[Premium Article] DOOMSDAY RETURNS: How to Build Doomsday Piles and Win in T1

[Smmenen]

What are your thoughts on using Energy Flux in the board over the Realms as an alternative? I understand that it doesn't wipe out their board immediately on your turn like the Realms do, but it does provide a way of ensuring that those Sphere effects won't prevent you from playing spells on their turn (Like an EOT Hurkyl's for example).

The problem with Flux is that Realm and Hurkyl's work independently, whereas Flux is not a plan by itself.   Realm clears the board, and allows you to Doomsday or Gushbond/Will.   Flux allows you to build towards either one, but not execute it by itself. 

My Workshop sideboard plan is stronger than yours (going up to 4 Hurkyl's, adding two lands, and 3 Realms) post board.

You're arguing that 3x Realm and an Island is better than 3x Steel Sabotage, a bunch of artifact mana, and Tinker->BSC.

And by a "bunch" of artifact mana, you actually mean a few.

And yes, actually, it is.  I'm repeating myself, but it's better first because it's just a better plan for winning.  And it's better because it gives you room for Dredge hate.  You can't be a serious tournament Doomsday deck without Dredge answers.  Your plan for 'racing dredge" is not only unrealistic, it reflect a lack of understanding of how the format works in tournament settings.  

Since you've cut Dark Ritual, this is like debating Cat-Stax sideboard slots with someone who cut Lodestone Golem.  The intelligence of the cut aside, fewer Spheres and butts greatly shift the deck's priorities.

That's funny; every single one of my teammates -- Paul Mastriano, Brian Demars, Kevin Cron, etc., all immediately recognized that my cutting Dark Rituals was correct, and the final touch that made this deck really good.   Paul sort of viewed it as the brilliant counter-intuitive insight that actually made this deck insane.  

[AmbivalentDuck]

You can't be a serious tournament Doomsday deck without Dredge answers.  Your plan for 'racing dredge" is not only unrealistic, it reflect a lack of understanding of how the format works in tournament settings.

You make a universal claim ignoring evidence: emidln just split a tourney with exactly the dredge-hate free sideboard we describe.  And without the benefit of Maniac!  If this isn't "No true Scotsman," I'm not sure what is.

That's funny; every single one of my teammates -- Paul Mastriano, Brian Demars, Kevin Cron, etc., all immediately recognized that my cutting Dark Rituals was correct, and the final touch that made this deck really good.   Paul sort of viewed it as the brilliant counter-intuitive insight that actually made this deck insane.

By contrast, two people who have actually won tournaments with Doomsday think you've built something suboptimal.  The lawyer in you will probably want to respond by saying your appeal to authority is better.  The engineer in me has no desire to bandy logical fallacies with a lawyer who demonstrates little interest in empirical evidence when it comes to this matter.

[Joblin Velder]

This is my new favorite thread.

[Womba]

People believing that their decks don't need a sideboard plan/cards for Dredge are pretty much the reason it keeps winning tournaments. I am fine with everyone using the logic they can consistantly race dredge...Makes deck selection a lot easier for me....

[Smmenen]

You can't be a serious tournament Doomsday deck without Dredge answers.  Your plan for 'racing dredge" is not only unrealistic, it reflect a lack of understanding of how the format works in tournament settings.

You make a universal claim ignoring evidence: emidln just split a tourney with exactly the dredge-hate free sideboard we describe.  And without the benefit of Maniac!  If this isn't "No true Scotsman," I'm not sure what is.

That's funny; every single one of my teammates -- Paul Mastriano, Brian Demars, Kevin Cron, etc., all immediately recognized that my cutting Dark Rituals was correct, and the final touch that made this deck really good.   Paul sort of viewed it as the brilliant counter-intuitive insight that actually made this deck insane.

By contrast, two people who have actually won tournaments with Doomsday think you've built something suboptimal.  The lawyer in you will probably want to respond by saying your appeal to authority is better.  The engineer in me has no desire to bandy logical fallacies with a lawyer who demonstrates little interest in empirical evidence when it comes to this matter.

Your deck has no Dredge hate.  Nor does it have Mental Misstep.  It cannot be optimal. 

[JACO]

You can't be a serious tournament Doomsday deck without Dredge answers.  Your plan for 'racing dredge" is not only unrealistic, it reflect a lack of understanding of how the format works in tournament settings.

You make a universal claim ignoring evidence: emidln just split a tourney with exactly the dredge-hate free sideboard we describe.  And without the benefit of Maniac!  If this isn't "No true Scotsman," I'm not sure what is.

That's funny; every single one of my teammates -- Paul Mastriano, Brian Demars, Kevin Cron, etc., all immediately recognized that my cutting Dark Rituals was correct, and the final touch that made this deck really good.   Paul sort of viewed it as the brilliant counter-intuitive insight that actually made this deck insane.

By contrast, two people who have actually won tournaments with Doomsday think you've built something suboptimal.  The lawyer in you will probably want to respond by saying your appeal to authority is better.  The engineer in me has no desire to bandy logical fallacies with a lawyer who demonstrates little interest in empirical evidence when it comes to this matter.

First of all, the in 5 round 22-man tournament that Brandon split last month with Doomsday, he didn't play against Dredge. It's much easier to play the "dodge Dredge or accept one loss to it in a tournament" when you only need 3 match wins to advance to Top 8. That's not discounting his accomplishment, but realizing tournament context is kind of important. I don't know who else has won a tournament wtih Doomsday lately, so please point me to the list or top 8 so I can peep it for reference.

The second point I wanted to bring up is for the people who think that Doomsday will be "as fast or faster" than Dredge, realize that in a typical game against Fatestitcher/Sun Titan Dredge (which I consider industry standard at this point), by turn 2 most of the time you will be dead and/or have no relevant hand left in most games. So to effectively combat that you need to either be on the play and kill them on your turn two, or if you're on the draw essentially have gone off turn 1 (before their turn 2).

So to combat that, what do you need as the Doomsday player? If you're playing Brandon's version with Dark Ritual and planning to be "as fast or faster," you essentially need a way to kill them on turn 1 or turn 2. To do that you either need to have Dark Ritual (or Black Lotus) plus Doomsday in your opener (as well as the appropriate mana to profit, as well as Probe or whatever other draw spell you would need to chain them out), or you have to have a topdeck tutor for each missing piece plus Probe essentially. Depending on the game state, in most cases you would probably need to be using a non-pass the turn pile and have the ability to fully execute your combo.

There are many other permutations that will get you there, like having Fastbond plus Gushes (and the appropriate mana), but by and large you're relying on Ritual + Doomsday + mana and possibly Probe, in every opener. The statistical analysis of this would make a great article all by itself (Brandon?!), but I don't have time to do the math right now, and it's possible I'm missing something, but let's just say I am highly skeptical of your odds in that case.

[emidln]

Fwiw, that list looks like it absolutely destroys anything that can't fight a resource war with artfiacs/enchantments/waste effects. Note that waste effects will become relevant as they push you more into needing Fastbond (typically difficult to do as resource denail decks offer a clock) or delays you significantly (you can Gush to save your Underground Sea, but now you're 1-2 additional turns away from casting Doomsday. This is probably why you win with Gushbond much more frequently than I've observed with a Dark Ritual list (although I definitely have Gushbond kills).

As far as fighting workshops, I've observed that to consistently win, I needed the following against workshops postboard:


15 land including 3 basic islands
3 moxen, 1 mana crypt, 1 sol ring
3 Steel Sabotage
4 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Tinker, 2 Doomsday
2 Dark Ritual

Steel Sabotage and mana are not as flashy of a plan as Teferi's Realm, but they allow you incremental (and importantly castable) solutions to get to a point where you can cast Hurkyl's Recall or a bomb like Tinker or Fastbond in the face of a good workshop draw. The good draws against Doomsday are more punishing to the mana via spheres, which is exactly where Realm is the worst. If they only lead on Chalice or Null, you can blow them out with Realm, but if they start layering sphere effects your 3 mana spell is finished.

If you drop below 17 disruption spells in the maindeck, you'd be able to extend the sideboard space to help fight the workshop matchup.

Jaco, if you'd like we can talk about an article on statistical likelihood of particular openings, but I'll just go ahead and note that you basically need one of each of these categories for the turn 2 kill:

Doomsday or Fastbond + Gush or Necro or Tutor
Dark Ritual or Black Lotus or Fastbond + Gush or 2 lands + Petal/Jet or Tutor

If you can go for a pass the turn pile that's fine right there. Otherwise, you need a draw spell. Any will do, but Recall/Brainstorm/Gush/Probe are obviously a lot better than Preordain/Ponder/Walk/DT

It's worth noting that double tutor probably won't win the game unless you have a ton of mana and both tutors aren't topdeck tutors.


Jaco, also worth noting in the 6 rounds I had to play, I killed by turn 2 6 times via Doomsday, Necropotence, and Blightsteel Colossus.

[Smmenen]

Steel Sabotage and mana are not as flashy of a plan as Teferi's Realm, but they allow you incremental (and importantly castable) solutions to get to a point where you can cast Hurkyl's Recall or a bomb like Tinker or Fastbond in the face of a good workshop draw. The good draws against Doomsday are more punishing to the mana via spheres, which is exactly where Realm is the worst.

I don't think you appreciate how Realm works.  It's as flashy as Trygon Predator (that is to say, not flashy at all), and works the same way.   It's a proactive answer you deploy very quickly in the game, not a reactive answer like Hurkyls.   If I had more green, I'd play Trygons instead.  But Realm is merely what Trygon was in my Bob/Gush deck.  

The point is that Realm is not something you play in a Sphere heavy board. It's something you play after you Force or Spell Pierce or Thoughtseize the first Sphere, and then play, with, say one Sphere in play, like Trygon.

I tried a ton of plans, and I tested and tested and tested until I had a plan that was beating Workshops a solid majority of the time, without sacrificing sideboard space for the Dredge matchup, which you have, imo, imprundently, done.  

[emidln]

Steel Sabotage and mana are not as flashy of a plan as Teferi's Realm, but they allow you incremental (and importantly castable) solutions to get to a point where you can cast Hurkyl's Recall or a bomb like Tinker or Fastbond in the face of a good workshop draw. The good draws against Doomsday are more punishing to the mana via spheres, which is exactly where Realm is the worst.

I don't think you appreciate how Realm works.  It's as flashy as Trygon Predator (that is to say, not flashy at all), and works the same way.   It's a proactive answer you deploy very quickly in the game, not a reactive answer like Hurkyls.   If I had more green, I'd play Trygons instead.  But Realm is merely what Trygon was in my Bob/Gush deck.  

The point is that Realm is not something you play in a Sphere heavy board. It's something you play after you Force or Spell Pierce or Thoughtseize the first Sphere, and then play, with, say one Sphere in play, like Trygon.

I tried a ton of plans, and I tested and tested and tested until I had a plan that was beating Workshops a solid majority of the time, without sacrificing sideboard space for the Dredge matchup, which you have, imo, imprundently, done.  

I don't think you appreciate how much 3 mana is in the face of decks that pack 17 sphere effects in Lodestone, Resistor, Thorn, Metamorph, and Trini, particularly given how stingy you are at not playing stuff like Sol Ring out of th eboard to help compensate. I don't disagree that Realm is fucking insane when you resolve it. The fact remains that you have to put it into play.

You're going to be on the draw in half of the games you play vs workshops. You'll have force in less than half of those games. You lose all of the remaining games becaues you can't play a 3 mana card when they're executing their gameplan.

[Smmenen]

Steel Sabotage and mana are not as flashy of a plan as Teferi's Realm, but they allow you incremental (and importantly castable) solutions to get to a point where you can cast Hurkyl's Recall or a bomb like Tinker or Fastbond in the face of a good workshop draw. The good draws against Doomsday are more punishing to the mana via spheres, which is exactly where Realm is the worst.

I don't think you appreciate how Realm works.  It's as flashy as Trygon Predator (that is to say, not flashy at all), and works the same way.   It's a proactive answer you deploy very quickly in the game, not a reactive answer like Hurkyls.   If I had more green, I'd play Trygons instead.  But Realm is merely what Trygon was in my Bob/Gush deck.  

The point is that Realm is not something you play in a Sphere heavy board. It's something you play after you Force or Spell Pierce or Thoughtseize the first Sphere, and then play, with, say one Sphere in play, like Trygon.

I tried a ton of plans, and I tested and tested and tested until I had a plan that was beating Workshops a solid majority of the time, without sacrificing sideboard space for the Dredge matchup, which you have, imo, imprundently, done.  

I don't think you appreciate how much 3 mana is in the face of decks that pack 17 sphere effects in Lodestone, Resistor, Thorn, Metamorph, and Trini, particularly given how stingy you are at not playing stuff like Sol Ring out of th eboard to help compensate. I don't disagree that Realm is fucking insane when you resolve it. The fact remains that you have to put it into play.

You're going to be on the draw in half of the games you play vs workshops. You'll have force in less than half of those games. You lose all of the remaining games becaues you can't play a 3 mana card when they're executing their gameplan.

People used that same argument over and over against Trygon Predator for a long time now in.  3cc Proactive Spells are not actually as difficult to play against shops as 2cc reactive spells -- even on the draw. 

Moreover, I did it within the constraint of having 6 anti-dredge cards.   If you don't have Dredge hate, your deck isn't real in modern Vintage.  

[dangerlinto]

People used that same argument over and over against Trygon Predator for a long time now in.  3cc Proactive Spells are not actually as difficult to play against shops as 2cc reactive spells -- even on the draw. 

Seems to me, however, that the difference between Realm and Trygon is that Trygon is immune to 4 of the Sphere effects Workshop is trying to lock you out with while Realm is not.

[Smmenen]

People used that same argument over and over against Trygon Predator for a long time now in.  3cc Proactive Spells are not actually as difficult to play against shops as 2cc reactive spells -- even on the draw.

Seems to me, however, that the difference between Realm and Trygon is that Trygon is immune to 4 of the Sphere effects Workshop is trying to lock you out with while Realm is not.

Yes, that's true, but the point is also true more generally.   3cc spells are playable against max sphere effects, whether they are creatures or sorceries (after all, they're advocating for Tinker as a plan) or enchantments.  I wouldn't have played it if they weren't.  

[diopter]

Shops have 12 Spheres. Your post board has 20 mana sources.

I agree a typical gamestate involves you killing the first sphere and then getting thrown under a second. And it looks like you will typically have 1.5 more mana than they have spheres. Your digging power is limited.

I have tested this scenario and your 2 mana answers are really the thing that helps you not get buried (and even then a win is no guarantee). Only half the time do you get to 4 Mana before they get to another lock piece, and only having a 50/50 shot in a post board scenario is not good enough.

I don't think you had to worry as much with your worlds list because you ran Confidant to change the math, your answer avoided 1/3 of the opponent's spheres and you had 3 rolls instead of 2 to win the match (due to your game 1 answers). Also, you had Tinker, which gave you the low-resistance Hurk->tutor->Tinker plan post board.

Here though, you are just giving up all that advantage. Rituals or no Rituals, Shop is an uphill battle, which will happen when you aim your entire gameplan at beating bluegoodstuff.dec. Which is fine, just concede the sucky matchup.

[Smmenen]

It's vital that decks like this have various game plans to interface Shops.   You can't just rely on reactive plans; you need proactive answers like Trygon Predator, Flux, Teferi's Realm, or others, AND reactive plans.  

The reactive plans, predicated on just deploying mana and Hurkyl'sing, have to be supremely efficient.  The proactive plans need not be as efficient, although they must not be inefficient.  

The diversity of plans is vital because of the diversity of game states with which you will be interfacing.  When you Force or counter the first sphere, there is often an early game opportunity (even more so if the Shop player has had to mulligan) to deploy a 3cc proactive answer.  These opportunities must be seized.  

T1 (on the draw) Fastbond, land, Gush, Teferi's Realm after Forcing their turn one threat must be seized, for example.  Relying exclusively or largely on reactive solutions does not allow a pilot to take advantage of these possibilities to win games.  

This deck's optimum sideboard plan, given the constraints of needing to defeat Dredge post-board, came down to the mixture I proposed in this primer, and implemented in the tournament.  In the future, I would even consider adding a 4th Realm to the sb because it is so good, if I could move one more Island to the maindeck, and therefore save one sb slot.

[dangerlinto]

People used that same argument over and over against Trygon Predator for a long time now in.  3cc Proactive Spells are not actually as difficult to play against shops as 2cc reactive spells -- even on the draw.

Seems to me, however, that the difference between Realm and Trygon is that Trygon is immune to 4 of the Sphere effects Workshop is trying to lock you out with while Realm is not.

Yes, that's true, but the point is also true more generally.   3cc spells are playable against max sphere effects, whether they are creatures or sorceries (after all, they're advocating for Tinker as a plan) or enchantments.  I wouldn't have played it if they weren't.   

I agree with that, but if your meta is a little more Shop-happy, this is likely to be a point of contention -  much more of the time, Realm will have a 25-33% extra premium added on to it's mana cost than Realm will.   If you feel  that shops is the deck to beat in your meta, that decision will weigh heavily.

That being said, in a roundabout way, it's brought me right back to your decision to remove Ritual from your line-up, which is probably positively affecting your ability to play realm, making the decision much more... symptomatic, for lack of a better word.  Without having played the deck, on pure theory, I can see how cutting Rituals for more permanents sources might have also brought about a more stable method to utilize Realm - maybe that wasn't the reason for cutting rituals in the first place, but I can see how it could have become an unintended benefit

[Smmenen]

Generally speaking, if your metagame is shop heavy, then this is not a deck for you.   I m made a calculation before the Waterbury that Shops would likely be at a 1.5 year low in terms of metagame presence, and that was why I played this deck over, say my Cobra deck, which I just won a tournament with, and has an amazing Shop matchup.    I just wanted a solid plan based upon testing, which is what I did.  

That being said, in a roundabout way, it's brought me right back to your decision to remove Ritual from your line-up, which is probably positively affecting your ability to play realm, making the decision much more... symptomatic, for lack of a better word.  Without having played the deck, on pure theory, I can see how cutting Rituals for more permanents sources might have also brought about a more stable method to utilize Realm - maybe that wasn't the reason for cutting rituals in the first place, but I can see how it could have become an unintended benefit

I played Teferi's Realm in my 2004 and 2005 Doomsday SB, and that Doomsday list had 4 Rituals.  The presence of Ritual -- or not -- had no bearing on my choice of Realm.  Realm is simply the best proactive answer for Dday, and here's why you need that kind of answer:

It's vital that decks like this have various game plans to interface Shops.   You can't just rely on reactive plans; you need proactive answers like Trygon Predator, Flux, Teferi's Realm, or others, AND reactive plans.  

The reactive plans, predicated on just deploying mana and Hurkyl'sing, have to be supremely efficient.  The proactive plans need not be as efficient, although they must not be inefficient.   The diversity of plans is vital because of the diversity of game states with which you will be interfacing.  When you Force or counter the first sphere, there is often an early game opportunity (even more so if the Shop player has had to mulligan) to deploy a 3cc proactive answer.  These opportunities must be seized.  

T1 (on the draw) Fastbond, land, Gush, Teferi's Realm after Forcing their turn one threat must be seized, for example.  Relying exclusively or largely on reactive solutions does not allow a pilot to take advantage of these possibilities to win games.  

This deck's optimum sideboard plan, given the constraints of needing to defeat Dredge post-board, came down to the mixture I proposed in this primer, and implemented in the tournament.  In the future, I would even consider adding a 4th Realm to the sb because it is so good, if I could move one more Island to the maindeck, and therefore save one sb slot.

[Stormanimagus]

Steve — I agree with your assessment that Realm is the best proactive answer to shops this deck can run (Especially because Predator is so easily answered now with Metamorph), but some things concern me.

1. Without artifact accel beyond what you run you will have trouble getting to 1UU or 2UU or 3UU (depending on spheres) in time. Also, why don't you run a single basic Swamp in the SB? Without Ritual isn't D-Day hard to get mana for at times?

2. Why are you so set on Hurkyl's Recall over say Steel Sabotage or Nature's Claim? I'm not sure you'll ever even get to 1U vs. Shops while under spheres. Sabotage can potentially counter the sphere or remove it for 1U to make way for your Realm next turn.

You yourself have stated before that Shops whole game-plan is to reset the game to turn 1 every turn for you so how do you expect to resolve a 1U instant at a relevant time? If you factor in Tangle Wire you are just getting blown out on the resource front and that 1U may as well be infinite mana. To me, Steel Sabotage accomplishes all of what you need at a smaller cost. Usually you just want to get rid of 1 pesky sphere early and then go for Realm. I think that maybe 2 Hurkyl's are warranted but I'd really consider Steel Sabotage and/or Nature's Claim. I think then I'd feel more comfortable with the Realm plan as supplement.

Just my 2 cents,

-Storm

NOTE: Also, it is kinda hypocritical of you to concede a poor match-up vs. Shops and then in the same breath accuse other players of not designing "real" Vintage decks when they choose to not address Dredge. Granted you are running a SB for Shops, but I don't think it is sufficiently good to get there more than 50% of the time.

[Smmenen]

Granted you are running a SB for Shops, but I don't think it is sufficiently good to get there more than 50% of the time.

I do.  My post-board game data (testing before the tournament) suggests that it is.   I wouldn't have played it if I didn't think that. 

[diopter]

If you are a 30/70 dog to Stax in game 1, to go 50/50 in the match you need to be have a 60/40 edge per postboard game.

If you are a 40/60 dog to Stax in game 1, to go 50/50 in the match you need to be have a 55/45 edge per postboard game.

You are really achieving such large swings in win%?

[Smmenen]

Well, obviously -- that's why I've dedicated so much of my sideboard to the matchup.  Half my sideboard is for Shops.   Obviously that's designed to generate a large post-board swing. 

But I don't understand why we are going on and on and on about this.   I've introduced this deck, written a primer on it, including how to build piles, and explained my sideboarding plans.   Obviously, I've decided to have sideboard cards for Dredge as well, and that constrains what I can bring in the Shop matchup. 

I've created and innovated this deck for public consumption and enjoyment.  If people don't feel that my sideboard plans are good enough; they can change them, change the deck, or play a different deck! I'm not forcing anyone to do anything.  Some people probably felt my Gencon Bob/Gush deck was geared too much for the Workshop matchup.  I'm simply saying that I endorse my plan over the alternative plan of No Dredge sb, and a bunch of cards that aren't actually that good IMO. 

My tournament report will provide more detail and testing analysis that will hopefully satiate those who want to know more about the Workshop matchjup.  Specifically, I've included 5 different Workshop Dday Piles I created in pre-tournament testing. 

[AmbivalentDuck]

But I don't understand why we are going on and on and on about this.

Because some people feel that thoughtful discussion on TMD can elevate the understanding and practice of Vintage.

[Smmenen]

But I don't understand why we are going on and on and on about this.

Because some people feel that thoughtful discussion on TMD can elevate the understanding and practice of Vintage.

You know what accomplishes that?  Reading my primer, which is 21 pages and does a darn good job of that. 

[diopter]

Well, obviously -- that's why I've dedicated so much of my sideboard to the matchup.  Half my sideboard is for Shops.   Obviously that's designed to generate a large post-board swing.

In the height of ravager affinity people would sideboard 8-12 anti affinity cards, claim matchup superiority and still lose. I find this to be a similar situation.

[Smmenen]

My testing shows otherwise.  It makes sense that  a matchup improves when u sb 7-8 cards.   

[diopter]

I guess. Shops can SB too, though Bluegoodstuff usually gets more utility than Shops out of its SB in that matchup.

But you're talking swings of 25 to 40% (!!!) in winning percentage. The gameplan of disrupt the first Sphere into Realm into your combo, I highly question the consistency of that happening especially on the draw and particularly with your lesser inability to mulligan into it due to fewer mana sources. The alternate gameplan of mana-drops into Realm isn't that awesome either, which I think we both agree upon (your Worlds list was good at mana-drops into Pred, but the math is way different there)

The other permutation of your gameplan, Hurkyl's into your combo, is pretty good though, and I endorse that highly.

Did you ever consider your testing flawed? I don't doubt your matchup improves but to the point where you win "a majority" of your Shop matches with this config... com'on.

I don't doubt you crush most blue decks though, especially a bunch of the horribly misbuilt ones floating around now.

Finally, you wonder why we're going on about this... I think it's pretty natural we're going to talk about your deck in the thread where you write about it.

[mistervader]

So. I took a hybrid of Duck's list with Smennen's and top 8'd with it, losing to a Doomsday Cobra Gush hybrid which kept me from advancing beyond top 8. I kept one Probe, two Missteps, and three Rituals as a weird compromise between the two lists. I didn't miss Ponder OR Necropotence at all. It was a nice balance, albeit I felt an extra MM would have been awesome. Had no idea what to cut at the time, though.

I feel too lethargic to do a full report, but in my meta where Dark Times existed, there were times I wished I had Chain of Vapor in my board, which I didn't have, as I followed Smennen's board except for 3 Steel Sabotage in lieu of 3 realms, as I didn't have access to those cards in time. Never saw shops during my matches, so Sabo had more utility vs Tinker.

Anyways, match results:

1. 2-1 versus WG hate, as I struggled against Arbiters in game 1, but managed to Doomsday into maniac on games 2 and 3. I liked the fact I needed only 1 turn to wait after my Ancestral got mm'd during game 2, thanks to my pile. During game 3, I had Flusterstorm ready for his PtE for my Maniac.

2. 2-0 versus Dredge. He opened with Bazaar, I opened with Fastbond into triple Gush into sheanigans into Tendrils. Broken. In game 2, I had a Leyline, and i ended up having two in play at some point, so I took my sweet time to win. I won via Tendrils in both games.

3. 2-1 versus Cobra Gush. First game, he choked on his DD combo, because he Gushed BEFORE the Maniac was in play. He Tinkered me out in game 2, then in game 3, I Doomsdayed before he could thanks to Duress effects and Flusterstorm.

I ID'd the next two rounds, although in casual gaming, I maniac'd out a Tezz deck twice.

In top 8, I misplayed my DD combo, but my opponent punted, too. He AR'd into his own DD stack, I AR'd him in response, thereby having him deck himself. He should've targeted me... My error was I Probed before I cast Recall, leaving me with2 cards after Gushing into my stack. Fail. Game 2, he aggro'd me with Cobra and Maniac due to attrition, and game 3, I got Blightsteeled again.

My learning is, I do want Ritual in the deck, but I also want Duress and MM and one Probe for a one land in play pile to still win with. However, methinks I should limit myself to two rituals rather than 3, since I don't need them beyond casting DD. Mental Misstep has been a godsend against first-turn Duress/Thoughtseize, so anything less than 3 is a mistake, in my opinion, but the speed of having a Ritual in hand really does help me smooth over some draws, so I'm keeping two Rituals in my update of the list. I still feel that the board needs reworking, though. I am fast enough to sometimes race Dredge, but maybe four hate slots could prove sufficient, so I have 2 slots to play with in the board, like adding a fourth Steel Sabotage/Teferi's Realm, then adding a third Xantid Swarm.

[cvarosky80]

Looking forward to the tourney report tomorrow. I'm very interested to see exactly what decks you were paired up against throughout the day.

[heiner]

I did some testing with Steven's list:

MM is nuts, 4 is the minimum
17 disruption spells are not needed/winmore. I took out the 2 pierces and I am still winning any game vs. control
I do like 2 rits in their place, they speed up the dec and also improve the yawgwill plan
The workshop matchup sucks. Of course, if you resolve realm you win, but I have almost never able to do so. Especially the 3rd game on the draw its simply not possible at least against the good (Kuldotha) WS lists (no crappy panther who does nothing).
I would say the percentage are like 30/70 preboard then 55/45 in game2 and maybe 49/51 game 3.
I haven't been able to come up with a good stax board. In my opinion you need full jewelry, 4 basics and 4 ingot chewer to stand a chance, so better play another dec in a field of shops.

[Smmenen]

I should note that I tested only against Panther lists.   Kuldotha doesn't seem to exist in the American metagame. 

[Smmenen]

Steel Sabotage and mana are not as flashy of a plan as Teferi's Realm, but they allow you incremental (and importantly castable) solutions to get to a point where you can cast Hurkyl's Recall or a bomb like Tinker or Fastbond in the face of a good workshop draw. The good draws against Doomsday are more punishing to the mana via spheres, which is exactly where Realm is the worst.

I don't think you appreciate how Realm works.  It's as flashy as Trygon Predator (that is to say, not flashy at all), and works the same way.   It's a proactive answer you deploy very quickly in the game, not a reactive answer like Hurkyls.   If I had more green, I'd play Trygons instead.  But Realm is merely what Trygon was in my Bob/Gush deck.  

The point is that Realm is not something you play in a Sphere heavy board. It's something you play after you Force or Spell Pierce or Thoughtseize the first Sphere, and then play, with, say one Sphere in play, like Trygon.

I tried a ton of plans, and I tested and tested and tested until I had a plan that was beating Workshops a solid majority of the time, without sacrificing sideboard space for the Dredge matchup, which you have, imo, imprundently, done.  

I don't think you appreciate how much 3 mana is in the face of decks that pack 17 sphere effects in Lodestone, Resistor, Thorn, Metamorph, and Trini, particularly given how stingy you are at not playing stuff like Sol Ring out of th eboard to help compensate. I don't disagree that Realm is fucking insane when you resolve it. The fact remains that you have to put it into play.

You're going to be on the draw in half of the games you play vs workshops. You'll have force in less than half of those games. You lose all of the remaining games becaues you can't play a 3 mana card when they're executing their gameplan.

I'm coming back to eat crow.

I did a bunch of testing last week -- exclusively focusing on Game 3 Scenarios where I was on the draw.

Before the Waterbury, I did all mixed games -- alternating between being on the play and the draw.   With THAT testing, my deck put up over 50% win percentages post-board.    However, when I went back and looked at the data set, it was because I was winning a strong majority of games in which I was on the play post-board.   When on the draw, my win % fell well below 50%.  

There are a number of problems, but casting Teferi's Realm is actually just one of the problems.  There are too many scenarios where Teferi's Realm actually hits play, but you can't assemble the Dday combo fast enough before they beat you down with Golem.  Realm works fine at clearing Spheres, even in Game 3 scenarios, but that often isn't enough to win.  The problem is that you'll often have Island, Island, Island, Sea in play with Realm, and can't cast Dday.  With Rituals, I can admit, you have fewer mana problems in terms of generating BBB post board.

I'm following leads on an alternative SBing plan, and plan to report all of my findings and results in a large article sometime later this month.    I'll likely have a tweaked Dday maindeck in that article as well.

In the meantime, Eternal-Central has combined this article and my Top 8 report into one "Combo platter" (at a discount) if folks are interested. http://www.eternal-central.com/?page_id=1619    FYI

I did some testing with Steven's list:

MM is nuts, 4 is the minimum
17 disruption spells are not needed/winmore. I took out the 2 pierces and I am still winning any game vs. control
I do like 2 rits in their place, they speed up the dec and also improve the yawgwill plan
The workshop matchup sucks. Of course, if you resolve realm you win, but I have almost never able to do so. Especially the 3rd game on the draw its simply not possible at least against the good (Kuldotha) WS lists (no crappy panther who does nothing).
I would say the percentage are like 30/70 preboard then 55/45 in game2 and maybe 49/51 game 3.
I haven't been able to come up with a good stax board. In my opinion you need full jewelry, 4 basics and 4 ingot chewer to stand a chance, so better play another dec in a field of shops.

I don't think Ingot Chewer is the way to go, but I agree with you that my game 3 is not good enough.  I have another plan I'm looking into and will test soon.