Playing Burn in 2 days. Help!

[Jay]

I'll be playing mono red burn in the PTQ in Indianapolis sunday, and I feel I need to make some last minute changes.  First, I'll start by listing the deck:

11 Mountain
 4 Blinkmoth Nexus
 2 Darksteel Citadel
 4 Great Furnace
 4 Keldon Marauders
 4 Mogg Fanatic
 4 Lava Spike
 4 Magma Jet
 4 Rift Bolt
 4 Shrapnel Blast
 4 Sulfuric Vortex
 2 Flames of the Blood Hand
 4 Spark Elemental
 2 Volcanic Fallout
 2 Smash to Smithereens
 1 Incinerate
(SB)
 4 Pyrostatic Pillar
 4 Ensnaring Bridge
 2 Volcanic Fallout
 2 Smash to Smithereens
 3 Boseiju, Who Shelters All

The reason I'm asking for help is because I have problems beating a couple of the popular decks and I still may be making mistakes with how I choose to sideboard.  The main deck works well and I'm playing it well, but I could still change a couple cards around if need be.  I'm considering dropping 1 sulfuric vortex into the sideboard and replacing it with either a 12th mountain or another incinerate.  Here are the decks I've noticed in the top 8 the most recently over the past month:

1) Zoo (53)
2) Faeries (35)
3) Elf combo (23)
4) TEPS (17)
4) Bant Aggro (17)
6) Next Level Blue (11)
7) Burn Deck Wins (8)
8) Aggro Loam (7)
9) Affinity (6)

I can pretty much assume I'll see a Zoo deck, a Faery deck, and maybe an elf deck, and that the rest will be hit or miss.  I like my game against zoo, and my game against elves is so-so but I don't think I can improve it much by changing anything.  The problem is I keep losing when I test against my Faeries deck.  Right now, this is how I sideboard against Faeries:

-4 Spark Elemental
-1 Incinerate
-1 Sulfuric Vortex

+3 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
+2 Volcanic Fallout
+1 Smash to Smithereens

I'm sure there's someone out there that's played more face-to-face than I have and can tell me some better choices for that match up. Can anyone help?

P.S.  I also lose to Bant Aggro every time.  I'm like 5-10 vs Faeries and 0-12 vs Bant.  I'm wondering if it's even possible for me to win that one.

I should also include how I lose to Faeries.  They have enough draw power that they almost always see a Jitte and a counterspell (or 3).  They just let me beat them down to about 8 life, countering whatever they can, and then equip a Jitte and turn the game around.  Vortex would work great if they didn't always counter it, and I haven't got to use Boseiju to push a Smash through yet, but that's something I was thinking of.  Damage to the face usually doesn't finish them off because they usually have like 4 counters on Jitte by the time I can get them to 0.

[Matt]

1. Hellspark Elemental needs to get in there pronto. Much better than Spark Elemental.
2. Have you considered Isochron Scepter?
3. I don't know 1.x that well, but is Smash to Smithereens really better than more Incinerates?
4. I assume it's the RRR of Flame Javelin keeping it out of contention? It does a nice trade with RWM.
5. Boseiju wtf?! This looks incredibly trashy, unless I'm missing something.

Lastly, since you'll be racing a lot of matches, don't underestimate a well-timed Threaten or Unwilling Recruit (if you can swing RRR) for a big life swing.

[IthilanorStPete]

To the above poster: Smash to Smithereens is definitely good with all the Moxen and Jittes running around. Also, Scepter is just slow and vulnerable.
Boseiju doesn't seem that great compared to, say, Vexing Shusher. Also, I wouldn't SB out the Vortex.

[Jay]

1. Well 2 of 9 burn decks that top 8'd post conflux agree that Hellspark Elemental needs to be in there, but that's not enough to convince me.  I'll test it a bit and consider finding room for it, but I doubt it'll have time to work its way in by tomorrow.  As for taking out Spark Elemental, I've found that when my deck runs only 12 1-drops, I tend to lose more.
2. No.  Neither has anyone else to my knowledge.
3. I'm seeing about half of the net decks starting to run Smash to Smithereens, and I was starting to play test them in the main before I saw that.  They're just too useful when every other deck runs Jitte, which can shut me down.  I've found plenty of other uses for them as well that I don't feel like taking the time to get in to.
4. I'm sure I'd run Flame Javelin in standard, but it's horrible in extended.  I'd run 2 more Flames of the Blood Hands way before that.
5. I actually agree with you that Boseiju is a sub-optimal card, but I really needed an answer to counter spells.

IthilanorStPete: Thank you for reminding me of Vexing Shusher.  I hadn't been testing with it because I didn't have any copies, but I picked up a set today.  And when I was looking for room in my deck a friend suggested dropping Vortex down to 3, but I still have them at 4.  But keep in mind over half the net decks only have 3.

All I did for my main deck was drop the incinerate for a 3rd Volcanic Fallout.  Here's my new SB:

4 Ensnaring Bridge
4 Pyrostatic Pillar
2 Smash to Smithereens
4 Vexing Shusher
1 Volcanic Fallout

(I would really like to find room for some Pithing Needles but I feel the above cards are more important atm)

What I really need help with is my sideboarding choices.  I'll be on here tomorrow morning before heading to the PTQ and hopefully I can get some feedback before then.  If you have a minute to look this over and think I'm doing something wrong, please point it out because I haven't had enough time to test all of these out yet:

vs Zoo:
+4 Ensnaring Bridge
+1 Volcanic Fallout
-2 Smash to Smithereens
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand
-1 Spark Elemental

vs Faeries:
+4 Vexing Shusher
+1 Volcanic Fallout
-1 Flames of the Blood Hand
-4 Spark Elemental

vs Elf combo:
+4 Pyrostatic Pillar
+4 Ensnaring Bridge
+4 Volcanic Fallout
-4 Sulfuric Vortex
-4 Spark Elemental
-2 Smash to Smithereens
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand

vs TEPS
+4 Pyrostatic Pillar
+2 Smash to Smithereens
+3 Vexing Shusher
-3 Volcanic Fallout
-4 Sulfuric Vortex
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand

vs Bant Aggro:
+4 Vexing Shusher
+4 Ensnaring Bridge
-4 Spark Elemental
-2 Smash to Smithereens
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand

vs Next Level Blue:
+4 Vexing Shusher
+2 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Volcanic Fallout
-4 Spark Elemental
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand
-1 Sulfuric Vortex

vs Burn:
+2 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Volcanic Fallout
-3 Sulfuric Vortex

vs Aggro Loam:
+4 Ensnaring Bridge
-4 Spark Elemental

vs Affinity:
+2 Smash to Smithereens
+4 Ensnaring Bridge
-2 Flames of the Blood Hand
-4 Sulfuric Vortex

[IthilanorStPete]

Zoo: Not sure that I board in Fallout. The only guys you're probably going to hit are Fanatic and...Figure, I suppose?
Fae: I'd probably drop the other Flames for a 3rd Smash, since Jitte is pretty good against you.
Everything else looks good.

[Jay]

I played 2 Zoo matches, and in both I boarded out Smash and Flames for Bridge.  Beat the first guy, and lost to the second.  I don't recall any play mistakes so I think it was mostly bad luck.  Then I lost to elves even after boarding in the pillars, bridges, and 4th fallout, partly due to some bad judgment on my part.  Round 4 I was paired up against Bant, which I always lose to.  I somehow managed to win game one but on games 2 and 3 he just got rid of my bridges and beat me down.  Looking back, the deck still looks pretty well and I don't think I would change any thing.  I just need to mulligan a little better and get better pairings and draws next time.