[Article] Matchup Analysis: Psychatog v. Goblin Charbelcher

[Alfred]

I don't understand what the big deal about the apprentice shuffler is. If you are afraid that it isn't randomized, then why don't you just hold the shuffle button down for 10 seconds. Don't tell me that it won't be almost completely random. Whatever algorithm it uses for randomness will probably work pretty well if you do it 100 times.

[Kasuras]

However, the shuffler is not the only problem apprentice has.

First of all, it doesn't support wishes. Since you play hulk, and that deck runs wishes, you cannot cast wishes.

That's not the biggest problem, because if you're really testing: the opponent knows your sideboard so you can just say what to wish for.

But apprentice logs also give conversations. And to be honest, I don't want to know what Smmenen's day looked like. I'm only interested in his article. If I would like to chat with him, I'll do that where it's supposed to be. Yes, those apprentice logs can be changed, I know.

Third: article is already very long, apprentice logs will only make it unnessary longer.

And last: apprentice logs will make the article look very messy. People don't want to read endless logs to just know how the tog player beat op the belcher player, we want to know how to fix it and why it happened. Not at what time the psychatog was played or when the wheel of fortune was countered.

Conclusion: reports are way better than logs in most of the occasions, in this occasion it is. Defenitely.

[goober]

Smmenen can't become the Rasko of Tog, but more like the Zherbus of it.  Someone who is actually very good at the deck.

I would love to see another matchup of Belcher, just because it is so unknown.  When people make decks they talk about Tog,  Slaver, Germbus, etc, but not Charbelcher.  This article might get some people to play this underrepresented deck, which I feel is a strong tier 2, if not low tier1.  Just don't do Charblecher vs Stacks because that matchup makes me cry.  They always seem to draw turn 1 Workshop -> Trinisphere grrrrr.

I hate apprentance, Magic Workstation has a far better interface.  It is more buggy, but usually it only messes up when you try to start a new game, so you can just restart the game in 5 seconds, and not lose anything.

[Mathman07]

I think that a Slaver (either type) vs. Belcher would be good.  Or any matchup with Belcher really - long games make the article too long and you get long games with control on control.  Also, testing against Belcher is a benchmark of sorts because it requires the control player to:

1. Mulligan properly (FOW / fast wish)
2. Know which threats should be countered - many people just don't consider countering mana sources.
3. Make decisions well, especially with regards to tutors

Anyways, I really enjoyed the article.

[Ged]

Great article.
One more vote for Germbus/Hulk. Or (if you don't want to write about tog) Drain Slaver/Germbus.

[Jhaggs]

One suggestion re: the next matchup article: don't do Tog vs. X, simply because that would make the fourth matchup article featuring Tog, and I'd hate for you to become the Rakso of Psychatog.

I have to disagree with this statement for two reasons.  First, Hulk has been dominate for all of 04'.  It is still the premiere flagship deck of the format.  In my opinion, it is the deck in which all other top builds need to be measured against.  Hence, it is entirely appropriate to analyze Blecher and other newer builds against it.  Secondly, since GenCon is quickly approaching our doorstep, Hulk will undoubtedly be heavily played.  I think players need/want to hear more about it preforms against a myraid of builds.  Talking about the top deck now is relevant for arguably the year's biggest venue (no offense Ray).

However, I do understand the need for diversity.  Perhaps Steve could continue his Hulk breakdowns while adding other articles as well

[Saucemaster]

I have to disagree with this statement for two reasons.  First, Hulk has been dominate for all of 04'.  It is still the premiere flagship deck of the format.  In my opinion, it is the deck in which all other top builds need to be measured against.  Hence, it is entirely appropriate to analyze Blecher and other newer builds against it.  Secondly, since GenCon is quickly approaching our doorstep, Hulk will undoubtedly be heavily played.  I think players need/want to hear more about it preforms against a myraid of builds.  Talking about the top deck now is relevant for arguably the year's biggest venue (no offense Ray).

I think we probably have different ideas about the point of these articles.  I think they're useful because Steve's articles are frequently heavy on theory (which I love) and they provide a very useful point of contact between theory and practice.  They provide people with a nuanced view of a number of the format's most powerful and interesting decks.  What I think they don't do, or rather what I think they SHOULDN'T do, is replace actual testing by other teams and players and "teach" you how to play a matchup, etc.  I completely agree that Hulk is one of the format's flagship decks and that every deck in this format needs to know what to do against Hulk.  I think, however, that most of that work needs to be done by teams and players, and that as far as the articles Steve is writing for the magic community at large (Type 1 players and those who just keep tabs on the format occasionally, or enjoy Steve's writing--much like how I read Knut even when he's talking about Type 2, which I haven't played in about a year), it probably benefits us all if people get a sense for the full range of possibilities Type 1 has to offer, and don't come away with the impression that everything boils down to Hulk vs. X.

Plus, to the extent that these articles DO in fact end up demonstrating how to play vs. certain decks, I would submit that while Hulk will certainly be an issue at the top tables of Gencon or the SCG P9 tourney, etc., it would probably be more *widely* appropriate to discuss at least one matchup against a budget deck.  Like I said, I'm envisioning something like FCG or Fish vs. Slaver, NOT FCG vs. Fish as Steve seems to have thought.  But I promise you that especially with its recent success, there will be TONS of Fish at Gencon, and there are going to be a whole lot of players with spare Lackeys and Recruiters on hand as well.

Of course, I love these articles, so even if Steve's next matchup series is the Hulk mirror, I'll be happy.

[Smmenen]

I knew what you meant Justin - I was just taking it to extreme.

I think the articles are more interesting as you describe - not to replace the function of teams - but to provide a view into some of hte formats interesting matchups.

I have very little interest in doing Germbus, Slaver, or more Tog.  Belcher and Draw7 are both interesting to write about - but mostly becuase combo versus interesting is intersting to read, i think.

Doing these requires alot of work and I don't want to rehash matchups I've played in the past, or matchups that I won't enjoy playing.  Additionally, I don't want to do matchups just becuase they are going to be important this summer - I do have considerations for my own team as well.  

I enjoy playing FCG alot, so if a matchup comes up that would be interesting to pilot FCG against, I might do that.  I would love to play Draw7 against something - but throwing it up against Tog woudl be too much like the Long articles and not sufficiently interesting to put the time and effort into doing it.  

The format has SO many more options at least then when I was asking this question 6 months ago after my TnT v. Tog article.

I'll tell you something I'd like to do though: find me a GOOD Modular deck (ravager) and I'll throw it up something interesting.  Maybe Modular v. FCG or Modular v. Fish would be interesting - I think both matchups would be fascinating.  

Steve

[dicemanx]

Steve, great stuff. These match-up articles are both useful *and* entertaining, a rarity these days. I can't otherwise offer much feedback because I don't know Belcher that well, although the article gave me some insight into just how fragile that deck is and how difficult the decisions are that have to be made.

My suggestion for the next match-up would be to pit Slaver (control or Workshop) against anything that could compete against it. My preference would be for WS-Slaver vs Germbus.

[Swanky]

Yet another great article from the maw of Menendian.  Nice job!

Belcher doesn't seem to be commonly discussed- a fact that made pitting it against one of Type 1's "big dogs" all the more interesting.  As it's been mentioned, combo deck articles are typically interesting, and when said articles delve more into theory rather than a step-by-step concerning how to kill the person across the table, the article is definitely improved.

Have you considered doing articles that offer parallel comparative analyses?  For instance, pitting both FCG and Goblin Sligh against the same deck to point out why the former is the better to play while still outlining the intricacies of both decks?

[xrizzo]

My suggestion for the next match-up would be to pit Slaver (control or Workshop) against anything that could compete against it. My preference would be for WS-Slaver vs Germbus.

I second the call for WS Slaver v. Germbus.  I find it to be an incredibly balanced matchup - and it makes for some very interesting games.  

I think that landstill / fish / fcg versus an already established deck would be very interesting because of how often these matchups come up in tournaments.

Thanks for all your hard work.

[Tempe]

Here was a hand that came up in my testing - and I wasn't sure how to play it out, and even now after having put some thought into it, I'm still not entirely certain what the best play is. Here was the hand:

Elvish Spirit Guide,
Tinder Wall
Sol Ring
Chromatic Sphere,
Demonic Tutor
Spoils of the Vault
Living Wish

My top card was Wheel of Fortune and the third card from the top was Demonic Consultation.

I'd be delighted to see what you can come up with. Just reply to the thread of this article with your suggestions.

Just so you know, here was the draw that Joe had, so I had to beat this:

Ancestral Recall, Intuition, Gorilla Shaman, Force of Will, Flooded Strand, Brainstorm, and Mana Crypt. Certainly this qualifies as a "God" draw for Tog - so if you can figure out how to maximize your chances against it, you are good to go with Belcher.

If I knew he had a Force of Will in his hand, I would likely mulligan mine, because if he counters anything (like the Tinder Wall), you're dead in the water. You would need a hand that has at least 2 threats in it, and this one is an extremely vulnerable 1 threat hand. If he did not have force, I would likely go ESG -> Tinder Wall -> Sol Ring -> Chromatic Sphere -> Demonic Tutor (Lotus) -> Lotus -> Wheel of Fortune to see what I could get., while hopefully screwing up my opponent's hand.

--Tempe

[Methuselahn]

Nice work.  Obviously alot of work here!  It was like reading a tournament report, but with the intent to explain the decks.  How nice!  Stopping Belcher by using Instants and Sorceries instead of perms is certainly tough, and I think it does a nice job at showing how Tog can defend itself with the wish plan.

As fast as the deck is, I would still have problems convincing myself to play it.  Especially in a big tournament.  I would hate to make to the top 4 and then lose because my draws decided to be bad that time.  The deck is really random in the most erratic format.  This may be why it's not showing up more despite it's quickness.

Here's a couple of matchup suggestions:

Any mirror matchup with Chalice.   Well any Workshop/Control deck mirror.  

Any deck with Standstill vs a deck that normally goes ~50% with it.  That will give you the opportunity to explain why it sucks, or not.

[walkingdude]

The match up I'd most like to see is tog v. tog. This is (or should be) the defining and most frequent match happening and more people would probably benefit from this than anything else.

[Jakedasnake]

I completely agree, great article Steve.

Control Slaver seems like a great deck, considering the matchup it has against Tog. If Control Slaver can fight its way through the early tables, I think it'll be the deck to beat.

I'd very much like to see a similar article with Control Slaver.

Keep up the great work.

[theorigamist]

Tempe, but what if you also didn't know that the next card was Wheel of Fortune?  Would you gamble using your Demonic to get Black Lotus if you didn't draw something useful from Sphere?  If the Chromatic Sphere doesn't draw you something useful, then you've got BR floating and Demonic Tutor for something that you can cast with only the colorless from Sol Ring on turn 2.  In other words, you're still playing too slow of a game.

[mogote]

Great article (as usual).

I would like to see a future matchup like FCG or GAT vs. a Slaver-variant.

[PucktheCat]

Steve,

I thought it was a great article.  The best way I can describe your articles is "distilled testing."  They don't replace real testing, but they sure do more to supplement it than anything else out there.

I had only one issue:

Force of Will is objectively more powerful in Tog. Why? Aggro Control decks aren't as easily able to mulligan aggressively into Force of Will. Fish tries not to mulligan at all and GAT doesn't have enough steam to really break the Quirion Dryad if it mulligans too much. As a result, you win because of how fast the deck is. Additionally, and I found this to have won me at least two or three games in the Fish match was that I would preemptively Living Wish for Scavenger Folk and let them just sit there like a Seal of Cleansing for Null Rod - but I'd win before a Grim Lavamancer would go active.

Any player that doesn't mulligan aggresively with Fish against Belcher is simply playing wrong.  The deck doesn't like to mulligan in "real" games, but games against Belcher are completely degenerate.  There are only seven cards in your deck that matter: 4 FoW and 3 Null Rod.

If you don't have one you mulligan - end of story.

If you are going second and you don't have a Force you should probably mulligan EVEN IF you have a second turn Null Rod.  If you are going first 2nd turn Null Rod is probably a worthwhile risk since it is hard for Belcher to both play the Charbelcher and activate it first turn.

These two cards are your only considerations against Belcher.  If you have two Wastelands and a Null Rod you don't mulligan to try for a U-source because U-sources aren't needed to cast FoW or Null Rod.

Leo

[Smmenen]

Oh - I agree that Fish and Gro must do so - but my point is that it is a lose-lose decision for them.  Therefore, when making that decision to mulligan in the totality of the circumstances - that presumption is slightly tilted in favor of not mulliganing.  For example, if Belcher mulls to 6, and Fish is going first and you have Rod but not FoW, then you probably shouldn't mull.  But if they keep a hand of 7, you may have to.  And if they go to 5, you definately shouldn't, even though Tog could without as much harm.

Steve

[LordHomerCat]

FCG vs Slaver seems like an interesting matchup, I'd be very interested in seeing a FCG matchup to see just how it plays out, when you go for combo vs. aggro, and then how slaver tries to react, if its better to try for a lock or to go aggro.  FCG vs Slaver gets my vote.

I found this article very informative, I had not seen any reports or tested out Belcher at all, and it really makes a lot more sense now how tinder walls can lead to first turn kills.  And, it might just be me, but I tend to enjoy the longer articles more, as there is a lot more theory and discussion in them, which means that I learn a lot more (for instance, what makes a good belcher hand, when to mulligan, etc.).

[PucktheCat]

I go to five often with Fish against Combo.  I don't understand why it would be any worse for Fish than Tog.  Tog has more good draw spells to get back in the game, but it also needs more mana to get going and it doesn't have any single spell that ends the game quite like Null Rod (especially for two mana).

I would mulligan down to four with Fish if Belcher was keeping a seven card hand and I hadn't seen any Force or Null Rod.  At least then I have the chance of getting a Land, Land, Null Rod hand.  What can a Tog player hope for if they don't see Force in their mulligans?  Mana Crypt, Volcanic, Tropical, Wish?  That is a far weaker backup plan than Null Rod and less likely as well.

Leo

[Smmenen]

I think my response was more applicable with Gro simply becuase Tog is much faster.

Steve

[PucktheCat]

10-4.  I can't speak for Gro one way or another.

Leo

[Smmenen]

Not sure what that means - but the problem with Null Rod as opposed to *actually* winning is that Belcher is quite good at finding Scavenger Folk enough of the time to win matches.  If you mull to 4 and just hope to FoW and then Rod on turn 2-3, I think that will very, very often be insufficient.

Steve

[PucktheCat]

I think you are wrong about that . . . especially with the one land version you are endorsing.

Think about it: with Null Rod in play this deck has no mana sources except 1 Trop, 4 Spirit Guide and 4 Tinder Wall (and Channel, technically).  You also have no way to cast the Tinder Wall.  Belcher also has only two Wishes as well.  It has no remaining search except Brainstorms (which it has no way to shuffle after) and a single Ancestral.  On the other side of the board we have the following cards that provide relevent disrutption to this process:

4 Grim Lavamancer
4 Spiketail Hatchling
2 Voidmage Prodigy

4 Force of Will
2 Daze
1 Stifle
4 Wasteland
1 Strip Mine

It also has a number of relevant draw spells:
4 Curiosity
4 Standstill (Yes, this is relevant against Belcher if played correctly)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Library of Alexandria (not relevant if you have mulliganed heavily)

It is certainly not impossible that Belcher will win if you get a Null Rod in play before you lose, but it is not a large enough issue that I would alter my gameplan substantially to deal with it.  I have played perhaps 30 or so test games at this matchup in the past few days and not one has involved Belcher removing a second turn Null Rod.  Several have involved Belcher winning before the Null Rod resolved, and one involved Belcher removing a Null Rod that resolved later in the game (one it had time to prepare for).  This testing has been with a mix of 1 and 2 land versions, and even the two land versions didn't manage the feat.

Leo

[Smmenen]

That's backwards.  You pre-emptorily find Scavenger Folk in the Fish matchup.  You don't wait until they cast Null Rod.

Steve

[PucktheCat]

When it works, that's great.  That was what happened in the game where Belcher killed a Null Rod that resolved third turn.  If a Null Rod is coming down second turn, though, it isn't much easier to get down a Scavenger Folk than it is to just win - which is to say possible but not easy.  You only have two Wishes, right?

At any rate, we are comparing Hulk's strategy against this deck to Fish's.  Are you saying that Null Rod, which requires a Scavenger folk to remove, is better than Hulk's removal options, all of which (except the single Shaman, which Gay/r runs as well) are negated by a Welder (a creature Belcher has maindeck in addition to the sideboard, and which Hulk has no maindeck removal for, unlike Gay/r's 4 Lavamancer)?

Leo

[rozetta]

Actually, something like Keeper versus Workshop Slavery might be a nice one to see. You know what I really want to see, though? Type 2 Ravager Affinity versus Type 1 Suicide black

[Mon, Goblin Chief]

Steve, that was a GREAT article. I can't wait to see more of them. You present the "unknown" deck of the two (so that most readers should be familar with both decks by than) and than show at the hand of sample games play by play how both decks work AND how the matchup works out. That's a pretty complete package of information about the MD matchup nicely compressed and backed up by theory. Exactly what the Doctor prescribed (is that saying actually used in English?)!
That the article is also enjoyable to read looses importance in the face of all the facts in it.
I want MORE !

As for the decks chosen for that, I'd really enjoy Fish vs "anything good", I want to see the little men in action for once. I don't care much for the opposing deck, as long as it is something that one would want to play in a big tournament.

Tempe, but what if you also didn't know that the next card was Wheel of Fortune? Would you gamble using your Demonic to get Black Lotus if you didn't draw something useful from Sphere? If the Chromatic Sphere doesn't draw you something useful, then you've got BR floating and Demonic Tutor for something that you can cast with only the colorless from Sol Ring on turn 2. In other words, you're still playing too slow of a game.

You would most probably use C-Sphere for B anyway. After you've done that you KNOW that you have just drawn Wheel. As my opponent didn't mulligan, I'd suspect him having a FoW, though, which makes that play still not optimal, imo.
(@Tempe: I think Steve was going first here, so he didn't know his opponent wouldn't have to mulligan for FoW. The hand is still questionable vs Control, imo, because of all the one-shot mana)

Elvish Spirit Guide,
Tinder Wall
Sol Ring
Chromatic Sphere,
Demonic Tutor
Spoils of the Vault
Living Wish

There are two good ways I think how to go with that hand:

Number one:

Assume the opponent has FoW, as he didn't mulligan.

ESG->Tinder Wall
Sac Wall (RR),
Sol Ring+tap (R2),
C-Sphere, sac for B drawing Wheel (RB),
Spoils for Land Grant (R),
Land Grant->Bayou play&tap it for G (RG),
Demonic->Lotus

turn 2:
tap Bayou + Sol Ring (2B)
Living Wish->Welder
Lotus and sac for R (RRR1)
Welder (RR1)
Wheel.

Number 2:

Assume the opponent has FoW, as he didn't mulligan.

turn 1

ESG->Tinder Wall
Sac Wall (RR),
Sol Ring+tap (R2),
C-Sphere, sac for B drawing Wheel (RB),
Spoils for Land Grant (R),
Land Grant->Bayou play&tap it for G (RG),
Living Wish->Xantid Swarm

turn 2:
tap bayou for Swarm

turn 3:
Demonic->Lotus->Wheel

All assuming they have FoW:
Number one leaves you in a good position if you topdeck alright (remeber you can Weld in C-Sphere or Lotus).
Important point: you pretty much dodge Mana Drain and all Tutors become must counters.

This opens you up to Mana Drain  but if they don't have the second counter turn 3 you win instead of just having Welder + 3 Mana (though you can get to 6 mana with the help of Welder).
I'm not sure which one is the correct play vs Tog, as I haven't played that matchup extensively enough (and both plans will probably loose to that hand of Tog, anyway).

/comment: where you still playing the 2 land version at that moment? If you only have Tropical here,  you've got a big problem, because you can't cast both Spoils and Demonic for something good./

[Addolorisi]

I'd like to chime in for an FCG matchup.