Prohibit in Vintage

[Killane]

I have been pondering the possible utility of this golden oldie in the current Vintage:


Prohibit (Invasion common)

1U

Kicker 2

Counter target spell if its CMC is 2 or less. If kicked, counter target spell if the CMC is 4 or less.


Spell Snare is a powerful counterspell in Legacy right now, but much of its power is derived form the Tempo boost as you are countering a CMC 2 spell with a CMC 1 spell. In Vintage, it is less effective as there are huge numbers of spells that want to be countered at CMC 1 (Ancestral, Vampiric Tutor, Duress, Thoughtseize, Voltaic Key, Goblin Welder, Crop Rotation, etc...), and CMC 3 and 4 (Spheres, Crucible, Gifts Ungiven, etc...), and even at CMC 0 or variable (Chalice, sometimes Lotus). However, it is possible to get 2 up much more quickly in vintage, and 4 is not that unreasonable for a hard counter, especially considering that anything you are countering at CMC 3 or 4 is likely a "I need to counter this or I'm going to loose" sort of effect.

Negate has been seeing allot of play until mostly supplanted by Spell Pierce of late. However Prohibit is much more flexible, is a hard counter, and misses very few cards in the current Meta (although it does miss Tezz, by the time Tezz comes down I question how often Pierce is going to do the job either).

The question is a matter of what lists this fits in. I was fairly happy with Mana Leak in Oath, but I do like Pierce better. However more and more of late, I've found issues with Pierce being good enough. Dark Confidant is an absurdly powerful draw engine, and Tarmogoyf's can be difficult to race if Oath is not already on the table, as they can get very big. Some of the nastiest cards to deal with  are one drops (Duress, I'm looking at you), and it's not uncommon for the opponent to just have the 2 extra mana to push it through. This is a more difficult spell to use on the offense to protect a threat (the fact that it doesn't hit FoW at all may at the end of the day be the death knell for it in offensive builds like Iona Oath), but is more flexible in what it can counter defensively.

This seems like a strong spell for vintage, but is it good enough and does it have a home? My relevant Vintage experience (ie having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the format to matter in any way) is almost exclusively as an Oath pilot. What do people think?

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

On comparison versus Spell Pierce: Without getting into too much detail, 1 mana is a huge difference.  It's not just that costing 1 less mana makes Spell Pierce better because it is easier to cast; it's that 1cc fills a different spot in the mana curve of the deck, so I don't think a straight up comparison of one versus the other is useful since they should not compete for the same slot.

Versus 2cc spells.  I don't think that the ability to counter creatures makes this better than Negate, simply because Negate is a hard counter for 80%+ of spells in the format.  You say paying 4 mana for Prohibit isn't horrible; I disagree: it is actually VERY bad.  Even if we leave out FOW, which is a big deal, how are you supposed to counter Smokestack/Wire/Crucible early in the game, when Stacks is trying to lock you up?  In short, there are many more 2cc+spells than creature spells that you are worried about.  I would rather run Mana Leak than Prohibit, since even though it is conditional it can at least counter all spells in the early game.

[JR]

Prohibit was run in heavy control decks for two reasons: There wasn't much better at the time, and it was a counterspell that didn't cost two blue to help you win a counter war late in the game. I feel that there are much better options for both of these roles at this point.

[TracerBullet]

I have been pondering the possible utility of this golden oldie in the current Vintage:


Prohibit (Invasion common)

1U

Kicker 2

Counter target spell if its CMC is 2 or less. If kicked, counter target spell if the CMC is 4 or less.


Spell Snare is a powerful counterspell in Legacy right now, but much of its power is derived form the Tempo boost as you are countering a CMC 2 spell with a CMC 1 spell. In Vintage, it is less effective as there are huge numbers of spells that want to be countered at CMC 1 (Ancestral, Vampiric Tutor, Duress, Thoughtseize, Voltaic Key, Goblin Welder, Crop Rotation, etc...), and CMC 3 and 4 (Spheres, Crucible, Gifts Ungiven, etc...), and even at CMC 0 or variable (Chalice, sometimes Lotus). However, it is possible to get 2 up much more quickly in vintage, and 4 is not that unreasonable for a hard counter, especially considering that anything you are countering at CMC 3 or 4 is likely a "I need to counter this or I'm going to loose" sort of effect.

Negate has been seeing allot of play until mostly supplanted by Spell Pierce of late. However Prohibit is much more flexible, is a hard counter, and misses very few cards in the current Meta (although it does miss Tezz, by the time Tezz comes down I question how often Pierce is going to do the job either).

The question is a matter of what lists this fits in. I was fairly happy with Mana Leak in Oath, but I do like Pierce better. However more and more of late, I've found issues with Pierce being good enough. Dark Confidant is an absurdly powerful draw engine, and Tarmogoyf's can be difficult to race if Oath is not already on the table, as they can get very big. Some of the nastiest cards to deal with  are one drops (Duress, I'm looking at you), and it's not uncommon for the opponent to just have the 2 extra mana to push it through. This is a more difficult spell to use on the offense to protect a threat (the fact that it doesn't hit FoW at all may at the end of the day be the death knell for it in offensive builds like Iona Oath), but is more flexible in what it can counter defensively.

This seems like a strong spell for vintage, but is it good enough and does it have a home? My relevant Vintage experience (ie having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the format to matter in any way) is almost exclusively as an Oath pilot. What do people think?

I think it would be exceptionally good in Brown Paper Bag.  Perhaps even format breaking.

[Killane]

Yeah, not sure what I was thinking with this analysis.
I need to stop writing long posts at work without enought time to read them over and catch the glaring stupidity (paying 4 mana to counter Trinisphere, REALLY I actually considered that as a realistic enough eventuality to use it as a reason to play a suboptimal counterspell??!?!)

Anyways thanks everyone for pointing out the glaringly obvious flaws in this analysis.

Going back to posting about real ideas only now.

Peace.

[SadDubs]

lets not murder this possibility just yet. It could work in landstill. Seeing as that deck has the most trouble with aggro, prohibit could be a good early creature counter. In the late game, when landstill has like 5 mana up, this card gets much better. The card does seem a jank, but it still has a bit of potential. The only problem with it is its 2cc.

[Killane]

lets not murder this possibility just yet. It could work in landstill. Seeing as that deck has the most trouble with aggro, prohibit could be a good early creature counter. In the late game, when landstill has like 5 mana up, this card gets much better. The card does seem a jank, but it still has a bit of potential. The only problem with it is its 2cc.

The thing is, if you are having issues with those early creatures, what are they?

Goyf?
Confidant?
Pridemage?
Meddling Mage?

Spell Snare hits all of these, and does so for CMC 1.

Selkie? - costs 3, you would need to kick Prohibit to counter it, they have Hierarch and a good excellent chance of getting to 3 before you get to four

Heirarch? they will almost certainly have 1 before you have 2, and after turn 1 there are other things you will need to counter.

This was not a good idea. I wish it was, but it it wasn't.