Vintage Adept Q&A #9: Calculated Risk

[Demonic Attorney]

1. When playing against Drains, is it better to bait a counter with a less powerful spell or a spell with a lower CMC?  (Ex. - Your opponent only has three available mana.  After Duressing them, you know they're holding Mana Drain and Mystical Tutor.  Do you lead with TfK or Recall?  Or how about Confidant versus Gifts?  Do you just pass the turn?)

[TheBrassMan]

(are we supposed to be answering here, or discussing the question?)

Decent question, but it really needs a lot more information to get accurate answers, how much mana you have is huge, how much time you think you have left in the game, and what your chances of drawing an artifact with thirst are, nevermind the "which is actually the bait spell" when comparing ancestral and bob, depending on the matchup.

[Demonic Attorney]

Brassman,

You're right that the question requires more information.  What I typically do is fill in the missing information to construct some common hypothetical scenarios that players might benefit from reading about.  But that's just my approach.

So on that note, the first piece of relevant information I use is:  How many cards are in my opponent's hand?  If I'm worried about walking into Mana Drain but I still want to take the chance, the first thing I look at is the number of cards in my opponent's hand.  If they have, say, 6 in hand, the odds are pretty good that they have something to leverage the drain mana I'm going to give them.  On the other hand, if they only have 2 in hand, that's a much smaller risk.

Once I've figured out the rough likelihood of whether their Mana Drain is going to accelerate their offense or just function as a de facto Counterspell, the next thing I think about is whether I'm going to be able to handle the loss that comes from getting one of my spells Mana Drained.  This is where the concerns Brassman mentioned start to come into play for me.

If I'm way behind and my opponent is sending signals that they're about to go for the kill anyway (like playing Moxes without immediately using them while holding several cards in hand, looking over at their graveyard, etc.) and I don't think I'll be able to stop them, then I might as well go for it and walk into Drain.  I'll bait with my less-powerful spell because the extra mana won't affect how my opponent's next turn is going to play out; they're already in a position to make offensive plays I can't deal with so I'm just going all-in on a desperate gambit at my last opportunity.  This goes to the "how much time you think you have left in the game" consideration he mentioned.

If my opponent looks like they're going to be making an offensive push that I think I can stop, I'll run out a low-cost threat at their EOT just to draw a counterspell to better position myself for the counterwar over their threat.  Playing a high-cost threat creates the risk of giving the opponent more mana to use in the upcoming struggle, and through that, maybe the ability to use an extra counter to force their offensive spell through.  Here, the "bait" spell doesn't function to open the way for an offensive move on my turn, but to sap my opponent's control resources to maximize my chances of stopping them with my own counters.  This goes to the "how much mana you have" although in this scenario it's more about "how much mana your opponent has."

But let's look at it from the other perspective.  Suppose it's me who wants to make a big offensive play.  Now many of the principles Brassman talked about become relevant, all at once.  The first question is:  Do I want short-term or long-term gains?  If I'm just trying to gain position against my opponent, expecting the game to go longer, I'd bait with spells and try to get permanents onto the board.  This could mean baiting with TFK and playing Bob, baiting with Mystical and playing Welder, or any different kind of tradeoff.  But remember: also relevant is the swing you expect walking into Mana Drain will create.  Getting Bob onto the table won't matter if you're putting your opponent in range of being able to drop Tezzeret with Drain backup on their next turn.

Once that information is sorted out, the next thing is how the play you want to make fits into the mana you have available.  It won't do any good to bait with TFK if you won't have the mana to play Tinker, or if doing so would take you off Drain mana that you expect you'll need on your opponent's next turn.  

As for comparisons of particular cards to "bait" with, I share Brassman's view that that's hopelessly context-dependent.  What deck are you playing?  What deck is your opponent playing?  What is the gamestate like (implicating all the considerations addressed above)?  Is it pre- or post-SB?  Do you expect your opponent will have SB answers for one spell vs. another?  There's just not enough to go on, but I hope the general considerations I outlined above will help you approach individual questions as you encounter them.    

[forests failed you]

The problem with the question is that there is no context available to actually say which of two plays would be preferable.  Is it turn two and I have three mana in play, or is it turn 10 and I have 8 Mana in play and the only two cards left in my hand are Thirst and Ancestral and the only two in his after the Duress are Mystical and Drain?

In the first scenerio tempo is the most important thing:  If I have Thirst For Knowledge and Ancestral Recall as options on two a pretty basic line of play is to just pass the turn and cast Thirst on their end step and then try to Ancestral  on my next main phase.  There are lots of advantages to this:  First, if he taps out for a bomb I can Thirst if I don't have a counter and try to find a Force.  If he counters the Thirst I will be able to Ancestral on my next mainphase BEFORE he gets Mana from the Drain, and possibly be able to cast another good spell while he is tapped out, or find a counterspell to stop whatever he Mystical Tutors for. 

In the second scenerio card advantage and winning is important:  you bait with the Thirst and see if he counters, then resolve Ancestral Recall and try to win the game before he gets to Mystical with Drain mana.

In any scenerio in between these two extremes something is going to be the most important thing that you and your opponent are trying to do at that moment, and it is your job to figure out what the important thing is.  Is it tempo?  Is it resources on the board?  Is it card advantage?  Or, is it the possibility that somebody has the resources to actually win the game now?  Once you have figured out what is important you design the play that gives you the best chance of getting the better end out of the deal.

[Harlequin]

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Echoing what others have said, evaluating this play in the lategame is one of those skill tests that separate great drain players from good drain players.  And an almost immeasurable amount of factors would go into the decision.   

So I'll focus my answer on a contrived early game example of this.

- Your opponent did first turn land-Mox-> Confidant, which you fought a small counter war over an won. Turn 1 ended.
- You played Land -> duress, and took some massive bomb.  Seeing no 2nd land drop, Mana Drain, Mystical.
- Your opponent draws, and plays a 2nd land (what they drew) and passes.  Their board is Land, Land, off color mox all untapped.  Their hand is known to be Drain, Mystical.
- Your turn begins your hand is: 2nd Land, Mox, Thirst.  You draw and its recall. Your board is a land.

-- At this point, you have a few lines of play ... many of which might be bad.
- Recall Right now, and walk it into the drain, potentially feigning the need to make a land drop.  This puts you down some cards, but potentially up a land drop.  Your opponent will now have UU1 + 1 + a random card.  or U1 + 1 + a card they mystical for.  Which is just enough for Tinker OR yawg.  Both of these plays are probably going to result in a loss.  So walking your mainphase recall into a drain is probably a bad play.  Also note that you will only have 2 cards in hand, without UU open if you do this - so your opponent might play risky hoping you don’t have Force+blue in hand.  This would be a risk that would pay off for them.

- Play Land, Mox, and Thirst right now.  
Assuming they swing at the meatball - This will put them on UU1 + 3 next turn, or U1 + 3 if they mystical.  This is probably even worse than above.  Because now they can mystical for Gifts or FoF.  Which will at least negate your recall advantage next turn, if not win them the game straight up right now.  Remember an Early Yawg is still perfectly viable depending on what you duressed back on your turn 1.

- Pass the turn with either Land, Land (mox, thirst, recall) or Land, Land, Mox (thirst, recall)

In either case you are really playing chicken with them.  You want them to mystical.  You know they don't have a 3rd land drop so unless they mystical for Pact of Negation they won't be able to play the card they mystical for AND back it with drain.  

The game right now isn't about winning or losing, its about who can make a 3rd land drop.  Our best chance of making our land drop next turn is going to rely on resolving recall.

The question is, do you keep the Mox in hand or not.  If you keep the mox in hand, your only castable card is Recall.  But if you play the Mox down, you will likely have to discard 2 of the 3 cards you draw... Unless it gets drained.

For now let’s assume you play the mox down, and go with Land, Land, Mox in play untapped with castable recall or Thirst in hand.  We can't cast both.

Now let’s explore our opponent's lines of play, and what we do to capitalize on them:

- Our opponent get's antsy and casts their mystical in our end-step.  Going to U1 open, drain in hand, with mystical on the stack.
-- Bluffing at this point is for the birds, we alpha strike with an uncounterable Recall.  Mission accomplished.  If they do this, they are almost certainly going to find recall to get their 3rd land drop.  Wich will put us 1 card up on them, because they lose a draw via the topdeck tutor (assuming we draw dead on Forces in our 3 cards).  Slightly weaker on their part is to say "screw it" and put all their chips on the table, finding Tinker.  Now you are 4 cards up on them... and robot shouldn't be too hard to beat knowing everything you do next turn (like Thirst) is uncounterable (assuming they cast tinker).

~ If your opponent greedily goes for Mystical despite taking themself off drain with no 3rd land drop, they are fool.  You probably end up on top by burying them in card advantage.

- They do nothing, and draw for turn - Fishing for a land drop.  

This is likely what will happen.  And what you do is totally dependent on if they rip a land off the top, and actually gets down to the detail of if they leave a fetch open or not... but let’s evaluate what happens.

-- If they either draw and say "Go", or draw play a land and say "Go" we get to make a very cool play.

The play is to cast Thirst during their combat step.  The reason is basically the same, but the point is to have them Not want to "waste" their drain mana.  

In the case where they drew a land, after draining the mid-combat thirst thier hand is only Mystical - thus the drain mana is wasted.

In the case where the drew a nonland, after draining the mid-combat thirst their board is only an untapped mox.  Barring their draw being a non-mox artifact, the drain mana will also go unspent as even if they drew FoF or Gifts, they won't have a 3rd blue mana. (they can't draw both blue mana and a bomb in one draw).

There is one other "balls-y" play we can make if they do the following...

-- They draw, play a fetch land, and thus have 2 non-fetchlands and a fetchland in play (with their mox) and say Go.  (hand being Drain, Mystical)

This is the only scenario where we can opt to do nothing and hope they make a mistake.  We go to our turn, draw, and say go.  If we draw a land here, our line of play doesn't change just play the land and say go.

If they play mystical tutor without cracking their fetch first, we can capitalize on this by playing our Recall after Mystical resolves in our End Step.  Now they have to choose between fetching away their Mystical Card - OR - countering our Recall.  Either way we end up on top of the card advantage war.  Because if they do fetch, they will have no hand + 1 mystery draw.  vrs our 3 mana + Thirst + mystery card x2 when we untap.  If they opt not to drain we still have our thirst, +4 mystery cards.  vrs their Drain + Instant/Sorcery they tutored for.

Again to make this play, we have to assume that they are going to "play sloppy" and forget to fetch before playing their top-deck tutor.  A common enough mistake, especially for an unseasoned drain player.


Hopefully after all that, every detail about the game - even the difference between a fetch land and a dual can change your line of play dramatically.  Changing parameters around slightly will change my choices here as well.  This is but a sliver in the Giant Redwood of possible scenareos.
But hopefully, this sort of stream of consciousness type of response helps the reader "think like a drain player."

[Rico Suave]

In that situation, I would opt to keep Mox/TFK/Ancestral in hand. 

While playing the Mox will let you cast the TFK, which can possibly eat Drain and set up Ancestral the next turn, the problem is that your opponent might simply decide not to Drain the TFK.  Consider that you played an artifact from your hand and you only have 1 card left in your hand.  A wise player will recognize that TFK could very well just whiff right here.  Why would they need to Drain, especially considering they know they won't get the mana from it?  It is one of those situations where the TFK is almost painfully obvious to be bait. 

If you *do* end up discarding 2 cards to that TFK, you have gained no advantage, and you still haven't gotten them to bite on the Drain (meaning your Ancestral is not a safe play yet).  In effect you are almost digging yourself a hole. 

I think waiting is the best option here.  You say "you are really playing chicken with them" while I oftentimes say "the person who blinks first will lose" but they are basically the same thing.  If they cast Mystical you can Ancestral and gain an incredible advantage, but suppose they don't blink and Mystical.  Suppose they don't blink at your TFK either.  They may be taking a gamble, but it's quite possible that *you* would be the one who is losing the game of chicken by casting that TFK. 

I would wait, and use my next turn's draw to judge the best course of action.  If you draw any mana source at all, now your TFK (even though it is bait) becomes lethal because you held that Mox.  There are actually a variety of spells you can draw here that will give you a great position (Brainstorm, Force, even a random Vault/Key or Mystical/Vamp of your own).  Either way, I think the point is you have time to wait - especially if you are bluffing UU with 3 cards in hand.

[Grand Inquisitor]

"the person who blinks first will lose" but they are basically the same thing.  If they cast Mystical you can Ancestral and gain an incredible advantage, but suppose they don't blink and Mystical.  Suppose they don't blink at your TFK either.  They may be taking a gamble, but it's quite possible that *you* would be the one who is losing the game of chicken by casting that TFK.

2nd'd, well put.

[Harlequin]

In retropect I would say that wauting with mox in hand is probably the best play, for the reason you outlined.  My goal in creating the example was to showcase an opportunity to outplay someone through subtle easily missed played.

Just goes to show how complex drain v drain hypotheticals can get...