Why I use Night's Whisper over Dark Confidant

[Cyberpunker]

Hello TMD users,

I have just gotten the Full Membership status and here is my following contribution to the community. I am going to write on why I believe Night's Whisper is a better engine for Tezzeret than Dark Confidant in today's metagame. I am going to break it down into 3 main parts and hope you guys find it insightful. Please keep in mind that this is only my opinion based off my own experiences. Maybe you guys have discovered more things about the game that would make a good case against my article. If so, please share it.

I am going to begin by assuming the following is true:
   1. Having more cards now is better than having more cards later, because having more cards now means you have more options now and in the immediate short term.
   2. More options means more chances to win.
   3. Tezzeret's biggest strength lies in the Key Vault combo.
 
Vintage decks have one thing in common, they are very fast and explosive. Most games involve whoever can successfully win the "race for their win condition." Take for example Ichorid, Oath, Tezzeret, ANT, even Stax.  Games involve who has the faster starting hand, and what answers the slower hand has. Each card is usually either to protect your draw engine as you dig for your win conditions(Duress, Thougthseize, Mana Drain, Unmask) or to slow the other deck down so you can set up your win before they do (Null Rod, Spheres, Leyline of the Void, Chalice etc,). Because that is the case, deckbuilders should try to find the cards that can give them the most tempo and cards that can take away tempo from the other players.
   
Speed
As of now, Tezzeret is still one of the fastest decks in the metagame and I believe that the best way to execute the key/vault combo is to take advantage of the deck's speed and unpredictability. So in terms of racing for the win, Night's Whisper is the best replacement for TFK in the current metagame because it provides a very fast "2 card dig" immediately and allows the Tezzeret player to speed up the combo. Night's Whisper gives you more options immediately and so you can cast more spells to search for the your win condition.  In the long term, Dark Confidant is better than Night's Whisper because it will eventually gain more cards as well as contribute to winning. But Night's Whisper is faster than Dark Confidant because it has an immediate effect, while Dark Confidant has to wait. And giving an opponent more turns means that they will have more time to also set up their win against you. There is no point in waiting 2 more turns for cards that can come immediately, especially since you are trying to outrace your opponent for the win. And again the faster you dig, the more spells you can cast; the more spells you can cast, the more tempo and card advantage you gain; the more of those you have, the closer you are to winning the game.

Versatility
Furthermore, Dark Confidant is vulnerable to hate in today's metagame Darkblast, Fire/Ice, Lightning Bolt, Swords to Plowshares etc. What is especially dangerous but often taken lightly by Tezzeret players is the scenario where your Dark Confidant is Repealed. That means your opponent has gained tempo while it was originally supposed to be your turn to "dig for the win." Next turn, they will take their time to dig further for their win condition. And while it is a 1 for 1 trade, you have just lost your draw engine and since that was your way of digging for the win you will most likely rely on topdeck mode.That means one of two things: 1. You will have to use the counters you would have used to protect your win condition and counter their spells aimed at your Confidant 2. You will have to make sure you stop your opponent from setting up his win condition so both of you can be in topdeck mode together. (even countering his Sensei's Divining Top). Finally, let's not forget Dark Confidant can potentially kill you without a Sensei's Divining Top out. And drawing the 2nd or 3rd Dark Confidant would be a setback for the Tezzeret player. Either the Tezzeret player gambles with a 2nd Confidant (a good payoff if the gamble succeeds) or is stuck with 1-2 dead cards in his hand. While the 2-3rd Night's Whisper would still be useful to cast because they do not really endanger you as much as Dark Confidant.

Night's Whisper is a much harder draw engine to hate. While all the answers to Night's Whisper is an answer to Dark Confidant, not all the answers to Dark Confidant can take out Whisper. Usually no one will Force of Will it (unless they hardcast it). And the opponent has to react immediately. Often they do not and I get to draw 2 and then go on from there.

With the rise of Iona Oath as a potential threat, Dark Confidant's attractiveness takes an even bigger drop. Needless to say, you will never cast Dark Confidant early in this matchup for fear of giving them an easy Oath. You again will be stuck with 4 potential dead cards Game 1 and lose your draw engine Game 2. Night's Whisper does not have this problem and you can still cast it to draw cards while not giving your opponent the easy Oath.

  End.  

[MirariKnight]

Let me state that I am not a Confidant fan for Tezz either. I certainly recognize how good he is, but I do feel he is lacking/weak in the same areas the OP pointed out. Oath is EVERYWHERE and the play of turn 1/2 Bob isn't as good as it used to be.
Night's Whisper seems like the obvious replacement, as it's a relatively similar effect (life for cards, same mana cost, sorcery speed), and I have tried it and I do like it.
There are some other cards that fill similar roles, some more well known and some less. Just wondering people's take on these (I've never actually tested them since I don't usually play Tezz):
2) Three Wishes - This digs 3 cards deep, instant speed. In terms of digging for the combo this seems pretty good. The only problem is that you REALLY need to cast it on their end step so it's not great with Drains. EDIT - Nevermind I keep thinking this is like Memory Jar. Scratch that idea.
3) Strategic Planning/Skeletal Scrying - I don't know if this is actually any good, but I've been using 1 Scrying alone and it's kinda ridiculous. Could it be possible to use this instead of Night's Whisper if there are some number of Strategic Plannings filling up the yard for it? Perhaps this is too convoluted compared to the more elegant Night's Whisper, but neither Scrying nor Planning are bad on their own.

Perhaps the best reason I can see for keeping Confidant in, aside from it's obvious strength, is that it adds win conditions vs. Cap effects, which, probably as a result of Oath, have been a lot more common lately.

[TheBrassMan]

@mirariknight - I'm not sure Three Wishes works the way you think: it wouldn't be very effective cast on an opponent's end step.
Skeletal Scrying I've had some success with plenty of times, but it's pretty specialized in its use, and probably just plain not as fun to play when welder vs colossus is a nonissue. 

@kooaz
Not sure I'm qualified to say what's a better replacement for Thirst in Tez, considering I'm not convinced it was that exciting in the first place.  I don't like Confidant now, and haven't had the inclination/spare time to test Night's Whisper seriously for years, and it was pretty awful back then (not that that's proof now.)  The premises of your post all seem pretty sound to me, but I don't necessarily see how they lead you right to Night's Whisper.  If we're looking for cheap unrestricted deck manipulation, Night's Whisper is one of the worst options available.  It's harder to cast than half a dozen one drop blue cantrips that see at least 2 cards, and looks at less cards than half a dozen two drop blue spells (still easier to cast).  Nevermind the fact that many of those spells are instants.  It sounded from your description that it's more important to find your good cards now than generate "true" card advantage.  Do you think Night's Whisper is better in this role over say, Impulse? (back@mirariknight, I'm always a little horrified when people suggest Strategic Planning and ignoring Impulse, but I know plenty of people do it.)  Or alternatively are you suggesting that Night's Whisper is correct because it's somewhere in between?  That is, Dark Confidant is too slow, but Sleight and Impulse sacrifice too much "card advantage" for what they gain in selection.  I don't necessarily think this is the case, but I don't think it would be awful reasoning.  Either way that makes things pretty difficult to nail down without just testing a lot.

[voltron00x]

I actually think Impulse would function very will in current Tezz.  I'm hoping somebody gives it a shot.

I'm personally not at all impressed with Night's Whisper, it seems bad against a large number of match-ups.

[zeus-online]

I tried impulse, it was decent...i liked telling time a bit better though. I also tried running 4 remand, 3 intuition and 3 Deep analysis that was actually pretty good as it allowed me to run almost entirely on islands. Remand is sometimes just the best counter i've remanded ad nauseams after the opponent spend rituals on it, delayed shop decks a few turns so that i could finish the game before he even got to really do anything. Also, it's pretty hard to stop the DA-Train once it gets going...It's also a nice feeling draining into a DA.

[MirariKnight]

Yeah I keep thinking that Three Wishes works like Memory Jar, which it obviously doesn't. That makes it infinitely worse.

I was going to suggest Impulse as well but I didn't bother since that's one of the more "well known" options. I suggested Strategic Planning because of the synergy w/ Skeletal Scrying, maybe that would allow you to run more then 1-2 Scrying in the deck.

Deep Analysis has always been good to me when I've played it (although usually in Oath). I'd think it would be fine, especially with Drains. The questions then becomes: once you run Intuition, is DA better than AK (probably)? The problem with these kinds of draw engines is that they're amazing in the control mirror, but try playing that draw engine vs Mana Denial or Combo. I can't imagine it's very successful.  If you're expecting to play against tons of Control, then definitely go for it.

[zeus-online]

Deep analysis was far better then AK when i tested it. The main thing against fish, fishlike decks and workshops is that it allows you to play with very few nonbasics...i think i was down to 2 underground sea, 1 academy and a library. other then that my mana base was islands and fetches. Remand was really good against those decks aswell, although it was very swingy against combo decks (IE, if they have alot of mana it did nothing) The key thing is that most shop decks and fish decks only have mana to pump out 1 threat per turn so remand was like a time walk, allowing me to get mana drain up and eventually just draw alot of cards with the deep analysis's.

[Shock Wave]

I am very surprised that people would choose Night's Whisper over Bob, even if it is stronger against Oath decks. In almost every other circumstance, I feel that Bob is just unequivocally stronger. The main reason is that it is an engine all by itself, whereas resolving Night's Whisper leaves you really hoping that something is in those top two cards. If your opponent resolves Bob, and you can't deal with him, you will need an explosive hand to win the game, otherwise Bob will overwhelm you quickly. If Night's Whisper resolves, well, big deal.

[Tha Gunslinga]

Pretty hard to beat down or chump block with Night's Whisper, I've found.  The secret is to proxy them really badly, so you can pretend they're Confidants when you need to.

[Gekoratel]

I am very surprised that people would choose Night's Whisper over Bob, even if it is stronger against Oath decks. In almost every other circumstance, I feel that Bob is just unequivocally stronger. The main reason is that it is an engine all by itself, whereas resolving Night's Whisper leaves you really hoping that something is in those top two cards. If your opponent resolves Bob, and you can't deal with him, you will need an explosive hand to win the game, otherwise Bob will overwhelm you quickly. If Night's Whisper resolves, well, big deal.

I tend to agree with Vroman on this one lets say you have a hand which is land heavy but turn 1 Whisper playing a post-board game in the mirror match.  The cards you draw are Duress + REB, this is nice with Whisper because you will be able to disrupt them next turn with Duress.  Also REB will help buy time until you draw a threat or protect your next drawn threat.  However if that Whisper was Bob next turn you would draw into Duress/REB and now be able to protect Bob while disrupting the opponent.  Their in a losing position that they need to either deal with Confidant or generate a quick win through REB.  Whisper is support whereas Bob is an engine.  Even if people are running 2 MD hate cards for Bob they need to see them, you need to have Bob, and if you have a counter you can decide if protecting Bob is worth it or not.

[Anusien]

Dark Confidant is kind of a liability against Oath and Darkblasts. But at the same time, Dark Confidant is often a spell opponents hate to see resolve, where Night's Whisper is kind of "meh". So I keep running Dark Confidant.

[JACO]

There are two things that people seem to ignore about Dark Confidant.
1) the damage that Confidant deals to your opponent actually creates more card advantage than most people realize. Based on Necropotence/Yawgmoth's Bargain/Ad Nauseam, if every damage you take you potentially net you 1-2 cards (see the old MeanDeck SX discussions for more on this), Confidant is preventing your opponent from potentially using that lost life as a resource, thus gaining you even more virtual card advantage than just the card revealed/drawn every turn. It's almost like a Night's Whisper every turn (your card, and the virtual card created by the damage it caused opponent opponent).
2) the fact that he's an alternate win condition. I have probably won more games with just beating down with Confidant and controlling the game state off his draws than actually winning with stuff like Vault/Key/Tezzeret in the Tezzeret decks being discussed here. As an additional note to this, Confidant can also provide a body to act as a blocker in the face of an opposing creature if you do resolve Tezzeret, and this can soak up the damage that Tezzeret would otherwise undoubtedly be assigned (preventing you from taking the rest of the turns of the game).

I don't think I've ever countered a Night's Whisper in my life, but I can tell you I have never wanted to see my opponent resolve Dark Confidant. Sure, he might be a creature in the face of opposing Oath decks, but that doesn't mean you have to stop running him (see: Spell Snare, Annul, Thoughtseize, etc.). There's a reason that some people have been running Darkblast main for a while now: because Dark Confidant is that good that you absolutely need an answer to it.

[Anusien]

It has been a comfort in some games with Tez to know Sadistic Sacrament can't remove all my sources of damage. I don't think the card is any good, but it doesn't hurt to be prepared.

[Smmenen]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

[Shock Wave]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

[Smmenen]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.   

[JACO]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.   

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

[Smmenen]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.   

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

Yes, but if the Bob Tez lists run Gifts and Fact, unlike Hiromichi's list, they are at much greater risk of killing themselves with Bob.  That's why some dont run those cards. 

[JACO]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.   

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

Yes, but if the Bob Tez lists run Gifts and Fact, unlike Hiromichi's list, they are at much greater risk of killing themselves with Bob.  That's why some dont run those cards. 

Even if they do the ACMC is like 1.34 or something (instead of say 1.31), so the difference ends up being minimal. Frankly it's not worth not running the broken cards to not die to Confidant, because against Control they're game breakers, and when the little life matters (and against things like Null Rod where your mana will be restricted) you can side them out for other things instead.

[Smmenen]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.  

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.   

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

Yes, but if the Bob Tez lists run Gifts and Fact, unlike Hiromichi's list, they are at much greater risk of killing themselves with Bob.  That's why some dont run those cards. 

Even if they do the ACMC is like 1.34 or something (instead of say 1.31), so the difference ends up being minimal. Frankly it's not worth not running the broken cards to not die to Confidant, because against Control they're game breakers, and when the little life matters (and against things like Null Rod where your mana will be restricted) you can side them out for other things instead.

Just because the ACMC is only slightly higher doesn't mean the difference is minimal.   That's the wrong point of view, imo.  The issue is the risk of two or three high flips, which goes up dramatically if you have both Fact and Gifts, even though the acmc only rises slightly.  Jacob Orlove pointed this out to me a few months back. 

[JACO]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

Yes, but if the Bob Tez lists run Gifts and Fact, unlike Hiromichi's list, they are at much greater risk of killing themselves with Bob.  That's why some dont run those cards. 

Even if they do the ACMC is like 1.34 or something (instead of say 1.31), so the difference ends up being minimal. Frankly it's not worth not running the broken cards to not die to Confidant, because against Control they're game breakers, and when the little life matters (and against things like Null Rod where your mana will be restricted) you can side them out for other things instead.

Just because the ACMC is only slightly higher doesn't mean the difference is minimal. That's the wrong point of view, imo. The issue is the risk of two or three high flips, which goes up dramatically if you have both Fact and Gifts, even though the acmc only rises slightly. Jacob Orlove pointed this out to me a few months back.

It may seem like that, but having played Confidant in nearly every Vintage deck I've played the past couple of years (as your teammate Jimmy can attest to ), in my experience you really don't care about Force, Fact, or Gifts being revealed in multiples. You only care if you flip over your Tinker target, whether it's Colossus, Inkwell, Sphinx of the 6/6 Life Gain, or Sundering Titan, because it's such a big chunk in one turn, especially if you happen to be playing any number of Thoughtseizes. It's the same principle in B/R Stax; you play a bunch of mid to high casting cost things (Trinisphere, Triskelion, Smokestacks, etc.), but you also play a lot of 0/1 casting cost things, so it really averages it out, and the difference betweeen 1.30 and even like 1.40 is pretty marginal in the long run (but don't get me wrong, the difference between something like 1.1 and 1.5 is quite noticeable). Magic was partially designed as a mathematical game of averages, and like counting cards in Blackjack this is very similar. You're usually playing by the numbers when you build your deck and run a Confidant out there in the middle or late game.

Is it possible that you're going to take 8 damage in two turns? Yes it's possible, but highly unlikely. That's more likely over the course of 3-4 turns. Along this line of thought, if you are able to succesfully reveal 3-4 cards with Confidant you're usually going to win the game too, even if you've taken 8 damage along the way by revealing 2 big cards over 4 turns.

All of this ignores the fact that most of these decks are also playing 1-2 Sensei's Divining Tops, which reduces the damage you'll take and increases the card quality (making Confidant even stronger than Night's Whisper as well). I've argued they all should be playing a minimum of 2-3 for these reasons, and because of the fact that since the restriction of Brainstorm/Ponder, no card can make up for the loss of Brainstorm's search and filtering (and hand protection) as well as SDT. Contrary to popular belief SDT is not bad in multiples, and is one of the best first turn plays you can make in these decks (especially if not playing Duress).

Regarding Itou Hiromichi's deck from Vintage Worlds 2009, his ACMC is actually relatively high (94/60=1.567), because he also chose to run a lot of mid to higher casting cards other than suitable replacements (Misdirection, Fire/Ice, Rack and Ruin instead of Duress and Repeal, for example). Ignoring the fact that he could have optimized this further if worried about Confidant damage, running Gifts Ungiven in the slot of Magus of the Unseen would have been much stronger over the course of the tournament and made very little difference in his ACMC (96/60=1.6).

[Smmenen]

It's interesting, I think part of the answer relates to how people expect to use Dark Confidant.   When I play with my Tez list, I expect to be able to win in ten turns with Bob if need be, and be well ahead in life totals.   In fact, I like playing multiple Bobs.   How comfortable are most Tez pilots with 3 Bobs in play?   Not very, if you run Fact and Gifts, I imagine.

[JACO]

It's interesting, I think part of the answer relates to how people expect to use Dark Confidant.   When I play with my Tez list, I expect to be able to win in ten turns with Bob if need be, and be well ahead in life totals.   In fact, I like playing multiple Bobs.   How comfortable are most Tez pilots with 3 Bobs in play?   Not very, if you run Fact and Gifts, I imagine.

I too want to have multiple Confidants in play and be able to play the beat down strategy. Sensei's Divining Top is so good in helping with this, and helping your overall card quality, which is why I view it as the obvious companion card with Confidant, and also great on its own. Even without a SDT in play, even if you have 2-3 Confidants in play and are taking damage from you own fetchlands, as long as you're keeping the board clean and are attacking every turn you should stastically come out ahead in the damage race, barring the corner cases (your 1.5~ ACMC vs 2 damage Confidant attacks for).

In Hiromichi's deck the TCMC was 96, and that's the second highest of any of the Confidant Tezzeret decks I've actually taken the time to count. By contrast, most of my versions the past year have been between 84-88 pretty consistently (and is on the low end for Tezzeret decks), which is a difference of about .1 per card.

[Purple Hat]

has anyone actually analyzed the variances of CMC's for different archetypes as it relates to suicide by bob?  might be interesting.  Sensei's divining top doesn't change your average CMC much in my experience, it does change the variance.

[JACO]

has anyone actually analyzed the variances of CMC's for different archetypes as it relates to suicide by bob?  might be interesting.  Sensei's divining top doesn't change your average CMC much in my experience, it does change the variance.

Here's some quick links for a brief comparison (all rounded to the nearest one thousandth).
2009 Vintage World Champs
Itou Hiromichi - Confidant Tezzeret 94/60=1.567
Colin Wu -  Confidant Drain Tendrils 93/61=1.55
Devon Ducommun - B/G Aggro 72/61=1.18

ICBM Xtreme Open Day 2
Jerry Yang - B/R Stax 73/60=1.217
Jaco - Confidant Tezzeret 88/60=1.467
Mike Solymossy - Confidant Ritual Tendrils 73/60=1.217

LCV Vintage FINAL
Adam Albors - Confidant Tezzeret 97/60=1.617

Boulder Mox Jet Tourney
Travis Spero - Confidant Nauseam 75/60=1.25

MeanDeck Open 11/22/09
Steve Q. Menendian - Confidant Tezzeret 91/60=1.517
John Adams - BUG Fish 76/60=1.267
Isaac Seigmund - Confidant Tezzeret 93/60=1.55
Jerry Yang - Confidant Ritual Tendrils Tezzeret 80/60=1.333
Korey Age - Confidant Drain EmptyGifts 95/60=1.583

BlueBell GameDay #1
Max Brown - Dark Depths Aggro 61/60=1.017
Rob Edwards - Confidant Tezzeret 93/60=1.55
Dominic DiFebo - Confidant Drain Tendrils 97/60=1.617

Supertars 12/09
David Ochoa - Confidant Tezzeret 92/60=1.533

My latest Confidant Tezzeret build from Xtreme Games a couple of months ago 84/60=1.40

MeanDeck Beats Revised
Steve Q Menendian - BWG MeanDeck Aggro 70/60=1.167

B/R Stax Primer by Twaun
Anthony Michaels - B/R Stax 68/60=1.133


From this small sample you get the following rough estimates:
B/R Stax - 1.1-1.3
Confidant Tezzeret - 1.4-1.6
Confidant Drain Tendrils - 1.5-1.6
Confidant Ritual Tendrils - 1.2-1.3
BUG Fish/BWG Fish/BG/MonoBlack Aggro - 1.1-1.3
Confidant Nauseam - 1.2-1.3

I could actually write a full article about a more comprehensive analysis of this by month and region if there was enough interest, and a site interested in hosting it.

[Godder]

I'd be interested, and you could host it here.

[Marske]

@Jaco,
I'm also interested in this data and at letting you put up an article on www.Vintage-Sideboard.com. PM me if you want more info.

[Troy_Costisick]

Count me in as interested.

[Purple Hat]

I meant the statistical variance of the CMC's of cards in individual decks.  I was asking because the average CMC's of decks seem to change by about .2 either way around a mean of 1.3.  that doesn't seem like all that big of a spread of means to me, yet confidant is a problem in some decks and not in others.

[Smmenen]

My view is pretty simple: Night's Whisper is sort of like Intuition AK.  It's strong in the control mirror, but terrible against Stax and Fish comparatively.    Dark Confidant is much better than NW against Stax and Fish.   People act as if the only relevant matchup is the control mirror.   Not so.

... Night's Whisper is stronger than Bob in the control mirror? 

If you have Bobs as a draw engine, I can run Fact, Gifts, NWs, and probably outdraw you.

Sure, but most Drain decks that play Confidant also play Gifts and Fact or Fiction, so you're probably not going to outdraw them. The singleton draw plan (Gifts, Fact, Scrying, 2-3 Night's Whisper, Jace, etc.) is comparable to the Confidant+Gifts/Fact plan, but the Confidants give more leverage against Stax as stated.

Yes, but if the Bob Tez lists run Gifts and Fact, unlike Hiromichi's list, they are at much greater risk of killing themselves with Bob.  That's why some dont run those cards. 

Even if they do the ACMC is like 1.34 or something (instead of say 1.31), so the difference ends up being minimal. Frankly it's not worth not running the broken cards to not die to Confidant, because against Control they're game breakers, and when the little life matters (and against things like Null Rod where your mana will be restricted) you can side them out for other things instead.

Just because the ACMC is only slightly higher doesn't mean the difference is minimal. That's the wrong point of view, imo. The issue is the risk of two or three high flips, which goes up dramatically if you have both Fact and Gifts, even though the acmc only rises slightly. Jacob Orlove pointed this out to me a few months back.

It may seem like that, but having played Confidant in nearly every Vintage deck I've played the past couple of years (as your teammate Jimmy can attest to ), in my experience you really don't care about Force, Fact, or Gifts being revealed in multiples. You only care if you flip over your Tinker target, whether it's Colossus, Inkwell, Sphinx of the 6/6 Life Gain, or Sundering Titan, because it's such a big chunk in one turn, especially if you happen to be playing any number of Thoughtseizes. It's the same principle in B/R Stax; you play a bunch of mid to high casting cost things (Trinisphere, Triskelion, Smokestacks, etc.), but you also play a lot of 0/1 casting cost things, so it really averages it out, and the difference betweeen 1.30 and even like 1.40 is pretty marginal in the long run (but don't get me wrong, the difference between something like 1.1 and 1.5 is quite noticeable). Magic was partially designed as a mathematical game of averages, and like counting cards in Blackjack this is very similar. You're usually playing by the numbers when you build your deck and run a Confidant out there in the middle or late game.

The thing is, we don't actually play Magic that way.   That's why Spoils of the Vault doesn't see play.  It only kills you 8% of the time, but that 8% is deemed to high or unacceptably high by the field.

That's why, I again assert, that ACMC is the wrong lens.

Let me just quote Jacob:

The difference in your average CMC between a deck that has Gifts + Fact and one that runs two 0cc cards in those slots (Crypt and LoA I guess?) is 0.13333etc. That's an average of one extra damage from Bob every 8 turns, less if you replace them with 1-2 CMC cards.


I don't think average CMC is the best metric to evaulate Bob damage here. It's more that you shift from ~7 high CMC cards to ~9. That's both an increased chance to get hit once, and a much higher chance to hit two high CMC cards in the same game.

yeah, that's my concern. 

If you start with 6 high CMC cards and add two, then once you've drawn one, the extra two make you almost 40% more likely than before to hit a second. That's a significant increase, even if your average CMC only goes up by about 0.1

You see Jacob's point?   CMC is the wrong lens to evaluate Bob.   Because the question isn't whether, in average, whether you will die, but what happens if you hit one of your high casting cost spells.   Overall CMC obscures this fact.

I think the key metric to ask is: how many high CMC cards to each of these decks have?   Itou's Tezzeret and my Tezzeret both have high ACMC according to your math, but our lists have few flips of 4 or more.   Mine only has Inky, 4 Force, 1 Misd, and 1 Tez.  Itou's only has 6 as well.