Why I Won't be Playing Mono Blue This Year at Gencon

[Smmenen]

I hear alot of murmurs and whispers about mono blue. 

Last year I had a great time playing mono blue.  Besides the fact that it nailed Fish, Workshops and 4CC to the wall, the best part about playing mono blue was the sheer audacity of it - the sheer surprise.  No One suspected that mono blue could perform.  The use of Chalices is what made me consider the deck, but ironically, I ended up not using them in my final list.  However,  I suggested their use post-gencon to fight Welders and Control Slaver.

What about mono blue today? 

Mono Blue with cards like Chalice, Kegs, Back to Basics, and Energy Flux along with full contingent of Wastelands could prove quite powerful.   It isn't as pretty as it was last year.  The two biggest threats in the metagame are Aether Vial in Fish to get around Back to Basics and the strategic inferiority to Oath of Druids.  If that was all I had to deal with, I would definatley be playing Mono Blue.  Mono Blue with back to basics and Kegs should not be terribly concerned with Fish.  Morphling comes down and cleans up.   Back to Basics is nothing less than spectacular agianst Workshops - esp now that Trinisphere is restricted.  Aggro- workshop decks seem to be performing worse than stax - which is a huge boon for monoblue. 

Mono blue is also powerful in that if you run 15+ counterspells, very little is going to break through your counter-net. 

The problem, quite frankly, is that I beleive Goblin Welder will once again triumph in this year's Vintage Champs. I firmly believe that the finals will involve at least one Goblin Welder deck, if not two.

Goblin Welder is THE faultline in the vintage metagame.  It is central, omnipresent, and it demarcates where each archetype that runs Welder parts ground.  In conjunction with Force of Will, it is abusable by Control decks to mess with Workshop players.  It is abusable by Workshop players to evade countermagic (provided that the Workshop player has sufficient artifacts to make Welder abusable or other synergies like Uba Mask and Bazaar).  If not for Goblin Welder, I would play mono blue once more. Control Slaver put up three persons in the Chicago top 8 with lists that were clearly metagamed against Gifts - and they lost to Workshops as a result. The stax players have become stronger and more knowledgable. This is the first time in recent memory when Stax is actually respected as a deck played by skilled pilots.

Last year, there were 6 decks in the top 8 of the Vintage Champs that ran Goblin Welder. There were six in the top 8 of SCG Chicago running the little monster. I don't see anything stopping the Welder decks from dominating this Vintage Championship. I have called for Welder's restriction before based upon my belief that in large tournaments, Welder tends to predominate.

Here is the problem.  Mono blue can't run narrow cards.  No maindeck solution aside from Keg or Chalice is versatile enough to justify maindeck slot and be a good answer to Welder.  so it isn't as simple as saying, just put in card X.  In order to beat Welder on the board, the only chance the mono blue player has is to Keg it, and barring that, to race their mana with your Morphling.  In other words, as soon as they get to 7 mana, you lose becuase they can just hardcast the Angel or whatever and then when you counter it, they just weld it back. 

Mono Blue is a powerful deck despite what people claim - there was a reason I was the only X-0 in the Swiss.  However, what began last year seems to be coming full circle.  Goblin Welder is cranky and he's getting greedy.  Is there any deck in Vintage that has strategic superiority, or at least a nice margin of advantage over both Control Slaver and Stax?  I'm amiss for what it might be - but find it, and you might be the next Vintage Champion. 

[Wudil]

In other words, as soon as they get to 7 mana, you lose

I can admit that there were/are many welders in all the top8 we've seen in Vintage Champ and Chicago but this isn't equal to the lost for Mono Blue.

You're telling us that the deck can't run narrow cards. This is mostly true and this is where Vedalken Shackles can shine.

This cards has been made for Mono Blue. It lets you controle your worse fears that could be resolved (the fact that it's an artifact isn't an issue since your best answer which can be useful in that matchup is also an artifact and I don't see many threats other than creatures that can harm you). A welder can be stolen so easily in order to controle the controle Slaver or Stax board with only 1 island, so with the BIG counter wall you can have in such a deck like Mono blue and some shackles on the board, in hand or ready to be tinkered (i.e), you can easily let pass what isn't revelant for your deck and even make use of these permanents to destroy opponent strategy and board with that, don't you think so?

Just my 2cts

Ps: This cards is also good in many matchups like Fish (since they don't even run null rods nowadays), any aggro that could annoy you etc etc...
Ps: Ride this deck in the Top8 again and show us how you're the great magic "elder" we already know 

[NastyNate]

Steve's gonna play Turbo Lich and Pwn you All!

[mikee]

Haha, I don't know if what you are playing is public, but I'll assume it's not.

And with that, I will add that I am excited to see what you do play, and in consequence, read your thoughts as to why you played that particular deck.

[outta_names]

Old-school style U/R Fish could fare well. The most difficult part of building the deck would be the sideboard, but Pithing Needle shores up all the 'activated-abilities' matchups
(Oath, Dragon, others)

[heiner]

Shakles < old man. Shakles is narrow and cant be played MD. And even SBing shakles/old man vs slaver is debatable.

Old-school style U/R Fish could fare well. The most difficult part of building the deck would be the sideboard, but Pithing Needle shores up all the 'activated-abilities' matchups
(Oath, Dragon, others)

Both Oath and Dragon are triggered abilites. U can shut down the Bazaar though. Needle does nothing vs oath.dec

[alban]

why not play a hate-type sort of U/W fish? With javelineers, swords and seals of cleansing, you'd have at least a chance to beat welder.dec. Seal of cleansing is becoming more and more attractive to me, with a reason 

[Bulls on Parade]

Sorry if this is really a piss-poor suggestion, but I've been out of the loop for a while...

Is Phyrexian Furnace too narrow to see play in Mono-U? I realize that coupled with Chalice and Keg it's an awful lot of relatively (to the rest of the deck's business spells) narrow, non-blue cards, but it seems like it's a powerhouse against a lot of decks right now, and at the worst it is a 2cc cantrip that might still swing the game a lot by weakening an opposing Will.

Obviously Turn 1 you'd rather leave counter mana open, or maybe be laying a Chalice for 1, which does maximize on Furnace's disadvantage that while not a weak card in the mid/late game, it's inherently less powerful because it will likely take several more turns to reach the spells you want to remove from the grave as you mill through fetches and brainstorms, unless you go for the 1 shot activation right off the bat.

Still, I'd test it were I considering Mono-U, but then again, I'm sure you have.

[Old Dan of the Sea]

Is "Psionic Blast" a worthy inclusion ?

Old Dan

[bedafile]

all signs point to Cron Stacks with a few Welders.

[Nehptis]

I agree that Welder is problematic and should be numero uno on the Watch List.  It simply breaks the Cost / Effect rules like Tinker does and more-so negates the effectiveness of Counters.  Just in case the DCI is reading, I think that Welder is not "fun".

However, if Welder is the only reason to not play Monu U then why not maindeck Needles over Kegs?  They are rarely a dead card.  Against Workshop / Stax / Slaver decks you target the Welder.  Against Fish you have multiple targets.  And worst case against Combo you can target Deltas.

I also predict a Welder heavy Top 8 at Gencon.

[Dante]

Sorry if this is really a piss-poor suggestion, but I've been out of the loop for a while...

Is Phyrexian Furnace too narrow to see play in Mono-U? I realize that coupled with Chalice and Keg it's an awful lot of relatively (to the rest of the deck's business spells) narrow, non-blue cards, but it seems like it's a powerhouse against a lot of decks right now, and at the worst it is a 2cc cantrip that might still swing the game a lot by weakening an opposing Will.

Obviously Turn 1 you'd rather leave counter mana open, or maybe be laying a Chalice for 1, which does maximize on Furnace's disadvantage that while not a weak card in the mid/late game, it's inherently less powerful because it will likely take several more turns to reach the spells you want to remove from the grave as you mill through fetches and brainstorms, unless you go for the 1 shot activation right off the bat.

Still, I'd test it were I considering Mono-U, but then again, I'm sure you have.

I played CS at SCG Chicago.  3 different games I had my opponents have 2 Furnaces in play by turn 2.  Neither game did any of that bother me and I won those games handily.  It's just really not as strong in practice as you think it should be..

[Smmenen]

Sorry if this is really a piss-poor suggestion, but I've been out of the loop for a while...

Is Phyrexian Furnace too narrow to see play in Mono-U? I realize that coupled with Chalice and Keg it's an awful lot of relatively (to the rest of the deck's business spells) narrow, non-blue cards, but it seems like it's a powerhouse against a lot of decks right now, and at the worst it is a 2cc cantrip that might still swing the game a lot by weakening an opposing Will.

Obviously Turn 1 you'd rather leave counter mana open, or maybe be laying a Chalice for 1, which does maximize on Furnace's disadvantage that while not a weak card in the mid/late game, it's inherently less powerful because it will likely take several more turns to reach the spells you want to remove from the grave as you mill through fetches and brainstorms, unless you go for the 1 shot activation right off the bat.

Still, I'd test it were I considering Mono-U, but then again, I'm sure you have.

I played CS at SCG Chicago.  3 different games I had my opponents have 2 Furnaces in play by turn 2.  Neither game did any of that bother me and I won those games handily.  It's just really not as strong in practice as you think it should be..

This is really my fear.

I don't think people realize how strong Control Slaver is right now.

People keep going on and on and on about Gifts,  but let's face it.  The strong players are going to play Control Slaver.  Control Slaver is highly flexible and there were THREE Control Slavers in the Chicago top 8. 

Mono blue simply cannot reliably beat Control Slaver.

They go:

Turn one Volc, Welder, go.

Mono blue's long term game is right there in peril.  If the control slaver player can counter a single mox, Powder Keg is then completely worthless. 

The problem is also this:

Mono blue goes first:

Mox, Land. go

Slaver:

Volc, Welder.

Mono Blue:
Mana Lealk.

Control Slaver: FOW

If mono blue doesn't have another pitch spell right there, what can you do?  On the draw, there is no way to stop that Welder. 

And more importantly, Control Slaver may not even care about protecting that first welder, since there are more where that came from.

I am struggling to find a deck that can beat both Control Slaver AND Stax.  But mostly, I"m worried about Control Slaver.  Decks that beat Stax, can't seem to handle Control Slaver and vice versa.   I would seriously entertain the notion of playing control slaver except that I don't think I could beat Rich Shay in a mirror match with it.  I simply don't have that level of expertise to fight people who have been dedicated control slaver players for so long.

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

[Whatever Works]

I wouldnt be suprised at all to see steve run URphid with maindecked lava darts and just updating a few cards that are no longer all that viable from the list ben kowal won waterbury with a few years ago (add collosus etc.)

Urphid can beat 5c stax... wrecks welder stax... and with fire/ice + lava dart + bloodmoon fish would seem easy...

You can take this seriously or as a joke... But, then again... If I told you smennen was going to play mono blue last year you probably would of laughed too.

What I find interesting is the most similar relationship to the "circle" of  Control > Combo > Aggro > Control

Accept in the form of... Fish > Stax (depends sooo much on version) > Gifts > Fish... None of the titles really apply but having something similar to any kind of pattern is facinating.

My prediction is that there will be 2 Control Slavers in top 8... 1 Combo will slide in... 2 Gifts decks (1 meandeck... 1 rogue).... 1 Fish (1 always pulls through)... 2 Stax decks.. Probably 1 rogue deck will slide into 1 of my predicted spots... or perhaps oath might catch people off guard.

Kyle L.

[warble]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going to be dominant at Gencon. What can be done about it?

Why does Fish shine at major tournaments?  Yes, you have to worry about the mirror match with fish, but at least you don't have to play Rich Shay in that mirror.  And now I shall be scorned forever for advocating playing less power at GenCon than you own.

But wouldn't you be doing that if you played monoblue as well?

[Smmenen]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going to be dominant at Gencon. What can be done about it?

Why does Fish shine at major tournaments?  Yes, you have to worry about the mirror match with fish, but at least you don't have to play Rich Shay in that mirror.  And now I shall be scorned forever for advocating playing less power at GenCon then you own.

Fish one of those deck I referred to my in prior post.  You can beat Control Slaver, but then you lose to Workshops and vice versa.  Fish can beat Control Slaver, but loses to traditional Stax and workshop aggro.  Can Fish really win in a tournament where potentially half of the top 8 will be Workshops? 

[Meddling Mike]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

This time last year you were predicting that fish would be dominant @ Gencon Steve, I saw how that one panned out. What are you basing this prediction on? Control Slaver is easily one of the hardest decks to build without proxies (requiring a set of power-twister, a set of drains, a library as well as a number of other relatively expensive cards) and I think this will have an adverse effect on the number that will show up at Gencon. Gencon is also flooded with players who don't really keep up with the evolving type I scene and would not be aware of decks like control slaver, this usually leads to a disproportionately large amount of keeper variants. The lack of proxies and a disproportionately high number of casual players makes the Gencon metagame very unpredictable. Will Control Slaver be present? Of course. Will it be dominant? I have serious doubts that this will be the case.

Can Fish really win in a tournament where potentially half of the top 8 will be Workshops? 

If your prediction about Control Slaver is correct do you really think workshop decks will be able to navigate the swiss to take half the t8 slots? Perhaps you've found this not to be the case, but in my experience with workshop, Control Slaver is a nearly unwinnable matchup if my opponent is even mildly competent.

[Nehptis]

Mono blue simply cannot reliably beat Control Slaver.
They go:
Turn one Volc, Welder, go.
Mono blue's long term game is right there in peril.  If the control slaver player can counter a single mox, Powder Keg is then completely worthless. 
The problem is also this:
Mono blue goes first:
Mox, Land. go
Slaver:
Volc, Welder.
Mono Blue:
Mana Lealk.
Control Slaver: FOW
If mono blue doesn't have another pitch spell right there, what can you do?  On the draw, there is no way to stop that Welder. 
And more importantly, Control Slaver may not even care about protecting that first welder, since there are more where that came from.

So then again why not consider the Needle?  In both of your examples if the MB player follows up any of those turns with a Needle then the Welder is kept in check.  In addition, unlike the Keg answer where you have to worry about a second Welder coming on-line or the current Welder welding out your Keg before it gets a counter, the Needle stops the current and future Welders in their trax.

As an aside, I MD 3 Needles in a TPS deck at a recent tourney expecting a heavy CS meta.  The CS matches were a breeze when I resolved the Needle.  As soon as it hits, the CS player changes their entire plan into searching for the MD bounce spell.  By then Mono Blue Should easily have the card advantage and Counter back-up it needs to lock up the match.

[Lou]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

This time last year you were predicting that fish would be dominant @ Gencon Steve, I saw how that one panned out. What are you basing this prediction on? Control Slaver is easily one of the hardest decks to build without proxies (requiring a set of power-twister, a set of drains, a library as well as a number of other relatively expensive cards) and I think this will have an adverse effect on the number that will show up at Gencon worlds. Gencon Worlds is also flooded with players who don't really keep up with the evolving type I scene and would not be aware of decks like control slaver, this usually leads to a disproportionately large amount of keeper variants. The lack of proxies and a disproportionately high number of casual players makes the Gencon metagame very unpredictable. Will Control Slaver be present? Of course. Will it be dominant? I have serious doubts that this will be the case.

I might be going out on a limb here, but let me play devil's advocate and go a little deeper.  Steve is obviously worried about CS, for good reason.  But what does a post like this accomplish?  He is not going to be playing Mono Blue, that is obvious.  If everyone is scared shitless about CS, and they pack the hate for it, then Steve, or anyone else for that matter, won't have to play against CS in the later rounds at the top tables because it has been hated out, in theory.  Is this thread a ploy to do just that?  Call me cynical, but maybe it is.  Never underestimate the masses need to comform and jump on the lets restrict Goblin Welder, CS is out of control wagon.

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

This time last year you were predicting that fish would be dominant @ Gencon Steve, I saw how that one panned out. What are you basing this prediction on? Control Slaver is easily one of the hardest decks to build without proxies (requiring a set of power-twister, a set of drains, a library as well as a number of other relatively expensive cards) and I think this will have an adverse effect on the number that will show up at Gencon. Gencon is also flooded with players who don't really keep up with the evolving type I scene and would not be aware of decks like control slaver, this usually leads to a disproportionately large amount of keeper variants. The lack of proxies and a disproportionately high number of casual players makes the Gencon metagame very unpredictable. Will Control Slaver be present? Of course. Will it be dominant? I have serious doubts that this will be the case.

Can Fish really win in a tournament where potentially half of the top 8 will be Workshops? 

If your prediction about Control Slaver is correct do you really think workshop decks will be able to navigate the swiss to take half the t8 slots? Perhaps you've found this not to be the case, but in my experience with workshop, Control Slaver is a nearly unwinnable matchup if my opponent is even mildly competent.

1) Even if only 5 competent CS players are there, those are the people you should be aiming to beat, not the crappy multicolor control decks that will be present. In this sense, I think Smmenen is right. Play a deck that will win rounds 4-8, not 1-4. And if you think about it, the good players will likely play mana drain decks, especially slaver. I don't expect to see much Stax, but I do expect to see lots of shop aggro. Stax has many restrictions to it (full power, shops, AND shit like chains, bazaar, ITEOC, etc.) where WS aggro only really needs power and shops. You need to go into GenCon prepared to beat control slaver, and to a lesser extent, stax.

2) CS may have a good macthup vs. Workshop aggro, but this is certainly not the case for stax. I think Roland is something like 5-0 in matches vs. CS. CS may have had an advantage over traditional trinistax, but stax lists are constantly evolving.

-Bob

[PipOC]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

Combo, and more specifically TPS.  Say what you will about it's inconsistencies and flaws, but the bottom line is that it is very strong against control slaver.  It can easily pack enough hate to beat down stax as well.

[Jacob Orlove]

Gencon is also flooded with players who don't really keep up with the evolving type I scene and would not be aware of decks like control slaver, this usually leads to a disproportionately large amount of keeper variants.

That may have been true last year, but by now even the more casual players are mostly familiar with Control Slaver. Of course, that's not particularly relevant, since everyone can beat those players (as has already been mentioned). It's pretty clear though that many, if not most, of the top players attending will be bringing Control Slaver, and those are the decks people need to beat to actually win this thing.

Also, let's not forget that Control Slaver WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP last year. That's hardly insignificant, especially considering some of the metagame parallels that we can see between then and now.

[Meddling Mike]

It's pretty clear though that many, if not most, of the top players attending will be bringing Control Slaver, and those are the decks people need to beat to actually win this thing.

Also, let's not forget that Control Slaver WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP last year. That's hardly insignificant, especially considering some of the metagame parallels that we can see between then and now.

I'm not convinced that most of the top players will be bringing control slaver and have yet to see evidence to suggest otherwise.

Control Slaver did win last year, but I don't think the situations are similar, nor do I see ample paralells in the metagame. Last year the only control slaver players I recall seeing at Gencon were myself and Windfall. I took an active interest in finding out how many other Control Slaver players were in the type I world championship and the only other person I saw playing CS was Windfall. Your teammate listed Control Slaver as "Tier 2" under the heading of a mana drain/goblin welder based deck using mindslaver and sundering titan in his article "A Player's Guide to Type 1". Now CS is more widely recognized, people are better prepared to play against it, it's no longer the "dark horse" it was last year.

[MuzzonoAmi]

But this time last year, we were seeing significant ammounts of Fish, which is probably the most significant parallel, especially for a zero proxy event. The meta has been rapidly evolving and expanding for well over a year. Because of that, I would expect a higher turnout than usual, and since the format has grown more popular and competitive, I would expect less crappy multicolor control, and more Fish variants, especialy U/G and U/R, since those have been the most talked about forms (despite the fact that U/W seems to be the strongest variant in testing).  Any of these variants will cause problems for CS and Stax, because there are bound to be multiple compotent Fish players. This will depress the "expected" number of these decks in the later rounds, and increase the number and importance of Fish mirrors.

If I had to pick a deck right now, I'd play U/W Fish with some SB tech for the mirror.

[cssamerican]

Why not play Dragon? None of the Mana Drain decks are playing Wastelands, and everyone is focused on Welder removal more than they are graveyard removal. Plus Xantids are good versus Drains and Verdants are good versus Stax; therefore, you have a very strong and unique form of hate versus both decks. A Dragon deck placed in the Top 8 in the Chicago SCG Tournament; however, no one is talking about how a sub-optimal Dragon deck placed in the Top 8 at a large prominant tournament. (Just so no one is offended, I said the deck was sub-optimal because many of the cards ran in it have been tried and rejected by the vast majority of Dragon players.)

[Tristal]

If you as a mono-Blue player are really worried about Welders, take a page out from 1998 and run Powder Kegs, or even Masticore.  They may be 'outdated', but they will shore up those aggro matchups real fast.  FCG and Vial Fish -really- do not want to see Mana Drain->Masticore.

[Revvik]

CS Player on the play:
Volcanic Island, Mox, Goblin Welder.
You: Island, Mox, Keg

CS Player: Land, Thirst for Knowledge.  That may well be game if you can't counter it, and because you couldn't Force the Welder AND you tapped down for Powder Keg, it's unlikely that you'll prevent that Thirst from resolving.  If that puts a 'Bus or an Angel in the yard, you're pretty well doomed.

Apparently, situations like this are a concern to a MonoBleu player, and opening plays like that one aren't too uncommon for Control Slaver.
However, let's look at your options at this point.

- KEG THE MOX.  It's kind of a waste, and he could recover from it, but it's better than wasting two counterspells on a single Goblin Welder.
- Leave mana open for Mana Leak, giving you time to set up and handle the Welder.  For instance, Leaking the Thirst usually stops it.

Control Slaver is not a cakewalk by any means for MonoBlue, but it's not impossible if you know your timings and the strong plays against them.
For Chalice builds: If Goblin Welder isn't their opening play, resolve Chalice of the Void for one.  You don't care about Tinker, you run a ton of counterspells.  Unless you're on the play - Chalice for zero effectively shuts down Goblin Welder and Tinker.
If you're not running Chalice of the Void, you have enough open slots for more than 2 Kegs and possibly even that Vedalken Shackles.

I think the best option so far is U/RPhidian.  Blood Moon does practically the work of Back to Basics (and has one amazing foil) and allows for decent maindeck removal and nifty sideboard potential.

[Kowal]

The modern monoblue on control slaver matchup is unwinnable if the control slaver player knows what they're doing.  Rich Shay and I have tested this matchup pretty much 15+ times per week since I met the guy, and I can inform you with certainty that if your plan is anything different from "don't get paired up with control slaver" then you're in bad shape.

[Vegeta2711]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it?

Play FCG. Or Choke. Both are good choices.

[onelovemachine]

I agree that mono blue probably is not the correct choice.  Aside from that:

Just in case the DCI is reading, I think that Welder is not "fun". 

Wins.

and.....

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

Weren't you just talking about how some people would predictably play cs and you would therefore play something to beat it?  I see CS being good... not necessarily dominant.  Of course, the good players playing it will have something to do with that as well.