Vintage Super League Season 2 Week 7-9 Predictions & Discussion

[JACO]

In Vintage Super League Season 2 Weeks 4-6, we saw Workshops make a strong and effective comeback, the recreation of the Omar Rohner's Show and Oath deck from yesteryear to incorporate Omniscience, and the absolute train wreck that was Monastery Mentor's performance (1-8 in matches between the 3 players).

What will we see in VSL Season 2, Weeks 7-9? We are in the home stretch to decide who will make the playoffs, and how the playoff seedings will shape up. With Eric Froehlich pacing the pack at 6-0, Luis-Scott Vargas, Chris Pikula, and Randy Buehler are all 1-2 matches back, and within striking of first place heading into the playoffs if EFro takes a tumble. In VSL Season 1 the cut to Top 4 included records of 2 players at 6-3, and 2 players at 5-4. If 5-4 is the playoff cutoff again, all players but David Williams and Tom Martell are live with a chance. Another exciting angle will be who will fall to last place and be eliminated from next season? With more than half the league at 3-3 or worse, it's a wide open race!

As of the conclusion of Week 6, here are the standings by record, along with the next 3 rounds for each player:
Eric Froehlich 6-0 (R7 vs. Scott-Vargas, R8 vs. Maher, R9 vs. Martell)
Luis Scott-Vargas 5-1 (R7 vs. Froehlich, R8 vs. Pikula, R9 vs. Shay)
Chris Pikula 4-2 (R7 vs. Maher, R8 vs. Scott-Vargas, R9 vs. Menendian)
Randy Buehler 4-2 (R7 vs. Williams, R8 vs. Martell, R9 vs. Budde)
Rich Shay 3-3 (R7 vs. Menendian, R8 vs. Williams, R9 vs. Scott-Vargas)
Steve Menendian 2-4 (R7 vs. Shay, R8 vs. Budde, R9 vs. Pikula)
Bob Maher 2-4 (R7 vs. Pikula, R8 vs. Froehlich, R9 vs. Williams)
Kai Budde 2-4 (R7 vs. Martell, R8 vs. Menendian, R9 vs. Buehler)
David Williams 1-5 (R7 vs. Buehler, R8 vs. Shay, R9 vs. Maher)
Tom Martell 1-5 (R7 vs. Budde, R8 vs. Buehler, R9 vs. Froehlich)

What are your predictions for what each player will be playing, and how will they each perform in their pod?

All eyes will be on Twitch and YouTube this month as the final trimester of Vintage Super League Season 2 plays out. Catch it live Tuesday nights at 9pm ET/8pm CT/6pm PT on twitch.tv/magic.

VSL Season 2 Week 7-9 Decklists
VSL Season 2 Week 7 YouTube Playlist
VSL Season 2 Week 8 YouTube Playlist
VSL Season 2 Week 9 YouTube Playlist

[nedleeds]

Man you get up early.

I think the 3 different mind sets will play a role, jockeying for seeding, trying to make the playoff and trying to stay on the island.

For David and Tom ....

"Mishra's Workshop, The very best there is. When you absolutely, positively got to kill every motherfucker in the room, accept no substitutes."

Just get 2-3 wins.

Somebody will stick it out with Mentor and perhaps go with a less Gush, more mana approach after seeing the short comings and bad matchups of the Mentor decks from this set.

Will we ever see a non shop, non dredge, non big blue deck in this league? Will anyone cast Gaddock Teeg?

We saw exactly 1 Time Vault in all 10 decks from this trimester. That seems absurd. Maybe there will be a correction.

[Prospero]

I'll be pulling hard for Dave.  I thoroughly enjoy his commentary and would really miss it if he didn't make the cut for the next VSL.

I'll be rooting for Rich and Steve to do as well as can be.  Things won't be easy, but here's hoping.  Rich is one of the masters.  If anybody can pull this off, it's him.

I'm hoping that Chris breaks through, makes the playoffs and wins the whole thing.  He's one of the best people I've met in the Magic community and he deserves all the accolades and praise he receives.

[fsecco]

Agreed 3 times, Prospero.

And yes, I really hope someone plays Humans this time around.

[desolutionist]

I enjoy Randy's jovial antics.  No one else in the league is quite as animated.  He's also pretty good at selecting the right deck.  It will be cool to see what other decks he has up his sleeve

[KanaKaishou]

We saw exactly 1 Time Vault in all 10 decks from this trimester. That seems absurd. Maybe there will be a correction.

I'm not surprised at all. Time Vault, the strategy (that is, Vault/Tinker/Will/Tutors/Jace) is at its absolute worst of all time in the current metagame. Shops is better at locking them out than ever before. Delver puts on a high volume of pressure backed by better card draw and counterspells. Hatebears are better than ever. I don't think that the deck has gotten worse, in terms of its own power level, but other decks have caught up and passed it for the time being. Gifts gave people some hope of the deck being better, but simply put, it was another 4 mana durdle spell, and even when that spell mostly said "win the game" on it, it wasn't quite good enough to give the archetype enough of a shot in the arm.

[Phele]

I found Time Vault quite fitting as an alternative win condition in esper Mentor so far. You can still run the superiour draw engine, go with explosive Mentors and even go for direct combo kills. I dont think that Time Vault just fits into big mana grixis style lists. Vault is still very, very good against Shops and Dredge.

[WhiteLotus]

The question regarding time vault is not whether it's good or not, it's just that most of the decks built around it are inconsistent and get outdrawn pretty hard by Gush based strategies.

Until those decks have access to a real draw engine and better manipulation, it's only going to go downhill from here. Eventually, Time Vault will get to a point where it is as marginal as Tendrils.


Edit:

The deck variety has been more than enjoyable to watch so far, the first period was very combo and delver oriented with about half of the meta being consistent turn 2 decks lot's of cool plays but not always the most interactive matches. Then the second one came as a refreshing wave with a nice demonstration of Shop's and Oath's power. I wonder how players will metagame for the last period and if they opt for the "play the best deck" strategy or the "play something cool" one.

I think the mentor decks came at the wrong time and also there were a lot of times where they drew poorly. But it seems pretty clear that the Mentor decks in general have a lot of issues when they can't resolve Mentor on time. I'm not sure the delver manabase approach is the best way to build those decks, but remora + a million non hard counters was even worse against a field with merfolks, shops and Oath. For Bob's deck, cavern stood out as a liability with Gush and the deck looks like it desperately needs the 4th mentor. From steve and dave's deck I think just a bit more artifacts to power out early mentors without tapping all colored sources and sensei is absolutely necessary for mentor decks, as they often need 3 spells on two consecutive turns to win and any draw spell + draw step sensei trick guarantees that at minimal investment.

[Phele]

The question regarding time vault is not whether it's good or not, it's just that most of the decks built around it are inconsistent and get outdrawn pretty hard by Gush based strategies.

I think I was not clear about that, sorry. I think that Time Vault fits perfectly in a Gush based Esper Mentor deck. You can have almost the same draw engine, you can rule the battlefield with Mentors and you can close the game quickly with Time Vault. Voltaic Key even interacts quite nice with Mana Crypt, Sol Ring and 1-2 Tops, that I would play in this sort of deck. You weaken your deck a bit against Shops by going for UWB instead of UWR, but you can still adjust your deck and sideboard to a state, where you have a sattisfying percentage of wins against Shops. And Vault-Key is pretty strong against Shops while diversifying your deck with such a strong win condition can help in many other matchups too. And it is not the worst thing in the world, to have the black tutors and Will in your deck. Just my impression after quite a bit testing.

[JACO]

Predictions for tonight?!

[Prospero]

Predictions for tonight?!

Luis beats Eric.

Chris beats Bob.

Dave beats Randy.

Kai beats Tom.

Not sure on the last one.  Maybe we'll get a mirror match. 

[GalacticHitchHiker]

The only matchup I can confidently make a prediction about is Dr. Shay vs. Steve Menendian.

I met Steve at a local Vintage event on Sunday, and we talked a bit about deck choice since I showed up with his deck from Trimester two (The first thing he said to me was "It's pretty ballsy to show up with the deck I 0-3'd with.)

I won't talk about his deck so as not to give anything away, but he's very well prepared for what he expects Dr. Shay to play, and I think he has a very good chance of winning.


EDIT: Now that there's no risk of giving away information:

Steve 90% expected Rich to run back Delver, in which case his build of more token generators (It was a 3/3 split on Sunday, but it looks like he went with a 4/2 Mentor bias after testing on Monday with Diophan) would have been advantaged.

Good to see he learned the danger of leaving artifacts in play after that blowout against LSV  

[evouga]

Steve did indeed win, though it was a very close and tense match. If Rich had chosen Wear/Tear with Thoughtseize he perhaps could have won the game... but it's not clear to me that that would have been the correct play (I would've taken the Force of Will myself).

Rich and Steve, you guys need to pull out all of the stops next week -- we can't have the Vintage experts getting kicked off the league!

[The Atog Lord]

Yeah, I really don't like how I played game three. I should have taken the Force of Will, not the Mental Misstep. That was just a poor play on my part. Also, seeing that Steve had the Wear/Tear, I shouldn't have played that Mox. I just played that whole game very poorly.

[JACO]

Yeah, I really don't like how I played game three. I should have taken the Force of Will, not the Mental Misstep. That was just a poor play on my part. Also, seeing that Steve had the Wear/Tear, I shouldn't have played that Mox. I just played that whole game very poorly.

Agreed. If you take the Force of Will on Turn 1 you have complete control of the game there, even if you Brainstorm the same or differently. You'd be able to Force through whatever you want, as your hand had plenty of countermagic to deal with basically everything else (including the Wear//Tear, which you could Force even if you forgot Shatter mode, and Force would have resolved without your opponent having their own Force + running blue card). Your hand had double Misstep there as well, so even if you were concerned about your Brainstorm resolving, if your opponent is willing to commit using up their own Misstep + Misstep or Misstep + Flusterstorm to make sure it doesn't resolve (doesn't seem likely to me in that position), they're going to be down to like 1 card in hand, and you still have Force plus other cards. I also think at the point you've Brainstormed after playing the Mox you're kind of 'pot committed' to making the Show and Tell into Griselbrand play the next turn, so I would have Forced the Wear//Tear on the Mox at that point, or otherwise you're basically Brainstorm locked (or potentially worse) for the next 2-3 turns at a minimum.

Steve, how many mana sources are you running in this version? Is it up around 20-21+, or are you still down around 18? I think the mana bottleneck and missed land drops are often the number once thing holding Mentor decks back, when they fail (kind of illustrated by some of the losses in Weeks 4-6). The lowest mana count I've had with a Mentor deck is 20, which I'm at now in a 4C Gush version, and even though it's a GushBond deck that seems way too low, after having played 22-24 in the other versions I've tested (and liked more). Mana Crypt and Sol Ring are so good in any Mentor shell.

[fsecco]

Yeah, I really don't like how I played game three. I should have taken the Force of Will, not the Mental Misstep. That was just a poor play on my part. Also, seeing that Steve had the Wear/Tear, I shouldn't have played that Mox. I just played that whole game very poorly.

Even taking the Misstep there wasn't gonna cost you the game. But playing the Mox and not hitting a land on your Brainstorm did. If you didn't play the Mox and Brainstormed from Orchard I guess you win that game.

I mean, even if you took FoW, having that Mox blown off would still give Steve a few turns to crawl back to the game. If you waited another turn and Mox, Mox, Show and Tell, then you're good.

[Prospero]

Rich is one of the greats.  I have seen Rich play exceptionally high level Vintage, over the years we've all grown accustomed to it.  That game three was really just a statement about how any player, no matter how great, is still human.  We've all made mistakes. 

[brianpk80]

It's easy to overlook the fact as well that the "mistakes" Rich made only look that way in hindsight whereas prospectively, there was validity and solid reasoning behind every judgment call.  On the Thoughtseize, I may have taken the Force but taking the Misstep rendered Steve's entire hand 100% inoperable at that point: Force, no blue card, Wear//Tear, no ideal targets.  When I'm Duressed with Force + 1 blue card, I usually find myself feeling more incapacitated when the blue card is binned rather than Force itself.  Mental Misstep wasn't chosen because of the text on the card but more pertinently because it was the card needed to pitch to Force.

Secondly, the fact that Wear on Sapphire ended up working out against all odds doesn't mean it was the correct play at the time.  The risk of having egg on one's face if an opponent, who just Brainstormed and has the Orchard, lands an Oath of Druids with protection is too great.  The situation would be even more embarrassing if Rich were sandbagging Vault/Key.  If Steve hadn't drawn Lotus to both trigger Prowess and hardcast a second Force of Will on the Show and Tell, it would look like Rich had done everything brilliantly.  That's part of what makes Vintage what it is though.  You do a risk/reward assessment and a play with a 95%/5% success/failure ratio is always going to be the statistically "correct" play, but sometimes, you lose because you played correctly or the converse. 

The most devastating part of the night was seeing the parade of Wastelands against Dave Williams's Landstill.  That deck is a really insightful metagame choice and with a healthier mana base, I think it could have paid off 10-fold. 

[diophan]

I believe Rich admitted that taking the misstep was a mistake; with 2 misstep of your own there's no way it's just a mistake in hindsight to take misstep. Steve can much more easily topdeck a blue card to go with force of will than the force of will itself or another relevant counter. Anyway, as Nick said even great players make mistakes, as we've seen many times this season from pros and vintage players alike.

I agree that Dave's results this season have been really brutal. I almost always feels like he makes correct plays and is punished and often his opponent makes wrong plays and is rewarded.

[Smmenen]

Secondly, the fact that Wear on Sapphire ended up working out against all odds doesn't mean it was the correct play at the time.  The risk of having egg on one's face if an opponent, who just Brainstormed and has the Orchard, lands an Oath of Druids with protection is too great. 

Rich missed his 2nd land drop, which is why I did that.  If Rich had made his 2nd land drop, I wouldn't have done that. 

[brianpk80]

Secondly, the fact that Wear on Sapphire ended up working out against all odds doesn't mean it was the correct play at the time.  The risk of having egg on one's face if an opponent, who just Brainstormed and has the Orchard, lands an Oath of Druids with protection is too great. 

Rich missed his 2nd land drop, which is why I did that.  If Rich had made his 2nd land drop, I wouldn't have done that. 

I saw the match.     I like your newer build much better than last trimester's.  Good job. 

[brianpk80]

I believe Rich admitted that taking the misstep was a mistake; with 2 misstep of your own there's no way it's just a mistake in hindsight to take misstep. Steve can much more easily topdeck a blue card to go with force of will than the force of will itself or another relevant counter. Anyway, as Nick said even great players make mistakes, as we've seen many times this season from pros and vintage players alike.

Oh to be clear, I'm not saying mistakes weren't made, just that the magnitude is often misrepresented in hindsight.  I empathize with blue mages confronted these tough decisions and appreciate how much mental processing they consume that isn't always apparent on the outside looking in (re: the nasty crowd comments). 

[diophan]

Oh to be clear, I'm not saying mistakes weren't made, just that the magnitude is often misrepresented in hindsight.  I empathize with blue mages confronted these tough decisions and appreciate how much mental processing they consume that isn't always apparent on the outside looking in (re: the nasty crowd comments).  

Okay, fair enough, sorry for the misunderstanding. I agree all the comments about people punting are really obnoxious and ignore the fact that we all make mistakes every game.

I do think that Steve's play is correct there though. Unless Rich is playing some insane mind game, he cannot have brainstormed into mana source + oath, since then Rich would have just played the Oath out. Being down several cards and with Rich already having an Orchard Steve can't play to win the long game, so he has to hope to quickly race against Rich resolving a SnT/Oath. Killing the sapphire restricts Rich's ability to dig, and puts him 1 mana further from casting an Oath or Show and Tell. Rich is brainstorm locked and has to give Steve more tokens to do anything.

[dwpoker]

I believe Rich admitted that taking the misstep was a mistake; with 2 misstep of your own there's no way it's just a mistake in hindsight to take misstep. Steve can much more easily topdeck a blue card to go with force of will than the force of will itself or another relevant counter. Anyway, as Nick said even great players make mistakes, as we've seen many times this season from pros and vintage players alike.

I agree that Dave's results this season have been really brutal. I almost always feels like he makes correct plays and is punished and often his opponent makes wrong plays and is rewarded.

Thanks man. I've been playing my heart out but just haven't been getting any breaks. Hopefully I can pull off a 2-0 and avoid last place.

[dwpoker]

It's easy to overlook the fact as well that the "mistakes" Rich made only look that way in hindsight whereas prospectively, there was validity and solid reasoning behind every judgment call.  On the Thoughtseize, I may have taken the Force but taking the Misstep rendered Steve's entire hand 100% inoperable at that point: Force, no blue card, Wear//Tear, no ideal targets.  When I'm Duressed with Force + 1 blue card, I usually find myself feeling more incapacitated when the blue card is binned rather than Force itself.  Mental Misstep wasn't chosen because of the text on the card but more pertinently because it was the card needed to pitch to Force.

Secondly, the fact that Wear on Sapphire ended up working out against all odds doesn't mean it was the correct play at the time.  The risk of having egg on one's face if an opponent, who just Brainstormed and has the Orchard, lands an Oath of Druids with protection is too great.  The situation would be even more embarrassing if Rich were sandbagging Vault/Key.  If Steve hadn't drawn Lotus to both trigger Prowess and hardcast a second Force of Will on the Show and Tell, it would look like Rich had done everything brilliantly.  That's part of what makes Vintage what it is though.  You do a risk/reward assessment and a play with a 95%/5% success/failure ratio is always going to be the statistically "correct" play, but sometimes, you lose because you played correctly or the converse. 

The most devastating part of the night was seeing the parade of Wastelands against Dave Williams's Landstill.  That deck is a really insightful metagame choice and with a healthier mana base, I think it could have paid off 10-fold. 

My mana base isn't actually that nonstandard. I have 25 lands but only drew one colored source in game 3. The 2nd wasteland by him was used on a redundant copy of Factory which actually made me happy. I just happened to draw all 4 of them when it counted most. One colored land in those last turns and I turn that game into a blowout the other way by decaying his lord and blowing up his board. Hopefully things work out better the next two weeks. I predicted Merfolk from randy and loved plague and decay in that match up and feel good about my oath matchup vs Rich next week and love my matchup vs Bob in week 3.

[The Atog Lord]

feel good about my oath matchup vs Rich

Yeah, I am not looking forward to this match. Dave, your deck looks like a bunch of Oath-hate cards with some mana sources added in.

[vaughnbros]

The most devastating part of the night was seeing the parade of Wastelands against Dave Williams's Landstill.  That deck is a really insightful metagame choice and with a healthier mana base, I think it could have paid off 10-fold. 

My mana base isn't actually that nonstandard. I have 25 lands but only drew one colored source in game 3. The 2nd wasteland by him was used on a redundant copy of Factory which actually made me happy. I just happened to draw all 4 of them when it counted most. One colored land in those last turns and I turn that game into a blowout the other way by decaying his lord and blowing up his board.

I think its definitely a greedier mana base than traditional landstill lists given that you have 0 basic lands, and are attempting to play a large number of both abrupt decay and mana drain (of course 4 psuedo birds of paradise helps with this).  In this match up specifically if you had a single basic swamp (to go with your 4 deltas) you would not have been blown out so badly by the 1 wasteland.

[brianpk80]

My mana base isn't actually that nonstandard. I have 25 lands but only drew one colored source in game 3. The 2nd wasteland by him was used on a redundant copy of Factory which actually made me happy. I just happened to draw all 4 of them when it counted most.

Agreed--you didn't replicate the archetype inaccurately at all; the mana base is standard for BUG Landstill.  It was just a coincidence in that last week before EE2, some friends were having a discussion about how many Factories were really needed in a 3 color Standstill list and I kept saying that the full playset wasn't necessary because the increase in mana screw at any given point wasn't worth the increase in pressure post-Standstill (at which point you're already "winning," having succeeded in accomplishing the initial goal of resolving SS). 

One colored land in those last turns and I turn that game into a blowout the other way by decaying his lord and blowing up his board.

Yea, it was variance to have drawn all 4.  I was pulling for you and wanted to see all those Merfolk taught an unforgettable lesson. 

[jcb193]

Well, the prevalence of Belcher on VSL hasn't made the MTGO dailies any easier.  I swear it seems like at least one of your four opponents on a MTGO 4-rounder is going to be Belcher....nothing like dropping at least 1 game to a 1-2 turn kill.  Practice those coin flips!

Sad to see such a short workshops tenure, but I'm really digging the commentary.  

[dwpoker]

My mana base isn't actually that nonstandard. I have 25 lands but only drew one colored source in game 3. The 2nd wasteland by him was used on a redundant copy of Factory which actually made me happy. I just happened to draw all 4 of them when it counted most.

Agreed--you didn't replicate the archetype inaccurately at all; the mana base is standard for BUG Landstill.  It was just a coincidence in that last week before EE2, some friends were having a discussion about how many Factories were really needed in a 3 color Standstill list and I kept saying that the full playset wasn't necessary because the increase in mana screw at any given point wasn't worth the increase in pressure post-Standstill (at which point you're already "winning," having succeeded in accomplishing the initial goal of resolving SS). 

One colored land in those last turns and I turn that game into a blowout the other way by decaying his lord and blowing up his board.

Yea, it was variance to have drawn all 4.  I was pulling for you and wanted to see all those Merfolk taught an unforgettable lesson. 

My biggest regret is Factory #4 over another colored land and a that is a change I thought about after I submitted 30 mins before we began. I had to hope it wouldn't bite me in the ass.