Why is shop aggro only tier 3?

[SadDubs]

When I look at workshop aggro, (I've never actually had the chance to test it out), it seems to be a really great deck. It has bigger and faster creatures than fish/hate, it runs lots of mana denial and sphere effects vs combo, and you can run spells like magus of the moon, null rod, and chalice to disrupt tezzeret. This seems like an extremely well balanced and fast deck, yet it remains one of the weaker archetypes of type 1. How is this possible? A big argument against shop aggro is that once you drop your lock pieces they can be hurykl's recalled or rebuilded away, but you can say the same thing for stax, yet stax is one of the best decks right now. I currently think shop aggro is or can be one of the best archetypes around, prove me wrong.

[Smmenen]

Qasali Pridemage is a big reason, but not the only one.   Goyf is another.   

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

The most obvious reasons are probably Tinker and Oath of Druids.  Shop aggro has a hard time stopping either of these cards from resolving and will usually lose to Sphinx or Hellkites.  Conversely, if Stax can stall enough (which pretty much every lock in the deck does), Smokestack can deal with everything.  

Shop Aggro is also weaker than Stax against artifact hate, because it does not have the strategic solution against hate of simply locking out the opponent like Stax does, nor can it run Goblin Welder to recur destroyed or countered artifacts (Welder is actually bad in Shop aggro because does not have the same synergy as it does in Stax).

The other problems Shop Aggro has is threat density and mana curve.  There are only really 2 good efficient artifact beaters at 4 mana: Juggernaut and Su-Chi (Wirecat is another option but weak against Oath for obvious reasons, and makes Seal of Cleansing/Primordium really hurt you).  The others all cost 5 mana or more and make you very reliant on Workshop, especially when combined with your own Spheres.  You really need at least 12 creatures to have a good clock and play through removal/counters.  Plus you have to rely on drawing the right mix of creature and disruption, and without a draw engine you are often at the mercy of topdecks.

Anyway I think if you test it these issues will become apparent quite quickly.

That said, if I had to run Shop Aggro here is what I would run:

// Lands
    4  Ancient Tomb
    1  City of Traitors
    4  Mishra's Factory (4)
    4  Mishra's Workshop
    1  Strip Mine
    1  Tolarian Academy
    4  Wasteland

// Creatures
    4  Juggernaut
    4  Su-Chi
    2  Wicker Warcrawler
    2  Wirecat

// Spells
    1  Black Lotus
    4  Chalice of the Void
    1  Mana Crypt
    1  Mox Emerald
    1  Mox Jet
    1  Mox Pearl
    1  Mox Ruby
    1  Mox Sapphire
    4  Null Rod
    4  Sculpting Steel
    1  Sol Ring
    4  Sphere of Resistance
    4  Thorn of Amethyst
    1  Trinisphere

The deck has heavy disruption (most importantly Null Rod) and a decent clock.  Being Mono-Brown fixes your mana issues and lets you run Ancient Tomb and Mishra's Factory.  Ancient Tomb lessens your reliance on Workshop, while Factory helps improve your clock.  Sculpting Steel acts either as an additional creature or an additional Sphere.  

I am not saying this is a good deck, just that I think it is the best direction to take Shop Aggro if you had to run it in today's metagame.  None of the builds I have seen have a good enough clock or can support Rod.

The deck, as I have already noted, is particularly weak against Oath of Druids.  Furthermore, artifact hate post-board is a nightmare.  Stuff like Energy Flux, Rack and Ruin, etc, are devastating.

[RecklessEmbermage]

Has serum powder ever been considered in shop aggro?

It would help find shops and could take away the need for playing some of the sub-par creatures.

[Red Irish]

@Gandalf: I think the deck you list is best described as aggro MUD rather than Shop Aggro. The OP is interested in the aggro shop decks that do run welder as he clearly stated that they often include Magus of the Moon, so I think we are discussing the decks that appeared in response to GAT (i.e. Solemn Simulacrum, Triskelion, Welder, spheres...). That said, I agree with many of the points you make.

Mono-red Shop Aggro has lost a great deal of steam for a number of reasons:

1) As Gandalf points out, Oath is perhaps the biggest problem. Iona has encouraged many players to dust off their Oath decks. Iona is not particularly good against Aggro Shop decks, unless Oath is activated early on in the game, but she can win nevertheless. The problem with Oath arises post sideboard, when you are faced with Empyrial Archangel or Sphinx. Smokestack, should you choose to run it, often isn't quick enough to deal with these threats.

2) The appearance of Sphinx and Inkwell Leviathan, which cannot be targetted by Welder, have forced Shop players to include Sculpting Steel. Sculpting Steel is a good response to each of these cards, but without tutors, an early game Tinker often spells imminent defeat and Welder is no longer an answer.

3) As Smmenen points out, Pridemage can ruin your day.

4) The rise of Tezzeret and decks employing the Time Vault combo have forced Shop players to include Null Rod. Null Rod is undoubtedly the best artifact disruption in the current metagame; however, for Shop players, it comes at a high price and it can often hurt you as much as the opponent. The Shop decks require tweaking to include Null Rod and you can no longer run Triskelion. In any event, subsequent to the changes in combat, Triskelion is no longer a solution to Goyf and should probably be replaced by Razormane Masticore, but we can no longer weld Triskelion in and out of play to deal those final points of damage that make the difference between winning and losing.

5) Tezzeret players run enough islands to counteract any disruption caused by Magus of the Moon and Oath players often run a single forest for the same purpose.

6) Many Tezzeret/Oath decks include Tendrils as a second win condition, which means more Rebuild/Hurkyll's in the main deck. You can respond to this by including Red Elemental Blast in the Sideboard, but it often isn't enough.

Much to my regret, recent expansions have not given the Aggro Shop player many useable cards. The converse is true of the decks you are competing against and despite my best attempts to create a build that works, I think you have to strain too much to create a competitive Aggro Shop deck. Aggro Shop decks will continue to make top 8, but not as often as they did when we were facing GAT. Recent modifications to the rules (i.e. the reappearance of Time Vault and the increased use of Null Rod) have not helped matters. Hopefully, things will change when Worldwake appears, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

  

[SadDubs]

After testing both brown and red workshop aggro, I have concluded that it is horrible. Spheres, while being nice disruption early game, eventually lose power once I enter top deck mode. There is virtually zero card advantage in the deck, which is just terrible to see. As stated before, null rod hurts me just as much as my opponent, and because of this I am often mana screwed under my own spheres. It just takes too long for shop aggro to mobilize a strong lock and THEN beatdown with a 5/5. welder was bad for both my own deck and against other not stax decks. Although, magus was pretty good to me as an early game bomb, but as time prgressed the opponent killed him and then just went off. Yup, the deck is pretty weak without card advantage or better cards. The mono brown version did prove to be much better in testing, but it still ran into similar problems with card advantage and lack of more powerful lock elements. Thank you all for your comments.

[Mantis]

The notion that Qasali Pridemage is somehow the reason for Shop Aggro's abmysal perfomance actually kind of puzzles me, especially now that damage on the stack is gone. It's just a 1 for 1 trade, I mean it's a good card against Shop Aggro, but not earth shattering or anything.

One of the reason is that people are still obsessed with Juggernaut, which is just a bad card. Another reason is that some people still fail to see how insanely good Karn is, this is your cardadvantage. Turning all your lock permanents into beaters and killing all their Moxen can sometimes easily be like a 5 for 1.

EDIT: Ugh, was I wrong here, Juggernaut proved to be a lot better than I initially had expected during testing I am glad I run as it greatly aided me in winning last tournament.

[Red Irish]

The conception that Qasali Pridemage is somehow the reason for Shop Aggro's abmysal perfomance actually kind of puzzles me, especially now that damage on the stack is gone. It's just a 1 for 1 trade, I mean it's a good card against Shop Aggro, but not earth shattering or anything.

I don't think that anyone was arguing that it is THE reason, but rather one of many.

[Red Irish]

The conception that Qasali Pridemage is somehow the reason for Shop Aggro's abmysal perfomance actually kind of puzzles me, especially now that damage on the stack is gone. It's just a 1 for 1 trade, I mean it's a good card against Shop Aggro, but not earth shattering or anything.

One of the reason is that people are still obsessed with Juggernaut, which is just a bad card. Another reason is that some people still fail to see how insanely good Karn is, this is your cardadvantage. Turning all your lock permanents into beaters and killing all their Moxen can sometimes easily be like a 5 for 1.

Karn has lost a lot of strength in a metagame dominated by Null Rod. Rather than considering Qasali in isolation, think of it in a deck with mana accelaration that hurts your sphere effects (Noble Hierarch) and in conjunction with Trygon Predator.

[BruiZar]

Any good shop aggro build includes red for Magus of the Moon/Blood  Moon. Moon effect + Null Rod can totally change the dynamics of the matchup from aggro to control. In such a build, I would still play Karn because he's just so good and even with null rod out you can block inkwell or just attack.  I'm not sure if I would play Razormane over Duplicant for removal.

[Madpeep]

Karn is good against Inkwell?  What's an Inkwell?   Oohhhh yeah, I remember him, he's that big dude that people USED to play before the mono-red workshop aggro raper was made, i.e. Sphynx.

[BruiZar]

Karn is good against Inkwell?  What's an Inkwell?   Oohhhh yeah, I remember him, he's that big dude that people USED to play before the mono-red workshop aggro raper was made, i.e. Sphynx.

You're obviously a moron. Red Shop Aggro won a tournament just a week after you made this stupid and senseless comment.

[Mantis]

I think BruiZar is talking about me (since I won, techinically split, a 43 man tourney last week with Shop Aggro).

It's very true that Sphinx is very hard to deal with for Shop Aggro and I specifically prepared my list to deal with Sphinx by running 2 copies of Sculpting Steel in my maindeck. Colossus and Inkwell are quite easy to deal with, with Welder/Karn, Wire and Sculpting Steels, but you a decent amount of outs for Sphinx too with Trisk + 2 Welders or 2 Trisks, Wire and Sculpting Steels. You can also prevent them from playing the Tinker in the first place with your lock components.

Throughout the tournament I didn't face Sphinx a single time as I ran into TPS twice (with Colossus), Aggro MUD, Dredge, Stax and Drain Tendrills (with Inkwell) and beat them all. That said Sculpting Steel was the nuts, I would definately run them the next time and maybe go up to 3; during the tournament it copied an Inkwell (I had islandwalk he didnt), a Duplicant removing his Duplicant and Thorn and Wire several times. I even copied Trinisphere once against Dredge to prevent him from tapping it down with Fatestitcher (not sure if he even noticed this play but better safe than sorry).

Again, Sphinx is problematic for Shop Aggro and I put a lot of effort to not lose against it.

@Red Irish:
Fish can be problematic as Shop Aggro is a very manaintensive deck, thus the manadenial of Fish does help it win quite a few games. On the flipside, Shop Aggro can often lock down Fish in a similair fashion, Magus and Wasteland can cut Fish off the needed colors, Tangle Wire often creates an isurmountable amount of tempo and Chalice at 2 locks out a large portion of their deck. In testing we actually found that the Shop Aggro deck is favored but this could be due to me being much more experienced at Vintage than my Fish testing partner who is mainly a Legacy player.

I built my deck in such fashion that I could reliably take out my 4 Thorns and 1 Sphere of Resistance (I play 5 Spheres) and 2 Mox Monkey for 4 Solemn SB (they just dont do enough vs combo and Drains to warrant MD inclusion), 1 Viashino Heretic, 1 Triskelion and the 4th Magus. So you correctly assessed that the Spheres are dead cards, but they only play a role in one of the games.

To conclude I definately don't think Shop Aggro is a bad choice, the combination of pressure + lock pieces make it superior to Stax in my opinion. Locking down the opponent for a few turns through Thorns and Wire while your creatures munch on their lifetotal is just much easier to accomplish than a hard lock. Additionally it cuts of the strategic resource of the lifetotal for your opponent and as such the damage taken by Fetchlands and all that. Pressure means that your opponent has less topdecks to dig himself out of the situation.

[itslarrysilly]

Karn is good against Inkwell?  What's an Inkwell?   Oohhhh yeah, I remember him, he's that big dude that people USED to play before the mono-red workshop aggro raper was made, i.e. Sphynx.

You're obviously a moron. Red Shop Aggro won a tournament just a week after you made this stupid and senseless comment.

I think his post was more about how karn being an "answer" to inkwell isn't as important anymore now that sphynx is out here and that maybe he (karn) isn't as important to the deck.
 
I'm very interested in your results with SS, are you planning on posting a tournament report?

[BruiZar]

Karn is good against Inkwell?  What's an Inkwell?   Oohhhh yeah, I remember him, he's that big dude that people USED to play before the mono-red workshop aggro raper was made, i.e. Sphynx.

You're obviously a moron. Red Shop Aggro won a tournament just a week after you made this stupid and senseless comment.

I think his post was more about how karn being an "answer" to inkwell isn't as important anymore now that sphynx is out here and that maybe he (karn) isn't as important to the deck.
 
I'm very interested in your results with SS, are you planning on posting a tournament report?

Inkwell is still being played 1/3rd of the time whereas Sphinx takes nearly the remaining 2/3rds (not counting a couple of DSCs)

Karn is one of the more important cards of the deck because it serves a lot of roles. Steamroll with spheres/wires, shoot moxen, block most of the vintage creatures including an important tinker target. It's like a Juggernaut/Gorilla Shaman/Titania's Song/Wall of Ice on steroids castable through Workshop.

His point was that Redshop Aggro was dead due to Sphinx which is not true proven by Mantis' finish

[Tha Gunslinga]

Karn is good against Inkwell?  What's an Inkwell?   Oohhhh yeah, I remember him, he's that big dude that people USED to play before the mono-red workshop aggro raper was made, i.e. Sphynx.

I just run 2 Duplicant and 2 Sculpting Steel main.  Never had a problem with Sphinx.

[Mantis]

Tha Gunslinga: Mind sharing your list and also what are the big decks in your metagame? A lot of Oath I suppose?