Vintage Q & A request

[desolutionist]

I love to read good articles that expand my theoretical knowledge of the game.  One thing in my mind is what is better a "threat" or an "answer". (to put it simply)  Should I be playing Cloudposts (threat) to beat Razes (Answer).  Should I be playing Razes to beat Cloudposts?  What's the better strategy?

[TheWhiteDragon]

As a friend of mine once said, there are no wrong threats - only wrong answers.  When facing a BSC, that lightning bolt seems fairly useless.  When facing a tarmogoyf, hurkyll's looks really weak.  When against a smokestack or striplock, swords to plowshares is dead weight in your hand.  All of these threats will kill you or otherwise remove you from the game....but only the correct answers at the correct times will do anything.  It is typically better to run threats that are themselves answers (qasali, lodestone, revoker) unless an immensely big threat (BSC, tarm, precursor) because ending the game within a few turns IS an answer to later threats.  If you have a deck that is slower in establishing the threat (delver, weenies, etc.) it's good to have a smattering of versatile answers to get you through the resistance (counters, bolts, plows). If you have a deck that drops answers or ends the game with a fast threat immediately (golems/shops, storm, belcher) it's best to just go all out and have maybe 1 or 2 answer-alls (chain of vapor, etc.).

[AmbivalentDuck]

I love to read good articles that expand my theoretical knowledge of the game.  One thing in my mind is what is better a "threat" or an "answer". (to put it simply)  Should I be playing Cloudposts (threat) to beat Razes (Answer).  Should I be playing Razes to beat Cloudposts?  What's the better strategy?

Not to get too philosophical, but threats and answers aren't distinct categories. Consider that winning is the correct answer to most threats. Does that make Tendrils of Agony an answer to Blightsteel Colossus?  Similarly, is game 1 Leyline of the Void against Dredge a threat or an answer? Turn 1 Trinisphere?

[TheWhiteDragon]

Spheres and leylines are answers, not threats.  They don't win the game for you - they just prevent the opponent's threats from harming you.  Threats are things that win - answers are things that prevent loss.  As I stated before, and as you repeated, a fast threat is both, because it accomplishes both functions.

[ed0]

Threats and answers are two sides of the same coin.

Your deck follows a specific path to victory. Advancing you on that path is what threats do, hindering your opponent to advance on his path to victory is what answers do. In the end they are supposed to do the same thing: Allow you to reach the end of the path before your opponent does.

So the question of whether to pick a threat or an answer (and which specifically) depends on an analyses of which paths to victory are employed in a specific meta. If your selection of threats are unable to race a specific path with non-marginal use, you either need to use faster and/or more resilient threats or deploy answers that hinder that specific path.

[xouman]

Tinker->Bsc or lethal tendrils are no answers, just plain threats. Does a bigger threat act as an answer? Not for me, but it's debatable.

Some decks prefer threats, others prefer answers. Mud is a great deck based on proactive answers and a solid beating. Dredge is all about threats, as burning tendrils. Landstill is nearly all about answers, and most big blue decks have more answers than threats. Fish decks are a different thing, because they intend to play creatures that fill dual role.

I feel myself more confortable with answer cards, or just easy threating, but I see threats > answers, providing your strategy can overcome opponent's answers, just because one threat could potentially win the game, while answers themselves cannot. Nevertheless, the game is well balanced and I think that any strategy could be valid, since for any threat there is an answer. The key is play threats hard to answer, or all-around answers.

[desolutionist]

As a friend of mine once said, there are no wrong threats - only wrong answers.  When facing a BSC, that lightning bolt seems fairly useless.  When facing a tarmogoyf, hurkyll's looks really weak.  When against a smokestack or striplock, swords to plowshares is dead weight in your hand.  All of these threats will kill you or otherwise remove you from the game....but only the correct answers at the correct times will do anything.  It is typically better to run threats that are themselves answers (qasali, lodestone, revoker) unless an immensely big threat (BSC, tarm, precursor) because ending the game within a few turns IS an answer to later threats.  If you have a deck that is slower in establishing the threat (delver, weenies, etc.) it's good to have a smattering of versatile answers to get you through the resistance (counters, bolts, plows). If you have a deck that drops answers or ends the game with a fast threat immediately (golems/shops, storm, belcher) it's best to just go all out and have maybe 1 or 2 answer-alls (chain of vapor, etc.).

Based on this post, I'm concluding that "big blue" or in my case, 8Post, is the best deck to play simply because you don't have to play Razes (obviously useless against Stompy or Crop Rotation), just to be on an  even playing field.  This is the answer I was leaning towards, but its good to have some reassurance.  In the case of big blue being the best deck, I can drop an Ulamog's Crusher or Mulldrifter as a threat AND an answer against Goblins.  (Of course I'll still have to play some 1-for-1 removal cards as answers, which is one thing I wan't to avoid by NOT playing 8post, I could potentially change that using the card database however)

Not to get too philosophical, but threats and answers aren't distinct categories. Consider that winning is the correct answer to most threats. Does that make Tendrils of Agony an answer to Blightsteel Colossus?  Similarly, is game 1 Leyline of the Void against Dredge a threat or an answer? Turn 1 Trinisphere?

Another good point, Duck.  I was on the verge of seperating all cards into either threat, answer, or mana (x,y, and z), allowing me to play around with probabilities using math.  You haven't convinced me that I still can't do this to some degree.  (Tendrils is most definitely a threat) But I could see how a big guy like Ulamog's Crusher could be both a threat and an answer against the right deck.e o

I like some of the other ideas here, I don't have too much time to think it all over though (I just moved to Hawaii on Saturday).  I hope to be playing in my weekly Pauper tournament online tomorrow night, but I could very well miss it due to the time difference.  (I have an appt. at 2pm, which is 7pm EST lol)  I also hope you guys don't mind I discuss theory from a pauper standpoint. (Its the only other format where 4x Gush and 4x Crop Rotation is legal!!!)

[desolutionist]

Temporal Fissure is kind of neat, eh?  Against an opponent that makes land commitments, if your lands are better than their's, you can really exploit the difference.  

Here's a thought:

Does Wasteland make Cloudpost unplayable in vintage?  I don't think so.  One card for another; Children of Korlis for Tendrils of Agony

And not everyone plays wasteland