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Author Topic: Reserve List Card Spike?  (Read 7672 times)
Twiedel
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« Reply #30 on: February 25, 2016, 08:24:46 am »

Oh as far as I know, the intent is to have a weak US dollar in order to promote US exports...

The strong dollar has fueled a lot of my buying, at least.  From H's comments, I'd believe it has fueled his as well.  The euro dipped below $1.10 again today.  Take advantage of it while it lasts.

And this is indeed my pain. Miss the times when I could pick up Vintage staples for the same virtual price in USD instead of EUR and get that nice 30-40% off ( 1.3 - 1.4$ to 1€ was when I really bought a lot). Right now it is actually a lot cheaper to pick up stuff in Europe, and even more so for Americans.

But generally speaking, I don't really see that much of a price increase going on. Modern was pushed over the top with several GPs and PTs, and Moder Masters 1 was likely underprinted. Plus you have fetchlands and shocks reprinted in regular sets to make the decks pretty accessable to a lot of players. The reserved list prices for *normal* cards like Metalworker and Cradle can only increase if there is really a growth in the player base. This would happen if they brought down the reserve list, and we'd surely see an increase after an initial drop that makes the formats more accessable. But what I see right now is that Legacy (and Vintage) will stay as expensive as ever, I expected the influx of new players to be very small.

That said... go and pick up old school cards - THOSE are the real deal Smile
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jcb193
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« Reply #31 on: February 25, 2016, 08:51:29 am »

Well, back in the early/mid 2000s there was a huge exodus of vintage cards from America to Europe when the dollar was weak and the American vintage scene was struggling.

I guess some of those cards are coming back home Smile
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H
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« Reply #32 on: February 25, 2016, 09:21:20 am »

That said... go and pick up old school cards - THOSE are the real deal Smile

That's why I am glad that here in the Us most Old School events here allow FBB cards.  Beta is just such a small run and Unlimited isn't much higher (by modern standards).  Even Alpha, Beta and Unlimited together is a drop in the bucket compared to Revised plus FBBs.

Some of these spikes are pretty rough and it's super easy to buy things out with such low supply.

By the way, I'm happy to take any FBB stuff of your hands, if you want,  Wink  Very Happy
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gkraigher
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« Reply #33 on: February 25, 2016, 04:47:49 pm »

I had most of the cards I wanted, but it did force me to buy 5 English Chains of Mephistopheles (I kept finding them for $250 so I kept buying) and an English the Abyss.

I've always loved the Abyss and found a nice affinity list in Legacy that runs 4 Mox Opal and 3 Vault of Whispers.  With the rise of creature based decks in Legacy (Eldrazi, Death and Taxes, Delver), I'm getting a hard-on just thinking about windmill slamming that card onto the table.  

Oh yeah, and it's an old school card.  


Quote
The reserved list prices for *normal* cards like Metalworker and Cradle can only increase if there is really a growth in the player base. This would happen if they brought down the reserve list, and we'd surely see an increase after an initial drop that makes the formats more accessable.

Twiedel,

I respectfully disagree with your statement.  I think if they did away with the reserve list, and reprinted blue dual lands, the diversity in the metagame would actually decrease.  I think Legacy tournamnets would consist of a bunch of players all showing up with the same blue cards in their decks because "blue is the best."  However, if they reprint cards like Trinisphere, Heritage Druid, Deathrite Shaman, etc. these fringe decks that involve Metalworker and Gaea's Cradle will show up more often by the players who cannot afford the blue dual lands.  

So, in a way, the higher the blue dual lands go the better it is for the diversity of the field.  

Things like the Eldrazi are healthy for the format.  Things like reprinting blue dual lands aren't.  
« Last Edit: February 25, 2016, 04:56:22 pm by gkraigher » Logged
Khahan
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« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2016, 10:49:42 am »

Quote from: gkraigher link=topic=48409.msg671446#msg671446 date=1456436869


[quote
The reserved list prices for *normal* cards like Metalworker and Cradle can only increase if there is really a growth in the player base. This would happen if they brought down the reserve list, and we'd surely see an increase after an initial drop that makes the formats more accessable.

Twiedel,

I respectfully disagree with your statement.  I think if they did away with the reserve list, and reprinted blue dual lands, the diversity in the metagame would actually decrease.  I think Legacy tournamnets would consist of a bunch of players all showing up with the same blue cards in their decks because "blue is the best."  However, if they reprint cards like Trinisphere, Heritage Druid, Deathrite Shaman, etc. these fringe decks that involve Metalworker and Gaea's Cradle will show up more often by the players who cannot afford the blue dual lands.  

So, in a way, the higher the blue dual lands go the better it is for the diversity of the field.  

Things like the Eldrazi are healthy for the format.  Things like reprinting blue dual lands aren't.  

You can go to free to play sites like cockatrice where anybody can play with any card ever made and see that your guess is simply not true.  Even when any card is available and 'blue is the best' you still get inundated on cockatrice with merfolk, shops, dredge, g/b control, white equipment based decks.   I've had nights where I've sat down for 5-8 games and not seen another blue based deck.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 10:18:50 am by Khahan » Logged

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Varal
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« Reply #35 on: March 02, 2016, 04:01:35 pm »

You can go to free to play sites like cockatrice where anybody can play with any card ever made and see that your guess is simply not true.  Even when any card is available and 'blue is the best' you still get inundated on cockatrice with merfolk, shops, dredge, g/b control, white equipment based decks.   I've had nights where I've sat down for 5-8 games and not seen another blue based deck.

Most people use those softwares to test their decks before a tournament or before buying. This mean availability still has an impact on what you play against.
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ben_berry
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« Reply #36 on: March 02, 2016, 09:13:16 pm »

I think if they did away with the reserve list, and reprinted blue dual lands, the diversity in the metagame would actually decrease.  I think Legacy tournamnets would consist of a bunch of players all showing up with the same blue cards in their decks because "blue is the best."  


In the Channel Fireball article about the reserve list Steve Guillerm states "Legacy tournaments would have to near a player count of 100,000 before there’d be a serious concern about card availability." Unless he's wrong, I certainly don't know enough to say one way or the other, card availability isn't currently forcing diversity.
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desolutionist
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« Reply #37 on: March 02, 2016, 09:44:32 pm »

5 years ago, there was 6 million magic players in 75 countries. 5 years ago, there was 140,000 magic online accounts. There could easily be 100,000 Legacy players
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« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2016, 10:38:40 am »

You can go to free to play sites like cockatrice where anybody can play with any card ever made and see that your guess is simply not true.  Even when any card is available and 'blue is the best' you still get inundated on cockatrice with merfolk, shops, dredge, g/b control, white equipment based decks.   I've had nights where I've sat down for 5-8 games and not seen another blue based deck.

Most people use those softwares to test their decks before a tournament or before buying. This mean availability still has an impact on what you play against.

Yes, availability has an impact. Because they have the availability of any card they are willing to put together the deck and playtest it to see if its viable.  And they have to do it this way because cards prices are so ridiculously high right now that its not feasible to do it any other way.  The innovation is happening in people's minds. The step to bring innovation out of minds and into the real world is happening only where there is availability to do so.

My big beef with these prices spikes and the general pricing of high end cards right now is that I feel the price is artificial.  Its a closed market that has been manipulated.
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Twiedel
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« Reply #39 on: March 04, 2016, 09:50:00 am »


Quote
The reserved list prices for *normal* cards like Metalworker and Cradle can only increase if there is really a growth in the player base. This would happen if they brought down the reserve list, and we'd surely see an increase after an initial drop that makes the formats more accessable.

Twiedel,

I respectfully disagree with your statement.  I think if they did away with the reserve list, and reprinted blue dual lands, the diversity in the metagame would actually decrease.  I think Legacy tournamnets would consist of a bunch of players all showing up with the same blue cards in their decks because "blue is the best."  However, if they reprint cards like Trinisphere, Heritage Druid, Deathrite Shaman, etc. these fringe decks that involve Metalworker and Gaea's Cradle will show up more often by the players who cannot afford the blue dual lands.  

So, in a way, the higher the blue dual lands go the better it is for the diversity of the field.  

Things like the Eldrazi are healthy for the format.  Things like reprinting blue dual lands aren't.  

Hmm this is a pretty interesting point of view, thanks for challenging my conclusions. I guess my basic premise is that people play nonblue decks because they actually like them. So my thinking is like "2% of the Legacy players really love Metalworker decks, so unless it gets a power boost, if the player base doubles we'll have twice as many players tryign to get Metalworkers."
Thus, using this approach there would have to be a lot more players in total for some cards to really go up - and I don't see that happening (at least no **significant** increase).

Your approach seems to be that there are indeed players entering but also players shifting away from e.g. Blue because of pricing, and they'll play other, cheaper decks. This will then lead to a rise of the rares currently not that sought after because they are an alternative to the absurdly expensive blue deck cards.

To be honest, I've never seen something like this happening. When people that were playing blue sold off their blue stuff, they basically just quit Magic / Legacy - at least gradually over a few months. And people picking up a format with the intention of not going for Tier 1 anyway because it's too expensive ... should be a really really low number.

But anyway, I think you are right that these are effects that will happen. Where we disagree is the numbers. Only time can tell...
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MirariKnight
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« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2016, 12:41:34 pm »

I'm gonna disagree with the basic premise that large numbers of people playing worse decks because of card availability is a good thing. If all the cards were reasonably priced, a significant portion of people who are playing on a budget would upgrade. So the "format diversity" that is created is artificial. It's impure. It means that no one actually plays that format; instead they play a bastardization of that format based on what cards people have access to. If you think that blue is the best deck by miles, and that this leads to decreased format diversity, that means that there is something fundamentally wrong with the format. That something could potentially be fixed by B/R changes. But artificially "banning" cards from players because they cost too much and you don't mind the side effects is terrible. If people want to play Metalworker, or Elves, or whatever in Legacy, it should be because they want to do so and/or because that deck is a good choice. It shouldn't be because we want to keep the cost of the actual good cards high enough to essentially ban them from a significant portion of the player base.

Side note: I think a very significant amount of people play Legacy (and Vintage) because they want to play blue, with the old good cards including the Duals. I'd assume very few people are excited about playing Eldrazi in Legacy, except those who built a modern deck and now think they have a cheap option to compete.
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bactgudz
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« Reply #41 on: March 04, 2016, 06:35:33 pm »

I'm gonna disagree with the basic premise that large numbers of people playing worse decks because of card availability is a good thing. If all the cards were reasonably priced, a significant portion of people who are playing on a budget would upgrade. So the "format diversity" that is created is artificial. It's impure. It means that no one actually plays that format; instead they play a bastardization of that format based on what cards people have access to. If you think that blue is the best deck by miles, and that this leads to decreased format diversity, that means that there is something fundamentally wrong with the format. That something could potentially be fixed by B/R changes. But artificially "banning" cards from players because they cost too much and you don't mind the side effects is terrible. If people want to play Metalworker, or Elves, or whatever in Legacy, it should be because they want to do so and/or because that deck is a good choice. It shouldn't be because we want to keep the cost of the actual good cards high enough to essentially ban them from a significant portion of the player base.

Side note: I think a very significant amount of people play Legacy (and Vintage) because they want to play blue, with the old good cards including the Duals. I'd assume very few people are excited about playing Eldrazi in Legacy, except those who built a modern deck and now think they have a cheap option to compete.

You are operating under the false assumption that decks are somehow well ordered in terms of how good they are.  This sentiment being completely wrong, yet widely held is in fact why budget constraints do lead to increased format diversity and competition, they help breed creativity rather than just sheeples.  It's not about a deck actually being better than all others, the problem is that people falsely perceive it as always the best and the game is too complex to simply "see" an alternative solution.  There are always people who will not be constrained at all by the budget, you will not have a lack of competition from that angle.  But in a game this complex there is a danger of lack of real competition due to inbreeding.  It may take a lot of what you call "worse decks" to find something, but when found this makes the competition as a whole stronger...you do realize don't you that the way large mtg tournaments are structured the "average match" is played well above the "average performing deck"?
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 06:48:24 pm by bactgudz » Logged
ben_berry
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« Reply #42 on: March 04, 2016, 07:34:09 pm »

So people will be forced to brew decks with substandard cards because they can't afford the good ones. And this will lead to new and innovative decks? I'm not sure I agree. I think it will lead to people trying to enter the format and giving up as they consistently underperform. Meanwhile an individual who has a top tier deck can't brew because they've put everything they have into the current deck and can't afford a second. I think it would be interesting to run a survey to get some data to test hypotheses against but I'm not in the position to run one sucessfully.
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Godder
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« Reply #43 on: March 04, 2016, 08:26:13 pm »

These aren't mutually exclusive alternatives.
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