Play Situation 5: Grim Long

[Smmenen]

What do you do!?   

[Jacob Orlove]

Are we currently in upkeep?

[arj]

Use Petal for Vampiric Tutor. Put Lotus on top. Use brainstorm to fetch Lotus and hope you hit a land. If you get get the land you can play your whole hand and bounce his colossus. Otherwise bounce his colossus and play mana vault unless you get lucky and hit something like recall or will on the brainstorm.

[Evenpence]

A)  It's still his EOT, I assume?
B)  You're using your build of 5c Grimlong?
C)  What does your graveyard have in it?
D)  Do you know what your opponent is playing?

Not knowing any of the above questions, there are a few ways to play this.

I.  EOT break petal, Hurkyl's Recall him, hoping he doesn't have a Force of Will in his hand.  Then, during first main phase, play brainstorm to find a black source to ritual-necro ftw.

This is incorrect because it's so risky.  If he has force, you get screwed over.  If he doesn't, but you don't find a black source, you'll be digging for turns while he restabilizes.

II.  EOT break petal, Vamp for Lotus, play Brainstorm, getting Lotus and setting up draw.  During our turn, draw whatever, play lotus, break for black, play dark ritual, play necropotence.  If forced, hurkyl's.  If no force, play Mana Vault with 1 of 2 remaining black manas.  Then, play Hurkyl's Recall on his Colossus.  If he allows the necro and vault, but not the recall, draw 5 with necro, going down to 13 life (2 from the vamp tutor, and keeping 1 open for fetch/city of brass).  There's variance in this, depending on what we saw with Brainstorm.

[EDIT:  Arj, you can play your entire hand regardless of whether you draw a land or not.]

I think this is the right option.  However, there is a third:

III.  EOT Brainstorm, hoping for Chain of Vapor, Yawg Will / Black Lotus.

     a)  If we got Chain of Vapor, EOT vamp for lotus.  Draw Lotus, play Chain of Vapor on his dude.  If he Forces:

          1)  Play Lotus, saccing for blue, hurkyl's recall his colossus, hoping that you draw a black source in the next few turns and he doesn't have drain.
          2)  Play Lotus, saccing for black, playing dark ritual + mana vault -> Necropotence, etc.  We already went over this.

I would say the 1st of these two options is the better.

     b)  If we get Yawg Will, EOT Vamp for Lotus.  Begin Turn, Draw Lotus.  [Our hand is:  Hurkyl's, Mana Vault, Dark Rit, Necro (or another card that's better),   Lotus, Yawg Will.]  Play Lotus, break for black.  [1 storm, BBB floating]. Tap Sapphire.  [1 storm, UBBB floating].  Play Mana Vault with a B, and tap it.  [2 Storm, 3UBB Floating.]  Play Hurkyl's Recall on opponent.  [3 storm, 2BB floating.]  If he doesn't counter, play Necro and proceed to win game.  If he does counter with force, [4 storm, 2BB floating].  Play Dark Rit (obv) [5 storm, 2BBBB floating].  Play Yawg Will.  [6 storm, BBB floating].   Replay Dark Ritual  [7 storm, BBBBB floating].  Replay lotus, saccing for blue [8 storm, UUUBBBBB floating].   Replay Lotus Petal too.  Vamp Tendrils, Brainstorm FTW.

(hitting Lotus yields the same result, you just vamp for Yawg's Will then instead, obviously)

I would normally do II., that is, playing vamp for lotus, then casting brainstorm and seeing what I can do from there.  This provides for me the maximum amount of options with the smallest amount of risk.  I also have chances if he forces the recall in the five cards that I draw off Necropotence.  Hopefully one of the cards in his hand is not Time Walk.

While III has an absolute win in it, you're going to see 3 cards, one of which has to be Lotus or Yawg's Will - the chances are not good at all.

[rare hunter]

A)  It's still his EOT, I assume?
B)  You're using your build of 5c Grimlong?
C)  What does your graveyard have in it?
D)  Do you know what your opponent is playing?

Not knowing any of the above questions, there are a few ways to play this.

I.  EOT break petal, Hurkyl's Recall him, hoping he doesn't have a Force of Will in his hand.  Then, during first main phase, play brainstorm to find a black source to ritual-necro ftw.

This is incorrect because it's so risky.  If he has force, you get screwed over.  If he doesn't, but you don't find a black source, you'll be digging for turns while he restabilizes.

II.  EOT break petal, Vamp for Lotus, play Brainstorm, getting Lotus and setting up draw.  During our turn, draw whatever, play lotus, break for black, play dark ritual, play necropotence.  If forced, hurkyl's.  If no force, play Mana Vault with 1 of 2 remaining black manas.  Then, play Hurkyl's Recall on his Colossus.  If he allows the necro and vault, but not the recall, draw 5 with necro, going down to 13 life (2 from the vamp tutor, and keeping 1 open for fetch/city of brass).  There's variance in this, depending on what we saw with Brainstorm.

[EDIT:  Arj, you can play your entire hand regardless of whether you draw a land or not.]

I think this is the right option.  However, there is a third:

III.  EOT Brainstorm, hoping for Chain of Vapor, Yawg Will / Black Lotus.

     a)  If we got Chain of Vapor, EOT vamp for lotus.  Draw Lotus, play Chain of Vapor on his dude.  If he Forces:

          1)  Play Lotus, saccing for blue, hurkyl's recall his colossus, hoping that you draw a black source in the next few turns and he doesn't have drain.
          2)  Play Lotus, saccing for black, playing dark ritual + mana vault -> Necropotence, etc.  We already went over this.

I would say the 1st of these two options is the better.

     b)  If we get Yawg Will, EOT Vamp for Lotus.  Begin Turn, Draw Lotus.  [Our hand is:  Hurkyl's, Mana Vault, Dark Rit, Necro (or another card that's better),   Lotus, Yawg Will.]  Play Lotus, break for black.  [1 storm, BBB floating]. Tap Sapphire.  [1 storm, UBBB floating].  Play Mana Vault with a B, and tap it.  [2 Storm, 3UBB Floating.]  Play Hurkyl's Recall on opponent.  [3 storm, 2BB floating.]  If he doesn't counter, play Necro and proceed to win game.  If he does counter with force, [4 storm, 2BB floating].  Play Dark Rit (obv) [5 storm, 2BBBB floating].  Play Yawg Will.  [6 storm, BBB floating].   Replay Dark Ritual  [7 storm, BBBBB floating].  Replay lotus, saccing for blue [8 storm, UUUBBBBB floating].   Replay Lotus Petal too.  Vamp Tendrils, Brainstorm FTW.

(hitting Lotus yields the same result, you just vamp for Yawg's Will then instead, obviously)

I would normally do II., that is, playing vamp for lotus, then casting brainstorm and seeing what I can do from there.  This provides for me the maximum amount of options with the smallest amount of risk.  I also have chances if he forces the recall in the five cards that I draw off Necropotence.  Hopefully one of the cards in his hand is not Time Walk.

While III has an absolute win in it, you're going to see 3 cards, one of which has to be Lotus or Yawg's Will - the chances are not good at all.

Its his turn, he just cast Mox and Petal.

[TheMuffinMan]

The log from magic workstation reads that he is in his first main phase as he has already drawn his card. Also in the present state of the game he has a storm count of 2.

I feel the correct yet all or nothing play is to:
1. Sac the lotus petal for black and then play dark ritual Mana = BBB sc =3
2. Use 1 black to pay for vampiric tutor getting yawg will. Mana = BB sc =4
3. Use 1 black mana to pay for mana vault. Mana = B sc =5
4. Tap mana vault and use one mana from mox sapphire to hurkyl's recall yourself. Mana = 2B Sc = 6
5. Play mana vault with colorless mana. Mana = 1B sc = 8
6. Play mox sapphire Mana = 1b sc =9
7 Brainstorm with mox sapphire Mana= 1b sc = 10

Then if you draw into any ritual effect, lotus, any land, led, or a mox jet you should be able to go off no problem. THis gives you alot of outs and will allows you to win the game outright.

I think the correct play here is to try and go for it as passing the turn allows him to have the ability to potentially get mana drain mana open, or to be able to brainstorm/ancestral into something disruptive.

[Evenpence]

Yeah, I apparently can't read.

[ErkBek]

Okay, I don't think this hand is all that difficult. I think the key is adding up your mana before you do anything (4UBB) then thinking of your offensive plays.

1. Sapphire
2. Petal
3. Ritual off petal (BBB)
4. Mana Vault, tap sapphire and vault (3UBB)
5. Hurkyl's Targeting self (2BB)
6. Sapphire tap (2UBB)
7. Mana Vault tap (4UBB)
8. Vamp for Will (4UB)
9. BS drawing will and 2 other cards. Drawing jet, land, lotus, rit, tendrils, or a tutor (23 outs) all spell game over. (4B)
Play something found on the BS 
10. Play Will  (2 or more in pool)
11. Petal
12. Ritual
13. Vamp for Tendrils
14. BS

This play requires hitting at least one of those 23 outs, seems to be the best odds but it does take a little luck. You lose to FoW, but if they've got a turn 1 DSC with FoW backup, this hand isn't gonna beat it.

[ErkBek]

This play requires hitting at least one of those 23 outs, seems to be the best odds but it does take a little luck. You lose to FoW, but if they've got a turn 1 DSC with FoW backup, this hand isn't gonna beat it.

If you do it the way I said it, you might be able to beat FoW, esp. if you can get the dude to blow it on the Hurk's.

I've got 24 outs, I forgot LED.

The thing is you HAVE to hit a land on the brainstorm, I've got fidy outs, I just lose to the God Damn nuts of turn 1 tinker DSC with FoW backup. I'd say its a 20% chance they've got FoW + Blue card left. My play I'll BS into an out about 70% of the time, so about 20% of the time they'll have FoW left, meaning I win 56% of the time. On your play you just flat out lose if you don't hit the land ~50% time....and then you don't even have the win for sure....and I instantly win the game 56% of the time.

[Gandalf_The_White_1]

1) The opponent used his fetchland to get Underground Sea instead of a basic Island when he already had Mox Jet

I don't think he did; he's at 20 life and I'm pretty sure that the 2 cards in his graveyard are tinker and a mox that he sacced to it; he must have played the underground sea from his hand.  This means that if he is a good player he probably doesn't have a fetch or island in his hand or he would have played that instead, or perhaps he does have a fetch and wants to maximize a brainstorm he is holding.  It's pretty likely that he either has another dual in his hand or no other land at all.  If he has no other land at all and is a good player this makes it even more likely that he is holding fow+blue card.

As for the actual play, I think that JD is right and that we have to assume based on our opponent's plays that fow+blue card is more likely that just the probability of drawing it would alone suggest (because without fow a good opponent is much less likely to have made this play in the first place).  Therefore, I would probably go with JD's line of play for the reasons he already stated, if I thought my opponent was capable.  If I thought he was a scrub, I would probably do what Becker suggested and go for the quick win.

[Elric]

I personally was thinking my opponent wouldn't have gone for Tinker without FoW backup.  Blind Tinker is pretty risky if you have no backup.  Therefore, I think it's likely he DID draw the nuts of Tinker + FoW backup.

The odds that he has FoW is still 40%.  You only look at the opening hand percentage, since it didn't change.  The fact that only 3 cards remain is irrelevant.  Now, he might not have a blue card...that's a pain to compute.  But here it goes:

This is a minor point, but this reasoning isn't correct.  By this logic, even if you knew that your opponent's starting 7 cards included all 5 moxes and black lotus, he'd have a 40% chance to have the last card be Force of Will.  The point about your opponent likely going for the blind tinker because he has Force of Will is well taken, though.

[Harlequin]

In a world without Mulligans:

Control.dec -- 60 card deck, of which 24 cards are blue of which 4 are force of will.

in 7 cards, your odds of haveing turn 1 force of will is:

Prob of:  exactly 1 force of will and at least 1 blue card = 31.611%
+ Prob of: 2, 3, or 4 forces of will (with any number of non-fow blues) = 6.322%
---
These sets are exclusive and exhaustive of how to have turn 1 fow. 
Prob = 37.933%

With mulligans and what not ... 40% is a good estimate of FoW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Conditional Probabilty:

We know information about the hand.  were not looking for the probability of having a playable force of will in 7 cards anymore, we're looking at the prob of a playable force of will given the information that we know 4 cards are not force of will.

So what information do we have about the 3 unknown cards:

52 cards in the library + 3 cards in hand = 55 unknown cards.
23 blue cards (the original 24 - 1 tinker) are still unknown

which breaks down to:
19 non-force blue cards
4 forces of will are still unknown

So there here are all possible 3 card hands that could have a playable force of will:
-- FoW, blue card, any card = 11.877%
-- FoW x2, any card = 1.166%
-- FoW x3 = 0.015%
---------------
13.058%



Here is the clasic example of conditional probablity:
You am on a gameshow in which there are 3 doors.  Behind 1 of the 3 doors is a prize, and there is nothing behind the other 2 doors.  You are instructed to choose a door, but before the open your door they decide to show you one of the doors that you did not pick, that does not have the prize in it.  They open the door.  If the gameshow host gave you the option to change your choice to the other unchosen door, should you take it?  Yes, No, or Doesn't matter.

--> so for example.  I choose Door #2, then they reveal that door #3 did not have the prize ... they give me the chance to change my choice to door #1 - does it matter?


The answer is yes.  you improve your odds if you change.  Infact you go from a 33% chance of winning to a 66% chance of winning. 

[desolutionist]

I think the correct play is to play Lotus and Sapphire and end, bluffing a Drain.  Let him swing for 11 and then hopefully combo out next turn.  You only need a black or a blue source off Brainstorm and passing the turn let's you see one additional card.

Why does he have 2 colorless floating?

[GUnit]

Okay, I don't think this hand is all that difficult. I think the key is adding up your mana before you do anything (4UBB) then thinking of your offensive plays.

1. Sapphire
2. Petal
3. Ritual off petal (BBB)
4. Mana Vault, tap sapphire and vault (3UBB)
5. Hurkyl's Targeting self (2BB)
6. Sapphire tap (2UBB)
7. Mana Vault tap (4UBB)
8. Vamp for Will (4UB)
9. BS drawing will and 2 other cards. Drawing jet, land, lotus, rit, tendrils, or a tutor (23 outs) all spell game over. (4B)
Play something found on the BS 
10. Play Will  (2 or more in pool)
11. Petal
12. Ritual
13. Vamp for Tendrils
14. BS

This play requires hitting at least one of those 23 outs, seems to be the best odds but it does take a little luck. You lose to FoW, but if they've got a turn 1 DSC with FoW backup, this hand isn't gonna beat it.

This is the play that I worked out on paper. But I'm a gambler at heart. Meandeck tendrils is one of my favourite decks ever.

Nevermind... my play works with rebuild, not hurkyl's... I wasn't thinking.

[Mr. Type 4]

I would say that the odds of him not having Force are very good.  he went first, he opened a hand with turn 1 DSC, he doesn't mull that hand just because it doesn't have Force.  I would say it's almost definitly worth the risk given the situation.

[desolutionist]

It occurs to me that another sequence of play that would protect you from DSC and virtually ensure victory the following turn would be:

sapphire, petal (UB)
ritual (UBBB)
vamp -> ritual (UBB)
hurky's, replay sapphire (UB)
BS (B)
ritual (BBB)
necro (0)

Draw lots.

end turn

This seems like a more conservative approach that may be worth consideration.

I don't agree.

1) You can only activate Necro 8 times. (6 if you plan on using Vampiric, 5 if you plan on also using a Fetch, and 2 if you plan on using a single Grim Tutor as well)
2) You're completely vulnerable to Tendrils.

It's even more risky than just hoping you get the mana source off the Brainstorm.

I would say that the odds of him not having Force are very good.  he went first, he opened a hand with turn 1 DSC, he doesn't mull that hand just because it doesn't have Force.  I would say it's almost definitly worth the risk given the situation.

Probably not.  But a lot of people don't turn 1 Tinker without Force protection.

[GUnit]

I was thinking rebuild, not hurkyl's. My play works perfectly fine with rebuild. (You just have to play mana vault)

[Moxlotus]

It's possible he kept a Tinker hand without Force.

Mox, Mox, land, land, Tinker, Brainstorm, Gifts.  That's definitely a keepable hand.

[erictehfatz0r]

I agree with JD, I don't think someone would expend Tinker so early if they did not have the backup of FoW+blue in hand, especially playing against an unknown deck. It's only because he has the FoW that he did it so early, because he could at least protect the tinker as it's resolving. Any other combination of cards in your opponent's hand would probably make him wait out the Tinker for later.

I know that if I have possible turn 1 Tinker with no FoW, I pitch it for a fresh 6 playing an unknown deck. Too risky.

[GUnit]

Is our opponent playing Gifts or CS?

With CS I'd probably tinker-->jar if I had turn 1 tinker without backup, because I think that's a safer gameplan. I wouldn't likely tinker-->DSC without counter backup, unless I was feeling lucky.

With Gifts I'd consider just going for the big dude, though.

[Komatteru]

I know that if I have possible turn 1 Tinker with no FoW, I pitch it for a fresh 6 playing an unknown deck. Too risky.

I think you mean to say that if you have a one-threat hand, even when that threat is Tinker and you can play it on the first turn, you ship the hand back.

That's just sound Magic playing.  Keeping a one-thread hand is bad playing, in any format with any deck.

[freakish777]

Why does he have 2 colorless floating?

It's storm not colorless (Petal + Sapphire).

If the hand involved another blue source, if Necro were that blue source, I think it's safe to say that the correct play would be to bait with Hurk's (targetting them) into Vamp for Lotus/Will (passing the turn or otherwise).

That said, I think I have to go with JDizzle's original plan of BStorm for mana, Hurkyl's them (althought I would Hurkyl's them now if I rip the extra mana source, there's no sense in letting them see another draw and pick up BStorm/Drain/FoW to pitch to their FoW instead of the possible Gifts/Time Walk/Mystical/etc that's sitting in their hand now), and let them go ahead and FoW the Hurkyl's.

If they don't have FoW, you've essentially just won (you still have business left with Vamp/Necro, and you're still sitting on Vault), chances are they do have FoW, and that means you're taking 11, Vamping in Upkeep for Will and hoping they didn't hit land drop + Drain.

Who keeps Tinker, Jet, Non-blue Mox, USea, X, Y, Z, leads with Tinker, and doesn't have Force and a blue card in X, Y, Z?

If you've got BStorm, why didn't you lead with BStorm (or pass the turn to wait till endstep) instead of Tinker?
If you've got Merchant Scroll, why didn't you lead with Scroll (for AR or FoW)?
If you've got Thirst for Knowledge, why aren't you passing the turn and Thirsting endstep?

The only logical explanation for going all in with Tinker without FoW back up would be if this is game 2 or 3, you know your opponent is playing combo, and you're bluffing the FoW hoping they have a weak hand and will make mistakes allowing you to swing with Colossus until the last possible turn and giving you time to find FoW/Drain.

That said, I'm putting my opponent on having FoW and going for BStorm into mana source and playing Hurkyl's recall (again if they've got FoW I still have business left and they need to hit Time Walk, or blue source + Drain, and if they don't have FoW I fairly safely).

[ErkBek]

Who keeps Tinker, Jet, Non-blue Mox, USea, X, Y, Z, leads with Tinker, and doesn't have Force and a blue card in X, Y, Z?

If you've got BStorm, why didn't you lead with BStorm (or pass the turn to wait till endstep) instead of Tinker?
If you've got Merchant Scroll, why didn't you lead with Scroll (for AR or FoW)?
If you've got Thirst for Knowledge, why aren't you passing the turn and Thirsting endstep?

The only logical explanation for going all in with Tinker without FoW back up would be if this is game 2 or 3, you know your opponent is playing combo, and you're bluffing the FoW hoping they have a weak hand and will make mistakes allowing you to swing with Colossus until the last possible turn and giving you time to find FoW/Drain.

Remember that you know that you are playing vs. Steve in these games. You know he's probably running either MDG or Long. Thus racing him with DSC is totally viable. I'm still convinced my play is optimal.

Seriously, what's the deal with everybody assuming you have to be holding a FoW back? I'd say if he's got a FoW and blue card then my opponent is a lucksack and he can have this game. Chances are he's got either

A) MisD + Blue Card (to protect from tinker or bounce spells)
B) Merchant Scroll + Blue Card (in which case he grabs FoW next turn)
C) Island and Mana Drain (prob most likely)
D) A combonation of Merchant Scroll/Brainstorm/Gifts (in which case he prob did something wrong at this point)

My play is best because it beats all of the above. If he's got a scroll and he knows that he's playing vs. Long or Gifts (because its Steve), I'd say turn 1 Tinker and turn 2 scroll is strong because Long wins though FoW if it gets 3 turns all day. His play leaves himself somewhat vunerable to a turn 1 kill, but is very strong IMO.

[freakish777]

I'm not convinced that a player with Scroll (or BStorm) would opt for Tinker first.  It's not that he has to be holding FoW its that he has a lower probability of not holding it than the sheer statistics would tell you, it's very rare to see anyone in Vintage go all in with Tinker and no back up on turn 1.

Additionally if this person know's they're playing Steve, the logical conclusion is that they're a playtest partner (and thus not the type of player prone to making poor mistakes).  Having Island + Drain might be likely, but I'm not sure going for Hurkyl's this turn isn't the right play then.  They have Drain and (and likely Drain only in their hand) at that point, putting us in a pretty good spot (it may or may not be better than the 70ish% chance you have of winning in your this turn if they don't have FoW scenario with 24 outs to hit for winning the game on the spot, the real issue here is having a heuristic that's agreed upon as rough percentages of winning a game in a given situation with partial information).

[ErkBek]

I'm not convinced that a player with Scroll (or BStorm) would opt for Tinker first.  It's not that he has to be holding FoW its that he has a lower probability of not holding it than the sheer statistics would tell you, it's very rare to see anyone in Vintage go all in with Tinker and no back up on turn 1.

If the gifts player is holding a scroll and blue card, I think that they made a great play by tinkering out DSC turn 1 vs. Long. Seriously, turn 1 DSC and turn 2 countermagic is tough to beat. Its a lot tougher to beat than turn 1 countermagic up and turn 2 DSC.

Let's say you played a turn 1 scroll for force, then Long plays a turn 1 Duress. Your fucked. At least if you tinkered out the huge man then you've put them on a serious clock, and possibly shut down a grim tutor chain.

[Liam-K]

1) Brainstorm.  Lord, I hope I hit a land off that.
   1.1) If I hit the land (and it taps for black):
      Fantastic.  I play the land and pass.  Inside of his combat step, I hit him with Hurkyl's Recall.
         ...
         1.1.2) Suppose it doesn't resolve.  Fantastic!  I didn't want that shitter to go off anyway.  Now he might be tapped out (if he used Mana Drain), and if not, he has like no cards.  From here,
            1.1.2.1) I am at 8 or 9 life, and I have a land in play.  Upkeep, I vamp for Will.  I am assuming that I didn't hit any business that was worth playing off the Brainstorm.  The win is very simple.

I must be missing something very simple, I've read this like five times.  Where are you getting B for ritual on your second turn mainphase, after blowing petal last turn and tapping your land for vamp?

If I'm right you actually have to play this as 1.2 (assuming by "mana source that doesn't make black" you add without saying "but does make blue").  This really weakens your logic, because casting ritual will make your opponent more nervous about countering hurkyl's and because you have to jar to try to win (granted, with 1 floating and an open land drop, but not a sure thing).


Now, I am inclined to assume Force of Will.  First of all because winning 60% of your games is 3-2-0 at best, and second of all because as has been said, 2(U/B) is enough to cast things other than tinker and with no force of will in hand, things other than tinker are probably a better play than tinker.  Therefor I play around force of will as best I can, and the turn 2 tinker after bait still looks like the strongest option.  Using vampiric tutor before hurkyl's may be correct, I'd be more inclined to counter it when I'm not all wigged out not knowing why you ritualed, and really, you want them to counter it.  Incidentally, they might even counter the ritual (probably not on their combat phase but it's possible) after which hopefully you can still EoT vamp.

Also I like JD's play because it leads with brainstorm.  You can immediately adjust your plan based on what you see without having already fucked up.

[wox2]

It is interesting to see world from Steve Menedianˇs view.

[Klep]

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