Banned and Restricted List Announcement Awareness/Countdown

[Smmenen]

Monday is the announcement for the Banned and Restricted list.  Speculation and gossip may take place here as we count down the annoucement.  We might also wake up Monday morning to find out that Portal is entering Type One.

What changes do you think will be made to the B&R list, in actual reality - not what you think shoud hapepn, if anything?

EDIT:  Seeing as you people are all Bayesians.  I'll make some predictions.

I think the probability of a change in the restricted list other than as it would apply to Portal is less than 50%.  Wizards has not paid attention to anything that we have said here about the B&R list, and Dr. Sylvan's article was more stimulative than purely analytical in terms of motivating policy change.  

On the other hand, I think there is a much greater than 50% chance that Portal will become legal for April 1st.  All signs point to yes.  

Stephen Menendian

[Dr. Sylvan]

Unrestriction of a combination of the following:

(a) Fork
(b) Braingeyser / Stroke of Genius
(c) Regrowth
(d) Voltaic Key

Of the possibilities, I think that the probability goes kinda like this:

50% nothing unrestricted
25% one element of {a,b,c,d} unrestricted
15% two elements of {a,b,c,d} unrestricted
5% three elements of {a,b,c,d} unrestricted
5% four elements of {a,b,c,d} unrestricted

I would be very surprised if anything is added to the list, and I give Portal 60/40 odds against being incorporated (if Portal comes in, Imperial Seal will be restricted with 75% certainty).

[Cuandoman]

Nothing is going to happen. The meta is pretty balanced.

[Matt]

Yeah, nothing's happening with the B/R lists (unless they restrict Imperial Seal). I give Portal a 20-25% chance of being legal. Stroke and Geyser are totally safe, but basically, no one cares enough to demand their unrestriction.

[Hyperion]

Restrict: Nothing

There might be some cards added to an informal "watch list" - by that, I mean that last time they said they'd be keeping an eye on Workshop and Bazaar. But I don't think any restrictions will need to be made.

Unrestrict: Fork

Fork is obsolete and should be removed, but it won't really make any difference because it isn't played as a singleton and doesn't get better in multiples. I think Wizards will steer clear of unrestricting draw-X spells even if they aren't played anymore and hopefully keep Regrowth restricted.

[MuzzonoAmi]

In reality, I can see Fork and Voltaic Key being unrestricted without incident. I'll take good odds on Portal too, though I don't that Imperial Seal needs restricted. There's a slight possibility that Entomb or Earthcraft will be unrestricted, since those decks are both obsolete now.

[Azhrei]

So when does Dark Ritual get restricted?  :shock:

[rvs]

I'd say they won't change anything, at best the unrestrictions of voltaic key.

[Magi]

So when does Dark Ritual get restricted?  :shock:

should that happen

heads will roll

[jpmeyer]

Someday, yes someday...

[Dr. Sylvan]

So when does Dark Ritual get restricted?  :shock:

When Smmenen says it should be, obv.

[Magi]

As long as Workshop is restricted first.

[rvs]

As long as Workshop is restricted first.

At say at the same time makes sense

Dark Ritual > Workshop.

[CF]

Dark Ritual > Workshop

Funny how the number of deck types sporting these indicate otherwise.

I have believed Workshop's incredible mana boost warrants restriction for a long time, and I still stand by it. Wizards' argument for not restricting it earlier was that "if aggro in t1 needs a turn 1 Juggernaut to be viable, so be it" but these days control/combo/lock have embraced Workshop even tighter. Thus, their argument no longer holds up. I doubt they'll notice this though ;o)

--
Chris

[Dr. Sylvan]

I thought we'd all had this argument before? Suffice it to say I spent a lot of the weekend on the February data, and there's still no crazy dangerous combo or crazy metagame-repressing Prison decks running around. Nobody's broken them yet, so this is all really academic. If anything, the metagame is actually more balanced than before among numerous archetypes.

Sneak Preview:

10 control (5 Hulk Smash, 2 Keeper, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UR Landstill)
9 combo (5 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Dragon)
8 aggro (3 Madness, 2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 1 Goblin Sligh)
6 prison (3 Stax, 2 Slavery, 1 MUD)
4 aggro-combo (2 Gobvantage, 1 MadDragon, 1 Vengeur Masque)
3 aggro-control (2 Iso-GAT, 1 SuperGro)

[Raph Caron]

Same old things :

1) Dark Ritual
2) Mana Drain
3) Mishra's Workshop
4) Worldgorger Dragon

[Magi]

Dark Ritual > Workshop

Funny how the number of deck types sporting these indicate otherwise.

I have believed Workshop's incredible mana boost warrants restriction for a long time, and I still stand by it. Wizards' argument for not restricting it earlier was that "if aggro in t1 needs a turn 1 Juggernaut to be viable, so be it" but these days control/combo/lock have embraced Workshop even tighter. Thus, their argument no longer holds up. I doubt they'll notice this though ;o)

--
Chris

CF hit the money

Workshop is ten times more broken that Ritual. If Ritual were to be restricted before Workshop...heads will roll.

Workshop getting restricted won't bother me, but I doubt it'll happen...yet.

[Toad]

Sneak Preview:

10 control (5 Hulk Smash, 2 Keeper, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UR Landstill)
9 combo (5 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Dragon)
8 aggro (3 Madness, 2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 1 Goblin Sligh)
6 prison (3 Stax, 2 Slavery, 1 MUD)
4 aggro-combo (2 Gobvantage, 1 MadDragon, 1 Vengeur Masque)
3 aggro-control (2 Iso-GAT, 1 SuperGro)

10 control decks packing Mana Drain
7 combo decks packing Dark Ritual
6 prison decks packing Mishra's Workshop

If you only consider this short breakdown:
Mana Drain > Mishra's Workshop
Dark Ritual > Mishra's Workshop

I understand the players who ask for Mishra's Workshop restriction. Being locked down sucks. But "being locked down" sucks is not an argument. There is currently no broken deck in Type One. No archetype is dominant. Restricting Mishra's Workshop would kill 5 archetypes (TNT, Slavery, $T4KS, MUD, Welder MUD) and make Tog even stronger. This would probably lead to a Mana Drain restriction. Which would make combo broken, and lead to a restriction of Bazaar and Dark Ritual.

And then Sligh and White Weenie will rule supreme. What a great metagame that would be!

Type One is fine. Restrict nothing. And unestrict the obvious stuff like Stroke, Geyser, Key, etc ...

[CF]

10 control (5 Hulk Smash, 2 Keeper, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UR Landstill)
9 combo (5 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Dragon)
8 aggro (3 Madness, 2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 1 Goblin Sligh)
6 prison (3 Stax, 2 Slavery, 1 MUD)
4 aggro-combo (2 Gobvantage, 1 MadDragon, 1 Vengeur Masque)
3 aggro-control (2 Iso-GAT, 1 SuperGro)

@Toad: I said "number of deck _types_", not number of decks. 5 deck types sporting Workshop here, fewer sporting Ritual.

The fact that a Dark Ritual is -a little- easier to get hold of than a Workshop could also be contributing to the above numbers. If Workshop was a 4th ed common I bet we'd see even more of them in top8s.

--
Chris

[MuzzonoAmi]

10 control (5 Hulk Smash, 2 Keeper, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UR Landstill)
9 combo (5 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Dragon)
8 aggro (3 Madness, 2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 1 Goblin Sligh)
6 prison (3 Stax, 2 Slavery, 1 MUD)
4 aggro-combo (2 Gobvantage, 1 MadDragon, 1 Vengeur Masque)
3 aggro-control (2 Iso-GAT, 1 SuperGro)

@Toad: I said "number of deck _types_", not number of decks. 5 deck types sporting Workshop here, fewer sporting Ritual.

The fact that a Dark Ritual is -a little- easier to get hold of than a Workshop could also be contributing to the above numbers. If Workshop was a 4th ed common I bet we'd see even more of them in top8s.

--
Chris

And a 5th ed, Mirage, Tempest, Saga, and Masques common.

Regardless, if you restrict Ritual or Workshop, combo is going to get alot stronger, sice prison will be forced to resort to City of Traitors and Ancient Tomb - making combo way too strong to be healthy, save Tog and/or Keeper going up to 9 counters or 8 counters + 2-3 Duress.

[Dr. Sylvan]

Regardless, if you restrict Ritual or Workshop, combo is going to get alot stronger...

Did you mean to include Ritual in that statement? Because historically, restricting fast mana has been a good way to inhibit combo.

[Matt]

Ritual-Duress-Hymn has also been a good way to inhibit combo, if that's what he meant.

[Jebus]

I'm fairly certain there will be no changes.  At least, that's what I'd think as of right now.

[dicemanx]

No changes indeed.

http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dci/announce/dci20040301a

[Dr. Sylvan]

December was soooo much more exciting than this tame "well what about Ritual?" stuff. Ah, the good ole' days. :-P

No Portal either, though. Phil's probabilistic prediction portending Portal's preclusion prevails!

[jpmeyer]

That just makes the anticipation of the time when Dark Ritual and Mana Drain get restricted all the more sweeter

[Bram]

Phil's probabilistic prediction portending Portal's preclusion prevails!

I just felt the need to share my deep admiration of this amazing allitteration with you guys.

Also, wtf?? Did I refresh www.thedci.com every 5 minutes for the past 14 hours for this? I wanted at least ESG to get restricted

[Matt]

Tinder Wall should be restricted.

[jpmeyer]

I can see it happening!

[Dr. Sylvan]

Phil's probabilistic prediction portending Portal's preclusion prevails!

I just felt the need to share my deep admiration of this amazing allitteration with you guys.

It would've been better if my name was Pete. :)

Also, wtf?? Did I refresh www.thedci.com every 5 minutes for the past 14 hours for this? I wanted at least ESG to get restricted :-P

Tinder Wall is so much more b0rk3n!!!1! It getz RED manaz, & n-e-1 noze red >>>>>> green!