[Premium Article] Bluffing Drains and Storming Brains: Playing Control In T1

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/12435.html


There's no doubt that Stephen Menedian is one of the premier Vintage thinkers in the game today. This article tackles some of the more tricky decisions facing those packing Force of Will in the current Type 1 metagame... so that's almost everyone. When do you Force? When do you Drain? When do you hold back, and when does playing into a Force reap the rewards? A strong article, packed with positive theoretical tips.

[meadbert]

Great article!  I am still a bit confused about why it is best to sit on Ancestral when your opponent has one land.  You said your instinct was to wait till you had Force but to me I would much rather play Ancestral earlier.

The reason is that the probability that your opponent has a counter available is going to skyrocket when they drop their next land.

Also getting Ancestral Forced is one card worse in terms of card advantage than resolving it.  Getting Ancestral drained is 2 cards worse and then there is the extra colorless mana your opponent has.

Now if I fear Misdirection then I would absolutely wait till I have counter backup.

My question is do you feel confident that your instincts are correct in this case?
What if you knew you were playing a Slaver list with Mana Leaks and Mana Drains?  Would you still wait?

[zeus-online]

I often just sit on my draw spells and wait...timing is essential. Ancestral recall isnt something that i usually just "let go"..its definetly worth fighting over.

/Zeus

[Methuselahn]

There’s some good things in this article Steve, and a lot of newer players can pick up some tips to make their game tighter, but some things I have questions/concerns about.

First, the Demars example.  Personally, turn 1 Tinker with Force backup seems like a pretty safe gambit pretty much all of the time to me.  Now, I’m not sure if Brian’s opponent calculated the probability of him drawing one of his two welders, but it seems like Brian probably pitched a draw spell in hand because he was holding a bounce as the third blue spell.  Maybe he had a fourth blue as well.   Regardless, it’s unlikely that Demars was winning small facing a Colossus on the table.  Thus, the Tinker/DSC was enough to decimate his defenses, putting  him in range for a 8-10 point Tendrils.

Besides all of this, I’m not sure how this applies to bluffing.

Second, your example.

You: Land, mox, Merchant Scroll (Ancestral Recall), pass
Opp: Island, pass

You: Island, pass
Opp: Island, You Brainstorm EOT, pass

You: Fetch, break.

Your options:
1) Go to your second main phase and play Ancestral
2) Wait until your opponents end step and play Ancestral

What about casting Ancestral Recall during your opponent’s upkeep?  Why is this not a reasonable move?  They end up with the same resources but you gain tempo because they don’t get to untap right after you play spells.  Further, if they are forced to Drain during their upkeep, then they have to use the colorless mana now, with 2 less Islands at their disposal. 

The other key reason, as I stated, is that they will feel pressured into playing a draw spell immediately.

If this is an obvious bad play, then I’m not sure it helps support your logic.  In addition, I’m not sure that assuming that they do nothing after your resolved Ancestral equals an automatic win for you that you make it out to be.

I think the article shows that there is an important balance within the CA, tempo, and mana ‘dance’ that many players should learn.  A lot of players do things to not help them win small.

[forests failed you]

First of all:  I specifically told Steve that I wanted to see Darksteel Colossus banned, not Tinker.  On turn one Tinker is very similar to an eleven mana Shrapnal blast that keeps on giving.  At the end of the match my opponent told me he didn't think he could beat my deck, and ran that play against me in spite of the fact that I had three MD welders and bounce, was that he was hoping to get lucky and catch me without a welder or answer.

Tinker Colossus leads to randomness/  If he had any other card to Tinker for he would not have been able to kill, or even beat me that game.

As for the fact that he had turn one Tinker, FOW, Lotus, and Tendrils was kind of ridiculous.  The biggest problem with that particular hand was that I didn't have a Mox in my opening hand.  Had I been able to immediately E Truth his DSC the game would have been an absolute blow out in my favor.

That particular game three was the sort of game where aside from mulliganing, I don't think I could have won based upon the cards in my hand.  Ie, I really couldn't justify playing the hand any differently than I did.  And the hand was definately good enough to keep in the Gifts V Slaver match up.
Tinker DSC is a gamle that takes alot of skill out of games.  It also gives control decks a dynamic turn one play option that it shouldn't be allowed to have against aggro decks.  Colossus go, against Lackey go.  Fair.


I also am not sure that I agree with not casting the Ancestral Recall while my opponent is held up at one mana.  Firstly, I am almost always happy to trade my Ancestral Recall for my opponents FOW and a blue card.  I would almost always rather have a force and a blue card in my hand than a recall.  Recall is great for baiting out early game forces and allowing one to resolve more important early game bombs.  Ie Tinker, Gifts, or a TFK with a Welder on the board.  If my opponent has to cast Brainstorm to find the blue card, then that is just gravy.  MOre than worth my one mana investment, and one card.  Untap and cast TFK, Gifts, Tinker, or anything good from the top of my deck.  Waiting is dangerous,  I think that the prime reason to wait and wait for more protection so to avoid getting Mana Drained in a position where you can't stop your opponent from doing something broken during his next main phase.

[seer]

I think a deck like Control Slaver with ample draw, turn1 ancestral getting FoWed isn't that bad.

For a deck like MDGifts that basically only has two draw spells (the other being Fact or Fiction) it's really not ok to let your Ancestral get forced. The game becomes much more difficult if you do so.

Of course if you mull to 5 into Ancestral, all bets are off. You better run with the ancestral.

[Smmenen]

Second, your example.

You: Land, mox, Merchant Scroll (Ancestral Recall), pass
Opp: Island, pass

You: Island, pass
Opp: Island, You Brainstorm EOT, pass

You: Fetch, break.

Your options:
1) Go to your second main phase and play Ancestral
2) Wait until your opponents end step and play Ancestral

What about casting Ancestral Recall during your opponent’s upkeep?  Why is this not a reasonable move?  They end up with the same resources but you gain tempo because they don’t get to untap right after you play spells.  Further, if they are forced to Drain during their upkeep, then they have to use the colorless mana now, with 2 less Islands at their disposal. 

Which upkeep are we talking about?  Their turn three?  What are we assuming they have in hand?

I think the answer is several fold:

Playing Ancestral on upkeep is inferior to either:

a) playing it on your second mianphase on the prior turn
or
b) playing it on their first mianphase

depending upon what you are trying to achieve. 

Help me resolve the assumptions and I'll try to see if I'm wrong or not.

[kirdape3]

Here's the operable question though: How badly do you want that Ancestral Recall to resolve targetting you?  If you want it to resolve, then it's better to play it during their upkeep such that they don't see one extra card AND you can effectively Mana Short them if they defend themselves with a Mana Drain.  If you're just test-spelling them, run it them during their attack step and smash them the following turn.  Also, you would use this Ancestral on the beginning of their second turn (such that they don't have UU up and have only seen 8 cards total).

I'm not saying that either of those options are inferior or superior, just saying that's how I would run the card in those two scenarios.

[Methuselahn]

Second, your example.

You: Land, mox, Merchant Scroll (Ancestral Recall), pass
Opp: Island, pass

You: Island, pass
Opp: Island, You Brainstorm EOT, pass

You: Fetch, break.

Your options:
1) Go to your second main phase and play Ancestral
2) Wait until your opponents end step and play Ancestral

What about casting Ancestral Recall during your opponent’s upkeep?  Why is this not a reasonable move?  They end up with the same resources but you gain tempo because they don’t get to untap right after you play spells.  Further, if they are forced to Drain during their upkeep, then they have to use the colorless mana now, with 2 less Islands at their disposal. 

Which upkeep are we talking about?  Their turn three?  What are we assuming they have in hand?

Oh, I thought the assumptions were quite clear.

(You) have played 3 lands, as indicated by what I've quoted.  So this would make it their 3rd turn.  And of course, during your opponent's upkeep as I have indicated.  We are assuming they have in hand exactly what you have indicated in your article.  Only the information you've given, obviously.

[Smmenen]

I think the answer to your and rian's question is this:

If you want the Ancestral to resolve with as little of a fight as possible: then you should play it on your mainphase.

However, if you goal is not necessarily to resolve ancestral, but to get them to tap down and misuse mana drain, the best time is their First mianphase.  At that point, they'll have seen an extra card, got more land into play, and have more resources to fight you.  And if you just want them to be at maximum fire power and you don't care about drain, then their end step. 

Upkeep isn't a bad time to play a spell, but it is the time to play a spell in narrow circumstances when:

You have counted their cards, you don't want them to get another land into play (say they could get double drain) and you want to be able to leverage your fire power.

I should mention that perhaps one operating assumption is that since I'm playing against Slaver, giving slaver ANY mana on their second mainphase is dangerous because it takes so little for them to "fix" their game plan.  I'll have to take a closer look at the situation to give a more comprehensive response if that is not satisfying, which I'd be happy to do. 

[Methuselahn]

Ok, now I'm even more confused and have more questions.

I think the answer to your and rian's question is this:

If you want the Ancestral to resolve with as little of a fight as possible: then you should play it on your mainphase.

Ok, could you elaborate as to why this is?

If you're casting Ancestral during your mainphase, [second main, 3rd turn] then your opponent gets to untap after the Ancestral War is over, thus making such a fight much more appealing than fighting during his upkeep, I would think.  Would you rather untap after Draining your opponent's Ancestral, or not?   I know I'm basically repeating what Rian said, but I'm not seeing the reasoning as to why one of the only two viable plays is during the second mainstep and not the upkeep even though the game state remains completely unchanged.  The additional benefit of the upkeep play is that it taps them out in your favor. 

Moving on,

However, if your goal is not necessarily to resolve ancestral, but to get them to tap down and misuse mana drain, the best time is their First mianphase.  At that point, they'll have seen an extra card, got more land into play, and have more resources to fight you.  And if you just want them to be at maximum fire power and you don't care about drain, then their end step.

I agree with these first two sentences wholeheartedly.  Although I'm usually happier to see my own Ancestral resolve than to see my opponent resolve Mana Drain (albeit ineffiecently).  *shrug*
 
So the other only viable play is to let them be at maximum firepower!?!?  I'm not sure this rare move is entirely wise as most experts will not overextend into your trump card.  Perhaps, I'm understanding this incorrectly.


I wouldn't mind hearing from others how effective they think announcing '2nd main' really is as it requires no actual resources.  Do you/have you used this bluff before?  Do you think it has worked?

As far as bluffing goes, IMO, there is 1 golden rule and it is very simple.   Yes means No, No means Yes.

[edit- for timing clarity]

edit2- omg post 666, evol.   

[Mr. Type 4]

I wouldn't mind hearing from others how effective they think announcing '2nd main' really is as it requires no actual resources.  Do you/have you used this bluff before?  Do you think it has worked?

The psychology of bluffing is something that I can talk about all day long.  The thing is, different bluffing strategies work differently on different people.  You have to be able to feel out your opponent a little bit, figure out what you have to do to make an effective bluff.

It is very strong to use Mana Drain on your second main rather than your first.  it is also very strong for your opponent to not know what is in your hand.  I don't know if you ever had to cast a sizeable Mana Drain on your first mainpahse, but it usually sucks pretty hard.  Now, if you bluff having Drain a few times throughout the game it will be difficult for your opponent to know if you really have Mana Drain when you actually do have it.  You want them to be thinking "second main phase... does he have it, or is he actually full of shit??"  Give your opponents a chance to make mistakes, they often will.

On the other hand, it could be more effective to only go to 2nd main when you actually have the drain, so that when you really need to make this bluff it's more believeable.   

[LessThanRight]

Another good article.  Just for clarification:

"You go to your second main phase and you tap an Island and play Ancestral Recall. Your opponent taps both of their land and plays Mana Drain. You tap both of your land and play Mana Drain. If you are holding Force of Will, you just screwed up very badly."

"Second, and most important, if they have Force of Will for your Force of Will, you get to Mana Drain their Force of Will for an enormous five colorless mana on your next mainphase (which is your next turn)."

If your opponent does have both Drain and Force, wouldn't this be a mistake on your opponents part to start with the Drain.  You've left two blue open, signaling Drain. 

1. You: Ancestral
2. Them: Force
3. You: Force
4. Them: Drain

or, if it follows the bluff,

1. You: Ancestral
2. Them: Force
3. You: Drain (as signalled)
4. Them: Drain

From the opponents stand point it seems better for them to lead with Force. 

Not that it changes the situation much, you still get to Drain their last counter, you'll just get 2 mana versus a good opponent and 5 versus the bad ones.

Here's another thought:

Are there any good rules on when to let your opponent win the counter war?  For example, when your opponent puts Tinker on the stack and you have two counters active as well as Chain of Vapor in hand.  Do you spend the extra counter to prevent the Tinker, or save Counter 2 to protect the back breaking Chain on the fresh Collosus? 

Here's another one:  Your opponent is going off with a Tendrils based deck.  You have Active Force, plus a Stifle.  Do you bait out any possible protection by Forcing a key tutor, or hold the Force to protect your own Stifle.

Thanks again to Steve for the great article.

[Smmenen]

I think we are getting confuzzled cause the timing is not clear.  For instance, Meth: I think I was referring to the mainphase before your opponents turn, not after. 

Give me a chance to reread the article and then I'll try to reconstruct the scenario with a fuller analysis.

[Smmenen]

Ok, I’ve reread the article from the beginning so I now have a better sense of the context in which I was placing the pedogagical example.  What I could have done was present a more fuller analysis of when to play Ancestral.  To be quite frank, without more information, I don’t think a “correct” play can be discerned.  What the Gifts player has in hand would inform what the Gifts player’s goal is.  Specifically, what the Slaver player has done beyond what is in the example would be valuable information.  Let me basically sketch the pros and cons of four potential times to play Ancestral.

To reiterate, the question is: when to play Ancestral and the play situation is this:

T1
MDG: Mox, Island, Scroll for Ancestral
CS:  Island

T2:
MDG: Land
CS: Land
EOT, MDG Brainstorms

T3: 
MDG: Fetch land, break it. 

There are four relevant opportunities to play Ancstral:

1) The first is on the MDG players second mainphaes.  This enables the MDG player to play Ancestral, protect it with Mana Drain and then use that Mana Drain mana next turn.

The remaining three options involve passing the turn to the CS player’s third turn and play it

2) On their Upkeep
3) On their first mainphase
4) On their endstep

Let me analyze each.

The point and the goal of the exercise is that MDG here is trying to resolve Ancestral.  The importance of this fact is this: MDG player is not going to play Ancestral unless it thinks it can resolve.  The MDG player assumed that the Slaver player now has Drain and FoW up.  The MDG player also has Drain and FoW.

Playing it on the second mainphase, option one, have the following effects:
•   You maximize your ability to resolve Ancestral among the four options.  The chance of them being able to play three counterspells is quite slim.
•   You expose yourself to a broken play they may execute on their turn (i.e. Tinker for Slaver and Slave you next turn)

Playing it at option 2, has the following effects:
•   This is the second best time to play it in terms of your chances for getting it to resolve. if they EOT Brainstorm on your endstep of the prior turn, or if they had a Mox and EOT tried to play a Thirst, they would have used their mana on your turn, and now they would have the advantage of having maximized their resources up to this point and advanced their position.  The point is that they have a better chance of either having three counterspells to stop you or of being able to tactically recover from the Ancestral play.  For instance, they may get a draw spell of their own to resolve sooner as a result.
•   However, the trade off from option one is that you may also get them to tap out on their turn, thus losing their mainphase (effective time walk!)
•   However, there is a chance they won’t tap out – they may not have Drain, or they may have another spell they will just play on their first or second main.   

Playing it at opt 3 has the following effects:
•   this is the third best time to play it in terms of your chances for getting it to resolve.  They will have seen at least one more card (from their draw step) and have had an opportunity to play another land
•   if they drain, they will have to use the mana on their second mainphase (which could cause them to waste the mana, OR, it could actually lead to a productive use of the mana (such as by playing a third land and then Thirst for Knowledge).  If they played a turn one Welder, this becomes more threatening.

Playing Option 4 has the following effect:
•   it is almost the same as option 3 except that:
•   it eliminates the possibily that they can use mana drain mana on turn three.  There is a slightly higher chance that they can stop you.  For instance, they could brainstorm or do all kinds of insanity at this point.

Summary:
The analysis is clear – the question is: what is our goal?  As I stated, our goal is to resolve Ancestral.  Look at why:

Let’s assume:
I play Ancestral
They drain
I FoW
They FoW
I Drain their FoW

Now, I can untap and play Gifts and just win with all that mana (and the resources drawn from Ancestral).  However, let’s say the goal was to just draw out their resources:

So, lets’ assume that on turn three they play Sapphire and a land:

I play Ancestral
They Drain
I Drain
They Drain
I FoW
They FoW

Now, at this point, they will be completely spent on counter power.  The idea would be that I could just untap and win.  But I can’t:

Look:
Tinker – does nothing here – I could get DSC, but they will untap and have tons of extra mana – and any threat will turn into the win.
Yawg Will – my gy is too lite for that to work
Gifts: I don’t have mana drain mana, so I’ll have to use all my mana to play Gifts.  My gifts will be weaksauce – esp. since they’ll get a turn. This si the most likely bomb I could drop.

On the other hand, if we were to reverse the situation.  If Slaver were the one to Scroll on turn one, then the situation would be completely different, not reversed.  Slaver, as a deck, is much, much, much more threatening when it plays a single draw spell.  Slaver could afford to sacrifice Ancestral to ensure a Thirst resolves that will enable you to definitely resolve Will.   

Gifts cannot make that sacrifice.  In order to make its gifts good, it needs a critical mass of support and acceleration. 

In conclusion, if we had a full concrete example including information such as opening hand, and precise board states, we could say with certainty which option was best.  As it stands, I still lean toward Option 1, although I must confess that option 2 looks much more attractive than I had originally thought.

In the article, I knew I was going to go with option 1, so I simplified the entire scenario – particularly options 2-4 into a single option as a way of making a simple dichotomy.  Also, it is relevant if not important to this example that slaver did not play more acceleration.  The lack of slavers accelleration suggests that it is at least two turns from “comboing” out.  Thus the fight on MDG 3rd mainphase will not enable slaver to likely combo out. 

This makes me wonder if there is a better way to analyze these decks – to examine their progression from start to crticial mass from a perspective of subturns or tempo that would actually predict when a deck combos out.  I can generally eyeball it, so I’m sure that there is a way we could break it down into its component parts. 

[Methuselahn]

Steve,

Thank you for re-addressing my question and your article so thoroughly.

I haven't thought about it too much, but I have to wonder if finding a new way to analyze all of this is practical or not.  In order to do so, you have to have a good understanding of the decks in question as it is.  Also, intuition to make the right moves and the ability to effectively 'eyeball it' is a requirement for such analyzation.  (which comes naturally with experience -- a necessity to begin with)