Starting points for Fact or Fiction

[diopter]

The current Fact or Fiction discussion is rather unsatisfying. I do understand the need to have a starting point for building around FoF. But currently the two big ideas are to ram it in Tezz and Slaver.

Tezz as a partner surely seems like asking for trouble against 13Sphere. Also they seem to run at cross purposes since FoF seems to compel you to play Mana Drain (more on that below).

Welder decks are intriguing but unfortunately it is not 2005. Brainstorm x 4 went a long way to making the numerous dead draws that Slaver had palatable. And Stax, which from the outset will be an uphill battle, does not fear Welder alone. The standard answer for that 5 years ago was Shaman but blue decks fear their moxen being eaten less and less in this metagame.

Here are some things that I think are true about building a 4 Fact deck:

1.) It will compel you to play 4 Mana Drain. Obviously if this is not correct then the entire dynamic of the deck changes. But I think it's a solid foundation - Fact is an instant which compels you to play counters, Drain is a good mate since it can provide you with mana to play Fact, which can then draw more Drains for the Facts you chain into... etc. etc.

2.) The best way to abuse FoF is to focus on the 2-3 cards going into your hand rather than the 2-3 cards going into your graveyard. So we'll shelve the cutesy tricks like 4x Snapcaster Mage for now. Which is not to say that we may not run 1x Mage or 1x Regrowth to pair with a singleton Gifts, or as a bit of insurance against binning Time Vault AND Will AND Tinker, or whatnot. Past in Flames might even be an option though truly leveraging its power requires rituals or the like, which seems out of the question since...

3.) ...Stax will be an uphill battle. The standard "2 bounce" suite of eons past will probably not cut it since FoF is not Gifts in the literal sense that you actually untap and deal 20 for the win. Stax has evolved too so you need a considered way of dealing with it.

As a starting point for an initial list, I took the Turbo Tezz mana engine. This is my favorite part of that deck anyway, since it is a way to power out big mana spells that doesn't automatically die to 13Sphere. Caveat being you expose yourself to Rods, Silences and Revokers but you can't have everything and we're painting with broad strokes anyway.

Fact or Fiction 0.1

3 Island
2 Snow-Covered Island
2 Underground Sea
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Polluted Delta
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Flooded Strand
1 Tolarian Academy

1 Black Lotus
5 Mox
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring
1 Lotus Petal
2 Grim Monolith

1 Blightsteel Colossus
1 Time Vault
2 Voltaic Key
1 Tinker
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth's Will

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
4 Fact or Fiction
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
4 Spell Pierce
4 Steel Sabotage

It's a 0.1 which means there is a long way to go before we arrive at a solution that fits nicely into this metagame, but for now two questions will need to be answered:

- Is Steel Sabotage ok? It's an answer that isn't really dead against the mirror since BSC/Vault is so prevalent, but against Stax you need to consider if you can beat their standard openings (Golem? Double Sphere?) with just a single Sabotage in hand. On the play? On the draw? This slot will probably change but I think it's a good starting point as any.

- Is Spell Pierce a good 3rd counter? You need a "generic" turn 1 play since Drain isn't online very often. Another option might be Mana Leak though the latter is actually not as good in a counter battle over your own FoF.

Considered thoughts and opinions are welcome.

[MaximumCDawg]

I think you're on the right foot.  I agree that Fact can be seen as a "draw the best 1 or 2 cards in your top 5," and the graveyard aspect is incidental.  As a draw engine, Fact or Fiction's defining charateristic is that it's pretty expensive.  I think that leads you in either of two directions: Mana Drains, or Rituals. 

Going down the Mana Drain path, 3 or 4 is probably right.  Multiple Facts lets you really capitalize on the tempo swing that Mana Drain can offer.  I don't know if you want 4, because it still costs UU and so it's not as good in your opening hand as Steel Sabotage / Flusterstorm / Spell Pierce.  You want to draw it eventually, but you don't need it right out of the gates.  If you go with Drain (an expensive counterspell) and Facts (an expensive draw engine) then it seems like you're looking to play a controlling role in the early game and capitalize on your ability to swing tempo hard in the midgame.  I also agree that once you've decided you're going to control the midgame, Gifts is a good addition and you need an "I win" gifts pile at the ready.

Once you've loaded your midgame plays with 3 or 4 Facts and a Gifts, I'm not sure that it is correct to start putting MORE expensive cards, like Tezz, into the mix.  I get that it seems like they all work off the same accellerants - drains and monoliths in your list - but I'd be terrified of playing a deck that cannot operate until turns 2 or 4 if the enemy lands null rod / chalice / mox monkey / stony silence / etc.  I suggest, instead, that you choose to dedicate your midgame to your draw engine and win conditions.  This suggests a more drain-tendrisly build might be more successful.  And, remember, you need to survive the early game too.

With that in mind, here's my first draft of a Drain suggestion:

Draw Engine (6):
3 Fact or Fiction
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm

Permission (17):
6 Flusterstorm / Steel Sabotage / Spell Pierce / Ylixid Jailer (Flex slot between main and sb)
3 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
4 Mental Misstep

Disruption (7):
3 Duress / Leyline of the Void (Flex slot between main and sb)
4 Lilliana of the Veil / Hurkyl's Recall / Pithing Needle / Trygon Predator / Ancient Grudge (Flex slot between main and sb)

Accellerants (9)
5 Moxen
4 Sol Ring, Lotus, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault

Tutor (5)
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Tinker
1 Recoup

Win Con (2)
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Blightsteel Collosus

Land (18)
6 Blue Fetches
4 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Strip Mine
2 Island
1 Swamp

The concept here is to play heavy control early to ensure you get to the midgame, where your draw engine should be superior to others.  Early game, you need to stop spheres / bobs / gush / wincons, so there are alot of counterspells to suit to taste for the particular matchup.  Midgame, you're looking to resolve Yawgwill->Tendrils or Tinker->Blightsteel.  The red splash for recoup helps your Gifts piles, and permits you to run Ancient Grudge, which should work well with Fact or Gifts in a pinch.

[diopter]

No Time Walk? Liliana? Jailer MD as a possibility?

[MaximumCDawg]

Just spitball'n a concept.  You're right, though, Walk should probably be in any deck with Tinker.  As for Jailer, it was just put as a sb possibility in a slot that isnt great against Dredge anyway.

We're both barking up a remarkably similar tree, with heavy early game countermagic moving into a powerful midgame.  The biggest difference is I'm seeing more of a Tendrils plan, since that feeds off Fact and Drain without being parasitic (like Tezz.)

[diopter]

 Who said anything about Tezzeret?

[Commandant]

Been doing some very similar brainstorming.

I believe Mental Misstep and Force of Will get you to an active Mana Drain and allow you to drop the mana rocks on turn one.

I'm running one Tezzeret of the Seeker variety and two Goblin Welders. You should try both out before excluding them from the list as I feel the Time Key plan is a much more realistic end point for a TurboTezzesque build such as this. Tezzeret has obvious synergy and is very easy to power out. I found in testing tonight that Welder added some much needed redundancy.

For what it's worth the following is the list I tested tonight. People are worried about the Workshop match up because of the high CC of FoF; I'd argue the whole point of a list like this is to power past Workshops game plan with a fast and solid mana base (the original point of Turbo Tezzeret - duh?).

4   Force of Will
4   Mana Drain
4   Mental Misstep
1   Ancestral Recall
1   Brainstorm
4   Fact or Fiction
1   Sensei's Divining Top
1   Thirst for Knowledge
1   Demonic Tutor
1   Gifts Ungiven
1   Merchant Scroll
1   Mystical Tutor
1   Tinker
1   Vampiric Tutor
1   Blightsteel Colossus
1   Tezzeret the Seeker
1   Time Vault
1   Voltaic Key
2   Goblin Welder
1   Hurkyl's Recall
1   Time Walk
1   Yawgmoth's Will
1   Black Lotus
2   Grim Monolith
1   Mana Crypt
1   Mana Vault
1   Mox Emerald
1   Mox Jet
1   Mox Pearl
1   Mox Ruby
1   Mox Sapphire
1   Sol Ring
1   Tolarian Academy
2   Polluted Delta
4   Scalding Tarn
3   Island
1   Volcanic Island
3   Underground Sea

[desolutionist]

I think Spell Pierce is better at getting you to active Mana Drain (inevitably EOTFOFYL) and fighting cards like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but it is interesting that Mental Misstep seems good at protecting Fact or Fiction from an opposing Spell Pierce.  I think you want both. 2:1 or 2:2.  What's the optimum number of counterspells? 

[Commandant]

I think Spell Pierce is better at getting you to active Mana Drain (inevitably EOTFOFYL) and fighting cards like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but it is interesting that Mental Misstep seems good at protecting Fact or Fiction from an opposing Spell Pierce.  I think you want both. 2:1 or 2:2.  What's the optimum number of counterspells?  

That's a solid point Shawn. What are the pros and cons of Spell Pierce when compared to Mental Misstep? In testing I found Misstep to be stronger if only for the reason you listed as well as the free cost which allows the deck to develop it's mana base.

[bluemage55]

You might want to consider Thoughtseize/Duress as the one mana bridge to Drain.

Duress effects are helpful in stopping the 1-2 mana threats that you don't want to Drain, allowing you to conserve Drain for a juicer target.  Peeking at the opponent's hand also confers tremendous advantages in planning out whether you need to keep UU untapped at all, when you could instead cast something like Welder, Top, Scroll, Demonic, etc.  Finally, casting one prior to FoF (whether fueled by Drain mana or artifacts) is the best sort of protection possible.

[MaximumCDawg]

Menendian's podcast (SMIP) No. 8 has some relevant things to say about Fact or Fiction, check it out.  In particular, he points out that FoF was used in control shells back in the day, as a way to chain card advantage at EOT.  Food for thought when considering how many counterspells to run.

[gamegeek2]

Can you provide a link?

[desolutionist]

In the podcast, Steve references 15 counterspells but in one of the first versions of FoF that I've tested played 4 Spell Pierce, 4 Mental Misstep, 4 Mana Drain, and 4 Force of Will.  Obviously, this is too much; it caused problems.  11-13 is probably around where we should be. 

*EDIT*

I've been liking Forbidden Alchemy more and more.  For reference, here is my latest FoF list:
(Wheel of Fortune and Memory Jar probably don't belong, but they're personal favorites)

4 Fact or Fiction
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
3 Mana Drain
4 Force of Will
1 Tinker
1 Sol Ring
1 Mana Vault
1 Mana Crypt
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
2 Spell Pierce
3 Forbidden Alchemy
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Volcanic Island
3 Underground Sea
3 Polluted Delta
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Flooded Strand
3 Island
1 Tolarian Academy
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Misdirection
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Brainstorm
1 Memory Jar
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Rebuild
1 Recoup
2 Mental Misstep

[xouman]

I began testing something like this

weld or fiction

manabase - 26
4 volcanic island
1 tolarian academy
6 fetchlands
4 island
5 moxen
1 black lotus
1 sol ring
1 mana crypt
1 mana vault
2 mox opal

creatures - 10
4 goblin welder
4 riddlemith
1 etherium sculptor
1 myr battlesphere

spells - 24
3 sensei's diving top
2 voltaic key
1 time vault
1 memory jar
3 hurkyl's recall
4 force of will
1 misdirection
1 ancestral recall
1 time walk
1 thirst of knowledge
1 empty the warrens
4 fact or fiction
1 tinker


Obv I have not worked so much, but I looked for nice synergies. Riddlesmith is nuts with so many artifacts. Probably 4 is too much, but your opponent should counter it or would be in a serious trouble. Besides, it's good in numbers (each mox becomes a careful study with 2), it's a blue card for fow... the problem is that does not give CA, but then it's when FOF shines, allowing you to replenish your hand quite easily in T2. With riddlesmith and FOF grave is filled, and then welders end it's game. I was even considering 1 copy of anger, in order to have welder online the same turn it drops.

Etherium sculptor is only as 1 of, and may be removed. I like it's synergy with top, as with 2 tops you get infinite spells, and having 1 sculptor, 1 riddlesmith and 1 top you can draw and discard the entire deck without mana, but outside this it's quite crappy. I consider replacing sculptor and tops with skullclamps, not bad with battlesphere, welders and riddlesmiths if needed.

Vault+key it's quite obvious, as most most broken blue cards. 3 x hurkyl's it's needed because null rod and spheres are quite annoying, and because with riddlesmith hurkyl's gets hilarious.

I didn't include brainstorm intentionally, but I can be wrong. This deck is really fast and I see brainstorm more as a control card. If removing sculptor+tops, brainstorm should get in.

And finally black is out. Well, this if the more obvious error after testing the deck. Will is absurd with so many discarded moxen, but demonic and vampiric are just ok.

Finally deck looks like that:

weld or fiction

manabase - 26
4 volcanic island
1 tolarian academy
6 fetchlands
4 island
5 moxen
1 black lotus
1 sol ring
1 mana crypt
1 mana vault
2 mox opal

creatures - 10
4 goblin welder
4 riddlemith
1 myr battlesphere
1 anger

spells - 24
1 sensei's diving top
2 voltaic key
1 time vault
1 memory jar
3 hurkyl's recall
4 force of will
1 brainstorm
1 ancestral recall
1 time walk
1 thirst of knowledge
1 empty the warrens
4 fact or fiction
1 tinker
1 demonic tutor
1 vampiric tutor
1 yawgmoth's will


Anger finally gets in, since welders and etw become instant win most the time. BSC is not in but should be tested instead battlesphere, although it can't be welded.


Drain does not fit here, but FOF does not really need it, since most of the time deck generates enough mana. I maybe would like more artifacts (I'm considering lodestone, really), but I would need to test it a lot more.

[diopter]

Frankly Riddlesmith is terrible.

---

What we need to settle on is the game plan. 4x Scroll Gifts had a game plan. Early Ancestral with protection, followed by Gifts with protection, win.

This deck can't have the same game plan. There is currently no idea for a consistent T1/2 play that can let you accumulate resources towards T3 EOTFOFYL. We either need to:
1.) Find such an idea (Confidant? Impulse? etc.) *
2.) Stick to the wall-wall-wall approach.
3.) Design towards T2 EOTFOFYL

* [another reason why I dislike Snapcaster Mage - its impact is limited in the first two turns. Great on Turn 3 (and forward) but it will end up consuming your mana on that turn too, rather than the early play of a guy like Confidant which you can sink otherwise useless T1 mana into, and gives you resource advantages sooner. But I will probably end up testing Snapcaster in FoF anyway since one of the problems I have noticed is not having enough gas in the first 11 or so cards]

Now if we stick to the second gameplan, wall-wall-wall, we need to think about what helps us get to T3 EOTFOFYL. If you use Mana Drain as your primary defense, then Spell Pierce, surely, is the better defensive 3rd counter over Mental Misstep. Especially in the mirror. You're not built to take advantage of the tempo boost like Gush can, you don't have the Confidant or the Duress or the Gush into bomb with floating mana. You're better off playing the most effective counter you can. Flusterstorm is also decent if you expect fewer Shops. Certainly about as dead as Misstep is in that matchup, and a better fit in your early game plan.

However if you want to move away from Mana Drain as the wall then the natural choice is to go to more proactive disruption aka Duress/Thoughtseize *. In which case Mental Misstep is much better since you can also occasionally get earlier protected Facts and then an primarily offensive counter like Misstep is gold.

* [4 Mana Drain + 3-5 non-Drain reactive disruption > 7-9 non-Drain reactive Disruption]

Of course if you anticipate seas of REBs then Missteps are the perfect counter-tactic but that is more of a sideboard discussion which we should try to stay away from until it is determined what the actual best shell is.

[desolutionist]

I think I've got it!

One of the commonly most unsatisfying occurences with gushbond had been drawing a bunch of cards, generating mana, to only stick a Jace and pass the turn.  I believe a full set of Fact or Fictions (replacing Jace) contributes to the Gushbond engine; it digs five cards, getting to to the next Gush, FoF, Lotus, Will, Ritual, etc. so much easier.

This is heading in the right direction:

1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
4 Force of Will
1 Imperial Seal
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Fastbond
4 Gush
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mana Crypt
1 Sol Ring
2 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Flooded Strand
4 Polluted Delta
1 Island
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Fact or Fiction
4 Dark Ritual
1 Regrowth
1 Timetwister
1 Wheel of Fortune
3 Duress
1 Volcanic Island

I'm only posting this because there is a possibility that I won't be able to attend waterbury... this deck is the real deal

[Cruel Ultimatum]

Do you think past in flame has a place in the deck? Gushbond gets you the mana, so you can cast it/flash it back if its flipped off FoF

[bluemage55]

Do you think past in flame has a place in the deck? Gushbond gets you the mana, so you can cast it/flash it back if its flipped off FoF

Why would you want to run that junk when you're already fueling yourself for a lethal Yawg Will?

[desolutionist]

Now I just need to make it more Sphere friendly and resilient; I'll probably cut the draw7s.  I've switched the 4th Preordain for another Island.  I've thought about Past in Flames but that only works with Ritual and FoF, not Gush.

[Purple Hat]

maybe cut the draw 7's for cobras? accelerating into turn 2 fof with mana available is pretty sick. 

[serracollector]

I have been testing an FOF deck, but it is far different from your guys ideas.

At first i tested the turbotezz, utlizing 3 grim monolith, 3 voltaic Key, 4 FoF, 4 Tezzeret, and 4 mana drain, 4 Force as my only Counters.  It got enough turn 1, 2, and 3 wins, that the additional counters didn't seem necessary, you simply powered out an EOT FoF, to get your tezz/tinker/tv/plethora of other broken cards to lead to one of those 3.  It worked very well, but abused FoF to find cards, not just get CA.

I am now working on a 2nd deck that is just UG, and uses the syngergy of FOF, Edric, Lotus Cobra, and Green Sun's Zenith.

The goal is to get a first turn Cobra, then to cast a GSZ for Edric, and start getting CA, then using the draw you get off Edric/Cobra's to cast FOF to consistenyl keep your hand full of counters (whichever package you want to run, I personally run 15 atm, 4 force, 3 pierce, 3 drain, 3 mental misstep, 1 misdirection, 1 mindbreak trap.

So the GSZ aren't dead draws, I also run some utility creatures like trygon predator, and vexing shusher. 

The deck doesn't have many explosive "I win" turns, but is the closest I have been able to get to the FOF BBS days of old.  Edric turns all your creatures into Ophidians, and they get to do damage.  Between Edric, and FOF, I "usually" can keep enough counters in hand to keep my opponent from winning til I get the job done with attacks.

[diopter]

Gush intersecting Fact is a decent concept. In two fisted testing you can get a huge reach into your deck, but I end up not liking Rituals as the mana engine. Too dead against a wide variety of Shop openers and achieving 10 storm *and* accessing Tendrils is not a reliable plan. You need Fastbond most of the time. Though obviously if you commit to the Ritual plan, Necro is a must include.

For me it all comes back to the paths of least resistance, that is Tinker/Colossus or Vault/Key. I've been testing Fastbondless scenarios and digging 7 cards deep on turn 3 more reliably opens up the 11/11 play over Tendrils, assuming of course your spells resolve. Not *quite* sure it is better than Gush into Jace since whiffing on FoF ends up being horrible for you whereas whiffing on Jace is not as big a deal. The dissynergy between Fact chaining and Gush alt cost is one of the main disadvantages of the Gush/Fact hybrid.

So with the gameplan in mind of: turn 1/2 disrupt + lay groundwork for turn 3 Gush into Fact (or Fact into Gush) [or the pipedream, Fact into Fact], I've been trying out the following list:

7 Fetchland
2 Island
2 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Tolarian Academy

1 Black Lotus
3 Mox on-color
2 Grim Monolith
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Sol Ring

1 Blightsteel Colossus
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Tinker
1 Time Walk
1 Yawgmoth's Will

1 Ancestral
1 Brainstorm
4 Gush
1 Fastbond
4 Fact or Fiction
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Regrowth
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Imperial Seal

4 Force of Will
4 Thoughtseize
2 Trygon Predator
2 Hurkyl's Recall

Fastbond is still incredibly important for this deck but less so than the storm version. Out of all the mana engines available, I end up preferring Tezz Monolith as it powers your primary win condition, Tinker. The Trygon/Hurk combo is just test material vs. Shops.

[bluemage55]

I am now working on a 2nd deck that is just UG, and uses the syngergy of FOF, Edric, Lotus Cobra, and Green Sun's Zenith.

The problem I see with this is that Fact doesn't actually synergize with the Edric/GSZ route that well.  I’d go with a UBG route so that you can have Bob to set you up for the midgame Fact play, instead of counting on drawing both the resources to both resolve and protect Edric or Fact.  Also, I would recommend Life from the Loam in conjunction with Wastelands, as this synergizes well with both Fact and Lotus Cobra.

I’d suggest something like this:


1  Island
4  Fetch
1  Strip Mine
1  Tropical Island
3  Underground Sea
4  Wasteland

7 SoLoMoxen
1  Lotus Petal
4  Lotus Cobra

4  Daze
4  Force of Will
4  Thoughtseize

1  Ancestral Recall
1  Brainstorm
4  Fact or Fiction
4  Dark Confidant

1  Mystical Tutor
1  Demonic Tutor
1  Vampiric Tutor

1  Echoing Truth
1  Diabolic Edict
3  Trygon Predator

1  Time Walk
1  Life from the Loam

[diopter]

Edric and Zenith and Loam are no good.

4 Tezz + 4 Fact + 4 Drain is marginal, did you do any two fisted testing at all on that? It's uphill all the way vs Stax, you have no meaningful way of interacting with their standard openings until, what, turn 3? [i.e. Fact through Spheres to dig for answes]  By then it's too late.

[desolutionist]

I've been taught by Shop maniac, Nick Detwiler, that Trygon Predator is a poor countershop strategy.  This is because it is expensive and multicolored and it is easily dealt with by Dismember or Phyrexian Metamorph.  You'd often have to burn a Black Lotus to put it into play -- it just isn't worth it.  I also would only play 1 Hurkyl's Recall in the maindeck.  Maybe -2 Trygon Predator, -1 Hurkyl's Recall +1 Nature's Claim, +1 Ancient Grudge, +1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor?

I like Mana Vault a lot and am surprised by your inclusion of Grim Monolith over Mox Pearl and Mox Ruby, but it could potentially be very strong.

[Prospero]

I've been taught by Shop guru, Nick Detwiler, that Trygon Predator is a poor countershop strategy.  This is because it is expensive and multicolored and it is easily dealt with by Dismember or Phyrexian Metamorph.  You'd often have to burn a Black Lotus to put it into play -- it just isn't worth it.  I also would only play 1 Hurkyl's Recall in the maindeck.  Maybe -2 Trygon Predator, -1 Hurkyl's Recall +1 Nature's Claim, +1 Ancient Grudge, +1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor?

I like Mana Vault a lot and am surprised by your inclusion of Grim Monolith over Mox Pearl and Mox Ruby, but it could potentially be very strong.

There, that's much better.  

I may be maniacal, but hey, let's not advertise that to the ignorant, OK?

[diopter]

Monolith for me represents an anti-Sphere measure that doesn't totally suck elsewhere. It's clunky, and doesn't enable T2 Tinker, but at the very least you get more than you put in. Pearl/Ruby are fine cards and would likely be the right choice for a Tendrils gameplan.

I'm usually hesitant to splash red at all as I like to play it a little more conservative on the mana side. That said Grudge is powerful. I'd consider it main if REBs postboard against all flavors of the Gush or Fact mirrors also proved to be good (thus justifiying the red splash). I suspect that would be the case since the color mana requirements aren't as daunting on your fundamental turn (U for Fact, then U/B usually post-Fact, meaning you have access to the R you need). But you could get screwed requiring at least B and R (and hopefully G) at at different stages in the first three turns.

Rods and Revokers are definitely still nemeses, I wonder if a Fish shell with Stony Silence/Teeg would cause problems? I haven't tested much against any Fish variants.