How would you play out this hand?

[Onslaught]

Game three vs. Bob/Jace control. You are running Keeper with 4 Snapcaster. It's turn two, and your opponent has a Polluted Delta in play and 5 cards in hand. Your board is Ruby, Volcanic Island, and Underground Sea - with a hand of Duress, Demonic Tutor, Mana Drain, and Jace.

What is your play?

If you Duress, you can strip a business spell and be relatively safe, though you are guaranteeing that if he has a Dark Confidant it will resolve. Duress also can gain info about his hand, clear out a counter, and allow you to DT into something explosive on turn 3.

If you pass the turn and hold up Mana Drain, you can answer most things he does, or at least draw out a FOW. Draining a Bob also sets you up for a really strong Demonic Tutor play on turn 3.

If you Demonic Tutor for Ancestral Recall and play it, you can be Flusterstormed, Misstepped, FOW, etc etc. Risky play, but big upside and with 4 Snapcasters in the deck you have a chance to quickly attempt it again if it is countered.

If you Demonic Tutor for Black Lotus (assuming he lets the DT resolve), you can then Lotus into Jace and completely dodge Flusterstorm and Misstep. You know he isn't playing Spell Pierce based on games 1 and 2, so this play means Jace is most likely going to resolve if he doesn't have a FOW and allows the DT to go through.

You have some high risk/high reward options, a very aggressive option, a defensive/passive option, and almost everything inbetween. How would you play out this scenario? I'll post saying what I did and what happened after a while, as to not influence lines of play by giving hindsight of how the game played out.

[A.-1.]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

[vaughnbros]

I think the only play I definitely wouldn't do is duress.  By doing that you are shutting off your ability to respond and not setting up your next turn.

I lean towards demonic into ancestral eot because of the ability to generate such a massive amount of CA.  If it resolves this should set you up for turn 3 Jace if your opponent plays something or turn 3 duress/drain if they don't.  If it doesn't resolve and you top deck a mana source you are still in a good position.  If it doesn't resolve and you don't draw mana you still have drain... overall this seems like a pretty powerful hand.

[Smmenen]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

That sounds like a good plan to me. 

[Samoht]

I Pass. I don't think it's really close if we're playing Keeper. Taking unnecessary risks isn't in our game plan.  DT is utterly crushed by Spell Snare and Flusterstorm. It also shuts off our Drain. This gives up a free turn to our opponent that we don't necessarily need to give. We are in a much better position to Drain into a Jace and DT the next turn if we so choose with more information. If our Drain is countered, we can then DT for the answer to whatever we tried to Drain.

Aside: 4 Snapcaster is almost certainly too many. 3 is pushing it.

[Commandant]

I Pass. I don't think it's really close if we're playing Keeper. Taking unnecessary risks isn't in our game plan.  DT is utterly crushed by Spell Snare and Flusterstorm. It also shuts off our Drain. This gives up a free turn to our opponent that we don't necessarily need to give. We are in a much better position to Drain into a Jace and DT the next turn if we so choose with more information. If our Drain is countered, we can then DT for the answer to whatever we tried to Drain.

Aside: 4 Snapcaster is almost certainly too many. 3 is pushing it.

This all day.

[d8dk32]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

That sounds like a good plan to me.  

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

[Samoht]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

That sounds like a good plan to me.  

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

First, you give away that you DT'd for Lotus. Second, you're basically committing to Drain post DT with Lotus which cements that you probably shouldn't be casting it in the first place. It is also a pretty clear indicator that your hand does have a Drain and does not have a Flusterstorm/Spell Pierce/Spell Snare. That's a ton of information to give away for very little return.

[vaughnbros]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

That sounds like a good plan to me.  

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

First, you give away that you DT'd for Lotus. Second, you're basically committing to Drain post DT with Lotus which cements that you probably shouldn't be casting it in the first place. It is also a pretty clear indicator that your hand does have a Drain and does not have a Flusterstorm/Spell Pierce/Spell Snare. That's a ton of information to give away for very little return.

I mean by passing with volc, sea, and a ruby and 4 cards in hand you are telegraphing you have drain or at least some other counter in hand.  This really is strongly dependent on who you are playing against and what is the read of the game.  If you feel they are going to be aggressive sure pass the turn with drain up.  If you feel they are going to be conservative tutor for lotus is the right call.  If you feel they don't have a counter, tutoring for acall is probably the right call.  There is a lot of information to be gained by playing your opponents patterns.  A blue versus blue match up is like poker, not chess.

[Samoht]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

That sounds like a good plan to me.  

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

First, you give away that you DT'd for Lotus. Second, you're basically committing to Drain post DT with Lotus which cements that you probably shouldn't be casting it in the first place. It is also a pretty clear indicator that your hand does have a Drain and does not have a Flusterstorm/Spell Pierce/Spell Snare. That's a ton of information to give away for very little return.

I mean by passing with volc, sea, and a ruby and 4 cards in hand you are telegraphing you have drain or at least some other counter in hand.  This really is strongly dependent on who you are playing against and what is the read of the game.  If you feel they are going to be aggressive sure pass the turn with drain up.  If you feel they are going to be conservative tutor for lotus is the right call.  If you feel they don't have a counter, tutoring for acall is probably the right call.  There is a lot of information to be gained by playing your opponents patterns.  A blue versus blue match up is like poker, not chess.

You could have Bolt, REB, Drain, Clique, Staticaster, Fallout, etc. Part of the allure of Keeper is that you could have almost anything, so they have to try and make plays based on that knowledge. Even with your 75 listed in front of them, the correct answer is much harder to come up with facing down 3 mana sources and 5 cards.

If you don't think they have a counter I'm pretty sure DT -> Lotus -> Jace is a stronger play than DT -> Recall.

I think it's much closer to Chess than Poker but that's a personal thing.

[d8dk32]

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

First, you give away that you DT'd for Lotus. Second, you're basically committing to Drain post DT with Lotus which cements that you probably shouldn't be casting it in the first place. It is also a pretty clear indicator that your hand does have a Drain and does not have a Flusterstorm/Spell Pierce/Spell Snare. That's a ton of information to give away for very little return.

I'm not really sure I follow. You DT for lotus and play it. Now you have a Volc untapped and a Lotus in play. The Volc telegraphs a 1cmc counterspell. Then on your next turn you can play Duress -> Jace. If you have to crack the Lotus to Drain something, then you can still play Jace off the Drain mana. You're setting up a powerful turn 3 play without sacrificing your ability to respond. You give away some info, but the only thing they really know is that you DT"d for Lotus. But I don't think it's enough to offset the turn 3 you set up.

Barring that line of play I think I'd just pass.

[Samoht]

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace? then you can crack the lotus to drain something if you need to and in that case you'll still almost certainly be able to play jace off the drain mana on your next turn, and maybe duress too if you draw another blue or black mana source.

First, you give away that you DT'd for Lotus. Second, you're basically committing to Drain post DT with Lotus which cements that you probably shouldn't be casting it in the first place. It is also a pretty clear indicator that your hand does have a Drain and does not have a Flusterstorm/Spell Pierce/Spell Snare. That's a ton of information to give away for very little return.

I'm not really sure I follow. You DT for lotus and play it. Now you have a Volc untapped and a Lotus in play. The Volc telegraphs a 1cmc counterspell. Then on your next turn you can play Duress -> Jace. If you have to crack the Lotus to Drain something, then you can still play Jace off the Drain mana. You're setting up a powerful turn 3 play without sacrificing your ability to respond. You give away some info, but the only thing they really know is that you DT"d for Lotus. But I don't think it's enough to offset the turn 3 you set up.

Barring that line of play I think I'd just pass.

By playing Lotus you signify that your open Volc isn't sufficient to interact at instant speed.

[d8dk32]

By playing Lotus you signify that your open Volc isn't sufficient to interact at instant speed.

I suppose.

You could have Bolt, REB, Drain, Clique, Staticaster, Fallout, etc. Part of the allure of Keeper is that you could have almost anything, so they have to try and make plays based on that knowledge.

Incidentally, with the play I suggested, you could conceivably have any of the cards you listed. But now I probably I sound a bit cheeky, which isn't really my intent. I concede that you are more experienced than I with the deck in question (since I avoid playing control decks almost as a rule) and so I expect your line of play indeed better. Just trying to understand why.

[Samoht]

By playing Lotus you signify that your open Volc isn't sufficient to interact at instant speed.

I suppose.

You could have Bolt, REB, Drain, Clique, Staticaster, Fallout, etc. Part of the allure of Keeper is that you could have almost anything, so they have to try and make plays based on that knowledge.

Incidentally, with the play I suggested, you could conceivably have any of the cards you listed. But now I probably I sound a bit cheeky, which isn't really my intent. I concede that you are more experienced than I with the deck in question (since I avoid playing control decks almost as a rule) and so I expect your line of play indeed better. Just trying to understand why.

You are representing the same things, but you are down a card in hand for a Lotus in play along with the 2 used mana sources, and have thus signified several things. The DT and hold plan forces them to think things that are advantageous. 1) You got a threat as opposed to a mana source. 2) You are comfortable behind a Volc, which represents the 1cmc cards I listed as well as Snare/Fluster. 3) They should likely extrapolate from that that they need to be able to interact with you and thus it puts pressure on them. By playing the Lotus, you alleviate a lot of that pressure. Of course all this assumes that DT resolves, which is obviously your best case scenario when entering the line.
 If it doesn't resolve, you lose the ability to Drain and the likelihood of landing Jace. By passing, you reveal nothing and leave your lines open to adapt to the opposing plays. You've made every land drop, have UU, have R, have 1UU, etc. For them, guessing your hand is very difficult at this point. Furthermore, Keeper is inherently a reactive deck. Throwing the first punch is only a good thing if it's a guaranteed knock out. This is far from that.

[A.-1.]

Just to clarify: Onslaught, is the Keeper deck in question the one you posted in the Viability of Hard Control without a Draw Engine thread?

[xouman]

Well, clearly I'm not prepared to play keeper, because I was leaning towards duress. I was about

50% - duress
30% - kept open to mana drain
20% - dt for lotus and play jace


That plan is weak against misstep, but otherwise:

-If he counters duress, it's one less counter for jace.
-If he does not, you can take his bomb, or make space for next turn Jace.

A confidant for him can be matched with a Jace next turn, probably bouncing Bob better than brainstorming.

[StanleyAugust]

I think some information is lacking. Are you on the play or on the draw? I assume you're on the play and mulled to 6 while your opponent mulled to 5?

I'm not a great Keeper player but I would probably DT for Lotus, play it and pass. My would likely be different if my opponent is on the play and missed his second land drop.

[DubDub]

By playing Lotus you signify that your open Volc isn't sufficient to interact at instant speed.

That doesn't necessarily lead them to conclude you have Drain.  Perhaps one mana isn't enough for you at instant speed because:
-You have REB and Drain and Ancestral.
-You have Flusterstorm and want to be able to pay for their Flusterstorm.
-You have Vendilion Clique and REB.
etc.

I think it would be a big mistake not to play Lotus if you're going to DT for it.  Slightly limiting the opponent's information does not seem worth cutting yourself off Drain.  What if they untap and play Jace?

You could also consider DT'ing for Mox Sapphire and playing that, which more directly telegraphs that you have Drain, but provides a permanent source of mana.  This still enables you to Drain and then untap into Duress+Jace, plus your Lotus is still in your deck.

[Cruel Ultimatum]

By playing Lotus you signify that your open Volc isn't sufficient to interact at instant speed.

That doesn't necessarily lead them to conclude you have Drain.  Perhaps one mana isn't enough for you at instant speed because:
-You have REB and Drain and Ancestral.
-You have Flusterstorm and want to be able to pay for their Flusterstorm.
-You have Vendilion Clique and REB.
etc.

I think it would be a big mistake not to play Lotus if you're going to DT for it.  Slightly limiting the opponent's information does not seem worth cutting yourself off Drain.  What if they untap and play Jace?

You could also consider DT'ing for Mox Sapphire and playing that, which more directly telegraphs that you have Drain, but provides a permanent source of mana.  This still enables you to Drain and then untap into Duress+Jace, plus your Lotus is still in your deck.

I think your missing the part where he said he wouldn't use the Dt and would just pass with drain mana up.

[zeus-online]

.

[wiley]

I Pass. I don't think it's really close if we're playing Keeper. Taking unnecessary risks isn't in our game plan.  DT is utterly crushed by Spell Snare and Flusterstorm. It also shuts off our Drain. This gives up a free turn to our opponent that we don't necessarily need to give. We are in a much better position to Drain into a Jace and DT the next turn if we so choose with more information. If our Drain is countered, we can then DT for the answer to whatever we tried to Drain.

Aside: 4 Snapcaster is almost certainly too many. 3 is pushing it.

This would be my line of play as well.  We have bombs in our hand and the opponent has done nothing relevant yet.  Both players are in the control roll at the moment, so you set it up to fight over his play next turn.  If your drain gets countered you can still play jace next turn or find an answer to his bomb and still be 1 mana source away from a jace.  If it doesn't then you have jace with backup.

Casting tutor opens you up to counter magic on your turn (which won't affect your opponent's abilities on his turn) and shuts you off from interacting on his turn.

There is also the point that was made about the mana you leave up represents far more than just drain.  Many of the cards you could have, like staticaster, could provide a huge tempo swing in your favor, which the bob/jace player will have to think about before he runs out his threat.

The worst thing that could happen is he plays nothing, at which point you get to have the chance to draw another blue or black mana source to duress and pass the turn with drain up.  You are the better control deck.

[d8dk32]

Casting tutor opens you up to counter magic on your turn (which won't affect your opponent's abilities on his turn) and shuts you off from interacting on his turn.

The more I think about it, the more I think this, and not the info you give away, is the main reason why the line of play I suggested isn't quite right. If your DT is countered, then you've gone and gotten blown out. If for some reason you knew your opponent had no countermagic, or if you had another black mana source (maybe jet instead of ruby) and could Duress first, then do you think <<DT for Lotus, play the Lotus, pass>> would be the right play?

[Onslaught]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

This is an exciting line of play. Duress into Jace with Drain mana available is a dominating position for sure. However, I feel like this has all the downsides of both aggressive/conservative plays, with none of the upside. I really don't want to pass the turn with having no way to interact with my opponent whatsoever. If you Duress or hold up Drain, you are most likely not going to lose to some explosive turn 2 play by your opponent. I don't know if the potential for an amazing turn 3 is worth passing the turn and letting them do whatever they please on turn 2. Are you basing your decision on the matchup? Besides a handful of fast mana and Key/Vault, I guess they can't do anything too devastating. Even Tinker for BSC is trumped by Jace. In other matchups though, there is no way I'd make this line of play since you would just have to sit and watch as they Duress your Lotus, or play a draw 7, or drop Fastbond and Gush, etc.

I Pass. I don't think it's really close if we're playing Keeper. Taking unnecessary risks isn't in our game plan.

For the sake of posterity, this is the line of play I took. I passed, he played Bob, which I used Mana Drain on, and was in control pretty much the rest of the way.

Aside: 4 Snapcaster is almost certainly too many. 3 is pushing it.

Almost certainly? The Euro Keeper lists with 4 Snapcaster disagree with your statement, as they consistently do very well in robust/vibrant metagames. Incidentally this speaks to the main strength of Keeper, which is access to every card ever printed and the ability to modify your deck from week to week for a given environment (which feeds into 4 Snapcaster, as your x1-2 copies of narrow blowout spells get extra mileage in relevant matchups).

Why not tutor for lotus and play it, but not play jace?

This has already been pretty well covered, but DT for Lotus and passing with Lotus in play seems wildly inefficient. If you have to crack Lotus for Drain, you wasted 1 mana, used 2 cards to counter one spell, and still may be susceptible to a good followup play depending on how much mana he has drawn. I don't think that is the worth the (admittedly huge) upside of untapping with 6+ mana available to cast and protect Jace. If I was going to DT on turn 2 at all, it would be for Ancestral (and I'd hold onto it). If I had to DT for Lotus (and DT resolved), I would drop it and cast Jace since his only out at that point is FOW.

Just to clarify: Onslaught, is the Keeper deck in question the one you posted in the Viability of Hard Control without a Draw Engine thread?

95% the same, yes. I have an Abrupt Decay now for a definitive answer to any Bobs that manage to stick, and changed the board up more based on what I expect to face.

Well, clearly I'm not prepared to play keeper, because I was leaning towards duress.

I think there is some merit to casting Duress instead of holding up Drain, but it's hard to justify when the extra mana from Drain transitions right into a turn 3 Jace. Especially since you know they are a Bob deck, and you really don't want to let him resolve.

I think some information is lacking. Are you on the play or on the draw? I assume you're on the play and mulled to 6 while your opponent mulled to 5?

It's turn two and you have two lands in play, so yes you went first in this game. Mull to 6 for you, (3 lands + 4 cards in hand, means you had a 6 card starting hand and 1 card drawn for turn 2).

[DuKeLiO]

The problem here is if he has Dark Confidant and Force or Flusterstorm/Spell Snare.
If I go with the route of DT->Ancestral it can be stopped with any counterspell and you will be hopeless against his Dark Confidant, unless you draw an mana source to play Jace and bounce it. Not very good.
If I go with DT->Black Lotus and play it is almost the same, beacuse he will use Flusterstorm/Spell Snare to counter your DT. If he has Force of Will he will not counter your DT or your Black Lotus, instead he will wait to use it protecting his Bob. Then If he plays Bob, I would not counter back with Mana Drain, but I prefer to let him resolve bob, and in my turn playing Jace with Mana Drain backup or Duress+Mana Drain if I drew a mana source (not mox pearl plz!). Not very good against non Force of Will counter.
If I pass the turn and he plays Bob, it only can protect it with Force of Will. If he has the Force I will go with Demonic->Lotus->Jace->bounce the critter with duress backup if I drawed a mana source.
I think this is the better route assuming our opponent has the bob.

If he has no bob and I go with the Demonic->Lotus route, I will lose the DT to his non-fow counter in the same way, negating the possibility of play Jace next turn, beacuse if I draw a mana source I will instead Duress + Mana Drain, beacuse playing Jace into Mana Drain is a very bad choice.
In the same way if I go with the pass route I will countinue doing nothing until I need to use my mana drain or I draw a mana source to play the Duress.

I think the plan of pass the turn is safer almost ever, and it has the same profit in a lot of cases, so is my choice.

[vaughnbros]

Yeh sure if opponent is going to tap out into your drain passing with drain is always going to be the right play...

In the same way if I go with the pass route I will countinue doing nothing until I need to use my mana drain or I draw a mana source to play the Duress.

So you pass.  They drop their second blue source and you sit there on equal footing.  You have now lost any advantage you may have had with your strong opener as you both play draw go until someone wants to start the counter war.

If he has no bob and I go with the Demonic->Lotus route, I will lose the DT to his non-fow counter in the same way, negating the possibility of play Jace next turn, beacuse if I draw a mana source I will instead Duress + Mana Drain, beacuse playing Jace into Mana Drain is a very bad choice.

There is no guarantee they will have a 1 mana counter in fact the odds more likely favor that they don't have one.  Most decks play about a maximum of 4 1 cc counters that can hit demonic.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Bob/Jace control

I'm guessing the tertiary color is red?  With REB and bolt, this offers some of the best counter tactics by the opponent, so let's do that for now.

There are basically three phases of play here to consider:
(1) The rest of your turn
(2) Your opponents next turn
(3) How the rest of this turn can set you up for a big turn 3

All things being equal, you want to progress your board state (ie, 'go to guns').  So then the constraints are what you expect out your opponents next turn.

For a grixis control list the key threats are:
(1) TVKey
(2) Tinker>BSC
(3) Jace
(4) Bob

Some sequence of wankery involving Time Walk, Yawgmoth's Will or Ancestral>Snapcaster are possible, but require increased numbers of rare combinations of cards.

Given this, I'm inclined to agree with Smennen, and here's why:

(1) You're on the play in the deciding game and you should leverage your advantage of going first.  It's a resource you shouldn't squander.
(2) It's not like you have a great hand for sitting back.  If you had FoW to back up Drain/Duress or if you had more lands to develop future turns then you might have a case for playing defensively.  You don't.
(3) Your opponent shows no signs of an explosive start.  Ie, it's not like he played sol ring>SDT>look at top3 and then passed.  He could be bluffing, but with 5 cards instead of 7 the chances are much lower.  You can always get blown out in Vintage, that's not how you should play.
(4) If your opponent has his own threat next turn, you have a pretty good hand for redressing it with both Drain and JTMS.

The biggest reason people seem to want to hang back is not the strength of your hand, but the potential strength of the opponent's.  That they will use Fluster/Spell Snare/etc to blunt your play and then drop theirs.  The problem with this line of thinking is that this means he's just as likely to reinforce his position as you are to undermine it.

The biggest advantage you have is your current development.  You should leverage it.

[A.-1.]

I'd Demonic Tutor and get Black Lotus if it resolved and pass without playing it. If you draw a mana source, it allows you to Duress, play Lotus, play Jace, and have Drain backup.

This is an exciting line of play. Duress into Jace with Drain mana available is a dominating position for sure. However, I feel like this has all the downsides of both aggressive/conservative plays, with none of the upside. I really don't want to pass the turn with having no way to interact with my opponent whatsoever. If you Duress or hold up Drain, you are most likely not going to lose to some explosive turn 2 play by your opponent. I don't know if the potential for an amazing turn 3 is worth passing the turn and letting them do whatever they please on turn 2. Are you basing your decision on the matchup? Besides a handful of fast mana and Key/Vault, I guess they can't do anything too devastating. Even Tinker for BSC is trumped by Jace. In other matchups though, there is no way I'd make this line of play since you would just have to sit and watch as they Duress your Lotus, or play a draw 7, or drop Fastbond and Gush, etc.

Yes, I was basing my decision on the matchup. My reasoning behind that line of play was basically what GI just said.

[Samoht]

Aside: 4 Snapcaster is almost certainly too many. 3 is pushing it.

Almost certainly? The Euro Keeper lists with 4 Snapcaster disagree with your statement, as they consistently do very well in robust/vibrant metagames. Incidentally this speaks to the main strength of Keeper, which is access to every card ever printed and the ability to modify your deck from week to week for a given environment (which feeds into 4 Snapcaster, as your x1-2 copies of narrow blowout spells get extra mileage in relevant matchups).

You can win with imperfect lists. I just top 8'd an event without playing Ancestral Recall in Keeper (registration error). Should we use that list as the new stock one because it was the most recent finish? Of course not. Look at the people playing Metalworker in Europe. Those lists are hyper metagamed for their 0 proxy events and don't translate well in the US at all.

On its face, Snapcaster does next to nothing without something else of value already having been done. By having 4 in the deck, you are very likely to see 2 early on in the game. It stunts your ability to get to the mid game where it starts to take over and late game where it shines. Cards that I want in the late game are generally capped as 2's, but it's power in the mid game might push it to 3. We could debate the merits of the 4th Snapcaster over another utility card or even the first Regrowth. I just think there are better ways to value that spot. This is very similar to the 4x Jace decks that were running around for awhile. I'm pretty sure 3 was the top end of that as well but they kept placing with 4. I still contend that it was in spite of that, but that's another matter entirely. The short of this is so much goes into placing well beyond just Construction and Playskill that pointing to the lists in top 8's is insufficient in determining optimal construction.

[Onslaught]

The problem here is if he has Dark Confidant and Force or Flusterstorm/Spell Snare.

I think this is the safest analysis. I agree that Bob resolving is one of the worst things for a 4C control deck that has no traditional "draw engine" other than Jace. It's very bad, especially if you don't have a Clique, and it's the sole reason I've added an Abrupt Decay to my 75.

So you pass.  They drop their second blue source and you sit there on equal footing.  You have now lost any advantage you may have had with your strong opener as you both play draw go until someone wants to start the counter war.

Unless they are Landstill, this is a dream scenario for you. Lots of "Land, Go" is exactly what you want in a control deck with Snapcasters to flash your counters.

The biggest advantage you have is your current development.  You should leverage it.

I think your breakdown is equally as thoughtful as the previous analysis presented to play around Bob, but ultimately I find that there are very few matchups where Keeper is not THE control deck. You can out counter anything except Landstill, and the longer the game goes the more inevitability you start to accrue due to the Snapcasters. Again, huge upside from the DT plays. But simply holding up Drain and safely extending the game is more in tune with what a hard control deck wants to do.

You can win with imperfect lists. I just top 8'd an event without playing Ancestral Recall in Keeper (registration error). Should we use that list as the new stock one because it was the most recent finish? Of course not.

This is silly logic and I'm sure you know that. Keeper lists with x4 Snap have had multiple top 8s over a long time period in large scale events. I'd say 30-60 person tournaments with T8 lists comparable to our metagame is a good sample size. As far as trying to disparage the European meta to somehow prove they are all playing suboptimal decks, I think that is a bit of a reach (and still doesn't really give much evidence against x4 Snap lists being strong decks).

You don't want Snap until the late game? I love having Land, Land, Artifact on t2 and passing with Snap + Snare or Misstep or something nutty like Ancestral. T1 Duress, T2 Snap Duress is going to clear the way for Jace and also put a body out there to block for him. I often -1 Jace on my own Snapcaster to get another use out of Time Walk or DT or something, so sometimes 4 isn't even enough and I want more. Postboard vs another blue deck, I want a billion Snapcasters as quickly as possible. Again, Land/Land/Mox by turn 2 with Snap in hand gets even better when your REBs and Flusterstorms are live postboard.

I'm not denying that 4 copies can be cloggy sometimes. Like an opening 7 of 4 mana sources, 2 Snap, and Echoing Truth or something. Would that hand be keepable anyway even if Snap was taken out and you spent that slot on another Spell Snare or something? I think that's the real question, as you touched upon: What would you rather fit in the deck than have the 4th (or even 3rd) copy of Snapcaster in your 75? As you already noted, it starts getting into subtleties of deck construction and becomes very difficult to quantify. Personally, I find that the flexibility of Snapcaster is so powerful in a Keeper style list that I want to run the 4th copy. I can see arguments against it, but for me the upside is overwhelming and the downsides are negligible.

[Smmenen]

The biggest advantage you have is your current development.  You should leverage it.

I agree with this.
Playing Demonic now for Lotus also helps maximize potential draws.  If you draw lands, that's fine -- you make land drops.  But if you don't, you can play whatever you draw plus Drain.  Plus, if you draw another Drain, you can then play both. The reasons for not playing DT seem weak (i.e. saving it for later).  

If they Spell Snare your DT, they would have been able to Snare your Drain anyway.   DT for Lotus seems to offer the greatest number of plays without cutting you off from countermagic.  The only risk is if they can Snare/Pierce your DT and then use that opening to play something.   That's a risk you need to take in order to develop and advance your game plan in a reasonable manner.