Lorwyn impact prediction - vroman

[LotusHead]

I figure that for 1W, you put down the enchantment and play control for a bit.
When you are ready to start winning (or blocking Bob's and Mindcensers), you will likely have plenty of counters on the enchantment.

The thing that would make this better than Serra Angel is less white mana commitment, and the fact that you could get 2-3 fliers potentially.

Perhaps a Landstill build could use it.

[squeegee]

It's not for playing spells, it's for drawing cards.

[PETER FLUGZEUG]

In an UW Landstill deck, this could be a good win condition, as well as a good drain sink (if you have  open). it would keep threats coming under a standstill if they play nothing (for 4 turns...) or if they play something, immediately.
Just from first glance, but perhaps it's too slow.

[meadbert]

I figure that for 1W, you put down the enchantment and play control for a bit.
When you are ready to start winning (or blocking Bob's and Mindcensers), you will likely have plenty of counters on the enchantment.

The thing that would make this better than Serra Angel is less white mana commitment, and the fact that you could get 2-3 fliers potentially.

Perhaps a Landstill build could use it.

I can see how in a long game this would be powerful.  The trick is to build a deck that can survive into the long game.

[ErkBek]

It's not that landstill doesn't ever want to tap mana on a main phase for a kill condition, it's that it doesn't want to waste maindeck space on kill conditions that aren't strong control pieces like Meddling Mage.

[Grand Inquisitor]

hoofprints of the Stag  

This is interesting.  It has lots of drawbacks, but remember that it's good in multiples and the instant speed nature of it makes it really formidable against creature based strategies (which may become increasingly popular post llorwyn).

It's true, the trick here is building a deck that can survive long enough to use it.  I don't think landstill is really what works here.  You want brainstorm, gush, and probably more fish-esque locking pieces.

[Liam-K]

Does the possibility of running 8 duress boosts Cabal Therapy and Extirpate... who wants to bet we see a lot of very obnoxious discard-based fish decks for at least a little while?

[The Atog Lord]

Laim,

I've thought about this, and I'm not sure that it is as appealing as it might first appear. Yes, with the right mix of discard elements and threats, you'll be in a great position to control the opponent while still pursuing your own game plan. The problem comes when your draw consists of only mana and discard spells -- not an unrealistic occasion if you opt to run 16 discard cards, Extirpate included. There are not, nor have there been in the modern age of Vintage, any decks which can successfully run sixteen counters. This is because it has proven a better strategy to run only the best of the counters, and to replace the suboptimal counters with better draw spells. I doubt that discard will be much different: I expect that there will be powerful decks with both Duress and Thoughtseize, and perhaps a pair of Extirpates at most. Any deck including discard, counting Extirpate, beyond ten would surprise me by doing well.

[Liam-K]

16 is obviously too much, but I imagine that 12-14 with dimir cutpurse and confidant, SS style, will show up a bunch in the early brackets even if not exactly optimal.  I'm not sure how one should go about preparing for this sort of thing, "just win" seems like the way to go but hands involving mox jet or black lotus will be really annoying.

[ErkBek]

I think the real problem with trying to run a deck with lots of discard in vintage is that most decks can topdeck out of a discard lock fairly quickly. For example, your opponent could be locked down holding 0 cards, just with 3 lands out. They topdeck Gush or Merchant Scroll and that just be enough to break your lock. So this ends up stretching discard decks to having 1-3 options

1) Have some way of preventing your opponent from drawing good cards or run counterspells too
2) Have a strong mana denial plan so they can't just topdeck and chain a bunch of spells together to reload
3) Have a really fast clock

Combine this with needing some solutions to resolved threats and you're going in too many directions. In my experience that's been the problems with heavy discard decks. Some games everything comes together, but overall it's not consistent enough to build an upper tier deck that consistantly performs well. Not to belittle people that have made top 8's with Suiblack decks, but I would say probably things came together for them sometimes that they can't always count on.

Also, topdeck tutors + Tinker/Yawg Will/other good cards are a real beating for all discard strategies.

[policehq]

All of those things have been tried before. At the moment you can attack their hand with Cabal Therapy, Duress, maybe Hymn, maybe Extirpate, attack their ability to draw extra cards with Chains of Mephistopheles or use their topdecks with Erayo, Hippie, or Dimir Cutpurse, and attack their ability to tutor with Aven Mindcensor.

But now we're just talking about optimizing a pre-existing deck with cards that have been released since (and it's highly doubtful that Mindcensor would help Sullivan Solution).

[ErkBek]

All of those things have been tried before. At the moment you can attack their hand with Cabal Therapy, Duress, maybe Hymn, maybe Extirpate, attack their ability to draw extra cards with Chains of Mephistopheles or use their topdecks with Erayo, Hippie, or Dimir Cutpurse, and attack their ability to tutor with Aven Mindcensor.

But now we're just talking about optimizing a pre-existing deck with cards that have been released since (and it's highly doubtful that Mindcensor would help Sullivan Solution).

Chains of Meph is a card I forgot about in my post. Chains prevents the draw spell chain out, but it's another card invested into the lock down. It still leaves the tutor->Tinker out or early Dryad out though. 

[Liam-K]

As a side note, extirpate is really solid right now even without Thoughtseize... the best decks run an engine which is often cast very early and rarely wins the game by resolving once.  Taking Scrolls or Gushes can give someone serious trouble.  With wastelands, taking someone's underground seas also gives them real problems.  Another 4 cards make it that much more reliable a discard spell, but its strength is less hand rape and more plan rape.

For clarity's sake, I don't think a deck based around B sorceries will be top tier.  I just think a lot of people are going to play it, and am a little perplexed as to how one should go about not randomly losing the game in a tournament, as much as that is possible.  Kobefan mentions a clock making the plan more troublesome: I'll point out that tarmogoyf and discard have pretty solid synergy.

("impact predictions" means things that will see play, right?  That's certainly not exclusive to optimal lists)

[Pave]

I imagine Hoofprints of the Stag would find it difficult to compete for a slot with Decree of Justice or Meloku.

[BruiZar]

Cards that caught my eye are:

Burrenton Forge-Tender:
UW fish sideboard card vs TMWA or Goblins. Sacks for Voidmage, blocks jackal pups, piledrivers, lackeys, immune to grim lavamancer and can randomly sack itself to prevent direct burn for just 1 white mana.


Mirror Entity

I'm not sure what role this card could have, maybe a mana drain outlet? Sure a Crystaline Sliver or Voidmage Prodigy won't win the match for you, but some mass-pumping alongside some alternative CC counterspells could provide a decent clock. This card also cleans the board under a balance by making your creatures 0/0 in response to it, killing your opponents dryads, tarmogoyfs, goblins, bobs or fish army. In any case, I like it

Windbrisk Heights

Although it comes into play tapped, I would like to see how this card performs in a deck sporting one drops like lions and so on. This card is probably too slow, but one cannot know without testing especially given the fact that the card has a new mechanic.

[LotusHead]

I imagine Hoofprints of the Stag would find it difficult to compete for a slot with Decree of Justice or Meloku.

Decree, while sweet, has a minimum of 5 mana commintment just to bring 2 dorks and 1 card onto the field.
Meloku, while also hot, costs 5 at sorcery speed.

Hoofprints costs 1W at some stage (and 1W isn't too much to ask to get a "threat" online), and after that, 3 mana at sorcery speed might be academic.

That is, unless you are getting Flashed out by turn say, 3, or fighting off Akroma and company.

Keep in mind, even though I think Hoofprints will see play in control decks, I am not giving up my Shops anytime soon.

I just think it's in the "Will impact Vintage" category, as opposed to "Never" category.

[madmanmike25]

My thoughts on Lorwyn:  Expect to see more Stax Decks.  Mana denial can actually make a comeback with the addition of Thorn.  This is especially true since almost EVERYONE wants to run Gush and return permanents back to their hands.  Smokestack will probably find its way back into "Staxless Stax" decks.  Let's look at all the mana denial components that are now available:

Trinisphere
Sphere of Resistance
Thorn of Amethyst
Chalice of the Void
Null Rod
Wasteland
Stripmine
Ghost Quarter(look at recent lists and tell me how many basics you see, also more Bazaar hate against Ichorid)
Crucible(when combined with the 3 above cards)
Tanglewire
Smokestack
Orb of Dreams(good on the play, or against fetches, Gush, and Ichorid)

Those are just the cards off the top of my head, and only 2 of those cards are restricted.  Really, my bet is on Mishras Workshop to make more of an appearance(if only more competent people would play it).  Shop aggro also has more of a shot now, but I still think Smokestack>Juggernaut.

Mike

EDIT: Post 187, how gangsta of me...

[AmbivalentDuck]

16 is obviously too much, but I imagine that 12-14 with dimir cutpurse and confidant, SS style, will show up a bunch in the early brackets even if not exactly optimal.  I'm not sure how one should go about preparing for this sort of thing, "just win" seems like the way to go but hands involving mox jet or black lotus will be really annoying.

SS is very very dead.  I've top 8-ed with the deck in the last year, and let me assure you that SS is unplayable.

SS's biggest weakness was always getting its dorks turned sideways and surviving the ordeal.  The list I top 8-ed with ran Sword of Fire and Ice maindeck simply because any resolved 2/2 meant that I would die of Bob damage before I could kill them unless I drew into multiple Cutpurses or an EE.  SS with 4 Extirpates was strong in a storm and Gifts heavy environment because your dudes would survive turning sideways.  In the current meta, Bob is too slow against Flash, GAT rolls 2/2s, and today's Ichorid can shrug off Leyline + Extirpate.

To give you an idea, I actually ran 2x Jitte, 3x Threads of Disloyalty, Echoing Decaying, and EE in the side in case of an aggro matchup.  The rest of the field was that good and aggro was that bad.  EDIT: And 3x Energy Flux against Workshop aggro.

In short, SS is not coming back in the hands of any intelligent person short of truly backbreaking non-black, non-cast creature hate being printed.

Something like:
UB, Enchantment, nonblack creatures cannot be played.  If a creature would come into play, unless a player played it from his/her hand destroy it.

[Phele]

I wouldn't go so far that SS is dead. It's still a viable deck and maybe just needs a few modifications. But especially against the so much feared GAT matchup it's imo quite ok. The mana denial route leaves you with quite few options against it and your disruption package is quite annoying. But anyway, if you fear aggro so much and you are looking for a better punch: Play Dark Illusion aka UB Mask. The synergy of the deck is overwhelming and you don't have to fear creatures that much anymore as you are playing dudes they have to handle first instead of you trying to get rid of this Grunt whatever.

On topic: In testing so far, I wasn't that much impressed by Thoughtseize. It has its merrits against things like Bomberman and sometimes (!) fish, but the extra life loss hurts quite often. Especially against everything playing many creatures, where the spell actually should shine. And Against Storm and Oath for example, it's a horrible choice to play Thoughtseize over Duress. Maybe this needs more testing, but I could imagine that Thoughtseize goes the Street Wraith way. A card many people thought it should be played in almost every deck, and now it ends to be just special deck material – like Ichorid.

Thorn seems to be a nice addition to Workshop aggro, that could help this archetype on top again – at least on paper. I don't own Workshops so I don't test them, but while testing against them I often found, that the nine sphere plan leaves the deck with less flexibility and less strategical depth. You have to cut something for the extra spheres, and many people didn't play Tangle Wire then for example and I was happy sometimes, that they just played another sphere instead. Everthing with a stable manabase and also some creatures around - like Bomberman and UB Mask and UW Fish should give these builds a hard time.

Sower of Temptation will find its way in some sideboards. Sure it can be easier removed, but it's also an extra win condition on the table. Between that it's imo kind of playable.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Sower of Temptation will find its way in some sideboards. Sure it can be easier removed, but it's also an extra win condition on the table. Between that it's imo kind of playable.

Huh?  This card is strictly worse than Control Magic (unless I'm missing some combo) and that only saw play in unrefined Urbana lists.

[Phele]

Imo it's not strictly worse than Control Magic. Even though it's more vulnerable to Removal it also serves with extra points of damage which should not be totally overseen. Maybe the meta is bad in the moment for this critter, as there is too much creature removal around. But this has been different just a few months ago and so could follow a similar development in the future. Anyway: I didn't say that its sideboard material for every deck, just for some – especially some UR builds might like it.

[FlamingCloud]

Sower of Temptation will find its way in some sideboards. Sure it can be easier removed, but it's also an extra win condition on the table. Between that it's imo kind of playable.

Huh?  This card is strictly worse than Control Magic (unless I'm missing some combo) and that only saw play in unrefined Urbana lists.

That is like saying magus of the moon is strictly inferior to blood moon.  It may not find its way to being overall better but I am sure there is lots of circumstances where you would rather be beating for two while their creature is stolen.

[Smmenen]

Sower of Temptation will find its way in some sideboards. Sure it can be easier removed, but it's also an extra win condition on the table. Between that it's imo kind of playable.

Huh?  This card is strictly worse than Control Magic (unless I'm missing some combo)

Can you please explain that? 

[Grand Inquisitor]

Sorry, I was missing something.     I somehow got in my head that the opponent got to control the faerie.

That being said, I still don't see this being any better than seasinger or the original creatureless version.  I feel this is worse than the magus<>bloodmoon comparison in that magus at least might cripple an opponent's ability to remove it.