Football

[The Demon]

I will take the Colts by seven.  Adrain Gonzalez is playing really well and Dallas Clark leads their team in TD receptions currently.  I am guessing 35 28 colts.

[Meddling Mike]

If I were the Patriots I'd be really wary of the Colts just smashing the interior of their defensive line with Addai.  The Indianapolis offensive line is the best in football and they are proven capable of running the football on anyone.

Disagree. The Colts running game is good, but not unstoppable. The Texans, now ranked 20th in rush defense, kept the Colts under 100 yards. They also looked so-so against the Titans with Addai getting all 81 rushing yards they racked up, but the Titans do have the best rush defense in the league. Any success the Colts running game has had has more to do with the fact that teams have to commit so much of their resources to covering the likes of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison. I think if you put Joseph Addai on a team where he's expected to carry the offense, like Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, and he wouldn't be putting up such good numbers.

I don't even know how you would go about making a statistical basis for assertions like "Indy has the best offensive line in football". Like, what do you go by? Sacks? Hurries/Knock downs? Rushing Yards? Interceptions? Something an analyst says? Seems like almost all those statistics have waaay too much to do with what other non-offensive line players do to really use it as a tool for evaluation. Like, sacks would seem like a good barometer to me, but how do you work that in if the Quarterback can't scramble worth a damn like Drew Bledsoe? What if defenses are so afraid of Peyton Manning and how well he reacts under pressure and his willingness to take a hit in the pocket that they feel blitzing is too risky and won't be effective? That said, I don't necessarily disagree with you that the Colts O-line is  pretty good. 

[kirdape3]

Number of sacks is a big one.  Manning has the second fewest sacks in the league (Drew Brees has 4, and doesn't throw deep in that offense at all), and while Brady has 30 more pass attempts it's not like Manning takes a bunch of three-step drops with that yards/attempt and yards/completion.

The Colts running game is a lot more capable than people think it is.  The way they ground down the Jacksonville defense (with a steroid-lad in Stroud in the middle) was a sight to see.  Fifth in rushing is not something to sneeze at, and 4.4 a carry is well above league-average.

[Meddling Mike]

Number of sacks is a big one.  Manning has the second fewest sacks in the league (Drew Brees has 4, and doesn't throw deep in that offense at all), and while Brady has 30 more pass attempts it's not like Manning takes a bunch of three-step drops with that yards/attempt and yards/completion.

I stick by my argument that there are just waaaay to many other variables involved to judge an offensive line by the number of sacks.

The Colts running game is a lot more capable than people think it is.  The way they ground down the Jacksonville defense (with a steroid-lad in Stroud in the middle) was a sight to see.  Fifth in rushing is not something to sneeze at, and 4.4 a carry is well above league-average.

I'm aware of Indy's rushing numbers, and they are solid, my contention was that they weren't capable of "running the ball on anyone" as both the Texans and Titans kept the Indy running game in check and also that Joseph Addai is reaping the benefits of defenses committing most of their resources to keeping Peyton Manning under wraps. Basically, if linebackers need to be in coverage to try and keep Manning from carving up the secondary, that opens things up on the line for Addai. I give Adrian Peterson in Minnesota all the credit in the world because everybody in the stadium knows he's the only real threat in that offense, defenses commit to stop the run and somehow he still manages to get it done. I feel the same way about the Colts rushing as I do about the Patriots rushing. Maroney and Morris put up solid numbers for the Patriots, but it's just because the opposition is desperately trying to cover the likes of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. I guess the underlying point is that the running game is a good compliment to the passing game, not vice versa, nor is it a good stand alone plan like you seemed to be suggesting in your initial post.

[kirdape3]

The last real option for their 'standalone' plan of running the football and playing defense (also #1 pass defense on the Colts, who knew?!) was the Super Bowl, where they simply dismantled an admittedly injured defense by pounding the ball up the middle with Addai and Rhodes.  Even with the Titans slowing the Colts ground game down, I have consistenly been impressed with their abilities.  I would not be as impressed with the Patriots simply because Addai is better and healthier than Maroney is.

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

Holy cow, how about them Saints!!! I know this Asian is jumping on the bandwagon! How can you not like Brees/Bush/Colston? I'm rooting for them to make the Super Bowl.

My prediction for the Indy/NE game: It's a close game, but Indy pulls through. Indy's running game is so much more impressive than NE's

[Vegeta2711]

All Day broke the NFL Rushing Record (With 296 yards) against a pretty good NFL Rushing defense (#7 in the league before this thrashing). Even better than many people thought he'd do when coming into the league. How did this kid fall to 7th again? 

EDIT - P.S. Colts Pats game looks good.

[Vegeta2711]

Helluva game. Not much else to say. Both QB's got rattled a bit and Addai basically scored more than either offense did the entire game. It'll be a really interesting rematch down the line.

It's nice to see that the Pats can't just run people over when they aren't playing flawed teams.

[Dante]

Be interesting to see a playoff rematch when the Colts have Marvin Harrison back.

[Grand Inquisitor]

Observations from the east coast:

1) As people were starting to say towards the end of this past week, Indy was underestimated by a lot of people - especially they're ability to put pressure on Brady
2) Addai was better than many thought and allowed Indy to control the clock
3) NE got hosed on pass interference calls on both sides of the ball
4) In spite of this and Addai's performance, Indy faltered in the red zone
5) Pats made adjustments for #s 1 & 2 which won it for them

[MadManiac21]

Pats able to win through some terrible calls. So good.

[Dante]

The offensive call against Moss wasn't a bad call - he pushed off.  It was just MUCH earlier in the play than most anyone caught (including the bonehead announcers) - there was the arm-push to get separation, then he turned around and tried jumping to catch the pass.

The 2nd defense one against NE was off - the guy was running for the ball, looking back, had a right to the position.

[Kowal]

How can you not like Brees/Bush/Colston? I'm rooting for them to make the Super Bowl.

I had all three on my fantasy roster this week! 

I'm more excited about the Browns game.  Seattle was in great position going in to overtime and the Browns managed to keep Hasselbeck from ending the game prematurely, and rallied with a very quick and accurate drive for the game winning field goal.  I was sweating the entire game.

Regarding Pats vs Colts:

I am not a rabid Patriots fan.  I'm not even a Patriots fan.  In fact, with the exception of the Bruins, I hate cheering for home teams (sometimes actively cheering against them to shut up those around me).  That said, I think there were a LOT of bullshit calls and lack of calls by the referee staff, and I think the Patriots efforts tonight weren't against the Colts, but against the officials.  With a healthy Harrison and some reasonable referees, I think this already exciting game would have been a lot more fun.  I still pick the Patriots though.  Indy's a lot better than I gave it credit for, but the Patriots this year are just wildly dangerous and explosive.  Even tonight, not looking even close to their sharpest, they managed to pull it through.  If they had been on their game like they were against any number of other teams this season, I think the score would have favored the patriots by 10 or more.

[Meddling Mike]

It's a good thing the Patriots won this game, otherwise I would have been pissed about the quality of the officiating in this game, now I'm just strongly annoyed and concerned. These guys must have graduated from the Donaghy school of ethical officiating, well, luckily for them the Colts managed to cover the spread.

I rarely seriously consider the possibility that an umpire or official might be "tainted" in some way, but this was one of those games. Look at the disparity: The Patriots sent franchise penalty records with 10 penalties for 146 yards, the colts got 4 for 25. The only time they actually threw the flag for a penalty of relevance against the Colts was about a full second after Randy Moss was on the ground with ball in hand. They basically handed the Colts a touchdown on a silver platter (not that Indy didn't blow it and kick a FG) on that Reggie Wayne-Ellis Hobbs route in which Hobbs played perfectly and Reggie Wayne just fell on Hobbs as he was moving for the ball and got the interference call that brought them all the way down the field. Regardless of what other's have said in this thread, I rewatched that play on Tivo about 3 more times and saw nothing Randy Moss did that could be seriously construed as offensive pass interference. If it happened earlier in the play why did they throw the flag when he was in the end zone getting ready to go for the ball? Doesn't make sense. There were also some pretty notable non-calls. Brady was livid after Kevin Faulk clearly had his arm grabbed on 3rd down while trying to run his route. There was another pretty bad one where Moss jumped for a ball and his right hand was being held onto by the defender to the point where he couldn't bring the hand up to help make the catch. The only calls against the Colts were absolutely undeniable: Two false starts, and one offensive holding and one defensive holding call that were too blatant not to call.

Thanks to the Colts for actually making things interesting, we'll see you in Gillette for the AFC Championship game. As I recall, Peyton doesn't play as well outdoors in mid-January as he does in his climate controlled dome right?

All Day broke the NFL Rushing Record (With 296 yards) against a pretty good NFL Rushing defense (#7 in the league before this thrashing). Even better than many people thought he'd do when coming into the league. How did this kid fall to 7th again? 

EDIT - P.S. Colts Pats game looks good.

Seriously, AP, that guy is just poetry in motion. He's a one man show, everybody knew it and the Chargers were helpless against him.

[kirdape3]

Castillo getting hurt had a little to do with that - that kid is a MONSTER in the center of their line.  Peterson's the best or second-best back in football (the other being opposite him in LT) this year

A lot of those penalties on the Patriots were really on the 'oh shit, you're awful' kind like the personal fouls.  New England played a very sloppy game and did to Indianapolis what had been done to them in last year's Championship Game anyways - oh look, you no longer can stay with our receivers and put pressure on the QB, good night.  Indianapolis showed a very strong ability to run the ball, and if Harrison was available (or even Gonzalez), it's entirely possible that there would've been no 21 and 29 yard field goals - those balls would be in the end zone and the game would've been out of reach when Brady went to work with 10min remaining.  I'm sure that the Colts are going to put a ton of heat on the Patriots for home field, too.

[Meddling Mike]

How bout them Steelers? Looks like 19-0 isn't wrapped up just yet. I'm also concerned about the Giants in the final week of the season.

How can you not like Brees/Bush/Colston? I'm rooting for them to make the Super Bowl.

I had all three on my fantasy roster this week! 

Yeah, good call. I remember you told me you were banking on the Saints having a big game offensively against Jax and I thought you were crazy. I figured Jax was a good defensive team in the AFC, a so-so NFC team should get wrecked, but I was wrong. The Jags have been reeling ever since that loss to Indy, the rest of their schedule doesn't seem to offer much of a reprieve either.

[Apollyon]

While the Steelers are good, I'm not sure about their ability to outscore the Patriots. The Pats need to really watch out for Willie Parker, if the Colts game was any indication of their defense.

I'm reading the recap of Monday's game right now. In the first half, they scored 3 TDs on drives that began in Baltimore territory.

Brady's worst game of this year had him only throwing for 255 yards and 3 TDs. He threw as many TDs in one game as 3 QBs did this whole season (Cleo Lemon, Vince Young, and Kyle Boller). The only other QB that started 9 games so far is Jeff Garcia, who threw for a total of 9.

In fact, if you look at just the past 3 weeks, there are 8 QBs on the season who can beat out his total in those games: Ben Needs-A-Shorter-Last-Name, Tony Romo, Derek Anderson, Carson Palmer, the Manning brothers, Matt Hasselbeck, and Brett Favre.

[Kowal]

Opinions on specifics of the big division rivalry between Cleveland (now with more features!) and Pittsburgh this weekend?  As I stated earlier I <3 the Browns pretty hard, but I've got a sinking feeling that their momentum will be stopped pretty hard by the Steelers.  I predict the Browns will get a good start and actually hold a lead going in to the second half, but their defence is going to get too tired to play and Roethlisberger/Ward are going to shred the secondary like my cat mixing catnip and toilet paper.

I really feel like it's in CLE's best interests to sign a deal to keep Anderson, and trade off Brady Quinn while he's still worth something to someone.  Preferably in exchange for some defensive players.  I can think of more than one team in dire need of a good QB that has an exceptionally superb defense...  Chicago and Baltimore come to mind.

[Dante]

I can think of more than one team in dire need of a good QB that has an exceptionally superb defense...  Chicago and Baltimore come to mind.

Unfortunately, the Bears no longer qualify as an exceptional defense until we can can pressure the QB with just our front 4 (like we did the past two years. especially with Tommie Harris REALLY still hurting.  Losing Ian Scott to free agency for like $1.2 mil a year was dumb when they let him go and is now validated as even dumber than it sounded back then) and our secondary is in shambles (Trumain McBride <<<< Nathan Vashar & anyone they plug in at safety << Mike Brown).

Going by yards per game the Bears D is 27th out of 32 and going by points allowed they are 22 out of 32.  Now you see why we are 3-5. 

[Meddling Mike]

Opinions on specifics of the big division rivalry between Cleveland (now with more features!) and Pittsburgh this weekend?  As I stated earlier I <3 the Browns pretty hard, but I've got a sinking feeling that their momentum will be stopped pretty hard by the Steelers.  I predict the Browns will get a good start and actually hold a lead going in to the second half, but their defence is going to get too tired to play and Roethlisberger/Ward are going to shred the secondary like my cat mixing catnip and toilet paper.

I really feel like it's in CLE's best interests to sign a deal to keep Anderson, and trade off Brady Quinn while he's still worth something to someone.  Preferably in exchange for some defensive players.  I can think of more than one team in dire need of a good QB that has an exceptionally superb defense...  Chicago and Baltimore come to mind.

Didn't Cleveland get trashed by the Steelers in Cleveland to start off the season? The Browns have really grown up quickly as a team, but I don't know if it'll be enough to beat the Steelers at home. The Steelers manhandled the Ravens last week, but then again inconsistency has been the Steelers problem this year. They show flashes of brilliance that make you think they can keep up with the likes of the Patriots or the Colts, and then they lose to teams like the Broncos and the Cardinals. Maybe the Browns will surprise me.

[Apollyon]

I don't think that the Browns can beat the Steelers. The game to watch this weekend is Dallas and the Giants, although Jacksonville vs Tennessee should be good as well.

The night and MNF games both look awful. At the end of the year last year, I was hoping that it would be good, but after watching the Chargers be terrible this year, I don't think that they stand a chance. And San Fran vs Seattle looks like 2 teams fighting for a good pick in the draft next year.

[Meddling Mike]

And San Fran vs Seattle looks like 2 teams fighting for a good pick in the draft next year.

You realize the Seahawks are leading their division right now right?

[Apollyon]

Unfortunately, they are. Both West divisions and the AFC East are terrible, excluding the Patriots and possibly the Chargers.

[Kowal]

Didn't Cleveland get trashed by the Steelers in Cleveland to start off the season?

With Charlie Frye at the helm, even the Patriots would get owned by the Steelers.  When you take Derek Anderson out of the equation, you also take out Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, which have been the biggest weapons the Browns have to work with this season.

[kirdape3]

I'm pretty sure that Pittsburgh can stop the Browns enough in two ways:

1.  Running the football to keep the Browns offense off the field.  Can the Browns stop Parker smashing them?  Even if they do, can they stop Big Ben coming over the top?  The Steelers' offense is actually pretty solid, and the Browns defense is godawful.

2.  I have confidence in the ability of the #1 defense in football (and my #1 fantasy defense, second being the Giants) to get enough stops against the Browns offense to matter.  I have no confidence the other way; more to the point, I'm pretty sure that the Steelers defense versus the Browns offense is a good matchup for the Steelers.

[Meddling Mike]

Wow, I thought the Steelers were done, they fought back pretty hard. Rams beat the Saints? I didn't see that one coming...

[kirdape3]

Yeah, but apparently the Rams got to protect Bulger a little bit and he reminded people why he's Very Good (tm).  The NO defense isn't really that stellar and when you're upright at the end of a play and get to throw to Torry Holt, you should have a reasonable expectation of success.

Green Bay shutting out the Vikings was actually surprising too, simply because if Peterson's healthy he's good enough to at least put the ball in field goal range.

[Kowal]

I was extremely depressed at the end of the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game.  I was literally out of my seat cheering the vast majority of the game, but I really felt like whoever called those blitzes in the second half was out of their mind.  Between ignoring the fact Roethlisberger can actually run, and the fact that he's one of the worst QBs to blitz (have you SEEN that juggernaut break tackles?!) I think they should have been able to hold them in the second half like they did in the first.

The other major contribution to losing the game, imo, came from Jamal Lewis and the idea to keep handing him the ball.  He's not a good ground pounder like Reggie Bush or Joseph Addai.  He's a good bet for a gain of two or three to get a touchdown or a near-first down, but leading off 1st and 10 with him every time was pretty bad.  I think that, ideally, we would have seen less blitzing and more passing from both sides.

The only other input I have is that two receivers were covered VERY poorly the entire game:  Cleveland's Joe Jurevicious, and Pittsburgh's Hines Ward.  Unfortunately, JJ is no Hines Ward.

The missed kick at the end was simply heartbreaking.

[KnowmaD]

What the hell happened to the Vikings. shit.

But know, seriously, ever since the realization that pro football resembles the pro world wrestling org. Though both fun to get into.
I don't.   

[Meddling Mike]

And then the Patriots wrapped up homefield advantage and the bye in Week 10. I loved seeing Manning throw 6 Interceptions and Vinatieri missing wide. Even in the bye week the Patriots manage to win!

We beat the Steelers in Foxboro and that'll be the nail in the coffin for the bye AND homefield advantage.