[Premium Article] SMIP: Magic2010 Vintage Set Review

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/17709_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Magic_2010_A_Vintage_Set_Review.html

Editor's Blurb:

Monday, July 6th - With the Magic 2010 prerelease only days away, Stephen Menendian brings us his anticipated M10 Vintage Set Review. He examines a selection of cards, and highlights those he believes can make a splash in Magic’s most powerful format. Do you agree with his assessments?

[Explosion]

Pithing Needle: This is one of the most proxied cards in Vintage tournaments on account of that fact that many Vintage players do not own it because of its price.

This stood out to me. Is this really true? The card costs $10, maybe $15 at most, and has been in print for 4 years, and was reprinted in 10th. $10 seems like nothing compared to a playset of FoWs, Underground Seas, even fetch-lands. Sure, once you have them, you're all set, but isn't it the same with a card like Pithing Needle?

That, and if Vintage players didn't pick it up for the 2 years it was in 10th, why would they pick it up now in M10?

The past-set checklists are always a nice thing to see at the start of this sort of article. Overall, I liked the article, even if it's a bit self-explanatory, since none of the M10 cards are so weird that they'd require testing to figure out if they're good or not.

[Smmenen]

Yeah: I posted all of the Waterbury decklists and tallied up the number of proxies, average number, etc.   Pithing Needle was among the most proxied card at the Waterbury. 

[wiley]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

[Smmenen]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

[Troy_Costisick]

Pithing Needle: This is one of the most proxied cards in Vintage tournaments on account of that fact that many Vintage players do not own it because of its price.

This stood out to me. Is this really true? The card costs $10, maybe $15 at most, and has been in print for 4 years, and was reprinted in 10th. $10 seems like nothing compared to a playset of FoWs, Underground Seas, even fetch-lands. Sure, once you have them, you're all set, but isn't it the same with a card like Pithing Needle?

Yeah, I've seen lots of Needle and Goyf proxies in my local area.  Steadily, the number of proxies on these cards has dropped, but still, outside the Alpha cards and Mana Drain, I see these proxied the most.

Peace,

-Troy

[MirariKnight]

I agree with this, for some reason Needle is the one card that I never had the desire to acquire. I can't quite place why but I have played many times with Needles are my only proxies. Anyone know why? My only guess it that they are hard to find

[wiley]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

Also;

** Pithing Needle

Starting Price: $13.99
Future Price: $14.99
Thoughts: Pithing Needle does what Pithing Needle needs to do - and people will want to hunt it down for the new wording, which is kind-of cool.

You are right though, if it were a dollar then very few people would proxy it.  It is on the threshold of too much to buy compared to its ease of proxy.  I would make a gues that if it were $6 then the majority of people that proxy it would no longer.

[Troy_Costisick]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

Also;

[quote="Ben Bleiweiss]** Pithing Needle

Starting Price: $13.99
Future Price: $14.99
Thoughts: Pithing Needle does what Pithing Needle needs to do - and people will want to hunt it down for the new wording, which is kind-of cool.

You are right though, if it were a dollar then very few people would proxy it.  It is on the threshold of too much to buy compared to its ease of proxy.  I would make a gues that if it were $6 then the majority of people that proxy it would no longer.
[/quote]

Well, it was $25 on SCG when it first was reprinted in 10th.  So it has come down some since it was initially reprinted.  When M10 rotates out, I expect it to be $12 or less.  We'll see if my prediction comes true

Peace,

-Troy

[Mr. Type 4]

My theory is that Pithing Needle is so commonly proxied because its a higher-end sideboard card.  This makes it more proxied for two reasons:

1. People spend lots of time and money pimping out their main deck and dont see sideboards cards as being as important an investment since you dont use them in every match. 
2. Sideboard cards are often proxied at the last minute because people wait until they get to the tournament to finish their sideboard based on early scouting (or just genenral laziness.  I'll stick with scouting since we're all professonal here).  While many sideboard cards are commons that can be quickly bought or borrowed on location, Pithing Needle is more of an investment.  Sometimes people proxying pithing needle actually own it but didnt bring it. 

My prediction - As long as it is still played, Pithing Needle will continue to be one of the most proxied cards. 

[mr.grim]

Needle is a staple in most sb these days and I agree with Mr.t4 it will be a sharpied land for a while yet. Tho is the art going to be new? I think with the new wording and if the art is new it might gain value over the normal one.

[Smmenen]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

I don't think that's true. 

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/7E/Birds_of_Paradise.html
http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/8E/Birds_of_Paradise.html

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/4E/Hypnotic_Specter.html

Price is the interaction of supply and demand.    The increase in supply will create downward pressure on price.  Whether that results in a lower price or not is not given -- that will depend on the degree of demand at each price point. 

[Yare]

I proxied Needle this weekend for the exact reasons explained in this thread, in spite of having the full package of Moxen and Ancestral in my collection.

[voltron00x]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

I don't think that's true. 

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/7E/Birds_of_Paradise.html
http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/8E/Birds_of_Paradise.html

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/4E/Hypnotic_Specter.html

Price is the interaction of supply and demand.    The increase in supply will create downward pressure on price.  Whether that results in a lower price or not is not given -- that will depend on the degree of demand at each price point. 

Pithing Needle's price will be far more impacted by M10 than it was by 10th Edition.  It's a significantly smaller set, and is printed at regular "rare" rarity in a set with Mythic rares.  WotC also seems far more interested in pushing M10 than a normal base set, obvious by the inclusion of new cards and its use at limited GPs such as Boston.  It is likely that there will be far more copies floating around for trade / purchase as people will be more inclined to crack packs of this set compared to a normal core set, and there is more incentive for "pros" to practice with these cards for the GP season.  I suspect that it'll be closer to $10 than $15 over time, however that also depends on how much play it sees in standard.  With the man-lands rotating out, it seems less useful in standard now than it was before.  In the past it had a tendency to spike during Extended season if there were particularly applicable targets, so you need to factor that in when looking at historical pricing.

In any event, as I've stated previously, Needle seems like a card that will continue to increase in Vintage playability.  As it becomes a staple in SBs, I suspect over time we'll see less proxies.  Being able to hit significant cards in all of the major decks (Tezzeret / Vault / Key; Bazaar; Strip Mine / Wasteland / Welder), I can't see how it doesn't become a staple of the format until something changes.

[Smmenen]

That's what I said about Needle in the article. 

[wiley]

A comparison of the 8e, rav and 10e printing of birds.  This serves to illustrate that for magic cards the demand is far and away more important than supply.  Spikes in price are only due to increased viability in tournament play (or some strange spike in casual play that translates to increased sales).  Pithing needle is already near the top of its overall tournament viability.  The slight increase in its vintage viability will not be enough to drive the price up and the increase in printings will not be enough to drive the price down to any appreciable extent  (meaning more than 2-3 dollars either way).  For that reason it will stay as a heavily proxied card for the foreseeable future, as it will not be any more monetarily accessible than it is right now.

[LordHomerCat]

I own Needles from drafting and stuff, but like I don't have a set of Goyfs (a similar card with similar function to me, sideboard).  And, I probably won't have a set anytime soon, because they cost a fortune.  Forces and Dual lands are never going to go down.  They won't rotate out or stop being played or anything like that.  Needle will rotate eventually.  So will thoughtseize and Tarmogoyf and any other Vintage card which happens to be a Type 2 staple, and when they do those cards will lose a ton of value.  Basically, why would I spend a million dollars on a set of stupid tarmogoyfs now when I don't need them for Vintage and can just wait until they rotate out of most formats and get cheap?  I would expect many people feel the same about Needle and similar cards.

[tomjoad]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

I don't think that's true. 

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/7E/Birds_of_Paradise.html
http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/8E/Birds_of_Paradise.html

http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/4E/Hypnotic_Specter.html

Price is the interaction of supply and demand.    The increase in supply will create downward pressure on price.  Whether that results in a lower price or not is not given -- that will depend on the degree of demand at each price point. 

It should be obvious, but the dip on price of 7th and 8th Edition Birds of Paradise coincide very closely to the printing of Ravnica. I doubt very much that this dip was due to the fact that more Birds were available, but the fact that more black bordered Birds were available, thereby making the white bordered ones less desirable.

Also, the spike in Hypnotic Spector is at the same time as an increase in the supply of Hyppies. That jump is likely due to the fact that the card was being made STandard legal for the first time since 4th Edition. People were excited...for 6 months. The price has been going down since then, I assume, because people have been finding that it's not a very good card.

[Troy_Costisick]

A comparison of the 8e, rav and 10e printing of birds.  This serves to illustrate that for magic cards the demand is far and away more important than supply.  Spikes in price are only due to increased viability in tournament play (or some strange spike in casual play that translates to increased sales).  Pithing needle is already near the top of its overall tournament viability.  The slight increase in its vintage viability will not be enough to drive the price up and the increase in printings will not be enough to drive the price down to any appreciable extent  (meaning more than 2-3 dollars either way).  For that reason it will stay as a heavily proxied card for the foreseeable future, as it will not be any more monetarily accessible than it is right now.

You make a good point about BoP, and I do agree with you that it will be proxied for a long time.  But let's compare apples to apples.  Check out Pithing Needle's Price since it was introduced and reprinted in 10th:



After it peaks, there is a steady trend down.  If demand were more important than supply, the small spke in the summer of 2008 would have been much larger and the downward preasure on the card would have stopped.  Instead, it has continued to decrease in value.  I believe it will continue to do so barring some deck that performs well in Standard but is easily hosed by Needle.  Demand and Supply are both important.  Increasing one without increasing the other will affect the price.  Another year of printing will put a lot more Needles on the market.  That means, more than likely, the price will come down.  It will probably settle around 10-11 bucks IMO.

Peace,

-Troy

[wiley]

Alright, apples to apples then (though bop is a much more potent example as it has had a much larger overall print run and has seen multiple rises and dips in popularity throughout the formats).



Note that both versions follow an almost identical price pattern (with variation most likely due to stores that run out of stock of one version or the other).  The continued lowering of price has been due to the fact that it is far less useful than previously in the largest format.  For any card that has been printed in the last 8-9 years, the print run has been so large as to make reprints of a card mostly irrelevant in terms of affecting price.  The only reason a reprint changes price is that it now has the potential to be useful in the largest, most popular format again.

Its popularity isn't likely to increase unless it becomes extremely relevant in fighting a new zendikar fueled deck in standard and its relevance in extended, legacy and vintage will not decrease.  As I said, the price probably won't change more than 2-3 dollars either way, and definitely not more than that in the downward spectrum.  It will remain an overly expensive sideboard card to most people and remain heavily proxied in vintage.

Also, if you search around you can already find them for $10 ea.  I found mine for $8 ea back when they were running for $17 on most sites.

[voltron00x]

That's what I said about Needle in the article. 

I know.  We both stated this in previous forum conversations as well. 

I'm agreeing with you.  Don't worry, it feels weird for me too 

[Explosion]

I own Needles from drafting and stuff, but like I don't have a set of Goyfs (a similar card with similar function to me, sideboard).  And, I probably won't have a set anytime soon, because they cost a fortune.  Forces and Dual lands are never going to go down.  They won't rotate out or stop being played or anything like that.  Needle will rotate eventually.  So will thoughtseize and Tarmogoyf and any other Vintage card which happens to be a Type 2 staple, and when they do those cards will lose a ton of value.  Basically, why would I spend a million dollars on a set of stupid tarmogoyfs now when I don't need them for Vintage and can just wait until they rotate out of most formats and get cheap?  I would expect many people feel the same about Needle and similar cards.

Goyf is going to be Extended-legal for another 4 years and 3 months, and is a main-deck card for green-based fish, as well as being huge in Legacy. It's just going to keep going up, and will hiccup a bit when it finally rotates out, but assuming Magic is still going strong, will be more than it is now.

I've generally got the feeling that aside from occasionally shutting down Planeswalkers, Needle was used mostly in Extended and eternal formats, so its price is again tied to the Extended rotation. M10 rotates with the Shards of Alara block, so we're guaranteed to see Pithing Needle in Extended for the next 6 years.

Waiting on cards that are Type 2-legal I kind of understand, Tezzeret's been sinking pretty fast, but Thoughtseize is a huge card in all formats, and it's just not going to drop that much in October, since Extended season demand will eat up all of the excess supply from the Standard players selling off.

[Smmenen]

That's what I said about Needle in the article. 

I know.  We both stated this in previous forum conversations as well. 

I'm agreeing with you.  Don't worry, it feels weird for me too 

I think we mostly agree on things. 

A comparison of the 8e, rav and 10e printing of birds.  This serves to illustrate that for magic cards the demand is far and away more important than supply.  Spikes in price are only due to increased viability in tournament play (or some strange spike in casual play that translates to increased sales).  Pithing needle is already near the top of its overall tournament viability.  The slight increase in its vintage viability will not be enough to drive the price up and the increase in printings will not be enough to drive the price down to any appreciable extent  (meaning more than 2-3 dollars either way).  For that reason it will stay as a heavily proxied card for the foreseeable future, as it will not be any more monetarily accessible than it is right now.

You make a good point about BoP, and I do agree with you that it will be proxied for a long time. 

Look at the time scale of the graphs.   The first graph shows five years.   The third shows only 2 years.   Pretty big difference.  Apples and Oranges.

But let's compare apples to apples.  Check out Pithing Needle's Price since it was introduced and reprinted in 10th:



After it peaks, there is a steady trend down.  If demand were more important than supply, the small spke in the summer of 2008 would have been much larger and the downward preasure on the card would have stopped.  Instead, it has continued to decrease in value.  I believe it will continue to do so barring some deck that performs well in Standard but is easily hosed by Needle.  Demand and Supply are both important.  Increasing one without increasing the other will affect the price.  Another year of printing will put a lot more Needles on the market.  That means, more than likely, the price will come down.  It will probably settle around 10-11 bucks IMO.

Peace,

-Troy

Some cards have flatter demand curves, and I suspect that's the case with Birds.   As always, demand is critical, but so is supply. 

I don't have a quarrel with much of what Wiley's saying, except that I took issue with his original post.   I said that an increase in supply results in lower prices, everything else equal.   I haven't seen any evidence to suggest otherwise.   

[Beralt]

Needle is currently used in standard to shut off Seismic Assault (for the Swans decks), Planeswallkers and turn off man-lands such as Treetop Village. I don't think I am missing any primary uses as there are not a ton of activatable abilities. It has other uses against oddball stuff like Master Transmuter but it is mostly a sideboard card.

[voltron00x]

Unfortunately the fact that it is seeing a new printing does not mean it will go down in price.  Most likely it will stay in the $10-15 range which means that anyone who doesn't have one due to cost is still not going to buy them.  Most likely though, the fact that it is proxied heavily is due to convenience more than price.

   An increase in supply usually results in a decrease in price, everything else equal.  

Also, if it were $1, I think that it would not be that heavily proxied.  

History has shown this to not be true when it comes of magics good cards such as wrath of god, birds of paradise, platinum angel, pithing needle, siege-gang commander, howling mine, hypnotic specter, royal assassin etc.etc.

Also;

** Pithing Needle

Starting Price: $13.99
Future Price: $14.99
Thoughts: Pithing Needle does what Pithing Needle needs to do - and people will want to hunt it down for the new wording, which is kind-of cool.

You are right though, if it were a dollar then very few people would proxy it.  It is on the threshold of too much to buy compared to its ease of proxy.  I would make a gues that if it were $6 then the majority of people that proxy it would no longer.

Sorry to necro this thread, but its for a purpose.

A while back, we were discussing the impact of M10 on pricing of specific cards, notably Pithing Needle, which Smmenen has cited as the most-proxied card in Vintage in certain events. 

M10 has had an interesting effect on the singles market.  As I suggested, the slight adjustment in what it means to be "rare" in the new set structure combined with the small set size has had a ripple effect on the value of Pithing Needle, and interestingly, multiple "staple" cards mentioned, above.  Birds of Paradise are now available on Ebay for around $20 for a playset and I NEVER recall that being true in the past.  Pithing Needle, which Ben Bleiweiss estimated would be $15 in the future (as seen above) is now selling on SCG for $7.99 for the M10 edition:

Pithing Needle Magic 2010 (M10) Singles 1 Artifact  R NM/M 147 7.99   
http://sales.starcitygames.com/search.php?substring=pithing+needle&Go.x=17&Go.y=13

They are available on Ebay for substantially less, as are foils, which I am acquiring for around $10 - an unthinkable number only a few months ago.

Without question, the huge initial sales on M10, as well as the hive-mind belief that this was a set that you could profit on by cracking packs and reselling (true for a brief period of maybe 1-2 weeks and now patently false - the packs are selling at or above MSRP due to scarcity while the market is flooded with singles) has flooded the market with cards, and those not seeing play in Standard are not holding value.  This includes Pithing Needle - but note that some of the Mythics which see no play in Standard, like Darksteel Colossus and Platinum Angel, but see play in Vintage - are also selling for $5, which is also unheard of.

Just food for thought... I would chalk this up to the triumph of supply/demand over historical data as cited during this discussion, which is exactly what some of us predicted.

Note that M10 product looks like it is going to be scarce for a while, and it is quite possible that this is a temporary "crash" that will balance out as dealers move stock, ebay auctions dry up, cards see more play (in Standard or due to Extended season), and so on.  Regardless, there's very little reason to proxy a Pithing Needle right now.