Right now, in the current Vintage meta, is Tinker a more powerful spell than Yawgmoth's Will? I'm not talking in an abstract, theoretical way. I'm talking about, right now-today, given the current tournament data that has been compiled both here and at Morphling, is Tinker having a more dynamic impact on the meta than Yawgmoth's Will? Why or why not?
This is a deceptively difficult question. Recent changes have, in my opinion, made both cards less powerful.
TinkerTinker is weaker than it used to be for two reasons. First, the availability of Vault/Key means there's a very real chance that your opponent will win the game before your Tinker -> Monster gets there. Also, after resolving a Tinker, don't forget that you're technically down a card; that might not mean much, but it gives your opponent at least a little more of a theoretical head start to assemble infinite turns before it's too late. Vault/Key is cheaper, quicker, and more powerful than any other combo-finish win condition I can remember. When my opponents had to rely on Gifts Ungiven, Mindslaver, or Psychatog to win during earlier Vintage epochs, I was much less worried about my opponent combo'ing off and killing me in the 2-3 turns before my huge creature won me the game.
Second, the metagame has shifted such that many players are running more "answer" cards than they have for a while. Tezzeret lists, at least in the Northeast, run multiple bounce spells, Fish in the Midwest packs answers to Tinker creatures, and so on. We've moved away from the days where a blue control list might run one token Echoing Truth for insurance purposes. So there's more of a risk of your creature getting removed, which is often catastrophic. As a side note, one of the most powerful cards to run alongside Tinker, Mindslaver, has all but disappeared from the format, making Tinker's potential applications significantly narrower.
Honestly, I haven't even seen more than a couple of isolated examples of players even bothering to try to "get there" with an early Tinker anymore, where as a few years ago it was a very common play. At the last tournament I played in, my opponent Tinkered out a Sundering Titan on turn 3 and destroyed my lands; I won through Vault/Key on the next turn anyway.
WillYawgmoth's Will's power waxes and wanes along with the power of the other spells in your deck. During the Gush era, a resolved Will after turn 3 was almost-guaranteed win. Even in the days of Slaver and Gifts, there were plenty of powerful, cheap cantrips and other draw spells that you could use to quickly stack your graveyard, assemble defenses to ensure Will resolved, and then generate an enormous advantage by recurring all your spells at once.
Today, the cheap cantrips are all gone. Because spells are for the most part slower and most costly, Will becomes slower and weaker.
Now, I'll add a caveat that Will in Ritual-based combo is in a very different situation. There, it's almost as powerful as ever, and if a combo player gets Will through against you, that situation is about as dire as it's ever been. That's because combo still has access to cheap quality spells and fast mana in a way that blue-based control doesn't anymore.
Which is betterWhile both cards have gotten weaker, I'd say Tinker has been reduced to a shadow of its former self while Will is still a potent card. Generally speaking, in the olden days Tinker was your broken endgame play in the early game, and Will was your broken endgame play in the late game. Getting either spell through in the appropriate time frame virtually ensured victory.
Today, I basically only see Tinker used as a 3-mana tutor for one of the Vault/Key pieces, unless it's being used against Fish. Being used as a stand-in for half the Vault/Key combo is nice, but it doesn't influence the Vintage metagame and it doesn't make Tinker a card that players fear they way they used to. Even against Fish, Tinker does less than it used to. Against Gay/r, Tinkering a DSC was game over. Now, Fish decks have access to more resources, run more powerful cards, and come prepared for Tinker. Most significantly, their draw engines are often comparable to blue control, which has never before been true in the history of the format. This means they're able to find and use removal for Tinker -> Creature as quickly as a blue control player can dig for protection.
On the other hand, Will is still good for doubling the effects generated by every card you've played in the game so far. That effect is as devastating as ever. While you won't be able to stock your graveyard with multiples of Thirst, Brainstorm, Gush, and Merchant Scroll the way you used to, the hodgepodge of draw spells and Duresses left in the format is enough to make Will powerful enough to solidify an advantage for one player or swing the game in another's favor.
In short, Will is still a functional win condition, but Tinker's power has slipped to the point where, on its own, I don't think it's as strong.
