MLB Playoffs

[Bibendum]

I know every year we usually get a discussion about the playoffs going so I figured I would start it up with a pole and my predictions

Yankee's Vs Baltimore- NYY in 5. I think Baltimore will put up a good show but the Yankee's know how to Win.
Detroit Vs Oakland- Detroit in 4- Oakland might get one, but Detroit will wrap it up quick
Washington Vs St. Louis-  St. Louis in 5. I think a lack of experience might come back to haunt Washington but i think this series can go either way.
Reds vs. SanFran- Reds in 4. Pitching will be real strong and the Reds are real deep.

ALCS
Yankees vs. Detroit- Detroit in 7. It goes the full 7 wont be shocked if the Yankee's win but I think Detroit wins, sidenote, the winner of this series will win it all IMO.
St. Louis Vs. Reds- Reds in 6- Reds impressed me and I think they have better depth all around.

WS
Detroit Vs. Cincinnati- Detroit in 6- Detroit is the most well rounded team and I think they prove it.


Lets hear everyone elses thoughts (sorry for the quick write up on my phone!)

[Prospero]

ALDS:

Yankees over O's in 4

Tigers over A's in 4

ALCS:

Yankees over Tigers in 6

World Series:

Yankees over Nationals in 6


I'd do the NL, but I don't really care, and I think the Nationals win, so...

[Cody.TopDeckInsurrection]

I know every year we usually get a discussion about the playoffs going so I figured I would start it up with a pole and my predictions

Yankee's Vs Baltimore- NYY in 5. I think Baltimore will put up a good show but the Yankee's know how to Win.
Detroit Vs Oakland- Detroit in 4- Oakland might get one, but Detroit will wrap it up quick
Washington Vs St. Louis-  St. Louis in 5. I think a lack of experience might come back to haunt Washington but i think this series can go either way.
Reds vs. SanFran- Reds in 4. Pitching will be real strong and the Reds are real deep.

ALCS
Yankees vs. Detroit- Detroit in 7. It goes the full 7 wont be shocked if the Yankee's win but I think Detroit wins, sidenote, the winner of this series will win it all IMO.
St. Louis Vs. Reds- Reds in 6- Reds impressed me and I think they have better depth all around.

WS
Detroit Vs. Cincinnati- Detroit in 6- Detroit is the most well rounded team and I think they prove it.


Lets hear everyone elses thoughts (sorry for the quick write up on my phone!)

Good points but I think Washington pulls it out aginst st louis

[Smmenen]

ALDS:

Yankees over O's in 5

Tigers over A's in 3

ALCS:

Tigers over Yankees in 6

I'd do the NL, but I don't really care, and I think the Nationals win, so...

Sorry to say this to our NY friends, but the Tigers have the Yankees post-season number, having knocked them out both last year and in 2006.   I think the Tigers are just a bad matchup for the Yankees.

Also, it's hilarious to me how people in the Bay try to justify their hopes for the A's on the basis of how bad the Tigers' record was this year.    The record during the regular season doesn't matter.  The Tigers, like most veteran teams, did just enough to get to the post-season, and will now switch it on.

The Tigers have the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, and this year's MVP and Cy Young winner (Cabrera and Verlander will win respectively).

[Prospero]

ALDS:

Yankees over O's in 5

Tigers over A's in 3

ALCS:

Tigers over Yankees in 6

I'd do the NL, but I don't really care, and I think the Nationals win, so...

Sorry to say this to our NY friends, but the Tigers have the Yankees post-season number, having knocked them out both last year and in 2006.   I think the Tigers are just a bad matchup for the Yankees.

Also, it's hilarious to me how people in the Bay try to justify their hopes for the A's on the basis of how bad the Tigers' record was this year.    The record during the regular season doesn't matter.  The Tigers, like most veteran teams, did just enough to get to the post-season, and will now switch it on.

The Tigers have the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, and this year's MVP and Cy Young winner (Cabrera and Verlander will win respectively).

Yanks went 6-4 against the Tigers this year.  I feel fine.  Also, I feel confident that Sabathia can match Verlander (who hasn't been his superb self against the Yanks as he is against most other teams). 

Finally:

Mike Trout, WAR: 10.7
Miguel Cabrera, WAR: 7.2

Cabrera probably wins the MVP award, but he shouldn't.  Insane, given the year that he has had, but Trout was worth nearly 11 wins to the Angels.

[Smmenen]

Again, I think the regular season doesn't matter or is extremely misleading for veteran teams. Look what the Cardinals did last year.  It's just about getting in and then turning it on.  

Triple crown = MVP in my book, not these new fangled sabremetrics

[Cody.TopDeckInsurrection]

Again, I think the regular season doesn't matter or is extremely misleading for veteran teams. Look what the Cardinals did last year.  It's just about getting in and then turning it on.  

Triple crown = MVP in my book, not these new fangled sabremetrics

not necessarily getting in and turning it on but turning it on towards the end of the season and carrying that into the postseason (Like the cardinals). The only teams that had miraculous end of the seasons were oakland and baltimore but i cant see oakland beating the tigers now. If the orioles beat the yankees dont be surprised if they continue this crazy run and get to the world series.

[GrandpaBelcher]

Triple crown = MVP in my book, not these new fangled sabremetrics

I totally agree with this.

Also, I will cheer (perhaps in vain) for the Orioles, but the Nationals are sour grapes for me. I just can't like them for whatever reason.

[vaughnbros]

Yanks went 6-4 against the Tigers this year.  I feel fine.  Also, I feel confident that Sabathia can match Verlander (who hasn't been his superb self against the Yanks as he is against most other teams). 

That seems like a pretty close season record should make for a wonderful series!  I'd probably have to take the tigers in 7 though since they have been really hot lately.  It seems like the team that gets hot at the right time wins it all, not necessarily the best team, see the Cardinals last season.

Finally:

Mike Trout, WAR: 10.7
Miguel Cabrera, WAR: 7.2

Cabrera probably wins the MVP award, but he shouldn't.  Insane, given the year that he has had, but Trout was worth nearly 11 wins to the Angels.

That is one stat.  And one that IMO isnt very well devised, you get wins just for being a certain position and stolen bases are weighted way too highly.  A big thing for me is that Trout didn't make the playoffs, even though he had Pujols and a possible CY young winner, Jered Weaver, on his roster.  On top of that when going by traditional stats no one has had a better season than Cabrera in a long time.  The triple crown in hitting is something I personally thought I would never see n my lifetime he should be given the MVP for that.  

[Smmenen]

Again, I think the regular season doesn't matter or is extremely misleading for veteran teams. Look what the Cardinals did last year.  It's just about getting in and then turning it on.  

Triple crown = MVP in my book, not these new fangled sabremetrics

not necessarily getting in and turning it on but turning it on towards the end of the season and carrying that into the postseason (Like the cardinals). The only teams that had miraculous end of the seasons were oakland and baltimore but i cant see oakland beating the tigers now. If the orioles beat the yankees dont be surprised if they continue this crazy run and get to the world series.

My take is this:

The baseball seasons is ridiculously long.   It's way too long in my opinion, and probably should be cut by 30-40 games.   In any case, many veteran teams, like the Tigers, can't really muster the enthusiasm to play 100% night after night for 162 game season. 

For teams like the Tigers, who know they were in a weak division, and who've been to the playoffs before and who have some of the best players in the game, the regular season is simply about skating by.   It's about treading water until the end of the season, then making sure you are in the playoffs.   That's exactly what the Tigers did.

I fully expect them to turn it on in the playoffs, like they have done so far.   It's a really good thing that the Rangers didn't make it, because i think they are the Tiger's only bad matchup in the AL.   The Yankees will dispatch the Orioles -- who are too green for post-season play -- and will suffer the same fate to the Tigers they suffered last year and in 2006. 

Sorry

[Samoht]

Playoffs + Triple Crown > WAR - Playoffs.

That's the important equation. In the past, when the Triple Crown winner was denied the MVP award, it was because he was on an inferior team to a similar hitter who swung his team into the post season. It's really that simple.

[A.-1.]

I am still in an inconsolable pit of despair.

[Prospero]

Playoffs + Triple Crown > WAR - Playoffs.

That's the important equation. In the past, when the Triple Crown winner was denied the MVP award, it was because he was on an inferior team to a similar hitter who swung his team into the post season. It's really that simple.

Baseball is a sport in which the 25 guys on your roster, plus whatever call-ups from the minors you may have over the course of a year, have a tremendous impact.  No one player is strong enough to carry a whole team.  The rest of the team has to be good enough to get to the playoffs.  Trout's season was an historic one, and while Cabrera's was historic as well, I believe that Trout was the more valuable player.  Cabrera benefited from having a strong cast of players around him, while Trout suffered through having some bad players on his roster for longer than they should have been there (Bobby Abreu shouldn't have made the Opening Day roster).  

As far as how much we can reasonably expect from one player, I'd direct you to one of the greatest sites to ever grace the web:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/10/albert-pujols-was-not-good-enough.html

I respect that people have differing opinions, and I can understand how being close to a decision like this (as Angels fans and Tigers fans are) would potentially bias the people involved.  For whatever it's worth, I'm a Yankee fan who has no emotional investment in the Tigers or the Angels, so I don't think I'm engaging in any kind of homerism.  I am very much a sabermetrics guy, so while WAR isn't perfect (as nothing in life is perfect) I give it a fair amount of weight, and I do believe that Trout was the more valuable player.

As none of us are GMs, it doesn't really matter.  

[Prospero]

I am still in an inconsolable pit of despair.

Life could be worse, Rob.  You could be a Red Sox fan.  Then what?

That was a monumentally terrible call, but you guys have a great, young, team that is going to be a force for years to come.  Plus, I'm pretty sure that you're going to see the Cardinals exit stage left pretty soon.

[Metman]

Half the time does the Triple Crown winner win the MVP.  Regardless of who is statistically the better player, consideration of the MVP is subjective to those who vote.  Voters typically like the guys that are a great story, play for a contending team, or are viewed favorably in the press.  It's the reason Williams won two triple crowns and didn't win MVPs those years.  If age and salary weren't considered I would still take Trout over Cabrera.  Trout plays his position better and runs much better and has comparable offensive statistics.  I am guessing that if Trout batted third and had Pujols hitting behind him, we would see more RBIs out of him which would make his stock go up in the MVP voting.   

In the playoffs I like which ever teams have the best power pitchers.  If the Nationals had Strasburg they would be my lock in the National League, without him I still like the Nationals.  Without Melky Cabrera, I like the Reds over the Giants.  In the AL I like the Tigers over the A's and the Yankees v. O's matchup is a toss up.  The O's played well against the Yanks and I'm not convinced Sabathia and Pettite have enough gas left in the them to pitch on short rest over the next few weeks.  The O's didn't play well the last week of the season though.

[vaughnbros]

Regardless of who is statistically the better player, consideration of the MVP is subjective to those who vote.  Voters typically like the guys that are a great story, play for a contending team, or are viewed favorably in the press.

This is the only reason I think there is even a debate on who should be MVP.  Trout is a white American rookie.  Cabrera is an alcoholic Venezuelan.  You tell me which one people are going to subjectively lean towards.

Trout plays his position better and runs much better and has comparable offensive statistics.

Would you consider Michael Bourn or Albert Pujols a better player?  Because if runs are comparable to RBI's and stolen bases are comparable to home runs these players are statistically similar too.  And Michael Bourn is definitely a better fielder.

[Samoht]

Playoffs + Triple Crown > WAR - Playoffs.

That's the important equation. In the past, when the Triple Crown winner was denied the MVP award, it was because he was on an inferior team to a similar hitter who swung his team into the post season. It's really that simple.

Baseball is a sport in which the 25 guys on your roster, plus whatever call-ups from the minors you may have over the course of a year, have a tremendous impact.  No one player is strong enough to carry a whole team.  The rest of the team has to be good enough to get to the playoffs.  Trout's season was an historic one, and while Cabrera's was historic as well, I believe that Trout was the more valuable player.  Cabrera benefited from having a strong cast of players around him, while Trout suffered through having some bad players on his roster for longer than they should have been there (Bobby Abreu shouldn't have made the Opening Day roster).  

As far as how much we can reasonably expect from one player, I'd direct you to one of the greatest sites to ever grace the web:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/10/albert-pujols-was-not-good-enough.html

I respect that people have differing opinions, and I can understand how being close to a decision like this (as Angels fans and Tigers fans are) would potentially bias the people involved.  For whatever it's worth, I'm a Yankee fan who has no emotional investment in the Tigers or the Angels, so I don't think I'm engaging in any kind of homerism.  I am very much a sabermetrics guy, so while WAR isn't perfect (as nothing in life is perfect) I give it a fair amount of weight, and I do believe that Trout was the more valuable player.

As none of us are GMs, it doesn't really matter.  

I don't think Trout was actually more valuable. He didn't singlehandedly do the things that turned around the Angels.  Sure, his call up coincided with Albert turning it around, but I'm not sold that it was causation. His presence and numbers didn't create nearly as much of an advantage as the skewed WAR stat implies(a lot of the internal calculations overcompensate for actions that don't inherently lead to wins). Their pitching did very well (not to say Detroit has a poor rotation), and other hitters contributed. There were several sub-par hitters in the Tigers line up too, they just didn't get paid like Abreu or have the recognizable level of name.

Obviously we differ on opinion, but I too am a Yankee fan. I actually dislike Cabrera and like Trout personally. Setting that aside, Cabrera accomplished something that is exceedingly rare, and did such while playing meaningful games with the spotlight on him the entire time. The same can't be said of Trout. People are caught up with Trout's age and rookie status and not appreciating the magnitude of the impact of what Cabrera did. In the era of the pitcher (post PTE's), the Triple Crown was won. That means a lot.

[Smmenen]

ALDS:

Yankees over O's in 5

Tigers over A's in 3

ALCS:

Tigers over Yankees in 6

I'd do the NL, but I don't really care, and I think the Nationals win, so...

Sorry to say this to our NY friends, but the Tigers have the Yankees post-season number, having knocked them out both last year and in 2006.   I think the Tigers are just a bad matchup for the Yankees.

Also, it's hilarious to me how people in the Bay try to justify their hopes for the A's on the basis of how bad the Tigers' record was this year.    The record during the regular season doesn't matter.  The Tigers, like most veteran teams, did just enough to get to the post-season, and will now switch it on.

The Tigers have the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, and this year's MVP and Cy Young winner (Cabrera and Verlander will win respectively).

So far so good.

I will say a bit more on why I expect the Tigers to beat the Yankees.

First, the Tigers have better starting pitching.   Fister and Verlander will both pitch twice.   Max Scherzer looks good again.  The Tigers have both last year and this year's MVP, not to mention the fact that Verlander might win the Cy Young AGAIN this year, he's been that dominant.

Second, the Tiger's pitchers are strikehout pitchers.   The Yankees bats are slow and old.

Third, the Tigers have the MVP Triple Crown winner.

Fourth, the Tigers have a better 3 and 4 batter with Prince Fielder after Cabrera.

 

[Onslaught]

ALDS:

Yankees over O's in 5

Tigers over A's in 3

ALCS:

Tigers over Yankees in 6

I'd do the NL, but I don't really care, and I think the Nationals win, so...

Sorry to say this to our NY friends, but the Tigers have the Yankees post-season number, having knocked them out both last year and in 2006.   I think the Tigers are just a bad matchup for the Yankees.

Also, it's hilarious to me how people in the Bay try to justify their hopes for the A's on the basis of how bad the Tigers' record was this year.    The record during the regular season doesn't matter.  The Tigers, like most veteran teams, did just enough to get to the post-season, and will now switch it on.

The Tigers have the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, and this year's MVP and Cy Young winner (Cabrera and Verlander will win respectively).

So far so good.

I will say a bit more on why I expect the Tigers to beat the Yankees.

First, the Tigers have better starting pitching.   Fister and Verlander will both pitch twice.   Max Scherzer looks good again.  The Tigers have both last year and this year's MVP, not to mention the fact that Verlander might win the Cy Young AGAIN this year, he's been that dominant.

Second, the Tiger's pitchers are strikehout pitchers.   The Yankees bats are slow and old.

Third, the Tigers have the MVP Triple Crown winner.

Fourth, the Tigers have a better 3 and 4 batter with Prince Fielder after Cabrera.

 

Average Yankee Fan's Counterpoint:

[Metman]

Regardless of who is statistically the better player, consideration of the MVP is subjective to those who vote.  Voters typically like the guys that are a great story, play for a contending team, or are viewed favorably in the press.

This is the only reason I think there is even a debate on who should be MVP.  Trout is a white American rookie.  Cabrera is an alcoholic Venezuelan.  You tell me which one people are going to subjectively lean towards.

Trout plays his position better and runs much better and has comparable offensive statistics.

Of course people will gravitate toward the young white boy. I'm not saying it's correct or fair. I'm saying it's subjective.

Would you consider Michael Bourn or Albert Pujols a better player?  Because if runs are comparable to RBI's and stolen bases are comparable to home runs these players are statistically similar too.  And Michael Bourn is definitely a better fielder.

I think Pujols is the better player but not this year. But we are not talking about the better player over a career, we are talking about this year. Runs and RBIs are subjective statistics as are where and with which team they play for. Stolen bases don't compare to home runs, I think they are closer related to doubles because that is what they essentially are. A guy with 50 stolen based is in a way turning 50 singles into 50 doubles. Trout's ability to run also affects pitchers and defenses and indirectly creates oppotunities for the Angles that Cabrera doesn't bring to the Tigers.

I am a saber metrics guy and under those measures Trout was clearly a superior player. He created more runs and prevented more runs, which equates more wins, and nothing is more valuable than winning when measuring the Most Valuable Player.

[Smmenen]

Unbelievable baseball tonight. I feel bad for Jeter.  That was hard to watch.

[Metman]

I have despised the Yankees since the beginning, but I have the utmost respect for the players and what they do. Jeter is great for the game and the captain of baseball's, perhaps sports's, most storied franchise. I really hope that this isn't what ends his career.

It was very hard to watch.

[Cody.TopDeckInsurrection]

Well, this thread has been kinda dead so I'm going to receive it with the boldest prediction yet: sf 4-1 Detroit  ...mark my words

[vaughnbros]

Regardless of who is statistically the better player, consideration of the MVP is subjective to those who vote.  Voters typically like the guys that are a great story, play for a contending team, or are viewed favorably in the press.

This is the only reason I think there is even a debate on who should be MVP.  Trout is a white American rookie.  Cabrera is an alcoholic Venezuelan.  You tell me which one people are going to subjectively lean towards.

Trout plays his position better and runs much better and has comparable offensive statistics.

Of course people will gravitate toward the young white boy. I'm not saying it's correct or fair. I'm saying it's subjective.

Would you consider Michael Bourn or Albert Pujols a better player?  Because if runs are comparable to RBI's and stolen bases are comparable to home runs these players are statistically similar too.  And Michael Bourn is definitely a better fielder.

I think Pujols is the better player but not this year. But we are not talking about the better player over a career, we are talking about this year. Runs and RBIs are subjective statistics as are where and with which team they play for. Stolen bases don't compare to home runs, I think they are closer related to doubles because that is what they essentially are. A guy with 50 stolen based is in a way turning 50 singles into 50 doubles. Trout's ability to run also affects pitchers and defenses and indirectly creates oppotunities for the Angles that Cabrera doesn't bring to the Tigers.

I am a saber metrics guy and under those measures Trout was clearly a superior player. He created more runs and prevented more runs, which equates more wins, and nothing is more valuable than winning when measuring the Most Valuable Player.

Your sabermetrics have Michael Bourn being the clearly better player this year.

To me sabermetrics are more subjective than RBIs and runs.  Fielding and baserunning are by far the most subjective statistic in all of baseball, literally it's completely the discretion of the person watching the game.  Then sabermetrics uses these subjectively generated statistics on fielding, and base running and gives them a heavy weight.  If I was to build a team based on sabermetrics nearly my entire team would consist of 1 and 2 hole hitters.  Clearly the weights are off.  Everyone knows the most important spots in a line up are the 3 and 4 hole hitters.

Well, this thread has been kinda dead so I'm going to revive it with the boldest prediction yet: sf 4-1 Detroit  ...mark my words

This thread died because a lot of people seemed to be yankees fans and then the tigers dismantled them.  I think it's much more likely Detroit wins 4-1 than San Fran.  In your prediction you have Verlander losing a game.  San Fran has also only won 1 non elimination game this whole post season.

[Smmenen]

First of all, I had the most accurate prediction of anyone in this thread  

Secondly,  the Tigers can't beat the Cardinals, but I think they can beat the Giants.  This is going to be close.  I expect the Tigers to have the advantage in the AL park.  I think the Tigers will win the first, lose the second, and then win the next three at home.  I expect the Tigers to go 4-1 over SF. 

Finally, I am so excited because I get to go to the games in the Bay. 

[Cody.TopDeckInsurrection]

First of all, I had the most accurate prediction of anyone in this thread  

Secondly,  the Tigers can't beat the Cardinals, but I think they can beat the Giants.  This is going to be close.  I expect the Tigers to have the advantage in the AL park.  I think the Tigers will win the first, lose the second, and then win the next three at home.  I expect the Tigers to go 4-1 over SF. 

Finally, I am so excited because I get to go to the games in the Bay. 

Enjoy those games. Should be electric! But I think the giants are too hot to be stopped and we see a team like that every year. This year it's the giants. After crushing (arguably) the best pitcher in the league it's gona be hard to stop them.

[Cody.TopDeckInsurrection]

Wow that Cody kid really knows what he's talking about...

[BC]

Pretty boring World Series if you ask me.  The playoffs were interesting until this series.

[PhantomLotus]

Only if you don't appreciate amazing pitching, stellar defense, and grind-it-out baseball.

If you just want to see people smash the baseball for 9+ innings, then I guess it was boring.