Why I Won't be Playing Mono Blue This Year at Gencon

[Null Rob]

I think I completely agree with Kyle.  URphid has always given me good results around here (RI/Mass/Ct) because it has all the tools to beat Fish, Slaver, and anything with Workshops.  The combination of Fire/Ice, reusable draw, more counterspells, and (if you believe the metagame warrants running it) Gorilla Shaman, all contribute to give URphid the definite edge in this matchup.

[hazard]

I have little experience here, but does Juntu Stakes ever have any play vs. Welders or is it even worth a SB slot?

[vroman]

I have little experience here, but does Juntu Stakes ever have any play vs. Welders or is it even worth a SB slot?

pithing needle is half the cost for the same effect, plus much more versaility against other threats.
juntu stakes is terrrible bc if you play it while welder is untapped, they will just weld out the juntu as their first task. if you play it after welder is tapped, then theyve already welded something, and a single welder activation can win the game.

[Komatteru]

I have little experience here, but does Juntu Stakes ever have any play vs. Welders or is it even worth a SB slot?

::Inside Joke:: Juntu stakes was good until it cost $3.

Also, Pithing Needle is the hotness.  Don't bother with other stuff that isn't going to work nearly as well.

[Windfall]

Hahahahaha I was thinking the same thing when I saw Juntu Stakes.  Good times JD.

But really, people, come on.  Welder is not fun?  First you bitch about Trinisphere being unfun, and I can almost understand that.  But Welder now?  Seriously, will everyone continue to bitch until the only playable deck is the deck he/she likes?  I bet that would be a great format.  I played in the era of Keeper v Mono Black and it wasn't very fun.

The trick is to find that one deck that doesn't lose to Slaver or Stax, and that's a tough call right there.  On the other hand, it gets harder.  Not only do we have to beat those two decks, but we have to be resistant to creatures beating us down and we also cannot randomly lose to Tendrils or Reanimated Dragons.

Slaver has more work to do against Stax than before.  Without Green or White cards, it's hard to answer all of the Enchantments that Stax plays that say "Fuck Blue."

[cosineme]

People suggesting fish to steve are being ridiculous. Steve would never (most likely) play anything that is less than fully powered...

[Roxas]

Since I am not Steve, take this with a grain of salt, but I'm pretty sure that if he came to the conclusion that an underpowered deck like Fish was the best deck, he would play it. 

[Whatever Works]

first off who cares what steve is playing... 2nd... Fish was best deck entering gencon last year and he didnt play it...

[Revvik]

Of course he didn't play fish.  Why play the best deck when you can play the deck that BEATS the best deck, and can realistically still win against the field?
If you haven't noticed, he's having trouble finding a deck to fill the role of "this deck beats the two current 'best decks'."  And i'm almost certain that if he found out R/G beat Stax and CS consistently plus had some game against other decks, he would play it.  It'd be a dark day, but he'd play it 

[NicolaeAlmighty]

The answer is so obvious! With the lack of combo in the field, there is plenty of room for one of the best CS/ Workshop hosers to return- good ol' R/G Beats! With 4 Bolt, 4 Fire/Ice, 3 Null Rod/ Root Maze (I prefer Rod), Red Blast, SB Ground Seal/ Tormod's Crypt- you've got the CS matchup handled. With Artifact Mutation, Naturalize, SB Rack and Ruin you've got Workshop in check. Quick beats, utility creatures (Grim Lavamancer/ Gorilla Shaman), and the perfect blend of aggressive irritation that stands up to any Fish deck in the field, it should prove to be quite the deck! Maybe it's time for the Kird to reign once more  :lol:

[Methuselahn]

Who wants to put bets down?  I bet Steve will play Control Slaver because it has the 2 most powerful non-restricted cards currently, Welder and Force.

[prosbloom225]

If kirdape.dec makes a comeback, then combo will pick up right there.  Tps is hardly playable now, but if the control decks wane, maybe it could be an option.  Gifts is solid, but easily hated, and dragon is just dragon.  My prediction is that r/g beats comes back, but at the same time combo does also.

[virtual]

My prediction is that r/g beats comes back

R/G beatz gets to "come back"?  I wasn't even aware it when it was here. 

Anyways, I think a good build of oath could have a shot.  People have stopped packing their hate.  Oath has easy access to ground seal, which is fantastic welder hate, and good gifts hate. 

Kinda wish I was goin now, ah well.
-Virtual

[Dr. Sylvan]

R/G won't do well because Chalice destroys it. Not "hurts", not "slightly impedes"---destroys.

I played Burninator last year in both Friday and the main event, and Chalice was much less common then, but it still cost me the Top 8 of Friday, and was involved in one of my match losses during the Championship, IIRC. Darksteel Colossus was also much more rare last year, and it walked all over me, because aggro/burn has no answer to that, and racing isn't as easy as you think. Between those two cards, I wouldn't play Burninator or R/G again, and I love to play aggro.

There will be aggro there, though; I'm just saying that it won't be in the Top 8. Last year, I faced three aggro matchups in a row, the third (UGmad) knocking me out of T8 contention after a first-round Colossus/Chalice loss to TMD's own Lost in Admiration. GenCon will always have more aggro because of being sanctioned, so you should plan for it. But if you have enough Chalices, I wouldn't be overly concerned.

ObvDisclaimer: I'm not going, so I have no stake in the meta at all.

[prosbloom225]

Thats true chalice for 2 = gg.  Still though game 1 without chalices is cake for r/g.  Game 2 they just have to hope chalice never gets found.

[Revvik]

Or they use their Gorilla Shamans, Rack & Ruins, Naturalizes, or Artifact Mutations.  Some builds can even support Oxidize.  Now, I'm not saying board in every last one of these - but that's a solid mix of artifact destroyers at varied CCs.

Nick's anti-Oath tech can even be used against some builds of Stax - Reverent Silence 
I honestly don't think R/G is as destroyed by Chalice as you think, and could become an answer.  There is unfortunately always the issue of the fully powered deck just outpacing it...

Chalice Oath could do well, but if there's plenty of Fish aggro, then Oath will always be at the back of their minds.

[Smmenen]

Let's break silence and face the facts, Control Slaver is going ot be dominant at Gencon.  What can be done about it? 

This time last year you were predicting that fish would be dominant @ Gencon Steve, I saw how that one panned out. What are you basing this prediction on?

That's not quite accurate.  I said that Fish would predominate, but I never said it would dominate.  The only prediction I gave in that regard was that the best Fish players would be near the top tables - which they were.   Fish was clearly, by any measure, the best deck going into the tournament in that it put 3 people in the top six of the most temporally proximate tourament: SCG VA I a month earlier.  

What happened to Fish was quite obvious.  Recall that Eric Miller had just showed the world that Workshop Aggro could win by taking his Man Show UNDEFEATED IN GAMES in the Swiss of SCG VA I the month before only to lose in the finals to Mike Panas.  Fish crumpled to Workshop aggro so bad and only Eric knew it before SCG VA. 

My predictions this time are solely based on the most proximate large tournament.  But your attempt to say that my so called "predictions" from last year didn't pan out and therefore that my predictions here are faulty doesn't work for several reasons.  First of all, my predictions were not of what would perform, but what the metagame would look like.  And I was dead on.  BDM said I was "Prescient" in my metagame prediction...  Second, SCG Chicago is as close as you can basically get to Gencon geographically.  There will be a huge player overlap.  Third, SCG Chicago was only three weeks before Gencon - which in the lifecyle of Type One isn't even a moment unless there is an intervening set or restriction.  Fourth, Control Slaver is not like Fish or 4Cc last year - it's not something that can get easily hated out.  

Control Slaver is easily one of the hardest decks to build without proxies (requiring a set of power-twister, a set of drains, a library as well as a number of other relatively expensive cards) and I think this will have an adverse effect on the number that will show up at Gencon.

This is funny.  Contrary to your view, Control Slaver is actually tied with gifts for the easiest deck to put together from SCG chicago top 8.  And any player worth their salt thinking about playing in Gencon is quite obviously going to at least look at the SCG Chicago top 8 for an idea of what to play and what to face.  Dragon and the Workshop decks require cards more expensive than Mana Drain to build them.  And the number of people who can build Uba Stax without borrowing cards in the world probably numbers less than one hundred (I am one of them).  

Gencon is also flooded with players who don't really keep up with the evolving type I scene and would not be aware of decks like control slaver, this usually leads to a disproportionately large amount of keeper variants. The lack of proxies and a disproportionately high number of casual players makes the Gencon metagame very unpredictable. Will Control Slaver be present? Of course. Will it be dominant? I have serious doubts that this will be the case.

Oh team reflection, how you do not know thy own impact!  Control Slaver is not some "Unknown factor."  Control Slaver is not the missing element or a hidden deck.  Last year's winner was a netdeck.  Control Slaver is the most well known control deck in Vintage, period.   Even assuming for the moment that the Gencon players don't know anything about vintage aside from Gencon, IT WON Gencon last year - which means that they will at least have some passing knowledge of what it is.  Putting aside my incredulity at the apparant ignorance about the popularity of control slaver on the part of team reflection, let's look at the facts:  SCG CHicago in May had over 20 Control Slavers making in the most popular deck in the tournament by a wide margin.  second, SCG chicago last month had 14 control slavers, making it the most popular drain deck by a few.  The NE is perceived by people like me to be a hornets nest of Control slaver players.  I hear stories of tournaments where there are like 8 Control Slaver players and like 6 per top 8.  Remember the Waterbury in January where Meandeck Tendrils made top 4?  There were like 8 Control Slavers in the top 16.  

Control Slaver is possibly the most well known Vintage deck.  It is not an unknown quantity.  Do not pretend or suggest that it is.  

Can Fish really win in a tournament where potentially half of the top 8 will be Workshops? 

If your prediction about Control Slaver is correct do you really think workshop decks will be able to navigate the swiss to take half the t8 slots? Perhaps you've found this not to be the case, but in my experience with workshop, Control Slaver is a nearly unwinnable matchup if my opponent is even mildly competent.

I would normally have agreed with you in regards to normal Stax variants.  But I know that Kevin's Syracuse list was quite capable of beating Control Slaver, and I know for a fact that one small play difference and instead of drawing against Rich Shay, Roland Chang would have beaten Rich at Origins.  Also, one huge difference is that the Stax players of today are basically top flight players.  The stereotype of Workshop players in Vintage - esp, in the northeast - is that they are subpar players.  This is not the case.  A new breed of Stax players has emerged in the last year as a set of players who have produced great tech, constantly evolving decks and consistent results.  

My point though, is that I can't find a deck that can beat both Control Slaver AND the Stax decks.  I can beat one, but I seem to have to give up the other match.   I'm not saying that Control Slaver will "dominate" - but do you think that there will be any less than two in the top 8?  Seriously?  Control Slaver will have a much easier time, I agree, tuning itself to beat Stax than Stax will to beat control Slaver.  Hence why I fear control Slaver more. 

[prosbloom225]

Lol, the only decks that can beat both stax and cs just happen to be stax and cs. 

[forests failed you]

I bet Steve plays Chalice Oath.

[prosbloom225]

If I didn't just drop 200 into stax, I would be playing oath.  Combo control oath is one of the strongest decks out there.  It's able to do just so many things.  I prefer the version with black for tutoring and tinker/dsc for backup.

[Meddling Mike]

That's not quite accurate.  I said that Fish would predominate, but I never said it would dominate.

dom·i·nate  To control, govern, or rule by superior authority or power
pre·dom·i·nate  To dominate or prevail over.

How could I possibly have confused the two.

My predictions this time are solely based on the most proximate large tournament.  But your attempt to say that my so called "predictions" from last year didn't pan out and therefore that my predictions here are faulty doesn't work for several reasons.  First of all, my predictions were not of what would perform, but what the metagame would look like.  And I was dead on.  BDM said I was "Prescient" in my metagame prediction...  Second, SCG Chicago is as close as you can basically get to Gencon geographically.  There will be a huge player overlap.  Third, SCG Chicago was only three weeks before Gencon - which in the lifecyle of Type One isn't even a moment unless there is an intervening set or restriction.  Fourth, Control Slaver is not like Fish or 4Cc last year - it's not something that can get easily hated out.

 

What you're neglecting to take into account is that the fact that the world championships is unproxied and draws people worldwide and as such will produce a different metagame from any local tournaments. This lessens the importance of geographical closeness and previous results. I have a teammate that lives relatively near to Chicago and he won't be coming to Gencon, if people like him aren't going to be making the trip then am I to believe a large number of players in the area will be making the trip to Indiana and produce this huge player overlap you speak of? There are also plenty of ways to hate out control slaver, ground seal, phyrexian furnace, lava dart and so on.

This is funny.  Contrary to your view, Control Slaver is actually tied with gifts for the easiest deck to put together from SCG chicago top 8.  And any player worth their salt thinking about playing in Gencon is quite obviously going to at least look at the SCG Chicago top 8 for an idea of what to play and what to face.  Dragon and the Workshop decks require cards more expensive than Mana Drain to build them.  And the number of people who can build Uba Stax without borrowing cards in the world probably numbers less than one hundred (I am one of them).

My underlying point is that control slaver is by no means a budget deck, and I would say the presence of numerous other cards of moderate expense(Force of Wills, blue duals, fetch lands, goblin welders, yawgmoth's will, etc etc) would help to make the cost close to just about any deck in the format. 

Control Slaver is possibly the most well known Vintage deck.  It is not an unknown quantity.  Do not pretend or suggest that it is.

 

Your teammate listed Control Slaver as "Tier 2" under the heading of a mana drain/goblin welder based deck using mindslaver and sundering titan in his article "A Player's Guide to Type 1". Now CS is more widely recognized, people are better prepared to play against it, it's no longer the "dark horse" it was last year.

That's cleary what I was suggesting Steve

The NE is perceived by people like me to be a hornets nest of Control slaver players.  I hear stories of tournaments where there are like 8 Control Slaver players and like 6 per top 8.  Remember the Waterbury in January where Meandeck Tendrils made top 4?  There were like 8 Control Slavers in the top 16. 

The Times They Are A-Changin

But maybe you've never heard that song.

Control Slaver died out almost completely after SSB came out, then Rich went on a tear with CS and it's slowly working it's way back up. So whatever stories you've heard about control slaver owning the NE meta are likely outdated. Judging by the turnout at that waterbury can I go ahead and assume Ohio folk are all play meandeck tendrils?

[Dr. Sylvan]

Or they use their Gorilla Shamans, Rack & Ruins, Naturalizes, or Artifact Mutations.  Some builds can even support Oxidize.  Now, I'm not saying board in every last one of these - but that's a solid mix of artifact destroyers at varied CCs.

The problem with answers in R/G is that you've got a small number of them and no deck manipulation. Your fundamental turn goes to shit if you have more than like eight artifact kill cards (maybe 2-4 boarded in and 4-6 maindeck, the latter probably being where your Mutations are), and you have basically no way to get more than a couple of them per game. A lot of smart opponents will have (a) Chalice, (b) at least some creature removal, and (c) counterspells. As you get into higher rounds, they're more likely to know to save their FoW for Mutation. It's just not a foolproof plan when you're topdecking praying for your four-of to appear more often than their 8+ counters.

Also, Steve has clearly been hanging around with too many lawyers, trying to create a difference between "dominate" and "predominate". Hilarious.

Last year's Friday daytime event at GenCon had about 16 out of 79 decks in what I would call totally n00b archetypes. So about 80% of the decks will be competitive, despite sanctioning and it being GenCon. I wouldn't go altering my metagame predictions for Scalpelexis.dec. Just be ready for more aggro than an SCG P9 tourney, and otherwise treat it roughly the same as SCG Chicago.

[Smmenen]

That's not quite accurate.  I said that Fish would predominate, but I never said it would dominate.

dom·i·nate  To control, govern, or rule by superior authority or power
pre·dom·i·nate  To dominate or prevail over.

How could I possibly have confused the two.

Despite my failure at basic english, it is abundantly clear from the article I wrote last year that I never once predicted that Fish would dominate the event - i.e. produce massive wins over the metagame.  The only claim I made was that the best fish players would at the top tables.

You are trying to equate my article last year with my predictions in this thread - and there is no equivalence.  The bottom line is that you are trying to discredit my predictions by drawing a false analogy in way that is simply wrong, false, and dishonest to do so when I never made such claims about fish last year that I am making now about Control Slaver. 

As for your suggestion that "times are achanging" that simply doesn't get around the simple fact that the North east is still PERCEIVED as a hornet's nest of control slaver.  Moreover, Rich Shay plays control slaver - it seems like 20 other people play the deck. 

What you're neglecting to take into account is that the fact that the world championships is unproxied and draws people worldwide and as such will produce a different metagame from any local tournaments. This lessens the importance of geographical closeness and previous results. I have a teammate that lives relatively near to Chicago and he won't be coming to Gencon, if people like him aren't going to be making the trip then am I to believe a large number of players in the area will be making the trip to Indiana and produce this huge player overlap you speak of? There are also plenty of ways to hate out control slaver, ground seal, phyrexian furnace, lava dart and so on.

I don't see why you keep ignoring a simple and straightforward question: do you honestly believe that Control Slaver will have less than two decks in the top 8 and second that there will be less than 4 Welder decks in the top 8? 

I have lived in the midwest for most of my life - I know what people play out here and I know what people play at Gencon.  You are right, it is more random - but that randomness filters away at the top tables by round 6-8 and the top 8 it is gone and it looks identical to a SCG event.  Does the World Championship draw a different crowd?  Sure - but the SCG Chicago data is the best and most revelvant data indicating what the Vintage champs will look like.  Your attempt to say otherwise is fraudulent and highly misleading. 

I think what Dr. Sylvan said is correct. 

[PucktheCat]

Actually, the distinction Steve is making between predominate and dominate makes perfect sense.  The population of South Africa is predominatly black, but under apartheid a white minority dominated the country.

But then, I have been hanging out with lawyers too.

Leo

[Smmenen]

Actually, the distinction Steve is making between predominate and dominate makes perfect sense.  The population of South Africa is predominatly black, but under apartheid a white minority dominated the country.

But then, I have been hanging out with lawyers too.

Leo

Thank you - I know I'm stupid, I but I didn't think I was *that* stupid . 

Dictionary.com says:
pre·dom·i·nate   Audio pronunciation of "predominate" ( P )  Pronunciation Key  (pr-dm-nt)
v. pre·dom·i·nat·ed, pre·dom·i·nat·ing, pre·dom·i·nates
v. intr.

   1. To have or gain controlling power or influence; prevail: Good predominates over evil in many literary works.
   2. To be of or have greater quantity or importance; preponderate: French-speaking people predominate in Quebec.

I was using the word in the latter sense.  I also never used the word "predominate" in my article - I was just using it here to describe what I had said. 

[NastyNate]

I think in very simple terms this post was started to state that Control Slaver and Stax appear, from the available data, to be the two strongest decks in the field. The best players recognize this, and will play one of these two decks, or they will plan to play against them.

Is it possible that Steve only wants to stimulate speculative conversation about what decks would be viable in the environment? I think it is pretty accurate to say yes.

The question at hand then becomes, aside from the top two decks, what stands a realistic chance of contending with these two, and not folding to the budget decks that will be played in the early rounds. It is my opinion that budget decks will be numerous, but not in comparison to years past, when Gencon attracted a much more casual crowd than it does now. So assuming you've got to play through a few rounds of FCG and Fish, before facing CS and Stax, what can you play that will win in that type of environment.

Looking at the second teir we've got workshop aggro, oath variants, and TPS. Few if any other decks really belong in this teir. Anything third teir shouldn't realistically make to the top eight. A few really expensive, but underplayed decks could be grouped in here like Uba Stax, and the Riddler, but they will not be played in numbers because few people have the cards to actually build them. Should we account for these match-ups? Maybe if you are really worried about them.

Who cares what Steve decides to play? He'll have to make the call just like everyone else. Without an objectively best deck in the environment, it will come down to deck choice, match-ups, sideboarding and play skill. Steve will play what he feels stands the best chance in this environment, and so will everyone else who is determined to win. I wish him luck and expect him to do well, but I won't be speculating upon his deck choice; he's just one player for crying out loud.

As far as his metagame predictions go, Steve has been correct far more often than he has been wrong. I think he presented sound reason for the predictions, and I have no reason to expect that he is attempting to mislead us in order to gain an advantage. Thanks for telling us what you think Steve.

I don't honestly believe that any monster deck is going to spring out from nowhere at the world champs and grab us by the gonads, maybe a little tech, but nothing revolutionary. Pick a good deck, board accordingly, and play tight. Of those who do, the guy with the best luck should prevail. End of story.