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Author Topic: Vintage Super League Season 2 Week 4-6 Predictions & Discussion  (Read 16379 times)
desolutionist
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« Reply #90 on: March 11, 2015, 12:47:36 pm »

I think the Mentor deck is pretty sloppy. The entire deck is blue meta counterspells and draw so without much board control, you have to have Mentor out immediately or you're going to lose to Grizzly Bears. (Or Oath of Druids)

I'm not saying the deck should start playing Supreme Verdicts, but it's kind of obvious to see why the Mentor deck fails.
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« Reply #91 on: March 11, 2015, 01:26:57 pm »

I think the Mentor deck is pretty sloppy. The entire deck is blue meta counterspells and draw so without much board control, you have to have Mentor out immediately or you're going to lose to Grizzly Bears. (Or Oath of Druids)

I'm not saying the deck should start playing Supreme Verdicts, but it's kind of obvious to see why the Mentor deck fails.

I don't think any of these 3 Mentor lists are "the" Mentor list. I think the builds were quite sloppy (not running sensei's top in Stephen's and not running full moxen is just not how I think the deck best operates). I also think there have been some play mistakes with the deck and mis-assignment of role on a couple occasions. The most egregious one I saw last week was Dave Williams not gitaxian probing before firing off recall on turn 1 of game 1 vs. lsv. I am not sure lsv missteps the probe and then Dave has perfect information going forward and that game 1 goes very differently. I think the combination of sub-optimal builds of the deck and a lack of understanding on what role the deck should be assuming and how leverage tempo with this very new card is what is holding it back.

I think Kevin Cron's approach is the best I've seen thus far. Remora is a good draw engine and gives you Time Walks that are critical in the early turns vs. blue decks. I think the anti-creature suite needs to be more robust and I also think cards like Skullclamp should be given more consideration for Trinket builds of the deck. Basically, I think the Mentor deck needs a much more relevant plan to attempt to vault itself into the mid-game. If the Mentor deck can get to the mid-game at parity it often has the tools to get there vs. blue. This is why I like Remora. It can do that very efficiently. However, Remora belongs with a manabase full of mana sources.

-Storm
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desolutionist
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« Reply #92 on: March 11, 2015, 01:58:46 pm »

Remora was pretty terrible for Bob last night and if we continue to see powerful creature printings the card will become even worse.  The decks problem wasn't that it couldn't draw cards, it was that the strategy was weak compared to the competition.

Mentor isn't a Young Pyromancer replacement and the Delver deck is the best Gush aggro control strategy.  People are calling the Mentor deck, "Mentor Control", and thus playing it like a UW control deck but the reality is that control strategies in Vintage are not very good. By the nature of the strategy, you're giving the opponent too many chances to beat you.  And you're not exactly ending the game with Tinker; instead you're passing with a 3 mana 2/2
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« Reply #93 on: March 11, 2015, 02:29:45 pm »

Randy Buehler,

Thank you for acknowledging the power of Cavern of Souls into True-Name Nemesis.  I think you could get away with Brainstorm, and make your Treasure Cruise more relevant, if you included a few Flooded Strands or the like in your deck.  Other than that, I like where your head was at, as the deck generally doesn't maximize True-Name Nemesis.  When the Lightning Bolt deck can accidentally flood the board with free creatures as well as remove its Islands from play at a moment's notice, it's nice to have a 3/x (or larger!) that completely invalidates their speed bumps.  I wish you, as well as anyone that decides to emulate you, the best of luck the rest of the season.
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« Reply #94 on: March 11, 2015, 03:36:32 pm »

Randy Buehler,

Thank you for acknowledging the power of Cavern of Souls into True-Name Nemesis.  I think you could get away with Brainstorm, and make your Treasure Cruise more relevant, if you included a few Flooded Strands or the like in your deck.  Other than that, I like where your head was at, as the deck generally doesn't maximize True-Name Nemesis.  When the Lightning Bolt deck can accidentally flood the board with free creatures as well as remove its Islands from play at a moment's notice, it's nice to have a 3/x (or larger!) that completely invalidates their speed bumps.  I wish you, as well as anyone that decides to emulate you, the best of luck the rest of the season.

Merfolk is performing well but from an entertainment perspective I hope nobody plays Merfolk ever again. Watching Legacy in VSL isn't great theater IMHO.
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CHA1N5
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« Reply #95 on: March 11, 2015, 04:03:14 pm »

Hey Kevin, thanks for the insight. Did you change your decklist at any point since the last time?

I've made 3-5 changes each time I've played the deck.  They are incremental and metagame-specific, so I haven't been posting about all of them. 

Regarding Mentor decks: just as there are multiple Pyromancer decks, after many months of iteration, I believe there are legitimately 3-4 discreet Mentor decks.  My initial build was designed for a specific (local) metagame and shouldn't be viewed as any kind of standard more than any other.  Steve/Dave's builds are also metagame-specific.  I think all three of the lists played this semester can and will be improved, but they were not wholly bad lists to start with.  Any of you who watched the matches play out can see that there were several typical twists and turns to the games that point to a variety of Vintage interactions and not necessarily bad play or design.  I do think that each of the Mentor players were punished for the sideboard choices, but those kind of things are amplified in a three round tournament.  As you heard during this week's commentary, Dave had a read on a different build and sideboard (Containment Priest, specifically) that would ultimately have been much better for his matchups; but he didn't play it.

I won't be surprised if there are zero Mentor decks in the rest of this season, but more than zero next season... with better results.
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« Reply #96 on: March 11, 2015, 07:05:55 pm »


I don't think any of these 3 Mentor lists are "the" Mentor list. I think the builds were quite sloppy (not running sensei's top in Stephen's and not running full moxen is just not how I think the deck best operates). I also think there have been some play mistakes with the deck and mis-assignment of role on a couple occasions. The most egregious one I saw last week was Dave Williams not gitaxian probing before firing off recall on turn 1 of game 1 vs. lsv. I am not sure lsv missteps the probe and then Dave has perfect information going forward and that game 1 goes very differently. I think the combination of sub-optimal builds of the deck and a lack of understanding on what role the deck should be assuming and how leverage tempo with this very new card is what is holding it back.


-Storm

I didn't cast the probe because I needed two blue cards for my two Force of Wills. If I were to cast probe and not hit a blue card I wouldn't have a 2nd blue card with my FoWs behind my Ancestral. Luis only plays 3 Missteps in his deck and had 2 of them. With two in his hand it's likely he counters the probe as they are less effective when his opponent knows about them.

You are the biggest Monday morning quarterback I've ever seen. Every time I see you criticizing a play you somehow always would have made the perfect play based on results. I have never seen you applaud a play or say how you would have done something differently that would not have worked out. We are playing a high variance format against other very good players. A lot of the options are close judgement calls and the difference in them is small % points that could really go either way.

How about saying "I don't understand why he didn't cast the probe first (clearly you didn't) and I wonder how the game would have played out if the did." Questioning plays instead of asserting how you would have made the play that would turn out to be correct based on results is actually conducive to promoting a high level discussion analyzing different lines of play. This would help everyone involved (including the players in the match) improve as players and based on the few minutes of your videos I've watched, you could use it.

DW
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« Reply #97 on: March 11, 2015, 08:07:40 pm »

Merfolk is performing well but from an entertainment perspective I hope nobody plays Merfolk ever again. Watching Legacy in VSL isn't great theater IMHO.

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« Reply #98 on: March 11, 2015, 09:44:10 pm »

Yes in general very entertained, maybe I'm a bad sport for turning my nose up at Merfolk. It just plays too much like legacy. Combat isn't too interesting between islandwalk and the stupid true name. Play with Power doesn't scream out Merfolk, but its an effective deck and I'm not the one trying to actually win.
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« Reply #99 on: March 11, 2015, 10:42:39 pm »

I'm very happy that this "trimester" people swerved away from delver. Man those games are boring. Mentor decks are much more fun, even if their shell if delverish. Don't get me wrong, I love VSL, but those Delver mirrors were boring as hell. Hope we don't see more of that.
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mueller
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« Reply #100 on: March 12, 2015, 01:42:10 am »

This trimester was exceptional. Can't wait to see the deck choices for the final third.
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tito del monte
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« Reply #101 on: March 12, 2015, 04:12:29 am »

This trimester was exceptional. Can't wait to see the deck choices for the final third.

Agreed! I thought we got a really nice variety of strategies this time round, with Omni-Oath being the kind of brilliant left-field choice many of us were pining for. Personally, I disagree with Sean - I actually really enjoyed seeing Merfolk resurface (boom-tish) - it's not a deck I ever see much of, so seeing how it plays out has been interesting - and although TNN is the derpiest creature ever printed, it's a legitimate tactic and I'm glad to see Randy highlight how something as simple as that can keep Vintage honest. Overall, just very happy to see a non-Delver aggro-control deck represented. And though, I'm sure Sean was being pretty light-hearted, I found it was the Devler mirrors for days, that felt like watching Legacy! Smile

@DWPoker Thanks for dropping by and participating on the boards. Whatever the pros and cons of your plays this week, it's been great watching you play and hearing you commentate. Keep it up! Personally, I always struggle against Oath, as I'm never sure what role to adopt - in retrospect, do you think it is nearly always correct playing the controlling role against them? Would it have been better to just hold double FoW up against Luis, with the chance of refilling with Recall after fighting over an Oath/SnT?

Anyway, looking forward to the next tranche of matches immensely. I hope someone sticks to a Workshop build of some kind to keep things kind of representative, similarly, I'd be fine with there being a URg or URw Delver deck, as it remains a key element of the meta... otherwise, I'm not sure if we're going to see tweaked Mentor lists or something very different. Perhaps time for Steve to wheel out Gifts?

Thanks again to Randy and all the players. Best entertainment all week!
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fsecco
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« Reply #102 on: March 12, 2015, 01:00:02 pm »

I just really wanted to see 2 decks on VSL: Tasigur Bomberman (I know the issues but at least from a telespectator point of view I'm willing to put up with the time it'll take to generate mana) and Humans. I feel Humans should be very well positioned in a mostly blue meta. And there are some builds that are very resilient to Oath (although you'd have to adapt to OmniShow).

If someone is capable of running Humans I'd say it's Randy. Smile

Also, if someone is to play Dredge, I'd like a lot to see Dr. Edge actually be played instead of "normal dredge".
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« Reply #103 on: March 13, 2015, 05:37:41 am »

I still have to see a couple of videos of w6, but I agree that w4-w6 have been the best so far. Lots of interesting matches, with uncertainly ends.

I don't agree with merfolk being a legacy deck. While the core is really similar the way to pilot it is different, because the rest of the decks are really different compared to legacy, and having ancestral, lotus and walk changes it quite a lot.
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nedleeds
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« Reply #104 on: March 13, 2015, 12:32:46 pm »

Meh ... agree to disagree. It's just spamming lords, ignoring combat, wastelanding / mana denialing and using pitch magic. Same as legacy. Having 2 randomly interspersed draw 3's with no library manipulation doesn't change the thrust of the deck or how linear it is. I'm not saying it's a bad choice for trying to win in a field of blue decks with bad mana bases.
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Stormanimagus
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« Reply #105 on: March 13, 2015, 01:27:47 pm »

I just really wanted to see 2 decks on VSL: Tasigur Bomberman (I know the issues but at least from a telespectator point of view I'm willing to put up with the time it'll take to generate mana) and Humans. I feel Humans should be very well positioned in a mostly blue meta. And there are some builds that are very resilient to Oath (although you'd have to adapt to OmniShow).

If someone is capable of running Humans I'd say it's Randy. Smile

Also, if someone is to play Dredge, I'd like a lot to see Dr. Edge actually be played instead of "normal dredge".

I too would love to see Randy pilot my Humans deck. For those who don't check the deck discussion thread that often: http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=47292.0

Yeah, he'd probably wreck face in a field full of greedy blue decks with GWB Cavern Humans. Just sayin'. Wink Do eeeeet!

-Storm
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« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2015, 01:30:14 pm »

Storm, I don't know if you stayed in the VSL twitch after it was over this week, but I pointed Randy exactly to your decklist and that thread here on TMD (also linked him to the Humans thread here). He seemed interested at least in testing it. Let's hope! Smile
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Stormanimagus
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« Reply #107 on: March 13, 2015, 04:07:58 pm »

Storm, I don't know if you stayed in the VSL twitch after it was over this week, but I pointed Randy exactly to your decklist and that thread here on TMD (also linked him to the Humans thread here). He seemed interested at least in testing it. Let's hope! Smile

That's awesome! This also doesn't surprise me. While some of Randy's lists are nuts and not always ones I agree with, I will give him huge credit for trying anything more than any other player on the VSL. Hopefully he'll see the validity of this deck and give it a whirl Smile.

-Storm
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« Reply #108 on: March 13, 2015, 06:32:57 pm »

I hope so too storm. Smile
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« Reply #109 on: March 13, 2015, 09:49:13 pm »

Me too. I've been asking for Humans on VSL since Season 1. It's such a nice change of pace for the meta.
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desolutionist
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« Reply #110 on: March 14, 2015, 01:06:01 pm »

Why is everyone so high on humans?  Why not Goblins?
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« Reply #111 on: March 14, 2015, 03:09:29 pm »

Why not just let those guys play what ever they want whether it's goblins, humans, belcher, gush combo, workshops, or thallids?

[EDIT] Let'em have fun. That's what is really all about.
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« Reply #112 on: March 14, 2015, 04:40:53 pm »

Why is everyone so high on humans?  Why not Goblins?

As much as I think Goblins can smash and pulverize shops and delver I think that it often just loses to Oath and Time Vault decks. Humans has game vs. all 4 of those archetypes that I think Gobbos lacks. I like Goblins but I'm not sure how versatile it is. In a 100% known meta maybe it's better?

-Storm
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« Reply #113 on: March 14, 2015, 06:33:46 pm »

Beasts all the way. Trygon Thresher and Blastoderm would wreck everything. Smile
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tito del monte
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« Reply #114 on: March 17, 2015, 05:14:34 am »

Looking forward to this tonight! (Well tomorrow by the time I get to watch in Germany).

I suspect deck choices to be quite conservative for this next trimester, given that Mentor (as built thus far in the VSL) and Gifts have both failed to live up to their hype (the latest Brian Kelly masterpiece notwithstanding). I think that means we'll see a few players default to a more-or-less stock Big Blue control deck - Grixis minus Bob, plus cantrips and Digs, plus maybe a tiny splash for a fourth colour.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Rich stick with Delver - and certainly couldn't fault him for doing so. It's clearly still a fantastic deck in the hands of a very able pilot and as it remains a central part of the meta, I think it's good to see it represented.

And I do hope we see at least one Shops deck, too, for more or less the same reason. If so, I imagine it will be a Forgemaster build rather than Terra Nova.

Maybe someone will run a hatebear deck, be it 5-colour humans or Junk bears or something like BUG Fish. But despite Randy's flirtations with Merfolk, most of the league are pretty wedded to doing broken things, so I'd put the chances of that at fairly slim.

Good luck to all the competitors anyway - bring it on! Smile
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« Reply #115 on: March 17, 2015, 07:02:17 am »

Maybe a Landstill deck of some sort would be good to see this time.
I'll expect one or two desperate people to go safe and sleeve up dredge & MUD
I like the look of that Brian Kelly Mentor deck too so hopefully someone had enough time to register the list for the last round.
I still would like to see good old BUG & some Marit Lage token swinging as well (Dark Depth or in MUD brew)
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