[Deck/Primer] Dread Return Ichorid - aka Cookie Monster

[Harlequin]

What if I told you, we made a deck that broke almost all of the fundamental rules of magic... but was still tournament legal--

A deck that runs less than 60 cards
A deck that can mulligan to 7 cards
A deck that averages 1-2 mulligans per game AND a goldfish to turn 2-3 WITH disruption
A deck that plays only free spells
A deck that has free effects that net +5 and +6 card advantage
A deck that is virtually immune to disruption
A deck that only needs to resolve 1 free spell to win the game on that turn.

The deck:
"Cookie Monster"

The Engine (14)
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Golgari Gravetroll
4 Stinkweed Imp
2 Darkblast**
0 Vamp Tutor*
0 Crop Rotation*
0 Life from the Loam*

Mana (8)
1 Mox Jet
1 Chrome Mox
4 Bayou
2 Overgrown Tomb

Disruption (14)
4 Chalice of the void
4 Unmask
4 Cabal Therapy
2 Duress**

The Cheats (4)
4 Serum Powder

The Free Creatures (12)
4 Ichorid
4 Ashen Ghoul
4 Nether Shadow

Win Condition: (8)
2 Dread Return
2 Sutured Ghoul <--- "The Cookie Monster himself"
2 Dragon's Breath
2 "Meat Creatures" (typically I like: 2 Devouring Sostruss)

Cards marked with a * change from deck to deck.


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Deck Credentialing

So far this deck has been 'street' tested in 3, 5-round tournements (1 by jer an TMC, and 1 by Jer and 1 by myself at the Myriad games tourny on 11/11).  It went 4-1 at TMC, and 4-1 by Jer @  and 3-2 (9th place) by myself @ Myriad.  The 4-1 then went up through top-8 to loose in the Finals and take 2nd Place.  **Noteably there were 20 Joten Grunts in Top 8 ... and plenty of Grunt decks that didn't make t8 at Myriad... so the meta was basically against us.

Now granted, there is probably some degree of "shock" value.  But you can't ignore the fact that this deck has consistantly either been in, or very close to, top-8.  Even if its only in 3 street tests.  MWS and Team Testing has also been very very promising.

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How the deck wins-- its very simple

Turn 0, Use the Serum Powders and normal mulligans to find any hand with bazaar it in.  STOP AT NOTHING TO GER BAZAAR!  Mull to 1 if necessary.

Turn 1 - Play bazaar and ACTIVATE IT during your main. You want to see as many cards as you can, so you can play moxen, chalice @0, and unmask.

Turn 2 - Start up your dredge engine

Turn 3 - if you do not have the sauce, cabal therapy once or twice to set up for lethal ghoul next turn.  If you've got the sauce then see below...

Turn 4 - Dread Return -> lethal ghoul... attach a dragon's breath from your yard, eat the Krosian's and any extra 3/1's you have, and lay the smack down with a 35/29-some odd Trample w/ haste.

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Why Cookie Monster?

Well, That is Jer's choice.  He says that Sutured Ghoul is like Cookie Monster because he eats things.  For those of you who are thinking "but he only eats cookies ... hes not threating at all"  I would ask you this - Of all the characters on Seasame Street, which would you not want to get in a fight with the most?  Alot of people say Oscar the Grouch, to which I answer... he has no legs.  Think about it, if he had legs, why wouldn't he leave that trashcan??  To defeat the Grouch just grab a mop, or broom and tip that can right over.  GG Oscar. 

No clearly the Cookie Monster is the most Dangerous guy on the block.  Imagin your in an alley, and you see that blue giant all hopped up on cookies ... he feals NO PAIN.  His eyes all glossed over, that thick powerful neck and arms...  thats terrifing, like fighting a freaken Grizzly Bear with a pointed stick (and I'm not talking about the 2/2s here).

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The Mulligan Theory --

The theory on Mulligans is EXTREMELY Easy.  Its so easy that its hard to stick to.  Here is the underlying strategy:  Activate bazaar turn 1.  That’s all that really matters.  After that the deck goes auto pilot.  Even if bazaar is destroyed after you activate it... it doesn't matter.  you've got your tempo boost.

So that means there is only 1 relevant question when deciding to mulligan or not.  Am I holding Bazaar of Baghdad?  If yes = Keep; If no* = Mulligan.  Here is where the Serum Powders come in.  Serum powder is unimaginably broken in this deck.  it simultaneously does 2 things that are great for your deck.  #1 it means you don't loose card advantage when mulliganing, and #2 it thins your deck below 60 cards giving you better odds to draw bazaar.

*Vamp tutor and Crop Rotation can give some wildcard keepable hands.  If you've got turn 1 Unmask into a castable Vamp, with other good cards in hand ... then you can safely keep that hand.  Vamp gives you Bazaar #4.5 if you have other disruption.  Esp in 7 and 6 hands, it can be treated like Bazaar ... But again, I would DEFINATELY not keep any hand with land vamp.  without unmask (or Jet-> duress) its too risky.

Powder Drawbacks: None? 
With the exception of Bazaar, Each card in the deck is important but not ~that~ important.  ~and remember if you bazaar in hand then you autokeep.  Lets go over the key cards--

2 Dread Return: if you RFG all of these, then your playing ichorid ... which blows, remember you can normally mulligan hands that have powder in them.  So If you draw a 6 hand after RFGing 1 Dread return AND you have a Powder+Dread #2 - I would normally mull that and take the 5 hand to preserve the primary win condition.

2 Sutured Ghoul: if you loose both ghouls, you can always throw 13/13 hasters along side ichorids.  Or have a sustainable 9/9 flying trample haster (remember you choose the order of the triggers).

2 Dragon's Breath:  Add a turn on to your win condition. More dangerous, but by no means does it shut you down.

2 "Meat creatures": If you RFG both of your beefy creatures, then you probably need to tack on 1-2 turns for the win.  It means that you'll need to beat with ichorids for a turn and -then- animate the ghoul and rfg all your extra ashens/stinkies.  That will build a fairly strong sub-lethal ghoul.  Dread Returning a golgari gravetroll is not that bad either.

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Why is this better than ichorid? 

The short answer is: Because it isn't ichorid... its a Sutured Ghoul combo deck. 

Ichorid is a fragile win because it requires 3/1's to win the game.  Lava Dark or darkblast can end up being a huge setback.  It is also more fragile because it cannot afford to not have a constant source of for ashen ghoul.  This deck can (and usually does) win without ever adding mana to the mana pool.  Bazaar -> ichorids and nether shades -> dread return -> 30 dmg to the face.  Even the disruption is free Unmask, Chalice @ 0, and Therapy can buy you 2-3 turns and/or protect your win condition all a 0 mana cost commitment.  This means the deck can afford to keep hands of Bazaar + Junk with no other mana.  So mulling to 4 or even 3 can easily win you the game. Ichorid is Plan-B, the primary reason ichorid is in the deck is because the deck needs free creatures to get dread return and cabal therapy online.   The deck doesn't have issues with large creatures.  Even a Tinker-DSC doesn't phase the primary win condition of the deck.  35 is the typical low-end power for the ghoul (13x2 + 3x3 = 35) and with trample that is still lethal to a player a 20 life w/ a DSC.  Akroma (who historically owns ichorid) is even less effective at stopping a Ghoul.

Cabal Therapy makes the deck insanely powerful.  It means cards like Force of will, or creature removal do not function as actual answers to the deck.  Unmask gives you the peak you need, and cabal therapy gives you the pre-emptive answer to anything standing in the way of your win condition.  on turn 3 after a turn 1 or 2 unmask, 4 creatures returned and a full GY will spell an easy win.

Essentially you have a solid turn 3-4 win backed by tons of free disruption. with the weaker Ichorid alternate win.

A closer look at Therapy.  The deck is basically an Auto-Pilot deck.  Even mulligan choices are broken into simple Logic strings.  The only "skill" card in the deck is Therapy.  When to go for the win, and when to spend a turn of set-up is the only critical choice in the deck.  If you're not "a gamblin' man"... this deck is definitely not for you.  You basically have 1 opportunity to make a choice the entire game, so you need to ride everything on that one choice.  As a rule of thumb, shredding off 3 cabal therapies then waiting a turn, is better than going for a blind Dread Return right now.   

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Sideboard.  Its hard to evaluate the sideboard of this deck... because very rarely will it matter.  The only real auto include for the board is x4 LL of the Void.  A typical board will be:

4 Emerald Charm
4 LL of the Void
3 Ancient Grudge
2 ~cards*
2 ~cards*

Leyline is a Great answer to Combo.  It doesn't mean combo cant win, it just means that it is much more difficult for them to win on turn 1 or 2 (ie no Rit Rit Rit, DT, will, Rit Rit Rit, DT, Tendrils).  Also it slows Dragon.  With Serum Powder you can really ensure a turn 0 Leyline.   

Emerald Charm.  Answers LL of the void for G.  vVastly superior to Ray of Rev.  Ray of Rev only works if your dredging successfully... that great .... it totally worthless both when there is no threat on the board AND when the threat is on the board.  I would probably side some in against oath (over darkblast) but again you usually have no problem building a ghoul big enough to roll over any angels before they kill you.  Destroying an Oath of druids is usually trivial.  Emerald Charm actually has a secondary effect that is HIGHLY relevant.  If your opponent does not turn out a LL on turn 0, then all of your emerald charms become mini-timewalks in that you can use them to UNTAP BAZAAR!  Because Emerald Charm is essentially NEVER dead, it is often good to side in 2-3 for game 2, just on the off chance they side in LL.

Ancient Grudge is good.  It can answer odd threats if your "winning" but cannot win.  Such threats include: Ensnaring Bridge, and to a lesser extent... Platinum Angel,  and Eon Hub.  Also it answer Pithing Needle.  You may need that initial Kick of 1 Bazaar activation to get the dredge engine online to find this little guy.  But it helps you combo out faster after a turn 1 or 2 Needle.

The 2 of "cards".  Well this really depends on what you maindecked.  If you went with 4 Duress, then 2 Darkblast, and 2 Life from Loam would be good.  If you went 2 Duress, 2 darkblasts then you want 2 duress and 2 life from the loam in the board.  As a general rule, between the main deck and side you will want access to 4 Duress and 2 Darkblast.


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The probability of not finding Bazaar:

Serum Powder, the worst artifact ever printed ... or the best?

As I have said, the powder gives you the ability to make your deck smaller.  This means 2 things, you have a higher probability of drawing a bazaar, AND it is easier to mill your "entire" deck into the GY (because your entire deck is now less cards).  Starting the game with 12-14 cards RFGed is a tremendous consistency boost.  The only card I REALLY don't typically RFG more than 1 of is Cabal Therapy.  Against a control deck, 3 Therapies is essential.  RFGing 2 Therapy will make the win much less stable.   

Through Experience testing, I would say out of about 100 combined games maybe 1 (or 2) did not have find a Bazaar by the time you have mulled to 1.  Calculating this probability directly is a term-paper sized operation, because both the number of the serum powders and the total cards in the deck will change each time you use a powder.   So lets investigate why its almost impossible to not find bazaar:

Prob( 0 of 8 cards | 7:60 cards ) = 34% {this says you will mull to 6, about 34% of the time, because you found 0 of the 8 cards you were looking for. namely 4 bazaar + 4 Powder}
Prob( 1,2,3,4 of 4 cards | 7:60 cards ) = 40% {40% of the time you'll start with a bazaar in your opening 7 hand, and 40% of the time you'll start with serum powder}

"hey that’s more than 114% moron!" ... yeah so?  Remember that starting with a bazaar and starting with a powder are not mutually exclusive.  So 14% of the time you will have both a bazaar AND a powder ... moron

SO:  100% - (34% + 40%) = 26% --- so what is 26%? 
26% of the time you will 'use' a serum powder to RFG your hand and mull to 7 again.  But NOW your deck is no longer 60 cards... also you no longer run 4 powders.  Your prob to draw bazaar increases and your prob to draw powder decreases.
{note: 26% also is (100% - 34%)x(40%) by the conditionality theorems... isn't math great?}

Some simple Definitions:
Event-a:  is the event for successfully drawing a Bazaar in any given hand.
Event-b:  drawing no bazaar, but drawing a serum powder, resulting in removing the hand and drawing the same size hand.
Event-c:  Drawing neither Bazaar nor serum powder, resulting in a Paris mulligan.

So the first branch on the tree is:

draw 7 cards (in a 60 card deck):
a) 40% --> drew at least 1 bazaar = Keep {end tree}
b) 26% --> drew 0 bazaars and at least 1 powders { Deck size => -7 ; Powder => -N* ;; goto draw 7 cards}
c) 34% --> drew 0 bazaars and 0 powder {goto Draw 6 cards}

So as you loop through event b, the prob(a) increase, and the prob(b) decreases.  After one pass through b the tree now looks like this ASSUMEING that you only drew 1 Powder... if you drew 2, then the prob would be completely different.

Draw 7 on 53 card deck with 4 bazaars and 3 Powders:
a) 44% --> drew at least 1 bazaar = Keep {end tree}
b) 21% --> drew 0 bazaars and at least 1 powders { Deck size => -7 ; Powder => -N* ;; goto draw 7 cards}
c) 35% --> drew 0 bazaars and 0 powder {goto Draw 6 cards}

You can see how this is getting exceedingly complicated.  Attempting to "tree" this out can only be done in 3 dimensions because you have X = Number of cards in the deck, Y = number of cards drawn, and N = number of Serum powders in the deck.

The point is that each loop through event-b causes the prob-a increases; however with each pass through event-c the probably of event-a decreases.  So what the heck are we looking for?  The meaningful probably is the complex event: we will not reach event-a once before we reach event-c 6 times. 
 
For purposes of approximation if we assume that Prob(a) roughly equals that of Prob(b) in the long run;  then it would be the same prob of flipping a fair coin Tails 6 times in a row (with 0 Heads).  Which is roughly 1.5%, now factor in that the coin has a considerable bias towards flipping heads (at least on the first few flips)....  1 in a 100 appears to be a good enough estimate.  *Lets not even talk about the remote hand of Bayou, Vamp, Unmask, Black card, Disruption card, x2 any card....  Its keepable but totally not counted in our "simple" tree.

Simulation (i.e., write a program to generate 100,000 hands and count the failures) would likely the best way to generate the probability.  But when your talking about +/- 0.5% Simulation is essentially worthless.  The real way to do this is with a Probability Matrix.  But I don't have the programs at my finger tips, nor the time to set the Probability Matrix up, to generate the pure probability for this - especially not for "fun." But its basically safe to say "you will get a bazaar 'every' time."


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The Primer Part:

Ok So now you want to play the deck.  You get that you will always* start with Bazaar in hand, and that you basically want to resolve a cabal therapy in the turn you go off with Dread Return.  You've also reviewed your rules about Dredge cards.

Ok so what is going to give you issues-

Major Problems:
"I mulled to 1" --  Well..... GG buddy GG.  Is rare, but it technically could happen.  The game is more or less over for you.  If its game one, just draw-go until you see what your opponent is playing.

On the draw "Pithing Needle naming Bazaar" -- Ouch.  That generally means your going to be looking for the max hand size to be your discard outlet.  If you mulled down to 4-5 and your against gifts, you probably loose.  Against Fish, you probably have time to build up a 7 card hand, and play "Draw for turn, dredge Golgari ... discard Golgari."  Which can usually win you the game in the long run.

Turn 0 LL of the Void --- Ouch again.  Hopefully you put in your Emerald Charms.  There isn't much more to say outside of that.

Minor Roadblocks:

Joten Grunt -- This guy is fairly nasty on turn 2-3ish.  The Danger of grunt is really a matter of timing.  A Grunt too early means they get at best a double time walk.  If you've got say 6 cards in your yard, immediately stop activating bazaar and dredge cards.  Just take 8 to the face and let the grunt die.  If Grunt comes down too late, then obviously you've got your momentum up and that 4/4 is going to be an ant when compared to the Ghoul.

Needle/Waste/Strip After 1 Bazaar activation --  This is why you generally want to dump dredge cards into your yard on the first activation.  It can be very bad, but getting a solid dredge engine rolling in your yard should be enough to keep dredging ever draw for turn.  Ancient Grudge is for Needle, but what about Wasteland?  The Wasteland problem is why we have been testing Life From the Loam.  Its a rough answer to this problem.  Pithing needles of your own can be a solid answer, but if the needle isn't in the first few cards + your hand... then its never going to be played.

Tormod's Crypt -- Tormod's crypt is manageable. Chalice for 0 helps make sure your not staring down Crypts too often.  Ancient Grudge can help force them into popping it.  But generally it will take 2 Tormod's Crypts to effectively shut this deck down.

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Match-ups

Favorable Matchups:

-- Oath --

Oath gives you FREE creatures, and takes a few turns to win.  With your opponent giving you creatures, you can fairly easily race a turn 1 Orchard-Mox->Oath.  In Game 1 Dredge Big and you can usually Trample your way right over even a double Angel defense.  Post Board you want:  4 Leylines, at least 1-2 Ancient Grudges, and 1-2 Emerald Charms.  Ashen Ghouls are less important as are duress and possibly chalice. 
Grudge is for Plats and Pithing Needle.  Charm is good against the Oath itself, but it is not impossible for Oath to have LLotV in the board.  I like LL in against oath myself, because it means they will have to be more conservative with their oathing.

-- Stax --

Oh poor old Stax...  Active Player Non-Active Player rules can really give them a hard time.  Against stax, you may need to fall back on the Ichorid Plan.  This is because #1 they are not going to have early blockers and #2 they may have Spheres giving your flashback cards trouble. 
Post Board you want... 3 Ancient Grudges, 2 Darkbast.  For this match, Ashen Ghoul, Unmask and Duress are not that great they can probably come out... Maybe even 1 Serum Powder, or a Golgari.

-- Slaver --

Slaver seems to have an answer to everything in the format... accept this deck.  Resolving a Chalice for 0 against slaver is huge.  Even if slaver tinkers early for colossus you should have no trouble winning the game.  Just throw disruption at them and then through a huge ghoul at them.  Simple enough.
Post Board you want it all.  Slaver has a huge card pool of options to side in against you.  Bridge, and Plats are not impossibilities as well as Leyline of the Void is not impossible.  Pithing Needle and Tormods crypts are likely.  So Game 2 you need to watch how many card they side in.   For game 2, 2 Charms, 2 Darkblast, and 2 Ancient Grudges should be plenty against them.  I usually shy away from Leylines in this match because Slaver doesn't use the graveyard in the early game like Pure Combo does.  So I would rather not thin the deck of creatures or dredge cards.  Siding out cards is tough.  I generally go for 1 Dragon Breath, Golgari, Ashen, and Nether Spirit.  So as not to disrupt the flow of the deck too much.

-- Non-white Non-Black Fish/Agro --
So this is your monoblue, your Goblins, your Shop Agro, your various colored stompy.
The worst you have to deal with here is probably x4 Tormods Crypt.  So don't be fooled and side out chalice!  Traditional Ichorid has trouble in this match up because Root maze, x/4's, direct creature damage, and first strike creatures common here.  All of which Ghoul couldn't care less about.
Post Board - Just have answers to what they might have, Darkblasts are a given... then a few grudges (pithing Needle/Tormods/Eon Hub) and a few charms (propaganda/Worship/ghost prison/ground seal).  Duress comes out, Its probable safe to take out Unmask as well. DO NOT SIDE OUT CHALICE!  This can be a good matchup for Life from the Loam.  But life tends to be fairly situational.


Fair Matches:

-- Gifts --

Gifts and Slaver are very similar.  But Gifts can tend to "go broken" earlier then Slaver can.  Unchecked Gifts with a Tendrils win can Race you with some degree of consistency.  Chalice for 0 is huge against Gifts.  Against Gifts or Slaver, you can thank your deity of choice if you open up with Bazaar, Unmask, Chalice on the play.
Game 2 you want 4 Duress, 4 Leylines, and maybe 1 Ancient Grudge.  Take out the 2 worthless Darkblasts, and then I usually side out at least 1 Golgari, and sometimes even chrome mox.  A Dragons Breath can usually safely come out as well.  Then the normal 1 Ashen Ghoul and/or Nether Shadow.

-- Non-Dread Ichorid --

I would actually put this matchup on a relatively even keel.  Firstly, they sometime maindeck LLotV, which is Auto-loose game 1 on turn 0.  Also with their blue cards they can flip their deck into the yard a turn or so faster than you can.  So they have that race going for them.  If you can survive, then your Ghoul will obviously go all the way, but don't neglect the ability to Dread Return Small and early.  Throwing an early Sostruss on the board or even a 6/6 Grave Troll can give you the small advantage to set up a more confident win off your 2nd Dread Return.
Post Board "WAR OF THE LEYLINES!"  Here is where your Serum Powders will help win the match.  4 Leylines, 4 Emerald Charms, 2 Darkblast.  Crappy stuff comes out, Duress and Unmask are top picks.  Keep in Chalice because they need mana more than you do, and a lot of there mana are moxen.  Now you break the Mulligan Rule for Bazaar.  Now the game is get Leyline and {BG-Land or Charm} in your opening hand.  Leyline will leave them scrounging for an answer to LL, Having either the land or the charm in hand means you only have to find the other piece to answer a leyline. 

-- W/R (TMwA), W/B, or W/R/b Fish  --
What makes this matchup tough is a well timed Grunt.  Combined with the Tormods, and the Swords to Plow, and the Wastelands/Needles.  Good Draws, backed by a good player will often give you run for your money.
Post Board: 2 Darkblast, 3 Ancient Grudge, Life from the Loam.  What do you take out?  Well an ashen Ghoul and a Golgari are a start.  Duresses are fairly safe to take out.  But I would certainly leave in Unmask (because it can take creatures) and Chalice (to stop Tormods Crypt).  These matches are really a toss up.  Its whoever has the right answer at the right time.  Ichorid + Darkblast will kill a Grunt, but Grim Lava Mancer during my draw step will shut down a Dread Return... So there is alot of give and take in this matchup. 

-- MonoBlack --
This is a rare deck, but theoretically is could give you a really hard time.  With the amount of Graveyard hate this deck hast to offer your probably going under.  However alot of monoblack's power comes from hand disruption which doesn't concern you. So you've got that going for you.

-- Sullivan's Solution --
This deck seems to have lost popularity, so I wont put too much time into discussing it.
This deck is decently slow... but with the right cards, it can definitely get the upperhand in a major way.  Planar Void + Flip Erayo is probably enough to destroy you.  Put in your Emerald Charms and hope for the best.... Your basically Racing their draw engine.

-- Bomberman --
What makes this matchup bad is the recurable Tormod's Crypt.  As I said in the beginning, the deck can most likely play around 1 crypt, but 2 are just too strong... Never mind infinite.  If Bomberman gets an early lead, then its hard to catch up.  But ultimately they are a slower deck then pure combo.  I'll say that originally, and on paper, bomberman was in the "Favorable matches" section.  But in Tournament Testing, the results were about even.  So to err on the side of caution I'll say that Bomberman is an Even match.
Post Board - 4Leylines, 3 Grudges.  Out come duress (but again, unmask stays in) and probably a Golgari and Ashen, and the darkblasts.

-- Pitch Long --
I would say that Pitchlong is a better matchup than Grimlong simply because they sacrifice speed for stability.  That 1-2 Turn Extra is enough for you to generally race Pitchlong even with only one piece of disruption.  I have not tested this match very much, so Its hard to really comment on if the match is Fair, or Un-favorable. 
Post Board: 4 Leyline, 4 Duress.  with Darkblast and some creatures out.
In my experience Pitch Long generally has access to tons of Artifact Bounce (Hurk's and Rebuild) but limited Enchantment bounce namely Chain of Vapor.  They also may have a more difficult time winning via Mind's Desire because they don't have Wheel, Regrowth, etc.  But they can race you, so maybe this match should be in the "unfavorable" catagory.  Admitily more testing is needed for this match-up. 


Un-Favorable Matchups

-- Pure Combo (Dragon, GrimLong, 2LBelcher) --
These decks are straight-up faster than you.  Without Heavy turn 1 disruption, you will not make it turn 3.  This puts a good degree of strain on your opening hand.  Mulligans become more difficult because Bazaar is likely not enough if you have NO other disruption.  On the same token, a very heavy disruption hand with no bazaar will make you too slow to be a contender.
Post Board: 4 Leylines, 4 Duress, possibly 4 Emerald Charms (Dragon typically has Leylines).  Out go the 2 meaty creatures, usually 1 dragons breath, and the 2 darkblasts.  Along with 1-2 Ashen Ghouls and 1 Golgari.  You need to throw all the disruption you've got at them.  Heavy Turn 1 disruption will give you enough time win.  However these matches hinge on the edge of a knife.  A single broken Topdeck mise will end the game. 

-- Well constructed U/W or U/W/b Fish --
This is ESPECIALLY True if they are Vial Fish, and running Tormod's Crypt.  Not only do you need to answer Swords and Grunt... but now you add Meddling Mage (naming Cabal Therapy or Dread Return), counterspells (including Daze which is amazing against you) and "control creatures" like Stormscape Apprentice or waterfront bouncer.  If they have black and access to Wither Wretch then the you are REALLY in for a world of hurt.
Post Board: 2 Darkblast, 3 Ancient Grudge, Life from the loam.  taking out... who knows Golgari, Dragons Breath, Ashen Ghoul, maybe Duress... Its tough to say.
If they bust out with early Mage and Grunt tag team there is almost nothing you can do.  The only thing you really have going for you is inevitability versus a slow clock.  If you can get away from Grunt and start building up a solid yard, then the Ichorid Plan is probably the best.  Just keep up steady damage.  Getting an early Dread Return on a Golgari or Sostruss will help you hold board against their army.


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Whew, that was longer then I thouht.  I'm sure there are plenty of questions ... so FIRE AWAY!

[warble]

FYI, to do the serum powder bazaar calculation you should just take it as a sum of probabilities and only track the 8 cards you care about in the equation.  If you care about cabal therapy that makes 12 cards, but it's easier because you only have 3 cards x4, not 12 distinct cards.  I can set up the problem for you, but I won't set it up with cabal therapy because that would take longer to explain:

Probability of the deck crapping out (not finding bazaar) =
1 - sum (i = 1 to 7) Probability of finding a bazaar in an i card hand after mulligans (actually, this is a secondary formula and not the primary summation required)

For the purposes of this problem, we need only one formula for a function with 4 variables:

F(total deck size, number of bazaars left, number of serum powders left, number of cards in the hand) = probability of finding a bazaar in the deck with the condition described, through only mulligans.

For a 7 card hand, the probability of finding a bazaar in a 7 card hand is simply the probability of finding a bazaar in your opening hand + the probability of finding no bazaar and 1 serum powder plus . . . so you can see we have a recursive equation on our hands, something close to the bell shiznizzle if you know some math.

Looking at the easiest case, let's look at
F(32, 4, 0, 7) = probability of finding a bazaar in a 32 card deck with 4 bazaars.  This is simply 1 - 28 choose 7 divided by 32 choose 7 for the initial hand, plus F(25, 4, 0, 6)

Looking at a slightly more difficult case, we look at
F(39, 4, 1, 7) = F(32, 4, 0, 7)*probability of getting a powder but no bazaar + . . .

Sorry I can't finish this right now I've got a lot of work to do.  PM me if you have any questions about this.

With regards to the deck, it looks awesome and emerald charm is tremendous tech.  It would be very rough to get leyline + chalice for 1, I guess every deck has some sort of weakness.  That definitely seems like a minor and hardly exploitable vulnerability, and serum powder looks uber broken in this deck.  Props.

[Harlequin]

Reguardless of how you decide to calculate the probability of Event-a, b, or c is more or less irrelevant.  What matters is that Prob(a) on hand #2 is dependant on wether you got to Hand #2 by path B or by path C.  So the Prob(a2) is differnt based on the conditionality of Prob(a2|1=b) and Prob(a2|1=c).  Now... bring that to hand #3  Prob(a3|bb) <> Prob(a3|cb) <> Prob(a3|bc) <> Prob(a3|cc).  To do this right you need 1 of 2 methods..  Time Serise Analysis with Perfect Time Corelation, or a 4 dimentional Probability matrix where the look back is not simply 1 ... its actually infinite lookback.

I think the Coin Flipping Comperable probability is actually fairly good.  Because on a high level, the prob(b) is more or less irrelevant.  So the Prob(a|not b) and Prob(c|not b) are roughly equal.  hense the coin flipping ^^. 

[Glix]

I have called this deck Dredge Return, which I think is a more approriate name than Dread Return Ichorid (but Cookie Monster is a good name aswell).

Having played against this deck, it is extreemly powerful.  It rips through itself by turn 3, with plenty of disruption.  Serum Powder is crazy good.

That being said, I have some comments.  First of all, I'm not sure I see why your bayou/tomb mana base is superior to a 5 color base.  This is mostly because the deck wins by turn 3 usually, and doesn't even need mana.  Even if you tapped a land three turns in a row, Gemstone Mine and City of Brass seem just better.  An untapped tomb will deal 2 to you, and city will do the same over two turns but also provide you options.

Maindeck, the advantages aren't as obvious, but it opens up the sideboard.  Wax/Wane could be stronger than Charm, you can hardcast an ancient grudge, which could be very necessary because Pithing Needle on bazaar really does destroy this deck.  At that point, if they, on the first turn of the game, cast pithing needle on bazaar your only out is Grudge, and you can't hardcast it as of now.

I comletely agree with the lack of rotation and tutors.  Between powder and your natural lack of mana, they will likely only be dead weight more often than not.

As for meat, Kuro Pitlord or Spirit of the night might be options.  I thought that the Kloudscraper was unneccessary, and more often than not having blackened meat would be better, in case you had (HAD) to fead an ichorid.  Cookie Monster is usually large enough with even just strossus and some ichorids and ghouls.  Kuro would be good as it can take out welders, opposing ichorids, hell, even a colossus.

Nice deck, I really like your innovation, Jeff.

[President Skroob]

===============================

Deck Credentialing

So far this deck has been 'street' tested in 3, 5-round tournements (1 by jer an TMC, and 1 by Jer and 1 by myself at the Myriad games tourny on 11/11).  It went 4-1 at TMC, and 4-1 by Jer @  and 3-2 (9th place) by myself @ Myriad.  The 4-1 then went up through top-8 to loose in the Finals and take 2nd Place.  **Noteably there were 20 Joten Grunts in Top 8 ... and plenty of Grunt decks that didn't make t8 at Myriad... so the meta was basically against us.

Now granted, there is probably some degree of "shock" value.  But you can't ignore the fact that this deck has consistantly either been in, or very close to, top-8.  Even if its only in 3 street tests.  MWS and Team Testing has also been very very promising.

Just out of curiousity, what did you end up hitting that you lost against? I know there's the tournament report for The Mana Clash, but I was wondering what the lost games were lost to in the other tournament settings and what specifically brought you down.

[Harlequin]

I lost to W/B/R Fish ... Double Wasteland + perfectly timed Grunts.  I think if I was a bit better at handling the Grunts (and letting them die) I might have done ok.  But that deck had alot of answers so, I'm not going to say "I would have won"
and then I lost to Bomberman ... Tinkered Tormod's Crypt in game 1 sealed game 1.  And for game 2, I got hit with a crypt early but I was able to return a Sostruss w/o haste, and an Ichorid to hit my oppent down to 2 before I decked myself.  If I had 1 more returnable creature or one more card in my deck I would have likely won at least 1 game.

@ the 5 color mana base.  Your probable right.  Originally we had Landgrants in here, but they were terrible.  After getting rid of the Land Grants we honestly never really considered the 5-color mana base.  I don't think I would change to white enchantment hate because the charm can be timewalk if they didn't play/don't have the LL.  So in the outside chance that you have 2 mana and Grudge its probably better.  I'll give you that.  It never came up in testing to be honest. 

On that note, I'll say that for the most part, if your opponent is locking you down with needle; you really want to get to your max handsize ASAP.  So unless your sure that the grudge will resolve, I probabilty wouldn't cast it if I had 5,6,or 7 cards in hand anyhow.  I don't even think I would play lands.

[dicemanx]

These Dread Returns decks have been fun to follow - great job guys! I was wondering what you think about the following:

1. SB Putrid Imp - Against decks that use Pithing Needles, Imp gives a decent alternative discard and minimizes your dependency on Bazaar. Has this been considered?

2. Leyline of the Void main - 4 Void in place of 1 Ashen Ghoul, 2 Duress, and probably 1 Darkblast. Leyline just seems so solid and gives you a chance game 1 vs your toughest match-ups, not to mention the mirror. I'd hazard a guess that its at least as good as Duress given that both essentially target the same decks, and you could clip an Ashen Ghoul since it's no so easy to be returning multiples into play in a given turn as you're unlikely to go past 1 mana on average. Thoughts? Did you guys try Leyline main?

3. Emerald Charm is some cool tech, but is it really better than opting for the 5 color mana base and playing the more flexible 4 Chain of Vapor instead? Or is the untapping of Bazaar for another activation more significant than one might imagine?

Also, what are your thoughts on the manaless version of this Dredge/Ichorid deck? It sacrifices the option of returning Ashen Ghouls or hardcasting Therapies, but does play MD Leylines and opts for Gigapede, which is a great way or continuing the dredging in the face of a 1st turn Wasteland. It also features Petrified Fields to offset Wastelands as well.

[Harlequin]

1. I think that Imp is probably not nessisary.  Its actaully not that hard to beat a turn 1 Pithing Needle.  Infact I was able to beat a turn 1 needle against Outlaw in my first round.  Granted it took several turns of him drawing garbage in order to do so.. but still.  So in that reguard, it hasn't been considered because we have not found Needle to be that dangerous.  Ancient Grudge and/or some good ol' fassion EOT discarding usually does the trick. 

2. Leylines Main - Its basically a meta call.  Currently the players in my area (the NE) Grim Long and Dragon decks are few and far between.  Gifts and Slaver are fairly major along with Fish.  While Leylines will help against Gifts and slaver, Duress is striaght up Better.  Duress will either slow them down, or steal there answers for cookie monster... where Leyline strictly slows them.  If I expected more pure combo then it would definately be a logical choice (if you were deadset on this deck that is... which is probably not a great choice).

3. I wouldn't say that Chain is more versitle... esp because DSC doesn't matter.  We have beaten many turn 2 Tinkers with basically no problems.  Nothing can really compeat with Grudge + charm (takeing up 7 spots).  Charm rarely goes to waste.  Even if charm is the only card in your hand, you can tap bazaar (stack the draw/discard) and respond with Emerald Charm.  Then resolve the dredges, and then tap the bazaar again.  Traditional Ichorid tries to keep a hand, this deck basically should not have a hand past turn 2.  In that way Emerald Charm is great, because you know by the end of turn 0 if you NEED it, or just use it for a mini-timewalk.

[policehq]

You'll be mulling lot less with:

8 B/G producing lands
4 Putrid Imp
Learning how to Unmask/Cabal Therapy yourself to get things going
2 1cc tutors

Plus, Sutured Ghoul is extremely overkill, and if they have one answer, you're wrecked. Bounce, StP, whatever, and all the creatures you removed from the game (all your threats) are gone.

I think B/G is definitely the way to go though, because Emerald Charm is awesome.

Here's my list.

// Lands
    4  Bazaar of Baghdad
    4  Bayou
    4  Overgrown Tomb

// Creatures
    4  Ashen Ghoul
    4  Ichorid
    4  Golgari Grave-Troll
    4  Stinkweed Imp
    1  Laquatus's Champion
    4  Putrid Imp

// Spells
    2  Dread Return
    1  Mox Jet
    4  Cabal Therapy
    4  Chalice of the Void
    1  Chrome Mox
    4  Unmask
    4  Leyline of the Void
    4  Serum Powder
    1  Black Lotus
    1  Imperial Seal
    1  Vampiric Tutor

// Sideboard
SB: 3  Ancient Grudge
SB: 4  Root Maze
SB: 4  Emerald Charm
SB: 4  Pithing Needle

Laquatus's Champion doesn't take 8 cards in your deck to combo out. You have three creatures during your attack phase, attack for 8-9, then cause a lifeloss of 6. Turn 3-4, that's game, and it's at no expense to your graveyard.

-hq

[dicemanx]

3. I wouldn't say that Chain is more versitle... esp because DSC doesn't matter.  We have beaten many turn 2 Tinkers with basically no problems.  Nothing can really compeat with Grudge + charm (takeing up 7 spots).

I wasn't necessarily thinking of just DSC - I was thinking of having a way to deal with artifacts (Needle, Crypt), Creatures (Wretch, Grunt, DSC)  and enchantments (Leyline) in one card. You're not always going to know what your opponent is SBing in as far as hate goes game 2, and boarding in some CoVs is more efficient than having to add both Grudges and Charms because you don't want to get caught. Plus, I appreciate that Tinker-DSC isn't that threatening vs your fast combo, but Tinker + graveyard hate might pose a bigger challenge.

1. I think that Imp is probably not nessisary.  Its actaully not that hard to beat a turn 1 Pithing Needle.  Infact I was able to beat a turn 1 needle against Outlaw in my first round.  Granted it took several turns of him drawing garbage in order to do so.. but still.

But its almost inevitable that situations will come up where Needle proves too difficult to defeat - perhaps next time your opponent will draw better quality cards after playing Needle? It seems that you have the SB space, with possibly more space opening up if Leylines are played main as a meta call. I just like the idea of having a range of outs.

[cssamerican]

I am not sold on Pithing Needle not being a problem. I think you have been lucky or just haven’t run into with enough frequency to bother with it. It seems to me like it would be a major threat to this deck turn 1, especially when you are on the draw. It is going to force you to do nothing turn one so you can discard to set-up your one dredge-a-turn engine. I am not sure how fast this deck can turn this type of situation around, it seems to me like an auto-loss in most cases. With more conventional builds you had the ability to cast a draw spell and explode even if you lost the Bazaar engine. At the very least you were able to drop an Imp to give yourself a little breathing room in these situations so you could start playing your disruption as early as possible, but here you don’t. What happens on the play if you use your Bazaar to draw two and discard some dredge spells and it gets wasted or needled before you get another activation? Once again you are in a slow start situation that you don’t seem quite prepared for because you have no way to dredge more than once a turn.

My version is much closer to policehq. The difference being I am running the rainbow lands with the following changes:
-Imperial Seal
-Vampiric Tutor
-Black Lotus
-Chrome Mox
+3 Careful Study
+1 Ancestral Recall

[nataz]

I think if you aren't running the shadows, you defiantly want to run laq over the big dude/dragons breath combo. The reason being that w/o shadows, you are almost always sac'ing 9 power, which really doesn't speed the clock up that much. With shadows, you will find your self sac'ing far fewer power on average, which makes it more worthwhile.

Also, I'll go on record as endorsing a 5 color base even if it's just to hard cast a grudge/wedge in chains in the SB.

The interesting thing is, with the induction of dread return there are now three distinctly different ichorid archetypes. We have the manaless ichorid list*, the more classic p-imp list, and this new hybrid deck.

All three of them play the same 24 core cards:

4x Bazaar of Baghdad
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Golgari Grave-Troll
4x Ichorid
4x Stinkweed Imp

but have an amazing 36 slots to work from after that. I've seen unmask, serum powder, leyline, ashen, putrid imps, neither shadows, chain of vapors, ancient grudges, careful studies, brainstorms, petrified fields, dread return, yosei, symbiotic wurm, 7/10, laq champion, dragons breath, breakthough, wasteland, etc, ad infinitum. There is a lot of unexplored space here, and I'm really interested to see where it ends up.

In fact I was able to beat a turn 1 needle against Outlaw in my first round.  Granted it took several turns of him drawing garbage in order to do so.. but still.

Ha, come on. I was standing behind Speed and he was screwed no matter what. He mulled down to like 5, and ended up keeping a 1 land/1 brainstrom/1 pithing needle hand, and proceeded to draw into drains and moxen (against your chalice*ouch*) Sure, he had the needle, but he also had terrible luck. That’s not a very good test case. He may have had the needle, but that’s like the only relevant thing he did the entire game.  

Anyway, congrats on the great results on an interesting new deck. It was nice to meet you guys at myriad, keep up the good work.

-peace,
carter

* for reference a manless list from the SCG

Manaless Ichorid

// Core 48 - This Does Not Change
4x Bazaar of Baghdad
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Gigapede
4x Golgari Grave-Troll
4x Golgari Thug
4x Ichorid
4x Leyline of the Void
4x Nether Shadow
4x Serum Powder
4x Stinkweed Imp
4x Unmask

// Bonus Lands (5 Lands)
1x Strip Mine
1x Maze of Ith orPetrified Field
3x Petrified Field

// Bonus Combo (Dread Return + 4 Pieces)
3x Dread Return
2x Sutured Ghoul or Yosei, the Morning Star
2x Dragon Breath or Symbiotic Wurm

// Sideboard (This is my latest concoction after scrapping gemstone mine)
4x Pithing Needle
3x Ancient Grudge
3x Ray of Revelation
3x Riftstone Portal
2x Sutured Ghoul or Yosei, the Morning Star (Whichever isn't maindeck)

[Outlaw]

In fact I was able to beat a turn 1 needle against Outlaw in my first round.  Granted it took several turns of him drawing garbage in order to do so.. but still.

But you do remember game 2 where I dropped a turn 1 needle and you did nothing correct? Game 3 is where you went first and activated bazaar and then I needled..  There is a HUGE difference here.

[meadbert]

I wrote a computer program to do 100k simulations and the probability of not drawing Bazaar is 5.9% which is very real.  If you play 8 rounds in of a tournament you should have 1-2 autolosses due to mulliganing.  It is significantly worse than 1.5% anyway.

[TimeWizzle]

"Of all the characters on Seasame Street, which would you not want to get in a fight with the most?

I'd have to say Snuffleluffagus would be way worse.  He's a freakin mammoth for crying out loud!  And he seems to be pretty stoned all the time, which while it would reduce his reflexes and agility, probably makes him nearly immune to pain.  He'd use his trunk like a boa constrictor and squeeze the cookies out of cookie monster.  Or just sit on him, Yokozuna style.

Inappropriate content for Vintage Open.
- Bram

[meadbert]

I have tested Cookie Monster light decks ever since the tournament report.

I immediately hated the fat creatures as they did not do enough.  I also did not like the vulnerability to wasteland.

Gigapede seemed an obvious answer to two problems.  First he is great against Wasteland since he becomes Grave-Trolls 5-8.  Second he can be eaten by the monster to help feed a huge Ghoul.

Duress was good, but not worth the slot.  Turn 1 I want to drop Bazaar and turn 2 Duress is not nearly as powerful as turn 1 duress since you lose the option of snagging Black Lotus or a mox to mana shaft your opponent.  I read in the tournament report where Duress was always boarded in.  I think that was wrong several times.  In particular, I believe it is better to board in Leyline versus Grim Long.

I think 4 Ashen Ghouls is too many.  It might make sense if Bazaar is wasted but certainly when you are trying to win on turn 3 you only need to see 1 Ashen Ghoul in your first 30-40 cards so really 2 Ashen Ghouls are all that is needed.

I wanted Golgari Thug for dredging and to RFG for Ichorid.  I ran only 1 Darkblast.  I could see dropping Thugs for Darkblasts.

I ran 6 mana lands (4 Gemstone Mine, 2 Bayou) because six maximizes the probability of having exactly 1 in your opponent hand.

I have not tested Chrome Mox yet.

Emerald Charm is amazing in that it fixes a fundamental problem of Ray.  I almost never expect Leyline so when I see it boarded in game 2 it is too late.  Emerald Charm has a second use so you can board it in even when you only suspect your opponent might have Leyline or Planar Void.

[Moxlotus]

Pitch Long --
I would say that Pitchlong is a better matchup than Grimlong simply because they sacrifice speed for stability.  That 1-2 Turn Extra is enough for you to generally race Pitchlong even with only one piece of disruption.  I have not tested this match very much, so Its hard to really comment on if the match is Fair, or Un-favorable. 
Post Board: 4 Leyline, 4 Duress.  with Darkblast and some creatures out.
In my experience Pitch Long generally has access to tons of Artifact Bounce (Hurk's and Rebuild) but limited Enchantment bounce namely Chain of Vapor.  They also may have a more difficult time winning via Mind's Desire because they don't have Wheel, Regrowth, etc.  But they can race you, so maybe this match should be in the "unfavorable" catagory.  Admitily more testing is needed for this match-up.

Ok, I followed everything until this.  PL does not take 1-2 turns longer to kill than Grim Long.  I really don't know why anybody thinks this.  The deck loses 1 business spell--Wheel of Fortune.  That's it.  Regrowth doesn't count.  The deck GAINS speed by not wasting a turn spending mana on duress.  The deck has the extra ability to slowplay better than Grim Long to abuse BS/fetchland, but it is just as fast as 5c Grim long.  I know this isn't a main point of your thread, but this seems to be a common misconception and I'm not sure why it is now conventional wisdom.  The only difference between the 2 decks is PL doesn't lose to wasteland, has the ability to slowplay if necessary, and has a harder time against decks with a dozen counters.

It is not more difficult to win with Desire without Regrowth and Wheel.  You would never be casting Regrowth the same turn as Desire and rarely do you draw 7 into a bunch of mana for Desire.  Desire is a play you take a turn or 2 to set up using black and blue spells.

[meadbert]

In my experience the Long matchup is favorable in general when you have 4x Leyline of the Void.  I would say that Grim Long is more favorable than Pitch Long since Duress is pretty pointless against Ichorid while Force and MisD can hose a Dread Return.

Still the fact that Leyline comes down on turn 0 and is not counterable makes it a nuicance for Pitch Long.  Long can play around it for sure but many a turn 2 win becomes a turn 3 lose thanks to Leyline and that is enough to make a huge difference. 

[nataz]

I'd have to say Snuffleluffagus would be way worse...He'd use his trunk like a boa constrictor and squeeze the cookies out of cookie monster. 

An elephant and a naked man are standing next to each other in a room. The elephant looks at the man and says. "sure, it looks cute and all, but can you breath though it?" Cha-ching!


On the issue of big men(tm) in the deck:
I have to say that I like them. It allows for you to have a non-huge graveyard, and still produce massive swingy monsters with little actual investment. You don't have to have 6-8 critters in the gy to produce a 20/20, you just have to have like 4. Further more, STP/bounce my ghoul, sure whatever. I'll just attack you next turn with my 3 ichorids that I didn't eat. While the difference in power has come up a few times, I feel like I would rather have 2 strosis(sp?) then the cloudscraper b/c you can pitch it to unmask and chrome mox, and  you can feed it to an ichorid. On top of all that, it has a doable upkeep cost if you actually want to keep it around for more then a turn.

Gigapede also seems like a good idea, too bad he isn't back or I would play him in a heartbeat.

on Chain v. Charm:
Things I've chained include: Tormods Crypt, DSC, Leyline of the Void, Dragon, Joten Grunt, Big Juggs and other aggro artifact threats, trike, COW, Eon Hub (once!), Caltrops. Of all of those, only Hub(doesn't really matter), Dragon, and Grunt can't be hit by some combonation of grudge + charm. I'm still not sure on which is better. Chain takes up less spots, and can hit anything under the sun, but charm and grudge are almost never dead in your hand. Not sure which one is better.

[brianpk80]

Harlequin,

Real nice work with the deck and a very good post with a lot of content.  Out of curiosity, have you ever tested this against someone running a maindeck or sideboard Maze of Ith?  I can see how you have many ways to work around Maze, but the reason I ask is because I have a revived interest in that land and wonder if the time is ripe for its comeback. 

Thanks for the good read,

-Brian 

[policehq]

Just a question about your game-play, not necessarily the deck:

Do you seriously remove enough creatures in your graveyard from the game to make the Sutured Ghoul power 30+? That seems very dangerous, and like you're spending too much time in "ooh cool thing" mode.

I mean, sometimes on turn 3 after I cast one or two Cabal Therapies, sacrificing Ichorids and Ashen Ghouls with the decklist above, I find that Dread Return isn't necessary for turn 4. The guys are coming back and often swinging for lethal. I have Laquatus's Champion against decks that have blockers, but usually blockers means U/W Fish, and if you encounter a Swords to Plowshares or bounce spell against Sutured Ghoul, especially the way you're playing it (removing all your creatures from the game), you will be decked and lose.

Then also I find that turn 3 Golgari Grave-Troll is absolutely necessary some games, when the opponent has Tinkered a Darksteel Colossus, and I need something to block that can regenerate or has a toughness (and thus power) greater than 11.

I'm just not really seeing any competitive theory behind Sutured Ghoul, and I have tested the following creatures for Dread Return Ichorid:
Laquatus's Champion
Kokusho, the Morning Star
Yosei, the Morning Star
Angel of Despair
Akroma, Angel of Wrath
Spirit of Night
Kuro, Pitlord
Nicol Bolas
Sutured Ghoul
Mindslicer
etc. etc.
(Yes, I'm obsessed.)

I just can't possibly see how come into play during your second main phase and opponent loses six life, at NO EXPENSE to your most important resource the graveyard, can be beaten.

I've even played plenty of decks that include Nether Shadow (I think cssamerican saw one of my earlier lists), and I can say the life-swing minus the drawback of removing your threats is positively significant.

I also don't think your street testing and team testing is substantial if you don't find a need for Putrid Imp and tutors to lessen mulligans and your vulnerability as well as increase the speed of your deck (Mox Jet/Black Lotus/Lotus Petal/Chrome Mox + Putrid Imp turn 1 + Bazaar of Baghdad = turn 3 win usually).

-hq

EDIT: I do want to say if anyone is considering Sutured Ghoul AND Gigapede, please play Grave-Shell Scarab. It is an excellent replacement, being black, having (minute) Dredge, and a pretty good power/toughness.

[Harlequin]

Ok, lets see If I can answer all this..

@ Beating Outlaw and/or Needle.  Luck or not, I faced 2 games in a row with turn 1 needle.  I'm not sure what your 7 and 6 hands looked like, but I assumed you were agressivly mulliganing down to Needle or a fast win.  You could have had crap 7 and 6 hands, and then sure, I was lucky...
Also I'll say that after 3ish turns of dredging, I had about 18-24 cards in my library 3 of which were ancient grudges.  The point is that you don't nessisarily need to do the Golgari EOT discard every turn until you win .. just every turn until you find a grudge or 2.  Also I was able to win numerous games in the face of turn 1 waste/strip leaving me Bazaarless. 

@ 5.9% Chance to not find bazaar, and 1-2 autolosses in 8 rounds.   All I can say is that in 15 rounds we have not had it happen once.  And in countless rounds of testing is has happened twice.  So, maybe where lucky?  I'm not sure what else to say.  The 1.5% is a very rough estimate based on simplifications, I wouldn't call it a "True Probability" no more then I would call 5.9% a true probability.

@ Snuffleluffagus.  I don't know.  He seems too strung out to really be a threat.  Just jingle your car keys and pretend to throw them... problem solved.

@ Gigipede.  I'll admit we never really considered him.  But I can see how he would be a valuable answer to needle/Waste.  Maybe in Life from the loam's spot (which has ben less than good).

@ Mox Lotus.... I knew as soon as I wrote Pitch long in It was going to make some ppl all sorts of upset.  I'm gunna put it this way... there has to be some differance between Grim Long and Pitch long.  If Pitch Long is faster, more resiliant, and tastes better on toast... then why does Grim long even exsist?  ya know what, forget it.  Put Pitch long into a 4th catagory of "auto-scoop" because aparently it has no weaknesses.

@ Maze of Ith.  Just be Ichorid at that point.  There's no real shame in beating face with 3/1's and 1/1's.  If it fish packing Maze or they have colossus AND maze thats a general GG.  The deck did sport Pithing Needles for a while, but they were ultimately cut for Life From the Loams... which again might be getting the ax in the near future.

@ Going off and Removinging 30+ power of creatures.  Well yes and no.  sometimes this deck wins big.  Where you return 5 creatures, double therepy, and then dread return.  Then feel free to go hog wild.  If not then removeing enough for a kill + some buffer zone (you dont want to have to go another turn because of darkblast) is most likely the right plan.  Honestly though, If I haven't seen there hand then swinging with ichorids and cabaling them is the play.  Looking at the turn break down for Ichorid in general you have:
Turn 1 - Play discard outlet (and disruption)
Turn 2 - upkeep is generally nothing; then GY goes to 10ish cards
Turn 3 - upkeep is generally 1-2 creatures; cabal once GY is about 20-40 cards
Turn 4 - upkeep * return what you've got 4-6 guys
  -- traditional Ichorid needs to connect with 5 guys on turn 4 to win.  That means you need at least 1 ashen goul, but probably 2.
  -- or cabal once and cast Dread Return and generally win.

In traditional Ichorid The GY on turn 2 and 3 can be weaker if your discard outlet was not bazaar.  Also without nether shadow the number of creatures traditional ichorid gets on turn 4 is usualy not going to be 6 (where with nether shadows its fairly easy).

By adding putrid goul, your not simply adding 4 cards (and taking out say... dragons breath and meat creatures).  becuase in your example you have listed Lotus, and Lotus Petal (and you probably run 8 manalands).  Putrid Imp is simply impractical to run on 6+2 mana in my oppinon.  I don't see how  artifact mana + Putrid + Bazaar = Turn 3 is better than Unmask + chalice + Bazaar = turn 4.   If were talking combo Turn 3 with no disruption is not as good as turn 4 with heavy disruption.

Also Laquatus can't win the game through Colosus.  Even a 15/15 Gogari doesn't win the game through colossus... but the Ghoul has that unique capability.

[Glix]

The thing is, by the time you reanimated Ghoul you (should) have already cast therapy a few times, and maybe even a duress or unmask.  In that manner, your opponanat will not have an answer to said ghoul, and you give them no time to find that answer.  When you reanimate champion you run that risk.  It takes you time to win, you can't win through colossus, and it's just riskier.  I would think that even Strossus is better than champion as it does its damage quickly, your opponant doesnt get the life back, and the regeneration abilitiy is easier to pay.  Ghoul may eat unneccessary slots, but I have to admit that it wins NOW.

You could consider running Petrified Field or something, as Bazaar is so integral, and you really don't want to lose it, I would think.

Something I was thinking about, would this be the deck for Gemstone Caverns?  You mulligan in such a way that if the card isn't in your opening hand it doesn't matter.  Caverns could function as chrome mox 2, perhaps.

[cssamerican]

Where you return 5 creatures, double therepy, and then dread return.  Then feel free to go hog wild.  If not then removeing enough for a kill + some buffer zone (you dont want to have to go another turn because of darkblast) is most likely the right plan.  Honestly though, If I haven't seen there hand then swinging with ichorids and cabaling them is the play.  Looking at the turn break down for Ichorid in general you have:
Turn 1 - Play discard outlet (and disruption)
Turn 2 - upkeep is generally nothing; then GY goes to 10ish cards
Turn 3 - upkeep is generally 1-2 creatures; cabal once GY is about 20-40 cards
Turn 4 - upkeep * return what you've got 4-6 guys
  -- traditional Ichorid needs to connect with 5 guys on turn 4 to win.  That means you need at least 1 ashen goul, but probably 2.
  -- or cabal once and cast Dread Return and generally win.

Also Laquatus can't win the game through Colosus.  Even a 15/15 Gogari doesn't win the game through colossus... but the Ghoul has that unique capability.

The thing is, by the time you reanimated Ghoul you (should) have already cast therapy a few times, and maybe even a duress or unmask.  In that manner, your opponanat will not have an answer to said ghoul, and you give them no time to find that answer.  When you reanimate champion you run that risk.  It takes you time to win, you can't win through colossus, and it's just riskier.  I would think that even Strossus is better than champion as it does its damage quickly, your opponant doesnt get the life back, and the regeneration abilitiy is easier to pay.  Ghoul may eat unneccessary slots, but I have to admit that it wins NOW.

With Laquatus's Champion most cases you will only need to bring back 3 creatures. In cases involving Mana Drain would be the only times in which I would be hesitant in flashing back a Dread Returns blind, and even then that would be dependent on my perception of the game state. With the Ghoul you have to sacrifice potential damage you already have on the board, so things like Force of Will, Daze, and bounce could be devastating tempo wise, so you almost always have to ensure you rip your opponent’s hand apart prior to your Dread Return. With Laquatus's Champion none of that stuff matters because you haven’t done anything that could effect your tempo in a negative fashion. You have already done the damage, your creatures were already going to leave play, and you spent no mana in your attempt at extra damage. If they do happen to have a way to survive the damage and remove it your only lose is a black creature that could have been removed to fuel an Ichorid returning to play the following turn.

If you animate one Ichorid turn three, and two Ichorids and an Ashen Ghoul turn four. You can then return the Champion on your second mainphase, which would put them at two life. I think this is a pretty conservative outcome that everyone could agree is extremely likely to happen in actual game play. Obviously leaving your opponent with two life isn’t perfect, but in most cases they will do that damage to themselves, or it is very possible you do two additional damage in the first four turns.

I still fail to see how the Champion route is significantly inferior to the Ghoul route when trying to beat a DSC on the board. I attack with a bunch of creatures DSC can only block one, and then I can do extra six points of damage to the dome if I want to with the Champion. With the Ghoul route you going to need to have played a couple of Therapies prior any way, so I think is safe to assume in most cases your opponent will be below twenty life. Three creatures swinging through and Champion is 15 damage points.

I am not saying that the Ghoul route is definitely inferior to the Champion, time, testing, and tournament data will bear that truth out over time. However, I don’t think the rare occasions you guys have pointed out so far out weighs the fact that the Ghoul route takes several more slots within the deck, which limit the decks ability to play around hate cards.

All that being said, this the best Sutured Ghoul deck I have seen. So, if it does turn out that Sutured Ghoul is the better way to go than I am sure this deck will be the foundation that it is built on. Good Job.

[policehq]

Laquatus very much CAN win the game through DSC, and has on occasion, since DSC's blocking is insignificant to direct loss of life and 3-4 3/1's attacking. Golgari Grave-Troll can block without spending your resources, and he's already in your deck. If you pull out a Sutured Ghoul for defensive purposes, you don't have an offense.

Our kill speeds are the same, finishing with protected turn 4 wins and potential turn 3 wins. I don't get any argument against Putrid Imp. If your six lands and two artifact mana aren't cutting it for an early Putrid Imp, Ashen Ghoul has to be difficult as well.

RE: Glix, Harlequin about Ghoul winning "now" on turn 4.

You don't need to attack for THIRTY to win on turn 4, especially after getting through Cabal Therapies. Often you can attack for 3 on turn 2 and 9 on turn 3 (8 life). Obviously if you can attack for 9 on turn 3, you can do the same or more on turn 4. Thus, as I said, the combo often isn't needed at all, but it can win the game a turn sooner, and at absolutely no risk to my graveyard or gamestate.

Glix, I've never had situations where Laquatus's Champion hangs around for a second turn to attack. I bring him in, and they're dead. That's that. His reanimation and Strossus's reanimation are completely irrelevant.

Yes, Sutured Ghoul wins NOW, but what about "when 'this' comes into play" isn't now?

Also we haven't really addressed the fact that Sutured Ghoul takes away slots from your mana-base and maindeck Leyline of the Void (and thus 4 sideboard answers as well), or maindeck Duress if that's your priority.

Gemstone Caverns is better in a deck with Putrid Imps but even then it's counterintuitive, when Putrid Imp might be the only expendable card in your hand.

-hq

[meadbert]

I believe there is a difference in speed.  Both decks have protected turn 4 wins and potential turn 3 wins but Sutured Ghoul lists and this one in particular have a very high probability of goldfishing on turn 3.  I think this is well over 60%.  Your list without Ghoul is probably more like 20% I would imagine although that number is completely made up since I have not tested your lists enough to say.

I still like Champion since he is big, black and has a great comes into play ability.  The creatues with "leaves play" abilities are not good enough because you might not have Therapy.  This is why I do not like Yosei, Kokushu or Symbiotic Wurm.

[policehq]

Yes, and a turn 3 win is quite probable also with Hermit Druid Sutured Ghoul combo decks, but that strategy is not viable. The better plan, even with Sutured Ghoul in this deck, is to Cabal Therapy their hand two or three times on turn 3, whether you can cast Dread Return or not, so you don't lose to ANY answer the opponent might have or sacrifice an important attack phase to a counter.

By the time you've disrupted your opponent's resources turn 3, Sutured Ghoul is overkill on turn 4 (Turn 4, Ichorids and Ashen Ghouls could possibly get the job done on their own), at the expense of 8 cards in your deck and a higher weakness to an opponent's disruption.

I don't understand the merit of arguing any decks' goldfishing capabilities since goldfishing doesn't accomplish anything in a tournament.

EDIT: Gemstone Caverns. It's actually really hot. Hardcasting Ancient Grudge, if needed, and being able to play a first turn Putrid Imp/Tutor/Cabal Therapy + Bazaar of Baghdad (especially when Putrid Imp can discard a Dredge creature) is an amazing boost in speed. I'm testing 4 right now, but I think that may be too many.

-hq

[meadbert]

The most insane abuse of Gemstone Caverns is this:

Turn 0 Gemstone Caverns.  Opponents turn 1 Crop Rotation for Bazaar and pitch a dredger.
Turn 1.  Bazaar during upkeep Dredgeing a ton.  Dredge for draw phase.  Play Bazaar and massive dredge more.

Doing this you can put something like 30 cards in your graveyard on turn 1.  It is rare to pull off since you need Gemstone Caverns, Bazaar and Crop Rotation.

Other options are turn 0 vamp for Bazaar so you have a turn 1 Bazaar.

Gemstone Caverns into Gamble for Bazaar.  Then play Bazaar.  Gambling for Chalice is less useful since you are on the play.

I see Gemstone Caverns as a potentially useful sideboard card in any version of Ichorid that wants to try to abuse tutors.

I do not see Gemstone Caverns as right for this deck.  You only get one use out of it so it becomes worse than Lotus Petal.  Considering that neither Petal nor Black Lotus are in the list Gemstone Caverns does not come close.

[policehq]

If Gemstone Caverns is in your opening hand and you're not playing first, you may begin the game with Gemstone Caverns in play with a luck counter on it. If you do, remove a card in your hand from the game.
T: Add 1 to your mana pool. If Gemstone Caverns has a luck counter on it, instead add one mana of any color to your mana pool.

You don't remove the luck counter to add mana of any color. It really is like Chrome Mox 2-X. It can add to the broken turn 0/1 plays and throughout the game be used to recur Ashen Ghouls, cast Cabal Therapy, Emerald Charm, etc. etc.

-hq

[ELD]

I wrote a computer program to do 100k simulations and the probability of not drawing Bazaar is 5.9% which is very real.  If you play 8 rounds in of a tournament you should have 1-2 autolosses due to mulliganing.  It is significantly worse than 1.5% anyway.

I've been casually testing with Serum Powder since it was printed.  Starting with an essential 4 off every game is an interesting concept.  First during Workshop/3sphere days, and most recently for Leyline/Bazaar.  While it does work out most of the time, it's never been worth it for me to take to a tournament.  In the hundreds (maybe thousands) of opening hands I've had, there have been a boat load of hands where it doesn't play out as planned.  The 5.9% feels about right, and for me kind of failure is acceptable. 

I think an interesting question would to break down the best choices in regards to opening hands with Tutors.  I've always viewed the concept as casual, so I never really put major effort into this aspect.  If I mull to 1 on MWS who cares.  In a tournament it's a different story.  Vs a deck w/o Force of Will, would it be better to Mull to 4, or keep a grip of 5 with Vampiric Tutor and a land for instance.  How about vs a deck w/Force of Will: a hand with Serum Powder, Unmask, BLACK CARD, Land, Vamp, IRRELEVANT, IRRELEVANT.  Is it better to go for 7 fresh ones with the 4 bazaars left in a 53 card deck, or a turn 2 bazaar with disruption.  It would seem to me that Vamping for a Bazaar when on the draw is way to slow regardless of the disruption.  Is that the case when on the play?