GWS Long v2.0 - Return to Glory

[ErkBek]

Teams sure have been quiet about whatever they’ve been working on for post-rotation Vintage. I too have kept my projects on the down low, but with no tournaments on the horizon, I’ve decided to post the two decks that have risen to the top in my testing.
 
The first is the evolution of my favorite deck, my masterpiece, GWS Long.
 
GWS Long 2.0
 
Cyclers 3
3 Street Wraith
 
Lands 12
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Underground Sea
1 Badlands
1 Swamp
1 Tolarian Academy
 
Acceleration 16
5 Moxen
1 Black Lotus
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Crypt
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Vault
1 Lion’s Eye Diamond
4 Dark Ritual
1 Cabal Ritual
 
Protection 7
3 Duress
1 Pact of Negation
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Rebuild
 
Kill 2
2 Tendrils of Agony
 
Business 20
2 Night’s Whisper
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
3 Grim Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
1 Tinker
1 Memory Jar
1 Timetwister
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Mind’s Desire
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
 
You can check out the extensive primer I wrote on playing the deck back in June of 07 here: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=33269.0.

This maindeck is powerful, consistent, and versatile. It honestly doesn’t feel like this deck lost much in terms of power in the loss of Brainstorm, while much of its competition is significantly worse. In my opinion, this is the deck to play.
 
I haven’t tested many sideboard games; though I’m confident most matchups will either stay the same or improve post board just like my original build from 1 year ago. So many solutions are available in these three colors enabling you to win every single sideboard war if you play your cards right. 
 
Let’s look at my sideboard from May 07.
 
1 Volcanic
4 Pryoblast
2 Extripate
3 Empty the Warrens (Fish and stax)
1 Planar Void
2 Massacre
1 Island
1 Chain of Vapor
 
Pryoblasts and Extirpates gave me a great Gifts and even better Slaver matchup. Warrens + 4 bounce spells + 13 lands post board gave me a good shop, fish, and SS matchups.
 
The sideboard dynamics change significantly with the loss of Brainstorm. I used to board into an extremely efficient combo control deck vs. all combo control and control. Brainstorm was huge in sculpting postboard in those matches.
 
The funny thing is I don’t think I need to try and become a combo control deck post board anymore. I can just continue to go for the throat, since control decks have lost a lot of staying power. I’ll be starting out with a sideboard something like this:
 
2 Island
3 Extirpate
1 Planar Void
2 Yixlid Jailer
4 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 DSC
1 Duress
1 Pact of Negation
 
Future Sight has made Dredge a little more of a threat, so I’ll have to pack more than just a couple of Extirpates to combat the matchup. 3 Extirpates, 2 Jailers, and the single Planar Void complicate their sideboarding significantly. If Belcher makes a splash, 3-4 of these hate cards can simply become Pithing Needles.
 
The 4 Hurkyl’s Recall are simply because they are the most efficient answer to Shop’s extra spheres (and shift toward aggro).
 
Some explanation of the maindeck is warranted so here goes.
 
0 Imperial Seal
 
My initial list had Seal, however, I was finding that without Brainstorm to smooth draws with 2 top-deck tutors, Imperial Seal was just creating more problems than it was solving. I cut Imperial Seal for a 3rd Grim Tutor which has been a huge improvement. Drawing two Grim Tutors usually isn’t that bad. The first one can locate Black Lotus enabling Yawg Will kills, or it can be used to recover quickly after slamming your first threat into Force of Will.
 
0 Windfall
0 Gifts Ungiven
0 Frantic Search
0 Windfall
0 Slithermuse
2 Night’s Whisper
 
All five blue “bombs” have been tested, all five were bad. . Each increased the mana curve of the deck too much. Night’s Whisper has been amazing for smoothing draws, finding mana, and increased threat production. Night’s Whisper is just an excellent play on turn 1 or 2 to further your mid game, turn 2-3.
 
 
0 Island
1 Swamp
SB: 2 Island
 
This is a change I made and have liked it so far. In my opinion, there simply aren’t enough blue cards in the deck to warrant two lands that only produce blue (Academy and Island). I can trace a significant number of my losses to that single island not tapping for black, so it’s time for it to go. The basic Swamp on the other hand enables you to make your turn 1 plays (Duress, Night’s Whisper, Necropotence, Demonic Tutor, Rit->Grim) off a basic land. If you are uncomfortable with no basic Island in your maindeck, play the Island.

Thanks for reading. I’ll do my best to answer all questions and comments.

-Eric Becker
Team GWS

[Ged]

Thanks Eric for the decklist.

A couple of questions:
1) Street Wraith was 'an automatic four of' when the card was printed... and then, after a few tries, haven't found a home in many archetypes. How was it in your testing and did you find problems with mulligan or loss of life because of SW?
2) Simian Spirit Guide was 'too valuable' in GWS Long v1.0. Prison will probably be Tier 1 in a new meta, and SSS works well against 9sphere decks. You did not find him useful any more, or there isn't room for SSS in this version?
3) What do you think of Merchant Scroll instead of one Chain of Vapor? It can find Pact, Ancestral, Brainstorm & Mystical and still fetch a bounce when you need it.

[ErkBek]

1) Street Wraith was 'an automatic four of' when the card was printed... and then, after a few tries, haven't found a home in many archetypes. How was it in your testing and did you find problems with mulligan or loss of life because of SW?

4 Street Wraiths were initially in the deck, but 4 just proved to be too much life loss. In a given game, Long typically sees anywhere between 12 and 30 cards. Its not uncommon to see 2 or 3 Street Wraiths if you run 4. That damage can really add up. I had been wanting to fit in 1 Cabal Ritual for some time, so I went ahead and cut a Street Wraith straight up for a Cabal Rit.

2) Simian Spirit Guide was 'too valuable' in GWS Long v1.0. Prison will probably be Tier 1 in a new meta, and SSS works well against 9sphere decks. You did not find him useful any more, or there isn't room for SSS in this version?

SSG was really important in the heavily red sideboard that the original build ran. Without Brainstorm to smooth draws, I don't think the deck can afford to blow cards for 1 red mana arbitrarily.

3) What do you think of Merchant Scroll instead of one Chain of Vapor? It can find Pact, Ancestral, Brainstorm & Mystical and still fetch a bounce when you need it.

I rarely have a problem of lack of business spells with this list and I really like having 2 Chain of Vapor. Chain usually a great card to hit on a Draw 7, unlike Merchant Scroll. Chain also quickly deals with problematic perms.

While I have never tested Merchant Scroll in Long, Justin Droba has and he told me it wasn't very good. In Long you can't spend a bunch of time tutoring up Ancestral, you need to go about winning, and finding threats efficiently.

[zeus-online]

How fast is this deck?
I'm guessing Turn 1-3. It's similar to the one i've been testing, so i'm guessing that it's about the same speed.

Is mystical tutor really better then imperial seal? Seal gets lotus which is often relevant (Since lotus is the best card in the deck IMO)

/Zeus

[Purple Hat]

yes, you can use mystical on your upkeep or their endstep to snag almost anything without another draw spell in hand.  Imperial seal requires you to have a drawspell in hand to get what you need now.

[zeus-online]

How is that different then playing I. seal right away? you get the card the same turn regardless.

You could ofcourse draw into mystical tutor, but the only card draw you can use as an instant is A. Recall or street wraith.

Only difference i can see is that the opponent has a little longer to prepare for whatever you seal'ed for.

/Zeus

[Polynomial P]

Is street wraith better than Manamorphose? They both cycle, but Manamorphose actually does something: Add to storm, play off will, fix mana.

[nineisnoone]

The main problem with Manamorphose is that it cost r/g and we don't get that easily.  Even if we alter the mana base, we would only be getting it off lands, so you probably would have to do it early, meaning you already had access to whatever color you needed.  i.e. if you had a Recall in hand, you could manamorphse your Badland Swamp into U.  Of course, in that case, you should just stick to U and play then you'd be able to cast Recall all the same.  If there were red rituals, it would be useful to fix mid-stream, but typically you'll just be generating B mana.

[ErkBek]

How fast is this deck?
I'm guessing Turn 1-3. It's similar to the one i've been testing, so i'm guessing that it's about the same speed.

Is mystical tutor really better then imperial seal? Seal gets lotus which is often relevant (Since lotus is the best card in the deck IMO)

/Zeus

Yes, this deck is the same speed as original Grim Long, turn 1-3.

Now that I've cut the basic Island, Mystical Tutor gets worse. I was liking Mystical a little more than in '07 now that Pact of Negation is in the deck, however swapping it bad out for Seal might be the way to go. It's a swap worth trying out for anyone that gives the deck a try.

The main problem with Manamorphose is that it cost r/g and we don't get that easily.  Even if we alter the mana base, we would only be getting it off lands, so you probably would have to do it early, meaning you already had access to whatever color you needed.  i.e. if you had a Recall in hand, you could manamorphse your Badland Swamp into U.  Of course, in that case, you should just stick to U and play then you'd be able to cast Recall all the same.  If there were red rituals, it would be useful to fix mid-stream, but typically you'll just be generating B mana.

This is right on the money.

Manamorph is a great storm card, just not right for this deck imo.

[Sean Ryan]

U/b Grim Long was the 2nd deck I thought about after the bomb was dropped (Slaver was the first,  like everyone else).

I've been playing something similair minus:
3 Street Wraith
2 Night Whisper
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Tendrils

+3 Dark Confidant
+1 Imperial Seal
+1 Pact of Negation
+2 Duress/Thoughtseize

I never liked Street Wraith because of the muligan issue.  I chose Bob first for the sideboard with the idea that I could have the option to slow play if needed, but then moved him maindeck.  The more I think of it Nightwhispers might be better more often.  There have been games where Bob has stuck around for more than two turns before I win but they are rare.  Why so few Duress effects?  5 or 6 have been working out best for me, as I almost always want one in my opening grip.

   

[Purple Hat]

maybe it's just me, but I've never understood the Street Wraith mulligan issue.  I think about it this way: If those 3 street wraiths were any other draw spell, say brainstorms, then I'd still have to have thought about what's likely to come off the top of my deck, what else is in my hand and have practiced with my deck to know what to do.  Now with street wraith I have exactly the same issues, I just don't have to pay mana for them.  I don't think it makes your mulligan decisions any harder or easier, it just makes you think they're harder or easier.  if you have a 6 card borderline hand with brainstorm in it you still have to look at the hand and decide what you could draw that would make it bombish and what your odds of drawing that are.  Same thing with street wraith.

[Dante]

There's a big difference between seeing 1 card and seeing 3 cards though.

[madmanmike25]

Many people anticipate an influx of 9 sphere Shop decks.  Some of those decks even play with Chalice...and Null Rod might even make a comeback.  Your 1-basic land mana base is a Shop players wet dream.  How would this deck fare on the draw?   

Post SB what do you take out for the Hurks?  Might some split of Hurks/Bobs work?

The deck seems bomb-tastic on the play to be sure.  I like the fact that if a spell is FoW'ed you just play another bomb, or can Duress first. 

The fact that Street Wraith can also help achieve threshold(for free) is quite useful for Cabal Rit.

[M.Solymossy]

Many people anticipate an influx of 9 sphere Shop decks.  Some of those decks even play with Chalice...and Null Rod might even make a comeback.  Your 1-basic land mana base is a Shop players wet dream.  How would this deck fare on the draw?   

Your view of the format to come is somewhat skewed.   9 Sphere will be nowhere if anyone is intelligent, because a ton of basic lands will see play ( I am assuming at least 9 islands from mono blue, and at least 4 from every other non-combo deck), there will be Goblins again in this format, as well as a good Red Green Beatdown deck, and other creature decks may or may not be playable.  Chalice at 1 won't wreck decks like it used to either.   I would LOVE to play grimlong all day against shop players.

[Zherbus]

9 Sphere will be nowhere if anyone is intelligent, because a ton of basic lands will see play ( I am assuming at least 9 islands from mono blue, and at least 4 from every other non-combo deck), there will be Goblins again in this format, as well as a good Red Green Beatdown deck, and other creature decks may or may not be playable.

I concur with that for the most part. I just want to add that Workshops price point makes it a smidgen harder to play that other decks. Depending on the proxy standards of a particular area, it might also be relevant.

[hvndr3d y34r h3x]

I've tested shop a lot against most of the post r/b lists that people seem poised to play. Honestly, I'd be surprised to see shop make the 2-0 bracket. People are playing much stronger mana bases than they have been, a lot of drains, and chalice for one doesn't hurt much in a lot of the decks I'm seeing. I'd say long has a very good chance of avoiding the shop matchup, especially in the 2-0 bracket.

[ErkBek]

Many people anticipate an influx of 9 sphere Shop decks.  Some of those decks even play with Chalice...and Null Rod might even make a comeback.  Your 1-basic land mana base is a Shop players wet dream.  How would this deck fare on the draw?   

Post SB what do you take out for the Hurks?  Might some split of Hurks/Bobs work?

The deck seems bomb-tastic on the play to be sure.  I like the fact that if a spell is FoW'ed you just play another bomb, or can Duress first. 

The fact that Street Wraith can also help achieve threshold(for free) is quite useful for Cabal Rit.

It's not like I roll over and die to a single Wasteland + Rod/Sphere. 2x Chain of Vapor really helps fight though all Shops, non-chalice@1 perms. 

Pact and 3 Duress come out for sure. Bargain and Desire often boarded out vs. shops, always on the draw at least. Tinker/Jar may come out if they play Welder.

If you ever can't allow yourself to board out something, Street Wraith can come out.

[LordHomerCat]

I'm curious why you didn't bother with Empty the Warrens anywhere.  I really love the basic lands into Hurkyl's plan post-board against shops, so I can understand if you don't need to bother with empty there, but I wonder if there are any other matchups where it would be strong (like if UW fish is playable again).  I'm definitely not saying it needs to go in, but I was just curious why you don't have any, since theoretically it seems pretty good (and without scroll for Etruth, it seems much harder to deal with now).

Edit: Night's Whisper seems insane as well Eric.  Man, I thought I had a pretty solid starting point on Grimlong but I gotta admit, I think I'm gonna have to just use this as my baseline now.  Nice deck etc.

[ErkBek]

I'm curious why you didn't bother with Empty the Warrens anywhere.  I really love the basic lands into Hurkyl's plan post-board against shops, so I can understand if you don't need to bother with empty there, but I wonder if there are any other matchups where it would be strong (like if UW fish is playable again).  I'm definitely not saying it needs to go in, but I was just curious why you don't have any, since theoretically it seems pretty good (and without scroll for Etruth, it seems much harder to deal with now).

Edit: Night's Whisper seems insane as well Eric.  Man, I thought I had a pretty solid starting point on Grimlong but I gotta admit, I think I'm gonna have to just use this as my baseline now.  Nice deck etc.

Thanks Jimmy.

I decided to eschew the ETW plan for no single reason, but for combination of factors:

1) The Hurkyl's is much safer than the Warrens plan against Sphere effects. Warrens was great against stuff like Chalice and Rod, since you didn't actually have to deal with those to play a Warrens for 8ish tokens. Sphere on the other hand has to be dealt with still before you play a Warrens. Imagine if you are on the draw against a Workshop deck, would you rather have an Empty the Warrens or a Hurkyl's Recall in hand? There's about a 60% chance they'll have a least 1 sphere effect in hand, so you'll want a reactive card, a bounce spell.

2) The shift away from Red. My sideboard plan vs. combo-control decks involved boarding into a "better combo-control deck than theirs." With the loss of Brainstorm I lose that ability. Moreover, SSG gets a whole lot worse when you never can Brainstorm him away. The loss of SSG (and cutting of the Volcanic from the board) makes turn 1-2 Warrens for 8-12 much more difficult to cast. Note: I'd still consider playing a couple SSG's on the board to help power out bounce spells through Spheres

3) A lot of Fish decks are playing the Stifle -> 12/12 guy combo. This results in them having more Stifle effects for my storm spells, but also the ability to race 8ish 1/1's.

4) Brainstorm was a very good enabler of mini-warrens. A mini-Warrens look like:

Turn 2: Tap land, BS (hitting a Mox or Ritual)
Land
Mox / Petal
Ritual
Warrens
etc.

With all of that said, I'd consider playing 1 Warrens on the board since I can expect Shop decks to board in Leylines against me, occasionally shutting down the good old: EOT -> Hurkyl's you. Untap -> Rit, Rit -> Tutor -> Will -> GG

[Ufactor]

This is slightly off topic, but it seems like the average combo hand, without Brainstorm, (no matter what build) goes:

 1. Land
 2. Land
 3. Ritual
 4. Duress (or Force if it's PL)
 5. Unrestricted combo enabler (Grim Tutor if it's GL or PL, Bob if it's Confidant-Tenrils, Intuition if it's IT, etc.)
 6. Restricted Card Drawing/Tutor
 7. Random Card (most likely artifact mana)

This seems like you get four, maybe five mana on second turn.  You get one maybe two bombs, and one protection spell.  This seems like it's going to be hard to go off with any deck.

You need eight mana and four spells (or four mana with eight spells and an extra turn) to go off with Confidant-Tendrils.  That would be Mox, Lotus, Ritual, Ritual, Tendrils, Tendrils.  That leaves you three or four cards off from the example hand, IF it's agreed that it's a plausible average.

You need seven mana (or multiple bombs) to go off with Grim Long/Pitch Long.  That would be three Rituals, Grim Tutor, or two Rituals, and two Grim Tutors (Ritual, Ritual, GT->Lotus, GT->Yawgmoth's Will.  Play Lotus, Will, replay Lotus, Ritual, Ritual, GT->Tendrils, play with exactly ten spells).  That leaves you two cards off, again with the assumed hand.
 
For IT, you need six or seven mana to go off depending on what you need to tutor for.  I'm assuming here that you are Intuition-ing for Mana(x3) or Tutor(x3) or Brainstorm/Ponder/Ancestral as the cheapest way to hit Yawgmoth's Will.  This is leaves you two mana and one other card short, again believing the above set up to be valid.

This is, however, the perfect set up for Rector-Tendrils.  I've always believed that RT is the worst possible combo deck, even when it's considered playable, but it works on less resources than any of the other possibilities.  This is important when Brainstorm cannot relied upon to provide the next mana source/card draw/combo piece.  Almost like a step above Belcher, as it were, that you're opening seven cards decides whether you can win or lose.  With the above hand, the play can be turn one) land, Therapy, GO!, turn two) land, Ritual, Rector, flashback Therapy, putting Bargain into play.  That's only five cards and only four mana!!  What a steal.  At this point you can either elect to pass, so that you see a land drop next turn, or draw umpteen cards (attempting to go off) and couch fist for a blue or black mana source.

You just read all of this for nothing, however, if the environment is Crypts and Leylines all day.
EDIT: Oh yeah, add Extirpates in there as well.

[The Demon]

I got on MWS and did one hundred 7 card hands.  I started with two or more land in my opening grip 54 times.  Like I said I only did it one hundred times but that does seem to be about right in retrospect.  Still that does not seem too bad for this deck at all.  You still can go off early with this deck, and you can still win a lot of games with proper play if the game goes on longer.

[Harlequin]

I never trust the MWS shuffler, especially for decks that don't run alot of 3 and 4 of.  In MWS with a 60 card decks it favors cards you run in multiples.  So if you run 4x Island and 1xBlue_CardA, 1xBlue_CardB, 1xBlue_CardC, 1xBlue_CardD.  You will draw more Islands than Blue cards (which mathematically should be equal).

Using Probability Theory...

60 card deck, 12 lands, draw 7 cards yields the following probability distribution

Exactly n == Prob(n)
0 == 19.06%
1 == 38.13%
2 == 29.26%
3 == 11.08%
4 == 2.22%
5 == 0.23%
6 == 0.01%
7 == 0.00021%

So probably of n = 2, or 3, or 4 ... = 1 - Prob( n =/= 0 or 1 ) = 42.81%

Expection of Lands in 7 card hand = 1.4

Note that you are more likely to see a 1 land hand than any other hand (by about 10 percentage points).

Being on the draw (60; 12 lands; 8 cards) you have...
0 == 14.75%
1 == 34.53%
2 == 31.65%
3 == 14.72% ...

which bumps the Expection to 1.6

Increasing land count to 13 (60;13;7)
0 == 16.28%
1 == 36.14%
2 == 30.98%
3 == 13.21% ...

With Expectation of 1.52

and on the draw (60;13;8)
0 == 12.29%
1 == 31.95%
2 == 32.73%
3 == 17.14% ...

Expectation of 1.73

[ashiXIII]

Do you find that this sideboard is enough to beat Ichorid? do you ever wish you had another card or 2? Why decide on the Planar Void and 2 Jailers instead of Leylines? Was it just for the diversity against Ichorid, or also because you could bring in the singleton in other matchups where you wouldn't want 4 Leylines?

[Purple Hat]

This is slightly off topic, but it seems like the average combo hand, without Brainstorm, (no matter what build) goes:

 1. Land
 2. Land
 3. Ritual
 4. Duress (or Force if it's PL)
 5. Unrestricted combo enabler (Grim Tutor if it's GL or PL, Bob if it's Confidant-Tenrils, Intuition if it's IT, etc.)
 6. Restricted Card Drawing/Tutor
 7. Random Card (most likely artifact mana)

This seems like you get four, maybe five mana on second turn.  You get one maybe two bombs, and one protection spell.  This seems like it's going to be hard to go off with any deck.

You need eight mana and four spells (or four mana with eight spells and an extra turn) to go off with Confidant-Tendrils.  That would be Mox, Lotus, Ritual, Ritual, Tendrils, Tendrils.  That leaves you three or four cards off from the example hand, IF it's agreed that it's a plausible average.

You need seven mana (or multiple bombs) to go off with Grim Long/Pitch Long.  That would be three Rituals, Grim Tutor, or two Rituals, and two Grim Tutors (Ritual, Ritual, GT->Lotus, GT->Yawgmoth's Will.  Play Lotus, Will, replay Lotus, Ritual, Ritual, GT->Tendrils, play with exactly ten spells).  That leaves you two cards off, again with the assumed hand.
 
For IT, you need six or seven mana to go off depending on what you need to tutor for.  I'm assuming here that you are Intuition-ing for Mana(x3) or Tutor(x3) or Brainstorm/Ponder/Ancestral as the cheapest way to hit Yawgmoth's Will.  This is leaves you two mana and one other card short, again believing the above set up to be valid.

This is, however, the perfect set up for Rector-Tendrils.  I've always believed that RT is the worst possible combo deck, even when it's considered playable, but it works on less resources than any of the other possibilities.  This is important when Brainstorm cannot relied upon to provide the next mana source/card draw/combo piece.  Almost like a step above Belcher, as it were, that you're opening seven cards decides whether you can win or lose.  With the above hand, the play can be turn one) land, Therapy, GO!, turn two) land, Ritual, Rector, flashback Therapy, putting Bargain into play.  That's only five cards and only four mana!!  What a steal.  At this point you can either elect to pass, so that you see a land drop next turn, or draw umpteen cards (attempting to go off) and couch fist for a blue or black mana source.

You just read all of this for nothing, however, if the environment is Crypts and Leylines all day.
EDIT: Oh yeah, add Extirpates in there as well.

isn't it a bigger problem for rector-tendrils that brainstorm can't be relied upon to put bargain back in your deck?

on the topic of this deck vs ichorid, shouldn't you just be trying to race?  I think you're almost better off not boarding or boarding in bounce for leyline of the void or artifacts to speed up your kill....post board ichorid is gonna bastardize itself to prevent your anti-ichorid transform....aren't you better off just not transforming and storming them out?

[zeus-online]

It's better to have the cards, that way you can make your opponent confused...

Like this situation:
Ichorid wins game 1.
Ichorid boards alot of anti-anti-ichorid cards in, you don't board anything (But still pretend to do so)
You win game 2.
Ichorid boards all the anti-anti-ichorid cards out, you board your anti-ichorid cards in, and thrump him with cards he can't answer.

Having the option to board hate in is better then not having it.

/Zeus

[Anusien]

It's better to have the cards, that way you can make your opponent confused...

Like this situation:
Ichorid wins game 1.
Ichorid boards alot of anti-anti-ichorid cards in, you don't board anything (But still pretend to do so)
You win game 2.
Ichorid boards all the anti-anti-ichorid cards out, you board your anti-ichorid cards in, and thrump him with cards he can't answer.

Having the option to board hate in is better then not having it.

/Zeus

Ichorid isn't going to board out their defenses game 3.  They're going to tailor what they need based on what they see, but depending on the player/sideboard the whole 15 might come in and stay in.  I think you want to have a variety of different hate options available and decide based on what you see.  That said, you don't want to not sideboard against them; that's a recipe for disaster.

[Vegeta2711]

I got on MWS and did one hundred 7 card hands.  I started with two or more land in my opening grip 54 times.  Like I said I only did it one hundred times but that does seem to be about right in retrospect.  Still that does not seem too bad for this deck at all.  You still can go off early with this deck, and you can still win a lot of games with proper play if the game goes on longer.

FWIW, Modo stats puts 2 land in opener from 12 around 42% and 50% after seeing an 8th card.

[Ufactor]

You just read all of this for nothing, however, if the environment is Crypts and Leylines all day.
EDIT: Oh yeah, add Extirpates in there as well.

isn't it a bigger problem for rector-tendrils that brainstorm can't be relied upon to put bargain back in your deck?

on the topic of this deck vs ichorid, shouldn't you just be trying to race?  I think you're almost better off not boarding or boarding in bounce for leyline of the void or artifacts to speed up your kill....post board ichorid is gonna bastardize itself to prevent your anti-ichorid transform....aren't you better off just not transforming and storming them out?

The option is available to run alternate Rector targets.  Necropotence, Form of Dragon and Future Sight all come to mind.

After testing Grim Long, I actually found that both versions (GWS and Smemmen) are very UNAFFECTED by the loss of Brainstorm.  Both decks goldfish on an average of turn two with suprising regularity.  So, Rector might have been a solution for a problem that never existed.

[zeus-online]

Only the goldfish speed is unaffected, it seems like they're more likely to just crap out if you manage to stop the first two turns.
Not that the old long decks where all that good if their start was stopped.

So less resilience, same speed.

But! Blue based decks have lost some of their ability to stop the broken starts, so maybe nothing changed, or maybe long-ish decks gained, time will tell.

/Zeus

[Moxlotus]

I always want to see 2 lands by turn 2.  With 9ball.dec and stiflenaught, your first land isn't necessarily safe.  That's why I think a basic island and basic swamp are a necessity if you want to have a good game against those decks in game 1.  I refuse to lose to mana screw against any deck.  If I'm going to lose, it will be because my opponent had great cards, not because my deck gave me cards I couldn't cast.  Night's Whisper and Wraiths help you find that second land to give you the stability to kill on turn 2 through any disruption--counters or wastelands/stifles.  This is a turn 2 deck that can win on turns 1 or 3.  The vast majority of my kills have been on turn 2 on the play, or turn 3 on the draw.  You can make the deck faster, but more vulnerable to hate.  I'll always trust my ability to outplay my opponent with a bit of stability rather than up my turn 1% and hope they don't waste my land or play a turn 1 chalice or stifle my fetch.

I can safely say that when playing this deck (with the 2 basics main) I am not afraid of 9ball.  In fact, I'd say the match is slightly favorable.  Basics and bounce are your friend, don't leave home without them.  You smash the hell out of control slaver by virtue of having a few disruption pieces and dark ritual.

I like the diverse sideboard for Ichorid.  It forces them to not only find an answer, but the correct one.  Plus you can just race them since you're not cutting out any speed, but rather just cutting duresses.