Lorwyn impact prediction - vroman

[vroman]

Theres only 6 cards that have a prayer of impacting vintage. As a whole this set is very weak for vintage, and pretty much every non-casual format. everything is just abysmally overcosted. there are very few efficient cards. even the ones that will appear in decks, are just slight upgrades on existing cards. theres no cards that will substantially change the metagame like warrens or Dconfidant.

1. Thoughtsieze - this is a no brainer. almost a strictly better Duress. the only downside being vulnerable to misidrection. the added option of discarding queer dryads and togs and protean hulk and magusmoon is certainly worth 2 life.
2. Thorn of amethyst - playable glowrider. solid sideboard card for aggro control and/or stax.
3. gaddock teeg - Im not that impressed by this guy, but he has potential in vintage-style GWU threshold, or similiar
4. ponder - very efficient cantrip. sorcery speed has always been major liability in vintage, but you should be able to get away w tapping the occaisonal island mainphase.
5. spellstutter sprite - much better than spiketail hatchling
6. Eyes of the wisent - super powered Hidden Gibbons for two mana

thoughtseize and thorn of amethyst are the only two Im confident will see play. the rest of the set has no contenders whatsoever.

[Harlequin]

As a shop aficionado, I'm surprised you didn't include Rings of the Brighthearth as a possiblity.  Not only does it seem to be powerful as the basis of a combo deck - but I have been testing Ray's gencon deck with:
-2 Chalice
-1 something
+2 Rings of the brighthearth
+1 Time Vault

And I think it really adds some dimention to the deck.  Here is a list of findings:
Waste/Strip - obviously benefit
Bazaar - deeper digs
Jar - digs deep, and you get to choose what hand to go back to.
Time vault - after an untap step, you go infinite turns
Welder - It's not crazy, but it does let you weld 2 artifacts out for 2 artifacts in your yard. (note targeting rules).
Barb Ring - Kills x/4s, or two x/2's
Top - nets a card
Coalition relic - can use EOT sol rings and such to double charge for next turn
Trike - with tons of mana you can deal 6 to the dome... not a great sell but a possiblity.

It may not be optimal - but I think it deserves some testing.

[Beatdown]

Thousand year elixir seems like it would be okay in shop decks as well. Haste welders and pretty crazy things with metalworkers seem possible.

[vroman]

no and no.
rings of brighthearth and thousand year eleixer are both explensive clunky enablers that do nothing on their own. worthless.

[Troy_Costisick]

Ponder could be a useful sorcery in GAT decks that start sporting Tarmogoyfs.  IMO, it's a better card than Opt.

Peace,

-Troy

[zeus-online]

I think voltaic key is possibly just straight up superior to both the ring and and the elixir, and voltaic key is unplayable.

I think you're spot on with your analysis. Although i personally think duress is better then thoughtseize in almost every deck.

/Zeus

[cheddercaveman]

Ponder could be a useful sorcery in GAT decks that start sporting Tarmogoyfs.  IMO, it's a better card than Opt.

Peace,

-Troy

Well, I think there are a couple of issues with that.  A) GAT decks arent going to start sporting tarmogoyf, the list is too tight already and in this deck Dryad is better.  B) Its a sorcery and therefore not better than Opt because Opt lets you cast a vampiric tutor or mystical tutor, then opt, draw the card you tutored, and you've added 3 counters to your dryad.

As far as the other comments.  Gaddock Teeg is pretty solid, especially considering his colors.  Not sure the overall viability, but theres something.  The sphere is really good, especially for decks that want to play some creatures and slow you down.  Thoughtsieze will be one that only time tells.  Personally I'm not sure the 2 life is worth it for a better duress, but who knows.  The faerie counter guy is NOT better than spiketail hatchling, they're completely different.  The faerie counters UPTO cmc = number of faeries in play, which is normally going to be 1 in vintage.  Hatchling makes them pay 1 or counter, that means it can hit any CMC depending on how its played.  Stick with hatchling if you need anything like that currently

[MafiaKingpin]

I think that Moonglove Extract could be a 1 of in Stax.  It does the same thing essentially that Barbarian Ring does without threshold, costs 3, and doesn't produce mana.  But I do think it is a good Welder target.

[vroman]

moonglove extract I had not noticed. however, it seems unlikely to be played, remembering that pyrite spellbomb and aeolipile have never even been considered for inclusion.

[FlamingCloud]

Moonglove extract doesn't seem favorable compared to lets say.. Granite Shard.

[Xyre]

Ponder could be a useful sorcery in GAT decks that start sporting Tarmogoyfs.  IMO, it's a better card than Opt.

Peace,

-Troy

Opt is an instant, Ponder is a sorcery. There's a reason why most GAT lists don't play Serum Visions.

[korangar]

5. spellstutter sprite - much better than spiketail hatchling

I dont think Spellshutter Sprite sees play, as it only counter a spell with a CC equal or lower than the number of faeries you control (1 ??)

Another card worth consideration is:

Sower of Temptation

Creature - Faerie Wizard   Rare
Flying
When Sower of Temptation comes into play, gain control of target creature as long as Sower of Temptation remains in play.
2/2

It's a Control Magic with legs, what do you think?

[PETER FLUGZEUG]

The conrol magic dude is like a magus of the control. It has it's up- and downsides, as well known:
- Creatures can attack, but are more easily destroyed than enchantments.
What is different here, is that you could argue, magus of the moon isn't destroyed (or bounced) as easily as Sower of temptation, because he shuts down answers (via mana denial). On the other hand, some decks have access to fire ice which often is enabled via magus in the first place.
For me, it's about the same power level as control magic. In fish though (i've seen a few fish decks sporting control magic recently) it could eventually be better, because it ups the clock a bit. Especially because it has evasion.
But it won't impact vintage (well, at least not in aother way than control magic), I think.

[Smmenen]

Another card worth consideration is:

Sower of Temptation

Creature - Faerie Wizard   Rare
Flying
When Sower of Temptation comes into play, gain control of target creature as long as Sower of Temptation remains in play.
2/2

It's a Control Magic with legs, what do you think?

LOL, that's exactly what I wrote in my set review!   "Control Magic with legs."   

Vroman definitely missed this. 

[And11]

Well, sure it's a Control Magic on legs. You make it sound like it's actually good to be a creature instead of an enchantment. It's horrible in my opinion.

[squeegee]

Well, sure it's a Control Magic on legs. You make it sound like it's actually good to be a creature instead of an enchantment. It's horrible in my opinion.

Then why is Magus of the Moon played over Blood Moon???   Duress anyone?

[vroman]

since when was control magic good? control magic + 2/2 flyer, but more vulnerable, doesnt rock my world.

also spellstutter sprite is fine. the amount of 0-1c spells youd want to counter are enormous. its worth it just to pick off brainstorm and get a flyer. maybe one you bounce to draw-ninja or something.

[MarkPharaoh]

since when was control magic good?

Back when Legend Blue was playable

[policehq]

Well, sure it's a Control Magic on legs. You make it sound like it's actually good to be a creature instead of an enchantment. It's horrible in my opinion.

Then why is Magus of the Moon played over Blood Moon???   Duress anyone?

This will be a moot point when Thoughtseize is released (with the new Control Magic).

since when was control magic good? control magic + 2/2 flyer, but more vulnerable, doesnt rock my world.

also spellstutter sprite is fine. the amount of 0-1c spells youd want to counter are enormous. its worth it just to pick off brainstorm and get a flyer. maybe one you bounce to draw-ninja or something.

Spiketail Hatchling hasn't been good for a long time either, and this card requires that you play it reactively but yet in the early game.

[And11]

squeegee:

Magus
1) Yes, you are correct about Duress.
2) It's an actual clock.
3) It's not REB-able anyway, Swords can't be cast etc. You get my point.

Control Magic creature
1) Sure, it's a slight advantage that it cannot be Duressed away, but...
2) You just got your self a clock if you resolve Control Magic.
3) It's REB-able + if it gets killed by any creature removal, they get their creature back. The same is true for Control Magic, only 1/10 cards work against it compared.

[Necrologia]

It's REB-able + if it gets killed by any creature removal, they get their creature back. The same is true for Control Magic, only 1/10 cards work against it compared.

Both the Faerie and Control Magic are REB targets. Both are vulnerable to bounce. The only thing the Faerie's vulnerable to that Control Magic isn't is creature removal. I'd hardly say that 9/10 of the cards that would be used to remove the Faerie would be creature removal. I think it'd be far more likely to be bounced or REB'd than Fire/Ice'd or Stp'd away. It's even immune to Smother, which is one of the most popular critter removal spells right now.

That said, I'm still not sure if it belongs anywhere. Urbana Fish ran Control Magic as far as I know, and this could take a slot or two there easily. But did Urbana ever top 8 anywhere? It's a great deck in theory, but UWB seems to be a good bit more popular than URB fish.

[Moxlotus]

That said, I'm still not sure if it belongs anywhere. Urbana Fish ran Control Magic as far as I know, and this could take a slot or two there easily. But did Urbana ever top 8 anywhere? It's a great deck in theory, but UWB seems to be a good bit more popular than URB fish. 

A quick search since July turns up these results:

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=34524.0

http://www.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=33689.0

I should note that I made top 4 at this ~50 person tournament whose full results I can't find anywhere.

But yeah, U/W/B fish is a lot more popular in everywhere that isn't GWS/ICBM land.  Not sure why given that REB is even better now more than ever before.  People like Meddling Mage and Grunt I guess.

I <3 Control Magic with legs!  While I'm not sure that CM is the right card for URBana at this moment, if it ever is again, this will definitely take its place.

[And11]

Necrologia: Well, I might've overexaggerated some, but the point still stands. It's easier to kill and a 2/2 body isn't worth the risk of running into StP, Fire or whatever removal spell IMO. Especially since more and more creatures see play nowadays.

[Wagner]

About the Hatchling VS Sprite thing. I think they serve 2 different purposes, Hatchling was played early game to do some damange while keeping your mana untapped for Stifle/REB/useful things, it had a place, even though it was a weak card. And with 2 Hatchling in play, you had a stronger board. With the Sprite, would you really hold those 2 mana up to eventually counter a spell and have an horrible clock afterward? I see no reason to play the sprite over Mana Leak in any deck (besides Faeries obviously (which shouldn't be played anyways)). And with 2 in hand, you just got a 4 mana Mana Leak.

[squeegee]

I wasn't saying that either CM or the Faerie are good, just that the Faerie isn't much worse if at all.  Personally i wouldn't play either, but then I don't play fish either.  Unless my pyrite spellbomb gets Extripated.   

[SyntheticAngel]

Ponder is good in GAT because it digs deeper than Opt does. Granted Opt+Mystical Tutor or Vampiric Tutor is amazing when digging for counters, Will, or something else, but other than that Opt is hit or miss because if the first card you see off Opt is ass than the second card you see is ass well, but the first card was better too bad you tossed it away. I don't like the fact that aside from Tutoring, Opt doesn't dig very deep in your deck. If you are trying to grow your Dryad very rarely are you going to need to grow it at instant speed to save it from a burn spell.

[cheddercaveman]

I will make the comment i think that others have made in that Ponder will NOT see play in vintage.  Right now Portent and Serum Visions are not played and this is really just a variant on those.  Opt in this case is a lot better because its an instant.  However, I will say that a few people have been commenting on using disrupt with some success, this seems like a better swap out for opt than Ponder

Sower of Temptation will probably be good for the reason Magus of the Moon is good, Duress doesn't touch it.  Direct removal is also pretty rare in vintage and it suffers the same issue that control magic does, bouncing it will put you back to square 1.  However....

Thoughtseize might catch on over Duress in the coming months.  I think currently this card is overhyped however.  Duress is still really good, and while life IS a resource it does have to be a consideration.  Look at all the lifeloss already out there like yawg bargain, fastbond, force of will, fetching.  This DOES add up, but in combo where its largely irrelevant we might see it because it'll get that Meddling Mage before they can cast it.

Thorn of Amethyst seems good, not sure if it'll see anymore play that sphere of resistance though.  Cards like this definitely help out aggro, but right now its not enough for this format by itself, maybe down the road though.

Spellstutter Sprite seems like a fun trick, but I dont think it'll get there.  Its only gonna hit CMC 0 and 1, which seems no where near as effective as chalice of the void, or playing something like mox monkey.  Unless a deck more faerie focused hits Vintage (which I'm currently doubting) then maybe

None of the Planeswalkers are even worth mentioning.  Ajani has an irrelevant ability.  Jace is too slow (we get 3 cards for U in this format).   Garruck makes creatures and untaps lands, other better ways of doing that.  Chandra is just too slow to win.  Lilianna seems broken when you see a "free" tutor effect, but she's not, nobody pays 2BB for a tutor, they're not gonna pay 3BB for something that costs B in vintage.

[andrewpate]

Thoughtseize might catch on over Duress in the coming months.  I think currently this card is overhyped however.  Duress is still really good, and while life IS a resource it does have to be a consideration.  Look at all the lifeloss already out there like yawg bargain, fastbond, force of will, fetching.  This DOES add up, but in combo where its largely irrelevant we might see it because it'll get that Meddling Mage before they can cast it.

Lifeloss is not "largely irrelevant" currently, even in combo.  Maybe 2 years ago when players mostly took damage in increments of 11, but right now GAT constitutes a huge portion of the meta and can easily gobble up large chunks of life in the first few turns.  In the mirror match, Fastbond/fetch damage is frequently highly relevant (check out this report, in which a highly competent GAT player nearly kills himself with Fastbond damage and ends up losing because of it).  And one of the most discard-heavy decks in the meta (which might therefore be interested in Thoughtseize), Suicide Tendrils, frequently deals itself large amounts of damage between Night's Whisper, Vampiric Tutor, fetchlands, and even Necropotence (which must often be used strategically since it delays the kill by one turn and allows GAT a chance to go off against the shrunk life total).

In short, the 2 life from Thoughtseize is not a non-factor, even in Vintage, at least not as long as this many creatures are running around in the form of Dryads, Tarmogoyfs (Tarmogoyfu?), mini-Empty the Warrens plays, Zombie tokens, and let's not forget Fish and TMWA variants.  I think it's virtually a given that Thoughtseize will see play, but it's only better than Duress in a deck that fears Magus of the Moon (or similar) more than it fears a self-Shock, which is by no means every deck currently running it, and maybe not even most.

[LotusHead]

hoofprints of the Stag  1w
Tribal Enchantment — Elemental   
Whenever you draw a card, you may put a hoofprint counter on Hoofprints of the Stag.
2w, Remove four hoofprint counters from Hoofprints of the Stag: Put a 4/4 white Elemental creature token with flying into play. Play this ability only during your turn.

i think this could see play. after all, with brainstorm, getting 4 hoofprint counters isn't going to be hard. 

[meadbert]

So how is this better than Sera Angel?
Seral Angel gives a 4/4 flyer with Vigilence for the same mana cost and you do not have to worry about playing the four spells.

I suppose this gives you a second Angel for meerly an addtional w2, but you have to play 8 other spells first.

Am I missing something?