[Premium Article] So Many Insane Plays - Vintage Metagame Report

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14605.html

I'm pretending to be Dr. Sylvan this week as I break down all of the major tournaments since the unrestriction of Gush and restriction of Gifts.    Who came out on top?  Clicky clicky!

Stephen

[Methuselahn]

It's nice to see Stanton style statistics again.  Including 32+ tournaments instead of 50 is a smart move and one that I pushed for back in the day.  You still don't get enough samples with 32+, but at least it's the right number.  Good jorb out there, Steve.

[Zherbus]

Yeah, seems like a better sampling. I did that back in the day.

[zeus-online]

So what was the result?

I'm guessing
GAT
Flash
...no idea

/Zeus

[Purple Hat]

I think one thing that's left out of this analysis is the proportion of gat/flash in the field.  if the field is 20%< gush based then 20% gush in top 8 isn't actually very impressive. 

[botb]

This metagame just seems so weird compared to what used to be. I can't find anyone who wants to really play CS, Oath, or Dragon anymore. Then again I live in Washington and our metagame is very janky.

[Implacable]

This metagame just seems so weird compared to what used to be. I can't find anyone who wants to really play CS, Oath, or Dragon anymore. Then again I live in Washington and our metagame is very janky.

At the latest Mirkwood tournament in Washington, the Top 8 was:

Flash
G.A.T.
G.A.T.
G.A.T.
Slaver
Flash
Stax
Goblins

Doesn't seem very janky to me.

[Moxlotus]

I think one thing that's left out of this analysis is the proportion of gat/flash in the field.  if the field is 20%< gush based then 20% gush in top 8 isn't actually very impressive. 

But then you get to a point where you have to ask "man, Gush must be really good if so many people are playing it--when is it too good?"

[MirariKnight]

I think one thing that's left out of this analysis is the proportion of gat/flash in the field.  if the field is 20%< gush based then 20% gush in top 8 isn't actually very impressive. 

But then you get to a point where you have to ask "man, Gush must be really good if so many people are playing it--when is it too good?"

You might be right but isn't the counter to that "if such a significant percentage less Gush decks make Top 8 as opposed to percentage in the metagame, maybe we're all overrating it."

I don't know I mean it's obviously powerful but it's a really tough call. I think we'd have to see how dominating it is post-Flash (or post-Scroll for that matter).

[xycsoscyx]

At the latest Mirkwood tournament in Washington, the Top 8 was:

Flash
G.A.T.
G.A.T.
G.A.T.
Slaver
Flash
Stax
Goblins

Doesn't seem very janky to me.

Mwahaha, and I was that lone Stax (though another Stax player almost made it in, as well)!  I was actually suprised with the field, but I really wouldn't call it Janky.  I think it's a similar trend that I usually see, many people just tend to play what's hot.  They see a deck Top8 and decide to play it (for whatever reasons).  Some people just want a new deck, some people just want to win, some people may actually like the deck!  Since I don't have a premium account on SCG, what is the result of the article, not just who came out on top, but what is the point?  By that I mean, what conclusions can one draw, obviously Flash and Gush should be expected at tournaments lately, but is it to the point of main decking hate against those decks, or still just sideboarding?

[Purple Hat]

I think one thing that's left out of this analysis is the proportion of gat/flash in the field.  if the field is 20%< gush based then 20% gush in top 8 isn't actually very impressive. 

But then you get to a point where you have to ask "man, Gush must be really good if so many people are playing it--when is it too good?"

at 20% I don't think we're anywhere near that.  the skull clamp block meta would be an obvious example of this problem, as would pro tour New Orleans and Mircadian Masques block with Lin Sevi unbanned.  in all three of these metas the field was something like 50-60% or more decks playing 4 of a specific card.  I think you could make that argument about scroll right now but I don't think gush is anywhere near that level.

[Implacable]

I want to be clear that I am not insulting people, but people are not playing Gush/Flash because a) they have a deck which has a 55/45 against both decks and loses to everything else or b) they are just stubborn.  People will bring suboptimal decks to tournaments simply because they are more familiar with them and not because they are good in the given format.  Top 8s are disproportionately filled with G.A.T./Flash because most of the excellent players recognize them as the most powerful and efficient decks in the format, and ride their brokenness to victory.  Now, a B&R discussion is for a different thread, but it's safe to say that I believe change had better come this September.

[PETER FLUGZEUG]

I Agree, and this change should be done upon merchant scroll IMO.

Alright, alright, I'll stop dead with talking about restrictions (as talking about restrictions is restricted, I know)

[Aardshark]

I want to be clear that I am not insulting people, but people are not playing Gush/Flash because a) they have a deck which has a 55/45 against both decks and loses to everything else or b) they are just stubborn.  People will bring suboptimal decks to tournaments simply because they are more familiar with them and not because they are good in the given format.  Top 8s are disproportionately filled with G.A.T./Flash because most of the excellent players recognize them as the most powerful and efficient decks in the format, and ride their brokenness to victory. 

This is true for me, at least re: GAT.  I know GAT's the best by far, but I don't feel like playing mirror matches all day, and not enough $ is on the line to motivate me to play it anyway.  

OTOH, I'm not playing flash anymore because (1) its not interesting to play because there's limited opportunity to add value with playskill, (2) its draws are all or nothing (this is related to 1 obviously), and (3) its a dog to GAT anyway, which is like 40% of my meta (NorCal).  If I'm going to play something sub-optimal (and I am -- go mindtwist.dec), I'm going to play something more fun and interesting than Flash.  

[Implacable]

I want to be clear that I am not insulting people, but people are not playing Gush/Flash because a) they have a deck which has a 55/45 against both decks and loses to everything else or b) they are just stubborn.  People will bring suboptimal decks to tournaments simply because they are more familiar with them and not because they are good in the given format.  Top 8s are disproportionately filled with G.A.T./Flash because most of the excellent players recognize them as the most powerful and efficient decks in the format, and ride their brokenness to victory. 

its a dog to GAT anyway, which is like 40% of my meta (NorCal). 

Really?  One of the reasons that I like Flash so much right now is that, in my experience, it crushes G.A.T.

[Aardshark]

I want to be clear that I am not insulting people, but people are not playing Gush/Flash because a) they have a deck which has a 55/45 against both decks and loses to everything else or b) they are just stubborn.  People will bring suboptimal decks to tournaments simply because they are more familiar with them and not because they are good in the given format.  Top 8s are disproportionately filled with G.A.T./Flash because most of the excellent players recognize them as the most powerful and efficient decks in the format, and ride their brokenness to victory. 

its a dog to GAT anyway, which is like 40% of my meta (NorCal). 

Really?  One of the reasons that I like Flash so much right now is that, in my experience, it crushes G.A.T.

My testing has been consistant with Steve's "Hulk v. Flash" premium article (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14542.html): about 60-40% in favor of GAT presideboard (similar to mindtwist.dec incidently). I haven't tested much post sideboard, but it can only get worse for GAT with leylines and REBs coming in on the GAT side -- unless I'm seriously underestimating the strength of a transformational plan (which I haven't tested).