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Author Topic: MTGO P9 Metagame Breakdown: January Edition  (Read 1152 times)
Chubby Rain
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« on: February 23, 2016, 12:43:04 am »

I had considered doing a full article and analysis about this but life happens on occasion. Major props to Ryan Eberhart (Diophan) for his help in collecting the data.

TLDR: Many viable archetypes with significant diversity. Gush was statistically the best archetype with Oath and Hatebears virtually tied for the worst.

Archetype - Number (% of Metagame) - Match Win %
Shops - 21 (20.4%) - 49.6%
Ritual Storm - 16 (15.5%) - 51.1%
Dredge - 16 (15.5%) - 50.5%
Gush - 15 (14.6%) - 58.2%
Oath - 10 (9.7%) - 43.4%
Big Blue* - 8 (7.8%) - 52.0%
Hatebears - 5 (4.9%) - 43.8%
Other** - 12 (11.7%) - N/A

*Loose category of TfK + Tinker/Robot + Yawgmoth's Will
**Other archetypes represented by less than 5 decks

Breaking down the major archetypes further:

Shops: Ravager 8-50.5% MWP, Aggro (Montolio's list) 5-48.3%, Tiny Robots 4-45.8%, Other 4-50.0%
Dredge: Traditional Antihate 9-51.9%, Pitch 5-50.0%, Other 2-45.5%
Ritual Storm: All of these were Dark Petition variants and very similar
Gush: Mentor 11-57.7%, Delver 3 - 61.9%, Gush Tendrils 1-50.0%
Oath: Odd Oath 5-51.6%, Other 5-31.8%

Top 16 lists here: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/vintage-premier-2016-01-31

Make of these what you will.

Shameless Plug: Mentor CounterTop was 2/2 on making the top 16.  Smile Unfortunately, Vasu and I were 0/2 in our win-and-ins.  Sad


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Smmenen
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2016, 01:34:47 am »

Awesome!  Thank you for doing this (and to Ryan). 
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MirariKnight
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Lotus, YawgWill, Lotus, Go

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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2016, 02:57:01 pm »

Awesome data, I know that must have been a pain to collect. Thanks guys!!!

Gush's win percentage is surprising given how relatively few people played it.
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diophan
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2016, 03:37:19 pm »

Gush's win percentage is surprising given how relatively few people played it.

Actually I think the fact that few people played it is the reason for the win percentage:

*People who pick up flavor of the month decks generally bring down its win percentage since they have little experience with the deck. See storm and oath.
*As a corollary to this, I expect the gush pilots for the most part were very experienced.
*Despite still being a good deck, it wasn't being gunned for. Therefore, fewer people had sideboard hate for gush decks (not that there's a lot to begin with) and didn't chose their decks to beat gush.
*Smaller sample sizes can have more skewed results. A few people doing well with the deck had a big influence on its win percentage.
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data
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2016, 04:11:22 pm »

Thanks for the work on the results Matt and Ryan.  I agree with Ryan's logic.
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