Six of One, Half Dozen of the Other

[Smmenen]

FYI, the last time we had decklists for every single deck in a waterbury:

http://sales.starcitygames.com/deckdatabase/deckshow.php?&t[C1]=vin&start_date=2006-07-23&end_date=2006-07-30

12 of the top 25 decklists were 4 Mana Drain decks.    But only 44 out of 147 decks were Mana Drain decks.

There is a perception -- particularly one of the New England metagame, that it is a heavy Mana Drain environment.   There is a further perception, one that Purplehat suggested in a thread in the Open forum, that even where Mana Drain decks appear to be dominant, that this could just be because they are played so much.  In other words, they are just performing in top 8 according to their representation in the field.   

Mana Drain decks made up 29.9% of the field, including Gifts decks, Control Slaver, Bomberman, Oath, etc.
However, they made up 48% of the top 25, and 37.5% of the top 16.   Granted, in this data set they made up only a 4th of the Top 8 (although if we extend our count to decks that include at least 2 Mana Drains, they made up half the top 8). 

Interesting stuff.   I wish SCG still published decklists for every person in SCG and Waterburies.   Ray, if you are reading this, I am planning on attending the waterbury, and would be HAPPY to type up every decklist for you.   

[Smmenen]

As an addendum, anyone looking at those results can come to some very clear conclusions.   Risky combo decks and budget aggro decks cluster towards the bottom third, and partcuarly, oddly enough, on page 5, which is decks 101-125.    Aggro control decks cluster towards the top.    There is a fat vein of Mana Drain decks just below the top performing decks and another smack dab in the middle of the tournament results.   I really think Grow -- even neutered - is an excellent choice for the Waterbury. 

[iamfishman]

Interesting stuff.   I wish SCG still published decklists for every person in SCG and Waterburies.   Ray, if you are reading this, I am planning on attending the waterbury, and would be HAPPY to type up every decklist for you.   

#1...I'm psyched you are coming to Waterbury.  The presence of name players adds to the already present legitimacy of the events.

#2...I'm psyched that you wouldn't mind typing up those lists.  I think it is great to have the data out there, but I am just always so super swamped with stuff.

#3...I'm psyched about the GP(I'm leaving at 6am tomorrow morn).  I'll probably see you there and share all this with you since you might not see this post by then.  Also...I'm psyched that I also have two byes(1955 total, 1893 Eternal)

I guess if I had to give one word to describe my emotional state right now..."psyched" would be that word.

[wiley]

268 out of 1228 is nothing to sneeze at.  As a sneak peak would you mind telling us what the (I'm assuming) unintentional draw at the end of day 1 was to?

Also, though I hate playing it, I am looking forward to the TPS article.

[Smmenen]

Ray and I had an awesome time in Chicago.

So ray, we have "Squeeze" and "Queue" for Chapin's challenge.     I thought of Queue, and Ray came up with Squeeze.    We need three more? 

Ray: what did you draft in that type four game?   Did Chapin or Demars win?

[Smmenen]

Courtesy of a friend!

Front:
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/560/dsc00569svn.jpg

Back:

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/5017/dsc00568c.jpg

Pretty cool, huh!

That card is good!

[Mr. Nightmare]

Steve - Good seeing you last weekend.  Good GOD that Asian chick was a hottie.

[Mr. Type 4]

Good GOD that Asian chick was a hottie.

I know, who was she? A definite 9-10 is pretty rare around the tournament scene. There was also a particularly attractive female drafting and wearing a shirt with some Greek letters.  She seemed to be drafting competantly, which only made her hotter. 

I'm also psyched about Waterbury. 

[iamfishman]

Ray and I had an awesome time in Chicago.

So ray, we have "Squeeze" and "Queue" for Chapin's challenge.     I thought of Queue, and Ray came up with Squeeze.    We need three more? 

Ray: what did you draft in that type four game?   Did Chapin or Demars win?

For those not aware of what Steve is talking about...

Late night drinking in the lobby of the hotel at GP: Chicago engaged a number of us (Steve, Chapin, Demars, Trogdon, Yang, Trogdon's really cool friend who always wears the Goblin Charbelcher shirt whose name I can't recall right now) in a competition of brain puzzles and such. 

One such puzzle involved finding 5 monosyllabic words that when taken in total, had the most vowels.  We came up with many threes, like Queen or Freeze, however we quickly realized the bar would need to be set at 4 per word.  Steve came up with Queue and on my drive home I thought of Squeeze.

Anyone who can think of another can chime in here HOWEVER...DO NOT USE GOOGLE OR SOME OTHER CHEESY TECHNIQUE.  The integrity of the game lies in people really racking their brain for the answers.

Oh...and I was so drunk at that point I have no idea who won the Type 4 game.

[Harlequin]

Neat puzzel.  In the shower I just thought of Squirreled.  I'm not really sure if a) a real word, and b) one syllabol.

[Godder]

Queered, squealed, queened.

[Matt]

Queered, squealed, queened.

queued

[Godder]

Queered, squealed, queened.

queued

Of course, but if they had already come up with queue, queues and queued aren't far behind. Squeeze and squeezed, too.

[Smmenen]

From the Vault: Exile - First Impressions

Yesterday, Wizards announced another special collector's reprint set.   Here are my reactions. 

First of all, the logo.



By now, everyone knows that Magic is getting a minor revamp this summer.   I think this set confirms that "Exile" is likely to be the official name of the "removed from game" zone.   The logo for this collector's set reflects that designation, is an arrow that points into the direction in which most players put their RFG cards, above and a little bit beyond the library and graveyard.

Secondly, here is the blurb describing this set:

It is said there were once fifteen Magic: The Gathering cards so potent, they were banned or restricted from the known realms of competition. But in the years that have passed, the game has evolved and these elder cards are once again in play. Master these weapons from ages past and give your opponent a beating of historic proportions.

Third, here are some facts about What we know:

1) Each of the 15 cards in the set are cards that were banned or restricted in a sanctioned format.

Wizards has given an incomplete and inaccurate list of cards that have been banned or restricted:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/arcana/149

Although that list is incomplete, I think it's safe to say that the cards in Exile are probably on this list, otherwise Wizards would have caught it.  That excludes cards that Kaztby identified such as Juggernaut and Hymn to Tourach.   Too bad.  Also, the list includes cards that have never been banned, but have been restricted. 

This list must exclude cards that are on the reprint list:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/TCG/Article.aspx?x=magic/products/reprintpolicy

2) These cards are historical, which I think suggests that none of them are from the most recent set(s).

3) "Weapons" may be a clue. 

4) Balance is in the set.

http://www.wizards.com/mtg/images/daily/arcana/148_9vsjv6go.jpg

That is obviously art for Balance

5) I also believe that Goblin Lackey is in the set. 

That leaves 13 cards.

What other clues do we have?

6) Let's take a look at the breakdown of sets in the previous "From the Vault" Set:

Shivan Dragon: Alpha (1993)

Dragon Whelp: Alpha (1993)

Nicol Bolas: Legends (1994)

Ebon Dragon: Portal I (1997)

Thunder Dragon: Starter 1999 (1999)

Two-Headed Dragon: Mercadian Masques (1999)

Rith, the Awakener: Invasion (2000)

Draco: Planeshift (2001)

Bladewing the Risen: Scourge (2003)

Dragonstorm: Scourge (2003)

Form of the Dragon: Scourge (2003)

Kokusho, the Evening Star: Champions of Kamigawa (2004)

Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind: Guildpact (2006)

Bogarden Hellkite: Time Spiral (2006)

Hellkite Overlord: Shards of Alara (2008)

What does this breakdown tell us, factually?

A) They printed cards from a wide variety of years, but did not intend a specific representation from any given block or set.   

B) They pulled cards based on flavor as much as anything else, as Scourge got three very different cards reprinted in the set.

C) This also tells us that they are looking for cards that players will find popular and interesting. 

D) They printed cards from Starter AND Portal, indicating a willingness to do both. 

Those are the facts.   Now we enter the realm of speculation based upon what we know. 

Fourth: Speculation

We know that Balance: Alpha (1993) and Goblin Lackey: Urza's Saga (1998) are in the set. 

1) Cards I think we can safely eliminate:

A) Dark Ritual, since it is being reprinted in Foil as a Judges Rare, same goes for Rukh Egg, Hippie, Chrome Mox and Kird Ape which have all just been reprinted.   
B) The cycle of Artifacts Lands, since they are very lame printings for a set like this.
C) Any cards for Ante, since that is a part of the game that they don't want to bring back ever.

That leaves, by my count, 59 possible cards, two of which we know.  So for 13 possible slots, that is 57 cards.

2) What cards that have historically been banned most fit the description of "weapons", but that are not on the reserved list?

Doomsday: Weatherlight (1997)
Slullclamp: Darksteel  (2004)
Orcish Oriflamme: Alpha (1993)'
Cursed Scroll: Tempest (1997)
Black Vise: Alpha (1993)
Icy Manipulator: Alpha (1993)

I think Doomsday and Skullclamp seem like perfect printings for this set for several reasons: first of all, they represent very different time periods.   Secondly, they seem like the kind of powerful card they want to reprint here, without printing things that have already seen reprint or are just annoying, like Necropotence or Mind Twist.  Had it not been on the reserved list, I would have thought that cards like Sword of Ages and Guantlet of Might would be perfect. 

3) I think there is a good chance that they want Vintage players to be interested in this by printing cards that we currentyl don't have in foil, but might want.    At first I thought that they wouldn't think of Voltaic Key, but Time Vault was fixed almost six months ago, giving them probably just enough lead time to put it in.   It also has alot of historical value in Kai's old Worlds deck, so it would fit nicely.   For similar reasons, Berserk would be throwing a bone to Legacy.   I also think there is a good chance that Imperial Seal will be printed here as well for Vintage.  They have been trying to figure out how to bring back I. Seal without putting it in Standard.  This is perfect.   



CONCLUSION

I think a likely list would be:

1) Balance: Alpha (1993)
2) Goblin Lackey: Urza's Saga (1998)
3) Doomsday: Weatherlight (1997)
4) Imperial Seal: Portal Three Kingdoms (1999)
5) Lotus Petal: Tempest (1997) OR Mana Crypt: Promo (1995)
6) Skullclamp: Darksteel (2003)
7) Voltaic Key: Urza's Saga (1998)
8) Berserk: Alpha (1993)
9) Burning Wish: Judgment (2002)
10) Maze of Ith:The Dark (1994) (such a historically popular card, would also represent the Dark)

I think those 9 are the most likely reprints.

I suspect they will print two cards from each color, 1-2 land, and 3-4 artifacts.

So, beyond that:

11) Channel OR Oath of Druids OR Hermit Druid OR Regrowth
12) Flash
13) Mystical Tutor OR Fact or Fiction OR Tinker OR Windfall
14) Enlightened Tutor (Or Lin-Sivvi OR Land Tax)
15) Strip Mine (because there is nothing from Antiquities) OR Zuran Orb (to get a card from Ice Age, from that era, that remains fun for casual players)

[Son of Serra]

Steve, I really enjoyed reading about your approach to logically deducing which cards will be in the new boxed set. One factor that you did not address though was the current secondary market prices of the possible cards in contention. Do you really think that they will reprint Imperial Seal in a boxed set that retails for $34.95? I am in favor of it, but skeptical!

[Troy_Costisick]

Cursed Scroll: Tempest (1997)

Incidentally, Cursed Scroll is on the Reserve List.  That doesn't change your judgements, which I find very compelling and reasonable for the most part.  I have doubts about Fact or Fiction since it was just reprinted in Jace vs. Chandra.  Regrowth was a Judge Foil, but that doesn't necessarily rule it out.  I think it's fits their description of the set being filled with cards that were powerful then but not so much now. 

So if your list comes (mostly) true, would you give it a thumbs up or thumbs down?  More importantly, what do you think the chances are that this set will encourage interest in the Vintage format?

Peace,

-Troy

[Smmenen]

Steve, I really enjoyed reading about your approach to logically deducing which cards will be in the new boxed set. One factor that you did not address though was the current secondary market prices of the possible cards in contention. Do you really think that they will reprint Imperial Seal in a boxed set that retails for $34.95? I am in favor of it, but skeptical!

It's unlikely that the price of the boxed set will remain at $35.   Pre-orders will do little too, since retailers will only receive a fraction of their orders, by design, to keep the prices of this set high. 

My recollection was that Wizards was interested in reprinting Imperial Seal, but they weren't sure how/when to do it.  This is the perfect opportunity. 

@Troy: I agree, Fact seems unlikely because they recently printed it.   I forgot about that.

 If they print Imperial Seal, then Mystical and E. Tutor also seem unlikely, so I'm not sure what the second blue spell might be.   Tinker or Windfall would be pretty much all that is left.   

[Matt]

The logo for this collector's set reflects that designation, is an arrow that points into the direction in which most players put their RFG cards, above and a little bit beyond the library and graveyard.

Curious! I usually put my library and graveyard (and RFG) to my left side.

What makes you so sure about Goblin Lackey?

[Troy_Costisick]

The logo for this collector's set reflects that designation, is an arrow that points into the direction in which most players put their RFG cards, above and a little bit beyond the library and graveyard.

Curious! I usually put my library and graveyard (and RFG) to my left side.

In my experience, players tend to put the RFP piles to the right so as to keep them distincly separate from the graveyard and library which I typically see on their left.  This ican be really important if you have face up and face down RFG piles.

[Matt]

The logo for this collector's set reflects that designation, is an arrow that points into the direction in which most players put their RFG cards, above and a little bit beyond the library and graveyard.

Curious! I usually put my library and graveyard (and RFG) to my left side.

In my experience, players tend to put the RFP piles to the right so as to keep them distincly separate from the graveyard and library which I typically see on their left.  This ican be really important if you have face up and face down RFG piles.

I usually put RFG cards on top of my deckbox. It really bugs me when people turn cards in their graveyard sideways to indicate RFG, it seems ripe for sleight of hand.

[Smmenen]

Dan Yarrington had a voice recorded set up during the Waterbury.   WOW!   I could use one of those so badly for my tournament reports.  Dan, if you are reading this, what kind of recorded was that, and where can I get one just like it? 

[Myriad Games]

Hi Steve,
   We picked up a Zoom H4 last year when we started working on our Myriad Games podcasts, and I've been very happy with it. If you're curious about sound quality, you can check out our shows through MyriadGames.com (just click on Shows in the upper right), or by searching for Myriad Games on iTunes (TMD fans check out the TempleCon show for an appearance by Dave F). All the shows that have been launched so far were recorded on the H4. You might also check out the Zoom H2 as a more affordable option. You should be able to pick them up through a variety of electronics dealers including BSW.

It takes a ton of time to do the editing to get actual audio programs up (about 4 times the length of the raw recording with all the post-production), but you can just use the recording as a reminder for writing tournament reports as well, in place of or in addition to paper notes. Due to my subpar Magic skills resulting in me throwing away at least one crucial game against Dredge, I missed the quarterfinals at the TMD Open, so I won't be investing the many hours of editing to create an audio tournament report. I was happy with how the system worked out and I'll continue to use it at future events. Who knows, if I actually do well enough at one, I may invest the time to get a full audio tournament report posted.

If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to ask.

Thanks for your continued coverage and support of Vintage. 

[Yare]

Why are you so sure about Goblin Lackey, Steve? I mean, my gut reaction was that Lackey was a really, really good choice for this set because it's tribal, fairly powerful, and just an all around cool and fun card. You just seem to be putting it awfully close to "certainty" rather than "strong hunch."

Since I probably have a better chance at predicting this than the NCAA tournament winners, my list consists of, in no particular order (and assuming that WotC's list is accurate as it is currently posted, even though I know it's not):

1. Balance (given)
2. Goblin Lackey (for the reasons articulated above)
3. Imperial Seal (if Wizards is going to do it, it's going to be now. I just don't see them passing on this opportunity).
4. Black Vise
5. Lotus Petal
6. Mana Crypt
7. Crop Rotation
8. Doomsday
9. Tinker
10. Oath of Druids
11. Berserk
12. Strip Mine
13. Mind Twist
14. Skullclamp
15. Land Tax

Comparing it to your list, I would say I don't know that I see Voltaic Key being in there, for whatever reason. Maze of Ith won't be in there because they just released a promo of it (though, I don't think you knew that when making your list). I like Land Tax over Enlightened Tutor because I think that Imperial Seal is going to close up the tutoring slot, though I do have Tinker listed also. I think Oath of Druids just blows the other three choices out of the water in terms of coolness, so I feel like they have to go with that. While I would like to see Mana Drain, and I think if WotC was going to do it it would be now, I don't think it's coming. Then again, times are tough in this economy and Mana Drain would definitely move boxes. I don't see Flash because I think it's just a little, I dunno, sort of just lame in general. It only combos with a handful of cards, so it just doesn't have that fun pizazz that a number of these other cards have. I think Crypt AND Petal are going to make it in (well, at least definitely crypt). I think Petal would be really cool in some premium foil, so I figure that will be in there too. I opted to include Black Vise and Crop Rotation for relatively weaker slots. I feel like WotC has to have something not just off the wall amazing in there (however you want to define "amazing), so those are my choices.

Personally, I'm really curious as to what they're ultimately going to print.

[Smmenen]

Here's what I played at the Waterbury:

Grow

4 Force of Will
3 Thoughtseize
3 Duress
3 Disrupt
2 Mana Drain
1 Misdirection
4 Dark Confidant
2 Tarmogoyf
1 Quirion Dryad
1 Tinker
1 Inkwell Leviathan
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Imperial Seal
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Echoing Truth
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Ponder
1 Brainstorm
1 Gush
4 Sleight of Hand
1 Yawgmoth’s Will
1 Regrowth
4 Underground Sea
2 Tropical Island
1 Island
4 Polluted Delta
3 Flooded Strand
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Black Lotus

Sideboard:
3 Island
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Rebuild
3 Yixlid Jailer
2 Pithing Needle
2 Tormod’s Crypt
2 Seal of Primoridum

I was the highest placing swiss player in the top 4, landing 3rd in the swiss as well. 

The tweaks I'd make to the deck are discussed in my article next Monday. 

[Troy_Costisick]

So how many games did you win because of playing Tinker?  That's what I'd really like to know unless it's something you plan to go really in-depth on in your article this Monday.

Peace,

-Troy

[Smmenen]

I'm not sure I can actually count the precise number, since it's hard to say what would have happened had I not been running Tinker + Leviathan.   I would say that Tinker contributed to at least a handful of game wins.

[Anusien]

I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on Dryad/Goyf.  It seems like one should just be better than the other, and it's a weird split.

Did the 1 Gush work out for you?  Before it came off the restricted list, people seemed very hesitant to run the singleton, saying it was not good enough without multiples.

I'm assuming you're going to talk about the more interesting cards like Disrupt and Imperial Seal.

Neat list by the way.  Glad to hear you had such success!

[Anusien]

I noted that you won a lot of your games at 1-6 life.  I agree that you probably want a few Tops.  You need to be careful there because it looks like you also did a fair amount of pumping Dryad or pitching Disrupt to Force.

I Duress him and see: Channel, Rite of Flame, Manamorphose, Memory Jar, and Belcher (I believe). I took Rite of Flame, which was the inverse of the last game, where I just took the business spells.

Do you consider taking Channel here?  If the board is literally just Lion's Eye Diamond and nothing else, if you take Rite of Flame, Nat needs to just draw any two mana sources and he can force you to use your Force on Channel.  If you take Channel, Nat has to draw an extra mana source in order to cast anything relevant.

[GrandpaBelcher]

I also would have taken Channel, just because it's a big threat (especially with both Belcher and Jar in hand) that is relatively easy to cast and defend.  Rite of Flame would have been second.  Mr. Smmenendian wasn't hurting for disruption, though, so it didn't matter too much, and taking any of Channel, Rite, or Manamorphose would have hampered me quite a bit.

My plan was actually to draw, in order, Chrome Mox, SSG, Guttural Response, Goblin Welder.  I think my actual draws included 2-3 Empty the Warrens and at least one more Charbelcher.  I would have been thrilled to draw any mana at all.

[Smmenen]

I received the entire batch of Waterbury decklists!   In the next few weeks I will type them all up.   The question is, how/where should I present them?  Should I do an article analyzing them?