What's the indicator for who wins the control match?

[Hi-Val]

In the days of yore, Chapin and Weissman found that whoever resolved Ancestral Recall in the Keeper mirror match won, all the time. I'm wondering if this is still the case. When we look at a Control Slaver or Gifts mirror match, what is the indicator where you say "yep, he just won". Is it whoever resolves more Brainstorms and combines them with shuffle effects? Is it whoever wins the big fight over a draw spell? Is it the person with more mana on the table at a given time?

Recently I've been thinking that it's whoever resolves Mana Drain first, but that may make players greedy and then end up tapped out when their opponent blows them out. Is there an indicator these days even? What playstyle results in a win? I've been really digging Brian Demars' advice to hang onto brainstorms like a miser lately, is that marginal card advantage that comes from BS enough to put it over?

[Meddling Mike]

I don't think that there is really a hard and fast rule for who's winning the control matchup, but the best indicator is usually who wins the first big counter war. A counter war is usually initiated by an important spell(a counter war over a brainstorm is rare) so if it resolves it obviously tips the scales heavily in favor of the person playing the spell and tends to build momentum from there. If not, the player who countered the spell can now go back to his turn with at least some certainty that the opponent is not holding any more counters, and often times he now has some drain mana with which to start casting his own important spells.

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

Mana advantage. You can't do shit without mana. This also implies that the first person to resolve a mana drain will have the upper hand (basically what MM said). The format has gotten so ridiculous that control decks can win by cating basically 1 spell. Winning the mana war means you can tap to play your sepll EoT and protect it with a drain. The person who has a bigger mana advantage has a huge advantage in the control mirror (ie, the one who has fewer mana sources is always playing "catch-up").

Ofcourse that's not to say card selection/card manipulation isn't important. I just think that once you have your mana developed, the rest of your deck will flow naturally.

-Bob

[Gabethebabe]

I agree totally with what Bob says. It is mana that makes you win or lose control mirror matches. Being able to win counterwars in the early game depends on who has the most pitch magic in hand. But if you are able to develop you mana more quickly (couple of moxes, the o-so-vital Sapphire or Lotus, a resolved Walk) you are able to win counterwars because you have Drains on-line as well.

[Grand Inquisitor]

I picture three general scenarios that show how the control matchup can play out:

1)  As Clown mentioned, control can win by casting one spell.  More often than not that card is Tinker.  This is the card that requires the least amount of early investment (besides Ancestral Recall) and gives the maximum effect.  Either DSC, Slaver, or Titan can all end a match on site.  Sometimes it's something less dramatic, like Ancestral Recall, or maybe even Intuition while holding AK (draw 7).  I don't mention gifts since it's much more likely that these other three cards will resolve before mana drain mana is set up.  Tinker is the extreme example, since it's not just card advantage, but instead an actual threat to board position, but all three can happen early and tilt the game to an irrecoverable advantage with ease.

2)  In the last sentence above I mention 'not just card advantage', and goes back to one of the better concepts I've seen printed on SCG, by Smennen: the ability for a deck to convert resources back and forth between card advantage and tempo.  The most basic example I can think of is casting moxen while holding LoA.  Here is a clear choice by a player to convert hand into mana where there isn't any opportunity cost (not missing a land drop, exception: chalice for 0).

This is similar to what Clown is saying about mana development, but it works both ways.  Early expansion in the control mirror is good, but only if you can leverage it into 'threats'.  On the other hand, I've lost games where I've had great stuff, but was forced to lose advantage by having to FoW pitching drains because I didn't have resources to cast and drain in the same turn.  I also think this is why holding brainstorm works well in the control matchup.  If your grip has lots of land/moxen, or lots of gas, you can search for the desired cards either before or after a big counterwar in order to best exploit the situation using tempo or card advantage, whichever is needed.

3)  Sometimes the control matchup actually reaches the late game (survives a few major counter wars), and this is where the third factor comes into play: density.  I define density as the frequency of cards in your deck which are castable and (at least) replace themselves, i.e. topdeck quality.  This is why a deck like Sensei was so dangerous once it developed its mana base in the control matchup.  With the exception of helms, every draw was a card that would push you further towards the combo (as opposed to something like echoing truth or pithing needle).  More than this, Deep Analysis played double duty (as does recoup).  You may think this seems like every deck, but you must also realize that Sensei only runs 22 mana sources compared with the 24-25 of most control decks.  Increasing the number of fetchlands, and decreasing the number of -1 tutors (mystical, vamp) also gives your deck density by increasing the number of good topdecks you have later in the game.  Of course these more streamlined lists (I'd also quality Hulk, GAT, combo Oath) pay the price against stax and fish, but they have an advantage if the game reaches the late game and they can develop their mana.

[Anusien]

Outside of Vintage, the catchphrase seems to be that whoever misses a land drop first loses the control mirror.  Now obviously, we eschew silly things like "lands" in this format, but I'd have to echo the mana advantage sentiment.  There's even an intense focus on lands and Sapphire as opposed to off-color Moxen.  The ability to Drain on turn 1, and to cast draw spells + counter in subsequent turns provides such a fundamentally huge advantage.

[forests failed you]

Generally it isn't about one particular spell or sequence of events.  Control mirrors are generally won based upon who plays smarter and makes the tightest use of their resources.  The control mirror is all about numbers;  how much mana you have to invest on your turn weighted against how much mana you need to leave open on your opponent's turn.  Mana advantage is extremely important, but also utalizing it is key.  I've been out mana'd and out bombed many a time and still pulled out the game because my opponent was sloppy and I made very fetch, every mana, and every card count. 

In the CS Mirror match usually the first person to resolve a Shaman tends to win.  I can't tell you how many times I've DT'd for that guy over Recall or Tinker.  The ability of an activated that guy, to have more mana in play than an opponent is so good it is stupid.  G shaman ensures you win the counter wars at opponent's EoT.

So, yeah.  Mana and maximizing the impact of every single card and activated ability is how you win the control match up with a control deck. 

Also, I generally find that unless somebody is really busted; the more patient player wins.  Whoever doesn't play cards on their turn, makes land drops, develops mana and hand.  Control Mirrors are truly won by doing all of the subtle things to perfection and waiting until you know you can win and then striking.

[Machinus]

Also, I generally find that unless somebody is really busted; the more patient player wins.

It seems counterintuitive in Vintage, but I think this is true. Yet another reason why we should have some video coverage done.

[Vegeta2711]

This is easy. The first one to make a major mistake loses. Typically that's why a large Mana Drain resolution still wins games and why your be able to gain a large card advantage over the opponent.

However if neither player makes any clear mistakes, it'll typically come down to who spends more time keeping a stable mana base and draws Ancestral Recall.

[sean1i0]

This is pretty obvious and maybe that's why no one's mentioned it yet, but whoever resolves a broken Yawgmoth's Will wins.  Even if you've had a shitty game, if you resolve a broken Will, assuming of course that you play competently, I find it really hard to believe that you'll lose.

[forests failed you]

This is easy. The first one to make a major mistake loses. Typically that's why a large Mana Drain resolution still wins games and why your be able to gain a large card advantage over the opponent.

However if neither player makes any clear mistakes, it'll typically come down to who spends more time keeping a stable mana base and draws Ancestral Recall.

I disagree.  If a player makes a major mistake it shouldn't even count because they are fucking awful and that means nothing.  A control mirror between two good players is won by the player who does the most little things right.  Its all about waiting to resolve spells that you can protect, and protect yourself from their spells in the meantime.  If you read the article "4 tips for playing Mana Drain" that I wrote for SCG, in a closely contested game the player who does the most of those things right will usually win the majority of the time. 

However, there are a lot of smaller indicators.  A player with a keepable hand with Lotus on the play almost always wins the game;  but I count that as being busted.  With Slaver I've won 43 of the past 44 tournament games where I have had Lotus on the play.  Resolving Yawgmoth's Will doesn't even count because the game is almost always over after that.  In a Slaver mirror resolving Shaman usually wins the game.  However, in general the first player to either make a stop, that is sucessfully stop an opponent from resolving a bomb, or the first player to resolve a key spell usually wins.  In general, the first player to resolve a spell with a casting cost higher than three tends to win.  Other than Force of Will.  That is why it is so important not to walk into Drain, because it gives them a lot of Mana to play with in order to cast two key spells in one turn, one of which will most likely resolve.  There are two kinds of Control Mirrors sometimes the mirror is tempo based, and sometimes it is a war of attrition.  Either way you have to adjust your game plan accordingly. 

[Vegeta2711]

This is easy. The first one to make a major mistake loses. Typically that's why a large Mana Drain resolution still wins games and why your be able to gain a large card advantage over the opponent.

However if neither player makes any clear mistakes, it'll typically come down to who spends more time keeping a stable mana base and draws Ancestral Recall.

I disagree.  If a player makes a major mistake it shouldn't even count because they are fucking awful and that means nothing.  A control mirror between two good players is won by the player who does the most little things right.  Its all about waiting to resolve spells that you can protect, and protect yourself from their spells in the meantime.  If you read the article "4 tips for playing Mana Drain" that I wrote for SCG, in a closely contested game the player who does the most of those things right will usually win the majority of the time. 

However, there are a lot of smaller indicators.  A player with a keepable hand with Lotus on the play almost always wins the game;  but I count that as being busted.  With Slaver I've won 43 of the past 44 tournament games where I have had Lotus on the play.  Resolving Yawgmoth's Will doesn't even count because the game is almost always over after that.  In a Slaver mirror resolving Shaman usually wins the game.  However, in general the first player to either make a stop, that is sucessfully stop an opponent from resolving a bomb, or the first player to resolve a key spell usually wins.  In general, the first player to resolve a spell with a casting cost higher than three tends to win.  Other than Force of Will.  That is why it is so important not to walk into Drain, because it gives them a lot of Mana to play with in order to cast two key spells in one turn, one of which will most likely resolve.  There are two kinds of Control Mirrors sometimes the mirror is tempo based, and sometimes it is a war of attrition.  Either way you have to adjust your game plan accordingly. 

Matter of perspective, doing the most small things right is just another way of saying 'who doesn't fuck up worse' which is what my basic implication was. Massively dominant hands aside, I doubt anyone here is playing the Drain mirror perfectly. So in a game of inches, messing up a little thing can also count as a major mistake.

[forests failed you]

Excuse me for not realizing that what you said which was: "the first person who makes a major mistake loses" actually meant what I said which was: "The player who makes all of the smart, little-but important plays wins."  If you meant to say that subtle mistakes such as Brainstorming too soon, or Fetching to thin are 'major mistakes' you should have said so explicitly so that we know what you are talking about.  We can't read your mind Vegta 2711!


Secondly, I don't believe that the Mana Drain mirror stands to be lost as much as it stand to be won.  One of the most important skills is knowing when you can go for it and win, and when it just isn't time yet.  Many players will not take the initiave when they have the tools they need to go off because they are afraid that their opponent might have something.  And as a result of this they give an opponent who doesn't have a way to defend themselves time to catch up and out draw them.  I see it all the time when I am watching my friends playtest.  I will be sitting behind somebody watching over their shoulder and they will pass, and I'll ask them to back up and 'just win the game" and almost every time they can and do.  In fact I haven't been wrong about it yet.  That is the kind of stuff that wins the Drain mirror; understanding how it works, how to make the right plays, and when it is time to move in and attack.  The last part is the hardest one to actually achieve because it isn't a perfect science; there is no way aside from Duress to know what an opponent is holding, and as a result it requires you to actually take into consideration what they may have as opposed to what you are already holding. 

[WildWillieWonderboy]

So what is the actual means of winning? Does winning card advantage come from winning mana or vice versa? What is the hierarchy? Is there one?

Mana seems to be the initial calling station in that you need to make your first 3 land drops, but after turn two you need to either be sitting on a hand that is better than your opponents hand (Drain, FoW, Bomb, Blue cards, Land) or well on your way there. Similarly, as Bob and others have noted, Drains are a huge part of mana superiority, and card advantage is how you resolve Drain in the first place. The later it gets in the game, the harder it is to turn mana into card advantage and board position, while the opposite becomes much easier. Therefore, there's an overarching tempo aspect to this question. In other words, the level to which the game has progressed determines which factor leads to victory.

However, card advantage is the one aspect can win the game for you if you have enough. In other words, there's a number of cards you can draw at any point that will win the game for you. There's an amount of EARLY mana superiority that ought to win the game for you. Having 10 lands to your opponents five isn't so relevant when you're both in topdeck mode.

[forests failed you]

Usually, control match ups play out in either one of these two ways.

Somebody gets out tempoed and dies to a game ending Will or Tinker that they can't counter.

Or, the game is fairly closely constested and somebody runs out of things to do.

I'm not counting somebody makes a mistake, that'll do it to.

Very rarely does it play out where I make more two for ones on the board and win.  Card advantage is found via resolving blue cards.  So most likely, the person who resolves the most blue cards the fastest will usually get to resolve the one black card first.

[Dozer]

So what is the actual means of winning? Does winning card advantage come from winning mana or vice versa? What is the hierarchy? Is there one?

The actual means of winning is what forcefieldyou already mentioned: Making the tightest plays possible, and using all your mana. Every turn in which your mana sits unused is a wasted turn. Of course, the player who stumbles in the early mana development is at a serious disadvantage. However, if he can make ever single mana count, he is likely to win the game against an opponent who has "no gas". We are using this term ("no gas") pretty widely; what it means is that a player has nothing to do with his mana.

That's one of the reasons why players Brainstorm so often on their own first turn. Not only does it give you more options and optimizes your next draws, it also makes use of a mana you'd otherwise not have used in that turn. If you have Drain mana open and you don't have to use it, then you have denied your opponent (who held back a spell) the proper use of his mana. Your mana has been virtually used.

Of course, in the control matchup, you want spells on your curve that give you more to do with your mana, commonly known as card drawers. Most of these are Instants, as control players still don't like to tap themselves out on their turn, and in most cases rightly so. But as ffy observed, sometimes you just have to go for it because if you don't, you are not making the optimal use of your mana. Doing something is almost always the better option than doing nothing.

Incidentally, that is one of the reasons why Merchant Scroll is so good. It gives you an excellent "two-drop" that can fuel the next step. With the many accelerators in Vintage, a three-cost card may function as a two-drop (Thirst for Knowledge) but makes your deck less stable as you have to fear Shamans and their ilk. If a control player has this sequence (in the control matchup):
1st turn Brainstorm
2nd turn Merchant Scroll
3rd turn Brainstorm with Drain protection
4th turn either Merchant Scroll w/ Drain back-up or Fact or Fiction/ Gifts/ Welder + TfK

...is he likely to lose the game? Originally, I thought about making the third-turn Brainstorm an Ancestral that you'd get with Scroll, but that isn't even necessary. Of course, in the aggro matchup he has to have found a solution to the opponent's offense by this time. But as long as you can always maximize your mana, you will eventually reach the spell that either makes your opponent concede or reduces him to 0 life.

I've left out the more complex interactions when both players are maximizing their drops; as the others have already said, one of the players is bound to either fail to capitalize on an opponents' lapse or one player will fall behind eventually. This has as much to do with playskill as with luck. Sometimes you cannot make that topdeck happen or have that spell in your Brainstorm just because your deck didn't yield it.

An afterthought goes to cards on the board that give you uses for spare mana. These are always risky because they are prime targets, but thinking back to the days of Weissman, Disrupting Scepter and Jayemdae Tome took the place of todays more effective spells. They performed essentially the same function, though: Using all of your available mana for something useful, every turn.

Dozer

[Smmenen]

I have a completely different view of the contorl mirrors than most of you I think.

I think the holding Brainstorm play that Biller and Shay are famous for is ludicrous in decks that aren't full of junk (aka non Slaver drain decks) (because slaver plays lots of crappy artifacts that it needs to weld in and Probasco/Kowals deck is also full of Junk to support Thirst). 

I think that if someone resolves Ancestarl on turn one and then aggressively follows up in the cojntrol mirror on a bee line to resolve Will, they will def. win.

But its a temporal issue.  There is a correllation between the number of turns between major plays and the ability to win games. 

[Grand Inquisitor]

I think that if someone resolves Ancestarl on turn one and then aggressively follows up in the cojntrol mirror on a bee line to resolve Will, they will def. win.

Wait!  So all I need to do is cast Ancestral turn 1, and then look for the most powerful mid/late game card in the game?

Man, I've been lost for so long...

[Smmenen]

Glad to put you on track.  Sarcasm aside (and the utter triviality of your post aside), pure objective power is not what I'm talking about.  i'm thinking more tempo.

[MaxxMatt]

@Smemmen

In every games you can follow up with resolved bombs after a quick Ancestral Recall, you are on the way to win.

Your way of reasoning follow the sure path of being able to do what you are going to do, regardless the opponent's interactions.

Since the first turns of plays, I think that in every balanced situation, you should pose so much attentions, tricks and bluffs towards opponent's plays, that undeweighting his possible come back or his possible defences, trying to play aggressively your own game, can bring you to beatiful losses.

Second or third turn Y. Will would be really temptating, but it cannot be cosnidered simply an indicator of being able to win a match, but it is the evidence of your win.


How can you play aggressively if your hand isn't setup to do it?
Would you lose that game because you are going to win only the control mirrors with borken hands?
The goal is to be able to feel the victory when it isn't shining up on your side.




@All.
There are little and minor steps that are far more important that the playstyle that you underlined on your previous posts.

A couple of users touched really well the points that I would have liked to describe here.

1) The right mix of quick & playable spells with a good amount of mana
2) Not to be mana screwed
3) Not to be color screwed, especially post side.
4) Play a first or second turn Time Walk

1) It is difficult to judge the first point. You can have broken but hypercosted and uncastable spells in your initial hand that would have brought you to win the game, but that clunked your entire game. You opponent instead, is going to win through a good climax of Brainstorm/Drain/TFKs/Intuition/Gifts/FoF/gg.
The right cc for the right hand, is far more important than the right spells configuration but with a worst mana setup.

2) I'm always going to lose those games. Being able to do nothing is far more nastier than having little to nothing to do.  Not missing at least "a single mana font" during each turn is crucial to setup the win. Optimizing a Brainstorm and rising up to 3 or 4 mana during turn 2 is more appealing than anything else.

3) After sideboarding for the control mirror, you can be afflicted by this plague, especially in the control mirror, where you need both FAST red, FAST black and of course solid and FAST blue. I have lost some games with ReBs or Duresses in hand because of unlucky lands stacks, not enhanced by a single fetchland. Avoid it. Side properly!

4) I always have an hard on, when I see the face of my opponent when I'm going to declare that spell in the first steps of the game. It can be tricky, letting you to chain a couple of bombs in two different but susequent turns or it can be just solid, letting you to sit on double/triple protections faster than you opponent. In the control mirror and if the opponent is smart enough, that card usually get manadrained.
If the opponent is going to blindly play a Time Walk, punish him Draining two mana and pushing a good bomb right in his possibly virgin ass
If the opponent is going to blindly let you resolve a Time Walk, punish him forcing a good sequence of bombs and counters into his face.

In the first phases of the long control mirror match, Time Walk has the perfect qualitative effect that you would always optimize, far more that Brainstorm or Ancestral or anything else.

MaxxMatt

[forests failed you]

Resolving Yawgmoth's Will IS winning the match.  I probably win 99 percent of the games where I resolve a Yawgmoth's Will.  Even if it is an Emergency will to catch me up when I have fallen behind, usually it can swing you back into a position where you are able to win.

Really the only time you should ever lose after resolving Will is as follows.  You are behind in Mana, cards and tempo and force through a Yawgmoth's will in order to draw a few cards and make a mana drop.  You are unable to find time walk, and have to pass tapped out and your opponent plays a better will and wins.  That is really the only excuse.  But if you look at it that way;  you were already beaten because of aforementioned circumstances... the other player had better mana, card selection and tempo.  Casting an emergency will is the way tha t you attempt to recoup your bad start and get back into the game.  However if they have the win, they have it.  Its just something one has to accept.