My Predictions for 2005

[Zherbus]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=8697

Enjoy!

[Razvan]

Enjoy!

Check.

Incidentally, SpecialK tried to use a Tog SB in slaver, and it actually worked really well, too. The chalice is grand, but really only works for X = 0, and I am not even sure you need it. This deck goes more than 50/50 against most kinds of combo anyhow. At least, around here (which has traditionally been a weird environment).

[Zherbus]

The chalice is grand, but really only works for X = 0, and I am not even sure you need it. This deck goes more than 50/50 against most kinds of combo anyhow. At least, around here (which has traditionally been a weird environment).

50/50 without Chalices is pretty risky in my parts. Combo has really caught on thanks to the rediscovery of Dark Ritual (:p) and when 50% of your rounds are combo, Chalices are an awfully nice addition. However, in a Trinisphere/Control meta, your assessment is correct.

[Razvan]

The thing is, I've always liked Chalice for 1. I think it's strong in most cases. If, for any reason, you side out welders, even if you leave in the brainstorms... hm... I don't need to make a list of how it kills decks, but it's safe to say that it hurts a lot.

Actually, I think it might really be worth trying up here, too. Especially with a secondary kill condition like the Tog, and the support Chalices bring (it seriously messes ANY deck at x=0 and 1). It's a bomb against Control Slaver, too.

50% of rounds being combo is insane. It's worrysome.

[dexter]

nice artictle and i see it as a very positive thing that someone in the US acctually is starting to notice the problem with ws + 3sphere.

[Royal Ass.]

Dude- restricting dark ritual would be terrible because it would kill suicide black!!

Ok, Just kidding

But I Agree with your comments on Trinisphere.

Zherbus-
  As far as ritual goes, there really hasn't been a lot of debate here about that card recienty.  Can you be more specific about which decks you think are too abusive because of ritual?  If it is just belcher, than why not advocate the restriction of G. Charlb. instead, since restricting ritual would have a huge negative impact on all other combo decks.  Unless of course you are saying that all combo decks using ritual are too broken and need to be fixed.  Are you saying that all ritual-using combo decks whould be healthier and more fair if rutual was restricted? (or is this just a vendetta against Belcher?)  Please be more specific on this, thanks.

[Zherbus]

50% of rounds being combo is insane. It's worrysome.

[Royal Ass.]

I will accept that.  Though I hate combo.  Other people might need more convincing.... (hell, some people might see that statistic at positive)

[Joblin Velder]

Zherbus - Where have you noticed the 50% combo ratio? Is that near your home in New Hampshire or at most of the events you attend? I've been playing in southeastern New England for a while and really haven't noticed an unordinary amount of combo decks.

[Zherbus]

Looking at the statistics, the most popular top 8 deck is a fight between Dark Ritual based decks and Trinisphere decks with Mana Drain decks being a distant third (with the exception of the Oath influx in November). Also, in Hadley it was close to that. There was a lot of TPS and Belcher with Doomsday making at least one appearance. My rounds were ridiculous.

[pox_reborn]

At least if dark ritual gets restricted that combo will still survive to an extent. After all suicide virus doesnt use dark ritual right?    :lol:

[Shock Wave]

Enjoy!

Dare you suggest the restriction of Trinisphere? Are you some sort of retard?

I suppose you haven't heard what the good players are doing these days. Well I'll let you in on a little secret: You play basics. Basics are the solution. All you do is play 3 lands (basics or fetches) while psychologically coercing your opponent into doing nothing for 3 turns. Then on your third you cast Oath and win. It's that simple!

BTW, regardless of how many matches were decided in the past by Trinisphere and CoW, it's only because people haven't been "adapting". Never thought of that now, did you?

[Saucemaster]

Well THAT was inevitable.  I like that CoW snuck in there somehow, too.

Ding ding ding!  Round one!

[bebe]

Basics are the solution

Richard - you obviously missed the match on the weekend where Wolfman had a CoW/Strip first turn. Your solution has flaws. Play a Mike Long deck. If that doesn't work you need to apply 'the force' .  Marc has successfully done this for years.
Jedi powers > Trini/CoW.
Mike Long > Trini/Stax

[MrZuccinniHead]

Looking at the statistics, the most popular top 8 deck is a fight between Dark Ritual based decks and Trinisphere decks with Mana Drain decks being a distant third (with the exception of the Oath influx in November). Also, in Hadley it was close to that. There was a lot of TPS and Belcher with Doomsday making at least one appearance. My rounds were ridiculous.

You kinda answered the reason why dark Ritual doesn't need restriction.  The power of Trinisphere based decks are forcing most control out of the spotlight and control needs to be there to control dark ritual.  The only reason combo is there is becasue it counters workshop decks, not becasue Dark Ritual is really powerful.  The real culprit is the Sphere.

[dexter]

@shockwave

i hope you were joking about "the solution is basic lands" omg that was THE most retarded thing i heard in a loooooong time.

try batteling staxx for example with basic lands, sure basics help we in sweden understood that last spring and since them almost every non staxx decklist from every tourney u will see run atleast 5 basics even the combo decks, but how u gonna win matches with a round 1 trinisphere, round 2 or 3 smokestack u cant counter? what use are your basic lands then?

how u gonna play your precious oath round 3 if u have to tap down in upkeep for tangle wire?

how u gonna fight 3sphere + cow + strip mine with basic lands?

serisoulsy wake up and smell the retardness of ws + 3sphere and i like i said , i really hope u were joking with that basic land statement.

[Moxlotus]

I'm sure Shockwave was joking because everybody in the community knows what his feelings are towards 3sphere.

And also this is not the place for whining about the godhands of Stax from when they go first and you have no answer (which don't happen that often).

[dicemanx]

i hope you were joking about "the solution is basic lands" omg that was THE most retarded thing i heard in a loooooong time.

I thought it was already established that a combination of 4 FoW, 5 Waste/Strip, 5 Islands/5 fetchlands, and Flux in the SB beats a first turn Trinisphere 80% of the time. So what are you talking about?

On a more serious note, I too envision the fall of Trini at some point, well ahead of Workshop. I doubt that Welder or Crucible will ever get any consideration at all though, and somehow I think Ritual will survive unless the fall of Trini will actually increase the prevalence of Tendrils/Belcher combo decks. I still think there are plenty of tools for MWS decks to combat combo, but who can say for sure.

[Moxlotus]

I too envision the fall of Trini at some point

I do too.  I think it will be in June before GenCon.  I question whether or not it will achieve GAT level dominance however before being restricted.  Also unless another good mana accelerant is printed, I don't think Dark Rit will be restricted.

[Covetous]

I will be very very interested to see what happens in the next month or so with multiple large tourneys coming up.  I have heard rumours of the complete breaking of DR in the near future, and people have been whining about 3sphere 4 2 long (sorry for the lame 'pun').  Maybe the format will be able to survive with 3spheres, and thus also with DR.  Time will tell.  Of course, restriction of DR and 3sphere/MWS (please not MWS!!) will leave mana drain decks back at the top of the format again.  Isn't it sort of nice not to have to win before your opponent gets UU open?  I was just thinking that a lot of the complaints about 3sphere come from multi-color control players...maybe it shouldn't be completely wrong for multi-color control NOT to dominate the format.

On topic, I think that a Tog SB in Intuition Slaver is beautiful--people accused meandeck titan (== intuition slaver) as being Tog anyway, so why not just admit it and use 3 togs in your SB to beat the hate?

[Triple_S]

It is my sincere feeling that the restriction of Trinisphere, without a preemptive restriction of Ritual, will usher in another combo heavy meta similar to Jar month or Combo winter.  

I actually hope they do restrict Trinisphere since I already have my deck together for the 3 months after it happens.

[Whatever Works]

Maybe Its just me, but I have never really had a problem beating decks running trinisphere... If you sideboard, Mulligan, and play basic lands it essentially eliminates the overall power of trinisphere...

I hate when people use Workshop in the same sentense as Trinisphere, because there is a billion ways to get that turn 1 3sphere... I mean seriously... If you restrict Workshop I will just play Ancient tomb...

New decks are coming up with new sollutions to adapt to Trinisphere... My current version of Control Slaver now runs 3 Ancient tomb which is amazing!!! Turn 2 Intuition and 1 less turn stalled by 3sphere... Small 1 card changes to decks or addition of cards like ancient tomb can completely improve a matchup, and I wish more people would try to discover/solve the metagame instead of complaining about it.

[Zherbus]

You kinda answered the reason why dark Ritual doesn't need restriction. The power of Trinisphere based decks are forcing most control out of the spotlight and control needs to be there to control dark ritual. The only reason combo is there is becasue it counters workshop decks, not becasue Dark Ritual is really powerful. The real culprit is the Sphere.

I think the biggest mistake in your logic trail is your failure to recognize that combo is actually forcing out control and Trinisphere is merely answering the Dark Ritual problem with a worse problem.

[onelovemachine]

I have thoughts.....

First, I didn't originally detect the sarcasm in Shockwave's post, got upset, then found it, then sighed with relief.

I will say as pretty much everyone else has that I too hope the trinisphere bites the dust.  Stax is the deck that does it to me... five three and crucibles with wastelands don't upset me because I still possess the possibility of winning through high basics and an answer.  Stax can follow with crucibles and SMOKESTACKS.  Trinisphere will, of course, keep you from doing anything while those two hit the table.  Smokestacks eat basics, nonbasics, moxes, esgs..... well maybe not esgs.... but they eat things and they keep me from playing the game.  I don't know that I detest ritualling into a belcher for 42 because its probablity of happening is not quite as high as winning off a trinisphere, but I understand the motivation for hating it.  You don't get to play the game.  The very same reason trini goes.  Personally I think that the combo will either iron itself out, or become an obvious problem and get hosed with a restriction.  But let's take one thing at a time and pop the trinisphere.

[cane]

Zherbus is so smart!
Off course I'm only saying this because I was thinking exactly the same thing.

Sphere and Rit got to go.
they make playing magic no fun for the opponent nor the player (at least not after a game or 3 (of testing)),

for MW however, I don't see the need to get rid of it, off course after the release of mirrodin it gained tremendous strength, but the only time it is good, is when you play with a very artifact heavy deck, when do people play with an artifact heavy deck? when they can abuse the deck, what makes them abuse it? WELDER
this card should be restricted long before considering MW, but I'm guessing they won't do that

as for the suggestion of using AT, indeed, they can be very nice, but taking 2 every turn can make life totals matter again (good/bad??)

someone said 4cc players complain the most
probably true, I'll give myself up as an example
but the only reason we are doing that is because 4cc still has something that sais: I have to be able to win every duel, not I have to win in a fully powered enviroment playing only against the decks that did well last tournament and hope I luck out all the good players with inventive decks
4cc is a deck that requires a lot of skill, anybody can go MW +3s go

[Smmenen]

Looking at the statistics, the most popular top 8 deck is a fight between Dark Ritual based decks and Trinisphere decks with Mana Drain decks being a distant third (with the exception of the Oath influx in November). Also, in Hadley it was close to that. There was a lot of TPS and Belcher with Doomsday making at least one appearance. My rounds were ridiculous.

To be fair Dark Rituals aren't really putting up that many top 8 appearances.

[MrZuccinniHead]

You kinda answered the reason why dark Ritual doesn't need restriction. The power of Trinisphere based decks are forcing most control out of the spotlight and control needs to be there to control dark ritual. The only reason combo is there is becasue it counters workshop decks, not becasue Dark Ritual is really powerful. The real culprit is the Sphere.

I think the biggest mistake in your logic trail is your failure to recognize that combo is actually forcing out control and Trinisphere is merely answering the Dark Ritual problem with a worse problem.

So you are saying that this is actually the reverse of what I said?  Combo and dark ritual have always been there and control players have been counter a draw 7 or a dark rit or whatever.  When trinisphere came around people griped, but it did not really overpower until coupled with Crucible of Worlds.  The combonation of these two cards are the things keeping control out of the picture and keeping combo in to race the aggro.  I could see why you are saying combo is too prevailent in top 8s but i think you would agree that Trinisphere should go first and we'll see if combo subsides with the reintroduction of more control decks.

Restrict the sphere first, THEN see if Dark Ritual needs the axe, but not both at once.

[Smmenen]

You kinda answered the reason why dark Ritual doesn't need restriction. The power of Trinisphere based decks are forcing most control out of the spotlight and control needs to be there to control dark ritual. The only reason combo is there is becasue it counters workshop decks, not becasue Dark Ritual is really powerful. The real culprit is the Sphere.

I think the biggest mistake in your logic trail is your failure to recognize that combo is actually forcing out control and Trinisphere is merely answering the Dark Ritual problem with a worse problem.

I'm just thinking out loud here - but is there anything inherently wrong with a T1 format without much control?  We have lots of T1 metagames without much aggro, how is not having Control inherently worse?  BTW< Control is VERY strong right now, imo and will continue to be.   Mana Drains are putting up MAD top 8 numbers and with several uber powerful decks.

I think its pretty clear that Slaver and Oath are two of the top decks, if not THE top decks to beat.

[Zherbus]

I'm just thinking out loud here - but is there anything inherently wrong with a T1 format without much control? We have lots of T1 metagames without much aggro, how is not having Control inherently worse?

The difference between games that take 5 minutes and games that can often go to time. Even you can see what that does to the formats PR. Instead of argueing, I'll just save ourselves an ugly cycle and point you to the stuff I've mentioned in the 3 articles I wrote and I'll be sure to reread everything you've said in your writings and in the end we'll still be on the same sides of the fence we are now.

Restrict the sphere first, THEN see if Dark Ritual needs the axe, but not both at once.

That's fair, I suppose. I just sort of think it's obvious.

...though control that doesnt worry about Trinisphere may be able to devote all it has to making Ritual-based decks less potent.

[Smmenen]

I'm just thinking out loud here - but is there anything inherently wrong with a T1 format without much control? We have lots of T1 metagames without much aggro, how is not having Control inherently worse?

The difference between games that take 5 minutes and games that can often go to time. Even you can see what that does to the formats PR. Instead of argueing, I'll just save ourselves an ugly cycle and point you to the stuff I've mentioned in the 3 articles I wrote and I'll be sure to reread everything you've said in your writings and in the end we'll still be on the same sides of the fence we are now.
.

LOL at the last Columbus Proxy event EVERYONE went to time.  The Affinity and Stax match went to time and was a draw.