Looking forward to it!

Might be interesting at some point (if they find interest waning) to have predetermined archetype matchups.  Therefore each player has to play each deck style, and they can put their own spin on the deck, or even exploit their opponent's inexperience with an archetype.  I found it very interesting to see David Ochoa's unique shops builds, and even more interesting to see some of the pros making shops mistakes.  Something for everyone.

The gentleman's blue-on-blue matchup certainly was one of the least entertaining of the entire season.
  

First of all, thank you both for putting the time in to make these calculations.  I find it very interesting and I know it's a thankless job.  

I don't want to start another B/R restriction hijack, but with VSL and the ubiquitous shops vs blue mentality right now, it seems like we are in the age of frequent Vintage restriction assessment.  It's impossible to claim that biases do not exist in these discussions (my own, even here).  Last month Gush put up more egregious numbers, and yet nothing was said. I know month to month results aren't statistically profound, and neither is the VSL inbred micrometagame, and yet these discussions persist.  MTGO at least offers a large metagame and somewhat level financial playing field (although I think Oath is underrepresented due to unique card cost).  

This month's Shops:  (22.9%)  61.2 MWP%
Last months Gush: (14.6%) 58.2 MWP%    

Is there an official ratio we should be using that might make these discussions a little less open to player bias?  What do you think it should be?

Great work guys. Thank you-

Well, back in the early/mid 2000s there was a huge exodus of vintage cards from America to Europe when the dollar was weak and the American vintage scene was struggling.

I guess some of those cards are coming back home

How did they reprint Memory Jar? Is mythic exempt?

We're just getting into scary times I think.  This is one of the most major price spikes (or should we say run) in 20yrs, and every time I think we are at the top of a temporary bubble (like I did Fall of 2015), we have another major price spike on top of that.  It's getting kind of ridiculous that perennial $5 cards are now approaching $50.  And not just a single "discovered" card here and there, but whole batches of cards.  Worst of all, it is the dual devils of speculation AND lack of supply.  Just look at what a little bit of publicity last fall did to the Old School Magic format.  Pretty much any card from Arabian, Legends, or Antiquities doubled or more.

It's just unsustainable (been saying that for years, alas), as there is NO new supply coming into the market, and now there is a massive worldwide demand (collectors vs Vintage vs commanders).  The only thing that can soften the prices for the common people are:

Top notch counterfeits
Legalizing Collector's edition (still not a permanent solution)
Printing effective Vintage hate (which has never been proven to work)
...or paper vintage stagnating.  

There's just no other way to look at it

Wizards has no incentive (financial or ethical) to make reprints or keep vintage alive.  The only benefit is the marketing powers of showing kids that Magic cards can be worth up to tens of thousands of dollars.  Every day the topic of reprints comes up, but I just don't see them risking massive lawsuits to please a community that they essentially left for dead years ago.  Vintage is a thorn in their side.  

Cube and Commander did change all this though, as it gave tons of value (financial and playability) to a TON of mid-tier or past their prime cards.

But once again, until Magic shifts totally to digital, I don't see that they have any outs to the problem. Unless, maybe, they announced that they were reprinting cards YEARS in the future.  That might soften the blow.  The problem is, that they haven't really ever even acknowledged that it is a problem.  Or at least a problem that they care about.    

Prospero is right.  At a certain point, the prospect of trying to buy into Vintage will become impossible.  We're a full generation past people that witnessed the birth of Black Lotus.  In the 90s we used to joke about how the barrier to Type 1 was unscaleable (back then buying into a loaded Beta Vintage deck was $1000-$2000).  People have money now, but buying all the peripheral stuff is now expensive too.  A $2000 manabase looks like a steal, when you put it against a single sideboard Tabernacle ($700).  Even obtaining cards you MIGHT need can cost thousands. That's a pretty intimidating hill to climb.  

Obtaining the power nine used to be a regular vintage goal. Now just grabbing a few sideboard cards can be a serious accomplishment.

I mentioned this to Andy, but definitely feel the tournament announcement forum could use some organization. If nothing else, at least a standard format for announcements. State, city, date, etc.

Some of us live in places where we could realistically drive to five different states for a tourney without issue, so being able to see this at a glance would be nice.

Doesn't even need to be fancy or interactive. Just easy to see ab understand, and maybe mention nearby metro areas.

I have to agree with this. Moxes have appreciated at a much lower pace the last 5+ years compared to cards like wasteland, FoW, dual lands, chains, moat, etc.  I would also guess that moxes are probably one of the last major cards a person will purchase.

I noticed this too. Some items I had been listing at pretty absurd levels, sold that night. And the run on old school magic staples has been fascinating too. It really seems like magic is immune to bubbles. Everytime I think old cards have peaked, we see another pop. I can't imagine having to start from scratch. It truly would be a $10,000 to 20,000.

It is a shame that the cheapest mama base in vintage is $1000-$2000.

I know this is a little OT, but was curious if Wizards ever debated reprinting dual lands as a legendary land. Seems like it would be all format playable, open up some interesting design space and usage, and maybe help bridge supply gap.

I love this format.  It's very swingy, but this can be a fun thing too (last minute comebacks).  I think for me the thing I enjoy most is that there isn't a lot of spell durdling (fetches, cantrips, tutoring), the absence of Force of Will, and if you are going to die, you see it coming, but you have a chance to break it.  It's not a perman-lock with Stax, or a 10 token army.  It's a Serra Angel coming across for four a turn.  Do you have the STP?  The Wrath?  The control magic?

And shockingly enough, it's not a format that can be figured out....and you can even throw in a pet card or two and it won't totally wreck your deck.   

I wish it were more common.  Great format.  Simple, relaxing, and satisfying with a variety of decks and the games can be super quick, or an epic battle.  Of course the occasional Black Vise with triple Strip Mine happens, but more often than not a busted opening can be counter-acted.   

During all the proxy/playtest hubbub, was there any reference to the playability of collectors edition?

Thanks Andy.  I know you had begrudgingly run Lotv in the past, but I assumed it was mostly for Dredge.  I've seen people bring in Relic or Crypt for the Mirror on occasion, but never thought of Lotv for a mirror match.  Seemed too narrow and too much of a tempo loss for a narrow buffer against LD.  But LSV ran a Tomb of Yawgmoth, which definitely makes it more castable.  I guess the added utility of working against HBW and Modular now (instead of just Crucible) makes it worth the slot.  

I can't pull up LSV's Stax list right now (MTG site seems to be down for a few of the decklists), but I was surprised to see him bring in Leyline of the Void for the mirror.  Was he that short of things to bring in, or have other shops players had success with this?  I know his mana base supports it much more easily than most shops lists, but was curious if anyone else likes this move?

I was hoping more like Anakin before he goes to the Dark Side

You're now 25% of the way there!!!

Not that any store would go to this length to preserve the ability to offer vintage proxy tournaments, but couldn't they just create a subsidiary business that their parent company leases space to for gaming?

Company #1- Joe's Local Gaming Store- sells product and runs sanctioned tournaments
Company #2- Joe's Gaming Space (rents space from Joe's)

Is collectors edition considered proxies?

I don't think it's that playable, but I LOVE the fact that they are willing to experiment with cards in this space......

Great report!  I enjoyed reading about your adventures with an uncommon deck.  Very refreshing!!!

I was thinking more along the lines of reprinting dual lands, but using <> mana as a differentiator.

Any chance of seeing this someday?  Does it get around reprint policy?   

T: Add <> to your mana pool.
T: Search your library for a forest or mountain

Make it interesting, public and relevant.

For instance a bunch of sealed ice age packs (Snowland side) versus Ugin and Karn liberated (<>=colorless side).

I personally love the concept of this being a "sixth mana", but I feel like that might be a little too ambitious. But they could be paving the way for that and seeing how it works. I personally feel this might be them setting the framework for a dipping of their toes in the concept of new duals, but we shall see. Either way, could be exciting if it's colorless only and not snow mana!

That said, I feel like if this was truly "colorless mana" it would have a more iconic  mana symbol and also a more iconic land. But who knows.....

If this takes off, could be a way to backdoor in some new duals.  Obviously not nearly as versatile or powerful as the originals, but a step in that direction.

I'm not going to pretend to understand the math you mentioned, and I've rarely played dredge, but I did enjoy reading your post. Didn't want it to go unrecognized. I like the concept of playing LoA in dredge. Thanks for explaining it.

I enjoyed this old read Steve, thanks for sharing.

I too wish they could figure out a way to make the Lich mechanic work.  It was such a fascinating concept to me back in the day.  Maybe some sort of enchantment that if your life becomes zero, your life total instead converts to your permanents total, and you have to sacrifice one permanent each turn for upkeep. 

Perhaps, but I feel like this has been the Type 1 refrain for almost 15yrs now.  Even when beta moxes were $60-$100, all I ever heard at tournaments (while trying in vain to convert type 2 players) was how expensive type 1 was.  15 years ago it wasn't common to spend thousands of dollars on a hobby. Today it is much more common (whether tweaking a car, building a home theater, or investing in legos).  While I agree that $20,000 decks seem prohibitively expensive, I also remember back in the late 90s that owning a $2000 deck was considered ludicrous.  Though when you think about it, it's not that crazy. Some Magic players spend dozens of hours a week on Magic, and for years and years.   

I do agree that at some point we have to hit critical mass, but I thought we hit it back in 2008 (and hence sold a ton of stuff off), and look at how wrong that timing was....

I would be curious to see some aggregate on whether tournaments are truly becoming extinct or not. Fortunately I live in the Northeast, and if it wasn't for a newborn, I would pretty much have the opportunity to play in a tournament in the 2 hour radius every other weekend.  

First of all I applaud the focus on prize based tournaments, and think Vintage only promos as prizes would be a cool second step  

I have no idea what the worldwide MTGO vintage player base is, but I am curious what introducing a set of power into the MTGO supply every month will do to power prices, as I am guessing most of them will be sold, as there is no need for extra cards on MTGO, and proxy tourneys don't exist, so I doubt too many prizes will be given out to people that don't already have power.    Normally a small introduction of supply wouldn't affect too much, but I am guessing the total Vintage pool is pretty small.  Would a 108 new pieces of power a year be pretty substantial??  

Randy beuhler's incessant tirades against chalice were anything but subtle. He shoehorned his anti chalice opinions into almost every match he commentated- workshops or not.  That said, I don't personally miss chalice, I just miss chalice in the format. And I agree that while DTT would likely eventually get restricted, it certainly seems like it was positioned as a consolation prize.