The Long View

[Ric_Flair]

There are a number of threads right now discussing which card should be restricted (if any) in the format.  These short term views are extremely helpful, but I have been thinking about the long term.  What will the format look like in five years?  I know that this is really speculative, but there are few trends that I think are inevitable.  They may not come true today, tomorrow, or even next year, but unless something radical happens I think the following are a given:

1) A card or cards will be banned in Vintage.
2) Mishra's Workshop will be restricted.
3) There will either be a major reset on the power level of restricted cards OR the upper most tier of unrestricted cards will be very heavily populated.
4) A major combo piece will be hammered onto the restricted list.
5) Amazing expensive card hosers will be printed or reprinted.
6) Combat creatures will not get better than Troll Ascetic.
7) 187 creatures will not get better than Eternal Witness and ability creatures will not get better than Welder.

1) Bannings

Oh boy will this raise the ire of some people.  I think that we all know that as more and more cards get added to the format restriction is not enough.  This is the critical mass argument, writ large.  In five years, if Vintage is still around and new cards are being made, there will eventually be a card that is too good even with only one per deck.  Tutors, fast mana, and Draw7s, despite their corrupting influence on Vintage, are still being printed.  Add more of these and the restriction of these types of effects is useless.  Most likely to go in the following order:  Yawg Will (but then you knew that, Aaron told us as much), Tolarian Academy, Yawg Bargain (huge drop off after this card) then Mind's Desire, and Memory Jar.  Imagine how few cards would be on the restricted list without these craptacular design mistakes?  

2) MWS gone

One of the bg complaints about MWS, its best strike in favor of leaving it alone, is the fact that MWS decks are inconsistent.  But the more quality artifacts you make the more consistent this deck will be.  Eventually only inherent inconsistency, that is the randomness of a truly random shuffle, will limit the power of MWS.  I am not sure if we are there yet, but it might be getting close.

3) Reseting the bar or lots of great cards

I think the Crucible thread shows what I am talking about.  Either one of the problem child cards (cards that the community has complained about on and off for years) is going to get the axe and the rest will fall down a slippery slope, or Wizards will tolerate a huge number of explosive cards.  Is there really any historical proof that Mana Drain is worse than Crucible?  What about Dark Ritual, Intuition, Goblin Welder, MWS?  All of these uber good unrestricted cards are right on the cusp.  Kill one and it makes sense that eventually you'd have to kill them all.

4) Killing Combo

Again with the publishing of more and more cards, more and more combos are going to be discovered.  Sooner or later a major engine card like Dark Ritual or Tendrils will have to go.  But Tendrils being restricted probably won't do much.  What about ESG, Charbelcher, or some other card?  I don't know what the card will be, Dark Ritual seeming like the most likely choice, but eventually something has to give.

5) Hosers

With Forsythe going to SCG II and playing it in and the printing of cards like Chalice, it is clear that Wizards is trying to support Vintage.  I think that it is safe to say this trend will continue and we will see more cards of the Null Rod ilk in the sets to come.  Lowering the cost of entry and shaking things up is a good thing for the format.  Now if they could just print a maindeck Blue Power and Yawg Will hate card, Green based decks would have a chance.  Maybe put them on the same card, like a cheap creature.

6) Combat Creatures

I think we have come to the end of the line, design wise, with Troll Ascetic.  Really can they make a better combat (non-ability) creature that is any better for three mana?  I don't think so.  I also think it is easy to extrapolate from here the baseline of combat creatures.

7) 187 Creatures

Eternal Wintess, likewise is the best we will see in terms of 187s.  Same with Goblin Welder.  How could they make better creatures like these with ruining the game?

Any thoughts?  What do you think about my predictions?  Any of your own?

[Bram]

Browse through the card creation forum's master list. You'll find (among a lot of crap) some real jewels there. Cards that are interesting in every format. Wizards is sure to think of them too eventually (*insert random infinite monkeys remark*). There's loads and loads of untapped potential in our game and I don't think Wizards wil have to resort to making crap cards for fear of breaking our format.

Statistically, speaking, around 14% of the cards available to us actually show up in Top 8's, and it takes 200 cards to make up 86% of all T8 cards. It looks relatively healthy. I don't think rigourous actions woud ever be necessary. Our format is broken, but it isn't broken. Know what I'm saying?

[JACO]

1) A card or cards will be banned in Vintage.
2) Mishra's Workshop will be restricted.
3) There will either be a major reset on the power level of restricted cards OR the upper most tier of unrestricted cards will be very heavily populated.
4) A major combo piece will be hammered onto the restricted list.
5) Amazing expensive card hosers will be printed or reprinted.

I think this is YOUR wish/vision for the long term, more than any reality. You once proclaimed it would be your life's misssion to get Yawgmoth's Will on the banned list, so I'm not sure how serious I can take any of your arguments. Yawgmoth's Will doesn't need to be banned, nor does Memory Jar or Tolarian Academy. They are all extremely powerful, and are 1-ofs. For every strategy in Magic (and most other good games), there is a counter-strategy, or foil to that strategy. While you can certainly abuse these cards, there is nothing wrong with them in moderation (i.e. restriction).

7) 187 creatures will not get better than Eternal Witness and ability creatures will not get better than Welder.

Just for your future reference, '187' has typically referred to creatures that KILL (187; the police code for homicide) something when they come into play, ala Nekrataal, Bone Shredder, Uktabi Orangutan, Viridian Shaman, etc. Eternal Witness does not kill anything when it comes into play, although it does have a comes into play ability. It is not a 187 creature, nor is Worldgorger Dragon.

Restricting Dark Ritual, Mishra's Workshop, Trinisphere, Crucible of Worlds, or anything else that some of you people can't or choose not to deal with, would be a mistake. Mishra's Workshop is obviously quite powerful, but quite limited. It can't tap for colorless, and can't even pay for something like Energy Flux. Nothing needs to be restricted right now, although Doomsday might make 'the leap' in the coming year, as better strategies appear to abuse it, and decklists are refined.

While good and occasionally broken cards continue to be printed, there's nothing that good old fashion deck building can't counter. The flaw in the 'critical mass' argument is that, while there are thousands of card printed, there are always hosers available in that huge card pool. They just need to be unearthed and used. The format has become quite balanced, and people are slowly learning how to metagame correctly to hose the most popular strategies from the previous month. When a PTQ-type following is reached, and the world's community is connected via the 'Net, there is no need for questionable restrictions and bannings, because people will be properly metagaming enought to combat strategies that were previously thought to be dominant (in the previous weeks, months, or years).

Our format is ba-ro-ken, but it isn't broken.

[Saucemaster]

Eternal Witness does not kill anything when it comes into play, although it does have a comes into play ability. It is not a 187 creature, nor is Worldgorger Dragon.

Though you could argue that, given the way it's actually used, WGD is the ULTIMATE 187 creature.

[Ric_Flair]

I think this is YOUR wish/vision for the long term, more than any reality.

The point of the thread is to try to predict was is going to happen down the road.  I am trying to scope out inevitable changes.  Obviously it is impossible to predict card design and short term changes, but certain things are almost certain to happen so long as more cards are being made.  None of these things are things I would advocate for.  They are just observations that I think are likely given what will happen.  I even said they were my opinion:

What do you think about my predictions? Any of your own?

As far as the 187 I am sorry for the misnomer.

[MuzzonoAmi]

Why does it seem that every time Steve starts playing a new deck or a new set is released, we start talking about what needs to be restricted? I seriously think that Yawgmoth's Will is now out of banning range, since it's no longer the kill engine in a deck that is borderline metagame distorting.
As for Workshop, I think that it's become such an integral part of the metagame that restricting it has greater potential for harm than good, especially with regard to everyone's favorite boogeyman, Combo.

With regard to everything else, I basically agree.

[jpmeyer]

The reason that I could see Will being banned at some point isn't because of power level issues or random wins, but because it puts such huge constraints on card design.

With regards to the creature power issues, I'm really having trouble thinking of how you could make creatures more powerful than Welder/Ascetic/Witness.

Combo seems like a hard point to pin down for me.  Belcher has shown that there is enough legal mana acceleration that you can play a deck with only one land.  Cards like Seething Song and (so far) Desperate Ritual have shown that mana acceleration looks fair once you make it cost 2 mana, but what about underused mana accelerants like Tinder Wall?  What's their place in the deckbuilding world?  I point this out because as it stands, there's a very solid "core" that any new combo decks could be built around should a potentially combolicious card comes out in a future set, so at that point do you just keep nailing any new combo cards that come out, or do you hit one of those core cards like Dark Ritual?  Necropotence isn't the best example here because of how powerful that card was in the first place, but if you look at how many different combo decks have come out since Necro was restricted (as well as some pseudo-combo decks like Mask), you can see how these cores can end up being problems.

[Machinus]

First I would like to say that it would be interesting to see some analysis, like a graph or timeline, of the bannings and restrictions in Type 1 over time - not to see how power levels fluctuate, but to see how R&D has changed their policy over time by looking at when changes occur, if they are new cards or because of new cards, or if because of other factors like increase in innovation.

1) A card or cards will be banned in Vintage.

I disagree here. There are many reasons why this is really unlikely to happen, including what Jaco said about counterstrategies, especially in such a huge card pool. Another reason is that Vintage is becoming popular enough that WotC is taking an interest, and to add to the policy of banning for extremely good and clear reasons like ante and dexterity, to something like uber-brokenness would be very unpopular. The DCI is re-maturing to a point where it can better analyze and manipulate the Type 1 card pool and I just don't see banning is an option when so many more people understand how broken combo and prison cards (will, mws) keep Type 1 from becoming a really mundane format.

2) Mishra's Workshop will be restricted.

This is possible, certainly, but I don't think we are going to see any artifacts anywhere as good as what we got in the last block. If we do it will be one or two and they can't possibly be as efficient as the MD5 stuff...unless they are hosers.

3) There will either be a major reset on the power level of restricted cards OR the upper most tier of unrestricted cards will be very heavily populated.

Isn't the upper tier already supersaturated? And if you mean you see a significant number of things both going on and coming off the B&R at the same time, I don't think the DCI is willing to take this kind of risk with such a volatile and powerful format. They have been trying to earn our respect and make good decisions with their past few announcements, and I think they have earned much favor by taking things slowly.

4) A major combo piece will be hammered onto the restricted list.

Inevitable, almost trivial.

5) Amazing expensive card hosers will be printed or reprinted.

I'm not sure they could print stuff that is much better than what we have. They can't make cards that are good and also hosers, because that is not fair. However, reprinting is certainly possible. I could easily see red and green hosers coming back. R&D could print a good 2cc counter with REB and 1cc black discard. Reprinting is also something that we know is going to happen.

6) Combat creatures will not get better than Troll Ascetic.

This is exactly what I thought when I saw this card for the first time. There is nowhere else to go in the old abilities.

7) 187 creatures will not get better than Eternal Witness and ability creatures will not get better than Welder.

You have to keep in mind that welder is only good because it interacts with artifacts. It is not inherently superbroken. They can print things that are really good by themselves, but comparatively, don't have the huge environment of support to work with. This is something I think they will do.

[dandan]

I don't think Wizards will or even need to ban anything. There is already a very high bar for restricting stuff in Type I (although a seemingly very low bar for keeping stuff on the Restricted List) and banning YawgWill or even Academy would not dramatically shorten the B&R list much more than a little common-sense tidy-up of the list anyway (basically Crop Rotation could come off the list if TA was banned). Several of the weak B&R cards are fast mana cards that are part of the combo-core so would stay restricted anyway.

As far as critical mass, we got to the point where combo doesn't even have to run Spoils (1 cc Instant for any card - small chance of killing yourself) and not all 0cc mana generators are usually run. The less powerful draw cards are occasionally used but not universally. Basically combo already has all of the tools needed to go off on turn 2 reliably but the difficult bit is getting a combo deck that gets past control (read - doesn't curl up and die to 1 FoW and can still win facing 2 Islands). Adding more mana generators or even search cards (Imperial Seal?) won't affect that. Only cards that can act as mana/search/dig or search/kill or disruption/kill can revolutionise combo (as Wishes and Tendrils did).

Type I has certain flagship cards, it is hard to compare the B&R list to Workshop and Mana Drain and say that they should be unrestricted. However, these cards will never be restricted unless it is proven (via Tournament results) that they are worthy of restriction, despite the fact that we all know that Shop and Drain>Grim Monolith and Frantic Search. Given the current diverse metagame, it is hard to imagine Mana Drain ever getting restricted and if Workshop survives Mirrodin block it is highly unlikely to ever get restricted.

For me, the long term view of Type I revolves around the answer to the following question -

What can be done to allow newer players access to Type I without hurting the magic community as a whole?

I honestly believed that Wizards had painted themselves into a corner about reprints and that accepting proxied-tournaments would be the logical choice. Recent price rises in top-end Type I cards seemed to confirm the view that proxies actually stimulate the singles market rather than hurt it. However, Aaron Forsythe's recent (largely pro-Type I) article seems to suggest that Wizards are still 100% against official support of proxied events. Where does this leave us?

Let's look at the options

1. Wizards do nothing.
Probablility - likely
Consequences - Growth of Type I is stunted due to high initial cost of being competitive and certain deck types are underplayed due to card availability/cost (Workshop decks). Type I continues to include a large number of uncompetitive decks and local metagames.

2. Wizards allow 5 proxy events to be sanctioned ('allow' could mean abusing the current rules for allowing proxies at the TO's discretion if the player has the original)
Probability - I honestly expect Wizards to turn a blind eye to sanctioned tournaments somewhere that one way or another allow proxies. I would be very surprised to see an official acceptance anytime soon.
Consequences - See Eastern USA, more players, more tournaments, a thriving secondary market and a more distinct metagame. I would be interested if the rise of Type I has hit Type II sales, I strongly suspect that it hasn't (many companies view it as a good thing if customers continue to buy product after the initial 3 years!).

2b. Wizards allows the 'Zherbus proposal' (not a Magic card) of allowing proxies of older cards (say Dark or before) that have not been reprinted. This appears to be more trader friendly but would need to be limited in order to avoid damaging the top-end market.
Probability - Higher than 2. as it is an easier sell to allow access to cards that are less accessible whilst ensuring the collectability of newer cards.
Consequences - As 2.

3. Wizards reprints a Type I set.
Probability - Virtually nil, Wizards policy is set against this. Whilst demand remains high, there is always a chance but I'm not holding my breath. The new card layout and even the textless cards have increased the possibility of this happening.
Consequences - Angry collectors and traders although past experience has shown that players like the originals. There would be a very large upsurge in Type I and probably a downturn in Type II (hence the commonly-held belief that such a reprint would happen only when Magic is in terminal decline).

4. Wizards reprints individual cards as rewards
Probability - Higher than a set but still pretty low. Still after the DCI Balance, we can live in hope.
Consequences - Little to none. Possibly irate traders although I suspect that most Type I traders already understand that anything that raises interest in Type I helps them. Even in the new card format, that alternative art Black Lotus seems pretty cool (look in Community to see the mock-ups). Foil Lotus would be a must-have for Samite Healers everywhere (actually Foil Chinese Lotus).

[Ric_Flair]

Imagine this scenario:  Wizards opens up Vintage to Portal.  In comes a ton of garbage and a few really good Tutors.  

Imperial Seal comes in and a few other tutors accompany it and all of sudden even Brainstorm is too slow for a combo deck.  The deck becomes broken win condition, free/cheap acceleration, draw 7s and tutors.  I am not sure how restrictions could solve this problem.  Admittedly some of the awful acceleration does not see play, but too many good tutors is a bad idea.

Imagine this scenario:  Wizards prints cheap green and white creatures that truly hose Blue Power and Workshops.  Think about how innocous this creature would be in non-Vintage formats and how kickass it would be in Vintage:

Green Hoser Creature
G
1/2
Artifacts that cost 0 can't be played.

That would really change the score.  

Imagine this scenario:  Wizards unrestricts a card and a recently printed card combos with it ridiculously...oh what don't imagine.  It happened.  Beacon of Destruction's interaction with Doomsday is exactly the sort of critical mass that makes combo dangerous and in my mind makes it clear that eventually, if they keep printing cards, Yawg Will or another uber-broken card will get the ax.

As far as making the game more accessible I feel that banning cards would make the game more accessible.  Before you go crazy let me say that this is in the long term, not right now.  Here is my argument:

1.  Decks that cannot go broken geometrical, that is lack a way to abuse broken cards, cannot, by in large, win consistently over time in Vintage.  Fish is a perfect example.  

2.  Most of the cards that are capable of geometric abuse are the most egregious offenders on the restricted list.  Academy, Will, Bargain, and Jar come to mind.  All of these cards make other, more expensive cards better.  Academy with Moxen and MWS, Will and Bargain with Blue Power, and Jar with MWS and Moxen.  

3.  Cutting out these geometrically abusive cards will make less broken inhabitants of the restricted list merely good cards.  

4.  Decks that lack the ability to geometrically abuse expensive cards will no longer have an inherent strategic superiority to decks like Fish, Zoo, and other decks that are cheap to make.

I am not sure if that makes sense, but in the long run getting rid of these cards might help.  I am open to suggestions and I am aware that people really like no banned cards.  I just think that in the long run, after 15 years of Magic, the format will be suffering a great deal because of this predisposition.

[Machinus]

Ric, it sounds like you want to get rid of the most broken aspects of Vintage. Now, this may not be news to other posters here, but I don't understand why this is the case. It is the juicy, powerful, and broke-ass combos between cards that makes playing and deckbuilding fun. It is EXACTLY the geometric brokenness that is what makes Type I so much fun. Take one of the cards you mentioned and put it in Type II (they were all there at one time, and many of them were never restricted), and it won't do nearly as much because the support cards don't exist to produce true brokenness. But in Type I that recall can get you the game off the top of your library.

Balance is one of the cards that fits exactly into this idea, and I am very hesitant to say that Balance is "super broken." It doesn't remove artifacts, has a symmetrical effect, and is actually not as good as it was in weaker formats. But balance is an awesome card to play with the other cards that represent the geometric breaking phenomenon. I think that this level of interaction needs to exist in order to provide the power, speed, and in the end, enjoyment that attracts people to Type I. People don't play Type I so that they can attack with angels, or fishies, or ravagers. In my opinion, people play Type I precisely because of the brokenness.

[Mykeatog]

Though I don't have much to add I do have this to say...

I hope that no matter what, Wizards allows me to play with every fucking card ever printed. I understand and agree that eventually something will have to go- but be in Yawgmoth's Will, or Wild Mongrel- it will be a sad day for vintage.

Ric - I know you get a lot of shit for the way you look at things, as I have even given to you myself, but; I just wanted to commend you on how you keep commin' back for more.

That being said... I think some of you should seriously consider using the new '1.5' format as a playing field. They don't even have remotely broken things there. As Vintage get's more broken and the cost continues to go up - I anticipate that format getting more play.

[Smmenen]

I don't think that format will get much play becuase I don't see a) big tournaments being held for it b) good players establishing the metagame and c) it can't possibly be as fun as playing with Ancestral Recall and Time Walk.

I think that Workshop will never be restricted (it's lasted this long) and over time will get progressively weaker again.  

I could definately see them banning Will.

One question that people seem to have forgotten about is whether there should be a rule that limits the number of restricted cards in a deck.  Such a move WOULD kill combo but little else.

[SliverKing]

One question that people seem to have forgotten about is whether there should be a rule that limits the number of restricted cards in a deck.  Such a move WOULD kill combo but little else.

I think that one move would go a long way, not just to killing current combo monstrosities, but to making future additions to the restricted list actually mean something.

[Phantom Tape Worm]

One question that people seem to have forgotten about is whether there should be a rule that limits the number of restricted cards in a deck.  Such a move WOULD kill combo but little else.

I think that one move would go a long way, not just to killing current combo monstrosities, but to making future additions to the restricted list actually mean something.

I seem to remember someone proposing this idea last year...  

[Smmenen]

I don't actually want that to happen, but it IS an option.

[Ric_Flair]

Everyone seems to think that I hate this format.  I don't.  I love playing with Yawgmoth's Will.  But Wizards is interested in opening the format up.  Forsythe asked people at SCG II what could be done to open the format up to new players.  There is a concerted effort to lower the barrier of entry and given what they did to 1.5, I am not sure if it is safe to say that they will never ban a card, never restrict the number of restricted cards, and the like.  They will not reprint cards and they will not make proxies legal, but short of that, I think anything is fair game, especially in the long term, which is what I am trying to look at.  One solution that I see is banning the cards that allow for geometric abuse.  It will still leave the moxen, which I believe are the defining element of Vintage, but it would make decks that run moxen and nothing else at least regularly competitive.  The only other solution I have heard is the one Steve put out there.  Does anyone else have an idea?  

It is important right now because this is perhaps the most interest there has ever been in the format.  Can anyone recall when Wizards, former enemy of Vintage, sent an official "face" of the game to an event?  When there were multiple national tournaments?  When there were cards regularly being included in new sets aimed at the format?  Wizards is interested in Vintage now more than ever and we owe it to them to respond with some genuinely good ideas.

[Machinus]

I don't think it would be correct to say that we haven't provided a myriad of new ideas, if it is accessibility that WotC wants. Essentially, it is not our problem Ric, even though we stand to benefit greatly from added support and exposure.

WotC has to come to terms with some hard facts. There is a significantly smaller amount of essential Type I cards than for any other format. People need sets of duals and drains to play and WotC can't do anything to help with that. Power cards cost a lot of money, and they can only be bought on the secondary market. The only way to reduce the price of legal power cards would be to reprint them or to sanction proxy tournaments. We all know that this is never going to happen. It is hypocritical for WotC to come to us asking for our help in making Type I "more accessible" when they categorically discount the only real solutions to that.

I don't think WotC ever intended for Type I to exist, in the way that it does today. I don't think they thought that there would be so many players who wanted to play the original cards. I don't think they expected us because we don't fit into their business model and we don't make them very much money. Since we know that is their first priority, then we can already see that there isn't really anywhere serious for this relationship to go. This explains the localization of the format, the history of poor decisions by the DCI in regards to the format, and the significant lack of acknowledgement by WotC in the past.

There are some significant changes in store for the B/R in the future. I can't say whether or not this change is going to come from inside or outside the DCI, but I do know that we have had a positive effect on their policies before and we will have this power later, if we need it. However, I think we need to consider the possibility that there isn't a solution here that is going to satisfy both our community and the people at WotC. Proxy tournaments are precious to us and I think by now most people have realized how important they are for Type I. If someone else can think of a way to serve our community as well as that and do something for WotC at the same time, then I think that is great. But I am skeptical about that being possible.

[dandan]

Imagine this scenario:  Wizards opens up Vintage to Portal.  In comes a ton of garbage and a few really good Tutors.  

Imperial Seal comes in and a few other tutors accompany it and all of sudden even Brainstorm is too slow for a combo deck.  The deck becomes broken win condition, free/cheap acceleration, draw 7s and tutors.  I am not sure how restrictions could solve this problem.  Admittedly some of the awful acceleration does not see play, but too many good tutors is a bad idea.

ROTFL

Ric, you are the new holder of the most original objection to legalising Portal (beating the 'f34r the horsemanship' objection). Using Imperial Seal as an example of a tutor that breaks critical mass in combo when Spoils of the Vault does all that the Seal does but at instant speed and gives you the damned card now, which frankly is when you want it, for the low low price of occasionally killing you, and Spoils doesn't even see play. Let's ignore the fact that Imperial Seal would almost certainly get restricted as the bastard (and retarded) brother of Vampiric Tutor.
Wizards are that worried about critical mass in Type I they unrestricted a card that lets you stack your entire (5 card) library ahead of Voltaic Key.  

You are wrong about reprints (don't you remember the revision of the reserved list?),  and Wizards are dipping their toes in the murky waters of proxies (Aaron not only went but wrote all about a proxy event). Wizards have come a long way and this willingness combined with other factors like price rises in the secondary market in response to proxy events, new card faces,  revamping Type 1.5 (suggests Wizards aren't actually that pleased that the average Magic players stops playing after 3 years - pretty much when they get told they can't use their cards) and growing numbers of Type I tournaments and active players.

I am not expecting anything to happen soon but I would be amazed if the topics of reprints and proxies are not brought up on a regular basis at Wizards.  As has been mentioned before, if Wizards asks us what can be done to improve accessibility, I'll damned well tell them, even if it is not the answer they would like to hear. Limited cards= Limited format. Limited supply->Limit to demand.  I bet Hasbro must be heartbroken to hear that Wizards could put out a set of reprints that would sell like hot cakes or that Wizards could print blank cards and still sell them!! The problems some people have.

Machinus - It would be wrong to assume that Type I players do not significantly contribute to Wizards' bank balance. We buy singles (keeping their retail outlets going) and we are interested in new sets. We also help keep semi-active players in the game and bring new players into it. I believe that Wizards are aware that we are a significant revenue source. I was amazed  to see Wizards admit that the average player quits Magic after 3 years (how do they do that?), most businesses who see that would ask the question 'What can we do to stop our customers going away?''. Type 1 (and the new Type 1.5) are the answer to their problem.

[Smmenen]

I don't think Imperial Seal deserves restriction.

Also, we should talk about unrestriction.

I think that Stroke MUST be unrestricted.  I wouldn't mind seeing Mind Twist unrestricted either.  It's pretty bad.

We should talk about Voltaic Key.  I'm not sure about this one.

[dandan]

If Entomb is restricted and Vampiric is restricted, then Imperial Seal is clearly a strong contender for restriction.  From my point of view, about the only reason left for not allowing Portal is that it would allow decks to use 5 Vampirics if Imperial Seal were left unrestricted therefore I say Imperial Seal should be restricted. It is far more worthy of restriction that about 20% of the current list anyway.

Having said that (and I apologise for repeatedly picking on Spoils), Spoils appears to show us that combo already has a sufficiently wide choice of dig/search/draw that it can now select the most suitable. Adding bad tutors to Type I will not mean 'critical mass' because we are already past that point. Stuff like Personal Tutor and Imperial Seal may well act as high level skill testers. Funnily enough, given Rics post, you would almost certainly want Brainstorm in decks that use such cards.

[Smmenen]

No its not.  

Imperial Seal will likely see very little play.  That's why it doesn't deserve restriction.

There are other cards in portal far mroe deserving.

[Machinus]

Machinus - It would be wrong to assume that Type I players do not significantly contribute to Wizards' bank balance. We buy singles (keeping their retail outlets going) and we are interested in new sets. We also help keep semi-active players in the game and bring new players into it. I believe that Wizards are aware that we are a significant revenue source. I was amazed  to see Wizards admit that the average player quits Magic after 3 years (how do they do that?), most businesses who see that would ask the question 'What can we do to stop our customers going away?''. Type 1 (and the new Type 1.5) are the answer to their problem.

I will clarify.

Standard is the format which makes WotC by far the most money. The Pro Tour and high level events cost a lot of money to run, and they give out a lot of money in prizes. But so many people buy boxes, boosters, and singles from premium and retail stores that WotC can afford to spend what they do on it.

The other formats are not like this. While I don't know the revenue statistics, saying that Type I has a positive influence on the sales of magic cards and ultimately nets WotC money isn't really saying much.

The amount of money and time that WotC spends on Type I is appropriate for how much profit we give them. Right now that means we get some articles and they tell us that they are "interested." I am not complaining here, because I don't think there is a lot of room to grow, but I want to point out that its trivial that we influence sales for them in a positive manner, because it is nothing compared to the other formats. We are a tiny set of numbers. Even our player base is miniscule compared to Limited or Standard.

The end of this story is that WotC can't make money off Type I because they have nothing to sell us. I think it is fine to accept the place that we have relative to the company that made the game that started this - but it is not their game anymore.

[EDIT: My favorite portal cards for this topic are Strategic Planning and Goblin Lore. I think those are really awesome.]

[Ric_Flair]

Imagine this scenario:  Wizards opens up Vintage to Portal.  In comes a ton of garbage and a few really good Tutors.  

Imperial Seal comes in and a few other tutors accompany it and all of sudden even Brainstorm is too slow for a combo deck.  The deck becomes broken win condition, free/cheap acceleration, draw 7s and tutors.  I am not sure how restrictions could solve this problem.  Admittedly some of the awful acceleration does not see play, but too many good tutors is a bad idea.

ROTFL

Ric, you are the new holder of the most original objection to legalising Portal (beating the 'f34r the horsemanship' objection). Using Imperial Seal as an example of a tutor that breaks critical mass in combo when Spoils of the Vault does all that the Seal does but at instant speed and gives you the damned card now, which frankly is when you want it, for the low low price of occasionally killing you, and Spoils doesn't even see play. Let's ignore the fact that Imperial Seal would almost certainly get restricted as the bastard (and retarded) brother of Vampiric Tutor.
Wizards are that worried about critical mass in Type I they unrestricted a card that lets you stack your entire (5 card) library ahead of Voltaic Key.

I am not sure if Spoils of the Vault is openly superior to this card.  Demonic Consultation is the broken Spoils and it is vastly less dangerous.  Imperial Seal is worse than Vampiric Tutor, but Vampiric Tutor is definitely deserving of restriction.  In practice, how much slower is Imperial Seal than Vampiric Tutor?  No EOT action, granted, but both still are a loss of a draw.  I am not saying that it is even close to Vampiric Tutor, but it would still get restricted and deserve it.

That said, I am DEFINITELY in favor of adding Portal to the Vintage cardpool.  They would have to immediately restrict a few cards, but who cares?  They had to do that when they printed Mirrodin (see: Chrome Mox).  I am totally in favor of adding Portal.  

You are wrong about reprints (don't you remember the revision of the reserved list?)  

I never said anything about reprints.  They aren't happening.  But it is not because of the reserved list.  For the billionth time, the reserved list has no legal import at all.  They can do whatever they want with their intellectual property.  The reserved list is a marketing gimmick and nothing else.  It will remain in effect so long as it is profitable to do so.  And I mean profitable in the long term.

[Smmenen]

Imperial Seal is worse than Vampiric Tutor, but Vampiric Tutor is definitely deserving of restriction.  In practice, how much slower is Imperial Seal than Vampiric Tutor?  No EOT action, granted, but both still are a loss of a draw.  I am not saying that it is even close to Vampiric Tutor, but it would still get restricted and deserve it.
.

What evidence do you have for this?  What deck would actually play Imperial Seal.  Vampiric doesn't even see play in all Control decks as is, and I can tell you as a Combo innovator that I would NOT play Imperial seal in Meandeath or any other combo deck I play at the moment.

I just don't see people playing with it.  Its best use is probably in Stax to find Strip Mine with Crucible.

[Ric_Flair]

I'd obviously defer to a combo deckbuilder, but Imperial Seal has some potential.  With enough tutors could combo just drop search like Brainstorm and use a suite of tutors instead?  Demonic, Vampiric, Imperial Seal, Mystical Tutor, Personal Tutor.  That is a lot of go get it.  Any other Portal tutors worth mentioning, not that 2B tutor?

[dandan]

I HATE to do this, but this thread is not about the claims of Portal to inclusion in Type I, or which Portal cards (if any) warrant restriction as and when Portal becomes legal but about the long term view of Type I.

Going back on topic (and in paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaains me to move off the topic of Portal)

I  100% agree with Ric that the reserved list is not what is keeping Wizards from reprinting, Aaron Forsyth pointed out that printing broken cards would not send the right message about where Wizards wants Magic to go. I think that factor plus the obvious danger of diverting money from the cash cow of Type II are the main factors behind the resistance to reprints. However we have seen Collector's Edition, Foil Balance, admissions that the new card format allows the reprinting of cards that would otherwise never be reprinted (albeit not taling about the P9) and cards being removed from the reserved list plus (and this IS a biggie) the general consensus that the spreading Type I proxy tournament scene has not hit card prices.

Wizards have noted that proxy tournaments are a reality and are spreading. They acknowledge that they solve several of the problems associated with Type I. They point out that they can't condone proxies then act as if they do. They are fairly likely to make comments along the lines of 'we cannot sanction the use of proxies but if we did, this is what we would do....'. I have seen several people point out that TO can allow proxies for cards that people have at that tournament and that is a loophole you can drive the bus that hasn't run over Wizards in order to get them to reprint ManaDrain through.

Another thread in Community correctly points out that the new Type 1.5 is a format that Wizards can use to correct many of the ills of Type I. I completely agree. I doubt that 1.5 is any threat to Type I as it will serve as  an inlet to Type I for newer players and I think Type I and 1.5 will aid each other.
However I do not think that Wizards intend to leave Type I and concentrate on their new baby. We are the format that contains all the mistakes, cock-ups, design loopholes, potential turn 1 wins, savage swingy cards and just about everything that is bad in Magic (bar Fallen Empires) yet despite the fact that in Type I if it IS broken, you don't fix it, it kind of works. Wizards do not hate Type I, they play Type I (at least when nobody is watching and presumably using proxies).
They asked us what we wanted and the short answer is that we want people to be able to play Type I.  They have done a lot over the last year, they printed cards for newer players that allow them to get mana of different colours and a powerful artifact that you can play on turn 1 for 0 that stops oldies beating newbies by dropping expensive 0cc artifacts. They printed a card that stops people from casting huge amounts of cheap spells by making everything cost 3 or more. They reprinted Time Walk, made it funkier, made it cost 10 and made us play it. They reprinted Dwarven Miner, gave Green Disenchant and printed a card drawing engine for creature decks. Damn, they are trying really hard. But none of the above has helped newer players to start Type I.  The format has got more expensive and is still getting more expensive as budget decks have done the way of the dinosaur (Doomsday is not a budget deck).

We want Wizards to admit that it is a problem for newer players to get the cards necessary to be competitive in Type I and make a suggestion for solving the problem.

Note that Wizards releasing white-fronted cards for deck development purposes (like they use) would not  actually be sanctioning the use of proxies in tournaments  :lol:

[ctthespian]

Imperial Seal is worse than Vampiric Tutor, but Vampiric Tutor is definitely deserving of restriction.  In practice, how much slower is Imperial Seal than Vampiric Tutor?  No EOT action, granted, but both still are a loss of a draw.  I am not saying that it is even close to Vampiric Tutor, but it would still get restricted and deserve it.
.

What evidence do you have for this?  What deck would actually play Imperial Seal.  Vampiric doesn't even see play in all Control decks as is, and I can tell you as a Combo innovator that I would NOT play Imperial seal in Meandeath or any other combo deck I play at the moment.

I just don't see people playing with it.  Its best use is probably in Stax to find Strip Mine with Crucible.

TurboLand variants could make good use of this card with it's horn of greed drawing engine.

[Dozer]

Another thread in Community correctly points out that the new Type 1.5 is a format that Wizards can use to correct many of the ills of Type I. I completely agree. I doubt that 1.5 is any threat to Type I as it will serve as  an inlet to Type I for newer players and I think Type I and 1.5 will aid each other.
However I do not think that Wizards intend to leave Type I and concentrate on their new baby.

They might not hate Vintage. But if they tried to promote any older format, what do you think they would use: Legacy or Vintage? Legacy for sure. With Standard, Extended and Legacy, Vintage could be reduced to documentary purposes -- "that's what it was like, once".
I agree that Legacy is currently not a threat to Vintage, and yes, both formats will aid each other. That might change with one or more high-level Legacy events, though. New players looking for old formats would naturally be drawn to it and not to Vintage. Since I see two major reasons why WotC created Legacy, this might be even a natural course of events. The reasons I see are:

1. Appeasing the players, who always complained about 1.5 being the bastard stepchild of Type 1, and giving them what they want.
2. Preparing for a smoother transition of the player base after the next Extended rotation.

#2 basically requires some events to be run on a higher level than FNM. If players had no other format to use their cards older than Odyssey in apart from Vintage, a lot of players would get lost. I estimate (out of the blue) that not more than half of all Magic players joined after Odyssey. They can play Extended with their cards, but for everybody else, it's Vintage or the kitchen table -- were it not for Legacy. The smooth transition effect would be lost without some kind of support, and I don't think that only a DCI-maintained banned list ist enough. To keep these players in the game and to renew their interest, Legacy premium tournaments are the right tool for WotC. I see three ways that Vintage will be affected by that:

Either, people flock to Legacy because it has premium support and Vintage has not. Then new Vintage players will be hard to find, and the format will be the private entertainment of a group like TMD. That is the worst-case scenario for Vintage as our format, since we would be fighting an uphill battle.
Or, Legacy events spark a new interest in old cards, and the higher power of Vintage attracts those new players. Legacy and Vintage exist side by side, with none of the formats overshadowing each other. That is a positive development, giving more strength to "Eternal" formats as a whole. Eventually, this might even lead to higher recognition of Vintage and more support measures by WotC, because it would be a players' choice that old format cards are good.
Or, Legacy fails to attract players, does not get tournament support and stays a kitchen-table format. That is unlikely but possible and would basically change nothing for us, apart from making it harder to get more and steadier WotC support -- because the marquee "old card format" would have failed and thus shown that "old cards are not wanted". That is very unlikely, though.

I think until the next Extended rotation, not much is going to come from WotC in the way of developing or supporting Vintage. The impact of Legacy will be the deciding factor for the long-term development in terms of format importance.

In regards to the long-term view of the cardpool/ restricted list: Eventually, there will be so many broken/restricted cards that it will be impossible to stuff them all into a deck, and deckbuilders will have to make the choice which brokenness they want in their deck, worse than now. Or not. I have no idea what WotC is going to print, I just know that something is going to happen, one way or the other, and we will have to deal with it (and we will).

Dozer

[Ric_Flair]

Machinus:  Standard is not the biggest money maker for Wizards, in fact, it is probably just slightly more profitable than Vintage.  Limited is obviously the most lucrative format, followed by Block.  After that there is really no difference between the formats.  Standard gets a new exclusive set once every 2 years.  Yawn.  There is no money in that.

I also want to predict the collapse of constructed MODO, if this has not already happened.  The business model for Constructed MODO is a disaster and a half.  The Limited portion is fine.  

The import of this is that it points to a fundamental shift in the game--constructed formats are not what they once were.  They are really afterthoughts now.  We have to be proud of the fact that Vintage is really the only place where there is a continously growing constructed format.  What is the likelihood that constructed gets slowly phased out.  I am not saying this is going to happen, but it is not IMPOSSIBLE.  What do you guys think?