[Discussion] When is the price of a mox out of hand?

[Meddling Mike]

With the sharp increase in the price of power over the last few months, many people are constantly astonished by the prices of power cards. Every once in a while somebody will post a link to some card on ebay that has been sold at some, previously unfathomable, price.

This has drawn different reactions from different people. Some have frantically bought power hoping to invest before the prices climb even further hoping to either cash in or save themselves expense at some later date. Others have made prophecies about the 350 dollar UL ancestral recall heralding the end of vintage magic. Others attempt to force the system to change to accomodate the price increase and make the format more readily playable to new players (I count myself in the latter personally).

With the prices on moxes skyrocketing, will there ever be a point where it will simply cost too much and people will no longer be able to shell out the necessary money for cards and the sales of power will come to a screeching halt until the prices drop down into a more reasonable price? And if so, where will the price of power top off?

[Meddling Mike]

@Phele, please read the WHOLE title to the poll before posting that I've done it wrong.

[Katzby]

With the prices on moxes skyrocketing, will there ever be a point where it will simply cost too much and people will no longer be able to shell out the necessary money for cards and the influx of new players into t1 will come to a screeching halt until the prices drop down into a more reasonable price? And if so, where is that price?

No, of course not.  If anything, the significance of the power cards reaching high pricetags has had less impact on type 1 in the last year than in those recent.  And this is because proxy tournaments have taken over type 1 as the unofficial standard.

Most of the good decks in type 1 may be built, with 5 proxies, for under a couple hundred dollars.   And if the current revolution to increase the typical number of allowed proxies to 10 or more gets going, this won't even be an issue anymore.

The old comparison of type 1 v. type 2 in the way of high initial cost v. continuing investment is completely obsolete.  It's now a matter of the cost of a deck in type 1 v. that in type 2.  With 10 proxies or so allowed for the type 1 deck, the figures are very comparable.


Katzby

[Meddling Mike]

@Katzby
I've edited my initial post to more closely reflect the question I was asking. The question here really is will this ever increasing price of power going to come to a halt and where.

[Jacob Orlove]

Basic economics shows that as long as real demand continues to rise, so will prices.

Of course, if most of the demand is generated by speculation (which, imo, it is not), then we might see a bubble form and pop.

[rvs]

There's no limit. If someone is willing to cough something up, then it's worth it etc

[LordLamneth]

It doesn't seem to show any signs of stopping.

[brag]Which is fine by me. I paid $100 for my Mox Sapphire on eBay 4 years ago, and got my Pearl for $125 then too. Hell, a year ago I paid $165 for my Emerald, $175 for my Ruby, and $200 for my Jet. I was worried I overpaid, but I couldn't be more wrong. Go baby go!!!! [/brag]

It's not just Moxes- look at the Lotus, Bazaar, Workshop, and Illusionary Mask. All have shot up recently. Look's like the sky's the limit.

LordLamneth

[nataz]

@ Jacob O

Getting a little more technical though,
Price and demand are directly related to each other. Although it is true that greater demand = greater price, at some point in time price has a negative impact on demand. It’s a really basic graph that ends up looking like an "X". Although we might not have reached it yet, eventually price will end up pushing down demand with in a stable population.

the way to solve that is to provide growth, but if the price is too high, the growth is stifled.

not to be all doom-ish or anything, I really do think type one is way underdeveloped and isnt even close to that point yet.

[riggy]

That analysis doesn't sound right. There's an equilibrium price, for certain. So as the price rises (move up along the supply curve), demand decreases.

However, with the influx of type 1 players (negating your constant population argument), the entire demand curve will shift to the right, while the supply curve remains - for the most part - constant. That constitutes a rise in the equilibrium price, which I believe is what we're seeing right now. The demand curve is in the process of shifting.

I wanted to post about the dopeness factor of the next Waterbury but couldn't, so I've got to get my geekiness fix here, instead. =)

[jpmeyer]

What bothers me less than the actual prices is the rate that they're increasing, and the rate that this rate is increasing at.  I could understand prices doubling in a year, but the fact that the price of Moxes has gone up about $50 in a month bothers me much more since these aren't like Bazaars or Masks where suddenly an OOP found a spot in a powerful deck as a 4-of.

[nataz]

@ riggy
I agree, which is why I said type one is under developed; it hasn’t reached its max equilibrium point. However, it is heading in that direction at a seemingly fast rate (compared to price rise rates over the past 2 years).

Like Jp said, going up 20% in price in one month (assuming 250ish-300ish) is a huge rate increase. Eventually the price will increase to a point that will even more severely limit the new players coming into the game. Eventually a point will be reached on the far right of the curve where the price maxes out, then demand drops, and population becomes stagnant.

We are a growing population for now but there has to be a ceiling somewhere, and I believe that ceiling will be based on price/demand. Its easier to say "hey I like type one and I'll invest 3k in power to compete" now, then 2 or three years down the road when someone new has to invest 7k, 8k, or even more.  

the analysis would be different if you were looking at it from a collectors point of veiw, because collectors dont care if there are more collectors every year, therefore the price can simply rise. To keep the game going we need a steady growth (or at least turnover) in population, meaning we are focusing on population growth as a factor of price and demand.

[Meddling Mike]

Good to see some discussion on this thread, allright, here's some things that have crossed my mind recently, Where is the point at that everybody who doesn't already own a set of power looks at the investment that would need to be made to compete and gives up? And also, how would increasing the standard number of proxies in power tourneys affect this?

[nataz]

"Where is the point at that everybody who doesn't already own a set of power looks at the investment that would need to be made to compete and gives up"

Well, the stupid answer is that it’s the point on the curve where demand (and therefore population growth) reach zero. I think the more pertinent question is where does demand fall off at a fast enough rates that it negatively influences the number of people entering the game.

As of right now, type one is under developed, so many people haven’t even tried it compared to standard. Therefore we can afford to suck in all the standard and extended players for now (hence the jump in population).

I wonder how many people start their magic experience by playing type one, and how many people come to type one from other formats. I bet (but it would be hard to prove) that more people come to type one from other formats, then from outside of magic. I think the recent popularity and coverage in type one (read growth) comes from an increased influx of these previously playing magic people, and not from people who have simply never played before.

Therefore it would be interesting and informative to see the rate at which standard and extended grows, and compare that rate to the growth of type one.

If it were greater, then that would be good; cause then the other formats can continue to feed type one.

If it is lower, then there is a problem because then the bubble will burst that much sooner because eventually we will hit a point at which the overall growth to the format (x), can no longer equal the growth of type one (y), causing a rapid decrees in the rate of population growth, and price inflation.

Much of this is based on assumption though, e.g. like the assumed rate of growth overall to standard > rate of growth to type one, etc etc.

Hmmm, this makes me think of doing some serious statistical analysis, and brushing off my old economic books.

Fun fun.

ps.
This entire debate is pretty theoretical, so be nice when you flame.

pps.
a note to all the collectors out there (samite healer, i know you are out there somewhere ;-D) your collections values are based on the popularity of the game, because this is after all a game. The cards themselves are not "old", are not made of expensive material, and are simply reduced prints of original artwork (aka, not really original artwork). If the popularity of the game decreases, so will the value of your cards (e.g. pokimon cards), therefore it is in your best cash intrest to make sure the game stays healthy.

[Jacob Orlove]

Actually, many cards have their value determined entirely by collectors. Chaos Orb and Shichifukujin and Zodiac Dragons come to mind, as do PSA 9 Beta commons (over $50 for a llanowar elf?).

Anyway, the real pressure on price will be when people who currently own cards see the prices as high enough to justify selling them. Most players will probably hang on to their cards until they decide to actually quit the game, but when prices reach, say, $10,000 for a full set of power, some people will be tempted to sell at least some of their cards. When that happens, the breakneck price increases may slow down.

[Iconorast]

A friend of mine bought a full set and other cards for a grand.

It came with 4 Mana Drain, 2 Abyss, 3 Nether Void and various other vintage good rares. All near mint.

You should ask your friend to sell off some of his stuff and send you back to first grade for Christmas. -kl0wn

[nataz]

Correct me if I am wrong, but there is only one Shichifukujin dragon in existence, and I guess on that merit alone it can be considered more of a collectors item them most other "expensive" cards.

And as for PSA 9 graded commons, I wonder what a similarly graded healing salve or even fish oil is worth. I think part of the elf's value rests on its popularity and play value in the game.

The others you listed (z dragon and orb), well fine, be right, and prove my all-encompassing statements wrong... see if I care.

But I still contend that at least the power nine (example 1000+ for a beta black lotus PSA9) have much of their value rooted in playability.

my pps was really just directed to head off comments from collectors about how all of there cards will always be worth a lot even if the game
collapses because they are "rare".

[Matt]

Personally, I think the price on moxen has been unconscionable since 1998 or so.

[hispls]

I bought all my power a while ago moxes at like 60-80 and big blue under 100 and I picked up multiple lotus' for under 165 each (I thought that was high).  The fact is, just like a superman #1 comic will always go up in value so will a mox, at least as long as people play magic.  So whatever you pay for them now it's no big deal, because you can always sell out of your investment at a profit (the way my stuff went I beat the return of the stock market )  So some of it is speculation.  but it seems like pretty safe speculation, and as long as wizards sticks to the reserved list.  With that in mind, it's easier for people to justify paying "outrageous prices" for power.  Another thing that helps is the weak dollar.  Our current economic policy seems rather inflationary (probably to promote trade/growth worldwide) and I notice about half my type 1 stuff that I ebay is going to europe where they have a lot of buying power with the euro being so strong against the dollar.  I expect that for at least the next year or two the dollar will be devalued further on the world market.  This will also help keep those costs soaring (how about 20$ for a damn underground sea?).