Kiora, the Crashing Wave

[gkraigher]

Soly,

I think your rule of thumb is pretty much dead on, and this card certainly fails in that department.  

On a side note, playing online cube, I lotused out a liliana of the veil on turn 1 and easily lost the game.  Her effects are things you want in the midgame, which is potentially why she sees little play in vintage.  

Kiroa +1 is a midgame effect that is very narrow.  

Her -1 is a solid first turn effect.  But it basically stops there.  If a game played out with her going on the first turn, then you -1, +1, -1, -1 over the course of the next 4 turns it would still just be okay and less effective than the UB Tezz.

[zeus-online]

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[brianpk80]

Have to agree with Menendian here, this planeswalker is potentially playable. All the abilities on it are good, the only thing i would be worried about is the fact that she starts with only 2 loyalty counters and that she occupies the same slot (and shares alot of functionalities with JTMS) as many other planeswalkers.

Any novelty it may have fails overcome the fact that it's severely underpowered compared to other blue Planeswalkers, which is consistent with the impotent design philosophy of recent sets.  The low loyalty unsupported by any corresponding augment in its abilities should be the first clue that it's simply another bad Theros block card, not a diamond in the rough.  We're talking about a Planeswalker that dies to a single Noble Hierarch after drawing 1 card.  That's pretty terrible. 

[zeus-online]

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[MaximumCDawg]

Have to agree with Menendian here, this planeswalker is potentially playable. All the abilities on it are good, the only thing i would be worried about is the fact that she starts with only 2 loyalty counters and that she occupies the same slot (and shares alot of functionalities with JTMS) as many other planeswalkers.

Any novelty it may have fails overcome the fact that it's severely underpowered compared to other blue Planeswalkers, which is consistent with the impotent design philosophy of recent sets.  The low loyalty unsupported by any corresponding augment in its abilities should be the first clue that it's simply another bad Theros block card, not a diamond in the rough.  We're talking about a Planeswalker that dies to a single Noble Hierarch after drawing 1 card.  That's pretty terrible.  

Let's not make it sound too harsh.  As you say, these recent cards are "impotent" not because they're actually bad in a vaccuum, but because they fall under the shadow of prior, more powerful printings.  This has been generally true about Vintage.  I feel like the era from Worldwake - Innistrad was something of an exception, finding lots of new places to push the envelope.  

Of course it is terrible in the situation you crafted to make it look bad. I think it's amazing to see how quickly people dismiss this card. Neither I nor Menendian has claimed it to be the next big thing, just that it could potentially see play in vintage.

Similarly, we're not crafting specific scenarios in which this card is bad.  We're saying it's hard to see a regular Vintage board state where you would not wish this planeswalker is Jace TMS. That's the problem.  I mean, I guess you'd want her instead when:  (1) you have GU and not UU; or (2) you must make another land drop this turn.  The first scenario seems rare in a deck with a stable mana base, and the second seems unlikely unless you're playing some wonky Horn of Greed deck or something.

Basically, she's not seeing play until something makes you want to play her other than Jace, and we don't think such a deck exists in the current card pool.  This is not without precedent: see Chandra Pyromaster.  Not a bad card, but just outclassed by Jace.  Kiora is in better colors but has the same problem.

[brianpk80]

Let's not make it sound too harsh.  As you say, these recent cards are "impotent" not because they're actually bad in a vaccuum, but because they fall under the shadow of prior, more powerful printings.

No card is technically bad in a vacuum which why that is not the appropriate metric.  8 mana to give a creature +1/+2 might seem reasonable if Holy Strength didn't already exist. 

 This has been generally true about Vintage.  I feel like the era from Worldwake - Innistrad was something of an exception, finding lots of new places to push the envelope.  

Every set since Invasion expanded the Vintage card pool in some meaningful way.  Theros is not comparable to Future Sight or Lorwyn or Zendikar or Fifth Dawn or Shards of Alara or Judgment or Scourge or Avacyn Restored or Onslaught, et. al.  To find a comparison in terms of unplayability, we have to go all the way back to Prophecy.  It's unambiguously terrible. 

[zeus-online]

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[brianpk80]

While i will agree that prophecy was bad, that set still added multiple cards to the vintage cardpool:
Abolish <--- not sure, but i believe it has seen play.
Aura fracture <--- Oldschool keeper tech
Spiketail hatchling <--- The dawn of fish

Then Theros is even worse than Prophecy making it perhaps the worst expansion of all time?

[zeus-online]

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[MaximumCDawg]

I wouldn't get down on Wizards for this.  They need to combat power creep, and recently they've been really good at printing weird and wacky new ideas that avoid any broken interactions with old cards.  Really, really good.  Like, astoundingly good.  So good.  Wow. 

Theros was like the poster child for the Design team pulling another one out.  The mechanics are new and interesting and utterly unbreakable in eternal.  You've gotta slow clap em on this one.  Someone is very concerned about keeping the lid on Modern and stopping it from becoming as fun as the other Eternal formats, and they're doing a Godlike job of it.

[Smmenen]

Power creep is misunderstood.  They can make cards that are powerful in Vintage but not in other formats: http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-designing-for-eternal/

[brianpk80]

Power creep is misunderstood.  They can make cards that are powerful in Vintage but not in other formats: http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-designing-for-eternal/

Agreed.  They could easily print a card that could burst through a board of spheres that would be premium in Vintage but have no impact on lesser formats. 

[Smmenen]

Power creep is misunderstood.  They can make cards that are powerful in Vintage but not in other formats: http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-designing-for-eternal/

Agreed.  They could easily print a card that could burst through a board of spheres that would be premium in Vintage but have no impact on lesser formats. 

Need not be that dramatic, as I illustrate in the article.  Different kinds of unusual or extreme constitutionality or strange and unusual costs and suffice. 

[MaximumCDawg]

Need not be that dramatic, as I illustrate in the article.  Different kinds of unusual or extreme constitutionality or strange and unusual costs and suffice. 

And in that, Kiora fails.  She's too close to JTMS in terms of her uses to be playable.

[Smmenen]

Need not be that dramatic, as I illustrate in the article.  Different kinds of unusual or extreme constitutionality or strange and unusual costs and suffice.  

And in that, Kiora fails.  She's too close to JTMS in terms of her uses to be playable.

Actually, not.  I'm going to wait until our podcast to discuss this in more detail (and deconstruct some of the arguments here), but the fundamental logical flaw that runs through most of the comments in this thread concluding that Kiora is unplayable is bound in this argument.  To wit, establishing that another playable card is better than a new card does not establish the new cards unplayability.  The only thing that can establish a cards unplayability is identifying a card that is unplayable that is strictly superior or nearly strictly superior to a new card.  People who read my set reviews would have ample examples of this.

Establishing that Jace is a better card does not prove that Kiora is unplayable. You can only play with 4 Jaces.   That leaves 56 other potential cards in a deck, of which one of which could be Kiora.  Also, while Jace may be better than Kiora, that doesn't mean that the 1st Kiora isn't better in a deck than the 4th Jace.  Looking at the cards acontextually does not account for marginal value comparisons via diminishing returns.

As noted by other posters, I never said that this card *would* see play.  But the comments in this thread arguing that it is unplayable fail basic mathmatical logic.  

Establishing that a card is unplayable before its legal is actually alot more difficult than the people in this thread suppose.  

[Soly]

Establishing that a card is unplayable before its legal is actually alot more difficult than the people in this thread suppose.  

In some cases it is, you're correct.  However, I feel that this card has effects that just are not worth the 4 mana to me in vintage.   Sure, this card could be playable (I won a lotus with an Artifact Aggro deck with TezzAOB for example, even though it rarely sees play!), but I don't think it's playable to me

[brianpk80]

Sometimes Akroan Horse is more useful than Ancestral Recall, for instance in those vexing situations where one has only 2 cards remaining in library.  Thank you for reminding us that no Magic card is strictly or mathematically unplayable. 

[Smmenen]

Sometimes Akroan Horse is more useful than Ancestral Recall, for instance in those vexing situations where one has only 2 cards remaining in library.  Thank you for reminding us that no Magic card is strictly or mathematically unplayable.  

That's actually not what I said or argued.  Lotus Petal is strictly inferior to Black Lotus.  That's a misrepresentation and a straw man of what I said. 

A card need not be strictly inferior to establish, a priori, it's unplayability.  I employ this methodology routinely in my comprehensive set reviews.   See "unplayable section": http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-the-dark-ascension-vintage-set-review-updated-vintage-checklist/

[Valorale]

Steve, I appreciate your enthusiasm for everything Magic. But I have a hard time believing that YOU believe this card is a contender in vintage.

It is fun to debate and toss it around but at the end of the day we both know this card will not make it into any viable deck.

[brianpk80]

That's actually not what I said or argued.  Lotus Petal is strictly inferior to Black Lotus. 

It isn't though.  If you get Mindslavered, having Lotus Petal in hand will limit an opponent's options considerably more than Black Lotus in the same circumstance. 

There will always be cute pseudo-academic gymnastics one can perform to prove um... anything, but at the end of the day, bad Theros block cards are simply that: bad cards.  End of discussion. 

[DubDub]

What Steve is trying to say, in contrast to Soly's hard and fast rules at the bottom of the first page of this thread, is to evaluate cards in terms of their synergies with other cards.  (Though I don't think cracks about failing basic logic are constructive.)  Jace has dis-synergy with himself, due to the planeswalker uniqueness rule (mitigated by his ability to brainstorm the second copy back into your deck), which Kiora does not have.  So would you rather fan a hand with four mana and two jaces, or four mana, one jace and one kiora?  If you think Jace is likely to die, then having a backup Jace is nice.  But wait, Kiora can possibly protect herself AND Jace from any one non-haste creature, that's synergy!

With planeswalkers, we have to be careful to dismiss them for failing to be as good as Jace, because we're probably not getting another one as powerful and versatile as Jace again.  We have to be careful because they're really quite good in combination.

How about a RUG Cobra/'walker list with:

3x JTMS
1x Kiora
1x Ral Zarek
1x Xenagos
1x Tezzeret TS
1x Time Vault
4x Lotus Cobra

And lightning bolt/nature's claim/FoW/etc. to round out the list?  Each of the first four walkers, along with Lotus Cobra as a blocker, protect your planeswalkers in some way (and in different ways).  Bubble-ing a hasty creature is better than bouncing it.  Putting a 2/2 in front of a Bob or dealing it three damage may allow you to bubble the Trygon Predator instead, etc.

Also, the planeswalkers overlap in other ways.  Kiora can net you an extra land drop, Ral Zarek untaps to give you more mana, Xenagos has a r/g Gaea's Cradle as his + ability, and Tezzeret can give you a second activation of your artifact accelerants.  And if your opponent has planeswalkers of their own then these ones combat them effectively, maybe not Kiora so much, but Jace can bounce a blocker so that Cobra can get in for two, Ral Zarek can tap or kill a blocker, and Xenagos can throw hasty Satyrs at them.

Most likely that list is bad, but any new planeswalker is much more likely to find a home in a deck like that than straight up replacing Jace as a 4x.

[MTGFan]

That's actually not what I said or argued.  Lotus Petal is strictly inferior to Black Lotus.  

It isn't though.  If you get Mindslavered, having Lotus Petal in hand will limit an opponent's options considerably more than Black Lotus in the same circumstance.  

There will always be cute pseudo-academic gymnastics one can perform to prove um... anything, but at the end of the day, bad Theros block cards are simply that: bad cards.  End of discussion.  

Ouch. I think Smennen just got Mindslavered.

[Smmenen]

That's actually not what I said or argued.  Lotus Petal is strictly inferior to Black Lotus.  

It isn't though.  If you get Mindslavered, having Lotus Petal in hand will limit an opponent's options considerably more than Black Lotus in the same circumstance.  

Indeed, but that's a universal exception - every card that is worse is better with Mindslaver. Mindslaver inverts the value of every card.  Black Lotus is perhaps worse than every other card in the game.  Similarly, being better may mean more likely to be named with Meddling Mage, Revoker, Pithing needle, etc.

That's a debate for another day.  

The point is that all of the arguments in this thread for Kiora's unplayability hinge on its inferiority to Jace.   That does not render Kiora unplayable any more than Ancestral Recall renders Brainstorm unplayable.  

In order to establish that a card is unplayable a priori, you have to establish that it is inferior (strictly or not) to a card that is already proven unplayable as I have done in my just linked set review with Bone to Ash (card under review) and Exclude (card that is unplayed, and yet strictly superior, or nearly so).

There will always be cute pseudo-academic gymnastics one can perform to prove um... anything, but at the end of the day, bad Theros block cards are simply that: bad cards.  End of discussion.  

Similarly, there will always be bad arguments, like this one (the "bad cards are bad" argument), and others in this thread to assert why a card is unplayable.  

Steve, I appreciate your enthusiasm for everything Magic. But I have a hard time believing that YOU believe this card is a contender in vintage.

It is fun to debate and toss it around but at the end of the day we both know this card will not make it into any viable deck.

I will reveal my actual prediction in the podcast.  Whether Kiora is playable or not matters, but it's not the most important issue here.   The issue is *why* or *why not* because that demands actual analysis and understanding of Vintage than a simple or simplistic conclusion.    Being right, but getting the reasons wrong is nothing to be proud of.  It has no explanatory or predictive value.  

[vaughnbros]

The point is that all of the arguments in this thread for Kiora's unplayability hinge on its inferiority to Jace.   That does not render Kiora unplayable any more than Ancestral Recall renders Brainstorm unplayable.  

Except that in this case her inferiority does make her unplayable.  The differences between Jace versus Kiora and Ancestral versus Brainstorm is that Jace and Kiora are 4 drops and Jace is unrestricted.  Decks are limited by the number of 4 drops that they can run.  I'd have to be already be playing 3 Jace and 1 Gifts in my gush deck before I'd even consider running a different 4 drop.  Considering this is already 4 4 drops that is a pretty high number for a gush deck.  Even then Kiora still has to compete with Thirst, Fact or Fiction, Talrand, and the plethora of the other 3/4 drops that aren't in the deck list yet.  If Jace gets restricted then and only then she can be good enough to see play, but right now she is not.

[Smmenen]

The point is that all of the arguments in this thread for Kiora's unplayability hinge on its inferiority to Jace.   That does not render Kiora unplayable any more than Ancestral Recall renders Brainstorm unplayable.  

Except that in this case her inferiority does make her unplayable.

 It's mathematically possible to run 4 Jace and 1 Kiora in a deck without breaking your curve (esp. with Cobra).   Kiora being inferior to Jace does not render her unplayable.  Unlikely?  Sure.  Unplayable? Too far.

[brianpk80]

Indeed, but that's a universal exception - every card that is worse is better with Mindslaver.

Even that's not correct.  You're making the rules up as you go along, adding ex post facto asterisks here and there to legitimize earlier iterations that did not withstand scrutiny.  It's fun initially and we'll leave it at that.  

Anyway, my argument about this Kiora being substandard has nothing to do with Jace.  This block is underpowered by design; the evidence is overwhelming.  It comes as no surprise that it contains a 4 CMC planeswalker that dies to a single Noble Hierarch if, heaven forbid, the thing should draw you a card.  That is unacceptable in ways that require no formality.  
 

[Smmenen]

Indeed, but that's a universal exception - every card that is worse is better with Mindslaver.

Even that's not correct.  You're making the rules up as you go along, adding ex post facto asterisks here and there to legitimize earlier iterations that did not withstand scrutiny.  It's fun initially and we'll leave it at that.  

It's not an ex post facto asterisk -- it's an implied, universal caveat.  As is the other ones I mentioned: If your opponent is more likely to mention Black Lotus with Meddling Mage than Lotus Petal, of course that undermines the claim of strict superiority.  When we talk about strict superiority as a concept, these caveats are implied or else the concept has no utility.  

You said:

Thank you for reminding us that no Magic card is strictly or mathematically unplayable.

But that wasn't my point.  My point was: " The only thing that can establish a cards unplayability is identifying a card that is unplayable that is strictly superior or nearly strictly superior to a new card.  People who read my set reviews would have ample examples of this."

Your reframing of my argument misrepresented my argument because it overlooked or ignored the bolded text.

Anyway, my argument about this Kiora being substandard has nothing to do with Jace.  This block is underpowered by design; the evidence is overwhelming.  It comes as no surprise that it contains a 4 CMC planeswalker that dies to a single Noble Hierarch if, heaven forbid, the thing should draw you a card.  
 

But as I've demonstrated in my design article, broad assertions about power level are irrellevant.  The set could have an extremely low power level by any metric, and yet still produce plenty of playables.  

Asserting Theros is underpowered in no way bears on the playability of Kiora.  

That is unacceptable in ways that require no formality. 

Disagree.  Cards that require no explanation are cards that are strictly or nearly strictly inferior to cards that are proven unplayable.  Blue planeswalkers that generate card and mana advantage - a completely novel activation in its simultaneity -- require more than curt dismissals, especially when there are obvious applications like Cobra Gush, which could alleviate all of its deficiencies and maximize its mana advantage. 

[brianpk80]

Asserting Theros is underpowered in no way bears on the playability of Kiora.  

All cards from this block have a presumption of impotence that confers a higher burden of proof on anyone attempting to assert the contrary.  Unfortunately for Kiora, she is not the next Tangle Wire or Merchant Scroll. 

[Smmenen]

Asserting Theros is underpowered in no way bears on the playability of Kiora.  

All cards from this block have a presumption of impotence that confers a higher burden of proof on anyone attempting to assert the contrary.  Unfortunately for Kiora, she is not the next Tangle Wire or Merchant Scroll.  

I'm pretty sure this is a common fallacy, reasoning from the general to the specific in this way.

We could easily imagine a set that has a much, much lower average power level, and yet, peculiar and important interactions that render it Vintage playable.  Recall the forms of strange, unusual or extreme conditionality or alternative costs that could make cards playable in Vintage that are garbage in other formats.  

I do not accept the principle that cards from Theros should be subject to different evaluative standards than cards from any other set.  That's simply unsupportable for the reasons detailed in my design article.  

[brianpk80]

I do not accept the principle that cards from Theros should be subject to different evaluative standards than cards from any other set.  

Of course they should.  That's their punishment.