what do you think is the metagame?

[ipconfig]

Hello There,

im going to BoM this year...

Right now im trying to understand the european metagame...
As i had a look at Morphling and here i came to the conclusion that nothiong dramatically has changed for over 2 years?

30% Workshop (the same as ever)
10% Dredge (it envolved more controlish with loosing Flamekin and adding ingot chewer)
30% Aggro-Control (Delver, BUG and other Fish) --> They won the percents where dredge lost them...
20% Controll (Tezz, Bomberman, Jace)
10% Combo (Burning Oath, Gush)

surely some decks/cards are new (Deathrite with Abrupt Decay) but overall nothing relevant changed?

can this be?
is my sight wrong?



apart from this:
1. two years ago workshop was something like: not many people are playing it, but most who do are doing top8...
2. Why is Dredge so underplayed? Is it beacause it is so boring and people like to interact more? Or is the SB-Hate that great?

[Chubby Rain]

My opinion on this is somewhat slanted (or flat out wrong) as I recently started playing competitive Vintage. I am also an American and play exclusively in the Northeast which is a different metagame.  That said, that the Vintage metagame has not changed is somewhat of an oversimplification. For instance, Grixis control has largely been replaced by BUG control as Abrupt Decay is a better card against Oath of Druids than Lightning Bolt. There have been changes within the Workshops archetype between the traditional Martello and Expresso lists. Some lists were sideboarding Serrated Arrows, Staff of Nin and other answers when Young Pyromancer was seeing play, but Young Pyromancer has become less common. RUG delver has seen less play since Eternal Weekend as Oath lists became more prevalent. AJ, who finished second at Eternal Weekend, was most recently running a blue combo/Tezz list (not 100% sure but based on scouting). Eternal Champ Joel put down Merfolk for a while to run some sort of blue control concoction. The pillars have been established for quite some time and it would take significant bannings/power creep to change this, but I feel there is significant change within pillars and archetypes.

Vintage doesn't quite have the same type of metagame shift that other formats do as there is a more significant barrier to changing decks, especially in sanctioned Vintage, where switching from Dredge from Workshops entails buying a set of Workshops. In addition, the different pillars play out "uniquely" in Vintage and it is difficult to adjust one's play style to a new deck. I also feel that it is harder to become competent when playing a new Vintage than compared to picking up a new Standard deck. I've gone through several tournaments without playing Doomsday, Burning Oath, Dredge and various other decks and do not feel as comfortable in these match ups compared to Shops, Blue Control, or the Fish decks. With Standard, I feel I can pick up a deck, get a couple games in against the field, and feel I stand a reasonable chance of doing well at the tournament. I also feel like I can switch Standard decks with a friend, play a couple of matches, and feel like this is valuable testing. In Vintage, you can tell when someone is competent with a deck and incompetent and your testing results can definitely be skewed.

Regarding your questions at the end,
1) I feel Workshops was somewhat underrepresented in top 8's when I first started playing but Workshop decks started doing better with the shift in the metagame. I think shops has benefited from the shift away from Red to Green in control decks. Nick or a Shops player could probably better answer your question/statement.
2) Dredge is pretty repetitive to play and I think there is a tendency for established players to gravitate towards Shops or Blue. Wizards has also printed significant hate cards within the past couple of years (Cage, Rest in Peace, Deathrite Shaman) that may have shifted people away from Dredge to other archetypes.

[TheWhiteDragon]

I wouldn't play anything with draw spells or jace as 4x Spirit of the Labyrinth is going to be as common as halfling's weed in the Shire.  I think human caverns and merfolk will be around 50% of the metagame.  Therefore, I'd recommend suicide black with full duress/seize, 4 phyrexian obliterators, other big butt critters, and 3-4 main toxic deluge.  You might even splash a color to get EE at 2 as a 3 of in your deck.  Some will run burning oath as it should do okay vs critters, but it'll get hammered by Spirit and cages all day.  Cage and rip are a huge reason nobody plays dredge.  Dredge either wins fast or it gets blown out...no middle ground.  The hate IS that good.  If you can beat it, you'll win, but odds are you won't beat it if anyone packs a quatrain of cages in addition to 4 other grave pounding spells like leyline, crypt, or RiP.  Workshops are awesome, but cost a bundle.  In a heavy critter world where Spirit trades with golem and trygon and pridemage can eat stuff, I don't see any shops top 8ing this time around.  Maybe one lucky turbo tezz sneaks in and maybe 1 burning oath....but I see 6+ fish decks at thee top table.

[ipconfig]

Thanks both for your thoughts!

I agree the metagame goes towards aggro-controll...
But i can't believe that SotL will have that predicted Impact (still i will test it) 3/1 for 2 is ok.

towards Chubby Rain:
Grixis Controll is the "same" Aggro Controll like BUG is...
Martello is the same Workshop like the new lightning greeves deck is
You are right that nuances of the decks will change, but the archtype remains. This is what i meant.
Surely i will need to test to see how it feels like to play against an Deathrite Shaman,
or to see a lightning greeved Workshop Player going off, but i think that some mechanics havent changed:

Controll <- Aggro Controll <- Aggro (Dredge is aggro) <-Combo <- Workshop <- Controll

This is very simplified i know but has been my experience so far...

Saying so i believe that TheWhiteDragon is right with the Idea to sleeve up an aggro deck but im not sure if Black Suicide is the right Idea...
Especially a 4 Mana Critter seems not to fit the curve...

How about the common candidates:
Food Chain, UW-Hatebears, or even Joels Merfolk Deck?

What has become of TMWA? Or Christmas Beatings?
Are they competitive?

[msg67183]

Thanks both for your thoughts!

I agree the metagame goes towards aggro-controll...
But i can't believe that SotL will have that predicted Impact (still i will test it) 3/1 for 2 is ok.

towards Chubby Rain:
Grixis Controll is the "same" Aggro Controll like BUG is...
Martello is the same Workshop like the new lightning greeves deck is
You are right that nuances of the decks will change, but the archtype remains. This is what i meant.
Surely i will need to test to see how it feels like to play against an Deathrite Shaman,
or to see a lightning greeved Workshop Player going off, but i think that some mechanics havent changed:

Controll <- Aggro Controll <- Aggro (Dredge is aggro) <-Combo <- Workshop <- Controll

This is very simplified i know but has been my experience so far...

Saying so i believe that TheWhiteDragon is right with the Idea to sleeve up an aggro deck but im not sure if Black Suicide is the right Idea...
Especially a 4 Mana Critter seems not to fit the curve...

How about the common candidates:
Food Chain, UW-Hatebears, or even Joels Merfolk Deck?

What has become of TMWA? Or Christmas Beatings?
Are they competitive?

Merfolk is still very much a solid deck, some of my buddy's don't want to play against me in tournaments because I'm on Merfolk! I've swayed from Joel's list, mine is slightly more controlling, but I think those changes have made a huge impact on the deck.

[xouman]

This is the last Metagame in LCV (courtesy of Roger Riera):

http://i209.photobucket.com/albums/bb224/gRR_RRg/Grafics%20LCV/Breakdown201402_zps3c102909.jpgz



36.5% listed as control or combo-control
30.7% listed as midrange or aggro
17.3% listed as workshop decks
11.5% listed as combo decks
3.8% listed as dredge


Dredge is underplayed imho because it's very unpopular. People hate playing against it and being a quite friendly league, people tend to play friendlier decks. And those people who play it usually perform under average.

Spirit of the labyrinth has yet to make a serious impact in LCV. Now better decks are decks without a serious draw engine, so spirit is not going to crush the field.

I played TMWA in a bunch of tournaments, but wastelands are quite common and people is often well prepared to them, and I left magus aside when lightning bolt was everywhere. Now that abrupt decay has replaced it, maybe it's a good moment to sleeve them again, but be prepared to suffer toxic deluges, painful snapcasters and devastating oaths.

merfolks also seem a good idea, since MUD is under 20% here

[ipconfig]

Somehow i am afraid of playing Merfolk because i believe that many people will play cards designed to beat aggro, since everybody knows that aggro is the next archetype to play...

That is allways my Problem...

Do I play the Aggro, because in a field of Aggro controll (Midrange controll) it seems to win.
Or do i go a step further and play Combo in the hope to see many aggro decks trying to beat those who thought one step ahead?

What do you think?
What has been your experience?
Do you play one step ahead the current metagame or two steps?

 

[msg67183]

Somehow i am afraid of playing Merfolk because i believe that many people will play cards designed to beat aggro, since everybody knows that aggro is the next archetype to play...

That is allways my Problem...

Do I play the Aggro, because in a field of Aggro controll (Midrange controll) it seems to win.
Or do i go a step further and play Combo in the hope to see many aggro decks trying to beat those who thought one step ahead?

What do you think?
What has been your experience?
Do you play one step ahead the current metagame or two steps?

 

Like I have stated, my Merfolk list is alot more controlling. My buddy refers to it as "Landstill with Mermaids" because I play 16 main deck counters and 5 in the board. Haha

I usually am able to counter their removal. I will say the "go to" removal spell, Toxic Deluge, isn't as great against Merfolk as against other creature decks, since they will have to pay like 4+ life.
I'm just saying Merfolk is very strong and I really enjoy it.

[WhiteLotus]

You should play what fits your playstyle and what you're the most comfortable with. You'll probably have a better result this way than trying to play any deck you don't know very well but feel is well positioned.
It looks like right now a lot of things are viable and can win any given tournament Stax, Kuldotha shop, oath, bug fish, delver, Grixis/BUG Jace control, bomberman, Uw angels, merfolks... You have the choice.
If you want the deck that has the best matchups across the field though, what you want is probably BUG Fish.

[Onslaught]

I feel like the deck with the fewest bad matchups right now is Remora/SFM/TNN.dec

It seems like it has game against every archetype and is around even with everything but perhaps Burning Oath? Remora is always strong against other Blue decks, SFM is generally great against aggro and TNN carrying a Jitte is devastating, UW has proven to be consistent against Shops (and SFM is great there too), and RIP with other misc Dredge hate is the best package you could ask for.

Here's a good starting point, 2nd in a 53 man event - http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=12748&iddeck=93497

[AmbivalentDuck]

I feel like the deck with the fewest bad matchups right now is Remora/SFM/TNN.dec

This isn't the only consideration or even the main one. Over a long tournament, you want to minimize this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_fatigue

And to do that, you want plenty of "oops I win." Anything that has a clear game plan or can fall back on a particular combo or strategy in most matchups.

[Soly]

Do yourself a favor and don't take ANYTHING TheWhiteDragon has to take seriously.

If you're fully powered and have Time Vault, I would highly suggest playing a deck like Greg Fenton's Oath Deck.  It has a lot of strong openers, and more than anyhting it can steal some wins.  Not having to rely on your playskill EVERY round is going to be important, because occasionally, "vintage happens", and with Oath, you're usually on that side. 

"Oarchard, Mox, Oath.  Force your force.  go".

[TheWhiteDragon]

Do yourself a favor and don't take ANYTHING TheWhiteDragon has to take seriously.

If you're fully powered and have Time Vault, I would highly suggest playing a deck like Greg Fenton's Oath Deck.  It has a lot of strong openers, and more than anyhting it can steal some wins.  Not having to rely on your playskill EVERY round is going to be important, because occasionally, "vintage happens", and with Oath, you're usually on that side.  

"Oarchard, Mox, Oath.  Force your force.  go".

Wow, really???  Okay, so my troll reputation precedes me  Yeah, I would just go with the most powerful deck you feel comfortable with.  I DO predict lots of the following 4-ofs to be flying around though: grafdigger's cage, toxic deluge, spirit of the labyrinth. Those effects are crazy strong and knock out complete deck strategies on their own...so that's my only real prediction.  I have no clue what the meta would look like or the best deck to play since I'm not even near that area .  I just know strong answers to huge chunks of any field, so I'd be wary of those 3 cards.

[Guli]

DTB are:

BUG Fish

Workshop (Forgemaster!, aggro MUD with dismember and legionnaire)

Classic Blue (grixis usually, involves Time Vault and Tinker)

Oath (be aware, not all of them are on Griselbrand)


You can obviously face a variety of decks, for example I faced a Naya deck in the last BoM and had to play extremely tight to get a win out of the match. Just make sure you got a plan against aggressive beat down strategies, it is not something you can 'pass' on anymore. But don't threat BUG as an aggro deck, it is in fact a tempo/control deck that has a lot of broken plays.

[MTGFan]

If you want something that, with an adequate degree of pilot skill, will beat everything in the format consistently, play this:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=45927.0

If you like playing aggro-control, this deck is, imho, the best aggro-control deck in Vintage. It's like a more powerful Merfolk with more broken individual plays and better disruption.