- I missed this, you did too - it's the Dredge of Gatecrash

[MaximumCDawg]

I am so used to powerful milling effects only targeting your opponent that I completely missed the fact Wizards printed two more Hermit Druids in Gatecrash: Balustrade Spy and Undercity Informer.  PROVIDED you are not playing with any lands, they both mill your entire library for 3B.  Informer can mill through additional lands if you have Narcomeba's to spare.

They are already busy brewing this up over at MTG The Source:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?25386-The-Rogue-Hermit

This scares me.  A vintage deck with full ritual and artifact acceleration and EIGHT one-card win conditions?  It doesnt strike me as hard to design a deck that can reliably Unmask or Duress on turn 1, and then win on the spot.  Probably with the Angel of Glorys Rise / Azami / Maniac combo.

[Smmenen]

Oh crap.  That's too easy.  This might test the limit of this formats resilience to combo.  

It should be very easy to build a list that can consistently goldfish on turn 1 with some disruption like Unmadk/Duress/Cabal Therapy.  Leylime of the void can stop it tho.

[tribet]

Poor Hermit Druid. Summoning sickness rings like an horrible anachronism

[Stormanimagus]

Guys, easy to miss this non-bo. It says "land" and not "basic land." That is a huge difference and still makes Hermit Druid vastly superior cause you can still have a manabase of duals/cities with that deck. Sorry guys. Non-bo in Vintage.

-Storm

[Smmenen]

Dude, you don't understand. You use mana less belcher like shell. Why do u need lands? 

[gkraigher]

 Is there nothing more efficient than this?  Probably with the Angel of Glorys Rise / Azami / Maniac combo.

Seems like if you draw 1 of those cards you might get stuck not winning.  


Nevermind, you'll be fine if you are playing cabal therapy.  Might want to include 1 bridge from below in the deck as well. 

[evouga]

The speed advantage of these guys over Oath and Hermit Druid is huge. I have misgivings, though, about the 0-land manabase. How does the deck deal with Spheres? Leyline? Why not go straight Dredge and minimize your exposure on the stack?

[gkraigher]

Here's a shell for a deck.  I made it on cockatrice and looked at a lot of hands.  It either wins on turn 1 or does next to nothing.  It is really bad when its bad.  

This is not the optimal version of the deck, just a beginning.  

4 Dark Ritual
4 Chrome Mox
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Mox Opal
1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Undercity Informer
4 Cabal Therapy
1 Bridge from Below
4 Narcomoeba
1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Sol Ring
1 Azami, Lady of Scrolls
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Lotus Petal
4 Unmask
4 Cabal Ritual

It looks like it could use the draw 7s like wheel of fortune and timetwister. 

[Smmenen]

That's probably pretty close to where I'd start.  I'd also consider Summoner's Pact for more ESG.    You probably want some of the good cards like DT in there for good measure.  

[gkraigher]

summoner's pact only gets green creatures. 

[gkraigher]

I don't know about this deck.  It scoops to leyline of the void and has major trouble with force of will and sphere of resistance. 

If it wins, it wins on turn 1.  If it doesn't win, it looks awful.  It doesn't mulligan well either.  Since you are trying to get to 4 mana, you need a hand of 6-7. 

[Onslaught]

I'd probably want Serum Powder in a deck like this

[gkraigher]

serum powder is a direction to try.  Its great in dredge because you are only looking for 1 card.  Unfortunately you need multiple cards in this deck.

land grant for bayou might also be something.  but if that land is in your deck, you don't go off. 

[gkraigher]

Someone make a better deck than this.   Right now, its a fair deck due to inconsistency.  


4 Dark Ritual
4 Chrome Mox
4 Mox Opal
1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Undercity Informer
2 Cabal Therapy
1 Bridge from Below
4 Narcomoeba
1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Sol Ring
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Lotus Petal
4 Cabal Ritual
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Timetwister
1 Windfall
1 Alchemist's Apprentice
1 Necropotence
2 Manamorphose
1 Ancestral Recall

[Protoaddict]

Yawgs will could be an option, or past in flames. Mill deck, past in flames for rituals, tendrils as another wincon...
Would also think LED wants to be in the list.

The bigger issue this deck needs to deal with is how does it deal with a turn 0 leyline of the void or an tormods crypt on the draw. I think wishboard options might be the best way as anything in your deck would be vulnerable.

Yes this deck might be faster than dredge but right now it is far less resilient. it has almost no ability to play around hate and is much weaker up front to counterspells.

With these being printed though, I wonder what will happen first, these getting banned (or erattaed) or hermit coming back.

[Stormanimagus]

Yeah, basically autolosing to Leyline, Sphere, Thorn, Golem, Chalice, Force, Null Rod, Stony Silence etc. makes this deck even worse than Belcher IMO. Hermit Combo is just a much better deck cause you can run a manabase and good answer cards like qasali pridemage (via Green Sun's Zenith). People were comparing this to Hermit Druid in the first post and that is a completely erroneous comparison because they are vastly different cards.

-Storm

[MaximumCDawg]

Yeah, basically autolosing to Leyline, Sphere, Thorn, Golem, Chalice, Force, Null Rod, Stony Silence etc. makes this deck even worse than Belcher IMO. Hermit Combo is just a much better deck cause you can run a manabase and good answer cards like qasali pridemage (via Green Sun's Zenith). People were comparing this to Hermit Druid in the first post and that is a completely erroneous comparison because they are vastly different cards.

-Storm

Oh, come on, that's not fair.  The deck doesn't exist yet, we don't know the optimal disruption package, and you're just rattling off a list of cards that disrupt the combo.  Yes, and Null Rod disrupts vault-key and Rest in Peace disrupts Dredge.  Of course it does.

What is making me uneasy -- and I gather Steve as well -- is that they essentially printed two more copies of Charbelcher and made it cost 4 to win the game instead of 7.  That means the one-card win requires less draw / dig AND less mana generation.  So instead of a deck full of red rituals and cantrips, there is potentially space for protection or who knows what else.  The only saving grace is that the win still takes quite a few cards (4 narcs and 3 other creatures, minimum).  Maybe that will be enough from making this consistent.  But the point is that it seems much stronger than traditional Charbelcher right out of the gate.  It also seems faster than Dredge or Storm, provided a consistent list is developed.

Here's some other food for thought on building this deck.  A Bridge from Below or two seems like a big winner here.  It potentially lets you mill through lands (by sacing Narcos to Informer, still have enough creatures to Dread Return) and so allows you to run the Land Grant plan.  It gives you a viable alternative win condition with Informer if Dread Return fails somehow (4 narcos = 8 2/2 zombies).  It prevents your opponent from responding to your Cabal Therapy by killing your narcos / etc in an attempt to prevent you from having enough bodies to Dread Return.

I think we need to consider what is the smallest possible acceleration package that can generate 5 mana on turn 1 to free up space to protect the combo.  In fact, you could probably take a page from Two Card Monte and keep hands that require you to wait until your second turn, as long as your disruption is on-line immediately to address whatever hate might be lurking.

I don't think Hermit Druid is anything like these guys except superficially.  Yes, he can go into BUG control decks to give them a combo kill, but he has to stick around for a whole turn to do his thing.  You cannot explode on turn 1 with Hermit like you can with these guys, and if this deck is a thing, it will be a thing largely because of its speed.

[hvndr3d y34r h3x]

I just really don't like this card for some reason.

[Shax]

I actually do like these cards for some reason. Not one but TWO Black Hermit Druids? Legacy Cephalid Breakfeast is a thing, but now (since Hermit Druid is banned over there) they can try this Black approach to combo.

[gkraigher]

Alchemist's Refuge vs Azami, Lady of Scrolls

refuge is castable and lets you draw a card.  

azami, lady of scrolls lets you get around a swords to plowshare that would otherwise cost you the game.  you can tap both azami and lab maniac in response.  refuge will kill you if your opponent swords maniac in response.  

for that reason, i would assume 1 azami should be in the board.  

Edit:  Lightning bolt is a much more realistic threat than swords in Vintage.  Maybe Azami is the better card overall.   

[madmanmike25]

A win-con that only costs 4 mana and uses a landless Belcher mana base??  Sign me up.

[Protoaddict]

What is making me uneasy -- and I gather Steve as well -- is that they essentially printed two more copies of Charbelcher and made it cost 4 to win the game instead of 7.  That means the one-card win requires less draw / dig AND less mana generation.  So instead of a deck full of red rituals and cantrips, there is potentially space for protection or who knows what else.  The only saving grace is that the win still takes quite a few cards (4 narcs and 3 other creatures, minimum).  Maybe that will be enough from making this consistent.  But the point is that it seems much stronger than traditional Charbelcher right out of the gate.  It also seems faster than Dredge or Storm, provided a consistent list is developed.

The catch is you are trading off the mana generation needs to a deck that relies on the yard. Beltcher can win without doing anything but playing spells and never touching the yard. 5 mana sources -> thoughtsize -> empty the warrens or beltcher is a viable win. This deck does not have a way to deal with a first turn leyline as of now, and all those extra slots you just gained need to go towards hate cards for that and related hate cards.

I do wonder if this deck does not have potential as your starting deck, and then after game one you sandbag into a dark times list that does not use the yard. MAY be an option.

[Oath of Happy]

No one main decks leyine and you can board into etw/belcher to get around the graveyard effects

[Protoaddict]

Both dredge and darktimes have maindecked leyline in the past and be assured that if this deck happened they would again.

Siding into Beltcher seems like a bad idea though. Other than grave hate it is still weak against other hate both decks are weak against, hate that is all over the place like force and flusterstorm.

I am not saying no to the deck, I am saying I think someone needs to prove it because it just seems too glass cannon to me.

[gkraigher]

there is no reason to include belcher into the deck.  it costs 7 mana and 2 turns, this costs 4 mana and wins the turn it happens. 

[policehq]

Control with mana severance?

[Stormanimagus]

there is no reason to include belcher into the deck.  it costs 7 mana and 2 turns, this costs 4 mana and wins the turn it happens. 

Wait, why does Belcher cost 2 turns again? Last I checked, if you have 7 mana available Belcher is a 1-turn win (providing you don't hit land too soon).

-Storm

[policehq]

Divining witch can also be a sideboard plan.

[xouman]

WOW

If belcher has done good results in the past, this new approach surely deserves a try. My initial idea was running it around esg and ssg and manamorphose, chromatic spheres and lots of moxen, then rituals to get those creatures.
Gitaxian probe seems necessary, and probably pact of negation has a place in the 75 cards

Addressing spheres is a big problem. I'm afraid there is not a phyrexian mana shatter (a shatter for 2 red pyrexian mana would be great and not broken IMHO), and relying on spirits to make mana in order to play moxen seems too expensive. so chewers/claims are probably the best solution, even when they are not optimal at all.

while maniac seems the cheapest way to win, it's open to more hate, and maybe past in flames+y.will+tendrils is a bit more reliable... as long as you can find any source of mana (priest of urabrask is a human, so is priest of gix). In fact, reanimating that angel who returns all human into battlefield nets 24 mana providing you have those playsets of priests, and it dodges all creature hate... but this is surely a very bad idea.

[serracollector]

Couldn't you just fit in 4 wild cantor's?  And Tinderwalls?  Those get under thorns at least, and provide mana.  As does Blood Pet.  Maybe a more creature oriented version would work best?