct to point out that there are only 21 turn 1 plays if you count artifact mana, Force, Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top, Chain, Mystical and Vamp.
 
This means that 4% of the time you are without a turn 1 play.

The question is not about having a turn 1 play, it is a question of having a relevant turn 1 play. If you open with Underground Sea, Mox, Accumulated Knowledge for one, you have not altered the game dynamic, you have achieved no card advantage, and you have opened yourself up to a mana disruptive play. In essence, I am saying you lack turn 1 plays that actually matter. People highly underestimate how powerful a turn 1 Brainstorm is compared to what we have now.

The solution that Angry Pheldagrif suggests is to add Red and Thoughtseize to the deck.  I actually believe these are each the opposite of what Drain Tendrils wants to do.

That is why the list I proposed is not Drain Tendrils, it is Control Psychatog. You offered several examples as to opening plays involving various manas and their vulnerabilities to Wasteland. The question becomes instead how they fare against Chalice, Spheres of Resistance, or even a Stifle? You can't address everything as a question of Wasteland. Every deck running the card will have at least one more piece along with it to worry you.

[Ufactor]

Psychatog looks to be the less mana-hungry deck.  I would recommend more slots for Cunning Wish.  Wish>FoF, Wish>Extirpate.  Wish is possibly more appropriate than the main deck bounce spell or Mystical Tutor.

...it's even plausible to build a fifteen-instant sideboard

Sideboard
4 Extirpate
4 Ancient Grudge
1 Echoing Truth
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Brain Freeze
1 Berserk
1 Firestorm
1 Red Elemental Blast
1 Lava Dart

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=35615.0

[LSV]

Ill admit that I haven't played with these lists specifically, but is there a reason that there aren't any Dark Confidants present in any of these lists? I played various incarnations of Storm/Tendrils decks for the last two years and Dark Confidant has always been outstanding. Recently we have been sideboarding him in Doomsday, but now that decks like Stax and Control Slaver, as well as the decks presented here appear to be more prevalent, I would definitely consider playing him main. He may not fit as well in the Control Tog deck, but Drain Tendrils seems like the perfect deck to take advantage of him, and he wouldnt necessarily be bad in Tog.

Bob is a pretty potent tool in any matchup that isn't blisteringly fast (Flash/Ichorid were the main reasons he was relegated to the SB before) and even gives your opponents incentive to keep/add otherwise dead removal spells.

[feyd]

Dark confidants and darksteel colossus don't mix very well.  If you flipped colossus off confidant I would think you'd change your tune a bit.  I usually play confidant tendrils and think that playing confidant with all these draw spells would certainly clog up your hand very fast...which could be excellent considering all the fast artifact mana in this deck and the top.  The damage coming from confidant could be offset by adding a second top.  Its kind of a paradox.  Adding another top and 3-4 confidants would make tinker stronger...but the risk of flipping a colossus with confidant is even more frightening considering all the aggro I expect to see at my local metagame (besides, I have flipped colossus before and lost tournament matches which I otherwise would have won).  Its hard to justify taking out confidant to bring in a tinker/colossus from the sideboard since confidants make the tendrils kill so much better.
    I think confidants and colossus are anti-synergistic and you have to make up your mind what kind of win condition you preffer: tendrils (possibly accompanied by confidants) or aggro (warrens, colossus).  Obviously tendrils and confidants mix since they are on color and warrens is just slightly worse since it is off color.  But mixing confidants and colossus, in my experience, is just asking to be burned.

[Webster]

Dark confidants and darksteel colossus don't mix very well.  If you flipped colossus off confidant I would think you'd change your tune a bit.  I usually play confidant tendrils and think that playing confidant with all these draw spells would certainly clog up your hand very fast...which could be excellent considering all the fast artifact mana in this deck and the top.  The damage coming from confidant could be offset by adding a second top.  Its kind of a paradox.  Adding another top and 3-4 confidants would make tinker stronger...but the risk of flipping a colossus with confidant is even more frightening considering all the aggro I expect to see at my local metagame (besides, I have flipped colossus before and lost tournament matches which I otherwise would have won).  Its hard to justify taking out confidant to bring in a tinker/colossus from the sideboard since confidants make the tendrils kill so much better.
    I think confidants and colossus are anti-synergistic and you have to make up your mind what kind of win condition you preffer: tendrils (possibly accompanied by confidants) or aggro (warrens, colossus).  Obviously tendrils and confidants mix since they are on color and warrens is just slightly worse since it is off color.  But mixing confidants and colossus, in my experience, is just asking to be burned.

Having confidant and colossus in the same deck really is a non-issue.

The only hurdle is the mindset of having _one_ eleven casting cost card in the deck and the lack of synergy that is created from that.

And yes, I have flipped DSC off confidant; more than once. I won those games.

[CHOZO]

Could Wee Dragonauts be used as a win condition in this type of deck?

[wiley]

For reference Here is an old vintage list that grew a dragonaut: http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=655

Personally I think that it doesn't really belong.  Psychotic Fury might have a spot alongside fling if the space isn't too tight though.  I just don't see where you have the room.

[Nehptis]

At the end of the day, the card choices in your Tog list don't really solve the 'brainstorm issue'.

I don't believe you can simply 'solve' the issue. If you could, your discovery would warrant restriction just as Ponder apparently did. I believe my list posted comes closer than anything I've seen in post-restriction blue. If you have ideas on this I'd love to hear them. Including my Tog list was as much an afterthought as anything. The primary purpose of this article is simply to identify the issue and start a discussion on how to best deal with it, thus I figured I may as well include my own idea.

On turn 1 plays:

I am a bit confused by Angry Pheldagrif's Suggestions.  He was correct to point out that there are only 21 turn 1 plays if you count artifact mana, Force, Ancestral, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top, Chain, Mystical and Vamp.
 
This means that 4% of the time you are without a turn 1 play.

The question is not about having a turn 1 play, it is a question of having a relevant turn 1 play. If you open with Underground Sea, Mox, Accumulated Knowledge for one, you have not altered the game dynamic, you have achieved no card advantage, and you have opened yourself up to a mana disruptive play. In essence, I am saying you lack turn 1 plays that actually matter. People highly underestimate how powerful a turn 1 Brainstorm is compared to what we have now.

You hit the nail so hard on the head with both of these comments.

I really was shocked at how much the lack of Brainstorms as a 4 of truely affects the speed / consistency of a deck.  This is going to be a huge problem for Blue sans 4 BSs, IMO.

Slaver, Tog, Painter or even Oath have potential to be successful.  But, I think they need a new draw engine.  Just like with Steve's Oath 2.0, on paper, Bazaar paired with DAs or something similar seems viable and perhaps where we may evolve to post Restrictions.  Hulk Smash without Mana Drain and plus Bazaars??? who knows?? But, it's going to be an interesting season.

[kalisia]

Ill admit that I haven't played with these lists specifically, but is there a reason that there aren't any Dark Confidants present in any of these lists? I played various incarnations of Storm/Tendrils decks for the last two years and Dark Confidant has always been outstanding.

I completely agree with LSV.
In reality, in many decks, we have to consider Dark Confidant as the "new" Brainstorm.
For example, AngryPheldagrif mentions this:

2)  Underground, Mox.  This is much scarier.

Typically, Dark Confidant, in hand, transforms magically this scary hand in very good hand. By playing USea, Mox, Dark Confidant on first turn, you're in a good shape to dig into your second or third land.
I really think that the future of Brainstorm is the tool Confidant (+ Sensei when the inclusion is possible)..

[Grand Inquisitor]

your discovery would warrant restriction just as Ponder apparently d

Ok, good point.  So why'd you title your thread "Bridging the Brainstorm Gap"?

No where in your post do you convince me you have a serious understanding what the emerging metagame is going to look like on turns 0-2.  Replacing Brainstorms 2-4 with 1x Ponder, and a decklist that is now four metagame cycles old is something lots of people have thrown around here with little evidence of why this would work.  This recommendation comes from an idea that a lot of these same people are saying about Drain Tendrils (with the same -3 brainstorm + 3 not brainstorm approach) and then you give a weak argument of why replacing the win conditions and running thoughtseize is superior.

Do I have an answer to losing brainstorm?  No.  The entire blue based combo-control strategy has to be rethought.  Let me emphasize that, the entire strategy.  Landstill, Mono Blue, and Oath decks (Smennen throws out an interesting take here), i.e. control decks, may be able to adjust.  However, anything resembling our recent history (GAT, Hulk, Slaver, Gifts, GAT) needs to start over.

[zeus-online]

Do I have an answer to losing brainstorm?  No.  The entire blue based combo-control strategy has to be rethought.  Let me emphasize that, the entire strategy.  Landstill, Mono Blue, and Oath decks (Smennen throws out an interesting take here), i.e. control decks, may be able to adjust.  However, anything resembling our recent history (GAT, Hulk, Slaver, Gifts, GAT) needs to start over.

I think you are exaggerating a bit...Gifts is dead sure, gat just got owned sure...but slaver still seems very viable right now as it's only really god awfull match-up just got worse (Fast combo) while ichorid still needs to be dealt with (probably SB issues and maybe a few MD changes) Hulk also seems viable in my mind, even without brainstorm. The thing is that hulk got few truly dead draws unlike slaver, long and a host of other type1 decks.

I'm not sure if this is the best take on the archetype as i think it's too low on mana, 24-25 seems right to me.

How to adjust to losing brainstorm? run a bit more mana, some other cheap draw (Top, night's whisper or maybe something like impulse/opt) As long as blue decks can hit their land drops they'll be fine - They still got a lot of good cards and probably all-over the best disruption available.

/Zeus

[Grand Inquisitor]

How to adjust to losing brainstorm? run a bit more mana

http://www.morphling.de/printview.php?c=2&d=1

http://www.morphling.de/printview.php?c=3&d=8

http://www.morphling.de/printview.php?c=3&d=8

(27ish mana slots)

There were some exceptions where going fewer colors allowed a lower mana count (26).  And eventually fetchlands helped:

http://www.morphling.de/printview.php?c=3&d=2

http://www.morphling.de/printview.php?c=11&d=4

But as much as people can claim these lists are from a former era, or had terrible deck construction, or from a weaker metagame, or were (ghasp) European, it's much more salient that the current metagame is still much faster (ichorid, belcher), and capable of much better mana denial (9sphere).

slaver still seems very viable right now

Based on what?  Ichorid is always problematic, fast workshop aggro was never as good a matchup as stax, aggro of many stripes used to bury slaver.  And now, there's no way to smoothe it's weakest turn (1) or get rid of meddlesome robots when you don't have thirst.

hulk got few truly dead draws

People have to realize brainstorm was hugely important to psychatog being able to run its manabase.  Not to mention that it won in a metagame where none of its adversaries currently exist.  Tog could beat up on slower control decks, bad red/green decks, and devote energy to combo, workshops and goblins.  It retains none of those luxuries and adds more requirements for SB/MD hate.

I know I'm ranting here, but people just aren't going to be able to retrofit old decks and be hunky-dory (at least not after the first few weeks where everyone is 'experimenting').

[Aardshark]

Dark confidants and darksteel colossus don't mix very well.  I usually play confidant tendrils and think that playing confidant with all these draw spells would certainly clog up your hand very fast

I agree with Web that bob + dsc is non-issue; the relatively high average mana-cost of the deck may be.

I've been testing drain tendrils for some time, and my reason for not adding dark confident has come down to opportunity costs.

The benefits of bob are obvious.  The downsides are that he's sorcery speed (which can conflict with mana drain), requires 2-3 turns to yield on the investment, and is somewhat frail. Perhaps the biggest drawback is that, like duress, bob tempts me to fetch out u-sea on turn 1, exposing me to wasteland.  I reasoned that if I added draw I'd have to cut instant speed draw (since cutting mana, bounce, tutors or the modest kill seemed bad ).  But in most cases the instant draw seemed better: quicker ROI, no conflict with mana drain, and I don't give a target to random otherwise mostly dead spells (CoV, e-truth, swords, fire/ice, etc). 

The calculus is a little different now with brainstorm being presumptively replaced with top, ponder, merchant scroll, and/or gush.  I could see some number of confidants being better than some of these cards. However, I'm even more worried than I was before about fetching an early dual land in the heavy workshop meta I anticipate immediately after June 20. Maybe the solution  is to add a swamp, but then mana drain comes on line a turn later... 

My gut says that the presumptive heirs to brainstorm are still better.  But I could be wrong. 

[Smmenen]

So much to say... not even sure where to begin.

Let me start with a quote from my article this week:

"These restrictions will create change, quite a bit in fact (as I’ve hopefully shown), but I doubt that the effect will be to broaden the format so much as to change its composition. People sometimes get the two confused. The momentary metagame chaos creates the impression of a wide open format rather than a format where some decks will replace others. Restrictions that make some decks unplayable necessarily remove an option from the metagame."

My point here is not to make the point that I made in my article, which was that the format won't necessarily be any broader or more diverse, but that the confusion - the chaos engendered by catalytic system changes foments cognitive confusion on the part of many players.  Specifically, lots of things seem up for grabs (and they are).  Over time, a metagame will coalesce and the possibilities that seemed real will once again evaporate.   

I say all of that as a long way of saying that I respectfully disagree with this:

  However, anything resembling our recent history (GAT, Hulk, Slaver, Gifts, GAT) needs to start over.

I think Slaver, circa 2006, is a fine choice and I think really little needs to be done to it.   Two Tops are a perfect fit for Slaver, since it runs Welders and the other slot is easily filled with Ponder.   I don't think that the entire blue archetypes need to be rethought at all.

Rather than critique or respond or address the central contention of this thread (that Tog is a metagame player, etc), let me suggest another way of looking at this problem.    There are a limited number of implementation of basic engines (although there are infinite permutations or recombinations thereof).   Psychatog is probably a fine concept, although not all fine concepts make the move from concept to tournament performance, which is where I think Tog will ultimately come up short.   

On the deck though, I would quibble with a couple of choices.  I think that the two key competitive advantages that Tog can bring to the table is Deep Analysis and Cunning Wish, both incredibly powerful cards, even more powerful than they were before.   I agree with Tom van de Logt and would not run less than 3 Cunning Wish.  Two Deep Analysis could be correct, although I would consider three.   I have a long history playing Tog, including help develop the Paragon Hulk Smash deck that won the first Vintage championship, and piloting Tog for some time, including written several primers on it. 
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9194.html
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/9238.html
http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/15375.html

Here's how I would build it, differences in bold:

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
4 Thoughtseize
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will

4 Accumulated Knowledge
3 Intuition
2 Deep Analysis
1 Empty the Warrens
3 Psychatog
3 Cunning Wish
1 Time Walk

1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
4 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island
5 Island

SB:
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Extirpate
2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast
1 Firestorm
1 Beserk
1 Oxidize/Artifact Mutation
1 Rack and Ruin
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Fact or Fiction/Vampiric Tutor
1 Echoing Truth

Still, I think that this deck probably won't be viable, esp. with the loss of Brainstorm. GI is correct that losing Brainstorm is devastating for Tog.  But I think he overstates his case for Slaver. 

[meadbert]

The question is not about having a turn 1 play, it is a question of having a relevant turn 1 play. If you open with Underground Sea, Mox, Accumulated Knowledge for one, you have not altered the game dynamic, you have achieved no card advantage, and you have opened yourself up to a mana disruptive play. In essence, I am saying you lack turn 1 plays that actually matter. People highly underestimate how powerful a turn 1 Brainstorm is compared to what we have now.

This is a good explanation for why Brainstorm is better than Accumulated Knowledge in the early game.  If we proposed replacing Brainstorm with AKs then it would be a relevant argument.  I do think this is a good example to use though.
Lets assume that we would have had Brainstorm in that hand prerestriction.  Since we are no longer running Brainstorm we presumably have Ponder, Scroll or Top instead since those are the three cards we added when we had to pull 3 Brainstorms.  How keepable is this hand with those cards AND an AK.

Ponder ends up playing out very similarly to Brainstorm.  The difference is that we will not know if we are being Duressed and should put something on top and we basically have to make our decision earlier.  The advantage is that we can dig deeper if we need to find that extra land.  Since you proposed oppening with Underground there are likely no Islands or Fetchs or we would have oppened with those.  Ponder is close to as good as Brainstorm in this situation.
The second option is Sensei's Diving Top.  Top is much weaker without a Mox, but in this case we have a mox so we can both play and activate Top which will allow us to see 3 cards deep to find Force.  Also we can go as far as 4 cards deep to find our land for the next turn.  In some respects that makes Top better than Brainstorm.  The weakness is that we would be more vulnerable to Null Rod.

The final example is Scroll.  In general opening a game with Mox, Underground, Scroll->Ancestral Recall is very good.  It does have a huge hole in that it leaves us wide open to Wasteland if there is not another Underground Sea in hand.  This could be an argument that Scroll is bad or it could be an argument that Underground Sea is bad.

Overall Drain Tendrils just at least close to as well as it used to when it starts with a Mox.  With no Mox the loss of Brainstorm hurts more.  Ponder is still a fine play, but Scroll would have to wait till turn 2 and Top could not be activated other than to draw your top card.

Well what if Drain Tendril's best turn 1 play is Underground, Mox, AK for 1?

How common is this?
How bad is this?

In order for the above play to be your best it means:
1)  You have no Fetches/Islands
2)  You have none of the other 20 turn 1 plays I mentioned earlier or Scroll.

That means that of the other 4 cards in your hand none of them belong to the 30 cards listed above.
There is less than an 8% chance of that happening given that the first 3 cards are Underground, Mox, AK.
If you have a second Underground and/or Academy then Tinker/Intuition/Thirst/Drain all give you very strong turn 2 plays if your mana is not disrupted.  Although this hand would certainly be a slow hand, it is not a particularly bad hand against many decks.

Anyway, the example is a good example that is important, but it is neither very likely nor terrible if it does happen.  I still hate having to open with Underground Sea though.