Vintage Adept Q&A #11: Endgame

[Demonic Attorney]

What is the minimum payoff for yawgs will that you would actually consider casting it.  For example, on the play, you open with Lotus, Mox Pearl, Mox Emerald, island, yawgs will, duress, time walk.  Do you duress, walk, and then yawgs for an additional turn?  The product of this is of course, you being 3 turns ahead of your opponent, but you have no cards in hand, and have to assume you'll rip business cards.

OR do you slow play it, and wait for your graveyard to really build before you play yawgs will.

[Shock Wave]

Against an unknown opponent, I would play Island, Mox, Time Walk, and then hope to draw a threat or something that would make my Will a little more meaty. If I drew a blank, then I would Duress, Will, Duress, Time Walk, and hope for the best.

I don't really like that opening hand, unless I know what I am playing against. It seems to leave a lot to just raw dogging off the top of your library. I am not a fan of putting myself in that position.

[Demonic Attorney]

Revising my answer in light ShockWave's reminder:

As to the specifics of the example, I almost certainly wouldn't go immediately for Will on turn 1.  The only situation where I'd even consider it would be if I was certain I was up against a fast but fragile deck, like Belcher or SX, because double Duress would have such an impact.  In all other cases, I'd go for the Time Walk and try to draw into a black source besides the Lotus to fuel Duress.  From there, everything would depend on what I saw from the Duress.  Cantripping twice off Time Walk is nice, I guess, but there's no guarantee I'm even going to be able to make additional land drops by doing so.  Whether or not I went for Duress/Walk/Will/Duress/Walk would depend entirely on whether or not I thought I needed to Duress twice before my opponent got another turn in order to stay in the game.  So a hand like Oath, Oath, Pierce, Mox, Orchard, Fetch, Krec would definitely convince me to go for it with Will right away.  A hand with more staying power and/or fewer immediate threats I had to deal with right away probably wouldn't.

And that leads into my general point in answering this question.  Will is (or should be) a game-determining card.  If you're not using it for that purpose, you're doing it wrong.  Now, that doesn't mean that Will is only ever used to immediately Tendrils for 20, play Vault/Key, infinislave, Painter/Grindstone, or enable whatever other combo-finish you're using.  That's the ideal, but there other, subtler ways of determining the game.  In the example above, ripping the threats out of that hand and leaving that player with no business, while drawing twice off Time Walk, isn't inevitably game over, but it's a big enough advantage that I'd consider using Will to achieve it to be acceptable.

This is the general principle I use when deciding whether or not to go for it with Will.  If it will outright win me the game, or give me such a huge advantage that I think it's far more likely than not that I'll win eventually, I'll go for it.  And the contrapositive holds true, as well.  If playing Will seems like it will help me avoid my opponent outright winning or claiming an insurmountable advantage, I'll use it then, too.  But outside of those circumstances, I'll wait for Will to pay more dividends, with one further caveat.

All of the above assumes I can afford to wait to play Will and still expect it to resolve.  If I know a Glen Elendra Archmage is coming soon, if my opponent plays 4+ Duresses and hasn't yet seen any, if I have reason to believe that my opponent knows I have Will in hand and they have the ability to find and resolve Tormod's Crypt/Relic of Progenitus (or Ravenous Trap, I guess), then the handwriting's on the wall and it's now or never and I'll use it for whatever benefits I can get.  But the thrust of the question seemed to assume I could play Will now or play it later and expect it resolve; in that situation, I'd usually wait for it to be game-determinative.  

[Shock Wave]

As to the specifics of the example, everything would depend on what I saw from the Duress.

Your only black source is the Black Lotus though. Would you lead with Duress, cracking your Lotus for BBB?

[Yare]

I agree pretty much with what Shock Wave said. Opening with Walk (which almost undoubtedly will go uncountered) is the right play. I think what comes off the top of the deck next is fairly crucial. If you get something useful, then I would probably hold back with Will. Assuming I get nothing, whether to Will here probably depends upon what I saw in my opponent's hand (which I think is what DA meant above). If he has something that needs answered now, Will probably has to come right now. If not, then it's probably ok to hold off, as Will seems a little minuscule at this point.

Regarding keeping this hand as a general proposition, I have to agree with Shock Wave that this is a debatable one to keep, as the hand has no gas at all; you're at the mercy of the top of your deck. Sure, you'll get to draw two cards and Duress twice, but if you whiff on your draws and your opponent has any gas you couldn't remove with Duress, you're likely in trouble. Whether you know what your matchup is or not also matters, obviously.

As a general principle with Will, however, I'm not sure I agree with DA when he says it should be a "game-determining" card, though I don't want to get into a semantic debate. I mean, if it's Will for only one or two mediocre cards in my graveyard or nothing, it's time to Will, whether it is game determining or not. I even played Will just to get the land drop one time because I thought that was the crucial thing I needed right then. Maybe DA would agree with this and we're just mincing terms. Overall, however, I'm generally more willing to play Will if I think there is a good chance it will give me a decent advantage, even if it won't put me in a near unbeatable position at that point. Obviously, it often depends on what my other options are at the time.

[Rico Suave]

In this situation, Will is a Duress and a Time Walk combined into one card.  Casting such a card before my opponent has even had his first turn is a powerful play, and while it may not win the game it is a strong advantage nonetheless.  

The drawback is that you could conceivably just draw 2 dead cards right off the top (Land/Mox) and be up a creek.  I fail to see, however, where sand bagging the Will would be better in such a situation.  Giving your opponent a chance to develop would most likely kill you.

If you do happen to draw business from one of the two Time Walks, keep in mind you're going to be casting it before your opponent ever even gets his first turn, and this is after he has been Duressed twice.  You do lose the ability to Will later in the game which can be critical.

The goal with this opener is to put them into topdeck mode early, gain a strong advantage in mana early, and give yourself a 2 card lead in the topdeck war.  I would feel comfortable winning such a game.

Whether to keep this hand in the first place is another question entirely.  But playing it out, I would definitely go with Shock Wave's line of play.  

[TheBrassMan]

I agree with the general consensus of plays here.  Provided this is a keep, lead with Time Walk, pray you get something good, then run the double duress plan (unless you drew a different black source, then you obviously test duress first).  I think it's important to note, however, something about this thought:

The product of this is of course, you being 3 turns ahead of your opponent, but you have no cards in hand, and have to assume you'll rip business cards

I believe this has been written about before (I want to say menendian but it could have been anyone, I can't recall the article), but there's really no such thing as a "turn" in magic.  I mean obviously players take turns, but the value of that is highly variable.  A turn is just an untap (which is just mana = to the two mana you have out), a land drop (irrelevant here), an attack step, (irrelevant here), and a card, which isn't as good as just having that card in your hand instead of the Time Walk here.  This is all pretty obvious, and it seems you got the gist of it yourself by reading the question, but having taken three turns before your opponent took any is really unexciting here.  The value here, if there is any, is just that some hands lose to two duress. 

[Anusien]

Everything is a Time Walk

I'm not a fan of burning Time Walk early.  It's basically just a cantrip then.  I'd prefer to save it either to attack or to cast two spells before the opponent untaps.  In this case though I think you have to in order to try and protect Will, because I feel even stronger about Will.  I would Land, Mox, Walk here and hope I draw a black source to Duress them.  If I don't draw a black source or a Brainstorm, I think you have to cast the Will here, just because the hand literally goes nowhere if they untap and land, Duress you taking Will.  If they're not a deck capable of casting Will, depending on what you draw off the Walk turn I have no problems waiting a little.  That option only gets better the more you wait, not worse.

[Eastman]

I hold onto Yawg as long as I possibly can unless it will put me in a dominant position or I need to do it to prevent my opponent from taking the dominant position.  I completely agree that there is really no such thing as a 'turn' and when you're holding land/mox/lotus the time walk is really awful because you won't be using the land drops OR the untaps yet.  

Unless I need to lay cards out for tempo reasons, I almost always analyze them based on a long-view of the game.  With both Walk and Will in that hand, what are you getting from them? What might you get later?  The answer is absolutely more more more because you'll draw either lands to untap off walk or business to play twice in the subsequent turns.  

As to the specifics of the example, everything would depend on what I saw from the Duress.

Your only black source is the Black Lotus though. Would you lead with Duress, cracking your Lotus for BBB?

What if the top card of their deck is a Force of Will?  

Duress is another example of a card that (sometimes) you ought to hold.  The situation where you are hiding Yawg is a great example.  There will not be a point in the game where it is really bad to be holding lotus/duress/will.  The way to play this hand is to play land-go and slow play it all the way.  Your opponent will hesitate to go all-out because you'll still be gripping a fat hand, and the duress will be as good (probably better) protection for the will (which is your win) when it comes time to actually cast it.  Alternatively if you blow your hand your opponent will try to goldfish and, probably, succeed. 

I just don't see much benefit from the will/walk/walk/duress/duress plan.  That leaves them -2 cards and you -1 (after the draws are factored in).  In a game where you are leading with 4 sources/3 business, this is not a margin you can afford to run.  When you are the tempo lead you need to make plays that net you + cards so you can push that advantage.  

You're in an even stronger position as tempo lead here with lotus because, if you go land/go, they will likely think you are tempo light and make mistakes based on the deception.