Vintage Adept Q & A #4: To keep or not to keep?

[Demonic Attorney]

Play scenario:  It's game 2. Player A is on the play. They mull and fan open a six card hand of Force of Will, Mystical Tutor, blue card, Demonic Tutor, Tormod's Crypt x2. They know Player B is playing Dredge. Do you keep in this situation? Is Crypt x2 strong enough to warrant keeping a no mana hand knowing that there are 24 mana sources in the deck? If the Crypts were Leyline of the Void do you keep?

[Demonic Attorney]

Taking last things first, if I opened a hand with double Leyline, Force, blue card against Ichorid I'd stop right there and announce keep, even if the rest of my hand was comprised of Yugioh cards.  In the New England meta at least, people rarely use Leyline as a sideboard card, and as a result, very very few Ichorid decks run Reverent Silence in the sideboard.  Consequently, double Leyline plus counter backup probably buys, at a minimum, 6-7 turns.

So, the Ichorid deck would need to find a combination of mana, bounce spells, and disruption that they're usually in a poor position to get to in time.  Conversely, I have a 12/27 chance, slightly worse than 50:50, of finding mana in my next draw.  Assuming I have something in the neighorhood of 15 blue sources, I have slightly better than a 25% chance of finding mana that enables Mystical.  Given the timetable above, I can be confident in my deck getting online before Ichorid gets out from under double Leyline and starts dredging from square one.  Making this situation even better is the ability to Force and still have Mystical in hand, which will turn into Ancestral upon drawing into one land, which in turn should solve my mana issues and set up DT, which should put me on my way to winning.

Going back to the thrust of the question, 2x Tormod's Crypt is a bit shakier.  Ichorid packs many more cards to disrupt artifacts, including Pithing Needles of its own.  Also, Crypt doesn't buy the same amount of time as Leyline.  In my experience, a Tormod's Crypt gets you 2-3 turns if played optimally and not answered by Ichorid's sideboard.  This makes hoping for a blue source to come along in time a closer call.  

Nevertheless, going to 5 against Ichorid is a really rough spot to be in.  Particularly if I didn't bring in a whole lot of other hate cards, and thus would have a low chance of mulling into a 5-card hand that had Ichorid hate in it, I'd probably keep. I'm obviously hoping to turn the draw into a Hail Mary land rip into Mystical into Ancestral, since Ichorid has few ways of stopping that play.  

...lastly, I note that, since the time the question was posted, the rules have changed such that I'd have additional information in the form of whether Ichorid mulled or not.  I don't think it would tip the balance enough to change my decision, but I'd be significantly more nervous if Ichorid kept its first 7.

[Harlequin]

Game 2 on the play, means you have to win this game to stay in the match; and then win one more after this.

My gut says mull.  But it depends on a lot.  A good Ichorid player can beat 2 crypts.  They just have to slow roll you.  Assuming your opponent knows Ichorid, Even with a land drop next turn, followed by a turn 3 recall, and a turn 4 DT - you better be DTing for something game breaking.  I give this hand about a 60% chance to win if you get your land off the top + land in recall.  And about a 30% chance of winning given everything you could draw, wieghed against what your opponent could draw (assuming they don't overcommit).

As DA said, considering what else you boarded in.  Do you have 4 Tcrypts, 3? 2 crypts 2 jailors?  2 crypts, 3 relics?  You're really wieghing the certainty of pulling this game out AND winning next game.  What can your deck do with 5-er?  Post board are you looking to hate out Ichorid or do you leave in enough to race it? Do you have Twister? etc. 

Look at where you are: You're down one game, and you've drawn 2 bad hands so far in game.  This match is circling the drain.  This mediocre hand does not include the sauce you need to resessitate the match.

So Like I said, I'd probably roll the dice and see if lady luck gives me a better 5er.  Its not like I'm gambling much here, I'm putting up my dead horse against a shot at winning a stallion.  (assuming your deck does has some sort of vintage hope of getting a "god 5 hand.")

I 100% agree with DA on the Leylines.  Double Leyline force backer even without a land is definately a good hand. 

[forests failed you]

I would absolutely keep.  Here is why:  It is very likely that going down to five isn't going to help you anymore than the hand of six you already have.  At the very least, you are going to need a bare minimum of one hate card in the five card hand in order to even stand a chance of winning the game. 

Basically, in a mulligan to five you are pretty much all in on trying to get at least one of the following cards:

Leyline of the Void
Tormod's Crypt

or,
Mana +

Pithing Needle
Ancestral Recall
Yixlid Jailer
Vault/Key and a Tutor

The good news about the hand of six is that you have two Tormod's Crypt which should buy us AT LEAST two draw steps to try and find a mana, and a Force of Will to protect us from one of their Pithing Needles hitting play on the first turn.  Also, if they do attempt to hit us with a Pithing Needle on the first turn, it means they will not be playing a Bazaar on the first turn which will likely give us an additional draw step to hit our land.  The absolute worst case scenario is that they are able to get a land into play that makes black mana and they cast Cabal Therapy the hard way on the first turn and then land a Pithing Needle on the second turn. 

Under M10 rules we will also get to see whether or not the Ichorid player dropped to six before we decide whether to keep our hand of six.  (They would have to mulligan their seven when we mulligan our seven).  Even if they keep their seven, I still think we want our six because pretty much any hand with a Bazaar of Baghdad is going to be a keeper.  However, if they are going below seven it gets even more likely that they will have the Therapy, Needle, Bazaar, Black Mana draw that is going to punish our no-lander.  If they kept their hand of seven, I think it makes our 2x Crypt hand a no-brainer keep because it is very likely they are going to have a Bazaar--which means that they will goldfish very quickly (much more quickly than our five carder) if we don't have anything to slow them down.

In addition to Force of Will, we also have Mystical Tutor, which will allow us to grab a Recall as soon as we hit a Blue Mana source and will most likely get our engine going and catch us up if we don't hit land immediately.

There are some pretty obvious weaknesses and risks involved with keeping a no-land hand.  But, given that we have already mulliganed once, and that we have two pieces of sideboard technology, and a Force of Will to stop their Needle I would say that it is very likely that things are only going to get worse if we ship it back.  There are certainly better five card hands that we could mulligan into, but there are a multiplicity of worse hands that we are much more likely to get; specifically hands that don't have Tormod's Crypt or Leyline to buy us time right off the bat.  With a mulliganed hand we already know that we are going to need more time than usual to hit critical mass, since we are starting down a card--and against a deck trying to goldfish this puts us at an extreme disadvantage.  This is why having two Crypts to buy us extra time is going to become even more important.

[Shock Wave]

I would absolutely keep.  Here is why:  It is very likely that going down to five isn't going to help you anymore than the hand of six you already have.  At the very least, you are going to need a bare minimum of one hate card in the five card hand in order to even stand a chance of winning the game. 

Basically, in a mulligan to five you are pretty much all in on trying to get at least one of the following cards:

Leyline of the Void
Tormod's Crypt

or,
Mana +

Pithing Needle
Ancestral Recall
Yixlid Jailer
Vault/Key and a Tutor

The good news about the hand of six is that you have two Tormod's Crypt which should buy us AT LEAST two draw steps to try and find a mana, and a Force of Will to protect us from one of their Pithing Needles hitting play on the first turn.  Also, if they do attempt to hit us with a Pithing Needle on the first turn, it means they will not be playing a Bazaar on the first turn which will likely give us an additional draw step to hit our land.  The absolute worst case scenario is that they are able to get a land into play that makes black mana and they cast Cabal Therapy the hard way on the first turn and then land a Pithing Needle on the second turn. 

Under M10 rules we will also get to see whether or not the Ichorid player dropped to six before we decide whether to keep our hand of six.  (They would have to mulligan their seven when we mulligan our seven).  Even if they keep their seven, I still think we want our six because pretty much any hand with a Bazaar of Baghdad is going to be a keeper.  However, if they are going below seven it gets even more likely that they will have the Therapy, Needle, Bazaar, Black Mana draw that is going to punish our no-lander.  If they kept their hand of seven, I think it makes our 2x Crypt hand a no-brainer keep because it is very likely they are going to have a Bazaar--which means that they will goldfish very quickly (much more quickly than our five carder) if we don't have anything to slow them down.

In addition to Force of Will, we also have Mystical Tutor, which will allow us to grab a Recall as soon as we hit a Blue Mana source and will most likely get our engine going and catch us up if we don't hit land immediately.

There are some pretty obvious weaknesses and risks involved with keeping a no-land hand.  But, given that we have already mulliganed once, and that we have two pieces of sideboard technology, and a Force of Will to stop their Needle I would say that it is very likely that things are only going to get worse if we ship it back.  There are certainly better five card hands that we could mulligan into, but there are a multiplicity of worse hands that we are much more likely to get; specifically hands that don't have Tormod's Crypt or Leyline to buy us time right off the bat.  With a mulliganed hand we already know that we are going to need more time than usual to hit critical mass, since we are starting down a card--and against a deck trying to goldfish this puts us at an extreme disadvantage.  This is why having two Crypts to buy us extra time is going to become even more important.

I was going to post but Brian captured everything I was going to say in his response above. I think it is very wrong to send this hand back.

[Grand Inquisitor]

FFY's got most of it, but I want to add emphasis here:

we also have Mystical Tutor, which will allow us to grab a Recall as soon as we hit a Blue Mana source

When Dredge wasn't a serious consideration in my metagame, I never bothered testing full matchups with it.  I just assumed I understood how post-board matches against it would work out and to have a threshold of useful cards against them.

It was actually Meatbert who really got me to think differently about the matchup.  Post board is much less about trying to control the ichorid player as it is executing your own game plan at the same time as disrupting them.  I don't adopt his (in my opinion extreme) position that you side out FoW because it's too much card disadvantage, but I do think about the postboard games as much more of an attrition war.

Given the hand in this example, I'll assume the context is some vault/key list where it's likely that if you have a speed bump like a crypt or needle, you can likely race with your own combo.  That's why for me the real reason to keep here is that there's a powerful one-drop (Mystical Tutor) that enables you to start executing your game plan as soon as you find an island.

If, for example, the hand were: FoW, 2x Crypt, DT, 2x blue cards with cc >1, I'd have to consider the mulligan option more seriously.

[Smmenen]

If the Crypts were Leyline, I would not hesitate to keep.   

Multiples Leylines + Force of Will should be enough to stall for long enough find more protection for the Leylines to win the game.   The game at that point would become them playing 1/1s and trying to beatdown with Narcomoebas and the like.

As it is, I do not have enough information to answer the question posed.   The answer depends, in part, on the amount of anti-Ichorid sideboard hate I've brought in.   If Crypt is the only stuff I have, I would probably keep that hand.   

But if I was running Jailers or Pithing Needles, as I am want to do if I don't run Leylines, I would not keep that hand.

With 24 mana sources, and only 15 lands (assuming you don't run LoA), that's really only 15 stable sources of blue mana (unless you count Academy).   Assuming no LoA, but that you count Academy, your chances of drawing one is roughly 30% on turn one, 31% on turn 2, and  31.3% on turn 3.   It's simply not high enough.    There is a real chance you won't see a land until turn four or so, by which point things will have spiraled quickly out of control, even with two Tormod's Crypts.   It's not that you can't draw something good, it's that the chances of developing your game plan to the point where you have a shot aren't high enough.   It takes more than one land to do anything in most cases. 

[Demonic Attorney]

I know this is posted out of numerical order, but we're working on another Q & A subject a little more before posting the answers.

[vroman]

I think an ichorid player would be very happy you kept that hand. They have more inevitability. if they are running needle/null rod on top of therapy/unmask, its likely they could answer that turn 1-2 and proceed to win somewhere around turn 3-5.

[Shock Wave]

I think an ichorid player would be very happy you kept that hand. They have more inevitability. if they are running needle/null rod on top of therapy/unmask, its likely they could answer that turn 1-2 and proceed to win somewhere around turn 3-5.

They actually may be very happy that you kept that hand, but I bet they would be even happier if you mulled to fewer cards. The right question to ask is: What 5 card hands are better than this 6 card hand, and what is cumulative probability of drawing one of those 5 card hands?